Potential New Top 20

[Catbird]

Brown played UNC tougher than Hopkins despite running into Tucci’s best FO performance of the year. The last time Brown played JHU head-to-head the Bears prevailed 17-8. The mystique of Hopkins in the polls continues. For that matter, Brown is 6-1 against Princeton since 2014, but gets ranked lower every year. Brown deserves to be in the top 20 this week.

Playing the "we lost better than you" game and a playoff matchup from 5 years ago?

Hopkins is getting credit for winning right now. Only a handful of teams have a scalp more valuable than Jacksonville, maybe that changes in the next few weeks. I thought that's what you all wanted?

FTR I thought Brown looked pretty good while losing on Wednesday. Would not be surprised to see them end up in the Top 20 or 15 this year.

[rolldodge]

Do we believe a handful of contests in February are actually very predictive or do we think that as teams settle into the season the best will find a way to coalesce at the top?

I mean, yes they are predictive in terms of who gets into the tournament and where they are seeded. Less predictive as the season goes on in terms of guessing tournament performance.

As far as "best will find a way to coalesce at the top" that sounds like a tautology. Of course they will, but any guess as to who that will be is an assumption. Some polls, like Lacrosse Reference, make these assumptions with a defined set of criteria. Most do not.

[Farfromgeneva]

Why is beating Duke and Denver particularly notable at this point? More meaningful than beating Syracuse?

We really don't have a clue who the top 10 will be other than some of the unbeatens. Some good guesses, sure, but I'm not ready to just assume that sort of ordering until a bunch more games have been played...in March, not February.

That said, no issue with the current top 10 having potential, just not the ordering until more is proven.

I guess that's the nature of such early season polls.

Duke has a win over Delaware (top 20). Denver has a win over Utah, arguably top 25. Both have winning records. Definitely more meaningful than beating Syracuse who has a win over Holy Cross (who has been blown out by everyone) and did not look particularly noteworthy against Maryland and Virginia.

Yes, this approach is highly volatile in the early season -- but it does help to challenge your own implicit biases about teams. Why not order them this way now and see how things play out, rather than make assumptions based on ???

I think this approach particularly helps in ranking teams 10-25. And really helps consider teams you might otherwise overlook, even if it may over rank some teams at the top. Also, its fun to see some new names in unexpected places.

Fair enough, especially in the rankings below 10.

I just think that there's so little data that this is an exercise in mental masturb. But hey, that's simply a reality of early season polling and ranking. IMO.

Do we believe a handful of contests in February are actually very predictive or do we think that as teams settle into the season the best will find a way to coalesce at the top?

I tend to think the latter, but it's indeed fun to see some of the schools that haven't been in the mix be there now. And I'd be willing to bet that they're not flash in the pans, either and will , at a minimum be in the conversation down the stretch.

Better than mental celibacy!

[MDlaxfan76]

Why is beating Duke and Denver particularly notable at this point? More meaningful than beating Syracuse?

We really don't have a clue who the top 10 will be other than some of the unbeatens. Some good guesses, sure, but I'm not ready to just assume that sort of ordering until a bunch more games have been played...in March, not February.

That said, no issue with the current top 10 having potential, just not the ordering until more is proven.

I guess that's the nature of such early season polls.

Duke has a win over Delaware (top 20). Denver has a win over Utah, arguably top 25. Both have winning records. Definitely more meaningful than beating Syracuse who has a win over Holy Cross (who has been blown out by everyone) and did not look particularly noteworthy against Maryland and Virginia.

Yes, this approach is highly volatile in the early season -- but it does help to challenge your own implicit biases about teams. Why not order them this way now and see how things play out, rather than make assumptions based on ???

I think this approach particularly helps in ranking teams 10-25. And really helps consider teams you might otherwise overlook, even if it may over rank some teams at the top. Also, its fun to see some new names in unexpected places.

Fair enough, especially in the rankings below 10.

I just think that there's so little data that this is an exercise in mental masturb. But hey, that's simply a reality of early season polling and ranking. IMO.

Do we believe a handful of contests in February are actually very predictive or do we think that as teams settle into the season the best will find a way to coalesce at the top?

I tend to think the latter, but it's indeed fun to see some of the schools that haven't been in the mix be there now. And I'd be willing to bet that they're not flash in the pans, either and will , at a minimum be in the conversation down the stretch.

Better than mental celibacy!

