~46~ Lame Duck Unfit Uncle Joe Biden ~46~

[old salt]

Russia did invade Crimea & the Donbass. They were not as well prepared to do so as now.

So why didn't they "prepare"?

China was not sending signals that invasion was imminent.

So again....why didn't they do just that?

So again....if weak (militarily) US leadership is what Putin and the Chinese are waiting for....why not strike during 8 years of Obama and
the little D by his name?

This is the largest troop deployment ever on Ukraine's border & the most massive probing of Taiwan's defenses by sea & air.

Again...why not do this when Obama was in charge?

Again, this is where he said "the 80's called, they want their foreign policy is back. No US President will risk war over Taiwan, regardless of the stupid letter by their name. Double goes for Ukraine.

What both China and Russia want to avoid are major sanctions and major economic disruptions. They invade Taiwan, for example? First thing Biden will do is cease trade, and boot all those Chinese students out of the US. THAT hurts.

We took down the Soviets, and it had NOTHING to do with firing a shot. Does no one take notes when stuff like this goes down, or something?

Good God this is tedious. My hair hurts. Time marches on. Circumstances change. The US is viewed as a declining power -- do I need to list the reasons ?

What are you worked up about ?

Because those of us who have been on the Forum since Bush have seen this play before: all the Republicans on the board start telling us that every country in the world is about to fall apart because we have a POTUS with a D by his name.

And here we are again....you're claiming that we're a "declining power" when, what, a week ago, Biden signed another Defense Appropriation bill for....almost a Trillion ()*#$-ing dollars.

It's just tiring. If we're going to play this stupid game again, can I at least get my tax dollars back from that Defense bill that you seem to think makes us a declining power? Seems to me that Biden just signaled we're STILL the big swinging you-know-what in the world with that bill.

Nope. He's a Dem. So everything sucks.

I don't know what the Russians & Chinese are going to do.
I hope they are just probing, testing our defenses, but this scope of deployments & disposition of forces, by both major adversaries, is unprecedented since the Cold War ended. Since Biden has made it clear we won't fight to defend Ukraine or Taiwan, they may conclude that this is their best foreseeable opportunity to grab Ukraine & Taiwan & bear the consequences. We surrendered our strategic ambiguity.
If I get it figured out, I'll let you know. Maybe you're right, Afghanistan was a confidence inspiring success. Obama ordered our tanks to Poland just before he left office & said we should pivot to Asia. This is what that looks like.

[a fan]

I don't know what the Russians & Chinese are going to do.
I hope they are just probing, testing our defenses, but this scope of deployments & disposition of forces, by both major adversaries, is unprecedented since the Cold War ended. Since Biden has made it clear we won't fight to defend Ukraine or Taiwan, they may conclude that this is their best foreseeable opportunity to grab Ukraine & Taiwan & bear the consequences. We surrendered our strategic ambiguity.
If I get it figured out, I'll let you know. Maybe you're right, Afghanistan was a confidence inspiring success. Obama ordered our tanks to Poland just before he left office & said we should pivot to Asia. This is what that looks like.

I appreciate the response.

But no one is going go war over Taiwan or Ukraine. There has NEVER been a military deterrent for either. But what CAN happen, and is almost certain to happen, is a total shut down of trade.

Picture every Chinese student removed. I don't think that either China or Putin want to deal with the consequences.

Which is why they didn't do this under Obama or Trump.

[old salt]

...what CAN happen, and is almost certain to happen, is a total shut down of trade.

Picture every Chinese student removed. I don't think that either China or Putin want to deal with the consequences.

I am not at all confident that would happen.

[a fan]

...what CAN happen, and is almost certain to happen, is a total shut down of trade.

Picture every Chinese student removed. I don't think that either China or Putin want to deal with the consequences.

I am not at all confident that would happen.

Where does the American left---the people who would really lose it, if they took over Taiwan-----have any power in America?

[old salt]

...what CAN happen, and is almost certain to happen, is a total shut down of trade.

Picture every Chinese student removed. I don't think that either China or Putin want to deal with the consequences.

I am not at all confident that would happen.

Where does the American left---the people who would really lose it, if they took over Taiwan-----have any power in America?

Wall Street, Silicon Valley, Hollywood, the NBA.

