THE 2019 Hopkins Lacrosse Fallout Shelter (44, we want more!)

[steel_hop]

substitute Tennessee womens basketball for Hopkins lacrosse and you basically have this program since Brody gave Rabil his diploma.
https://sports.yahoo.com/why-one-of-col ... 37562.html

"The Lady Vols (hopkins blue jays) continued their descent from perennial juggernaut, to sporadic title contender, to the fringes of national relevance, staggering to a 19-12 record that leaves them squarely on the bubble just days before this year's women's NCAA tournament bracket is unveiled.

"Aided by the strength of the Tennessee (HOPKINS) brand in women's basketball (LACROSSE), Warlick (PETRO) has recruited well throughout her tenure, luring the nation's top-ranked class in 2017 and backing that up with a pair of top-10 classes in 2018 and 2019.

"If Tennessee (HOPKINS) is calling on the phone, kids are still going to stop and pay attention," said Dan Olson, owner of the Collegiate Girls Basketball Report. "The Tennessee (HOPKINS) name still resonates with kids. They're still pulling some of the top players year after year."

Where Warlick has sometimes struggled is molding elite talent into a cohesive, winning team. This year's Lady Vols (BLUE JAYS) are erratic shooting from the perimeter, sometimes turn the ball over too frequently and rank 252nd in field-goal percentage defense nationally."

If you want to think about the issue in a more practical terms. Think about this. When was the last time Hopkins/SU wasn't on TV? Or how about this Hopkins/UNC was on ESPN+ but ESPN was still showing a lacrosse game. Hopkins is falling down a path that was tread a while ago, it really is going to take a drastic change to get off of it. But, some still want to bury their head and ignore but latching onto lazy B!G tournament titles and we were in the FF 4 years ago (ignores it as the only FF in a decade).

[jhu06]

if they play the 4th quarter against syracuse the way they did the first we're having a different conversation about this season and I really don't believe the program is "doomed" by any stretch. I just read that story and found the parallels interesting.

[51percentcorn]

if they play the 4th quarter against syracuse the way they did the first we're having a different conversation about this season and I really don't believe the program is "doomed" by any stretch.

That statement pre-supposes almost that it was Hopkins' choice to play the way they did in the 4th quarter and Syracuse had nothing to do with it. The reason the 4th quarter happened was simple - Kennedy and Fernandez dominated the face-offs from the wings, Syracuse won every single one on one match-up on defense and Syracuse has outside threats - multiple - Hopkins has one - and he isn't playing like senior captain.

"The Lady Vols (hopkins blue jays) continued their descent from perennial juggernaut, to sporadic title contender, to the fringes of national relevance, staggering to a 19-12 record that leaves them squarely on the bubble just days before this year's women's NCAA tournament bracket is unveiled.

