All Things Russia & Ukraine

[seacoaster]

And then there is this summary of Senator Tommy Tuberville's recent interview (from Twitter):

.@SenTuberville claims Putin is invading Ukraine because Russia is a communist country that needs more land.

“He can’t feed his people,” said Tuberville. “It’s a communist country, so he can’t feed his people, so they need more farmland.”

NM that Russia is no longer a communist country...

So it says on paper....but really, what is it...really?

It’s a corporatist market economy.

[MDlaxfan76]

US military estimates it would take 3.5 to 4 million man invasion force to occupy all of Ukraine. Putin is short by about a factor of 20. Given what looks like the heaviest fighting, the east, the moves in the west (Lviv, etc.) are feints most likely. At the end of the day, Ukrainian resistance will determine the outcome. The US forces are going to Poland and Lithuanian to keep the Konigsberg corridor closed.

If there’s an insurgency? Putin is sooooo F’d

Link ? Is that a Ukraine specific analysis, or a generic country that size, with that population.

Link to what? What part of “if” is unclear ?

Why are you unable to consider downsides for Putin?

You can wax poetic on the downsides to everything else… what’s your deal here? Don’t have the time?

A link to the US military estimates to which jhu72 refers. I'd like to learn more about them.

You piped up in the 9 min before I replied to jhu72.

... watch CNN, I took it to mean assuming indigenous resistance.

I may have seen it overnight. Was it a former military talking head or Pentagon reporter ?

Given Ukraine's history & demographics, the potential for a Vichy regime is significant.

.. former military, recent retire as I recall.

Yes. Vichy is a possibility. If Ukraine wants to be free, Ukraine will be free. They will have to fight for it, with NATO sanctions making it more and more expensive for Russia economically and the Ukrainians spilling Russian blood, as much as necessary. IMO Putin himself is in trouble, the longer this goes on.

Expect "terrorist" bombs inside Russia, including Moscow.

About 50% of Russians support the war in Ukraine...that's a whole lot of Russians who do not. Plus Ukrainians...good luck figuring out who is who.

... and that 50-50 split is along generational lines. The young want NOTHING to do with this!

Note I am not sure I buy that even 50% of Russians support this.

I think it might be more fair to say that the percentage of approving go down as the access to truth goes up. Most Russians, unfortunately, don't really know what is happening beyond the internal propaganda. Putin locked down independent journalism incredibly hard this past year.

Supposedly, Putin's personal approval went up as he saber rattled, it'll be interesting where it goes as the body bags come home and truth filters through eventually...and when bread lines start up...Sure, there's nostalgia for "empire" but the realities of life behind the Iron Curtain will get a whole lot of folks' attention...and it's much, much harder to block truth now in the digital age...and Russia doesn't have anywhere near the grip that the CCCP has on such, though it wants to.

[MDlaxfan76]

And then there is this summary of Senator Tommy Tuberville's recent interview (from Twitter):

.@SenTuberville claims Putin is invading Ukraine because Russia is a communist country that needs more land.

“He can’t feed his people,” said Tuberville. “It’s a communist country, so he can’t feed his people, so they need more farmland.”

NM that Russia is no longer a communist country...

So it says on paper....but really, what is it...really?

It’s a corporatist market economy.

An authoritarian kleptocracy...

[seacoaster]

And then there is this summary of Senator Tommy Tuberville's recent interview (from Twitter):

.@SenTuberville claims Putin is invading Ukraine because Russia is a communist country that needs more land.

“He can’t feed his people,” said Tuberville. “It’s a communist country, so he can’t feed his people, so they need more farmland.”

NM that Russia is no longer a communist country...

So it says on paper....but really, what is it...really?

It’s a corporatist market economy.

An authoritarian kleptocracy...

I was being diplomatic!

[MDlaxfan76]

And then there is this summary of Senator Tommy Tuberville's recent interview (from Twitter):

.@SenTuberville claims Putin is invading Ukraine because Russia is a communist country that needs more land.

“He can’t feed his people,” said Tuberville. “It’s a communist country, so he can’t feed his people, so they need more farmland.”

NM that Russia is no longer a communist country...

