All Things Russia & Ukraine

[youthathletics]

Anyone who thinks Biden is weak? Grab a gun, and head to Ukraine. No one is stopping you .

So tell us, why was Biden not able to walk tall and carry a big stick on this one?

[jhu72]

US military estimates it would take 3.5 to 4 million man invasion force to occupy all of Ukraine. Putin is short by about a factor of 20. Given what looks like the heaviest fighting, the east, the moves in the west (Lviv, etc.) are feints most likely. At the end of the day, Ukrainian resistance will determine the outcome. The US forces are going to Poland and Lithuanian to keep the Konigsberg corridor closed.

If there’s an insurgency? Putin is sooooo F’d

Link ? Is that a Ukraine specific analysis, or a generic country that size, with that population.

Link to what? What part of “if” is unclear ?

Why are you unable to consider downsides for Putin?

You can wax poetic on the downsides to everything else… what’s your deal here? Don’t have the time?

A link to the US military estimates to which jhu72 refers. I'd like to learn more about them.

You piped up in the 9 min before I replied to jhu72.

... watch CNN, I took it to mean assuming indigenous resistance.

I may have seen it overnight. Was it a former military talking head or Pentagon reporter ?

Given Ukraine's history & demographics, the potential for a Vichy regime is significant.

.. former military, recent retire as I recall.

Yes. Vichy is a possibility. If Ukraine wants to be free, Ukraine will be free. They will have to fight for it, with NATO sanctions making it more and more expensive for Russia economically and the Ukrainians spilling Russian blood, as much as necessary. IMO Putin himself is in trouble, the longer this goes on.

[MDlaxfan76]

Putin hopes to annex as much of Ukraine as he can, with limited damage & post-conflict resistance.
He wants the EUros to keep buying his gas & oil, with limited or no disruption.

...and you're NOT OK with that, right?

I'm just telling you what I see, so far. I'm relieved that the initial strikes are not as brutal as they could be, but this thing is just getting started.

I want this to end asap, with minimum loss of life & before it forces our NATO allies to have to make difficult decisions.
Despite the rah rah -- this has not made NATO stronger or more committed. They are just more afraid.

Fear is a powerful motivator and quite rational in this case.

Rather than "stronger" let's just say more unified.

I notice you didn't answer the question directly. Ok or not ok with the status you described?

I think you are correct that Putin's ideal scenario is for the Ukrainians to roll over, the Zelensky government to fall, and a puppet regime is put in place ala Belarus. As brutal as necessary to put down the ensuing insurgency, with Russian support.

Once that's done, who's next?

He ain't stopping until he's restored the Empire....and maybe more.

Yes, he wants to keep pumping, so that's gotta stop. And Russia needs to be totally removed from the international monetary system.

They need to totally crushed economically....which can stop when he withdraws. No puppet regime.

I think that'll require a well funded and supplied insurgency. Might not be quick. And so the pain for Russia won't abate quickly either.

[cradleandshoot]

Despite the rah rah -- this has not made NATO stronger or more committed. They are just more afraid.

If you were sitting in a job in a NATO county's foreign ministry, you'd probably be sweating bullets TOO today...

..you saw where Sweden and Finland are stepping up efforts - exploring - the wisdom of entering NATO, yeah?

..

Of course they are
.
Republicans are too busy telling everyone how brilliant Putin is to shut up for five seconds, and consider all the downsides for Putin.

Many of them hate democrats more than they hate Putin…and they can’t help but to show their slip on this point. And I’m getting sick of it.

Putin knows and understands the downsides. He is just doesn't give a chit about them. How this plays out in the long run is what matters. It is the Democrats running the country, their problem to fix. What will the Democrats do when the Chicoms invade Taiwan?? The Chicoms know an opportunity when they see it. You want to bet be a steak dinner the Chicoms don't take advantage of a weak US

What I know is that every Dem president we’ve ever had is weak, and every Republican we’ve ever had is awesome and strong.

And I also know that this mentality has led us to be at nonstop war for 60+ years.

Militarily? I don’t care about Ukraine. I don’t care about Taiwan.

Remember when Bush invaded Iraq the first time to who the world he wasn’t soft? How many more Fing stupid wars do we need to have before we stop acting like men who are overcompensating for small units?

This isn’t our problem. Neither is Taiwan. We don’t have treaties with either.

Anyone who thinks Biden is weak? Grab a gun, and head to Ukraine. No one is stopping you .