The issue is simple IMO. Hopkins recruiting issues are starting to take over from the benefits. And Hopkins/Petro made a major miscalculation by trying to solve the problem with quantity in conjunction with early recruiting. And if Petro survives this year it is only going to get worse. Estimates are that Hopkins will cost $55,000 for 19/20 tuition alone so somewhere on the order of $75,000-80,000 all in. Pretty easy math - even if Petro thinks you are the second coming and starts you off with 25% scholarship - something he probably can't do since he always has 50 kids on the team (I know this team is under 50 but next year is going to be very interesting) - that means your parents have to find $60,000 per year under the couch cushions. This 18/19/20 kid recruiting class simply cannot be sustained. Hopkins needs to have pretty much the smallest roster size in the country not the largest. The issues created by this machine gun approach to recruiting is what helps create issues like the fact that 5 of our first six mid-fielders are really attackmen and while there are many examples of attack players who have transitioned successfully to mid-field - we can't afford to have 5. DeSimone and Cattoni (an original member of the first 6) - also played attack in high school. I can recall the class that graduated and only scored something like 2 goals for the class by SSDM Burkhart the entire year (Boland of course was a double red-shirt). Remember the magic number of 23 - in a competitive game between two teams you can peg the number of kids that play to be pretty much 23. Against Carolina Hopkins played 21, Princeton 24, Syracuse 25 (with Cattoni hurt they threw Mabbett and Lily out there for a cup of coffee after Zinn got fleeced). That means the extra players are there for practice 3 goalies, 3 face-off men, 9 defensemen (including LSMs), 4 SSDMs, 5 attack, 8 offensive middies - I can't imagine you need more - maybe 1 or 2 more defenders for injuries to practice and I don't see what else. Everybody comes to the year, practices and games knowing they will likely play, practices are better because there are only 35 or so kids vs. 55, and the money gets spread around better to potentially attract more talent and talent doesn't see a logjam problem where they are going to be picking splinters out of the ol toucas so they go elsewhere. Obviously a roster of 32-35ish is exposed on two fronts - if you recruit poorly - you don't have alot of room for error and more likely - injuries can devastate a season. But again - once you get past the first 23 - the other 27 aren't riding over the hill on a white horse to save the day. Look at Duke's roster - a slight anomaly this year with 4 graduate students but otherwise EVERY single class of Duke's is 11 - like clockwork - I still think that is too many - Hopkins should target classes to be no more than 9-10 - never above 10 unless a Tucker Durkin type decides to do a last minute switcheroo.

[runrussellrun]

51%,

Who says lacrosse is NOT a revenue producing sport? Those extra 15 players on the "ro$ter" are revenue. Plain and simple. And not at just at Hopkins. (when does Bloombergs interest start paying for the poor kids to attend??)

Also, could someone contact the Blue Jays webmaster. Pretty sure Quinn's name isn't spelled with ONE n. Indicative of the program?

[51percentcorn]

Hopkins can find a boatload of families willing to pay full freight (and more apparently - I hear Olivia Jade wants to become a Blue Jay). The web says Hopkins acceptance rate was 14.5% a couple years ago. I am sure amongst the 85-88% that don't get in Hopkins can find 15 acceptable students to boost Daniel's stats and cost no athletic money.

[HopFan16]

According to this, Duke, Bucknell, Cornell, Colgate, and Brown all have higher tuitions than Hopkins (as of last year—it pegs Hop at 52.1k, Duke at 53.7k).

https://www.townandcountrymag.com/socie ... -colleges/

Georgetown, Dartmouth, and Yale are not very far behind, all above 51k. All these numbers might be out of date because a cursory search shows that Notre Dame is well north of 55—higher than the 53.7 Hopkins currently lists on its website.

So give or take a thousand or two, all the top private lacrosse schools have similar tuitions.

[3rdPersonPlural]

Hopkins can find a boatload of families willing to pay full freight (and more apparently - I hear Olivia Jade wants to become a Blue Jay). The web says Hopkins acceptance rate was 14.5% a couple years ago. I am sure amongst the 85-88% that don't get in Hopkins can find 15 acceptable students to boost Daniel's stats and cost no athletic money.

Take a glance at the demographic of lacrosse families. A coach (at Hop or an Ivy or Duke or Georgetown etc.) can shop at nothing but prep schools and publics in affluent areas and fill out a roster without having to dip into his scholly fund to get anyone to sign on.

It's that "Lacrosse Demographic" that's tempting schools to add a DI program. Not the fan base or the opportunity to secure kids from under-served communities.

[51percentcorn]

I'm not saying Hopkins is alone in expensive tuition. Aside from Duke,however, Yale is only a recent player in the major national lacrosse scene and Cornell has not won a title since what - 1977? Yale has the advantage of being what - one of the most elite IVY schools and the 2nd or 3rd ranked school in the entire country?. AND none of these schools has the historical significance of lacrosse to the school that Hopkins has. As I am typing this I am watching one of these schools play in the ACC hoops semi-finals - care to guess which? Super that we have a similar tuition to Colgate. We'll probably have as many titles as the Raiders going forward.