So it says on paper....but really, what is it...really?

It’s a corporatist market economy.

An authoritarian kleptocracy...

I was being diplomatic!

yes, you were.

[MDlaxfan76]

And then there is this summary of Senator Tommy Tuberville's recent interview (from Twitter):

.@SenTuberville claims Putin is invading Ukraine because Russia is a communist country that needs more land.

“He can’t feed his people,” said Tuberville. “It’s a communist country, so he can’t feed his people, so they need more farmland.”

NM that Russia is no longer a communist country...

So it says on paper....but really, what is it...really?

It’s a corporatist market economy.

An authoritarian kleptocracy...

I was being diplomatic!

yes, you were.

[old salt]

I notice you didn't answer the question directly. Ok or not ok with the status you described?
Restate the perceived unanswered question & I'll give it a shot, although I hope the following answers it for you..

I think you are correct that Putin's ideal scenario is for the Ukrainians to roll over, the Zelensky government to fall, and a puppet regime is put in place ala Belarus. As brutal as necessary to put down the ensuing insurgency, with Russian support.
imho -- the best we can hope for is to minimize blood shed & hold NATO together long enough to build the resolve to do what's necessary to keep Putin from moving on the Baltic states next.

Once that's done, who's next?
Nobody, if this forces NATO to get their sh!t together.
If not, Georgia or the Baltic states could be next.

He ain't stopping until he's restored the Empire....and maybe more.
imho -- a Union of Russia, Belarus, Ukraine & demilitarization/arms limits along NATO's border with that Union could be sufficient to satisfy his Czarist aspirations.

Yes, he wants to keep pumping, so that's gotta stop. And Russia needs to be totally removed from the international monetary system.
The EUros can't & won't let either happen.

They need to totally crushed economically....which can stop when he withdraws. No puppet regime.
We can't do it alone & neither Wall St or Main St will accept what that would require

I think that'll require a well funded and supplied insurgency. Might not be quick. And so the pain for Russia won't abate quickly either.
You, HR McMaster & Amb Bill Young are the only ones I've heard who give an insurgency a chance for anything other than prolonging the bloodletting. Is it worth turning Ukraine into another Afghanistan ?

[jhu72]

And then there is this summary of Senator Tommy Tuberville's recent interview (from Twitter):

.@SenTuberville claims Putin is invading Ukraine because Russia is a communist country that needs more land.

“He can’t feed his people,” said Tuberville. “It’s a communist country, so he can’t feed his people, so they need more farmland.”

NM that Russia is no longer a communist country...

Dumb as a rock.

You have to make allowances for Tubby and his ilk. They like Russia now because they are White, Christian (pretenders) that are being sold that way at least by Putin. As you say, dumb as a rock!

I personally like Russians (distinct from the nation) for a whole lot of other reasons.

[Brooklyn]

Anyone who thinks Biden is weak? Grab a gun, and head to Ukraine. No one is stopping you .

So tell us, why was Biden not able to walk tall and carry a big stick on this one?

What goes on there is none of his business. He is President of the USA, not of Ukraine. Nobody there pays his salary or even gives a shttt about him.

[youthathletics]

And then there is this summary of Senator Tommy Tuberville's recent interview (from Twitter):

.@SenTuberville claims Putin is invading Ukraine because Russia is a communist country that needs more land.

“He can’t feed his people,” said Tuberville. “It’s a communist country, so he can’t feed his people, so they need more farmland.”

NM that Russia is no longer a communist country...

So it says on paper....but really, what is it...really?

It’s a corporatist market economy.

An authoritarian kleptocracy...

I was being diplomatic!

yes, you were.

So we are up 3 or 4 different answers now...seems its clear as mud.

[Typical Lax Dad]

Despite the rah rah -- this has not made NATO stronger or more committed. They are just more afraid.

If you were sitting in a job in a NATO county's foreign ministry, you'd probably be sweating bullets TOO today...

..you saw where Sweden and Finland are stepping up efforts - exploring - the wisdom of entering NATO, yeah?

..

Of course they are
.
Republicans are too busy telling everyone how brilliant Putin is to shut up for five seconds, and consider all the downsides for Putin.