You are not getting my point. No American cares about Ukraine, no American cares about Taiwan. I get that, the doctor that owns the medical center where my wife works has most of his family still living in Taiwan. How do you think HE feels about the country where he was born?? It gets waaaaaay more complicated. There is a huge number of Taiwanese/Americans living in the USA. Many of them very rich and very influential and many of them have family still living on Taiwan. They also donate huge sums of $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ to both parties to protect Taiwan and their homeland. Like you say... what do we care about Taiwan??? I get what you are saying but it becomes a very difficult problem to deal with. In the end... money talks and bullchit walks.

[jhu72]

Anyone who thinks Biden is weak? Grab a gun, and head to Ukraine. No one is stopping you .

So tell us, why was Biden not able to walk tall and carry a big stick on this one?

... what big stick is that?

[MDlaxfan76]

US military estimates it would take 3.5 to 4 million man invasion force to occupy all of Ukraine. Putin is short by about a factor of 20. Given what looks like the heaviest fighting, the east, the moves in the west (Lviv, etc.) are feints most likely. At the end of the day, Ukrainian resistance will determine the outcome. The US forces are going to Poland and Lithuanian to keep the Konigsberg corridor closed.

If there’s an insurgency? Putin is sooooo F’d

Link ? Is that a Ukraine specific analysis, or a generic country that size, with that population.

Link to what? What part of “if” is unclear ?

Why are you unable to consider downsides for Putin?

You can wax poetic on the downsides to everything else… what’s your deal here? Don’t have the time?

A link to the US military estimates to which jhu72 refers. I'd like to learn more about them.

You piped up in the 9 min before I replied to jhu72.

... watch CNN, I took it to mean assuming indigenous resistance.

I may have seen it overnight. Was it a former military talking head or Pentagon reporter ?

Given Ukraine's history & demographics, the potential for a Vichy regime is significant.

.. former military, recent retire as I recall.

Yes. Vichy is a possibility. If Ukraine wants to be free, Ukraine will be free. They will have to fight for it, with NATO sanctions making it more and more expensive for Russia economically and the Ukrainians spilling Russian blood, as much as necessary. IMO Putin himself is in trouble, the longer this goes on.

Expect "terrorist" bombs inside Russia, including Moscow.

About 50% of Russians support the war in Ukraine...that's a whole lot of Russians who do not. Plus Ukrainians...good luck figuring out who is who.

[old salt]

Despite the rah rah -- this has not made NATO stronger or more committed. They are just more afraid.

If you were sitting in a job in a NATO county's foreign ministry, you'd probably be sweating bullets TOO today...

..you saw where Sweden and Finland are stepping up efforts - exploring - the wisdom of entering NATO, yeah?

..

Of course they are
.
Republicans are too busy telling everyone how brilliant Putin is to shut up for five seconds, and consider all the downsides for Putin.

Many of them hate democrats more than they hat Putin…and they can’t help but to show their slip on this point. And I’m getting sick of it.

...& you've been telling us for years that Putin's too weak to do what he's just done.
You should be getting sick of being wrong.

Says the guy who thinks Ukraine is part of NATO. What are you talking about ?

Do I need to draw the NATO map for you and the rest of the republicans who are upset that we haven’t invaded a helpless country in the last few years?
Do you think I'm advocating US intervention ?
We aren’t responsible for Putins actions, OS.
My position -- US foreign policy decisions re the component states of former USSR since 1991 made Putin, or someone like him, inevitable.

You think we are. Its absurd.

[get it to x]

Despite the rah rah -- this has not made NATO stronger or more committed. They are just more afraid.

If you were sitting in a job in a NATO county's foreign ministry, you'd probably be sweating bullets TOO today...

..you saw where Sweden and Finland are stepping up efforts - exploring - the wisdom of entering NATO, yeah?

..

Of course they are
.
Republicans are too busy telling everyone how brilliant Putin is to shut up for five seconds, and consider all the downsides for Putin.

Many of them hate democrats more than they hate Putin…and they can’t help but to show their slip on this point. And I’m getting sick of it.

Putin knows and understands the downsides. He is just doesn't give a chit about them. How this plays out in the long run is what matters. It is the Democrats running the country, their problem to fix. What will the Democrats do when the Chicoms invade Taiwan?? The Chicoms know an opportunity when they see it. You want to bet be a steak dinner the Chicoms don't take advantage of a weak US

What I know is that every Dem president we’ve ever had is weak, and every Republican we’ve ever had is awesome and strong.

