All Things Russia & Ukraine

[RedFromMI]

Good Twitter thread tonight from @WarInTheFuture - Major General (Just Retired!) Mick Ryan

It is 16 days since the Russian invasion of Ukraine began. Today I will examine the the importance of the adaptation battle in war, and how it is playing out in Ukraine. (Image - BBC)



As always, a shout out to those reporting on the Russian invasion. This includes @KofmanMichael @maxseddon @IAPonomarenko @RALee85 @shashj @DanLamothe @ikhurshudyan @IanPannell @DefenceHQ @TheStudyofWar @siobhan_ogrady
among others. Please follow them.

It is impossible for the military to anticipate every eventuality in war. There are too many scenarios to accurately predict wartime events. As such, a key virtue for military organizations in war must be adaptability to unexpected events.

In his famous essay, The Use and Abuse of Military History, Sir Michael Howard described the problem thus: “It is not surprising that there has often been a high proportion of failures among senior commanders at the beginning of any war.”

“These unfortunate men may either take too long to adjust themselves to reality…of they may have had their minds so far shaped by a lifetime of pure administration that they have ceased…to be soldiers.” Read it all here:https://t.co/MDf9iAlq7h

As Williamson Murray writes, because war “is interactive, both sides have the potential to adapt to the conflict at every level…thus the problems posed by the battlespace do not remain constant. More often than not they change with startling rapidity.”



The exploration of adaptation has resulted in the development of a range of concepts on how adaptation occurs & how it can be applied. In military literature, the best-known adaptive cycle is Boyd’s OODA (observe-orient-decide-act) loop.



Frank Hoffman has also proposed a model for military adaptation which he calls Organisational Learning Capacity. It has four parts: leadership; organisational culture; learning mechanisms; and, dissemination mechanisms.

So, effective military institutions need to adapt in war, at every level, and share lessons broadly to ensure an entire force can learn from both success and failure. Military institutions must win the adaptation battle at the strategic, operational & tactical levels.

What kind of adaptations have we witnessed in this war so far?

From the Russians, they had to adapt their campaign within the first 48 hours because their attempt at a lightening conquest of Ukraine failed. This was most obvious in the north and the attempts to capture Kyiv. They had to adapt their campaign to what we are now seeing.

Further, they have experienced major challenges in the ability to coordinate combined arms warfare on the ground - it has seen them advance much slower, and sustain more casualties, than anticipated. They have therefore adapted to rely more on firepower than maneuver.

For the Ukrainians, they have clearly recognised that the Russians have poor rear area security. They have adapted their operations to fight the Russians in the rear areas. It is hard for the Russians to advance when they have to constantly look over their shoulders.

The Ukrainians also appear to have adapted based on the big inflow of western crew served anti-tank and anti-aircraft weapons. This isn’t to say they did not have them previously. But it appears these now have greater emphasis in Ukrainian operations.

Finally, the Ukrainians have adapted in the info environment. Not only did they seize the initiative at the start of the war, they have learned and evolved in a tactical, operational and strategic influence fight against Russian misinformation. (Image - @IAPonomarenko)



There will be many other adaptations on the ground we are not seeing. In due course, we will need to study other military adaptations – from both sides – that will emerge.

Finally, what military adaptations might we see in the near future in Ukraine?

The Russians are clearly still attempting to improve their ability to plan and coordinate large scale ground maneuver. We may see them adapt their communications to be more secure, improve logistics, and replace incompetent commanders to improve tactical performance.

We may see increased Russian operations in the west as they adapt their overall campaign. They will need to halt, or severely restrict the flow of western arms and other aid, into Ukraine. This will force Ukraine to adapt is defensive campaign.

From the Ukrainians, we may see an #adaptation to their overall scheme of defence where they start focussing more on support to insurgent forces in areas already captured by the Russians. At the same time they will need to sustain conventional operations.

The Ukrainians are also adapting their tactical force structure to absorb foreign combatants and support personnel. Given training, language and cultural differences, this will be a significant adaptation for them to manage.

As I note in #WarTransformed, military organizations are never at a steady state. The rapid pace of change means that they will be adapting at each level concurrently and doing so constantly. This adaptation battle is what we are seeing play out now in Ukraine.

There are other good references on this topic. Here are just three of my favourites – among many – on the topic of military adaptation.



Adaptation is a central component of war, and a 'learning culture' is key to institutional adaptation. There will be more adaptations to observe in Ukraine in the days & weeks ahead. I will take a break tomorrow, and return with my daily thread on Monday. End.

[MDlaxfan76]

His f*cking nation and freedom is at stake; he is speaking and lobbying for generations. I can't blame him for playing every card, every Zimmerman Telegram, he finds lying around:

https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status ... 5327253504

I can’t either!

