The Nation's Financial Condition

[youthathletics]

Nice to Nancy doing it again, this time....we have to pass it before we do the math. In 2017, she clamored we must wait for the CBO score, now of course no need need.

[NattyBohChamps04]

October jobs report: Payrolls grew by 531,000 as unemployment rate fell to 4.6%

Dow & S&P at record highs.

How's your 401(k) doing?

[Peter Brown]

Blue states including Nevada (7.7%), New York (7.6%), New Mexico (7.6%), California (7.6%) and New Jersey (7.3%) had substantially higher unemployment rates than the national average of 5.4% in July, the data shows. By comparison, red states – such as Nebraska (2.3%), Utah (2.6%), New Hampshire (2.9%), South Dakota (2.9%) and Idaho (3%) – were well below the national average.

We know the score.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/blu ... ment-rates

[MDlaxfan76]

October Commercial Chapter 11 Filings Increase 19 Percent
November 05, 2021, 07:38 AM
Filed Under: Bankruptcy
Related: American Bankruptcy Institute, Amy Quackenboss, Bankruptcy

The 294 commercial chapter 11 filings recorded in October 2021 represented a 19 percent increase from the 247 commercial chapter 11 filings in September 2021, according to data provided by Epiq. Overall October 2021 business filings increased 4 percent to 1,775 from September’s business total of 1,705. Total bankruptcy filings increased 2 percent, as the 31,477 filings in October 2021 were up from the 30,915 filings recorded in September. The 29,702 consumer filings in October also represented a 2 percent increase from September’s consumer total of 29,210.

“With the expiration of government relief programs, supply shortages and inflationary price increases, families and businesses are contending with a number of economic challenges,” said ABI Executive Director Amy Quackenboss. “Bankruptcy provides struggling companies and consumers with a reliable lifeline when faced with an uncertain financial future.”

Total U.S. bankruptcy filings in October decreased 22 percent from a year ago, as the 31,477 total filings in October 2021 were down from the 40,218 filings registered in October 2020. The 29,702 consumer filings in October 2021 represented a 21 percent decrease from last October’s consumer total of 37,679. Overall commercial filings in October 2021 totaled 1,775, down 30 percent from the 2,539 filings in October 2020. Commercial chapter 11 filings decreased 47 percent, as the 294 filings in October 2021 fell by almost half from the 550 recorded in October 2020.

The average nationwide per capita bankruptcy filing rate in October was 1.33 (total filings per 1,000 per population), a slight decrease from the filing rate of 1.34 during the first nine months of 2021. Average total filings per day in October 2021 were 1,574, a decrease of 18 percent from the 1,915 total daily filings in October 2020. States with the highest per capita filing rates (total filings per 1,000 population) in October 2021 were:

Alabama (3.14)
Nevada (2.69)
Tennessee (2.45)
Indiana (2.24)
Georgia (2.14)
ABI has partnered with Epiq in order to provide the most current bankruptcy filing data for analysts, researchers and members of the news media. Epiq is a leading provider of managed technology for the global legal profession.

Do I read this correctly that bankruptcies are down 22 percent from a year ago, but, to paraphrase a gator troll, that red states have the highest per capita bankruptcy rates?

[MDlaxfan76]

hmmm, I was wondering how Florida was doing on unemployment rate relative to the rest of the country....and ohh my they only rank 29th...below the median!

https://www.bls.gov/web/laus/laumstrk.htm

How could it be that Vermont has so much better unemployment rate...is it because they have a Dem Gov and Dem legislature and Florida has an R Gov and R legislature?

Nah, that couldn't be right...

Seriously, this whole line of logic is so dumb...

[Farfromgeneva]

October Commercial Chapter 11 Filings Increase 19 Percent
November 05, 2021, 07:38 AM
Filed Under: Bankruptcy
Related: American Bankruptcy Institute, Amy Quackenboss, Bankruptcy

The 294 commercial chapter 11 filings recorded in October 2021 represented a 19 percent increase from the 247 commercial chapter 11 filings in September 2021, according to data provided by Epiq. Overall October 2021 business filings increased 4 percent to 1,775 from September’s business total of 1,705. Total bankruptcy filings increased 2 percent, as the 31,477 filings in October 2021 were up from the 30,915 filings recorded in September. The 29,702 consumer filings in October also represented a 2 percent increase from September’s consumer total of 29,210.

