Lacrosse Analytics

[laxreference]

Here are the statistical previews for all the WLAX games on the schedule today:

- Furman vs Delaware State
- UMass Lowell vs Hartford
- Boston College vs Syracuse
- Johns Hopkins vs Michigan
- American vs Navy
- American vs Lehigh
- Central Michigan vs Robert Morris
- Binghamton vs UMBC
- Louisville vs Notre Dame
- Saint Francis vs Wagner
- Quinnipiac vs Niagara
- Winthrop vs Gardner-Webb
- High Point vs Presbyterian
- Sacred Heart vs Merrimack
- Longwood vs Campbell
- Canisius vs Iona
- Central Conn vs Bryant
- Bucknell vs Army
- Kennesaw State vs Mercer
- Stanford vs California
- Stony Brook vs Albany
- Marist vs Fairfield
- Virginia Tech vs Virginia
- Colgate vs Boston U
- UC Davis vs Fresno State
- Vermont vs New Hampshire

[laxreference]

As always, here is the top individual EGA performances of the past week. The full post is here, but here are the highlights...

Sorana Larson (UCD) made this list not once, but twice for her games against FSU and Cal. In these two Aggie victories, she averaged 15 shots/gm. Prior to that, her season-high was 9. About time.

Here is how the rest of the top 10 shook out:

Dymin Gerow (UMBC) - 10.44 EGA
Erin Kerstetter (WAG) - 8.13 EGA
Sorana Larson (UCD) - 7.97 EGA
Emily Vervlied (BU) - 7.81 EGA
Megan Halczuk (UMBC) - 7.56 EGA
Izzy Liquori (UML) - 7.32 EGA
Kennon Moon (PENN) - 7.30 EGA
Maggie Schneidereith (JHU) - 7.30 EGA
Mena Loescher (HPU) - 7.19 EGA

Here is the infographic in case you want the visual view:

WeeklyEGALeaders_202104271342.png (91.02 KiB) Viewed 2559 times

[laxreference]

As always, here is the top individual EGA performances of the past week. The full post is here, but here are the highlights...

Cassidy Spilis (RU) rung up a 9.59 EGA total against Northwester in the B1G tournament. It wasn't enough to pull the upset, but it's still the top EGA stat line of the week.

Here is how the rest of the top 10 shook out:

Natalie Karlen (CMU) - 9.02 EGA
Nicole McNeely (SIE) - 8.52 EGA
Nicole McNeely (SIE) - 7.99 EGA
Charlotte North (BC) - 7.92 EGA
Kelly Horning (FFL) - 7.65 EGA
Mackenzie Gandy (RMU) - 7.54 EGA
Izzy Scane (NW) - 7.40 EGA
Taryn Ohlmiller (STNY) - 7.39 EGA
Abby Jones (KENT) - 7.11 EGA

Here is the infographic in case you want the visual view:

WeeklyEGALeaders_202105041344.png (88.88 KiB) Viewed 2504 times

[laxreference]

Nice set of 16 games today:

- Stetson vs Jacksonville
- Colgate vs Loyola
- Niagara vs Fairfield
- Detroit Mercy vs Robert Morris
- UMBC vs Stony Brook
- Monmouth vs Siena
- Kennesaw State vs Liberty
- Wofford vs Furman
- Cincinnati vs Florida
- Villanova vs Denver
- Vermont vs Albany
- Mercer vs Coastal Carolina
- Lehigh vs Army
- Temple vs Vanderbilt
- Georgetown vs UConn
- USC vs Colorado

[laxreference]

8 games on the calendar today:

- Temple vs Florida
- UConn vs Denver
- Furman vs Mercer
- Lehigh vs Loyola
- Albany vs Stony Brook
- Liberty vs Jacksonville
- Wagner vs Mount St Mary's
- Colorado vs Stanford

[laxreference]

As always, here is the top individual EGA performances of the past week. The full post is here, but here are the highlights...

Ally Kennedy (STNY) rang up a 10.49 EGA game for the Seawolves just days before they were given the #8 seed in the tournament. I truly wonder how much coaches care about the seedings, especially when they still end up with a top-8 seed.