My point is—-he has to know what it takes to get Putin to stop. Bravery won’t do it, as admirable as it is.

What’s best for his people. If he keeps that at the front of his mind, he’ll find a way to get Putin out

... I don't think people here are considering what Zelensky's people will think of him if he surrenders to the Russians. He doesn't have the ability to surrender to Putin. His countrymen will continue without him -- while cursing him and his family. There is a succession plan in place.

I don't know that he's worried about what people will think of him. No matter his decisions. -- this was not my point. My point was the second sentence. Zelensky doesn't care about what people think, but he is aware that they will not follow him into surrender.

I do think you're right that the Ukrainians won't accept any sort of surrender and would fight on regardless. I think his "bravery" is more a reflection of the way the Ukrainians have been thinking about Russia for the past 8 years than that's he's leading them down this path. He's simply embodying that view. Representing Ukrainians. Who would rather fight and die than go back to the Russian yoke.

Made in 2014: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NOCbW1hc6Ng

Agreed.

[old salt]

Actually enjoyed Edge of War, although I felt like it was an effort to revisit and recast Chamberlain in a more positive light. But good story, well told.

My concern is the West and liberal democracies. If they cannot stay firm against Russia — and you see the slow deterioration of support here, the slow loss of unity on this — they won’t survive. I know, dour and maybe unreasonable. But we are at a terrible crossroads and must make something good from it.

I take hope from the following :

-- the poor performance of the Russian military
-- the surprising & inspirational performance of the Ukrainian military
-- the horrified reaction of the West. It will subside somewhat, but this will not soon be forgotten.

In a flash, Putin has transported us back 7 decades in time. A new Iron Curtain has descended along NATO's E flank, ...it may sub-divide Ukraine.
I doubt that trade, travel & diplomacy between Russia & the West can be restored, so long as Putin remains in power.
Recall how little trade there was with the USSR at the height of the Cold War. We could be back there, as soon as the EU weans itself from Russian energy. We need to help keep them moving in that direction. Not just with sanctions but with embargoes & travel restrictions.

I am depressed & disappointed that so much of what we accomplished with the Cold War has started to unravel,
but I think we can staunch the bleeding & prevail in this one too.

[a fan]

His f*cking nation and freedom is at stake; he is speaking and lobbying for generations. I can't blame him for playing every card, every Zimmerman Telegram, he finds lying around:

https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status ... 5327253504

I can’t either!

My point is—-he has to know what it takes to get Putin to stop. Bravery won’t do it, as admirable as it is.

What’s best for his people. If he keeps that at the front of his mind, he’ll find a way to get Putin out

... I don't think people here are considering what Zelensky's people will think of him if he surrenders to the Russians. He doesn't have the ability to surrender to Putin.

I never said a word about surrendering. We all know that Ukraine won't fall.....Russia simply can't hold the entire country. That's not an option for Putin.

What I'm talking about is: is Zelensky smart enough to give Putin his BS face saving nonsense he can take to his people and say "see, I made this happen".

I'm back to my suggestion of Ukraine pledging to remain neutral. Pretty obvious to Putin and the rest of us that Ukraine doesn't NEED NATO. They'll get along just fine with with armaments from the US et. al.

So that's the deal-----pledge neutrality, Putin leaves. I have NO IDEA what else would get Putin to back off. Death?

[jhu72]

I've found way less persuasive some of the reporting bolstering the contention that the MiG's would not be helpful in combatting the Air Force attacks, because so much of the destruction is being done by missiles and artillery. I do understand the relative utility argument, but seems to me that the ability to contest the skies, especially in western Ukraine where people are fleeing and resupply is coming from is really important to sustaining the effort successfully. It's not an either/or.

... agree with you on the MiG issue. I suspect they will turn up there quietly.

Disregard the escalation issue. Do either of you dispute DoD's contention that the UAF is not using the Mig 29's they have & why they are not.
If the UAF wanted to contest the skies, why have they not done so with their Mig 29's & more capable SU-27's.

They are barely flying what they have, but yet they keep asking for the Mig29s. They aren't stupid, they must have their own reasons. Spare parts? There is more going on here than we know.

Send a list of spare parts needed. Easier to get them in than flying the entire plane there.

... agree. So why do the Ukrainians keep asking? I don't think this is just trying to keep pressure on the allies for support given the support we are known to be supplying. Asking without a valid reason backfires ultimately. Ukrainians aren't stupid.

Zelensky is trying to drag us into the fight. That's why he keeps agitating for things he knows we can't do. He knows that is the only way to end it without destroying his country & further devastating his population. He's scapegoating the US so his population won't blame him. No matter how much we do (short of full scale military intervention), it will never be enough & the US will be the villain for not doing more.

... I had considered this. It is plausible. But at this time, I am not buying it. There is more going on than we know I believe.

