THE 2019 Hopkins Lacrosse Fallout Shelter (44, we want more!)

[Typical Lax Dad]

- DeSimone had 3 assists—not going to complain about that—but if there was any doubt still that his confidence is entirely zapped, one need only watch his wide open dunk on the crease in which he sent it sailing over the goal. At this point there's nothing to be done except hope he figures it out

Disagree. He has been a complete letdown so far and he has had plenty of chances to get going and put the ball in the back of the net. It is time sit him down, let him work out the kinks in practice. Hop needs guys like Zinn to get more pt.

This team with the munchkin midfield is good enough to get by the cupcakes. Virginia will make short work of this present construct of the midfield in my opinion. They are bigger, faster and more skilled.

Was awesome to have Boyle and Zim call the game. No haircut talk, no local MIAA talk, no endless naval gazing of top players on other teams not in the game, no mention that Kyles dad is Scott Marr just a knowledgeable crew that called what was in front of them. Well done!

The announcers were a breath of fresh air. Watched some of the Yale vs Cornell game and had to turn it off. Act is so bad.

[DocBarrister]

Don’t think DeSimone’s 3 assists are anything to sneeze at. Means he made good decisions and moved the ball to where it needed to be. Just hope he is putting in extra work on his shooting.

NINE caused turnovers by Hopkins were crucial for the win. DE was winning a lot of 50-50 gbs and causing turnovers on faceoffs, so the Blue Jays needed those CTs to maintain a possession advantage.

Need to see more of Zinn at offensive midfield. It’s fine to have him play on the wings during faceoffs, but why waste that size and speed on the bench? He won’t really improve without the reps.

DocBarrister

[Farfromgeneva]

.............AND none of these schools has the historical significance of lacrosse to the school that Hopkins has.........

This is the point. Lax has a legacy, and Hopkins is the only elite college that has that be-a-part-of-a-legacy image. Hop can only hold this mantle for a few more years, though, and then they'll be regarded as a D3 school like Amherst or Wesleyan or Williams that aspires to play D1 lacrosse (like......Hobart)

As a fan of the game, I want Hop to be a final 4 team every year. I really do. However, the game is growing, and when a coach needs a foundation of dumb jocks who need a full ride to attend to compete for the crown, Hop is gonna be ejected from the ranks of the elite along with the Ivies etc.

Thankfully, that point is a decade of more away. We'll need a lucrative Pro league to see that happen. Right now, Hop is suffering from the early recruiting problem, and they have a team that a half dozen years ago would have owned the HS ranks, but now that these kids are wrestling with the challenges of college, not so much.

I’m not comparing programs, or choice in 1981 made it impossible to be on the same level within DI but this reads like hibart “aspired” to play dI which if intentional is pretty obtuse.

[jhu06]

with todays action our current wins based on laxbytes rpi before action this morning are 32,39,40 and 43. That won't cut it. We've got 5 osu, 11 virginia, 24 rutgers at home and 31 michigan 8/10 maryland/psu on the road. I think we need to sweep rutgers/michigan and get at least 2/4 if not 3/4 out of uva/osu/psu/maryland to make the ncaa tournament as an at large and that starts with fixing the 6v6 offense and manup. Every week we seem to have a game plan that gets us a small early lead, then the opposing coach makes a defensive adjustment or two and it's smoked bbq blue jay.

[Drcthru]

with todays action our current wins based on laxbytes rpi before action this morning are 32,39,40 and 43. That won't cut it. We've got 5 osu, 11 virginia, 24 rutgers at home and 31 michigan 8/10 maryland/psu on the road. I think we need to sweep rutgers/michigan and get at least 2/4 if not 3/4 out of uva/osu/psu/maryland to make the ncaa tournament as an at large and that starts with fixing the 6v6 offense and manup. Every week we seem to have a game plan that gets us a small early lead, then the opposing coach makes a defensive adjustment or two and it's smoked bbq blue jay.

UVA is huge. A loss may end our season. A win plus 3/2 in the B1G makes us bubble in. Big ifs. I can only hope/pray.

[Hoponboard]

It bodes well that Marr found his shooting stroke in the 4th qtr. Kyle is a money player and the Jays’ best zone buster.

The offensive strategy in the 3rd qtr. was abysmal. Going one on one and taking early shots, or forcing a pass to a covered teammate in the middle smacked of desperation—-and Hopkins was leading.

Jays were fortunate that Delaware lost their poise in the last five minutes of the game.

I thought Williams had his best game of the season.

