All Things Russia & Ukraine

[Farfromgeneva]

Now we know Putin wasn't bluffing. Biden and his people need to tread very very lightly... do not escalate this mess.

It's going to be hard not to escalate and still be effective. As you know, we are dealing with the invasion of a sovereign nation, under circumstances that are almost entirely cooked up by Putin. So:

Support Ukraine with war materiale, immediately, everything but soldiers in theatre. All systems, weapons, intel, counter-cyber, etc.

Bankrupt Putin's war machine. We have to freeze and seize Russian finances, including in particular those controlled by Putin and the oligarchs who support him;

Remove Russia from, or isolate it from, every international organization and financial institution.

Recall all embassy personnel and ambassadors from Russia. There is no point in talking. The unified message has to cease fire, remove your troops and materiale, or be isolated from the world community.

Remove and counter Russian propaganda. Actually shut down Russian media in the West.

Boycott -- as advertisers and viewers -- American outlets and political actors that support Putin.

Work with other nations, including OPEC countries, to cease purchases of Russian oil and gas. Induce American and Middle Eastern producers to increase production. Do not allow Putin the benefit of rising oil prices that his war ensured.

I am sure there are more. We are not toothless, even without the commitment of human assets.

Oh, and move the UEFA Champions League Final out of St. Petersburg.

And stay off pornhub and redtube which all well covered by Russian influences!

We'll leave that bit of "fighting back" to you.

It’ll be like I’m giving myself over to god!

[old salt]

Putin hopes to annex as much of Ukraine as he can, with limited damage & post-conflict resistance.
He wants the EUros to keep buying his gas & oil, with limited or no disruption.

He can’t do that, imho.

So long as the specter of Putin grabbing more of Ukraine looms? Both the Russian and Ukrainian economies will be in a holding pattern. Putin can’t “get a little bit pregnant” here without severe damage.

I'm talking about physical damage to the country & alienation of the public, many of whom will accept a return to rule from Moscow rather than to join the resistance.

[dislaxxic]

Despite the rah rah -- this has not made NATO stronger or more committed. They are just more afraid.

If you were sitting in a job in a NATO county's foreign ministry, you'd probably be sweating bullets TOO today...

..you saw where Sweden and Finland are stepping up efforts - exploring - the wisdom of entering NATO, yeah?

..

[jhu72]

US military estimates it would take 3.5 to 4 million man invasion force to occupy all of Ukraine. Putin is short by about a factor of 20. Given what looks like the heaviest fighting, the east, the moves in the west (Lviv, etc.) are feints most likely. At the end of the day, Ukrainian resistance will determine the outcome. The US forces are going to Poland and Lithuanian to keep the Konigsberg corridor closed.

If there’s an insurgency? Putin is sooooo F’d

Yes, if the Ukrainian people refuse to be occupied, Putin is fu*ked, big time! If the Russian people stand up, Putin is fu*ked, big time! Something like 2000 Russian protesters arrested in the first 24 hours.

[old salt]

US military estimates it would take 3.5 to 4 million man invasion force to occupy all of Ukraine. Putin is short by about a factor of 20. Given what looks like the heaviest fighting, the east, the moves in the west (Lviv, etc.) are feints most likely. At the end of the day, Ukrainian resistance will determine the outcome. The US forces are going to Poland and Lithuanian to keep the Konigsberg corridor closed.

If there’s an insurgency? Putin is sooooo F’d

Link ? Is that a Ukraine specific analysis, or a generic country that size, with that population.

Does it factor in the number of ethnic Russian population, Russian speakers, & Russian separatists ?

There are a lot of former officials from previous Russian supporting admins, waiting in the wings.

[a fan]

Despite the rah rah -- this has not made NATO stronger or more committed. They are just more afraid.

If you were sitting in a job in a NATO county's foreign ministry, you'd probably be sweating bullets TOO today...

..you saw where Sweden and Finland are stepping up efforts - exploring - the wisdom of entering NATO, yeah?

..

Of course they are
.
Republicans are too busy telling everyone how brilliant Putin is to shut up for five seconds, and consider all the downsides for Putin.

Many of them hate democrats more than they hate Putin…and they can’t help but to show their slip on this point. And I’m getting sick of it.