... Zelensky is trying to have us engage further, that is clear. The entire Ukrainian population is doing that. What I don't buy is he is doing this to scapegoat the US!

[kramerica.inc]

With all due respect, MD, are you an undercover moderator? Have you been tasked by Matt to steer conversations to amicable ends?

Because your repeated sharing on the worth/value of posts/people in a mod-free forum is quite simply, not called for, not needed, and off-topic.

And I do say that with the utmost sincerity and respect. And with the understanding of the irony of me correcting (moderating) people for, well, moderating people.

And I'll take that critique with the sincerity, respect and irony noted.

No, I don't have any more right than anyone else to ask that folks have civil discussions on the thread topics, especially ones, that at least IMO, call for seriousness and not partisan motivated screeds.

Plenty of room for disagreement in constructive, civil discussions.

You're free to disagree of course, but my view is that those who contribute to the discussions in some sort of constructive way are far more preferred than those simply trying to incite anger.

And I have zero power to enforce any of my views on civil discussions...but I'll continue to express them, hopefully as politely as I can muster.

No offense meant. Just noticed your tenor change and be much more pronounced in the past few weeks.

[old salt]

I've found way less persuasive some of the reporting bolstering the contention that the MiG's would not be helpful in combatting the Air Force attacks, because so much of the destruction is being done by missiles and artillery. I do understand the relative utility argument, but seems to me that the ability to contest the skies, especially in western Ukraine where people are fleeing and resupply is coming from is really important to sustaining the effort successfully. It's not an either/or.

... agree with you on the MiG issue. I suspect they will turn up there quietly.

Disregard the escalation issue. Do either of you dispute DoD's contention that the UAF is not using the Mig 29's they have & why they are not.
If the UAF wanted to contest the skies, why have they not done so with their Mig 29's & more capable SU-27's.

They are barely flying what they have, but yet they keep asking for the Mig29s. They aren't stupid, they must have their own reasons. Spare parts? There is more going on here than we know.

Send a list of spare parts needed. Easier to get them in than flying the entire plane there.

... agree. So why do the Ukrainians keep asking? I don't think this is just trying to keep pressure on the allies for support given the support we are known to be supplying. Asking without a valid reason backfires ultimately. Ukrainians aren't stupid.

Zelensky is trying to drag us into the fight. That's why he keeps agitating for things he knows we can't do. He knows that is the only way to end it without destroying his country & further devastating his population. He's scapegoating the US so his population won't blame him. No matter how much we do (short of full scale military intervention), it will never be enough & the US will be the villain for not doing more.

... I had considered this. It is plausible. But at this time, I am not buying it. There is more going on than we know I believe.

... Zelensky is trying to have us engage further, that is clear. The entire Ukrainian population is doing that. What I don't buy is he is doing this to scapegoat the US!

You don't speak for the Ukrainian people. The only ones we hear are the few who the tv editors show us. Zelensky assured his people that Putin would not invade, trapping millions of them who could have left the country or depopulated the cities. Had he not raised the Mig issue, they could have sneaked them into the 2 airfields in W Ukraine before they were bombed. If this ends badly, he'll blame the US for encouraging him, then not coming through in the crunch, ...& he'll be right. We should not have given him false hope. We should have pushed him to the Minsk table & let Macron & Merkel make a deal for him. He would have had to renounce a claim to Crimea & Donbass, agree to remain neutral & not join NATO & the EU. He'll be lucky to get that much now, if he survives.

[jhu72]

His f*cking nation and freedom is at stake; he is speaking and lobbying for generations. I can't blame him for playing every card, every Zimmerman Telegram, he finds lying around:

https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status ... 5327253504

I can’t either!

My point is—-he has to know what it takes to get Putin to stop. Bravery won’t do it, as admirable as it is.

What’s best for his people. If he keeps that at the front of his mind, he’ll find a way to get Putin out

... I don't think people here are considering what Zelensky's people will think of him if he surrenders to the Russians. He doesn't have the ability to surrender to Putin.

I never said a word about surrendering. We all know that Ukraine won't fall.....Russia simply can't hold the entire country. That's not an option for Putin.

What I'm talking about is: is Zelensky smart enough to give him his BS face saving nonsense he can take to his people and say "see, I made this happen".

I'm back to my suggestion of Ukraine pledging to remain neutral. Pretty obvious to Putin and the rest of us that Ukraine doesn't NEED NATO. They'll get along just fine with with armaments from the US et. al.

So that's the deal-----pledge neutrality, Putin leaves. I have NO IDEA what else would get Putin to back off. Death?