Many of them hate democrats more than they hate Putin…and they can’t help but to show their slip on this point. And I’m getting sick of it.

Putin knows and understands the downsides. He is just doesn't give a chit about them. How this plays out in the long run is what matters. It is the Democrats running the country, their problem to fix. What will the Democrats do when the Chicoms invade Taiwan?? The Chicoms know an opportunity when they see it. You want to bet be a steak dinner the Chicoms don't take advantage of a weak US POTUS?? Taiwan is going down, the time is right, there will never be a better chance for the Chicoms. BTW, I like my steak rare.

Why are you worried about it? You can’t do anything.

https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=do ... 6PC%3dU531

Go change your pants. You ever see him in concert?

[cradleandshoot]

Putin hopes to annex as much of Ukraine as he can, with limited damage & post-conflict resistance.
He wants the EUros to keep buying his gas & oil, with limited or no disruption.

...and you're NOT OK with that, right?

I'm just telling you what I see, so far. I'm relieved that the initial strikes are not as brutal as they could be, but this thing is just getting started.

I want this to end asap, with minimum loss of life & before it forces our NATO allies to have to make difficult decisions.
Despite the rah rah -- this has not made NATO stronger or more committed. They are just more afraid.

Fear is a powerful motivator and quite rational in this case.

Rather than "stronger" let's just say more unified.

I notice you didn't answer the question directly.

I think you are correct that Putin's ideal scenario is for the Ukrainians to roll over, the Zelensky government to fall, and a puppet regime is put in place ala Belarus. As brutal as necessary to put down the ensuing insurgency, with Russian support.

Once that's done, who's next?

He ain't stopping until he's restored the Empire....and maybe more.

Yes, he wants to keep pumping, so that's gotta stop. And Russia needs to be totally removed from the international monetary system.

They need to totally crushed economically....which can stop when he withdraws. No puppet regime.

I think that'll require a well funded and supplied insurgency. Might not be quick. And so the pain for Russia won't abate quickly either.

This shooting war Russia has with Ukraine then moves into the high tech cyberwarfare that is the next step in the chess game. So our move is in even harsher sanctions, Putins move is to shut down our power grid or something similar. You don't think that Putin has not thought out his next move??? I do, the west has already told him what they will do next. You think Putin won't respond?

Sure, but you think we don't have all the offensive cyber capabilities they have? And better defensive?
HINT: ours are way better.

This not going to be pleasant at all for us. But it's gonna be hell on Russia.

I have no idea MD. I know Putin knows our next move. Do we know his? Do you think he has not thought far ahead? I know our tech geeks are pretty damn good. They just don't know the next Russian move will be. Unless of course, and this is a long shot.. our geeks make a preemptive move first.

[MDlaxfan76]

I notice you didn't answer the question directly. Ok or not ok with the status you described?
Restate the perceived unanswered question & I'll give it a shot, although I hope the following answers it for you..

I think you are correct that Putin's ideal scenario is for the Ukrainians to roll over, the Zelensky government to fall, and a puppet regime is put in place ala Belarus. As brutal as necessary to put down the ensuing insurgency, with Russian support.
imho -- the best we can hope for is to minimize blood shed & hold NATO together long enough to build the resolve to do what's necessary to keep Putin from moving on the Baltic states next.

Once that's done, who's next?
Nobody, if this forces NATO to get their sh!t together.
If not, Georgia or the Baltic states could be next.

He ain't stopping until he's restored the Empire....and maybe more.
imho -- a Union of Russia, Belarus, Ukraine & demilitarization/arms limits along NATO's border with that Union could be sufficient to satisfy his Czarist aspirations.

Yes, he wants to keep pumping, so that's gotta stop. And Russia needs to be totally removed from the international monetary system.
The EUros can't & won't let either happen.