Here is how the rest of the top 10 shook out:

Hailey Rhatigan (MER) - 8.00 EGA
Ally Kennedy (STNY) - 7.84 EGA
Kasey Dorney (WAG) - 7.58 EGA
Blair Pearre (TOW) - 7.46 EGA
Molly Brock (JAV) - 7.11 EGA
Sadie Grozier (COLO) - 7.04 EGA
Brianna Harris (FL) - 6.84 EGA
Kyra LaMotte (FUR) - 6.74 EGA
Karson Harris (DREX) - 6.64 EGA

Here is the infographic in case you want the visual view:

WeeklyEGALeaders_202105101414.png (84.92 KiB) Viewed 2320 times

[laxreference]

Izzy Scane and Charlotte North have both rung up 94 markers this year, but they've done so in very different ways.

[laxreference]

Got my act together a put together my Pre-Season Top-20.

My rankings are algorithmic. They use a combination of program strength (via my LaxElo ratings), Strength-of-Record (how good is your resume) and metrics around what a team brings back from last year. Obviously, as the season progresses, the SOR metric gains weight and the returning strength metric falls out of the calculation (it's fully gone by the first week in March).

LRNCAAD1WomenWeek00_2022.jpg (52.38 KiB) Viewed 1927 times

[Dr. Tact]

Got my act together a put together my Pre-Season Top-20.

My rankings are algorithmic. They use a combination of program strength (via my LaxElo ratings), Strength-of-Record (how good is your resume) and metrics around what a team brings back from last year. Obviously, as the season progresses, the SOR metric gains weight and the returning strength metric falls out of the calculation (it's fully gone by the first week in March).


LRNCAAD1WomenWeek00_2022.jpg

Thanks for doing this! We have discussed eye test versus analytics before, so I won't go there...except, 1 of the top 4 looks out of place

[laxreference]

Got my act together a put together my Pre-Season Top-20.

My rankings are algorithmic. They use a combination of program strength (via my LaxElo ratings), Strength-of-Record (how good is your resume) and metrics around what a team brings back from last year. Obviously, as the season progresses, the SOR metric gains weight and the returning strength metric falls out of the calculation (it's fully gone by the first week in March).


LRNCAAD1WomenWeek00_2022.jpg

Thanks for doing this! We have discussed eye test versus analytics before, so I won't go there...except, 1 of the top 4 looks out of place

I'm assuming you are talking about Cuse?

Kidding kidding. Jacksonville ended the year in the 8th spot per LaxElo, they return the 4th most production of any team in D1 and they bring in the 16th most production via the transfer portal.

As you know, I'll let everyone else use the eye-test to compare teams. My contribution is the statistical angle and the 'Phins have a lot going for them this year.

[hmmm]

Got my act together a put together my Pre-Season Top-20.

My rankings are algorithmic. They use a combination of program strength (via my LaxElo ratings), Strength-of-Record (how good is your resume) and metrics around what a team brings back from last year. Obviously, as the season progresses, the SOR metric gains weight and the returning strength metric falls out of the calculation (it's fully gone by the first week in March).


LRNCAAD1WomenWeek00_2022.jpg

Thanks for doing this! We have discussed eye test versus analytics before, so I won't go there...except, 1 of the top 4 looks out of place

Definitely some head scratchers. Navy? They lost twice to Lehigh who finished with a better record and isn't in your rankings and their best win was a one goal victory over Army. Colorado was only 8-7 and lost twice to Stanford yet is ahead of them with Stanford bringing in the #1 recruiting class in the country?

[laxreference]

Definitely some head scratchers. Navy? They lost twice to Lehigh who finished with a better record and isn't in your rankings and their best win was a one goal victory over Army. Colorado was only 8-7 and lost twice to Stanford yet is ahead of them with Stanford bringing in the #1 recruiting class in the country?

I don't consider specific head-to-head results (except implicitly since strength-of-record is a factor) or recruiting classes (no data to objectively tell how good these players will be).

Despite the Navy losses, they finished the year as the 17th strongest team, which is most of why they are where they are.

Colorado is bringing in the 12th most production via transfers, which is why they got a bump from their final ranking of 23rd last season.

[Lax101]

Sorry for being so blunt but I hate this analytics stuff. Eye test and knowledge of the game trump's this every time. Just look at where Jax and UMass are ranked. I'll bet you $1,000 dollars that both Jax and UMass perform worse than projected.