... I was not saying you were suggesting surrender. Simply, my point, he is highly limited in what he can accept. I highly doubt he has the ability to give Putin anything in terms of territory. He may be able to agree no NATO for some limited period of time, or remaining neutral, he will not agree to remaining militarily weak, remaining on the vine so Putin can pick Ukraine off at a later date. I am skeptical that Putin will accept any of that. He knows the world will see that as a loss for Putin. It really isn't a face saver, unless Putin can convince himself it is.

I really think the best solution all round is putting Putin down, covertly, preferably in concert with Russian oligarchs and/or military and/or security forces and/or bureaucracy. Waiting for a people's revolt will probably take to long. We, the NATO allies, need to keep maximum pressure on the people who could be motivated to give us what we want.

Putin already has jailed some of the high level folks in the security forces he does not trust. He will likely kill them. This actually helps us put pressure on others - they see where this goes. Two can play at the disinformation game, we can fu*k with Putin's mind, causing him to distrust people who have done nothing to deserve it and others in the bureaucracy will know it. Even the Chinese can understand the logic. The world cannot afford to allow a lunatic like Putin to stay in power.

[jhu72]

I've found way less persuasive some of the reporting bolstering the contention that the MiG's would not be helpful in combatting the Air Force attacks, because so much of the destruction is being done by missiles and artillery. I do understand the relative utility argument, but seems to me that the ability to contest the skies, especially in western Ukraine where people are fleeing and resupply is coming from is really important to sustaining the effort successfully. It's not an either/or.

... agree with you on the MiG issue. I suspect they will turn up there quietly.

Disregard the escalation issue. Do either of you dispute DoD's contention that the UAF is not using the Mig 29's they have & why they are not.
If the UAF wanted to contest the skies, why have they not done so with their Mig 29's & more capable SU-27's.

They are barely flying what they have, but yet they keep asking for the Mig29s. They aren't stupid, they must have their own reasons. Spare parts? There is more going on here than we know.

Send a list of spare parts needed. Easier to get them in than flying the entire plane there.

... agree. So why do the Ukrainians keep asking? I don't think this is just trying to keep pressure on the allies for support given the support we are known to be supplying. Asking without a valid reason backfires ultimately. Ukrainians aren't stupid.

Zelensky is trying to drag us into the fight. That's why he keeps agitating for things he knows we can't do. He knows that is the only way to end it without destroying his country & further devastating his population. He's scapegoating the US so his population won't blame him. No matter how much we do (short of full scale military intervention), it will never be enough & the US will be the villain for not doing more.

... I had considered this. It is plausible. But at this time, I am not buying it. There is more going on than we know I believe.

... Zelensky is trying to have us engage further, that is clear. The entire Ukrainian population is doing that. What I don't buy is he is doing this to scapegoat the US!

You don't speak for the Ukrainian people. The only ones we hear are the few who the tv editors show us. Zelensky assured his people that Putin would not invade, trapping millions of them who could have left the country or depopulated the cities. Had he not raised the Mig issue, they could have sneaked them into the 2 airfields in W Ukraine before they were bombed. If this ends badly, he'll blame the US for encouraging him, then not coming through in the crunch, ...& he'll be right. We should not have given him false hope. We should have pushed him to the Minsk table & let Macron & Merkel make a deal for him. He would have had to renounce a claim to Crimea & Donbass, agree to remain neutral & not join NATO & the EU. He'll be lucky to get that much now, if he survives.

Lots of coulda - woulda - shouldas. Zelensky is not really in control, the Ukrainian people are.

... if this ends badly, Zelensky is dead. Scapegoating the US buys him nothing. Zelensky knows this.

[old salt]

I've found way less persuasive some of the reporting bolstering the contention that the MiG's would not be helpful in combatting the Air Force attacks, because so much of the destruction is being done by missiles and artillery. I do understand the relative utility argument, but seems to me that the ability to contest the skies, especially in western Ukraine where people are fleeing and resupply is coming from is really important to sustaining the effort successfully. It's not an either/or.

... agree with you on the MiG issue. I suspect they will turn up there quietly.

Disregard the escalation issue. Do either of you dispute DoD's contention that the UAF is not using the Mig 29's they have & why they are not.
If the UAF wanted to contest the skies, why have they not done so with their Mig 29's & more capable SU-27's.

They are barely flying what they have, but yet they keep asking for the Mig29s. They aren't stupid, they must have their own reasons. Spare parts? There is more going on here than we know.

Send a list of spare parts needed. Easier to get them in than flying the entire plane there.

... agree. So why do the Ukrainians keep asking? I don't think this is just trying to keep pressure on the allies for support given the support we are known to be supplying. Asking without a valid reason backfires ultimately. Ukrainians aren't stupid.

Zelensky is trying to drag us into the fight. That's why he keeps agitating for things he knows we can't do. He knows that is the only way to end it without destroying his country & further devastating his population. He's scapegoating the US so his population won't blame him. No matter how much we do (short of full scale military intervention), it will never be enough & the US will be the villain for not doing more.