[Farfromgeneva]

Those are rich folks not there American left. If you can’t distinguish the difference…

[MDlaxfan76]

And to be clear once again, look at what I bolded in blue.
"Watch what happens if there's a shut off of Russian oil and gas.."
That's not simply threatening not to open Nord 2, it's a shut off...that's what would really matter to Russia.

You are misrepresenting my position -- ONLY withhold opening of Nord 2 until there is a settlement ensuring Ukraine's survival,

NOT a complete shut down of other pipelines from Russia which would unacceptably punish EU users.

Nord 2 will allow Russia to invade &/or bypass/strangle Ukraine, while still selling to EU.

Without Nord 2, Russia is econ depn on transit via Ukraine, making invasion unacceptably painful economically.

What the heck am I misrepresenting???
I've distinguished between what you said and something much more significant to Vlad, an actual constriction on Russia's economy.

Your last point, though, is interesting and incremental.
Do you think a threat to stop Nord 2 would mean the withdrawal of Russian forces?

How about a threat that if he did invade, Nord 2 would stop?

Bottomline, we want Vlad to back off and find another project with which to distract his populace from their brutally awful COVID response.

You responded to my proposal of delaying the opening of Nord 2 with a warning about a total shutdown, which was not my recommendation.

But I do agree with you that Nord 2 is the very interesting strategic card; unfortunately, it cuts both ways. You don't like prices at the pump now? Watch what happens if there's a shut off of Russian oil and gas..

I certainly understand the pricing interrelationships between various energy sources...hunch would be that I understand better than you, but you do certainly know a heck of a lot more than me on some other topics, so maybe you do...I was speaking more generally about the strategic threat of cutting off oil and gas purchases from Russia, crushing their economy, should this get to that point...but it is indeed a two sided sword, so even threatening that card can spook markets.

Yup and then I clarified multiple times, exactly what I'd meant. But you ignored.

You also felt the need to proclaim your superior subject matter expertise while saying :

"Watch what happens if there's a shut off of Russian oil and gas.."
That's not simply threatening not to open Nord 2, it's a shut off...that's what would really matter to Russia.

Given your superior understanding, is it your contention that a delay would not matter to Russia. That only a total shutdown matters to Russia ?
-- imho, delay opening until certain conditions are met could be a bargaining chip.

I really don't claim 'superior' knowledge of the strategic implications, cards that can be played, than anyone else on here and that certainly includes you. I do think I may have a stronger understanding of energy markets, but may not...there are certainly people who know far, far more than I do.

That said, I do understand your argument that delay of Nord 2 would be a 'bargaining chip' as its clear that Putin wants Nord 2...but so does Germany as it'd give them an overall lower cost energy portfolio.

It just seems like a piddling response that hurts Germany as much as it would Russia. But yes, a "chip".

I was adding to that 'chip' (which I'm not sure is large) something that certainly would bite super hard, the cutoff of oil and gas purchases from Russia...that would be pretty darn traumatic to world energy markets, at least temporarily, but would crush Russia.

That's what they need to fear from NATO, not bombs. A bloody, tanks roll over Ukraine move by Putin should be understood to have that very possible outcome.

Of course, Russia would try to find other buyers, and would still contribute to overall world energy supply, but far less efficiently...we'd need to increase oil and gas pumping (we'd curtailed hard two years ago when prices went below zero) and OPEC would need to step up...and we'd all pay more for energy for a while, but Russia needs to back the heck off.

[MDlaxfan76]

Those are rich folks not there American left. If you can’t distinguish the difference…

...Then you're on the hard right, and everything else looks 'left'.

[MDlaxfan76]

Russia did invade Crimea & the Donbass. They were not as well prepared to do so as now.

So why didn't they "prepare"?

China was not sending signals that invasion was imminent.

So again....why didn't they do just that?

So again....if weak (militarily) US leadership is what Putin and the Chinese are waiting for....why not strike during 8 years of Obama and
the little D by his name?

This is the largest troop deployment ever on Ukraine's border & the most massive probing of Taiwan's defenses by sea & air.

Again...why not do this when Obama was in charge?

Again, this is where he said "the 80's called, they want their foreign policy is back. No US President will risk war over Taiwan, regardless of the stupid letter by their name. Double goes for Ukraine.