[Justalaxdad]

Looks like Richmond, UMass, Colorado, Navy and Dartmouth replaced Penn, UConn, Drexel, Virginia and Rutgers from the Nike/US Lacrosse preseason top 20.

Umass and Jacksonville obviously made the biggest jumps. It’ll be interesting to see how it all pans out. Preseason rankings are like preseason All-Americans - pretty much based on last year’s results. It’s the final rankings and final awards that matter.

At least your rankings have some logic and data to back them up. Thanks for the info!

[Fischer]

Looks like Richmond, UMass, Colorado, Navy and Dartmouth replaced Penn, UConn, Drexel, Virginia and Rutgers from the Nike/US Lacrosse preseason top 20.

Umass and Jacksonville obviously made the biggest jumps. It’ll be interesting to see how it all pans out. Preseason rankings are like preseason All-Americans - pretty much based on last year’s results. It’s the final rankings and final awards that matter.

At least your rankings have some logic and data to back them up. Thanks for the info!

Well that’s not true about preseason AA. because if your logic were true then Emily H would not be a first team AA. she didn’t play the whole season. She should not be there

[user1020]

Anyone sat down and taken the time to make their own poll? Would be somewhat difficult to make but fun to see differences between them and US Lax and Inside Lax

[Bart]

Looks like Richmond, UMass, Colorado, Navy and Dartmouth replaced Penn, UConn, Drexel, Virginia and Rutgers from the Nike/US Lacrosse preseason top 20.

Umass and Jacksonville obviously made the biggest jumps. It’ll be interesting to see how it all pans out. Preseason rankings are like preseason All-Americans - pretty much based on last year’s results. It’s the final rankings and final awards that matter.

At least your rankings have some logic and data to back them up. Thanks for the info!

Well that’s not true about preseason AA. because if your logic were true then Emily H would not be a first team AA. she didn’t play the whole season. She should not be there

I may be alone in this but I’d agree with that. She did not play last year and she is returning from a major injury. Her body of work from last year heading into this year would not make her a preseason AA this year.

I hope she returns to old form and makes an AA run this year.

[Justalaxdad]

Looks like Richmond, UMass, Colorado, Navy and Dartmouth replaced Penn, UConn, Drexel, Virginia and Rutgers from the Nike/US Lacrosse preseason top 20.

Umass and Jacksonville obviously made the biggest jumps. It’ll be interesting to see how it all pans out. Preseason rankings are like preseason All-Americans - pretty much based on last year’s results. It’s the final rankings and final awards that matter.

At least your rankings have some logic and data to back them up. Thanks for the info!

Well that’s not true about preseason AA. because if your logic were true then Emily H would not be a first team AA. she didn’t play the whole season. She should not be there

Actually my logic is spot on. What else could a preseason list of All Americans be based on? Also, did you notice I said "pretty much" based on last years results? I didn't say 100% of the time, so yes, there's always an outlier or a "yeah but" example.

[user1020]

Looks like Richmond, UMass, Colorado, Navy and Dartmouth replaced Penn, UConn, Drexel, Virginia and Rutgers from the Nike/US Lacrosse preseason top 20.

Umass and Jacksonville obviously made the biggest jumps. It’ll be interesting to see how it all pans out. Preseason rankings are like preseason All-Americans - pretty much based on last year’s results. It’s the final rankings and final awards that matter.

At least your rankings have some logic and data to back them up. Thanks for the info!

Well that’s not true about preseason AA. because if your logic were true then Emily H would not be a first team AA. she didn’t play the whole season. She should not be there

I may be alone in this but I’d agree with that. She did not play last year and she is returning from a major injury. Her body of work from last year heading into this year would not make her a preseason AA this year.

I hope she returns to old form and makes an AA run this year.

I’m in agreement

[Lax101]

Maybe I'm missing something but anyone with even an ounce of lax IQ would put EH as a preseason AA. The decision is largely based on the prior season but not exclusively. Her injury happened more than a year ago so she should be back to form for the most part. She was the best overall player on Cuse when she last played and was clearly a Top 10 player in the country. She may have even been pre-season player of the year for the entire country at one point. How do you go from this status to not being an AA. One might argue that she should not be "1st Team" but she is clearly a preseason AA.