[MDlaxfan76]

Why is beating Duke and Denver particularly notable at this point? More meaningful than beating Syracuse?

We really don't have a clue who the top 10 will be other than some of the unbeatens. Some good guesses, sure, but I'm not ready to just assume that sort of ordering until a bunch more games have been played...in March, not February.

That said, no issue with the current top 10 having potential, just not the ordering until more is proven.

I guess that's the nature of such early season polls.

Duke has a win over Delaware (top 20). Denver has a win over Utah, arguably top 25. Both have winning records. Definitely more meaningful than beating Syracuse who has a win over Holy Cross (who has been blown out by everyone) and did not look particularly noteworthy against Maryland and Virginia.

Yes, this approach is highly volatile in the early season -- but it does help to challenge your own implicit biases about teams. Why not order them this way now and see how things play out, rather than make assumptions based on ???

I think this approach particularly helps in ranking teams 10-25. And really helps consider teams you might otherwise overlook, even if it may over rank some teams at the top. Also, its fun to see some new names in unexpected places.

Fair enough, especially in the rankings below 10.

I just think that there's so little data that this is an exercise in mental masturb. But hey, that's simply a reality of early season polling and ranking. IMO.

Do we believe a handful of contests in February are actually very predictive or do we think that as teams settle into the season the best will find a way to coalesce at the top?

I tend to think the latter, but it's indeed fun to see some of the schools that haven't been in the mix be there now. And I'd be willing to bet that they're not flash in the pans, either and will , at a minimum be in the conversation down the stretch.

I also try to watch a lot of the games, so its not just based on box scores. Jacksonville beat Duke pretty decisively and then followed it up with a good win over Denver. Ohio State is undefeated and crushed UNC. I think that deserves recognition. Maryland and Virginia are good, but Loyola and Syracuse are down this year, so they are being hyped up beyond the results so far. For instance, Virginia did look good against Cuse, but if you watched closely, Cuse played terrible defense which made them look even better. However, Virginia's combination of goalie + faceoffs + offense is impressive and will most likely result in some very good Ws going forward.

Another team to watch out for is Boston U. They look like they could be legit.

again, fair enough.

BTW, I like Jacksonville's wins, but don't give Hop that much credit for having beaten them super early. It will certainly be interesting to see if Jacksonville can keep it up.

I guess I look at GT vs ND and though they won behind superstar goaltending, which I love, and a very dominant FO performance, they were absolutely whupped in every other category, shots, GB's, TO's...excluding FO's, which GT won 21-8, ND out ground balled GT 29-9...and GT had 20 TO's. Outshot on goal 35-25.

So, I wonder how dominant they actually can be down the stretch...but hey, superstar goaltending and a strong FO can take you far!

[10stone5]

And also,
continuing love from Quint,
to Hobart.

[runrussellrun]

again, fair enough.

BTW, I like Jacksonville's wins, but don't give Hop that much credit for having beaten them super early. It will certainly be interesting to see if Jacksonville can keep it up.

I guess I look at GT vs ND and though they won behind superstar goaltending, which I love, and a very dominant FO performance, they were absolutely whupped in every other category, shots, GB's, TO's...excluding FO's, which GT won 21-8, ND out ground balled GT 29-9...and GT had 20 TO's. Outshot on goal 35-25.

So, I wonder how dominant they actually can be down the stretch...but hey, superstar goaltending and a strong FO can take you far!

A question for you, mdlaxfan....on average, how many complete games do you watch, per week?

[MDlaxfan76]

again, fair enough.

BTW, I like Jacksonville's wins, but don't give Hop that much credit for having beaten them super early. It will certainly be interesting to see if Jacksonville can keep it up.

I guess I look at GT vs ND and though they won behind superstar goaltending, which I love, and a very dominant FO performance, they were absolutely whupped in every other category, shots, GB's, TO's...excluding FO's, which GT won 21-8, ND out ground balled GT 29-9...and GT had 20 TO's. Outshot on goal 35-25.

So, I wonder how dominant they actually can be down the stretch...but hey, superstar goaltending and a strong FO can take you far!

A question for you, mdlaxfan....on average, how many complete games do you watch, per week?

2-4 in season. Sometimes more.

Some aren't 'complete' in that I pick up midway or turn off when out of hand.

I also look at the stats lines from lots of games. Tells a ton.

Why would that matter?
I'm not holding myself as an expert commentator.
Not sure anyone on here is.

