old salt wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 2:54 pmPutin hopes to annex as much of Ukraine as he can, with limited damage & post-conflict resistance.
He wants the EUros to keep buying his gas & oil, with limited or no disruption.
...and you're NOT OK with that, right?
I'm just telling you what I see, so far. I'm relieved that the initial strikes are not as brutal as they could be, but this thing is just getting started.
I want this to end asap, with minimum loss of life & before it forces our NATO allies to have to make difficult decisions.
Despite the rah rah -- this has not made NATO stronger or more committed. They are just more afraid.
Fear is a powerful motivator and quite rational in this case.
Rather than "stronger" let's just say more unified.
I notice you didn't answer the question directly.
I think you are correct that Putin's ideal scenario is for the Ukrainians to roll over, the Zelensky government to fall, and a puppet regime is put in place ala Belarus. As brutal as necessary to put down the ensuing insurgency, with Russian support.
Once that's done, who's next?
He ain't stopping until he's restored the Empire....and maybe more.
Yes, he wants to keep pumping, so that's gotta stop. And Russia needs to be totally removed from the international monetary system.
They need to totally crushed economically....which can stop when he withdraws. No puppet regime.
I think that'll require a well funded and supplied insurgency. Might not be quick. And so the pain for Russia won't abate quickly either.
This shooting war Russia has with Ukraine then moves into the high tech cyberwarfare that is the next step in the chess game. So our move is in even harsher sanctions, Putins move is to shut down our power grid or something similar. You don't think Putin has not thought out his next move??? I do, the west has already told him what they will do next. You think Putin won't respond?
Sure, but you think we don't have all the offensive cyber capabilities they have? And better defensive?
HINT: ours are way better.
This not going to be pleasant at all for us. But it's gonna be hell on Russia.
I have no idea MD. I know Putin knows our next move. Do we know his? Do you think he has not thought far ahead? I know our tech geeks are pretty damn good. They just don't know the next Russian move will be. Unless of course, and this is a long shot.. our geeks make a preemptive move first.
Lemme help you a bit. We already have the mechanisms in place to shut down their grids, their water, their banks, whatever. already in place. Would have to flip the switches.
They likely have some of those as well, but we've been working very hard to address those vulnerabilities...we won't catch them all.
And sure, Putin has thought about this. Very canny...but also quite removed from reality. No one left to tell him the truth he doesn't want to hear...and he has the enormous true believer ego that he's the strong man who will restore the empire...but that may well be what results in Russia's full collapse.
The problem we really do face is whether, in the throes of that collapse, he goes nuclear and no one stops him. Scary.
"Lemme help you a bit. We already have the mechanisms in place to shut down their grids, their water, their banks, whatever. already in place. Would have to flip the switches."
Yet our spooks couldn't figure out and report to Bob Mueller how the Russians tried to steal the election??? You think the Russians, who according to everything you have been saying about them here for months, don't have the same capabilities. You think they are that stupid?? i don't, this is like Bobby Fischer vs Boris Spassky back in the day. You can only HOPE our spooks our better. None of us know that for certain. FTR, in a box in my basement I still have my worn out copy of Bobby Fischer teaches chess. i was a damn good chess player back in the day...
old salt wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 3:10 pmDespite the rah rah -- this has not made NATO stronger or more committed. They are just more afraid.
If you were sitting in a job in a NATO county's foreign ministry, you'd probably be sweating bullets TOO today...
..you saw where Sweden and Finland are stepping up efforts - exploring - the wisdom of entering NATO, yeah?
..
Of course they are
.
Republicans are too busy telling everyone how brilliant Putin is to shut up for five seconds, and consider all the downsides for Putin.
Many of them hate democrats more than they hate Putin…and they can’t help but to show their slip on this point. And I’m getting sick of it.
Putin knows and understands the downsides. He is just doesn't give a chit about them. How this plays out in the long run is what matters. It is the Democrats running the country, their problem to fix. What will the Democrats do when the Chicoms invade Taiwan?? The Chicoms know an opportunity when they see it. You want to bet be a steak dinner the Chicoms don't take advantage of a weak US POTUS?? Taiwan is going down, the time is right, there will never be a better chance for the Chicoms. BTW, I like my steak rare.