They need to totally crushed economically....which can stop when he withdraws. No puppet regime.
We can't do it alone & neither Wall St or Main St will accept what that would require

I think that'll require a well funded and supplied insurgency. Might not be quick. And so the pain for Russia won't abate quickly either.
You, HR McMaster & Amb Bill Young are the only ones I've heard who give an insurgency a chance for anything other than prolonging the bloodletting. Is it worth turning Ukraine into another Afghanistan ?

dislaxxic wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 3:05 pm
old salt wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 2:54 pm
Putin hopes to annex as much of Ukraine as he can, with limited damage & post-conflict resistance.
He wants the EUros to keep buying his gas & oil, with limited or no disruption.
...and you're NOT OK with that, right?

Whether the insurgency is successful or not depends on the Ukrainians who decide to fight it, not any American's opinions. But it will also depend on its funding and supply of weapons. The insurgency will have the ability, ala the Taliban and Pakistan, to be trained and supplied nearby.

But in no way am I suggesting it's a piece of cake, much less that the insurgency alone will be sufficient.

And I think this won't be just within Ukraine. I'd expect bombs going off in Moscow and all over Russia. All sorts of disruptions.

Of course, as I said before Putin may be able to install a brutal puppet regime and move on to the next challenge.

Unless we choke off his economy.

[cradleandshoot]

Despite the rah rah -- this has not made NATO stronger or more committed. They are just more afraid.

If you were sitting in a job in a NATO county's foreign ministry, you'd probably be sweating bullets TOO today...

..you saw where Sweden and Finland are stepping up efforts - exploring - the wisdom of entering NATO, yeah?

..

Of course they are
.
Republicans are too busy telling everyone how brilliant Putin is to shut up for five seconds, and consider all the downsides for Putin.

Many of them hate democrats more than they hate Putin…and they can’t help but to show their slip on this point. And I’m getting sick of it.

Putin knows and understands the downsides. He is just doesn't give a chit about them. How this plays out in the long run is what matters. It is the Democrats running the country, their problem to fix. What will the Democrats do when the Chicoms invade Taiwan?? The Chicoms know an opportunity when they see it. You want to bet be a steak dinner the Chicoms don't take advantage of a weak US POTUS?? Taiwan is going down, the time is right, there will never be a better chance for the Chicoms. BTW, I like my steak rare.

Why are you worried about it? You can’t do anything.

https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=do ... 6PC%3dU531

Go change your pants. You ever see him in concert?

No need to change pants, those depends work wonders, as long as you don't mind wearing sweat pants alot. You get use to that squishy feeling in your backside.

[MDlaxfan76]

Putin hopes to annex as much of Ukraine as he can, with limited damage & post-conflict resistance.
He wants the EUros to keep buying his gas & oil, with limited or no disruption.

...and you're NOT OK with that, right?

I'm just telling you what I see, so far. I'm relieved that the initial strikes are not as brutal as they could be, but this thing is just getting started.

I want this to end asap, with minimum loss of life & before it forces our NATO allies to have to make difficult decisions.
Despite the rah rah -- this has not made NATO stronger or more committed. They are just more afraid.

Fear is a powerful motivator and quite rational in this case.

Rather than "stronger" let's just say more unified.

I notice you didn't answer the question directly.

I think you are correct that Putin's ideal scenario is for the Ukrainians to roll over, the Zelensky government to fall, and a puppet regime is put in place ala Belarus. As brutal as necessary to put down the ensuing insurgency, with Russian support.

Once that's done, who's next?

He ain't stopping until he's restored the Empire....and maybe more.

Yes, he wants to keep pumping, so that's gotta stop. And Russia needs to be totally removed from the international monetary system.

They need to totally crushed economically....which can stop when he withdraws. No puppet regime.

I think that'll require a well funded and supplied insurgency. Might not be quick. And so the pain for Russia won't abate quickly either.

This shooting war Russia has with Ukraine then moves into the high tech cyberwarfare that is the next step in the chess game. So our move is in even harsher sanctions, Putins move is to shut down our power grid or something similar. You don't think Putin has not thought out his next move??? I do, the west has already told him what they will do next. You think Putin won't respond?

Sure, but you think we don't have all the offensive cyber capabilities they have? And better defensive?
HINT: ours are way better.

This not going to be pleasant at all for us. But it's gonna be hell on Russia.

