Potential New Top 20

[MDlaxfan76]

MD, don’t recall your “ Denver only beat Georgetown because of Baptiste” posts or the “if Irelan didn’t win 38 of 42 in NCAAs Hoyas had em beat in every other category.” Posts.

I don’t disagree with you as I was on Georgetown thread right after ND game saying you can’t rely on heroic efforts from X and Goalie. And there is a lot to clean up no doubt. But interesting to note the narrative now vs the quiet then.

You're right, I'd never have said "only".

I played this sport, coached it as well, and I'd be crazy not to have learned that you need all the pieces to be solid, and some special, to win the tough games against the best competition.

I'd have GT right there in the hunt in the top 5...but that's because they have solid everywhere (far as I can tell) and some special.

Season is extremely young.

[rolldodge]

again, fair enough.

BTW, I like Jacksonville's wins, but don't give Hop that much credit for having beaten them super early. It will certainly be interesting to see if Jacksonville can keep it up.

I guess I look at GT vs ND and though they won behind superstar goaltending, which I love, and a very dominant FO performance, they were absolutely whupped in every other category, shots, GB's, TO's...excluding FO's, which GT won 21-8, ND out ground balled GT 29-9...and GT had 20 TO's. Outshot on goal 35-25.

So, I wonder how dominant they actually can be down the stretch...but hey, superstar goaltending and a strong FO can take you far!

I would agree with you IF they had over-relied on goaltending and faceoffs in all of their wins. They have won in a number of ways so far and ALSO have superstar goaltending and a very underrated FOGO when they need it.

Yes, ND outplayed them in most statistics, BUT they had 39.0% offensive efficiency and 42.1% shooting percentage.

Having said that, they are far from a consensus #1, but they are definitely top 5 and so far top 3. How deep they can go in the playoffs is a question that is still a long way away.

Totally agree with that assessment.

McElroy was also 58% against Penn and 68% vs Hop, so while not the only factor, that's a huge one.

And they were 14-8 on FO's against Penn...2 goal game.

Those two drivers certainly matter a ton.

Yes, they do, and top team perform well in those categories. The only time I think Gtown has over relied on McElroy was the 4th quarter of the ND game where he had 11 of his 24 saves (!!!!). Top teams also have guys who step up when needed.

The other two games were a product of a great defense forcing shots from the right places.

BTW, Virginia was 60% goaltending and 65% from the X versus Cuse. And 62% and 64% in pulling out a one goal win versus High Point.

again, totally agree.

I don't think there's an "over reliance" on the tender at GT...heck, my own bias is that the tender is one of the very most important elements of any team. I really good one makes everyone around him better.

I think McElroy is that kind of tender.

I'd call that 'fortunate' for GT not 'over reliance'.

Ok, I guess I'm not sure what you are saying then. It sounds like you are questioning their ability to win in the tournament because they only won the ND game due to individual performances beyond the statistical norm.

[MDlaxfan76]

again, fair enough.

BTW, I like Jacksonville's wins, but don't give Hop that much credit for having beaten them super early. It will certainly be interesting to see if Jacksonville can keep it up.

I guess I look at GT vs ND and though they won behind superstar goaltending, which I love, and a very dominant FO performance, they were absolutely whupped in every other category, shots, GB's, TO's...excluding FO's, which GT won 21-8, ND out ground balled GT 29-9...and GT had 20 TO's. Outshot on goal 35-25.

So, I wonder how dominant they actually can be down the stretch...but hey, superstar goaltending and a strong FO can take you far!

I would agree with you IF they had over-relied on goaltending and faceoffs in all of their wins. They have won in a number of ways so far and ALSO have superstar goaltending and a very underrated FOGO when they need it.

Yes, ND outplayed them in most statistics, BUT they had 39.0% offensive efficiency and 42.1% shooting percentage.

Having said that, they are far from a consensus #1, but they are definitely top 5 and so far top 3. How deep they can go in the playoffs is a question that is still a long way away.