Why are you worried about it? You can’t do anything.
Go change your pants. You ever see him in concert?
No need to change pants, those depends work wonders, as long as you don't mind wearing sweat pants alot. You get use to that squishy feeling in your backside.
I was going to mention depends but gave you the benefit of the doubt. You ever see Bobby McFerrin in concert?
MDlaxfan76 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 4:02 pm
I notice you didn't answer the question directly. Ok or not ok with the status you described? Restate the perceived unanswered question & I'll give it a shot, although I hope the following answers it for you..
I think you are correct that Putin's ideal scenario is for the Ukrainians to roll over, the Zelensky government to fall, and a puppet regime is put in place ala Belarus. As brutal as necessary to put down the ensuing insurgency, with Russian support. imho -- the best we can hope for is to minimize blood shed & hold NATO together long enough to build the resolve to do what's necessary to keep Putin from moving on the Baltic states next.
Once that's done, who's next? Nobody, if this forces NATO to get their sh!t together.
If not, Georgia or the Baltic states could be next.
He ain't stopping until he's restored the Empire....and maybe more. imho -- a Union of Russia, Belarus, Ukraine & demilitarization/arms limits along NATO's border with that Union could be sufficient to satisfy his Czarist aspirations.
Yes, he wants to keep pumping, so that's gotta stop. And Russia needs to be totally removed from the international monetary system. The EUros can't & won't let either happen.
They need to totally crushed economically....which can stop when he withdraws. No puppet regime. We can't do it alone & neither Wall St or Main St will accept what that would require
I think that'll require a well funded and supplied insurgency. Might not be quick. And so the pain for Russia won't abate quickly either. You, HR McMaster & Amb Bill Young are the only ones I've heard who give an insurgency a chance for anything other than prolonging the bloodletting. Is it worth turning Ukraine into another Afghanistan ?
dislaxxic wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 3:05 pm
old salt wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 2:54 pm
Putin hopes to annex as much of Ukraine as he can, with limited damage & post-conflict resistance.
He wants the EUros to keep buying his gas & oil, with limited or no disruption. ...and you're NOT OK with that, right?
Whether the insurgency is successful or not depends on the Ukrainians who decide to fight it, not any American's opinions. But it will also depend on its funding and supply of weapons. The insurgency will have the ability, ala the Taliban and Pakistan, to be trained and supplied nearby.
But in no way am I suggesting it's a piece of cake, much less that the insurgency alone will be sufficient.
And I think this won't be just within Ukraine. I'd expect bombs going off in Moscow and all over Russia. All sorts of disruptions.
Of course, as I said before Putin may be able to install a brutal puppet regime and move on to the next challenge.
Unless we choke off his economy.
It all sounds good if you think you can predict what Putin's counter moves would be. I'm not sure at all what he would do, but these seem like escalations where we could trigger something far worse. Why don't we offer him a way out? The Russian areas of Ukraine and pack up and go home? He's going to take those at a minimum anyway.
Taking isn't the same as holding, and the bottomline is that aggressors can't be rewarded for being aggressive.
China is part of the perspective to come and that's why they're not condemning Putin the same way. It'll be interesting how they feel when their state owned banks get sanctioned if they do business with sanctioned Russians.
This really does have some very troubling ways it could escalate, but we really can't let the international rules mean nothing anymore. The West is toast in that scenario.
So, you may be right that at the end of the day (many days away, more likely years) Russia may hold those regions. But they will have paid a hell of a price.
Don't kid yourself that they'll stop otherwise.
Last edited by MDlaxfan76 on Thu Feb 24, 2022 5:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
old salt wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 2:54 pmPutin hopes to annex as much of Ukraine as he can, with limited damage & post-conflict resistance.
He wants the EUros to keep buying his gas & oil, with limited or no disruption.
...and you're NOT OK with that, right?
I'm just telling you what I see, so far. I'm relieved that the initial strikes are not as brutal as they could be, but this thing is just getting started.