[a fan]

US military estimates it would take 3.5 to 4 million man invasion force to occupy all of Ukraine. Putin is short by about a factor of 20. Given what looks like the heaviest fighting, the east, the moves in the west (Lviv, etc.) are feints most likely. At the end of the day, Ukrainian resistance will determine the outcome. The US forces are going to Poland and Lithuanian to keep the Konigsberg corridor closed.

If there’s an insurgency? Putin is sooooo F’d

Link ? Is that a Ukraine specific analysis, or a generic country that size, with that population.

Link to what? What part of “if” is unclear ?

Why are you unable to consider downsides for Putin?

You can wax poetic on the downsides to everything else… what’s your deal here? Don’t have the time?

[youthathletics]

Trump was so soft that Putin only attacked anyone when Biden or Obama was running things.

Smart people notice actions and results. (And also notice the leader of the free world has advanced dementia).

Not so smart people spin to hide embarrassment.

... Trump was giving Putin everything he wanted, including weakening Ukraine. Child.

Putin only attacks when Biden or Obama are running things. Trump knew how to handle people and look out for US interests.

Obama said Russia was 1980s foreign policy. Biden was against George HW desert storm success and for GW bushes WMD failure.

Those men are stupid and they will never forgive Trump for showing that to the people.

2+2 = https://www.politico.com/story/2019/08/ ... ia-1689531

[old salt]

Despite the rah rah -- this has not made NATO stronger or more committed. They are just more afraid.

If you were sitting in a job in a NATO county's foreign ministry, you'd probably be sweating bullets TOO today...

..you saw where Sweden and Finland are stepping up efforts - exploring - the wisdom of entering NATO, yeah?

..

Of course they are
.
Republicans are too busy telling everyone how brilliant Putin is to shut up for five seconds, and consider all the downsides for Putin.

Many of them hate democrats more than they hat Putin…and they can’t help but to show their slip on this point. And I’m getting sick of it.

...& you've been telling us for years that Putin's too weak to do what he's just done.
You should be getting sick of being wrong.

[old salt]

US military estimates it would take 3.5 to 4 million man invasion force to occupy all of Ukraine. Putin is short by about a factor of 20. Given what looks like the heaviest fighting, the east, the moves in the west (Lviv, etc.) are feints most likely. At the end of the day, Ukrainian resistance will determine the outcome. The US forces are going to Poland and Lithuanian to keep the Konigsberg corridor closed.

If there’s an insurgency? Putin is sooooo F’d

Link ? Is that a Ukraine specific analysis, or a generic country that size, with that population.

Link to what? What part of “if” is unclear ?

Why are you unable to consider downsides for Putin?

You can wax poetic on the downsides to everything else… what’s your deal here? Don’t have the time?

A link to the US military estimates to which jhu72 refers. I'd like to learn more about them.

You piped up in the 9 min before I replied to jhu72.

[jhu72]

Despite the rah rah -- this has not made NATO stronger or more committed. They are just more afraid.

If you were sitting in a job in a NATO county's foreign ministry, you'd probably be sweating bullets TOO today...

..you saw where Sweden and Finland are stepping up efforts - exploring - the wisdom of entering NATO, yeah?

..

Of course they are
.
Republicans are too busy telling everyone how brilliant Putin is to shut up for five seconds, and consider all the downsides for Putin.

Many of them hate democrats more than they hat Putin…and they can’t help but to show their slip on this point. And I’m getting sick of it.

Yes, lots of "slips showing".

[old salt]

Despite the rah rah -- this has not made NATO stronger or more committed. They are just more afraid.

If you were sitting in a job in a NATO county's foreign ministry, you'd probably be sweating bullets TOO today...

..you saw where Sweden and Finland are stepping up efforts - exploring - the wisdom of entering NATO, yeah?

..

Of course they are
.
Republicans are too busy telling everyone how brilliant Putin is to shut up for five seconds, and consider all the downsides for Putin.

Many of them hate democrats more than they hat Putin…and they can’t help but to show their slip on this point. And I’m getting sick of it.

Yes, lots of "slips showing".

Does that mean you don't have a source for your "US military estimates..." ?

[jhu72]

US military estimates it would take 3.5 to 4 million man invasion force to occupy all of Ukraine. Putin is short by about a factor of 20. Given what looks like the heaviest fighting, the east, the moves in the west (Lviv, etc.) are feints most likely. At the end of the day, Ukrainian resistance will determine the outcome. The US forces are going to Poland and Lithuanian to keep the Konigsberg corridor closed.