[rolldodge]

again, fair enough.

BTW, I like Jacksonville's wins, but don't give Hop that much credit for having beaten them super early. It will certainly be interesting to see if Jacksonville can keep it up.

I guess I look at GT vs ND and though they won behind superstar goaltending, which I love, and a very dominant FO performance, they were absolutely whupped in every other category, shots, GB's, TO's...excluding FO's, which GT won 21-8, ND out ground balled GT 29-9...and GT had 20 TO's. Outshot on goal 35-25.

So, I wonder how dominant they actually can be down the stretch...but hey, superstar goaltending and a strong FO can take you far!

I would agree with you IF they had over-relied on goaltending and faceoffs in all of their wins. They have won in a number of ways so far and ALSO have superstar goaltending and a very underrated FOGO when they need it.

Yes, ND outplayed them in most statistics, BUT they had 39.0% offensive efficiency and 42.1% shooting percentage.

Having said that, they are far from a consensus #1, but they are definitely top 5 and so far top 3. How deep they can go in the playoffs is a question that is still a long way away.

[rolldodge]

BTW, I like Jacksonville's wins, but don't give Hop that much credit for having beaten them super early. It will certainly be interesting to see if Jacksonville can keep it up.

Looking forward, I expect that Hopkins will drop and the Jacksonville win will mean much less. I don't see them ending the year with above a .500 record. However that's just conjecture, and at the moment, they are one of the few teams with a top 20 win and who knows how things will play out. As far as Jacksonville, they've got a couple nice wins in their pocket that could be very valuable come tournament time, if they are not able to win their conference -- which is far from a given with Richmond and High Point in the mix.

[runrussellrun]

again, fair enough.

BTW, I like Jacksonville's wins, but don't give Hop that much credit for having beaten them super early. It will certainly be interesting to see if Jacksonville can keep it up.

I guess I look at GT vs ND and though they won behind superstar goaltending, which I love, and a very dominant FO performance, they were absolutely whupped in every other category, shots, GB's, TO's...excluding FO's, which GT won 21-8, ND out ground balled GT 29-9...and GT had 20 TO's. Outshot on goal 35-25.

So, I wonder how dominant they actually can be down the stretch...but hey, superstar goaltending and a strong FO can take you far!

A question for you, mdlaxfan....on average, how many complete games do you watch, per week?

2-4 in season. Sometimes more.

Some aren't 'complete' in that I pick up midway or turn off when out of hand.

I also look at the stats lines from lots of games. Tells a ton.

Why would that matter?
I'm not holding myself as an expert commentator.
Not sure anyone on here is.

Stat line tell you little, to nothing. IE: if you are dropping every single pass, but scoop up the ball, does it count as a GB stat

A goalie save from zone 1/green (right side doorstep0-3yds ) is equal to a goalie save from zone 5/green (shot beyond 14 yards) ?

[MDlaxfan76]

again, fair enough.

BTW, I like Jacksonville's wins, but don't give Hop that much credit for having beaten them super early. It will certainly be interesting to see if Jacksonville can keep it up.

I guess I look at GT vs ND and though they won behind superstar goaltending, which I love, and a very dominant FO performance, they were absolutely whupped in every other category, shots, GB's, TO's...excluding FO's, which GT won 21-8, ND out ground balled GT 29-9...and GT had 20 TO's. Outshot on goal 35-25.

So, I wonder how dominant they actually can be down the stretch...but hey, superstar goaltending and a strong FO can take you far!

I would agree with you IF they had over-relied on goaltending and faceoffs in all of their wins. They have won in a number of ways so far and ALSO have superstar goaltending and a very underrated FOGO when they need it.

Yes, ND outplayed them in most statistics, BUT they had 39.0% offensive efficiency and 42.1% shooting percentage.

Having said that, they are far from a consensus #1, but they are definitely top 5 and so far top 3. How deep they can go in the playoffs is a question that is still a long way away.

Totally agree with that assessment.

McElroy was also 58% against Penn and 68% vs Hop, so while not the only factor, that's a huge one.

And they were 14-8 on FO's against Penn...2 goal game.

Those two drivers certainly matter a ton.

[Farfromgeneva]

I’m sure you’ve dropped knowledge in him he as otherwise unaware…

[MDlaxfan76]

again, fair enough.