[3rdPersonPlural]

.............AND none of these schools has the historical significance of lacrosse to the school that Hopkins has.........

This is the point. Lax has a legacy, and Hopkins is the only elite college that has that be-a-part-of-a-legacy image. Hop can only hold this mantle for a few more years, though, and then they'll be regarded as a D3 school like Amherst or Wesleyan or Williams that aspires to play D1 lacrosse (like......Hobart)

As a fan of the game, I want Hop to be a final 4 team every year. I really do. However, the game is growing, and when a coach needs a foundation of dumb jocks who need a full ride to attend to compete for the crown, Hop is gonna be ejected from the ranks of the elite along with the Ivies etc.

Thankfully, that point is a decade of more away. We'll need a lucrative Pro league to see that happen. Right now, Hop is suffering from the early recruiting problem, and they have a team that a half dozen years ago would have owned the HS ranks, but now that these kids are wrestling with the challenges of college, not so much.

[WOMBAT, Mod Emeritus]

I'm not saying Hopkins is alone in expensive tuition. Aside from Duke,however, Yale is only a recent player in the major national lacrosse scene and Cornell has not won a title since what - 1977? Yale has the advantage of being what - one of the most elite IVY schools and the 2nd or 3rd ranked school in the entire country?. AND none of these schools has the historical significance of lacrosse to the school that Hopkins has. As I am typing this I am watching one of these schools play in the ACC hoops semi-finals - care to guess which? Super that we have a similar tuition to Colgate. We'll probably have as many titles as the Raiders going forward.

Hopkins will be stuck on 44. The Raiders on 0. Sadly, there will never be a 45wewantmore.

(I know what you meant - you meant getting any additional titles going forward.)

Navy had their DoD (Decade of Dominance).

Hopkins had their CoD (Century of Dominance).

Time to move on, find better things to do.

Take a hike, mow your lawn, paint your house, watch paint dry.

It’s over.

[44WeWantMore]

There is coaching:
- Game planning
- Mid-game adjustments (remember when the Q3 was ours?)
- Player development

But recruiting is affected by elements outside of coaching control.

Baktimore’s police force has become ineffective, inefficient, corrupt, poorly trained, poorly resourcef etc. it’s faults are bleeding over onto the various campuses. It would be irresponsible for the university not to address the need. Rep Cummings was raised in Baltimore and is fully aware of the split that has characterized the relationship. Hopkins purchased blocks of homes, rehabilitated them and provided housing to employees who were victims of crime coming and going to work at an alarming rate. I understand the concept of accountability. Currently Hopkins students have little of it re: the BCPD. In the past I met two of Baltimore’s biggest crime lords both of whom said, in one form or another, the problems were beyond the ability of the BCPD because of racial divides, the close proximity of wealth to poverty etc. The middle class exodus from the City exacerbated everything. Hopkins formed the East Baltimore Community Organization to help address many of these issues. I know they spent a lot of time on them. None of its efforts have been able to eradicate problems that have a very very long history in development. I hope approval is in the offing

Baltimore City was never a recruiting plus for JHU. And if you counter with West Philadelphia, Morningside Heights, New Haven etc., I believe you are working with old information, and the trends are going in opposite directions. While Baltimore continues to decline, I have heard good things about Morningside Heights and New Haven, and personally have seen the revival of West Philadelphia. While Penn has always been a large and steadily growing presence, the explosive growth of Drexel has recently been the difference-maker. And, of course, West Philadelphia and Morningside Heights are steps away from Rittenhouse Square and the Upper West Side.

Your point of cost differential is spot on. Another factor is Hookins academics.

Last year Michael Bloomberg gave Hopkins something like 1.5 billion to get its financial aid program to a level it could accept any student based on merit rather than having to take some based on ability to pay. That should level the playing field. I remember speaking with the very successful father of two players who both went on to become first teamers at an ACC school. He ran through the numbers with me and concluded it was not worth 250k to him to send his kids to JHU because he didn’t believe it made that much difference as graduate degrees began to move to the priority position.