... I had considered this. It is plausible. But at this time, I am not buying it. There is more going on than we know I believe.

... Zelensky is trying to have us engage further, that is clear. The entire Ukrainian population is doing that. What I don't buy is he is doing this to scapegoat the US!

You don't speak for the Ukrainian people. The only ones we hear are the few who the tv editors show us. Zelensky assured his people that Putin would not invade, trapping millions of them who could have left the country or depopulated the cities. Had he not raised the Mig issue, they could have sneaked them into the 2 airfields in W Ukraine before they were bombed. If this ends badly, he'll blame the US for encouraging him, then not coming through in the crunch, ...& he'll be right. We should not have given him false hope. We should have pushed him to the Minsk table & let Macron & Merkel make a deal for him. He would have had to renounce a claim to Crimea & Donbass, agree to remain neutral & not join NATO & the EU. He'll be lucky to get that much now, if he survives.

Lots of coulda - woulda - shouldas. Zelensky is not really in control, the Ukrainian people are.

... if this ends badly, Zelensky is dead. Scapegoating the US buys him nothing. Zelensky knows this.

The Ukrainian people are just beginning to experience how bad it can get. It doesn't have to end that way. Zelensky transitions from Churchill to DeGaulle. He & his war cabinet relocate to Lviv & lead the war effort from there. Pull his troops out of Kiev & other cities, continue the fight from the areas the Russians do not hold. Negotiate a cease fire in place & safe zone in W Ukraine, sparing the civilian population, allowing in humanitarian aid & refugee corridors to the W. This has been done in the Balkans, Syria, Libya & Africa. Russia was involved in the Balkans & Syria. Yes it's ethnic cleansing, to an extent, but it spares the population. Putin will treat well the ethnic Russians who remain in the E. Refugees who flow W will be safe in refugee camps or some will resettle in W Ukraine. You end up with a temporary de facto E & W Ukraine, just like E & W post war occupied Germany. It's a bad outcome, but better than the alternative -- turning the country into a hellscape like Syria, Bosnia, Kosovo or Libya. At least you'd have a free W Ukraine for ethnic Ukrainians & ethnic Russians who prefer to remain Ukrainian citizens. Negotiations can drag on forever, once there's a cease fire. Keep the Cold War punishments on Russia until Putin is forced to retire to his dacha, or arrested & dragged to the ICC.

[Farfromgeneva]

Deutsche Bank Joins Exodus From Russia
By Ben Dummett
SHARE

The logo of Deutsche Bank on the roof of the bank's Moscow building.SERGEI KARPUKHIN/REUTERS
Deutsche Bank AG said it is unwinding its operations in Russia, the latest major bank to retreat from the country.

“In line with our legal and regulatory obligations, we are in the process of winding down our remaining business…[and] there won’t be any new business in Russia,” Deutsche Bank said late Friday.

The Frankfurt-based lender serves Russian companies with international businesses and local subsidiaries of multinationals. Its planned retreat from the country follows similar moves this week by JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

Those steps are part of a broader exodus by Western companies across sectors as U.S. and European governments move to isolate Russia from the global economy.

Deutsche Bank has limited involvement in Russia and indicated earlier this week that it was tightly managing its exposure, while evaluating and monitoring the second- and third-order effects of the current situation, including from sanctions and wider cybersecurity risk.

The bank has said its Russian exposure includes $1.55 billion in gross loans to companies as of December. That level drops to less than $700 million when taking into account guarantees and collaterals and its loans accounted for around 0.3% of its gross loan book.

Investors have sold European bank stocks since war broke out, worried the rise in oil prices and uncertainty over the conflict’s outcome could undermine consumer confidence and corporate investment. Deutsche Bank’s latest move doesn’t protect its business from those wider invasion-related concerns.

Deutsche Bank also has 1,500 employees at a technology center in the country, accounting for 5% of its internal and external technology workforce. The bank has said it has stress-tested the ability of other centers, including in Asia, to cover for the Russian operations.

[ardilla secreta]

3/11/22
Queue in front of the office of Turkish Airlines on Valovaya Street in Moscow.

B20544C6-071F-4D62-B797-4B5D9A3E459D.jpeg (89.7 KiB) Viewed 721 times

[Kismet]

Rooskies declares that arms shipments on the ground from NATO Eastern Flank into Ukraine will be considered legitimate targets for Russian airstrikes. No idea how they discern arms shipments in any legiitmate way.

I'm beginning to think expanded war with NATO may be on the table. Not good.

On the other hand,, Putin just arrested a number of high level security people Can only hope that others inside the government starting thinking that they are not going down with the ship with some help from oligarchs. Don't think the Chinese are going to act in any material way unless they cook up a deal with a potential successor.