I have no idea MD. I know Putin knows our next move. Do we know his? Do you think he has not thought far ahead? I know our tech geeks are pretty damn good. They just don't know the next Russian move will be. Unless of course, and this is a long shot.. our geeks make a preemptive move first.

Lemme help you a bit. We already have the mechanisms in place to shut down their grids, their water, their banks, whatever. already in place. Would have to flip the switches.

They likely have some of those as well, but we've been working very hard to address those vulnerabilities...we won't catch them all.

And sure, Putin has thought about this. Very canny...but also quite removed from reality. No one left to tell him the truth he doesn't want to hear...and he has the enormous true believer ego that he's the strong man who will restore the empire...but that may well be what results in Russia's full collapse.

The problem we really do face is whether, in the throes of that collapse, he goes nuclear and no one stops him. Scary.

[MDlaxfan76]

And then there is this summary of Senator Tommy Tuberville's recent interview (from Twitter):

.@SenTuberville claims Putin is invading Ukraine because Russia is a communist country that needs more land.

“He can’t feed his people,” said Tuberville. “It’s a communist country, so he can’t feed his people, so they need more farmland.”

NM that Russia is no longer a communist country...

So it says on paper....but really, what is it...really?

It’s a corporatist market economy.

An authoritarian kleptocracy...

I was being diplomatic!

yes, you were.

So we are up 3 or 4 different answers now...seems its clear as mud.

I've only seen 2 responses to the "communist" claim, which is itself patently dumb.

And those two responses are saying the same thing, though I was describing more the political than seacoaster who was describing the economics. Put them together as you wish.

[get it to x]

I notice you didn't answer the question directly. Ok or not ok with the status you described?
Restate the perceived unanswered question & I'll give it a shot, although I hope the following answers it for you..

I think you are correct that Putin's ideal scenario is for the Ukrainians to roll over, the Zelensky government to fall, and a puppet regime is put in place ala Belarus. As brutal as necessary to put down the ensuing insurgency, with Russian support.
imho -- the best we can hope for is to minimize blood shed & hold NATO together long enough to build the resolve to do what's necessary to keep Putin from moving on the Baltic states next.

Once that's done, who's next?
Nobody, if this forces NATO to get their sh!t together.
If not, Georgia or the Baltic states could be next.

He ain't stopping until he's restored the Empire....and maybe more.
imho -- a Union of Russia, Belarus, Ukraine & demilitarization/arms limits along NATO's border with that Union could be sufficient to satisfy his Czarist aspirations.

Yes, he wants to keep pumping, so that's gotta stop. And Russia needs to be totally removed from the international monetary system.
The EUros can't & won't let either happen.

They need to totally crushed economically....which can stop when he withdraws. No puppet regime.
We can't do it alone & neither Wall St or Main St will accept what that would require

I think that'll require a well funded and supplied insurgency. Might not be quick. And so the pain for Russia won't abate quickly either.
You, HR McMaster & Amb Bill Young are the only ones I've heard who give an insurgency a chance for anything other than prolonging the bloodletting. Is it worth turning Ukraine into another Afghanistan ?

dislaxxic wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 3:05 pm
old salt wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 2:54 pm
Putin hopes to annex as much of Ukraine as he can, with limited damage & post-conflict resistance.
He wants the EUros to keep buying his gas & oil, with limited or no disruption.
...and you're NOT OK with that, right?

Whether the insurgency is successful or not depends on the Ukrainians who decide to fight it, not any American's opinions. But it will also depend on its funding and supply of weapons. The insurgency will have the ability, ala the Taliban and Pakistan, to be trained and supplied nearby.

But in no way am I suggesting it's a piece of cake, much less that the insurgency alone will be sufficient.

And I think this won't be just within Ukraine. I'd expect bombs going off in Moscow and all over Russia. All sorts of disruptions.

Of course, as I said before Putin may be able to install a brutal puppet regime and move on to the next challenge.

Unless we choke off his economy.

It all sounds good if you think you can predict what Putin's counter moves would be. I'm not sure at all what he would do, but these seem like escalations where we could trigger something far worse. Why don't we offer him a way out? The Russian areas of Ukraine and pack up and go home? He's going to take those at a minimum anyway.