Totally agree with that assessment.

McElroy was also 58% against Penn and 68% vs Hop, so while not the only factor, that's a huge one.

And they were 14-8 on FO's against Penn...2 goal game.

Those two drivers certainly matter a ton.

Yes, they do, and top team perform well in those categories. The only time I think Gtown has over relied on McElroy was the 4th quarter of the ND game where he had 11 of his 24 saves (!!!!). Top teams also have guys who step up when needed.

The other two games were a product of a great defense forcing shots from the right places.

BTW, Virginia was 60% goaltending and 65% from the X versus Cuse. And 62% and 64% in pulling out a one goal win versus High Point.

again, totally agree.

I don't think there's an "over reliance" on the tender at GT...heck, my own bias is that the tender is one of the very most important elements of any team. I really good one makes everyone around him better.

I think McElroy is that kind of tender.

I'd call that 'fortunate' for GT not 'over reliance'.

Ok, I guess I'm not sure what you are saying then. It sounds like you are questioning their ability to win in the tournament because they only won the ND game due to individual performances beyond the statistical norm.

No, I'm just saying we really don't know much at all about how teams will shape up as the season matures, weather gets warm...it's February.

I'm patient.

But I like the pieces GT has and it's indeed refreshing to have them in the hunt after a long time in the wilderness.

[Farfromgeneva]

I’m sure you’ve dropped knowledge in him he as otherwise unaware…

I think he likely knows a heck of a lot more than I do about GT and likely some other teams than I do!

Just explaining my viewpoint.

That was supposed to be for your nemesis, our resident Dr Seuss regarding how stats don’t tell the whole story , but you got in between.

[rolldodge]

again, fair enough.

BTW, I like Jacksonville's wins, but don't give Hop that much credit for having beaten them super early. It will certainly be interesting to see if Jacksonville can keep it up.

I guess I look at GT vs ND and though they won behind superstar goaltending, which I love, and a very dominant FO performance, they were absolutely whupped in every other category, shots, GB's, TO's...excluding FO's, which GT won 21-8, ND out ground balled GT 29-9...and GT had 20 TO's. Outshot on goal 35-25.

So, I wonder how dominant they actually can be down the stretch...but hey, superstar goaltending and a strong FO can take you far!

I would agree with you IF they had over-relied on goaltending and faceoffs in all of their wins. They have won in a number of ways so far and ALSO have superstar goaltending and a very underrated FOGO when they need it.

Yes, ND outplayed them in most statistics, BUT they had 39.0% offensive efficiency and 42.1% shooting percentage.

Having said that, they are far from a consensus #1, but they are definitely top 5 and so far top 3. How deep they can go in the playoffs is a question that is still a long way away.

Totally agree with that assessment.

McElroy was also 58% against Penn and 68% vs Hop, so while not the only factor, that's a huge one.

And they were 14-8 on FO's against Penn...2 goal game.

Those two drivers certainly matter a ton.

Yes, they do, and top team perform well in those categories. The only time I think Gtown has over relied on McElroy was the 4th quarter of the ND game where he had 11 of his 24 saves (!!!!). Top teams also have guys who step up when needed.

The other two games were a product of a great defense forcing shots from the right places.

BTW, Virginia was 60% goaltending and 65% from the X versus Cuse. And 62% and 64% in pulling out a one goal win versus High Point.

again, totally agree.

I don't think there's an "over reliance" on the tender at GT...heck, my own bias is that the tender is one of the very most important elements of any team. I really good one makes everyone around him better.

I think McElroy is that kind of tender.

I'd call that 'fortunate' for GT not 'over reliance'.

Ok, I guess I'm not sure what you are saying then. It sounds like you are questioning their ability to win in the tournament because they only won the ND game due to individual performances beyond the statistical norm.

No, I'm just saying we really don't know much at all about how teams will shape up as the season matures, weather gets warm...it's February.