Interesting piece on Mykhailo Fedorov, Ukraine’s youngest minister who is using digital tools to wage economic war on Russia which might be winnable

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/12/tech ... gital.html

Analysis of Russian military

https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/ ... in-ukraine

[tech37]

His f*cking nation and freedom is at stake; he is speaking and lobbying for generations. I can't blame him for playing every card, every Zimmerman Telegram, he finds lying around:

https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status ... 5327253504

I can’t either!

My point is—-he has to know what it takes to get Putin to stop. Bravery won’t do it, as admirable as it is.

What’s best for his people. If he keeps that at the front of his mind, he’ll find a way to get Putin out

... I don't think people here are considering what Zelensky's people will think of him if he surrenders to the Russians. He doesn't have the ability to surrender to Putin.

I never said a word about surrendering. We all know that Ukraine won't fall.....Russia simply can't hold the entire country. That's not an option for Putin.

What I'm talking about is: is Zelensky smart enough to give Putin his BS face saving nonsense he can take to his people and say "see, I made this happen".

I'm back to my suggestion of Ukraine pledging to remain neutral. Pretty obvious to Putin and the rest of us that Ukraine doesn't NEED NATO. They'll get along just fine with with armaments from the US et. al.

So that's the deal-----pledge neutrality, Putin leaves. I have NO IDEA what else would get Putin to back off. Death?

As much as it pains me to admit a fan is right on this one. BTW, he's most likely not overjoyed to have me in agreement.

A couple weeks ago I suggested a stick and carrot approach, simply put, slam Putin with sanctions but then provide assurances that would allow for his "face-saving" exit. IMHO, the only practical solution to avoid escalation and WW3. The time for that is now. That window of opportunity may be quickly closing though.

Say NO to a No Fly Zone!

[Farfromgeneva]

I've found way less persuasive some of the reporting bolstering the contention that the MiG's would not be helpful in combatting the Air Force attacks, because so much of the destruction is being done by missiles and artillery. I do understand the relative utility argument, but seems to me that the ability to contest the skies, especially in western Ukraine where people are fleeing and resupply is coming from is really important to sustaining the effort successfully. It's not an either/or.

... agree with you on the MiG issue. I suspect they will turn up there quietly.

Disregard the escalation issue. Do either of you dispute DoD's contention that the UAF is not using the Mig 29's they have & why they are not.
If the UAF wanted to contest the skies, why have they not done so with their Mig 29's & more capable SU-27's.

They are barely flying what they have, but yet they keep asking for the Mig29s. They aren't stupid, they must have their own reasons. Spare parts? There is more going on here than we know.

Send a list of spare parts needed. Easier to get them in than flying the entire plane there.

... agree. So why do the Ukrainians keep asking? I don't think this is just trying to keep pressure on the allies for support given the support we are known to be supplying. Asking without a valid reason backfires ultimately. Ukrainians aren't stupid.

Zelensky is trying to drag us into the fight. That's why he keeps agitating for things he knows we can't do. He knows that is the only way to end it without destroying his country & further devastating his population. He's scapegoating the US so his population won't blame him. No matter how much we do (short of full scale military intervention), it will never be enough & the US will be the villain for not doing more.

... I had considered this. It is plausible. But at this time, I am not buying it. There is more going on than we know I believe.

... Zelensky is trying to have us engage further, that is clear. The entire Ukrainian population is doing that. What I don't buy is he is doing this to scapegoat the US!

You don't speak for the Ukrainian people. The only ones we hear are the few who the tv editors show us. Zelensky assured his people that Putin would not invade, trapping millions of them who could have left the country or depopulated the cities. Had he not raised the Mig issue, they could have sneaked them into the 2 airfields in W Ukraine before they were bombed. If this ends badly, he'll blame the US for encouraging him, then not coming through in the crunch, ...& he'll be right. We should not have given him false hope. We should have pushed him to the Minsk table & let Macron & Merkel make a deal for him. He would have had to renounce a claim to Crimea & Donbass, agree to remain neutral & not join NATO & the EU. He'll be lucky to get that much now, if he survives.

Nor do you. Or for Zelensky.

[Typical Lax Dad]

I've found way less persuasive some of the reporting bolstering the contention that the MiG's would not be helpful in combatting the Air Force attacks, because so much of the destruction is being done by missiles and artillery. I do understand the relative utility argument, but seems to me that the ability to contest the skies, especially in western Ukraine where people are fleeing and resupply is coming from is really important to sustaining the effort successfully. It's not an either/or.

... agree with you on the MiG issue. I suspect they will turn up there quietly.

Disregard the escalation issue. Do either of you dispute DoD's contention that the UAF is not using the Mig 29's they have & why they are not.
If the UAF wanted to contest the skies, why have they not done so with their Mig 29's & more capable SU-27's.