What both China and Russia want to avoid are major sanctions and major economic disruptions. They invade Taiwan, for example? First thing Biden will do is cease trade, and boot all those Chinese students out of the US. THAT hurts.

We took down the Soviets, and it had NOTHING to do with firing a shot. Does no one take notes when stuff like this goes down, or something?

Good God this is tedious. My hair hurts. Time marches on. Circumstances change. The US is viewed as a declining power -- do I need to list the reasons ?

What are you worked up about ?

Because those of us who have been on the Forum since Bush have seen this play before: all the Republicans on the board start telling us that every country in the world is about to fall apart because we have a POTUS with a D by his name.

And here we are again....you're claiming that we're a "declining power" when, what, a week ago, Biden signed another Defense Appropriation bill for....almost a Trillion ()*#$-ing dollars.

It's just tiring. If we're going to play this stupid game again, can I at least get my tax dollars back from that Defense bill that you seem to think makes us a declining power? Seems to me that Biden just signaled we're STILL the big swinging you-know-what in the world with that bill.

Nope. He's a Dem. So everything sucks.

I don't know what the Russians & Chinese are going to do.
I hope they are just probing, testing our defenses, but this scope of deployments & disposition of forces, by both major adversaries, is unprecedented since the Cold War ended. Since Biden has made it clear we won't fight to defend Ukraine or Taiwan, they may conclude that this is their best foreseeable opportunity to grab Ukraine & Taiwan & bear the consequences. We surrendered our strategic ambiguity.
If I get it figured out, I'll let you know. Maybe you're right, Afghanistan was a confidence inspiring success. Obama ordered our tanks to Poland just before he left office & said we should pivot to Asia. This is what that looks like.

I thought you wanted us to go back to isolationism?

[a fan]

...what CAN happen, and is almost certain to happen, is a total shut down of trade.

Picture every Chinese student removed. I don't think that either China or Putin want to deal with the consequences.

I am not at all confident that would happen.

Where does the American left---the people who would really lose it, if they took over Taiwan-----have any power in America?

Wall Street, Silicon Valley, Hollywood, the NBA.

All the largest corporations the world has ever seen, OS. Yet you think they're bomb-throwing hippies?

The answer of course is: University Campuses. Doubly so when the SAT scores go up, which is where many of the Chinese Grad Students are located.

[a fan]

I thought you wanted us to go back to isolationism?

...and this is why I snapped at OS.

The answer to your question is, it depends on which letter the POTUS has by his name. When Trump said "America first", FoxNation and R leadership fell in line, and said "well of course we're not going to concern ourselves with overseas conflicts, it's not our problem".

Contrast that with speeches being made by R's in Congress now that Biden has a D by his name. They want intervention, and they want it now.

F these wankers, is my response to that. How dumb do we have to be as a nation that we'd want to tailor our foreign policy based solely on the political affiliation of the POTUS?

[MDlaxfan76]

I thought you wanted us to go back to isolationism?

...and this is why I snapped at OS.

The answer to your question is, it depends on which letter the POTUS has by his name. When Trump said "America first", FoxNation and R leadership fell in line, and said "well of course we're not going to concern ourselves with overseas conflicts, it's not our problem".

Contrast that with speeches being made by R's in Congress now that Biden has a D by his name. They want intervention, and they want it now.

F these wankers, is my response to that. How dumb do we have to be as a nation that we'd want to tailor our foreign policy based solely on the political affiliation of the POTUS?

It does seem remarkably hypocritical, but this seems to be acceptable these days, especially with the cult.
OS claims he's not part of the cult...but sure does align with them pretty much whenever he can.

[Typical Lax Dad]

...what CAN happen, and is almost certain to happen, is a total shut down of trade.

Picture every Chinese student removed. I don't think that either China or Putin want to deal with the consequences.

I am not at all confident that would happen.

Where does the American left---the people who would really lose it, if they took over Taiwan-----have any power in America?

Wall Street, Silicon Valley, Hollywood, the NBA.

All the largest corporations the world has ever seen, OS. Yet you think they're bomb-throwing hippies?

The answer of course is: University Campuses. Doubly so when the SAT scores go up, which is where many of the Chinese Grad Students are located.

The NBA is pro China.

[Farfromgeneva]

...what CAN happen, and is almost certain to happen, is a total shut down of trade.