And I also know that this mentality has led us to be at nonstop war for 60+ years.

Militarily? I don’t care about Ukraine. I don’t care about Taiwan.

Remember when Bush invaded Iraq the first time to show the world he wasn’t soft? How many more Fing stupid wars do we need to have before we stop acting like men who are overcompensating for small units?

This isn’t our problem. Neither is Taiwan. We don’t have treaties with either.

Anyone who thinks Biden is weak? Grab a gun, and head to Ukraine. No one is stopping you .

Again we agree. Not an isolationist. Just not our fight. We are only partly to blame for this with our whole NATO expansion show. I get it, Putin is a thug, but we cut deals with Saudi Arabia, Turkey et al. Not real democracies. Treat someone like an enemy all the time and pretty soon, you have a real enemy. What happened to Glasnost? Trump isn't blameless either, as he has as much to do with driving Russia towards a closer relationship with China as Obama and Biden.

[RedFromMI]

From Al Franken, about 4 hours ago:

W looked into Putin’s eyes & saw his soul. Trump looked & saw Trump Tower Moscow. Biden looked & saw an evil f*ck.

[cradleandshoot]

Putin hopes to annex as much of Ukraine as he can, with limited damage & post-conflict resistance.
He wants the EUros to keep buying his gas & oil, with limited or no disruption.

...and you're NOT OK with that, right?

I'm just telling you what I see, so far. I'm relieved that the initial strikes are not as brutal as they could be, but this thing is just getting started.

I want this to end asap, with minimum loss of life & before it forces our NATO allies to have to make difficult decisions.
Despite the rah rah -- this has not made NATO stronger or more committed. They are just more afraid.

Fear is a powerful motivator and quite rational in this case.

Rather than "stronger" let's just say more unified.

I notice you didn't answer the question directly.

I think you are correct that Putin's ideal scenario is for the Ukrainians to roll over, the Zelensky government to fall, and a puppet regime is put in place ala Belarus. As brutal as necessary to put down the ensuing insurgency, with Russian support.

Once that's done, who's next?

He ain't stopping until he's restored the Empire....and maybe more.

Yes, he wants to keep pumping, so that's gotta stop. And Russia needs to be totally removed from the international monetary system.

They need to totally crushed economically....which can stop when he withdraws. No puppet regime.

I think that'll require a well funded and supplied insurgency. Might not be quick. And so the pain for Russia won't abate quickly either.

This shooting war Russia has with Ukraine then moves into the high tech cyberwarfare that is the next step in the chess game. So our move is in even harsher sanctions, Putins move is to shut down our power grid or something similar. You don't think Putin has not thought out his next move??? I do, the west has already told him what they will do next. You think Putin won't respond?

[cradleandshoot]

Despite the rah rah -- this has not made NATO stronger or more committed. They are just more afraid.

If you were sitting in a job in a NATO county's foreign ministry, you'd probably be sweating bullets TOO today...

..you saw where Sweden and Finland are stepping up efforts - exploring - the wisdom of entering NATO, yeah?

..

Of course they are
.
Republicans are too busy telling everyone how brilliant Putin is to shut up for five seconds, and consider all the downsides for Putin.

Many of them hate democrats more than they hate Putin…and they can’t help but to show their slip on this point. And I’m getting sick of it.

Putin knows and understands the downsides. He is just doesn't give a chit about them. How this plays out in the long run is what matters. It is the Democrats running the country, their problem to fix. What will the Democrats do when the Chicoms invade Taiwan?? The Chicoms know an opportunity when they see it. You want to bet be a steak dinner the Chicoms don't take advantage of a weak US

What I know is that every Dem president we’ve ever had is weak, and every Republican we’ve ever had is awesome and strong.

And I also know that this mentality has led us to be at nonstop war for 60+ years.

Militarily? I don’t care about Ukraine. I don’t care about Taiwan.

Remember when Bush invaded Iraq the first time to show the world he wasn’t soft? How many more Fing stupid wars do we need to have before we stop acting like men who are overcompensating for small units?

This isn’t our problem. Neither is Taiwan. We don’t have treaties with either.

Anyone who thinks Biden is weak? Grab a gun, and head to Ukraine. No one is stopping you .