JHU has a reputation on the recruiting circuit as being harder to stay in once you get there than other schools. I asked a. Our players from a decade ago why they chose the Ivy they chose over Hopkins. They both replied because they would have to work harder to stay in school at Hopkins

Did you notice that not a single serious school was targeted in Operation Varsity Blues? Neither the techs (Harvey Mudd, CalTech, MIT), nor the places were fun goes to die (U of C, Wash U, and, of course, JHU) had the high status to effort ratio sought after by the bribers.

Maybe with a LASER focus on USN&WR rankings, JHU can transform itself into a bribe-worth institution,.

[seacoaster]

Maybe this is what JHU doesn't have to offer:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gpr0mazpFcE

[Homer]

Take a glance at the demographic of lacrosse families. A coach (at Hop or an Ivy or Duke or Georgetown etc.) can shop at nothing but prep schools and publics in affluent areas and fill out a roster without having to dip into his scholly fund to get anyone to sign on.

It's that "Lacrosse Demographic" that's tempting schools to add a DI program. Not the fan base or the opportunity to secure kids from under-served communities.

Yes, absolutely. But the point is that a school like Hopkins with an admissions rate of say 12-15% already has a huge pool of "lacrosse demographic" applicants to pick from, many of whom will happily pay full freight. There's no reason to take on the fixed costs of a program to bring in 15 rich kids a year when the spots could otherwise just go to 15 other kids who are equally rich and equally (or more) academically qualified.

That's why the D1 schools you've seen adding programs are as a group mostly relatively small and not overly academically selective -- they don't have a massive application pool and lax tuition payers aren't just fungible with other applicants. There are some notable exceptions but that's the typical profile.

[OCanada]

Baltimore City was at one time a recruiting plus. The school was surrounded by very wealthy communities like Roland Park, Guilford, Homeland etc on one side and solid blue collar and middle class neighborhoods on the other. At one time Greenmount Ave had small businesses thriving because of Memorial Stadium. You could win titles by recruiting well in Baltimore with a bit of LI worked in. We did well off the Island by virtue of distance. A lot of kids wanted to stay home.

It is no longer true and it has become more difficult to recruit for lacrosse the D1 sport. The Dlll sports do well though. Cost is an issue, Workload is an issue, Baktimore’s public perception is an issue, the sociability scale is an issue, the admission standards are an issue, the drop in support from the administration is an issue. and that’s not exhaustive.

There are families that see no point in paying full freight at Hopkins when it can amount to more than 100k in difference especially as the bachelor degree is no longer the terminal degree and a kid can go almost anywhere and if they do well get into a good grad school and do well.

We had one go to Yale. The networking benefits I can attest are valuable. Where else can someone go up to a very well know actress and say “ you know you are just not that special “ when she gets obnoxiously tipsy

[WOMBAT, Mod Emeritus]

Maybe this is what JHU doesn't have to offer:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gpr0mazpFcE

I was expecting a Girls Gone Wild video.

You had to go and post something much worse.

[MDlaxfan76]

I'm not saying Hopkins is alone in expensive tuition. Aside from Duke,however, Yale is only a recent player in the major national lacrosse scene and Cornell has not won a title since what - 1977? Yale has the advantage of being what - one of the most elite IVY schools and the 2nd or 3rd ranked school in the entire country?. AND none of these schools has the historical significance of lacrosse to the school that Hopkins has. As I am typing this I am watching one of these schools play in the ACC hoops semi-finals - care to guess which? Super that we have a similar tuition to Colgate. We'll probably have as many titles as the Raiders going forward.