I'm patient.

But I like the pieces GT has and it's indeed refreshing to have them in the hunt after a long time in the wilderness.

Agree. Long way to go. Same for all teams, but Gtown gets less benefit of the doubt, which in some regards is understandable.

[Can Opener]

Brown played UNC tougher than Hopkins despite running into Tucci’s best FO performance of the year. The last time Brown played JHU head-to-head the Bears prevailed 17-8. The mystique of Hopkins in the polls continues. For that matter, Brown is 6-1 against Princeton since 2014, but gets ranked lower every year. Brown deserves to be in the top 20 this week.

Playing the "we lost better than you" game and a playoff matchup from 5 years ago?

Hopkins is getting credit for winning right now. Only a handful of teams have a scalp more valuable than Jacksonville, maybe that changes in the next few weeks. I thought that's what you all wanted?

FTR I thought Brown looked pretty good while losing on Wednesday. Would not be surprised to see them end up in the Top 20 or 15 this year.

Not trying to troll Hopkins here, since it's just barroom banter at this point in the season until more proof points are in. Having said that, objectively Brown did much better against their only common opponent this year. JHU trailed Carolina 14-6 at one point in the fourth quarter. Brown was tied with UNC with less than 5 minutes to go. My only point in bringing up the 17-8 win a few years ago is just to call out the phenomenon of "Sure they're ranked ahead of Brown, they're John MFing Hopkins." Hop was ranked ahead of Brown in early polls that season, too. Not to go way down a rabbit hole, but Maryland teams are typically overweighted in the early polls -- and sometimes the more important ones leading into the tournament. I mean, who are the voters who included 0-3 Loyola in their top 20 this week? Huge respect for Toomey, but that team needs an intervention in some key roles.

My bigger beef is with BU and Princeton. Again, Brown has won 6 of the last 7 meetings against the Tigers and several of those were with Sowers in the lineup. Now without their (arguably) best player ever, Princeton only has wins against Monmouth and Binghamton and a 15-10 loss to Maryland. BU has wins over Merrimack, Bryant and a struggling UMass. Brown defeated BU 12-5 only 10 months ago and returns most of its key components including 3 grad students and 14 seniors from that game. Goss is the most noticeable absence, of course, but don't sleep on Blaze, I mean Connor, Theriault.

Again, this is just the silly season, but Daly kept his guys together all of last season despite playing only one game. Unless practice and team cohesion are overrated, I am confident that the hard work last spring will boost the Bears over other Ivies that chose to disperse and do small group work in sunny locales around the country. We will know a lot more about Brown after hosting Nova tomorrow.

[MDlaxfan76]

I’m sure you’ve dropped knowledge in him he as otherwise unaware…

I think he likely knows a heck of a lot more than I do about GT and likely some other teams than I do!

Just explaining my viewpoint.

That was supposed to be for your nemesis, our resident Dr Seuss regarding how stats don’t tell the whole story , but you got in between.

[HopFan16]

Not trying to troll Hopkins here, since it's just barroom banter at this point in the season until more proof points are in. Having said that, objectively Brown did much better against their only common opponent this year.

I don't care if you rank Brown ahead of Hopkins, but if you want to use this reasoning then that opens up all kinds of doors that I don't think you want opened. Hopkins did objectively much better against their only common opponent with Duke (Jacksonville). Should Hop be ranked ahead of Duke for that reason?

[Can Opener]

Not trying to troll Hopkins here, since it's just barroom banter at this point in the season until more proof points are in. Having said that, objectively Brown did much better against their only common opponent this year.

I don't care if you rank Brown ahead of Hopkins, but if you want to use this reasoning then that opens up all kinds of doors that I don't think you want opened. Hopkins did objectively much better against their only common opponent with Duke (Jacksonville). Should Hop be ranked ahead of Duke for that reason?