Again we agree. Not an isolationist. Just not our fight. We are only partly to blame for this with our whole NATO expansion show. I get it, Putin is a thug, but we cut deals with Saudi Arabia, Turkey et al. Not real democracies. Treat someone like an enemy all the time and pretty soon, you have a real enemy. What happened to Glasnost? Trump isn't blameless either, as he has as much to do with driving Russia towards a closer relationship with China as Obama and Biden.

You are correct... not our fight but the situation is still our problem... one way or another.

[MDlaxfan76]

Putin hopes to annex as much of Ukraine as he can, with limited damage & post-conflict resistance.
He wants the EUros to keep buying his gas & oil, with limited or no disruption.

...and you're NOT OK with that, right?

I'm just telling you what I see, so far. I'm relieved that the initial strikes are not as brutal as they could be, but this thing is just getting started.

I want this to end asap, with minimum loss of life & before it forces our NATO allies to have to make difficult decisions.
Despite the rah rah -- this has not made NATO stronger or more committed. They are just more afraid.

Fear is a powerful motivator and quite rational in this case.

Rather than "stronger" let's just say more unified.

I notice you didn't answer the question directly.

I think you are correct that Putin's ideal scenario is for the Ukrainians to roll over, the Zelensky government to fall, and a puppet regime is put in place ala Belarus. As brutal as necessary to put down the ensuing insurgency, with Russian support.

Once that's done, who's next?

He ain't stopping until he's restored the Empire....and maybe more.

Yes, he wants to keep pumping, so that's gotta stop. And Russia needs to be totally removed from the international monetary system.

They need to totally crushed economically....which can stop when he withdraws. No puppet regime.

I think that'll require a well funded and supplied insurgency. Might not be quick. And so the pain for Russia won't abate quickly either.

This shooting war Russia has with Ukraine then moves into the high tech cyberwarfare that is the next step in the chess game. So our move is in even harsher sanctions, Putins move is to shut down our power grid or something similar. You don't think Putin has not thought out his next move??? I do, the west has already told him what they will do next. You think Putin won't respond?

Sure, but you think we don't have all the offensive cyber capabilities they have? And better defensive?
HINT: ours are way better.

This not going to be pleasant at all for us. But it's gonna be hell on Russia.

[RedFromMI]

And then there is this summary of Senator Tommy Tuberville's recent interview (from Twitter):

.@SenTuberville claims Putin is invading Ukraine because Russia is a communist country that needs more land.

“He can’t feed his people,” said Tuberville. “It’s a communist country, so he can’t feed his people, so they need more farmland.”

NM that Russia is no longer a communist country...

[youthathletics]

Anyone who thinks Biden is weak? Grab a gun, and head to Ukraine. No one is stopping you .

So tell us, why was Biden not able to walk tall and carry a big stick on this one?

... what big stick is that?

...exactly my point.

[MDlaxfan76]

This is small fry attack but a taste:

1 hr 37 min ago
Russian government websites mysteriously go dark as invasion continues
From CNN's Brian Fung and Sean Lyngaas
Multiple Russian government websites appeared to go offline outside of Russia Thursday as the war in Ukraine continued to unfold — though the exact reasons for the outages were not immediately clear.

A website belonging to the Russian military became inaccessible to users outside of Russia early Thursday evening Eastern European Time, as did the domain for Russia's federal government (albeit briefly) and the English-language version of the Kremlin's website.

According to Doug Madory, an analyst at the internet monitoring firm Kentik, the disruptions are part of a broader pattern of distributed denial of service (DDoS) attacks targeting Russia's government.

"It is a simultaneous flood of traffic from sources around the world on a specific port ... to a specific set of IP addresses," Madory told CNN. "That isn't a natural flow of internet traffic."
It is unclear who may be responsible for the flood of bogus internet traffic. Other cybersecurity experts expressed doubts that a major DDoS campaign was underway. At least some of the website outages may be the result of Russia's own moves to preempt potential DDoS attacks, three cybersecurity experts told CNN.

Deactivating the websites is a "defensive measure and a means of isolating a portion of the [Russian] Internet," said CNN military analyst Cedric Leighton.

James Lewis, a senior vice president at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said Russia likely unplugged its own websites "to reduce risk."

"Nobody has taken credit [for the outages], and people aren't shy about doing that," Lewis said.

Brett Callow, a threat analyst at the information security firm Emsisoft, said it is a common practice for a domain owner to disconnect its own website in the midst of a crisis.