Strength at the X by Prouty and Narewski needs to be matched by strength on the wings. Want to see more of Zinn on the wings, especially against Virginia.

[viper]

It bodes well that Marr found his shooting stroke in the 4th qtr. Kyle is a money player and the Jays’ best zone buster.

Unfortunately, right now I believe he is the Jay's ONLY zone buster. If he can't get open, there appear to be few other options.

[51percentcorn]

The day may have been saved by Concannon pickpocketing the DE middie after the save by DeLuca on Williams. They run major clock and you are in deep trouble. Marr woke up just at the right time. He had two much easier looks that should have been goals but those last two he pinged each upper corner like he knew what he was doing. The let's see how many attack players can be on the field at the same time is looking better against man to man - in part because Keogh and Baskin are gaining some confidence and doing good things against shorties. The second half of course was abysmal against the zone. They need to find some outside shooting. I would echo the sentiments that trotting Lily and Mabbett out there for one or two runs might be better served by playing Zinn as much as possible. The outlet pass from Darby was to Baskin (I think) when Jones decided to be stupid - high probability of a good opportunity to make it 7-3 instead it's 6=4. On the one Delaware goal - I would have thought it should have been waived off - he clearly landed towards the goal and hit Darby - the Hopkins player pushed him - so Hopkins should have been a man down. I think maybe the most depressing thing was some of the defensive panic - Petro went nuts on Rapine after the Hens' third goal where Jack slid out from the middle to a guy moving away from the goal and who was covered and no threat which left McManus I think in no man's land and when he moved left to the middle a skip pass found the DE middie all alone. On the reply I watched, Ryan Boyle was 1000% spot on when he spotted the defensive panic when Jones got trapped on Kitchen behind the goal. It's like the defense blew a fuse "Danger Will Robinson, Danger". Maintain some integrity fellas. Oh wait, it's 6'4" 215 and 20 goals against 5'7" 170 - maybe it was time to panic.

Hard to be optimistic about next week. UVA is LOADED on offense and I gather after falling behind 10-5 to Notre Dame they reeled off 7-8 straight. The guy who has to guard Aitken needs a blindfold and a cigarette. Foley will likely do OK on Kraus - you can't let Laviano kill you off ball. Darby is going to have to corral some outside shots because they will be coming and they will be humming.

[tech37]

Hard to be optimistic about next week. UVA is LOADED on offense and I gather after falling behind 10-5 to Notre Dame they reeled off 7-8 straight. The guy who has to guard Aitken needs a blindfold and a cigarette. Foley will likely do OK on Kraus - you can't let Laviano kill you off ball. Darby is going to have to corral some outside shots because they will be coming and they will be humming.

Don't forget Moore and Conrad. You got the "loaded" part right

[HopFan16]

Williams did not exactly play "midfield" yesterday but I'm sure you all noticed he spent a good amount of the first half initiating from the top of the formation. His second goal—easily his best goal of the season—was a dodge from up top in which he beat two defenders for an easy righty finish. That seemed to get him going a little bit. Not sure why they went away from that strategy in the second half (even against man). His no-look pass across the crease to a cutting Stagnitta was a thing of beauty. And before jhu06 jumps all over the kid for 2 more turnovers—one of those was when he rolled the ball into the corner at the very end of the game as the clock ticked down, Delaware guy picked it up before the clock officially expired, so that counts as a turnover. Don't remember what the other one was.

It was a game to forget for Joey, despite the 2 goals. However I agree about the temporary benching—other players have made bigger errors and have had far worse games without being put in timeout. Every kid is different and maybe the staff thinks that putting the kid on the bench for a bit will work with him specifically, but it was definitely an eyebrow-raiser. Not really a fan of putting your best playmaker on the bench in a tight game. I'd have thought that a stern talking-to—hey, no more bad shots or careless passes—might have done the trick. But all's well that end's well I suppose.

- DeSimone had 3 assists—not going to complain about that—but if there was any doubt still that his confidence is entirely zapped, one need only watch his wide open dunk on the crease in which he sent it sailing over the goal. At this point there's nothing to be done except hope he figures it out

Disagree. He has been a complete letdown so far and he has had plenty of chances to get going and put the ball in the back of the net. It is time sit him down, let him work out the kinks in practice. Hop needs guys like Zinn to get more pt.