I want this to end asap, with minimum loss of life & before it forces our NATO allies to have to make difficult decisions.
Despite the rah rah -- this has not made NATO stronger or more committed. They are just more afraid.
Fear is a powerful motivator and quite rational in this case.
Rather than "stronger" let's just say more unified.
I notice you didn't answer the question directly.
I think you are correct that Putin's ideal scenario is for the Ukrainians to roll over, the Zelensky government to fall, and a puppet regime is put in place ala Belarus. As brutal as necessary to put down the ensuing insurgency, with Russian support.
Once that's done, who's next?
He ain't stopping until he's restored the Empire....and maybe more.
Yes, he wants to keep pumping, so that's gotta stop. And Russia needs to be totally removed from the international monetary system.
They need to totally crushed economically....which can stop when he withdraws. No puppet regime.
I think that'll require a well funded and supplied insurgency. Might not be quick. And so the pain for Russia won't abate quickly either.
This shooting war Russia has with Ukraine then moves into the high tech cyberwarfare that is the next step in the chess game. So our move is in even harsher sanctions, Putins move is to shut down our power grid or something similar. You don't think Putin has not thought out his next move??? I do, the west has already told him what they will do next. You think Putin won't respond?
Sure, but you think we don't have all the offensive cyber capabilities they have? And better defensive?
HINT: ours are way better.
This not going to be pleasant at all for us. But it's gonna be hell on Russia.
I have no idea MD. I know Putin knows our next move. Do we know his? Do you think he has not thought far ahead? I know our tech geeks are pretty damn good. They just don't know the next Russian move will be. Unless of course, and this is a long shot.. our geeks make a preemptive move first.
Lemme help you a bit. We already have the mechanisms in place to shut down their grids, their water, their banks, whatever. already in place. Would have to flip the switches.
They likely have some of those as well, but we've been working very hard to address those vulnerabilities...we won't catch them all.
And sure, Putin has thought about this. Very canny...but also quite removed from reality. No one left to tell him the truth he doesn't want to hear...and he has the enormous true believer ego that he's the strong man who will restore the empire...but that may well be what results in Russia's full collapse.
The problem we really do face is whether, in the throes of that collapse, he goes nuclear and no one stops him. Scary.
"Lemme help you a bit. We already have the mechanisms in place to shut down their grids, their water, their banks, whatever. already in place. Would have to flip the switches."
Yet our spooks couldn't figure out and report to Bob Mueller how the Russians tried to steal the election??? You think the Russians, who according to everything you have been saying about them here for months, don't have the same capabilities. You think they are that stupid?? i don't, this is like Bobby Fischer vs Boris Spassky back in the day. You can only HOPE our spooks our better. None of us know that for certain. FTR, in a box in my basement I still have my worn out copy of Bobby Fischer teaches chess. i was a damn good chess player back in the day...
MDlaxfan76 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 4:02 pm
I notice you didn't answer the question directly. Ok or not ok with the status you described? Restate the perceived unanswered question & I'll give it a shot, although I hope the following answers it for you..
I think you are correct that Putin's ideal scenario is for the Ukrainians to roll over, the Zelensky government to fall, and a puppet regime is put in place ala Belarus. As brutal as necessary to put down the ensuing insurgency, with Russian support. imho -- the best we can hope for is to minimize blood shed & hold NATO together long enough to build the resolve to do what's necessary to keep Putin from moving on the Baltic states next.
Once that's done, who's next? Nobody, if this forces NATO to get their sh!t together.
If not, Georgia or the Baltic states could be next.
He ain't stopping until he's restored the Empire....and maybe more. imho -- a Union of Russia, Belarus, Ukraine & demilitarization/arms limits along NATO's border with that Union could be sufficient to satisfy his Czarist aspirations.
Yes, he wants to keep pumping, so that's gotta stop. And Russia needs to be totally removed from the international monetary system. The EUros can't & won't let either happen.