I should have been more clear. I wouldn't rank Brown ahead of JHU this week, but I was mostly making the point that Brown should be in the top 20. Their only loss is a very respectable one since they played UNC tighter than the #15 team in the country did. If (giant IF) Brown beats Nova and PC this week and JHU loses to Virginia, I would then advocate for them to leapfrog Hopkins.

[HopFan16]

Not trying to troll Hopkins here, since it's just barroom banter at this point in the season until more proof points are in. Having said that, objectively Brown did much better against their only common opponent this year.

I don't care if you rank Brown ahead of Hopkins, but if you want to use this reasoning then that opens up all kinds of doors that I don't think you want opened. Hopkins did objectively much better against their only common opponent with Duke (Jacksonville). Should Hop be ranked ahead of Duke for that reason?

I should have been more clear. I wouldn't rank Brown ahead of JHU this week, but I was mostly making the point that Brown should be in the top 20. Their only loss is a very respectable one since they played UNC tighter than the #15 team in the country did. If (giant IF) Brown beats Nova and PC this week and JHU loses to Virginia, I would then advocate for them to leapfrog Hopkins.

Fair enough. I think there is a clear top 3 (Maryland, UVA, Georgetown), then another tier with Rutgers, Penn, UNC, Duke, Ohio State, Notre Dame, maybe Jackonsville. But then after that (around #10-11 or so), it's total mush. I don't think there is much separating any of that next tier of teams to be honest so as long as you stick to your criteria pretty much any order is defensible.

[Can Opener]

Not trying to troll Hopkins here, since it's just barroom banter at this point in the season until more proof points are in. Having said that, objectively Brown did much better against their only common opponent this year.

I don't care if you rank Brown ahead of Hopkins, but if you want to use this reasoning then that opens up all kinds of doors that I don't think you want opened. Hopkins did objectively much better against their only common opponent with Duke (Jacksonville). Should Hop be ranked ahead of Duke for that reason?

I should have been more clear. I wouldn't rank Brown ahead of JHU this week, but I was mostly making the point that Brown should be in the top 20. Their only loss is a very respectable one since they played UNC tighter than the #15 team in the country did. If (giant IF) Brown beats Nova and PC this week and JHU loses to Virginia, I would then advocate for them to leapfrog Hopkins.

Fair enough. I think there is a clear top 3 (Maryland, UVA, Georgetown), then another tier with Rutgers, Penn, UNC, Duke, Ohio State, Notre Dame, maybe Jackonsville. But then after that (around #10-11 or so), it's total mush. I don't think there is much separating any of that next tier of teams to be honest so as long as you stick to your criteria pretty much any order is defensible.

Probably the best assessment I've seen so far. Mush pit below 10. It's an "any given Saturday" scenario from 11-25 or so.

[rolldodge]

Not trying to troll Hopkins here, since it's just barroom banter at this point in the season until more proof points are in. Having said that, objectively Brown did much better against their only common opponent this year.

I don't care if you rank Brown ahead of Hopkins, but if you want to use this reasoning then that opens up all kinds of doors that I don't think you want opened. Hopkins did objectively much better against their only common opponent with Duke (Jacksonville). Should Hop be ranked ahead of Duke for that reason?

I should have been more clear. I wouldn't rank Brown ahead of JHU this week, but I was mostly making the point that Brown should be in the top 20. Their only loss is a very respectable one since they played UNC tighter than the #15 team in the country did. If (giant IF) Brown beats Nova and PC this week and JHU loses to Virginia, I would then advocate for them to leapfrog Hopkins.

Fair enough. I think there is a clear top 3 (Maryland, UVA, Georgetown), then another tier with Rutgers, Penn, UNC, Duke, Ohio State, Notre Dame, maybe Jackonsville. But then after that (around #10-11 or so), it's total mush. I don't think there is much separating any of that next tier of teams to be honest so as long as you stick to your criteria pretty much any order is defensible.

Probably the best assessment I've seen so far. Mush pit below 10. It's an "any given Saturday" scenario from 11-25 or so.