“With the expiration of government relief programs, supply shortages and inflationary price increases, families and businesses are contending with a number of economic challenges,” said ABI Executive Director Amy Quackenboss. “Bankruptcy provides struggling companies and consumers with a reliable lifeline when faced with an uncertain financial future.”

Total U.S. bankruptcy filings in October decreased 22 percent from a year ago, as the 31,477 total filings in October 2021 were down from the 40,218 filings registered in October 2020. The 29,702 consumer filings in October 2021 represented a 21 percent decrease from last October’s consumer total of 37,679. Overall commercial filings in October 2021 totaled 1,775, down 30 percent from the 2,539 filings in October 2020. Commercial chapter 11 filings decreased 47 percent, as the 294 filings in October 2021 fell by almost half from the 550 recorded in October 2020.

The average nationwide per capita bankruptcy filing rate in October was 1.33 (total filings per 1,000 per population), a slight decrease from the filing rate of 1.34 during the first nine months of 2021. Average total filings per day in October 2021 were 1,574, a decrease of 18 percent from the 1,915 total daily filings in October 2020. States with the highest per capita filing rates (total filings per 1,000 population) in October 2021 were:

Alabama (3.14)
Nevada (2.69)
Tennessee (2.45)
Indiana (2.24)
Georgia (2.14)
ABI has partnered with Epiq in order to provide the most current bankruptcy filing data for analysts, researchers and members of the news media. Epiq is a leading provider of managed technology for the global legal profession.

Do I read this correctly that bankruptcies are down 22 percent from a year ago, but, to paraphrase a gator troll, that red states have the highest per capita bankruptcy rates?

Yes but month over month on a national level they were up.

To your question yeah the SE and Gulf region plus Indiana aren’t fading as well. PPP loans have or are ready to be forgiven. But that’s temporary liquidity not supporting bad business models, bad financial structures or poor execution and we’ve had the longest positive business cycle on record.

I’m not suggesting we’re talking but some anecdotes:

- CFO of Buy Now Pay Later, PR backed firm (and former CFO fo Point of Sale FinTech lender) stated he’s seeing a bit of a migration in credit (deterioration). Same guy and I are hatching this plan to buy a charged off book from a group that got upside down on their cap structure which is another signal of easy money ready to fail.

- Seeing fractured from end of Covid relief in the form of mortgage and rent deferrals. On small business and CRE there’s still a lot of pro firms that got pushed out bc of Covid but clear those business plans will fail.

Throw in tapering of bond purchases which were long overdue and you can see the potential issues coming top down. There’s a lot of lender finance, lender on lender. Combine tapering and any unwind in that along with the end of deferrals and other support for small businesses and individuals and own could see a decline. The increase in wages and tight labor market hopefully makes up for some fo that.

[Farfromgeneva]

This is the problem

https://structuredfinance.org/news/fhfa ... chase-cap/

http://www.freddiemac.com/fmac-resource ... tsheet.pdf

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1SL

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPUS

Building and Renting Single-Family Homes Is Top-Performing Investment
Average risk-adjusted annual return for built-to-rent investments is now about 8%

A Lennar Corp. development in San Diego. Traditional home builders such as Lennar have made building rental houses a major component of their business.

By Will Parker
Nov. 9, 2021 5:30 am ET

Single-family homes built to rent are emerging as the hottest corner of the U.S. property market, as investors respond to booming demand from home-seekers priced out of housing for sale.

Rents on homes are rising faster than ever. New household formation is also increasing the demand for rentals, as more young people get their own places.

Meanwhile, historically high housing prices and steep down payment requirements for homes are driving more people to keep renting, even as rents rise, said Green Street analyst John Pawlowski.