BTW, I like Jacksonville's wins, but don't give Hop that much credit for having beaten them super early. It will certainly be interesting to see if Jacksonville can keep it up.

I guess I look at GT vs ND and though they won behind superstar goaltending, which I love, and a very dominant FO performance, they were absolutely whupped in every other category, shots, GB's, TO's...excluding FO's, which GT won 21-8, ND out ground balled GT 29-9...and GT had 20 TO's. Outshot on goal 35-25.

So, I wonder how dominant they actually can be down the stretch...but hey, superstar goaltending and a strong FO can take you far!

A question for you, mdlaxfan....on average, how many complete games do you watch, per week?

2-4 in season. Sometimes more.

Some aren't 'complete' in that I pick up midway or turn off when out of hand.

I also look at the stats lines from lots of games. Tells a ton.

Why would that matter?
I'm not holding myself as an expert commentator.
Not sure anyone on here is.

Stat line tell you little, to nothing. IE: if you are dropping every single pass, but scoop up the ball, does it count as a GB stat

A goalie save from zone 1/green (right side doorstep0-3yds ) is equal to a goalie save from zone 5/green (shot beyond 14 yards) ?

I think you've answered your own question.

As you know, I pay a lot of attention to goalies in particular and I'm quite aware not only where shots are coming from, but also who is doing the shooting, how free their hands are etc. Shots missed, goalie positioning etc.

Of course there are differences on any given GB or shot, but I differ on what can be gleaned from aggregate stats. They tell at least a beginning of the story.

Of course, watching an actual game tells something else, the flow, the match-ups. Combining info is best, IMO.

But looking at stats takes a heck of a lot less time!
And I don't pay for all the feeds required to watch lots of the games 'live'. Sometimes will catch a game later if I'm truly interested.

[MDlaxfan76]

I’m sure you’ve dropped knowledge in him he as otherwise unaware…

I think he likely knows a heck of a lot more than I do about GT and likely some other teams than I do!

Just explaining my viewpoint.

[runrussellrun]

I think you've answered your own question. Have I ?

As you know, I pay a lot of attention to goalies in particular and I'm quite aware not only where shots are coming from, but also who is doing the shooting, how free their hands are etc. Shots missed, goalie positioning etc. Thought save % was queen?

Of course there are differences on any given GB or shot, but I differ on what can be gleaned from aggregate stats. They tell at least a beginning of the story. we break down GB's thru various groupings. uncontested, outnumbered, gb's picked up in regions. An offensive GB means your shot didn't score, but rebounded out towards your team. Hit goalie, or pipe, or blocked? either way, your GB stat really means you can't shoot. HuH ? l

Of course, watching an actual game tells something else, the flow, the match-ups. Combining info is best, IMO.

But looking at stats takes a heck of a lot less time!
And I don't pay for all the feeds required to watch lots of the games 'live'. Sometimes will catch a game later if I'm truly interested. which, sounds like, rarely. So, you don't watch one game, beginning to end.....just partial games. You don't really seem like a big time lacrosse fan. Guess it does take time away from posting hear

[rolldodge]

again, fair enough.

BTW, I like Jacksonville's wins, but don't give Hop that much credit for having beaten them super early. It will certainly be interesting to see if Jacksonville can keep it up.

I guess I look at GT vs ND and though they won behind superstar goaltending, which I love, and a very dominant FO performance, they were absolutely whupped in every other category, shots, GB's, TO's...excluding FO's, which GT won 21-8, ND out ground balled GT 29-9...and GT had 20 TO's. Outshot on goal 35-25.

So, I wonder how dominant they actually can be down the stretch...but hey, superstar goaltending and a strong FO can take you far!

I would agree with you IF they had over-relied on goaltending and faceoffs in all of their wins. They have won in a number of ways so far and ALSO have superstar goaltending and a very underrated FOGO when they need it.

Yes, ND outplayed them in most statistics, BUT they had 39.0% offensive efficiency and 42.1% shooting percentage.

Having said that, they are far from a consensus #1, but they are definitely top 5 and so far top 3. How deep they can go in the playoffs is a question that is still a long way away.

Totally agree with that assessment.

McElroy was also 58% against Penn and 68% vs Hop, so while not the only factor, that's a huge one.

And they were 14-8 on FO's against Penn...2 goal game.

Those two drivers certainly matter a ton.