They need to totally crushed economically....which can stop when he withdraws. No puppet regime. We can't do it alone & neither Wall St or Main St will accept what that would require
I think that'll require a well funded and supplied insurgency. Might not be quick. And so the pain for Russia won't abate quickly either. You, HR McMaster & Amb Bill Young are the only ones I've heard who give an insurgency a chance for anything other than prolonging the bloodletting. Is it worth turning Ukraine into another Afghanistan ?
dislaxxic wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 3:05 pm
old salt wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 2:54 pm
Putin hopes to annex as much of Ukraine as he can, with limited damage & post-conflict resistance.
He wants the EUros to keep buying his gas & oil, with limited or no disruption. ...and you're NOT OK with that, right?
Whether the insurgency is successful or not depends on the Ukrainians who decide to fight it, not any American's opinions. But it will also depend on its funding and supply of weapons. The insurgency will have the ability, ala the Taliban and Pakistan, to be trained and supplied nearby.
But in no way am I suggesting it's a piece of cake, much less that the insurgency alone will be sufficient.
And I think this won't be just within Ukraine. I'd expect bombs going off in Moscow and all over Russia. All sorts of disruptions.
Of course, as I said before Putin may be able to install a brutal puppet regime and move on to the next challenge.
Unless we choke off his economy.
It all sounds good if you think you can predict what Putin's counter moves would be. I'm not sure at all what he would do, but these seem like escalations where we could trigger something far worse. Why don't we offer him a way out? The Russian areas of Ukraine and pack up and go home? He's going to take those at a minimum anyway.
Taking isn't the same as holding, and the bottomline is that aggressors can't be rewarded for being aggressive.
China is part of the perspective to come and that's why they're not condemning Putin the same way. It'll be interesting how they feel when their state owned banks get sanctioned if they do business with sanctioned Russians.
This really does have some very troubling ways it could escalate, but we really can't let the international rules mean nothing anymore. The West is toast in that scenario.
So, you may be right that at the end of the day (many days away, more likely years) Russia may hold those regions. But they will have paid a hell of a price.
Don't kid yourself that they'll stop otherwise.
Eastern Ukraine is the major wheat producing area. I think it's a big reason he wants it in addition to whatever megalomania he has going on.
"I would never want to belong to a club that would have me as a member", Groucho Marx
old salt wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 3:10 pmDespite the rah rah -- this has not made NATO stronger or more committed. They are just more afraid.
If you were sitting in a job in a NATO county's foreign ministry, you'd probably be sweating bullets TOO today...
..you saw where Sweden and Finland are stepping up efforts - exploring - the wisdom of entering NATO, yeah?
..
Of course they are
.
Republicans are too busy telling everyone how brilliant Putin is to shut up for five seconds, and consider all the downsides for Putin.
Many of them hate democrats more than they hate Putin…and they can’t help but to show their slip on this point. And I’m getting sick of it.
Putin knows and understands the downsides. He is just doesn't give a chit about them. How this plays out in the long run is what matters. It is the Democrats running the country, their problem to fix. What will the Democrats do when the Chicoms invade Taiwan?? The Chicoms know an opportunity when they see it. You want to bet be a steak dinner the Chicoms don't take advantage of a weak US POTUS?? Taiwan is going down, the time is right, there will never be a better chance for the Chicoms. BTW, I like my steak rare.
Why are you worried about it? You can’t do anything.
Go change your pants. You ever see him in concert?
No need to change pants, those depends work wonders, as long as you don't mind wearing sweat pants alot. You get use to that squishy feeling in your backside.
I was going to mention depends but gave you the benefit of the doubt. You ever see Bobby McFerrin in concert?
I'm stunned, you giving me the benefit of the doubt. No I never saw Bobby McFerrin in concert. I do like his work that I have heard, but it is not much.
We don't make mistakes, we have happy accidents.
Bob Ross:
Brooklyn wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 5:09 pm
For many years on LP and here, pro war right wingers were always disgusted at anti war protests and actions. Today there were anti war protests in Moscow by the hippie population types there. I imagine that forum right wingers are enraged over all this as they love war and happily applaud every occasion when it happens. I understand about 1,000 were arrested. Sadly (as far as right wingers are concerned) the police arrested but did not club, gas, or stomp on them like American cops do. I've been waiting for forum right wingers to express their usual howls of protest re these anti war malcontents.