Isn't that just always the nature of the beast? The top teams are the ones you "know" are going to win, and the bottom teams are the ones you "know" are going to lose. 11-25 are the teams that could go either way. Of course, this is all dependent on if you judge the teams based on how you think they will do in a future scenario, and not if you judge them based on what they've done. The latter I've found makes it much easier to rank those 11-25 teams and helps better see some teams that might break out of that field.

[Farfromgeneva]

Not trying to troll Hopkins here, since it's just barroom banter at this point in the season until more proof points are in. Having said that, objectively Brown did much better against their only common opponent this year.

I don't care if you rank Brown ahead of Hopkins, but if you want to use this reasoning then that opens up all kinds of doors that I don't think you want opened. Hopkins did objectively much better against their only common opponent with Duke (Jacksonville). Should Hop be ranked ahead of Duke for that reason?

I should have been more clear. I wouldn't rank Brown ahead of JHU this week, but I was mostly making the point that Brown should be in the top 20. Their only loss is a very respectable one since they played UNC tighter than the #15 team in the country did. If (giant IF) Brown beats Nova and PC this week and JHU loses to Virginia, I would then advocate for them to leapfrog Hopkins.

Fair enough. I think there is a clear top 3 (Maryland, UVA, Georgetown), then another tier with Rutgers, Penn, UNC, Duke, Ohio State, Notre Dame, maybe Jackonsville. But then after that (around #10-11 or so), it's total mush. I don't think there is much separating any of that next tier of teams to be honest so as long as you stick to your criteria pretty much any order is defensible.

Probably the best assessment I've seen so far. Mush pit below 10. It's an "any given Saturday" scenario from 11-25 or so.

Isn't that just always the nature of the beast? The top teams are the ones you "know" are going to win, and the bottom teams are the ones you "know" are going to lose. 11-25 are the teams that could go either way. Of course, this is all dependent on if you judge the teams based on how you think they will do in a future scenario, and not if you judge them based on what they've done. The latter I've found makes it much easier to rank those 11-25 teams and helps better see some teams that might break out of that field.

15-35 most years is a toss up.

[Comeonman]

Hey RHR, what you don’t seem to know is that MD76 was a two time AA.

[Farfromgeneva]

He doesn’t care. There’s a blood vendetta there.

[FMUBart]

Hey RHR, what you don’t seem to know is that MD76 was a two time AA.

I was too... but, FWIW, after MD & UVA flip a coin for teams ranked 3 - 25. GT may be separating themselves, but the PSU win over Yale shows that the season is too young to form strong opinions. Many teams show crazy good improvement as the season unfolds. Can weaknesses be overcome? Will injuries crush someone's season, or will other "unheralded" players step up? These Feb - Mar rankings are worthless!

[HGK]

Not sure if they are worthless. Certainly creates a lot of good conversation as you have someone like Rolldodge who is going with the pure performance so far and others like myself going more with the eye test. But agree too small a sample size to really know what will happen in May.

[joewillie78]

Not sure if they are worthless. Certainly creates a lot of good conversation as you have someone like Rolldodge who is going with the pure performance so far and others like myself going more with the eye test. But agree too small a sample size to really know what will happen in May.

I love polls. I am a big polls guy and follow them in EVERY sport I follow, but LAX polls are the best and I find the most volatile.
Being able to actually participate in the FANLAX POLL, every week makes me look even more forward to Sunday night, and reviewing games, and coming up with my poll. Having my beloved alma-mater being an integral part of the poll makes it even that much more fun.
GOBIGRED
Joewillie78

[HGK]

You’re Big Red laying 3.5 today. Should be a great game.

[joewillie78]

You’re Big Red laying 3.5 today. Should be a great game.

Very tough game. The Statesmen are a solid bunch that can score from anywhere.
Big red must bring their A Game to the Kopf tonight.
Your right, should be a great game.
GOBIGRED
Joewillie78