I agree that no other school of elite academic level has a legacy fully comparable to Hopkins. But you're missing Princeton's legacy from your list. Most recently, under Tierney and with an admissions process that was easier for lax players during that stretch than for other Ivies, perhaps excepting Cornell. They made two choices: Tierney and easier (relatively in Ivy) admissions.

Of course Hopkins is not going to be as dominant as it was historically. No one is. There is much wider dispersion of lax talent.

The question should be whether Hopkins should be expected to be able to compete regularly in the Top 10 and legitimately have a shot at Final 4 and the NC.

That's a choice.

Hopkins lax historically was not a demanding destination from an academic standpoint. Tough school, but admissions was very easy for the lax players and 'basket weaving' was an option. Of course, plenty of very strong students went to Hopkins to play lax and study as well, but studying wasn't necessarily required for all.

I don't think that remains the case, at least not to the same degree.
That's a choice, but I think it's already been made.
So, that's a very different challenge than previously.

That said, Hopkins is not at an admissions disadvantage (for lax) in this regard to ND, UVA, UNC, much less the Ivies.
And, as long as you go to class, you can survive academically...I've been a guest lecturer at Hopkins numerous times and it really isn't an impossible academic environment for at least diligent student. Go to class, read the books. I don't buy for an instant that it's harder to survive at Hopkins than at any of the Ivies. Really not a close call, IMO.

But it's not the same environment for a lax player than it was say 20-40-60 years ago

Want to go into the STEM areas, though, and yeah, I'm impressed. Quite impressed with the football and baseball players' majors for instance. But we don't see the same profile for the lax team. Then again, the admission standards for all the DIII sports are dramatically higher than for the lax team.

So, it's tougher but not impossible.

The other variable that is a choice is the coaching.
Who gets recruited, how they're developed, how they're managed...on and off the field.

Having watched the recruiting decisions over the past decade, particularly through the ER era, it's really not surprising at all to me that Hop's fortunes have declined on a relative basis. Couple that with the reputation about the experience of not being a 'favored' star player' (I don't know if that's accurate, but the rep exists) and it's difficult to see how the current trajectory changes without changes in this area.

I think the stuff about Baltimore, though, is just uninformed. Issues, yes, but the reality is that it's a very attractive urban/suburban campus and environment.

If you want to worry about something, it's how the scheduling and related decisions have led to a diminution of student fan support. But even so, Hopkins remains one of the few places where it can be expected to have multiple games with many thousands in attendance.

[runrussellrun]

Larry Quin.....

.....who IS this guy?

HELLO........the drop down menu shows 4 coaches, but only TWO are live links. Ones for Benson and Quin are NOT live.

All this talk about Hopkins being SO smart.......and certainly one of the top funded lacro$$e programs in the country........they can't fix the spelling error? On the website? What's that say about the details, especially that no one else has noticed it.

Details don't matter for goalies, not in the slightest.

[Hoponboard]

Hopkins just offered admission to 2,950 applicants out of a pool of 30,163. That is an 9.78% offer rate. School may be surprised at their yield when parents fully grasp that Bloomberg’s $1.8 billion gift will result in eliminating loans for domestic students. That will bring the tuition way down for many incoming freshmen. I expect next year’s offer number to drop considerably when the improved yield rate is factored in.

[Hoponboard]

Delaware vs Hop will be reaired on Sunday at 6:00pm on ESPNU.

[MDlaxfan76]

Larry Quin.....

.....who IS this guy?

HELLO........the drop down menu shows 4 coaches, but only TWO are live links. Ones for Benson and Quin are NOT live.

All this talk about Hopkins being SO smart.......and certainly one of the top funded lacro$$e programs in the country........they can't fix the spelling error? On the website? What's that say about the details, especially that no one else has noticed it.

Details don't matter for goalies, not in the slightest.

yeah, that drop down is messed up...and not spelling Quinn correctly is also sloppy.

Going from the roster to the coaches' full page works fine and the links from there work fine.

Not sure what your comment about goalies and details refers to, just Quinn's misspelling?