All things CoronaVirus

[Typical Lax Dad]

This is funny though I have to admit I wrote a well crafted argument for the written portion of the GMAT back in the day arguing that seatbelt laws likely create moral hazard that causes folks in the aggregate to drive less safely and create more accidents. And I do believe in moral hazard from laws claimed to protect individuals either from themselves or from others. The concept itself (moral hazard) gets hand waived off far too easily and dismissively based on presumed behavior of individuals that is too optimistic for the reality of who and what people are.

Having watched crash test dummies and then speaking to engineers about the results, I have not left a parking spot without a seatbelt.

Sure but that wasn’t a law that is intended to modify behavior with government sanctioned punishment. “We” often do assume behavior of others and it get exacerbated when it comes behind govt law or mandate. “We” shouldn’t assume anything since, like, Free Will and whatnot, but it’s sort of instinctual to people from my observations.

That one song of theirs is catchy though.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=eTeg1txDv8w

People push back against laws that have government sanctioned punishment as a deterrent?

[Farfromgeneva]

This is funny though I have to admit I wrote a well crafted argument for the written portion of the GMAT back in the day arguing that seatbelt laws likely create moral hazard that causes folks in the aggregate to drive less safely and create more accidents. And I do believe in moral hazard from laws claimed to protect individuals either from themselves or from others. The concept itself (moral hazard) gets hand waived off far too easily and dismissively based on presumed behavior of individuals that is too optimistic for the reality of who and what people are.

Having watched crash test dummies and then speaking to engineers about the results, I have not left a parking spot without a seatbelt.

Sure but that wasn’t a law that is intended to modify behavior with government sanctioned punishment. “We” often do assume behavior of others and it get exacerbated when it comes behind govt law or mandate. “We” shouldn’t assume anything since, like, Free Will and whatnot, but it’s sort of instinctual to people from my observations.

That one song of theirs is catchy though.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=eTeg1txDv8w

People push back against laws that have government sanctioned punishment as a deterrent?

Sure, but my point was more that if they assume everyone else is safer they’re more likely to drive less safely. That’s the hazard. It reduces the proactive behavior of drivers if they assume consequences are more ring fences in terms or outcomes because everyone has seat belts on.

[Typical Lax Dad]

This is funny though I have to admit I wrote a well crafted argument for the written portion of the GMAT back in the day arguing that seatbelt laws likely create moral hazard that causes folks in the aggregate to drive less safely and create more accidents. And I do believe in moral hazard from laws claimed to protect individuals either from themselves or from others. The concept itself (moral hazard) gets hand waived off far too easily and dismissively based on presumed behavior of individuals that is too optimistic for the reality of who and what people are.

Having watched crash test dummies and then speaking to engineers about the results, I have not left a parking spot without a seatbelt.

Sure but that wasn’t a law that is intended to modify behavior with government sanctioned punishment. “We” often do assume behavior of others and it get exacerbated when it comes behind govt law or mandate. “We” shouldn’t assume anything since, like, Free Will and whatnot, but it’s sort of instinctual to people from my observations.

That one song of theirs is catchy though.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=eTeg1txDv8w

People push back against laws that have government sanctioned punishment as a deterrent?

Sure, but my point was more that if they assume everyone else is safer they’re more likely to drive less safely. That’s the hazard. It reduces the proactive behavior of drivers if they assume consequences are more ring fences in terms or outcomes because everyone has seat belts on.

Got it.

[Farfromgeneva]

First North American Omicron cases identified in Canada
Axios
Yacob Reyes, Ivana Saric
COVID-19 testing at Toronto Pearson International Airport
COVID-19 testing personnel at Toronto Pearson International Airport in September. Photo: Steve Russell/Toronto Star via Getty Images
The first two cases of the new Omicron variant have been detected in North America, the Canadian government announced Sunday evening.

Driving the news: The World Health Organization has named Omicron a "variant of concern," but cautioned earlier on Sunday that it is not yet clear whether it's more transmissible than other strains of COVID-19.