So let's hear it forum right wingers. Let's see you condemn anti war protesters in Moscow like you've done with their counterparts here in the USA.
old salt wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 2:54 pmPutin hopes to annex as much of Ukraine as he can, with limited damage & post-conflict resistance.
He wants the EUros to keep buying his gas & oil, with limited or no disruption.
...and you're NOT OK with that, right?
I'm just telling you what I see, so far. I'm relieved that the initial strikes are not as brutal as they could be, but this thing is just getting started.
I want this to end asap, with minimum loss of life & before it forces our NATO allies to have to make difficult decisions.
Despite the rah rah -- this has not made NATO stronger or more committed. They are just more afraid.
Fear is a powerful motivator and quite rational in this case.
Rather than "stronger" let's just say more unified.
I notice you didn't answer the question directly.
I think you are correct that Putin's ideal scenario is for the Ukrainians to roll over, the Zelensky government to fall, and a puppet regime is put in place ala Belarus. As brutal as necessary to put down the ensuing insurgency, with Russian support.
Once that's done, who's next?
He ain't stopping until he's restored the Empire....and maybe more.
Yes, he wants to keep pumping, so that's gotta stop. And Russia needs to be totally removed from the international monetary system.
They need to totally crushed economically....which can stop when he withdraws. No puppet regime.
I think that'll require a well funded and supplied insurgency. Might not be quick. And so the pain for Russia won't abate quickly either.
This shooting war Russia has with Ukraine then moves into the high tech cyberwarfare that is the next step in the chess game. So our move is in even harsher sanctions, Putins move is to shut down our power grid or something similar. You don't think Putin has not thought out his next move??? I do, the west has already told him what they will do next. You think Putin won't respond?
Sure, but you think we don't have all the offensive cyber capabilities they have? And better defensive?
HINT: ours are way better.
This not going to be pleasant at all for us. But it's gonna be hell on Russia.
I have no idea MD. I know Putin knows our next move. Do we know his? Do you think he has not thought far ahead? I know our tech geeks are pretty damn good. They just don't know the next Russian move will be. Unless of course, and this is a long shot.. our geeks make a preemptive move first.
Lemme help you a bit. We already have the mechanisms in place to shut down their grids, their water, their banks, whatever. already in place. Would have to flip the switches.
They likely have some of those as well, but we've been working very hard to address those vulnerabilities...we won't catch them all.
And sure, Putin has thought about this. Very canny...but also quite removed from reality. No one left to tell him the truth he doesn't want to hear...and he has the enormous true believer ego that he's the strong man who will restore the empire...but that may well be what results in Russia's full collapse.
The problem we really do face is whether, in the throes of that collapse, he goes nuclear and no one stops him. Scary.
"Lemme help you a bit. We already have the mechanisms in place to shut down their grids, their water, their banks, whatever. already in place. Would have to flip the switches."
Yet our spooks couldn't figure out and report to Bob Mueller how the Russians tried to steal the election??? You think the Russians, who according to everything you have been saying about them here for months, don't have the same capabilities. You think they are that stupid?? i don't, this is like Bobby Fischer vs Boris Spassky back in the day. You can only HOPE our spooks our better. None of us know that for certain. FTR, in a box in my basement I still have my worn out copy of Bobby Fischer teaches chess. i was a damn good chess player back in the day...
good lord, we know what they did and we indicted them for it.
(BTW, we just sanctioned one of the key groups).
I do have some insights into this world, and not just through my basement dweller who is in that world professionally.
I don't doubt what you say. The problem goes back to something I have pointed out here before.. there is what you know.. what you think you know and what you can prove. I'm sure our spooks know alot.. but what can they prove? Does their knowledge give you some sort of comfort in comparison to what the Russian spooks know about us?
We don't make mistakes, we have happy accidents.
Bob Ross:
old salt wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 3:10 pmDespite the rah rah -- this has not made NATO stronger or more committed. They are just more afraid.