[old salt]

I notice you didn't answer the question directly. Ok or not ok with the status you described?
Restate the perceived unanswered question & I'll give it a shot, although I hope the following answers it for you..

I think you are correct that Putin's ideal scenario is for the Ukrainians to roll over, the Zelensky government to fall, and a puppet regime is put in place ala Belarus. As brutal as necessary to put down the ensuing insurgency, with Russian support.
imho -- the best we can hope for is to minimize blood shed & hold NATO together long enough to build the resolve to do what's necessary to keep Putin from moving on the Baltic states next.

Once that's done, who's next?
Nobody, if this forces NATO to get their sh!t together.
If not, Georgia or the Baltic states could be next.

He ain't stopping until he's restored the Empire....and maybe more.
imho -- a Union of Russia, Belarus, Ukraine & demilitarization/arms limits along NATO's border with that Union could be sufficient to satisfy his Czarist aspirations.

Yes, he wants to keep pumping, so that's gotta stop. And Russia needs to be totally removed from the international monetary system.
The EUros can't & won't let either happen.

They need to totally crushed economically....which can stop when he withdraws. No puppet regime.
We can't do it alone & neither Wall St or Main St will accept what that would require

I think that'll require a well funded and supplied insurgency. Might not be quick. And so the pain for Russia won't abate quickly either.
You, HR McMaster & Amb Bill Young are the only ones I've heard who give an insurgency a chance for anything other than prolonging the bloodletting. Is it worth turning Ukraine into another Afghanistan ?

dislaxxic wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 3:05 pm
old salt wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 2:54 pm
Putin hopes to annex as much of Ukraine as he can, with limited damage & post-conflict resistance.
He wants the EUros to keep buying his gas & oil, with limited or no disruption.
...and you're NOT OK with that, right?

Whether the insurgency is successful or not depends on the Ukrainians who decide to fight it, not any American's opinions. But it will also depend on its funding and supply of weapons. The insurgency will have the ability, ala the Taliban and Pakistan, to be trained and supplied nearby.

But in no way am I suggesting it's a piece of cake, much less that the insurgency alone will be sufficient.

And I think this won't be just within Ukraine. I'd expect bombs going off in Moscow and all over Russia. All sorts of disruptions.

Of course, as I said before Putin may be able to install a brutal puppet regime and move on to the next challenge.

Unless we choke off his economy.

I'm not HAPPY with any of this.
Is that what "OK with that" means ?
I've posted what I estimate is the best we can realistically expect.
I wish I could share your optimism about the outcome of an insurrecction, sanctions, the will of our NATO allies & the fortitude of the US public, but I don't.

[Brooklyn]

For many years on LP and here, pro war right wingers were always disgusted at anti war protests and actions. Today there were anti war protests in Moscow by the hippie population types there. I imagine that forum right wingers are enraged over all this as they love war and happily applaud every occasion when it happens. I understand about 1,000 were arrested. Sadly (as far as right wingers are concerned) the police arrested but did not club, gas, or stomp on them like American cops do. I've been waiting for forum right wingers to express their usual howls of protest re these anti war malcontents.

So let's hear it forum right wingers. Let's see you condemn anti war protesters in Moscow like you've done with their counterparts here in the USA.

[a fan]

Despite the rah rah -- this has not made NATO stronger or more committed. They are just more afraid.

If you were sitting in a job in a NATO county's foreign ministry, you'd probably be sweating bullets TOO today...

..you saw where Sweden and Finland are stepping up efforts - exploring - the wisdom of entering NATO, yeah?

..

Of course they are
.
Republicans are too busy telling everyone how brilliant Putin is to shut up for five seconds, and consider all the downsides for Putin.

Many of them hate democrats more than they hat Putin…and they can’t help but to show their slip on this point. And I’m getting sick of it.

...& you've been telling us for years that Putin's too weak to do what he's just done.
You should be getting sick of being wrong.

Says the guy who thinks Ukraine is part of NATO. What are you talking about ?

Exactly. I never said Putin was too weak to invade a defenseless country.

And you never said Ukraine was part of nato.

Are we done making stuff up now?