The new strain has also been detected in several European countries, the United Kingdom, Israel and Hong Kong.
The big picture: The two individuals in Canada who tested positive had recently traveled from Nigeria, per the statement from Ottawa Public Health.

France's Ministry of Health also announced in a press release on Sunday evening that it has detected eight possible cases of the variant. Testing is underway to confirm their diagnosis.
Botswana's Health Minister Edwin Dikoloti announced Sunday that the country has identified 15 more cases of the Omicron variant, Reuters reports.
Health officials in Australia announced on Sunday that they detected two cases of the variant in travelers from southern Africa, the first such cases identified on the continent.
Both people who tested positive were asymptomatic and fully vaccinated, the country's health agency said in a release.
The Netherlands also reported that they had identified cases of the variant among 13 passengers who arrived from southern Africa, per the National Institute for Health.
The big picture: Many countries have begun restricting or banning travel from nations in southern Africa in an effort to curb the spread of the variant.

Australia imposed new security measures just a day before the variant was identified, barring anyone who is not a citizen or permanent resident from entering after having traveled to south African countries.
The Netherlands have also imposed restrictions on travel to and from southern Africa, and the country has also announced other measures such as an evening lockdown, according to the New York Times.
Go deeper:

Fauci: Omicron variant will "inevitably" be found in U.S.
NIH director: "No reason to panic" yet about Omicron variant
U.S. to restrict air travel from 8 countries over new COVID variant concerns
Editor's note: This story has been updated with new details throughout.

[kramerica.inc]

"We are in the midst of a crisis with the coronavirus," Biden tweeted as a presidential candidate last year the day after Trump imposed travel restrictions from China into the United States. "We need to lead the way with science — not hysteria, xenophobia, and fear-mongering. He is the worst possible person to lead our country through a global health emergency."

https://twitter.com/serafinos/status/13 ... 62209?s=21



It was bad when Trump did it. Now it’s smart action.



Biden doesn’t even believe what he’s saying.

stop posting things like this....or you'll be put in a box of not believing in democracy and a forever trump supporter.

Those unable to admit the double standard (on both sides), are also willing to accept each and every change as progress (but only if its from their side)....just not mean tweets and if you have orange skin.

The double standard and hypocrisy is lost on many.

Trump is a racist, for his track record and bombast. But Biden's track record that includes tangible racist/bigoted actions to include "articulate and bright" talk, the largest mass incarceration bill, and travel bans is good governing.

[Farfromgeneva]

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=KpYVXf4aoT4

[MDlaxfan76]

This is funny though I have to admit I wrote a well crafted argument for the written portion of the GMAT back in the day arguing that seatbelt laws likely create moral hazard that causes folks in the aggregate to drive less safely and create more accidents. And I do believe in moral hazard from laws claimed to protect individuals either from themselves or from others. The concept itself (moral hazard) gets hand waived off far too easily and dismissively based on presumed behavior of individuals that is too optimistic for the reality of who and what people are.

Having watched crash test dummies and then speaking to engineers about the results, I have not left a parking spot without a seatbelt.

Sure but that wasn’t a law that is intended to modify behavior with government sanctioned punishment. “We” often do assume behavior of others and it get exacerbated when it comes behind govt law or mandate. “We” shouldn’t assume anything since, like, Free Will and whatnot, but it’s sort of instinctual to people from my observations.

That one song of theirs is catchy though.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=eTeg1txDv8w

People push back against laws that have government sanctioned punishment as a deterrent?

Sure, but my point was more that if they assume everyone else is safer they’re more likely to drive less safely. That’s the hazard. It reduces the proactive behavior of drivers if they assume consequences are more ring fences in terms or outcomes because everyone has seat belts on.

Got it.

Except that people didn't drive less safely because they and others now wear seat belts. If anything, it became a reminder of the risk one takes when operating a car. That's how the behavioral science worked on this one, as it does in a number of other cases in which attention is brought to the actor prior to taking further action.