They are barely flying what they have, but yet they keep asking for the Mig29s. They aren't stupid, they must have their own reasons. Spare parts? There is more going on here than we know.

Send a list of spare parts needed. Easier to get them in than flying the entire plane there.

... agree. So why do the Ukrainians keep asking? I don't think this is just trying to keep pressure on the allies for support given the support we are known to be supplying. Asking without a valid reason backfires ultimately. Ukrainians aren't stupid.

Zelensky is trying to drag us into the fight. That's why he keeps agitating for things he knows we can't do. He knows that is the only way to end it without destroying his country & further devastating his population. He's scapegoating the US so his population won't blame him. No matter how much we do (short of full scale military intervention), it will never be enough & the US will be the villain for not doing more.

... I had considered this. It is plausible. But at this time, I am not buying it. There is more going on than we know I believe.

... Zelensky is trying to have us engage further, that is clear. The entire Ukrainian population is doing that. What I don't buy is he is doing this to scapegoat the US!

You don't speak for the Ukrainian people. The only ones we hear are the few who the tv editors show us. Zelensky assured his people that Putin would not invade, trapping millions of them who could have left the country or depopulated the cities. Had he not raised the Mig issue, they could have sneaked them into the 2 airfields in W Ukraine before they were bombed. If this ends badly, he'll blame the US for encouraging him, then not coming through in the crunch, ...& he'll be right. We should not have given him false hope. We should have pushed him to the Minsk table & let Macron & Merkel make a deal for him. He would have had to renounce a claim to Crimea & Donbass, agree to remain neutral & not join NATO & the EU. He'll be lucky to get that much now, if he survives.

[Typical Lax Dad]

I've found way less persuasive some of the reporting bolstering the contention that the MiG's would not be helpful in combatting the Air Force attacks, because so much of the destruction is being done by missiles and artillery. I do understand the relative utility argument, but seems to me that the ability to contest the skies, especially in western Ukraine where people are fleeing and resupply is coming from is really important to sustaining the effort successfully. It's not an either/or.

... agree with you on the MiG issue. I suspect they will turn up there quietly.

Disregard the escalation issue. Do either of you dispute DoD's contention that the UAF is not using the Mig 29's they have & why they are not.
If the UAF wanted to contest the skies, why have they not done so with their Mig 29's & more capable SU-27's.

They are barely flying what they have, but yet they keep asking for the Mig29s. They aren't stupid, they must have their own reasons. Spare parts? There is more going on here than we know.

Send a list of spare parts needed. Easier to get them in than flying the entire plane there.

... agree. So why do the Ukrainians keep asking? I don't think this is just trying to keep pressure on the allies for support given the support we are known to be supplying. Asking without a valid reason backfires ultimately. Ukrainians aren't stupid.

Zelensky is trying to drag us into the fight. That's why he keeps agitating for things he knows we can't do. He knows that is the only way to end it without destroying his country & further devastating his population. He's scapegoating the US so his population won't blame him. No matter how much we do (short of full scale military intervention), it will never be enough & the US will be the villain for not doing more.

... I had considered this. It is plausible. But at this time, I am not buying it. There is more going on than we know I believe.

... Zelensky is trying to have us engage further, that is clear. The entire Ukrainian population is doing that. What I don't buy is he is doing this to scapegoat the US!

You don't speak for the Ukrainian people. The only ones we hear are the few who the tv editors show us. Zelensky assured his people that Putin would not invade, trapping millions of them who could have left the country or depopulated the cities. Had he not raised the Mig issue, they could have sneaked them into the 2 airfields in W Ukraine before they were bombed. If this ends badly, he'll blame the US for encouraging him, then not coming through in the crunch, ...& he'll be right. We should not have given him false hope. We should have pushed him to the Minsk table & let Macron & Merkel make a deal for him. He would have had to renounce a claim to Crimea & Donbass, agree to remain neutral & not join NATO & the EU. He'll be lucky to get that much now, if he survives.

Nor do you. Or for Zelensky.

Like an old ball coach…. They are all undefeated in their new roles…. More blame the USA. Standing up to Russia doesn’t matter anymore. It was Old Soviet’s tag line. He scrubbed it…… the Soviet way.

[jhu72]

6 ton drone flies from war zone and crashes in Croatia.

[MDlaxfan76]

With all due respect, MD, are you an undercover moderator? Have you been tasked by Matt to steer conversations to amicable ends?

Because your repeated sharing on the worth/value of posts/people in a mod-free forum is quite simply, not called for, not needed, and off-topic.

And I do say that with the utmost sincerity and respect. And with the understanding of the irony of me correcting (moderating) people for, well, moderating people.

And I'll take that critique with the sincerity, respect and irony noted.

No, I don't have any more right than anyone else to ask that folks have civil discussions on the thread topics, especially ones, that at least IMO, call for seriousness and not partisan motivated screeds.