“The cost of housing alternatives for single-family renters has exploded,” he said.

The expected risk-adjusted annual return for built-to-rent investments in the private market is now about 8% on average, according to securities advisory Green Street, the highest of 18 property sectors tracked by the firm. The weighted average return for all property sectors was 6.1%, Green Street said.

The growing investor interest in building homes for rent is driving a land grab, especially in the Sunbelt where proponents expect the housing demand sparked in part by the pandemic to continue for years.

Close to 100,000 built-to-rent homes will have started construction this year, according to estimates from Brad Hunter, founder of the Hunter Housing Economics consulting firm. Investors have poured about $30 billion in debt and equity into the sector in 2021, with many billions more in future commitments, Mr. Hunter said.

Traditional home builders like Lennar Corp. and D.R. Horton Inc. have made building rental houses a major component of their business. Giant investment firms like KKR & Co. and Blackstone Group are also piling up cash to add already-built rental houses to their portfolios.

Crow Holdings, a company with a background in apartment construction, is considering testing the sector, starting with two proposed Texas projects near Dallas and Austin.

Home builder Bruce McNeilage’s company Kinloch Partners has built and currently owns more than 100 homes near Nashville, Tenn. But he said he could no longer compete for land in that fast-growing region because he was losing out to more deep-pocketed investors

That has made him look for less crowded opportunities. His firm is among those racing to buy land in Texas towns like Royse City, Waxahachie, and Melissa, which are more than 30 miles from downtown Dallas. He plans to build 500 hundred homes, all for rent, across the Texas exurbs during the next 18 months. But now bigger investors are circling some of the same plots.

“You almost have to find the land before it gets put on the market,” Mr. McNeilage said. “Because the day it gets put on the market, there’s a feeding frenzy.”

Some analysts and builders are starting to believe the breakneck pace of growth in the sector is unsustainable. Investors are stepping over each other in the Sunbelt markets like Phoenix, analysts and builders say, risking a supply glut. Land sellers are raising their asking prices.

“What we’re seeing across the board is that land values are rising,” said Pratik Sharma, managing director of Bridge Tower Group, a single-family rental builder and manager.

Higher land prices could mean that investor returns compress, making built-to-rent less attractive for some investors. The relatively low inventory of available land that is desirable to builders could also mean fewer deals get signed than expected.

But the biggest players in this market are showing no signs of slowing. American Homes 4 Rent, which owns more than 55,000 houses, built 1,600 new ones last year and expects to deliver more than 2,000 in 2021. Tricon Residential, a Sunbelt-focused single-family rental owner, made its debut on the New York Stock Exchange last month and has plans to buy up to 5,000 new construction rental homes directly from home builders.

Write to Will Parker at [email protected]

[a fan]

This is the problem

https://structuredfinance.org/news/fhfa ... chase-cap/

http://www.freddiemac.com/fmac-resource ... tsheet.pdf

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1SL

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPUS

Building and Renting Single-Family Homes Is Top-Performing Investment
Average risk-adjusted annual return for built-to-rent investments is now about 8%

A Lennar Corp. development in San Diego. Traditional home builders such as Lennar have made building rental houses a major component of their business.

By Will Parker
Nov. 9, 2021 5:30 am ET

Single-family homes built to rent are emerging as the hottest corner of the U.S. property market, as investors respond to booming demand from home-seekers priced out of housing for sale.

Rents on homes are rising faster than ever. New household formation is also increasing the demand for rentals, as more young people get their own places.

Meanwhile, historically high housing prices and steep down payment requirements for homes are driving more people to keep renting, even as rents rise, said Green Street analyst John Pawlowski.

“The cost of housing alternatives for single-family renters has exploded,” he said.

The expected risk-adjusted annual return for built-to-rent investments in the private market is now about 8% on average, according to securities advisory Green Street, the highest of 18 property sectors tracked by the firm. The weighted average return for all property sectors was 6.1%, Green Street said.