For instance, asking a person to attest, by signature, to honest answers on a form is much more effective at the top of the form, before answering questions, than at the end. Very significant differential.

Moral hazard is indeed real, but that's not the way this type of action actually works.

[CU88]

The link:
https://yourlocalepidemiologist.substac ... ource=copy

Omicron Update: Nov 27

Katelyn Jetelina
Nov 27

There is a lot of anxiety. I have a lot of anxiety. The public is being asked to understand the second most complex system in the human body while navigating a sea of misinformation while coping with significant pandemic exhaustion and mental health problems. All while receiving little-to-no communication.

So, I thought I would give you a quick update on where we’re at. This what we’ve learned in the past 36 hours since my last update:

1. WHO declared B.1.1.529 a Variant of Concern (VOC) and named it Omicron.

WHO skipped Nu (because it’s too easily confounded with “new”) and Xi because it’s a common surname. This has already become political in the U.S…..

VOC is a more severe classification than “Variant of Interest” but less severe than “Variant of High Consequence”. After working with South African health officials, WHO had enough evidence to say Omicron is more transmissible and had enough key changes on the spike protein that were concerning.

2. We have received one update from the CDC, which was a few lines long. They basically said there are no cases in the U.S. and to keep public health mitigation measures in place. The deafening silence from the CDC is the most disheartening thing to me.

3. Several more Omicron cases have been confirmed worldwide. BNO newsroom is keeping a great count:


But even this is a little “outdated” because this situation is changing by the minute. To add more cases and context to this list:

Israel: Now has 4 confirmed cases: 1 from travel and 3 from community transmission. The confirmation of community transmission is what prompted their shut down.

Belgium: 1 case has been identified. An unvaccinated young woman developed flu-like symptoms 11 days after travelling to Egypt via Turkey. She hadn’t traveled to South Africa. Because of this, Belgium is retroactively tracking 47 potential cases. They’re looking at past PCR positives to ensure Omicron wasn’t spreading under the radar.

Netherlands: You may notice the 61 in the table above. There were two flights from South Africa that landed in Amsterdam late last night. Upon arrival, all 600 passengers were tested on the tarmac and 61 tests came back positive. A 10% prevalence rate on a flight is unbelievably high. Like defies imagination (as Bergstrom said). Especially given all passengers were negative before take off. With these positive cases we need to know a few things:

Were these people connected in some way before the flight (like in a tour or same hotel room)?

What was the vaccination rate (type, timing, boosted)?

What are the symptoms?

And, of course, were these caused by Omicron?

We should have an update soon.

4. We still have no scientific updates on Omicron’s impact on immunity escape or transmissibility. If you’re hearing anything right now (even if it’s the British PM) it’s purely speculation. Hypotheses are important to discuss, but not the solid evidence we need. Getting answers takes time because good science takes time. I give it a week or two until the evidence starts rolling in.

5. We’re seeing a lot of cases but not a lot of severe disease. Yesterday, Dr. Rudo Mathivha, head of the ICU at an Omicron epicenter hospital said that among their patients:

“About 65% are not vaccinated and most of the rest are only half-vaccinated”.

This is incredibly encouraging news. This may be a sign that our vaccines continue to protect against severe disease and death. I cannot stress enough, though, that this is preliminary evidence. We need to know a few more things:

Is this because of a small sample size? Maybe Omicron just hasn’t spread enough in South Africa to see hospitalizations rise.

Is this because of lag time? Population-level hospitalization trends lag cases trends by 3-4 weeks.

Is this because of the population? Populations will respond differently to infections. What may be happening in South Africa may not be representative of what will happen elsewhere.

Bottom Line: We still have more questions than answers. But we will get them soon. Do not take Omicron lightly, but don’t abandon hope either. Our immune systems are incredible.