If you were sitting in a job in a NATO county's foreign ministry, you'd probably be sweating bullets TOO today...
..you saw where Sweden and Finland are stepping up efforts - exploring - the wisdom of entering NATO, yeah?
..
Of course they are
.
Republicans are too busy telling everyone how brilliant Putin is to shut up for five seconds, and consider all the downsides for Putin.
Many of them hate democrats more than they hate Putin…and they can’t help but to show their slip on this point. And I’m getting sick of it.
Putin knows and understands the downsides. He is just doesn't give a chit about them. How this plays out in the long run is what matters. It is the Democrats running the country, their problem to fix. What will the Democrats do when the Chicoms invade Taiwan?? The Chicoms know an opportunity when they see it. You want to bet be a steak dinner the Chicoms don't take advantage of a weak US POTUS?? Taiwan is going down, the time is right, there will never be a better chance for the Chicoms. BTW, I like my steak rare.
Why are you worried about it? You can’t do anything.
Go change your pants. You ever see him in concert?
No need to change pants, those depends work wonders, as long as you don't mind wearing sweat pants alot. You get use to that squishy feeling in your backside.
I was going to mention depends but gave you the benefit of the doubt. You ever see Bobby McFerrin in concert?
I'm stunned, you giving me the benefit of the doubt. No I never saw Bobby McFerrin in concert. I do like his work that I have heard, but it is not much.
He performed on campus back when I was in school. Never really liked him or Al Jarreau for that matter.
Brooklyn wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 5:09 pm
For many years on LP and here, pro war right wingers were always disgusted at anti war protests and actions. Today there were anti war protests in Moscow by the hippie population types there. I imagine that forum right wingers are enraged over all this as they love war and happily applaud every occasion when it happens. I understand about 1,000 were arrested. Sadly (as far as right wingers are concerned) the police arrested but did not club, gas, or stomp on them like American cops do. I've been waiting for forum right wingers to express their usual howls of protest re these anti war malcontents.
So let's hear it forum right wingers. Let's see you condemn anti war protesters in Moscow like you've done with their counterparts here in the USA.
... I keep hearing the number 1700.
Yes, I've seen different numbers reported. But the one thing that remains consistent is that cops are not bloodying up anyone as the Gestapo cops do here.
It has been proven a hundred times that the surest way to the heart of any man, black or white, honest or dishonest, is through justice and fairness.
Brooklyn wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 5:09 pm
For many years on LP and here, pro war right wingers were always disgusted at anti war protests and actions. Today there were anti war protests in Moscow by the hippie population types there. I imagine that forum right wingers are enraged over all this as they love war and happily applaud every occasion when it happens. I understand about 1,000 were arrested. Sadly (as far as right wingers are concerned) the police arrested but did not club, gas, or stomp on them like American cops do. I've been waiting for forum right wingers to express their usual howls of protest re these anti war malcontents.
So let's hear it forum right wingers. Let's see you condemn anti war protesters in Moscow like you've done with their counterparts here in the USA.
... I keep hearing the number 1700.
Yes, I've seen different numbers reported. But the one thing that remains consistent is that cops are not bloodying up anyone as the Gestapo cops do here.
... at least not that the western media has been able to get on camera.
Brooklyn wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 5:09 pm
For many years on LP and here, pro war right wingers were always disgusted at anti war protests and actions. Today there were anti war protests in Moscow by the hippie population types there. I imagine that forum right wingers are enraged over all this as they love war and happily applaud every occasion when it happens. I understand about 1,000 were arrested. Sadly (as far as right wingers are concerned) the police arrested but did not club, gas, or stomp on them like American cops do. I've been waiting for forum right wingers to express their usual howls of protest re these anti war malcontents.
So let's hear it forum right wingers. Let's see you condemn anti war protesters in Moscow like you've done with their counterparts here in the USA.
... I keep hearing the number 1700.
Yes, I've seen different numbers reported. But the one thing that remains consistent is that cops are not bloodying up anyone as the Gestapo cops do here.
Canadian police right there too.