The growing investor interest in building homes for rent is driving a land grab, especially in the Sunbelt where proponents expect the housing demand sparked in part by the pandemic to continue for years.

Close to 100,000 built-to-rent homes will have started construction this year, according to estimates from Brad Hunter, founder of the Hunter Housing Economics consulting firm. Investors have poured about $30 billion in debt and equity into the sector in 2021, with many billions more in future commitments, Mr. Hunter said.

Traditional home builders like Lennar Corp. and D.R. Horton Inc. have made building rental houses a major component of their business. Giant investment firms like KKR & Co. and Blackstone Group are also piling up cash to add already-built rental houses to their portfolios.

Crow Holdings, a company with a background in apartment construction, is considering testing the sector, starting with two proposed Texas projects near Dallas and Austin.

Home builder Bruce McNeilage’s company Kinloch Partners has built and currently owns more than 100 homes near Nashville, Tenn. But he said he could no longer compete for land in that fast-growing region because he was losing out to more deep-pocketed investors

That has made him look for less crowded opportunities. His firm is among those racing to buy land in Texas towns like Royse City, Waxahachie, and Melissa, which are more than 30 miles from downtown Dallas. He plans to build 500 hundred homes, all for rent, across the Texas exurbs during the next 18 months. But now bigger investors are circling some of the same plots.

“You almost have to find the land before it gets put on the market,” Mr. McNeilage said. “Because the day it gets put on the market, there’s a feeding frenzy.”

Some analysts and builders are starting to believe the breakneck pace of growth in the sector is unsustainable. Investors are stepping over each other in the Sunbelt markets like Phoenix, analysts and builders say, risking a supply glut. Land sellers are raising their asking prices.

“What we’re seeing across the board is that land values are rising,” said Pratik Sharma, managing director of Bridge Tower Group, a single-family rental builder and manager.

Higher land prices could mean that investor returns compress, making built-to-rent less attractive for some investors. The relatively low inventory of available land that is desirable to builders could also mean fewer deals get signed than expected.

But the biggest players in this market are showing no signs of slowing. American Homes 4 Rent, which owns more than 55,000 houses, built 1,600 new ones last year and expects to deliver more than 2,000 in 2021. Tricon Residential, a Sunbelt-focused single-family rental owner, made its debut on the New York Stock Exchange last month and has plans to buy up to 5,000 new construction rental homes directly from home builders.

Write to Will Parker at [email protected]

Translation: learn to code, or you’re F’ed

[Farfromgeneva]

Correlation could be the case but check the last two links and if they’re not scaled the way I set them scale it to 1yr and 10yrs (click those scale numbers). I don’t believe it’s a coincidence

[kramerica.inc]

Inflation is making voters unhappy with the economy – Democrats hope their infrastructure and social bills change that

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/09/inflati ... lainternal

[Peter Brown]

Inflation is making voters unhappy with the economy – Democrats hope their infrastructure and social bills change that

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/09/inflati ... lainternal

BREAKING: U.S. inflation was up 6.2% in October over a year ago. That’s the highest inflation in 31 years.

Inflation was up 0.9% in Oct. alone, a much higher increase than 0.4% in Sept. and 0.3% in August.

Prices are rising for food, energy, shelter, used cars and new cars.

Brandon gonna be jimmy carter soon. Better be long that Bitcoin. When’s the next election? Getting closer to the DNC’s desired Venezuelan ruin!!! Chart below from one month ago…now we are at 5.8% annually. LGB!

2582459B-BC98-4BEB-A347-3062D3AEA8B4.png (23.94 KiB) Viewed 1124 times

[NattyBohChamps04]

An interesting analysis on inflation. Strangely enough it didn't start when Biden was elected like some people claim , but he does get to clean it up. Seems doubtful it can be cleaned up in just a few years though.

https://www.bridgewater.com/its-mostly- ... everywhere

Anyone ready for more massive deficit spending once R's get back into office?

My investments are booming, well above inflation, but the Trump people aren't echoing those numbers anymore for some reason... almost like the economy is slightly more complex than they think.