None of this changes what you can to do right now: Ventilate spaces. Use masks. Test if you have symptoms. Isolate if positive. Get vaccinated. Get boosted. (Yes, get vaccinated. I’ll explain more about this tomorrow.)

No idea if this helps, but thought I could bring you along for the ride.

Love, YLE

[Farfromgeneva]

This is funny though I have to admit I wrote a well crafted argument for the written portion of the GMAT back in the day arguing that seatbelt laws likely create moral hazard that causes folks in the aggregate to drive less safely and create more accidents. And I do believe in moral hazard from laws claimed to protect individuals either from themselves or from others. The concept itself (moral hazard) gets hand waived off far too easily and dismissively based on presumed behavior of individuals that is too optimistic for the reality of who and what people are.

Having watched crash test dummies and then speaking to engineers about the results, I have not left a parking spot without a seatbelt.

Sure but that wasn’t a law that is intended to modify behavior with government sanctioned punishment. “We” often do assume behavior of others and it get exacerbated when it comes behind govt law or mandate. “We” shouldn’t assume anything since, like, Free Will and whatnot, but it’s sort of instinctual to people from my observations.

That one song of theirs is catchy though.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=eTeg1txDv8w

People push back against laws that have government sanctioned punishment as a deterrent?

Sure, but my point was more that if they assume everyone else is safer they’re more likely to drive less safely. That’s the hazard. It reduces the proactive behavior of drivers if they assume consequences are more ring fences in terms or outcomes because everyone has seat belts on.

Got it.

Except that people didn't drive less safely because they and others now wear seat belts. If anything, it became a reminder of the risk one takes when operating a car. That's how the behavioral science worked on this one, as it does in a number of other cases in which attention is brought to the actor prior to taking further action.

For instance, asking a person to attest, by signature, to honest answers on a form is much more effective at the top of the form, before answering questions, than at the end. Very significant differential.

Moral hazard is indeed real, but that's not the way this type of action actually works.

Attention could be the reason for the decline, we don't know how they would've behaved with, say, information but no criminalization. We don't really know what the change in outcomes is derived from - information or threat of punishment (the old counterfactual). In other words, safety could've accelerated further without the law. You'd have to talk to every single driver, presuming honesty, or at least a sampling that's impossible to capture for modeling purposes. Simply can't define well safety. Having lived in DC, NYC and Atlanta, three of the very worst driving cities in the eastern third of the country, and driven all over 15 states for years, I see all sorts of funky behavior from speeding, to getting to that exit no matter where the are on the road to not using signals etc. Most is codified as illegal. Most can cause accidents as can f'ng with serious/xm, hands free phones on dashboard mounts or appleplay which isn't illegal depending on interpretation of various laws. I don't see adding laws as really modifying behavior. Spreading information and educating does - see TLD as an example, he didn't need a law he needed to see Crash Test Dummies resulting damage.

And we only know from accidents who is or isn't actually wearing seatbelts - until technology chips every aspect of our behavior to monitor. Rental car co's are already starting to do it, so it's heading in that direction.

I don't think it can be said that adding seatbelt laws in isolation did anything to improve the safety aspect of individual drivers. Then comes the argument that driving is a privilege, but given inequities leading to where the working class has to go from to earn an income to survive and the lack of public transportation options but subsidies to corporations to relocate to specific areas I think that argument is highly diluted at this point.

[ggait]

8 billion vax doses have been given worldwide.

Man it is going to be bad when all those long term side effects start showing up.

Human race could possibly end once all those people are unable to reproduce due to the untested vax.

[seacoaster]

From the Post this AM:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2 ... RXBVCRLCTI

"What do we know about the new variant?

Omicron’s genetic profile is unique from other circulating variants, meaning it represents a new lineage of the virus.

It is distinct from other variants in another critical way: There’s a greater number of mutations. Tulio de Oliveira, director of the Center for Epidemic Response and Innovation in South Africa, said there are more than 30 mutations in the spike protein, the part of the virus that binds to human cells, allowing it to gain entry.