Also if you haven’t noticed, American Democrats are the ones stoking war possibilities now. Republicans seem more likely to withdraw from international meddling.
Also if you haven’t noticed, American Democrats are the ones stoking war possibilities now. Republicans seem more likely to withdraw from international meddling.
Canadian cops aren't killing anyone unlike US cops.
MDlaxfan76 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 4:02 pm
I notice you didn't answer the question directly. Ok or not ok with the status you described? Restate the perceived unanswered question & I'll give it a shot, although I hope the following answers it for you..
I think you are correct that Putin's ideal scenario is for the Ukrainians to roll over, the Zelensky government to fall, and a puppet regime is put in place ala Belarus. As brutal as necessary to put down the ensuing insurgency, with Russian support. imho -- the best we can hope for is to minimize blood shed & hold NATO together long enough to build the resolve to do what's necessary to keep Putin from moving on the Baltic states next.
Once that's done, who's next? Nobody, if this forces NATO to get their sh!t together.
If not, Georgia or the Baltic states could be next.
He ain't stopping until he's restored the Empire....and maybe more. imho -- a Union of Russia, Belarus, Ukraine & demilitarization/arms limits along NATO's border with that Union could be sufficient to satisfy his Czarist aspirations.
Yes, he wants to keep pumping, so that's gotta stop. And Russia needs to be totally removed from the international monetary system. The EUros can't & won't let either happen.
They need to totally crushed economically....which can stop when he withdraws. No puppet regime. We can't do it alone & neither Wall St or Main St will accept what that would require
I think that'll require a well funded and supplied insurgency. Might not be quick. And so the pain for Russia won't abate quickly either. You, HR McMaster & Amb Bill Young are the only ones I've heard who give an insurgency a chance for anything other than prolonging the bloodletting. Is it worth turning Ukraine into another Afghanistan ?
dislaxxic wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 3:05 pm
old salt wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 2:54 pm
Putin hopes to annex as much of Ukraine as he can, with limited damage & post-conflict resistance.
He wants the EUros to keep buying his gas & oil, with limited or no disruption. ...and you're NOT OK with that, right?
Whether the insurgency is successful or not depends on the Ukrainians who decide to fight it, not any American's opinions. But it will also depend on its funding and supply of weapons. The insurgency will have the ability, ala the Taliban and Pakistan, to be trained and supplied nearby.
But in no way am I suggesting it's a piece of cake, much less that the insurgency alone will be sufficient.
And I think this won't be just within Ukraine. I'd expect bombs going off in Moscow and all over Russia. All sorts of disruptions.
Of course, as I said before Putin may be able to install a brutal puppet regime and move on to the next challenge.
Unless we choke off his economy.
It all sounds good if you think you can predict what Putin's counter moves would be. I'm not sure at all what he would do, but these seem like escalations where we could trigger something far worse. Why don't we offer him a way out? The Russian areas of Ukraine and pack up and go home? He's going to take those at a minimum anyway.
Taking isn't the same as holding, and the bottomline is that aggressors can't be rewarded for being aggressive.
China is part of the perspective to come and that's why they're not condemning Putin the same way. It'll be interesting how they feel when their state owned banks get sanctioned if they do business with sanctioned Russians.
This really does have some very troubling ways it could escalate, but we really can't let the international rules mean nothing anymore. The West is toast in that scenario.
So, you may be right that at the end of the day (many days away, more likely years) Russia may hold those regions. But they will have paid a hell of a price.
Don't kid yourself that they'll stop otherwise.
... the Chinese are playing wait and see. They haven't really chosen a side yet.
jhu72 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 6:36 pm
CNN reporting the airport outside Kyiv that was initially taken by the Russians, remains contested tonight. It is not under Russian control.
MDlaxfan76 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 4:02 pm
I notice you didn't answer the question directly. Ok or not ok with the status you described? Restate the perceived unanswered question & I'll give it a shot, although I hope the following answers it for you..