Picture every Chinese student removed. I don't think that either China or Putin want to deal with the consequences.

I am not at all confident that would happen.

Where does the American left---the people who would really lose it, if they took over Taiwan-----have any power in America?

Wall Street, Silicon Valley, Hollywood, the NBA.

All the largest corporations the world has ever seen, OS. Yet you think they're bomb-throwing hippies?

The answer of course is: University Campuses. Doubly so when the SAT scores go up, which is where many of the Chinese Grad Students are located.

The NBA is pro China.

Except Daryl Morey

[a fan]

...what CAN happen, and is almost certain to happen, is a total shut down of trade.

Picture every Chinese student removed. I don't think that either China or Putin want to deal with the consequences.

I am not at all confident that would happen.

Where does the American left---the people who would really lose it, if they took over Taiwan-----have any power in America?

Wall Street, Silicon Valley, Hollywood, the NBA.

All the largest corporations the world has ever seen, OS. Yet you think they're bomb-throwing hippies?

The answer of course is: University Campuses. Doubly so when the SAT scores go up, which is where many of the Chinese Grad Students are located.

The NBA is pro China.

And where did the computers everyone is using come from? And where does everyone think the record imports from China to the US go?

It's so stupid. I like how FoxNation can see all those shipping containers waiting to be unloaded on the West....and not realize what the actual problem is. (Pssst, it's not California....it's: why are we importing this garbage if you think China is "the enemy")

[old salt]

I thought you wanted us to go back to isolationism?

...and this is why I snapped at OS.

The answer to your question is, it depends on which letter the POTUS has by his name. When Trump said "America first", FoxNation and R leadership fell in line, and said "well of course we're not going to concern ourselves with overseas conflicts, it's not our problem".

Contrast that with speeches being made by R's in Congress now that Biden has a D by his name. They want intervention, and they want it now.

F these wankers, is my response to that. How dumb do we have to be as a nation that we'd want to tailor our foreign policy based solely on the political affiliation of the POTUS?

BS. I agree with what I thought MDLF76 advocated earlier. Maintain strategic ambiguity (although he may not have used that term) -- demonstrate the ability to intervene militarily & significantly on behalf of Ukraine & Taiwan, without committing to do so or ruling out the possibility.

I'm isolationist in that I think we extended NATO too far eastward. I don't want Ukraine & Georgia in NATO & I'd be willing to limit NATO expansion, deployments & operations, as well as nuc weapons, as part of verifiable negotiations with Russia, which would lead to us bringing home our forces on rotational deployments to NATO's E front. I'd let our NATO allies know that the nature & degree of our participation in NATO's defense of EU members is contingent upon their equivalent support & participation with our Pacific allies in dealing with China. We decide the degree of our participation in/contributions to NATO Article 4 operations. For the US (& especially Canada), NATO needs to be a global alliance.

[MDlaxfan76]

I thought you wanted us to go back to isolationism?

...and this is why I snapped at OS.

The answer to your question is, it depends on which letter the POTUS has by his name. When Trump said "America first", FoxNation and R leadership fell in line, and said "well of course we're not going to concern ourselves with overseas conflicts, it's not our problem".

Contrast that with speeches being made by R's in Congress now that Biden has a D by his name. They want intervention, and they want it now.

F these wankers, is my response to that. How dumb do we have to be as a nation that we'd want to tailor our foreign policy based solely on the political affiliation of the POTUS?

BS. I agree with what I thought MDLF76 advocated earlier. Maintain strategic ambiguity (although he may not have used that term) -- demonstrate the ability to intervene militarily & significantly on behalf of Ukraine & Taiwan, without committing to do so or ruling out the possibility.

I'm isolationist in that I think we extended NATO too far eastward. I don't want Ukraine & Georgia in NATO & I'd be willing to limit NATO expansion, deployments & operations, as well as nuc weapons, as part of verifiable negotiations with Russia, which would lead to us bringing home our forces on rotational deployments to NATO's E front. I'd let our NATO allies know that the nature & degree of our participation in NATO's defense of EU members is contingent upon their equivalent support & participation with our Pacific allies in dealing with China. We decide the degree of our participation in/contributions to NATO Article 4 operations. For the US (& especially Canada), NATO needs to be a global alliance.