Scientists are worried those mutations could make omicron more transmissible and potentially equipped to defy immune defenses, making vaccines less effective. The WHO said Friday that preliminary evidence suggests an “increased risk of reinfection” compared with other variants.

“The one good news, if there’s any good news, is that this variant, the B.1.1.529, can be detected by one particular PCR assay,” de Oliveira said at a news conference, meaning diagnostic labs can quickly identify the new variant.

Jesse Bloom, a virologist at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, who has conducted mutational scanning experiments for the variant, noted that three mutations could make the virus a more elusive target for antibodies produced through vaccines or prior infection.

“What that’s going to mean for how likely people are to get infected, even if they’ve been vaccinated, it’s too early to say,” Bloom said, noting that more traditional experiments should provide more data. “But having a drop in the antibody neutralization is never a good thing.”

Linda Bauld, a professor of public health at the University of Edinburgh, said there were “genuine” causes for concern given that “it does look like a more transmissible variant.” But she added: “I think it’s premature to panic. … There’s just a lot we don’t know at the moment.”

What’s being done to halt the spread of omicron?

Within days of the discovery of the variant, several countries began imposing restrictions on flights to and from South Africa and its neighbors.

Israel closed its borders to “foreigners from all countries.” Australia, Britain, the United States, Japan, Thailand are among nations curbing travel from southern Africa or imposing new quarantine rules for those arriving from the region. The United Kingdom said Saturday that it would require all international travelers to take a PCR test within two days of arrival and quarantine until their test returns a negative result.

The U.S. restrictions will apply to travelers from South Africa, Botswana, Zimbabwe, Namibia, Lesotho, Eswatini, Mozambique and Malawi. They do not apply to American citizens and lawful permanent residents. President Biden, in a statement, said the move is “a precautionary measure.” He urged Americans to get vaccinated and get booster shots.

Officials in South Africa expressed concern about the travel bans, while some experts cast doubt on the efficacy of the restrictions, noting that they may be too late. The nation’s health minister, Joe Phaahla, characterized them as a “draconian reaction.”

“It really doesn’t look scientific in any way,” he said. “That kind of reaction is quite a knee-jerk and panicked and almost wants to put a blame on other countries rather than work together.”

Before the novel coronavirus spread through the world, a study published in February 2020 in the Journal of Emergency Management found that a travel ban could delay the arrival of an infectious disease in a country by days or weeks. However, little evidence suggested it eliminated the risk of the virus jumping borders in the long term.

Amesh Adalja, an infectious-disease physician and professor at Johns Hopkins University, said the measure would do little or nothing to curb the spread of a variant that may have been “spreading for probably several days or weeks before it was noticed.”

Faheem Younus, an infectious-disease specialist at the University of Maryland, said that by the time travel bans are imposed, “the new variant has already traveled out of the country.” He noted that the O.R. Tambo International Airport near Johannesburg serves more than 1 million travelers a month.

“These bans also come at a cost and will disincentive other countries in the future,” he said. “‘Why alert the world promptly if that means your people will be punished and your economy crushed?’ they might wonder.”

[Carroll81]

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=KpYVXf4aoT4

"oh boy, its hard to be woke"
--- Jaylen

[youthathletics]

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=KpYVXf4aoT4

"oh boy, its hard to be woke"
--- Jaylen

What a great clip. That classroom reminds me of fanlax.

[MDlaxfan76]

I think you're missing the behavioral science I'm referencing.

People started wearing seat belts more often, who had not, despite plenty of info (and counter info from those who didn't want to), only when it was required. Before that it was information and counter information. But with the legal requirement, ala not driving through red lights, seat belt compliance jumped hugely. Auto makers were then required to install beepers that reminded people to buckle up. Compliance increased even further. Tipping point, very few scofflaws over all. (and my insurance won't pay if I'm not wearing a seat belt).