I think you are correct that Putin's ideal scenario is for the Ukrainians to roll over, the Zelensky government to fall, and a puppet regime is put in place ala Belarus. As brutal as necessary to put down the ensuing insurgency, with Russian support. imho -- the best we can hope for is to minimize blood shed & hold NATO together long enough to build the resolve to do what's necessary to keep Putin from moving on the Baltic states next.
Once that's done, who's next? Nobody, if this forces NATO to get their sh!t together.
If not, Georgia or the Baltic states could be next.
He ain't stopping until he's restored the Empire....and maybe more. imho -- a Union of Russia, Belarus, Ukraine & demilitarization/arms limits along NATO's border with that Union could be sufficient to satisfy his Czarist aspirations.
Yes, he wants to keep pumping, so that's gotta stop. And Russia needs to be totally removed from the international monetary system. The EUros can't & won't let either happen.
They need to totally crushed economically....which can stop when he withdraws. No puppet regime. We can't do it alone & neither Wall St or Main St will accept what that would require
I think that'll require a well funded and supplied insurgency. Might not be quick. And so the pain for Russia won't abate quickly either. You, HR McMaster & Amb Bill Young are the only ones I've heard who give an insurgency a chance for anything other than prolonging the bloodletting. Is it worth turning Ukraine into another Afghanistan ?
dislaxxic wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 3:05 pm
old salt wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 2:54 pm
Putin hopes to annex as much of Ukraine as he can, with limited damage & post-conflict resistance.
He wants the EUros to keep buying his gas & oil, with limited or no disruption. ...and you're NOT OK with that, right?
Whether the insurgency is successful or not depends on the Ukrainians who decide to fight it, not any American's opinions. But it will also depend on its funding and supply of weapons. The insurgency will have the ability, ala the Taliban and Pakistan, to be trained and supplied nearby.
But in no way am I suggesting it's a piece of cake, much less that the insurgency alone will be sufficient.
And I think this won't be just within Ukraine. I'd expect bombs going off in Moscow and all over Russia. All sorts of disruptions.
Of course, as I said before Putin may be able to install a brutal puppet regime and move on to the next challenge.
Unless we choke off his economy.
It all sounds good if you think you can predict what Putin's counter moves would be. I'm not sure at all what he would do, but these seem like escalations where we could trigger something far worse. Why don't we offer him a way out? The Russian areas of Ukraine and pack up and go home? He's going to take those at a minimum anyway.
Taking isn't the same as holding, and the bottomline is that aggressors can't be rewarded for being aggressive.
China is part of the perspective to come and that's why they're not condemning Putin the same way. It'll be interesting how they feel when their state owned banks get sanctioned if they do business with sanctioned Russians.
This really does have some very troubling ways it could escalate, but we really can't let the international rules mean nothing anymore. The West is toast in that scenario.
So, you may be right that at the end of the day (many days away, more likely years) Russia may hold those regions. But they will have paid a hell of a price.
Don't kid yourself that they'll stop otherwise.
... the Chinese are playing wait and see. They haven't really chosen a side yet.
Let's just say that they are waffling. It's not really in their interest to take a hard stand against territorial claims based up 'language' and military force.
So, what the West does in this instance is going to have ripple effects, and not just with China.
It's also why HW Bush was able to come down so hard, with European support, on Saddam's incursion over Kuwait. Sent a message.
Unfortunately, the power dynamics are tougher with this one, given the nuclear arsenals. But we have to take a stand nevertheless.
My daughter (7) with the news on: “Why, why does Russia need more room, they have plenty!”
Now I love those cowboys, I love their gold
Love my uncle, God rest his soul
Taught me good, Lord, taught me all I know
Taught me so well, that I grabbed that gold
I left his dead ass there by the side of the road, yeah
You think the Russians, who according to everything you have been saying about them here for months, don't have the same capabilities. You think they are that stupid?? i don't, this is like Bobby Fischer vs Boris Spassky back in the day. You can only HOPE our spooks our better. None of us know that for certain. FTR, in a box in my basement I still have my worn out copy of Bobby Fischer teaches chess. i was a damn good chess player back in the day...
No I never saw Bobby McFerrin in concert. I do like his work that I have heard, but it is not much.