"US companies frequently do a similar thing during ransomware incidents, namely, block all connections from outside the US," Callow said.

[seacoaster]

Now we know Putin wasn't bluffing. Biden and his people need to tread very very lightly... do not escalate this mess.

It's going to be hard not to escalate and still be effective. As you know, we are dealing with the invasion of a sovereign nation, under circumstances that are almost entirely cooked up by Putin. So:

Support Ukraine with war materiale, immediately, everything but soldiers in theatre. All systems, weapons, intel, counter-cyber, etc.

Bankrupt Putin's war machine. We have to freeze and seize Russian finances, including in particular those controlled by Putin and the oligarchs who support him;

Remove Russia from, or isolate it from, every international organization and financial institution.

Recall all embassy personnel and ambassadors from Russia. There is no point in talking. The unified message has to cease fire, remove your troops and materiale, or be isolated from the world community.

Remove and counter Russian propaganda. Actually shut down Russian media in the West.

Boycott -- as advertisers and viewers -- American outlets and political actors that support Putin.

Work with other nations, including OPEC countries, to cease purchases of Russian oil and gas. Induce American and Middle Eastern producers to increase production. Do not allow Putin the benefit of rising oil prices that his war ensured.

I am sure there are more. We are not toothless, even without the commitment of human assets.

Oh, and move the UEFA Champions League Final out of St. Petersburg.

And stay off pornhub and redtube which all well covered by Russian influences!

We'll leave that bit of "fighting back" to you.

It’ll be like I’m giving myself over to god!

More TMI man.

[jhu72]

US military estimates it would take 3.5 to 4 million man invasion force to occupy all of Ukraine. Putin is short by about a factor of 20. Given what looks like the heaviest fighting, the east, the moves in the west (Lviv, etc.) are feints most likely. At the end of the day, Ukrainian resistance will determine the outcome. The US forces are going to Poland and Lithuanian to keep the Konigsberg corridor closed.

If there’s an insurgency? Putin is sooooo F’d

Link ? Is that a Ukraine specific analysis, or a generic country that size, with that population.

Link to what? What part of “if” is unclear ?

Why are you unable to consider downsides for Putin?

You can wax poetic on the downsides to everything else… what’s your deal here? Don’t have the time?

A link to the US military estimates to which jhu72 refers. I'd like to learn more about them.

You piped up in the 9 min before I replied to jhu72.

... watch CNN, I took it to mean assuming indigenous resistance.

I may have seen it overnight. Was it a former military talking head or Pentagon reporter ?

Given Ukraine's history & demographics, the potential for a Vichy regime is significant.

.. former military, recent retire as I recall.

Yes. Vichy is a possibility. If Ukraine wants to be free, Ukraine will be free. They will have to fight for it, with NATO sanctions making it more and more expensive for Russia economically and the Ukrainians spilling Russian blood, as much as necessary. IMO Putin himself is in trouble, the longer this goes on.

Expect "terrorist" bombs inside Russia, including Moscow.

About 50% of Russians support the war in Ukraine...that's a whole lot of Russians who do not. Plus Ukrainians...good luck figuring out who is who.

... and that 50-50 split is along generational lines. The young want NOTHING to do with this!

Note I am not sure I buy that even 50% of Russians support this.

[youthathletics]

And then there is this summary of Senator Tommy Tuberville's recent interview (from Twitter):

.@SenTuberville claims Putin is invading Ukraine because Russia is a communist country that needs more land.

“He can’t feed his people,” said Tuberville. “It’s a communist country, so he can’t feed his people, so they need more farmland.”

NM that Russia is no longer a communist country...

So it says on paper....but really, what is it...really?

[seacoaster]

And then there is this summary of Senator Tommy Tuberville's recent interview (from Twitter):

.@SenTuberville claims Putin is invading Ukraine because Russia is a communist country that needs more land.

“He can’t feed his people,” said Tuberville. “It’s a communist country, so he can’t feed his people, so they need more farmland.”

NM that Russia is no longer a communist country...

Dumb as a rock.

[jhu72]

From Al Franken, about 4 hours ago:

W looked into Putin’s eyes & saw his soul. Trump looked & saw Trump Tower Moscow. Biden looked & saw an evil f*ck.

Yes!

I would only modify it a little: Trump looked & saw what he wanted to be when he grew up.