Yes, they do, and top team perform well in those categories. The only time I think Gtown has over relied on McElroy was the 4th quarter of the ND game where he had 11 of his 24 saves (!!!!). Top teams also have guys who step up when needed.

The other two games were a product of a great defense forcing shots from the right places.

BTW, Virginia was 60% goaltending and 65% from the X versus Cuse. And 62% and 64% in pulling out a one goal win versus High Point.

[MDlaxfan76]

I think you've answered your own question. Have I ?

As you know, I pay a lot of attention to goalies in particular and I'm quite aware not only where shots are coming from, but also who is doing the shooting, how free their hands are etc. Shots missed, goalie positioning etc. Thought save % was queen?

Of course there are differences on any given GB or shot, but I differ on what can be gleaned from aggregate stats. They tell at least a beginning of the story. we break down GB's thru various groupings. uncontested, outnumbered, gb's picked up in regions. An offensive GB means your shot didn't score, but rebounded out towards your team. Hit goalie, or pipe, or blocked? either way, your GB stat really means you can't shoot. HuH ? l

Of course, watching an actual game tells something else, the flow, the match-ups. Combining info is best, IMO.

But looking at stats takes a heck of a lot less time!
And I don't pay for all the feeds required to watch lots of the games 'live'. Sometimes will catch a game later if I'm truly interested. which, sounds like, rarely. So, you don't watch one game, beginning to end.....just partial games. You don't really seem like a big time lacrosse fan. Guess it does take time away from posting hear

why the constant personal attacks, RRR?

I'm not claiming my process and rationale is not better than someone else's.
It's simply how I like to analyze the sport, though I'd rather watch a game 'live'.

Of course I like to watch full games, at least of the teams where I have some specific rooting interest, some particular affinity or I happen to know some of the players or their families. At this point, all of the kids I coached are out of college, but some have relatives, some are sons of friends, some played for my son or...

And re tenders, yeah, saves % is the single most important and telling stat. Just not the whole story.

Why argue, why attack?

Have I had an opinion with which you actually disagree?
No sweat, explain.

[HGK]

MD, don’t recall your “ Denver only beat Georgetown because of Baptiste” posts or the “if Irelan didn’t win 38 of 42 in NCAAs Hoyas had em beat in every other category.” Posts.

I don’t disagree with you as I was on Georgetown thread right after ND game saying you can’t rely on heroic efforts from X and Goalie. And there is a lot to clean up no doubt. But interesting to note the narrative now vs the quiet then.

[MDlaxfan76]

again, fair enough.

BTW, I like Jacksonville's wins, but don't give Hop that much credit for having beaten them super early. It will certainly be interesting to see if Jacksonville can keep it up.

I guess I look at GT vs ND and though they won behind superstar goaltending, which I love, and a very dominant FO performance, they were absolutely whupped in every other category, shots, GB's, TO's...excluding FO's, which GT won 21-8, ND out ground balled GT 29-9...and GT had 20 TO's. Outshot on goal 35-25.

So, I wonder how dominant they actually can be down the stretch...but hey, superstar goaltending and a strong FO can take you far!

I would agree with you IF they had over-relied on goaltending and faceoffs in all of their wins. They have won in a number of ways so far and ALSO have superstar goaltending and a very underrated FOGO when they need it.

Yes, ND outplayed them in most statistics, BUT they had 39.0% offensive efficiency and 42.1% shooting percentage.

Having said that, they are far from a consensus #1, but they are definitely top 5 and so far top 3. How deep they can go in the playoffs is a question that is still a long way away.

Totally agree with that assessment.

McElroy was also 58% against Penn and 68% vs Hop, so while not the only factor, that's a huge one.

And they were 14-8 on FO's against Penn...2 goal game.

Those two drivers certainly matter a ton.

Yes, they do, and top team perform well in those categories. The only time I think Gtown has over relied on McElroy was the 4th quarter of the ND game where he had 11 of his 24 saves (!!!!). Top teams also have guys who step up when needed.

The other two games were a product of a great defense forcing shots from the right places.

BTW, Virginia was 60% goaltending and 65% from the X versus Cuse. And 62% and 64% in pulling out a one goal win versus High Point.

again, totally agree.

I don't think there's an "over reliance" on the tender at GT...heck, my own bias is that the tender is one of the very most important elements of any team. I really good one makes everyone around him better.

I think McElroy is that kind of tender.

I'd call that 'fortunate' for GT not 'over reliance'.