I like the thought of a global alliance of democracies (see the mtgs organized by the Biden Admin this past week), but seems to me that you've just told us that you're specifically and only "isolationist" (despite all your past arguments on behalf of isolationism) when it comes to Putin's Russia and its expansive aggression and confrontation with democracies around the world, whether nascent or longstanding.

I didn't use the term strategic ambiguity, though support it. It certainly it would have been useful to have had a consistent through line on that policy, but it was largely lost over the past handful of years of bowing and scraping to authoritarians of various stripes, the welcoming even of election interference. So, they're gonna push...

I think it's been commonly understood that we weren't going to push to get into a bloody conflict with either Russia or China, but that didn't mean that we wouldn't arm our allies and use all other tools at our disposal...while always having the last resort of military action...but very last resort and maybe not...

[a fan]

BS. I agree with what I thought MDLF76 advocated earlier. Maintain strategic ambiguity (although he may not have used that term) -- demonstrate the ability to intervene militarily & significantly on behalf of Ukraine & Taiwan, without committing to do so or ruling out the possibility.

This is great if you think Putin and the Chinese leadership are utter morons. EVERYONE knows we're not going to start a war over either Ukraine or Taiwan. And the reason everyone knows that is that we don't have a US base in either. If you want to tell me that these leaders are idiots and don't know the score, fine.

Biden is following Trump's lead: America First. Don't like it? Complain to Trump. I, for one, am overjoyed that we're pumping the brakes on playin global cop, even if it's just for a few years. We started this Cop game way the F back in 1944. Time for a break. And if you recall? I praised Trump for this. Check your R leaders on the floor with their hypocritical flip flop speeches about wanting immediate intervention.

I'm sick of American leaders overcompensation for small weenies trying to show the world how tough they are. But they're not the ones who have to go into a combat zone to back up the BS.

I'm isolationist in that I think we extended NATO too far eastward. I don't want Ukraine & Georgia in NATO & I'd be willing to limit NATO expansion, deployments & operations, as well as nuc weapons, as part of verifiable negotiations with Russia, which would lead to us bringing home our forces on rotational deployments to NATO's E front. I'd let our NATO allies know that the nature & degree of our participation in NATO's defense of EU members is contingent upon their equivalent support & participation with our Pacific allies in dealing with China. We decide the degree of our participation in/contributions to NATO Article 4 operations. For the US (& especially Canada), NATO needs to be a global alliance.

You already got it right the first time-------- hold the Germans coat for them.

As for Taiwan, it's an economic engine that works for China----they get to pretend to be Commies (snicker), all while using Capitalism to innovate and pull the entire country forward. They can't afford to shut that down. If they do? That benefits US and the EU.

So by all means, "invade" Taiwan, if they're that stupid.

[old salt]

FTR -- I've said that I have isolationist tendencies. That is the way I am inclined until cirumstances & pragmatism dictate otherwise.

We can't undo what's been done. Instead of global cop, I prefer we act as the leader of a vigilante posse of democracies.
Due to our history up to this point, it's impossible to be isolationist in the pre/post WW-I sense.

Strategic ambiguity is necessary, We may calculate that Putin & Xi won't invade, but we can't be sure.
If we disarm the posse, we give up deterrence & leave the door open.

[Typical Lax Dad]

...what CAN happen, and is almost certain to happen, is a total shut down of trade.

Picture every Chinese student removed. I don't think that either China or Putin want to deal with the consequences.

I am not at all confident that would happen.

Where does the American left---the people who would really lose it, if they took over Taiwan-----have any power in America?

Wall Street, Silicon Valley, Hollywood, the NBA.

All the largest corporations the world has ever seen, OS. Yet you think they're bomb-throwing hippies?

The answer of course is: University Campuses. Doubly so when the SAT scores go up, which is where many of the Chinese Grad Students are located.

The NBA is pro China.

And where did the computers everyone is using come from? And where does everyone think the record imports from China to the US go?

It's so stupid. I like how FoxNation can see all those shipping containers waiting to be unloaded on the West....and not realize what the actual problem is. (Pssst, it's not California....it's: why are we importing this garbage if you think China is "the enemy")

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basketball_in_China

The NBA's business operations in China is worth more than $5 billion, and the league plans to continue showing its product despite tensions between the two global superpowers.