If there’s an insurgency? Putin is sooooo F’d

Link ? Is that a Ukraine specific analysis, or a generic country that size, with that population.

Link to what? What part of “if” is unclear ?

Why are you unable to consider downsides for Putin?

You can wax poetic on the downsides to everything else… what’s your deal here? Don’t have the time?

A link to the US military estimates to which jhu72 refers. I'd like to learn more about them.

You piped up in the 9 min before I replied to jhu72.

... watch CNN, I took it to mean assuming indigenous resistance.

[cradleandshoot]

Despite the rah rah -- this has not made NATO stronger or more committed. They are just more afraid.

If you were sitting in a job in a NATO county's foreign ministry, you'd probably be sweating bullets TOO today...

..you saw where Sweden and Finland are stepping up efforts - exploring - the wisdom of entering NATO, yeah?

..

Of course they are
.
Republicans are too busy telling everyone how brilliant Putin is to shut up for five seconds, and consider all the downsides for Putin.

Many of them hate democrats more than they hate Putin…and they can’t help but to show their slip on this point. And I’m getting sick of it.

Putin knows and understands the downsides. He is just doesn't give a chit about them. How this plays out in the long run is what matters. It is the Democrats running the country, their problem to fix. What will the Democrats do when the Chicoms invade Taiwan?? The Chicoms know an opportunity when they see it. You want to bet be a steak dinner the Chicoms don't take advantage of a weak US POTUS?? Taiwan is going down, the time is right, there will never be a better chance for the Chicoms. BTW, I like my steak rare.

[Typical Lax Dad]

Despite the rah rah -- this has not made NATO stronger or more committed. They are just more afraid.

If you were sitting in a job in a NATO county's foreign ministry, you'd probably be sweating bullets TOO today...

..you saw where Sweden and Finland are stepping up efforts - exploring - the wisdom of entering NATO, yeah?

..

Of course they are
.
Republicans are too busy telling everyone how brilliant Putin is to shut up for five seconds, and consider all the downsides for Putin.

Many of them hate democrats more than they hate Putin…and they can’t help but to show their slip on this point. And I’m getting sick of it.

Putin knows and understands the downsides. He is just doesn't give a chit about them. How this plays out in the long run is what matters. It is the Democrats running the country, their problem to fix. What will the Democrats do when the Chicoms invade Taiwan?? The Chicoms know an opportunity when they see it. You want to bet be a steak dinner the Chicoms don't take advantage of a weak US POTUS?? Taiwan is going down, the time is right, there will never be a better chance for the Chicoms. BTW, I like my steak rare.

Why are you worried about it? You can’t do anything.

[old salt]

US military estimates it would take 3.5 to 4 million man invasion force to occupy all of Ukraine. Putin is short by about a factor of 20. Given what looks like the heaviest fighting, the east, the moves in the west (Lviv, etc.) are feints most likely. At the end of the day, Ukrainian resistance will determine the outcome. The US forces are going to Poland and Lithuanian to keep the Konigsberg corridor closed.

If there’s an insurgency? Putin is sooooo F’d

Link ? Is that a Ukraine specific analysis, or a generic country that size, with that population.

Link to what? What part of “if” is unclear ?

Why are you unable to consider downsides for Putin?

You can wax poetic on the downsides to everything else… what’s your deal here? Don’t have the time?

A link to the US military estimates to which jhu72 refers. I'd like to learn more about them.

You piped up in the 9 min before I replied to jhu72.

... watch CNN, I took it to mean assuming indigenous resistance.

I may have seen it overnight. Was it a former military talking head or Pentagon reporter ?

Given Ukraine's history & demographics, the potential for a Vichy regime is significant.

[a fan]

Despite the rah rah -- this has not made NATO stronger or more committed. They are just more afraid.

If you were sitting in a job in a NATO county's foreign ministry, you'd probably be sweating bullets TOO today...

..you saw where Sweden and Finland are stepping up efforts - exploring - the wisdom of entering NATO, yeah?

..

Of course they are
.
Republicans are too busy telling everyone how brilliant Putin is to shut up for five seconds, and consider all the downsides for Putin.

Many of them hate democrats more than they hat Putin…and they can’t help but to show their slip on this point. And I’m getting sick of it.

