A partitioned rump Ukraine without Black Sea access would be a basket case. That's why the Ukrainians holding Mykolaiv is critical. It's blocking the Russians from encircling & taking Odesa & then cutting off the rest of the Black Sea coastline. That would be a protracted fight.Kismet wrote: ↑Mon Mar 21, 2022 4:11 pmA tough choice for sure. However, the city is already mostly destroyed. Russians are reportedly sending busloads of residents to Russia against their will. Ironically, the city is populated with largely ethnic Russians who the invaders are killing in great numbers.old salt wrote: ↑Mon Mar 21, 2022 3:49 pm It is a tragic mistake for the Ukrainians not to surrender Mariupol. The city is lost, the Russians will now hammer it to rubble. It is their #1 target. It completes their land bridge to Crimea. If they can't also take Odessa quickly, a land bridge to Crimes might satisfy their attainable territorial ambitions & induce them to agree to a cease fire in place & a negotiated end to hostilities. If not, they'll reduce Mariupol to Aleppo, push on for Odessa & continue to shell Kyiv, realizing it's not worth the cost of capturing & holding the capital. The Russians have better supply lines to the southern front.
If not, this will continue to be a bloody, horrific stalemate & a contest of logistics & resupply chains.
How does Ukraine survive in a post-conflict timeframe with no coastal access to the Black Sea where most of their commerce is exported and imported?
imho, that's why a cease fire in place now, before more of the south is lost, is in Ukraine's long term interest for retaining as much territory as possible.