But what I'm referencing is that instead of people driving less safely (moral hazard), driving behaviors did not degrade, they improved. There was a reminder every time one got in the car and the belt beeped or one buckled up without the beep that one was driving a dangerous machine...that was at the beginning of each drive. Now, I'm not claiming some huge benefit in driving behaviors, but it did not go the other way...it was not as if people became less concerned with an accident...there's all sorts of other reasons to not want to be in accident...and now there's a reminder (and less societal cost if one occurs).

Another analogy is the routine many gun owners go through with checking their weapons frequently and publicly, signaling to others and reminding themselves of the dangerous power they are wielding. We do it quite publicly, on purpose, but we also do it when alone, as it's simply part of the drill. Frankly, I'd be all for trigger locks required by law, safe storage required by law. all of that would serve as good reminders that weapons should only be handled by those trained to do so, respecting their deadly power.

We've heard of the breakdown on the usual rigorous process on a movie set and the awful consequences of such. But contrast this with the many thousands of instances in which procedures were followed, loudly, at each step. Required (not by law) but by insurance protocols, I'm sure. Greater care, on purpose, safer.

[jhu72]

8 billion vax doses have been given worldwide.

Man it is going to be bad when all those long term side effects start showing up.

Human race could possibly end once all those people are unable to reproduce due to the untested vax.

You know their has not been a single baby born to a vaccinated mother.

[Typical Lax Dad]

8 billion vax doses have been given worldwide.

Man it is going to be bad when all those long term side effects start showing up.

Human race could possibly end once all those people are unable to reproduce due to the untested vax.

You know their has not been a single baby born to a vaccinated mother.

“With these mutations, it makes no sense for people to get vaccinated”

[kramerica.inc]

Vaccinated Bryan Adams Tests Positive for COVID a Second Time in One Month

https://www.newsweek.com/vaccinated-bry ... gh-1653521

What the heck is Adams doing that he's getting infected twice in a mos? And who has he been spreading it to?

Dude needs to learn to wash his hands FFS.

[seacoaster]

Of course, more (not) shocking news about the GOP and its oracle of stupidity:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics ... n-variant/

"We know precious little about the newly identified variant of the coronavirus, omicron. Governments including the United States’ have rapidly swung into action with contentious measures such as travel restrictions, girding for the worst even as health officials acknowledge we just don’t know a lot yet.

But in some corners of the debate, there is some certainty: certainty that all of this is overblown — even something amounting to a Democratic hoax.

Except these fast-emerging conspiracy theories come from the same corners that suggested the virus wouldn’t be nearly as bad as it has indeed turned out to be. And they ignore that we have very real evidence of how troublesome and deadly these variants can be — not will be, but can be. There is a demonstrated market for knee-jerk declarations that the coronavirus is being oversold and, despite the history of such declarations from some of the same people, it’s again being exploited.

The theories run the gamut, but they all hark back to one central idea: that this is meant to help Democrats.

On “Fox & Friends” this weekend, the variant was supposedly a conspiracy to help the Biden administration and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg explain away continued pandemic-era supply chain problems.

“That’s the answer — is more lockdowns, more lockdowns, more fear,” host Rachel Campos-Duffy said. “And therefore, [Buttigieg] doesn’t have to do his job of fixing the supply chain, because we’ll just keep this whole thing going.”

Host Will Cain responded: “There’s always a new variant.”

Host Pete Hegseth added, conspiratorially: “Count on a variant about every October, every two years” — referring to the month before elections. Hegseth joked while holding a make-believe phone up to his ear: “We’re gonna need a new variant here.”

To Rep. Ronny Jackson (R-Tex.), the variant was also a supposed electoral ploy by Democrats — not to explain away supply chain issues, but rather to increase the availability of mail-in balloting. The former White House doctor to Barack Obama and Donald Trump with a decidedly checkered recent past said mockingly: “Here comes the MEV - the Midterm Election Variant!”