...& you've been telling us for years that Putin's too weak to do what he's just done.
You should be getting sick of being wrong.

Says the guy who thinks Ukraine is part of NATO.

Do I need to draw the NATO map for you and the rest of the republicans who are upset that we haven’t invaded a helpless country in the last few years?

We aren’t responsible for Putins actions, OS.

You think we are. Its absurd.

[cradleandshoot]

Despite the rah rah -- this has not made NATO stronger or more committed. They are just more afraid.

If you were sitting in a job in a NATO county's foreign ministry, you'd probably be sweating bullets TOO today...

..you saw where Sweden and Finland are stepping up efforts - exploring - the wisdom of entering NATO, yeah?

..

Of course they are
.
Republicans are too busy telling everyone how brilliant Putin is to shut up for five seconds, and consider all the downsides for Putin.

Many of them hate democrats more than they hate Putin…and they can’t help but to show their slip on this point. And I’m getting sick of it.

Putin knows and understands the downsides. He is just doesn't give a chit about them. How this plays out in the long run is what matters. It is the Democrats running the country, their problem to fix. What will the Democrats do when the Chicoms invade Taiwan?? The Chicoms know an opportunity when they see it. You want to bet be a steak dinner the Chicoms don't take advantage of a weak US POTUS?? Taiwan is going down, the time is right, there will never be a better chance for the Chicoms. BTW, I like my steak rare.

Why are you worried about it? You can’t do anything.

https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=do ... 6PC%3dU531

[jhu72]

Now we know Putin wasn't bluffing. Biden and his people need to tread very very lightly... do not escalate this mess.

It's going to be hard not to escalate and still be effective. As you know, we are dealing with the invasion of a sovereign nation, under circumstances that are almost entirely cooked up by Putin. So:

Support Ukraine with war materiale, immediately, everything but soldiers in theatre. All systems, weapons, intel, counter-cyber, etc.

Bankrupt Putin's war machine. We have to freeze and seize Russian finances, including in particular those controlled by Putin and the oligarchs who support him;

Remove Russia from, or isolate it from, every international organization and financial institution.

Recall all embassy personnel and ambassadors from Russia. There is no point in talking. The unified message has to cease fire, remove your troops and materiale, or be isolated from the world community.

Remove and counter Russian propaganda. Actually shut down Russian media in the West.

Boycott -- as advertisers and viewers -- American outlets and political actors that support Putin.

Work with other nations, including OPEC countries, to cease purchases of Russian oil and gas. Induce American and Middle Eastern producers to increase production. Do not allow Putin the benefit of rising oil prices that his war ensured.

I am sure there are more. We are not toothless, even without the commitment of human assets.

Oh, and move the UEFA Champions League Final out of St. Petersburg.

And stay off pornhub and redtube which all well covered by Russian influences!

Russia's second biggest industry.

[a fan]

Despite the rah rah -- this has not made NATO stronger or more committed. They are just more afraid.

If you were sitting in a job in a NATO county's foreign ministry, you'd probably be sweating bullets TOO today...

..you saw where Sweden and Finland are stepping up efforts - exploring - the wisdom of entering NATO, yeah?

..

Of course they are
.
Republicans are too busy telling everyone how brilliant Putin is to shut up for five seconds, and consider all the downsides for Putin.

Many of them hate democrats more than they hate Putin…and they can’t help but to show their slip on this point. And I’m getting sick of it.

Putin knows and understands the downsides. He is just doesn't give a chit about them. How this plays out in the long run is what matters. It is the Democrats running the country, their problem to fix. What will the Democrats do when the Chicoms invade Taiwan?? The Chicoms know an opportunity when they see it. You want to bet be a steak dinner the Chicoms don't take advantage of a weak US

What I know is that every Dem president we’ve ever had is weak, and every Republican we’ve ever had is awesome and strong.

And I also know that this mentality has led us to be at nonstop war for 60+ years.

Militarily? I don’t care about Ukraine. I don’t care about Taiwan.

Remember when Bush invaded Iraq the first time to show the world he wasn’t soft? How many more Fing stupid wars do we need to have before we stop acting like men who are overcompensating for small units?

This isn’t our problem. Neither is Taiwan. We don’t have treaties with either.

Anyone who thinks Biden is weak? Grab a gun, and head to Ukraine. No one is stopping you .