I want Zinn to get more runs on offense as much as anyone here, though I don't think it should come at the expense of DeSimone for two reasons. The first, 51 just said it—I'd rather he take that 3rd spot on the second line that's currently occupied by a rotating cast of guys who haven't done much. They haven't done anything especially POORLY either, but they aren't impacting the game. When Zinn is in you can feel his presence on the field. Early on in the game he dodged north-south and absolutely blew by his defender. The guy was beat the second Zinn could go at him with a running start. Then he passed to an open shooter on the righty wing—forget who it was, Baskin, Keogh, or DeSimone probably—and that should have been canned. The other reason is, I think if you bench DeSimone now you run the risk of permanently altering the trajectory of his career. You might never see the same player again. We know he is capable of more than he's doing right now—in my view you let him work it out on the field before it's too late. And for all his shooting struggles he still does have 8 points, and as Doc said, he's moving the ball well and getting it to open guys even if he himself as struggled mightily to put it in the back of the net so far. I'll take the assists over what those other middies on the second line are offering, which is not a whole lot of anything.

Re: Virginia, the last two games have been miracle comebacks by the Jays—I don't love the chances of that happening for a third time in a row. On Aitken they just kind of hope for the best—put Kuhn on him or bump up Colwell and slide early to those alley dodges. He can pass but I'd much rather him be a distributor than a shooter with his hands free from 8 yards. He's the kind of dude who seems tailor made to destroy Hopkins defenses. That said the Jays played Tanner Cook better this year than last so maybe that bodes well for defending Aitken. Probably not but that's the only thing that's going to help me sleep at night this week.

[OCanada]

MDLax

It’s the perception it requires greater effort than it does at other indtitutions. At least that is what several first teamers offered as to why they chose an Ivy or ACC school. For them it was not a matter of staying in it was a matter of having to work harder on top of playing

[MDlaxfan76]

MDLax

It’s the perception it requires greater effort than it does at other indtitutions. At least that is what several first teamers offered as to why they chose an Ivy or ACC school. For them it was not a matter of staying in it was a matter of having to work harder on top of playing

Interesting. It's not at all an accurate perception re the Ivies.

But it is, as to ACC schools.

On the Epstein benching, I don't think a "stern talking to" nor benching is the way to handle most highly competitive players. Any doubt as to whether the player himself doesn't know when he's made a bad play? Series of bad plays? Better to pull him over, calm him down, suggest some positive ways to re-approach the contest, then get him back into the action. Yelling at or punishing a top player rarely motivates their top performance.

Now if you actually have an attitude problem with a player, he shouldn't be on the field in the first place. I doubt that's the case in this instance.

[BlueJaySince1947]

The wacky Sunpaper gave the game TWO sentences of coverage this morning !

[WOMBAT, Mod Emeritus]

The wacky Sunpaper gave the game TWO sentences of coverage this morning !

The Sun sleeps with the fishes.

[51percentcorn]

Don't forget Moore and Conrad. You got the "loaded" part right

Not forgetting - Moore has certainly made the leap to elite player - unlike another sophomore he was oft compared to in high school (understood Moore has played attack this year). And even though he doesn't play for my favorite team - great to see Ryan Conrad back on the field seemingly like his old self. Looking at the team stats - which are interesting since UVA and Hopkins have already had 3 common opponents and UVA's schedule has been maybe a a tad tougher than Hopkins there are two or three glaring issues for Hopkins to address:
#1 (and you could probably label this as issues 1,2 and 3). Ground balls - How in the world does a team win 6% fewer face-offs and average more than 10 ground balls per game better than Hopkins? (284 to 209) If UVA leaves Homewood field with 10 or more ground balls than Hopkins - I'll have been long gone cause that party will have been over. Our attack has 33 ground balls UVA's 54. Our face-off men have 53 ground balls - UVA's 36 so that means in the same number of games against a very comparable schedule the non F/O Hoovillians have garnered 92 more ground balls - average of 12 per game. Uh oh
#2. Turnovers - this high flying risk taking offense of UVA's has surely resulted in more turnovers correct? No - 110 turnovers for UVA 113 for Hopkins even more worrisome - UVA's opponents have committed 137 turnovers - pretty much 20 a game - Hopkins opponents have committed 106 - 15 a game.
#3. Clearing - each teams' success is a little over 80 with Hopkins' % slightly higher 85-81 - the disparity of concern is opponents clearing % - 83% for Hopkins opponents - 72% for UVA's.