“They NEED a reason to push unsolicited nationwide mail-in ballots,” Jackson tweeted. “Democrats will do anything to CHEAT during an election - but we’re not going to let them!”

The same weekend on Fox News, the variant was supposedly a drummed-up reason to infringe upon people’s civil liberties. Lara Logan even seemed to suggest we shouldn’t be testing for new variants because we’re just going to find them.

“If they keep testing for different strains of coronavirus, we’re going to be locked down for the rest of our existence,” Logan said, despite there being very few shutdowns right now and President Biden saying we won’t have more.

Logan went on to suggest that such coronaviruses are just something that inherently exist (other coronaviruses do exist, but they are not nearly as deadly as the current iteration and its variants). Logan added that the variants were a manufactured problem: “They’ve created a problem that can never actually be solved, so they can justify whatever it is they want to do.”

As Logan said these things, Fox medical expert Marc Siegel appeared in a separate box on screen nodding along. Asked to respond, he said he was in “complete agreement” with Logan about the economic and societal cost of shutdowns.

Logan retains her slot at Fox despite having an awful track record of spreading coronavirus vaccine misinformation and other baseless claims. Siegel, you might recall, offered one of the worst predictions about the coronavirus back in March 2020, stating: “This virus should be compared to the flu. Because at worst — worst-case scenario — it could be the flu.” The host of the show they were appearing on, Jeanine Pirro, stated in early 2020: “All the talk about coronavirus being so much more deadly [than the flu] doesn’t reflect reality.”

The reality is that the coronavirus has proved much more deadly than the flu, both in raw numbers and in the percentage of people who contract the virus becoming seriously ill or dying.

The confluence of those three people being present for such a conversation about the new variant being a supposed political ploy is an irony that shouldn’t be lost upon anyone. But they are merely three in a bevy of people who wrongly downplayed the virus and, despite that experience, continue to do so.

There is a cottage industry for casting doubt on the pandemic, starting with Trump’s early repeated flu comparisons and assurances that it would just go away — potentially relatively quickly. Vice President Mike Pence wrote an op-ed in summer 2020 saying there was no second wave of the coronavirus, even as the second wave was beginning to take off. And while the pandemic doubters have cast this as an electoral ploy, remember that Trump himself cast significant doubt on the severity of the coming fall and winter 2020-2021 surge — before it became the worst of the pandemic thus far.

What’s perhaps most gobsmacking about the effort to declare the omicron variant to be a political ploy is that we have plenty of evidence that variants can pose huge problems; the delta variant rendered vaccines significantly less effective in stopping the spread of the virus, though they still made a huge dent in hospitalizations and deaths.

It’s important to emphasize how little we know right now about omicron. There is some evidence that it might not be as bad as the delta variant, and some good-faith critics have questioned the need for the kinds of travel restrictions the U.S. government and others have launched. Everyone’s on a hair trigger — perhaps understandably — given that we’re approaching 800,000 Americans dead from the coronavirus. Perhaps the new variant will prove to be less serious.

But there’s a difference between arguing for more caution and suggesting that the new variant is a half-baked political ploy, somehow launched with the assistance of the World Health Organization. We simply don’t know how bad it could be, which health officials have said repeatedly even as we’ve prepared for the worst. If your argument is that it’s premature to enact things like travel bans, you could say that; but as with early in the pandemic, these theories take things to an extreme, suggesting the whole thing just isn’t worth taking seriously. Everything must be some kind of “hoax.”

That these conspiracy theories continue to be aired in the absence of firm evidence and despite such comments having revealed to be so foolhardy demonstrates how little we have learned. Or at least it demonstrates how little certain people with real influence have learned — and how small a price they’ve paid the price when it comes to their credibility."

[kramerica.inc]

Things getting back to about normal in Jersey:

https://www.instagram.com/reel/CWlMkNTp ... =copy_link

[ggait]

This is what passes, these days, for a reasonable Republican:

https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/p ... p-1263967/