Plenty of room for disagreement in constructive, civil discussions.

You're free to disagree of course, but my view is that those who contribute to the discussions in some sort of constructive way are far more preferred than those simply trying to incite anger.

And I have zero power to enforce any of my views on civil discussions...but I'll continue to express them, hopefully as politely as I can muster.

No offense meant. Just noticed your tenor change and be much more pronounced in the past few weeks.

Yes, especially on this thread.

[jhu72]

I've found way less persuasive some of the reporting bolstering the contention that the MiG's would not be helpful in combatting the Air Force attacks, because so much of the destruction is being done by missiles and artillery. I do understand the relative utility argument, but seems to me that the ability to contest the skies, especially in western Ukraine where people are fleeing and resupply is coming from is really important to sustaining the effort successfully. It's not an either/or.

... agree with you on the MiG issue. I suspect they will turn up there quietly.

Disregard the escalation issue. Do either of you dispute DoD's contention that the UAF is not using the Mig 29's they have & why they are not.
If the UAF wanted to contest the skies, why have they not done so with their Mig 29's & more capable SU-27's.

They are barely flying what they have, but yet they keep asking for the Mig29s. They aren't stupid, they must have their own reasons. Spare parts? There is more going on here than we know.

Send a list of spare parts needed. Easier to get them in than flying the entire plane there.

... agree. So why do the Ukrainians keep asking? I don't think this is just trying to keep pressure on the allies for support given the support we are known to be supplying. Asking without a valid reason backfires ultimately. Ukrainians aren't stupid.

Zelensky is trying to drag us into the fight. That's why he keeps agitating for things he knows we can't do. He knows that is the only way to end it without destroying his country & further devastating his population. He's scapegoating the US so his population won't blame him. No matter how much we do (short of full scale military intervention), it will never be enough & the US will be the villain for not doing more.

... I had considered this. It is plausible. But at this time, I am not buying it. There is more going on than we know I believe.

... Zelensky is trying to have us engage further, that is clear. The entire Ukrainian population is doing that. What I don't buy is he is doing this to scapegoat the US!

You don't speak for the Ukrainian people. The only ones we hear are the few who the tv editors show us. Zelensky assured his people that Putin would not invade, trapping millions of them who could have left the country or depopulated the cities. Had he not raised the Mig issue, they could have sneaked them into the 2 airfields in W Ukraine before they were bombed. If this ends badly, he'll blame the US for encouraging him, then not coming through in the crunch, ...& he'll be right. We should not have given him false hope. We should have pushed him to the Minsk table & let Macron & Merkel make a deal for him. He would have had to renounce a claim to Crimea & Donbass, agree to remain neutral & not join NATO & the EU. He'll be lucky to get that much now, if he survives.

Lots of coulda - woulda - shouldas. Zelensky is not really in control, the Ukrainian people are.

... if this ends badly, Zelensky is dead. Scapegoating the US buys him nothing. Zelensky knows this.

The Ukrainian people are just beginning to experience how bad it can get. It doesn't have to end that way. Zelensky transitions from Churchill to DeGaulle. He & his war cabinet relocate to Lviv & lead the war effort from there. Pull his troops out of Kiev & other cities, continue the fight from the areas the Russians do not hold. Negotiate a cease fire in place & safe zone in W Ukraine, sparing the civilian population, allowing in humanitarian aid & refugee corridors to the W. This has been done in the Balkans, Syria, Libya & Africa. Russia was involved in the Balkans & Syria. Yes it's ethnic cleansing, to an extent, but it spares the population. Putin will treat well the ethnic Russians who remain in the E. Refugees who flow W will be safe in refugee camps or some will resettle in W Ukraine. You end up with a temporary de facto E & W Ukraine, just like E & W post war occupied Germany. It's a bad outcome, but better than the alternative -- turning the country into a hellscape like Syria, Bosnia, Kosovo or Libya. At least you'd have a free W Ukraine for ethnic Ukrainians & ethnic Russians who prefer to remain Ukrainian citizens. Negotiations can drag on forever, once there's a cease fire. Keep the Cold War punishments on Russia until Putin is forced to retire to his dacha, or arrested & dragged to the ICC.

... yup, all of this is possible theoretically, if the Ukrainian people will accept it. But they say they won't - they will fight forever, they will resist. This could just be bravado. I suspect not in a very very large number of cases. My point again is, the west really can't make this happen, it is not our choice. We would have to disarm them (cut off their supplies). Many I have a feeling would continue to resist. These Ukrainians seem to be Spartans.

Note, I am not sure those Russians in the east will be treated so well, will be compliant. Indications are they will also fight. They certainly have so far. That is probably Putin's best chance for a compliant population, but I don't think it is assured.