Goals/assists/shots - all in a slight advantage to UVA - pretty much averaging 1 goal more a game
Goaltending in terms of Save % is dead even

There are two stat lines in slight favor to Hopkins
F/O % 54-48
Special Teams - UVA is a surprising 28% on EMO while allowing a 32% success rate on MD
Hopkins is 37% EMO and 26% MD

Virtually every lacrosse game comes down to possessions - absent Birkenshaw/Rhode or Darby coming up with 24 saves - this game will come down to whether Hopkins wins more face-offs and takes care of the ball. If UVA gets 12-15 more cracks at the apple - I can't see a Blue Jay victory in almost any form. If you want to know what helped the comebacks of the past 2 years? 4 more GBs in 2017 than UVA - flat in 2018. 3 fewer turnovers in 2017 - 6 fewer in 2018.

Has to happen again - cannot slide off Laviano 22 goals - 2 assists

[WOMBAT, Mod Emeritus]

Don't forget Moore and Conrad. You got the "loaded" part right

Not forgetting - Moore has certainly made the leap to elite player - unlike another sophomore he was oft compared to in high school (understood Moore has played attack this year). And even though he doesn't play for my favorite team - great to see Ryan Conrad back on the field seemingly like his old self. Looking at the team stats - which are interesting since UVA and Hopkins have already had 3 common opponents and UVA's schedule has been maybe a a tad tougher than Hopkins there are two or three glaring issues for Hopkins to address:
#1 (and you could probably label this as issues 1,2 and 3). Ground balls - How in the world does a team win 6% fewer face-offs and average more than 10 ground balls per game better than Hopkins? (284 to 209) If UVA leaves Homewood field with 10 or more ground balls than Hopkins - I'll have been long gone cause that party will have been over. Our attack has 33 ground balls UVA's 54. Our face-off men have 53 ground balls - UVA's 36 so that means in the same number of games against a very comparable schedule the non F/O Hoovillians have garnered 92 more ground balls - average of 12 per game. Uh oh
#2. Turnovers - this high flying risk taking offense of UVA's has surely resulted in more turnovers correct? No - 110 turnovers for UVA 113 for Hopkins even more worrisome - UVA's opponents have committed 137 turnovers - pretty much 20 a game - Hopkins opponents have committed 106 - 15 a game.
#3. Clearing - each teams' success is a little over 80 with Hopkins' % slightly higher 85-81 - the disparity of concern is opponents clearing % - 83% for Hopkins opponents - 72% for UVA's.

Goals/assists/shots - all in a slight advantage to UVA - pretty much averaging 1 goal more a game
Goaltending in terms of Save % is dead even

There are two stat lines in slight favor to Hopkins
F/O % 54-48
Special Teams - UVA is a surprising 28% on EMO while allowing a 32% success rate on MD
Hopkins is 37% EMO and 26% MD

Virtually every lacrosse game comes down to possessions - absent Birkenshaw/Rhode or Darby coming up with 24 saves - this game will come down to whether Hopkins wins more face-offs and takes care of the ball. If UVA gets 12-15 more cracks at the apple - I can't see a Blue Jay victory in almost any form. If you want to know what helped the comebacks of the past 2 years? 4 more GBs in 2017 than UVA - flat in 2018. 3 fewer turnovers in 2017 - 6 fewer in 2018.

Has to happen again - cannot slide off Laviano 22 goals - 2 assists

I like that phrase: “disparity of concern”.

I’m stealing that.

[Big Dog]

It's not at all an accurate perception re the Ivies.

IMO, there is no question that overall academics are tougher at Hopkins than say, Yale or Brown or UVa/UNC. Brown and Yale have two of the highest mean GPA's in 3,000 undergrad colleges; both run on the 'Gentleman's B-' for a low grade. (Brown in particular, awards more A's than B's; C-efforts students will just take a class Pass/Fail..) Contrast that with the STEM gunners at The Hop.

In this case, perception is reality.

[Drcthru]

MDLax

It’s the perception it requires greater effort than it does at other indtitutions. At least that is what several first teamers offered as to why they chose an Ivy or ACC school. For them it was not a matter of staying in it was a matter of having to work harder on top of playing

Interesting. It's not at all an accurate perception re the Ivies.

But it is, as to ACC schools.

On the Epstein benching, I don't think a "stern talking to" nor benching is the way to handle most highly competitive players. Any doubt as to whether the player himself doesn't know when he's made a bad play? Series of bad plays? Better to pull him over, calm him down, suggest some positive ways to re-approach the contest, then get him back into the action. Yelling at or punishing a top player rarely motivates their top performance.

Now if you actually have an attitude problem with a player, he shouldn't be on the field in the first place. I doubt that's the case in this instance.

Maybe it is an accurate perception of the Ivies. https://ripplematch.com/journal/article ... -4f4b544d/

[MDlaxfan76]

MDLax

It’s the perception it requires greater effort than it does at other indtitutions. At least that is what several first teamers offered as to why they chose an Ivy or ACC school. For them it was not a matter of staying in it was a matter of having to work harder on top of playing

Interesting. It's not at all an accurate perception re the Ivies.

But it is, as to ACC schools.

On the Epstein benching, I don't think a "stern talking to" nor benching is the way to handle most highly competitive players. Any doubt as to whether the player himself doesn't know when he's made a bad play? Series of bad plays? Better to pull him over, calm him down, suggest some positive ways to re-approach the contest, then get him back into the action. Yelling at or punishing a top player rarely motivates their top performance.

Now if you actually have an attitude problem with a player, he shouldn't be on the field in the first place. I doubt that's the case in this instance.

Maybe it is an accurate perception of the Ivies. https://ripplematch.com/journal/article ... -4f4b544d/

Ok, good example perhaps of not going to stats class. Or maybe not Applied Stats.

GPA as a measure of how easy it is to 'survive' at a particular college, for a given athlete.
hmmm, what could get missed?

How about taking into account the relative capabilities of one's fellow students in the classes one takes?
Would that matter? yup...

What would some proxies be?
Perhaps SAT/AP levels? # of applicants and acceptance rates?

I think you'd see a pretty sizable difference in the SAT/AP levels in most of those schools at the top of that list and Hopkins, though perhaps less so in some of STEM, though that's not what we see in most of the lax players at any of these schools.

But a lot higher levels for the non-STEM admits. And, it can't really be underestimated how the raw testing scores don't tell the whole story. The Ivies I'm most familiar with, HYP and D, reject a whole class of applicants with scores as high or higher than those they admit. An awful lot of perfect SAT's rejected.

What they're looking for is demonstration of special passions above and beyond; in all sorts of ways.

When my son entered Economics at one of those Ivies, he assumed he was pretty darn well prepared. Strong, motivated student, excellent SAT and AP scores, etc. Academic awards at arguably the toughest prep school in Baltimore. But Econ at that Ivy was full of kids with perfect SAT's, multiple math camp summers, multiple years of higher level calc, and having already taken Econ at their prep schools. Way ahead out of the chute, especially as that Econ Dept is so heavy on math. So, they throw an immense workload at them. And most of these students didn't have a 25+ hr a week athletic commitment year round.

I've been in the Econ classes at Hopkins. No comparison. That doesn't mean that Hopkins classes are a breeze, or that the students aren't smart, but the expectations and workload just aren't the same.

Brown is sort of its own thing, with their very different grading system and no requirements. Kids can create their own majors and if you're trying to skate through, it's indeed possible. Most Brown students, however, are super motivated, so be careful not to think they actually have an easy academic path. But, yeah, if you're not a highly motivated student, it may be easier to survive there.

Cornell has some paths for survival given a broader spectrum of overall students, but is notoriously challenging for those who are serious students. I'd think Penn would be pretty similar to HYPD, though the HYP phenomenon is indeed in it's own sector.

[MDlaxfan76]

It's not at all an accurate perception re the Ivies.

IMO, there is no question that overall academics are tougher at Hopkins than say, Yale or Brown or UVa/UNC. Brown and Yale have two of the highest mean GPA's in 3,000 undergrad colleges; both run on the 'Gentleman's B-' for a low grade. (Brown in particular, awards more A's than B's; C-efforts students will just take a class Pass/Fail..) Contrast that with the STEM gunners at The Hop.

In this case, perception is reality.

Are there any "STEM gunners" on the lax team at Hopkins?
one? two?

You really think that even in STEM it's easier to be at Yale? Really??

Yes, re UVA/UNC, given their in-state admissions...even more so for UNC.

But this is a Hopkins thread and I have no desire or intent to be in the slightest bit insulting of Hopkins. I have family members who graduated from undergraduate and/or grad schools, and I employ several grads from various schools. I'm joining an advisory BD at the Whiting School, I've guest lectured in both undergraduate and graduate classes on the Homewood campus and at the Carey School. I've enjoyed my experiences and the young people I've met.

Great school!

We were simply talking about perceptions and reality, for lax players.

I think the more interesting challenge for Hopkins men's lax recruiting has more to do with the female quotient/social scene, along with the attractions of big-time sports. But you play the hand you're dealt.