[youthathletics]

An interesting analysis on inflation. Strangely enough it didn't start when Biden was elected like some people claim , but he does get to clean it up. Seems doubtful it can be cleaned up in just a few years though.

https://www.bridgewater.com/its-mostly- ... everywhere

Anyone ready for more massive deficit spending once R's get back into office?

My investments are booming, well above inflation, but the Trump people aren't echoing those numbers anymore for some reason... almost like the economy is slightly more complex than they think.

Yea...because there is no penalty to withdraw cash from investments, for immediate need now.

[NattyBohChamps04]

Yea...because there is no penalty to withdraw cash from investments, for immediate need now.

Huh, so why was everyone foaming at the mouth over the stock market and housing numbers when Trump was in office?

With proper planning, the penalty is a lot less than earning money other ways...

[Farfromgeneva]

Yea...because there is no penalty to withdraw cash from investments, for immediate need now.

Huh, so why was everyone foaming at the mouth over the stock market and housing numbers when Trump was in office?

With proper planning, the penalty is a lot less than earning money other ways...

This is the “liquidity preference” or premia. It’s zero now. It was zero before the financial crisis which is why counterparty risk (AIG insuring mortgage bonds) was grossly underpriced. That’s my concern. A massive liquidity seizure created by zero interest rate policy that’s gone on for more than a decade (see taper tantrum in June 2013 and how quickly the fed pulled Federal Funds back to zero a couple of years back, it’s no longer a tool for them).

The reason the “wealth gap” is growing is because there’s an inherent “liquidity premium” that exists up to a point for most people (think about the various forms of consumption, some necessary to survive some not so much) but not once you hit a level which is why rich folks borrow against their stock, their private holdings and their life insurance policies (while life ain’t cheap today) to keep their assets earning. Regular people can’t do that but that’s a function of tons of liquidity in the world combined with no cost of money.

Then you say a market correction or withdrawal of liquidity will solve that issue but just keep the axiom in mind that “s%*t rolls downhill”.

The housing piece of you’re bridgewater er analysis, which overall was good but remember these guys all talk their own book in these pieces and statements. But something is off in the whole housing inventories are low while rents are high and increasing while we have this massive and growing “SFR” (single family rental) industry exploding that only existed coming out of the crisis. Freddie Mac will finance mortgage servicing rights (MSRs) and Fan/Fred even financed bulk house owners. It goes back to the actions executed in the financial crisis but this whole industry was created partly by TALF/TAGP etc and is being propped up with government money. And what happens when these owners need liquidity and dump 100,000 homes on the market? The areas exposed are the faster growing, “high beta” communities. Even more exacerbated in the deep suburb/exurbs where the “workforce community” lives these days. Won’t hurt my nice 110yr old in town good school district home with pocket doors between the living and dining room and coals burning fireplaces.

[jhu72]

Blue states including Nevada (7.7%), New York (7.6%), New Mexico (7.6%), California (7.6%) and New Jersey (7.3%) had substantially higher unemployment rates than the national average of 5.4% in July, the data shows. By comparison, red states – such as Nebraska (2.3%), Utah (2.6%), New Hampshire (2.9%), South Dakota (2.9%) and Idaho (3%) – were well below the national average.

We know the score.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/blu ... ment-rates

... more nonsense. New Hampshire is by no stretch of the imagination a RED STATE. They voted for the democrat in the presidential election the last 5 elections!! 7 of the last 8 went to democrats.

[Peter Brown]

Blue states including Nevada (7.7%), New York (7.6%), New Mexico (7.6%), California (7.6%) and New Jersey (7.3%) had substantially higher unemployment rates than the national average of 5.4% in July, the data shows. By comparison, red states – such as Nebraska (2.3%), Utah (2.6%), New Hampshire (2.9%), South Dakota (2.9%) and Idaho (3%) – were well below the national average.

We know the score.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/blu ... ment-rates

... more nonsense. New Hampshire is by no stretch of the imagination a RED STATE. They voted for the democrat in the presidential election the last 5 elections!! 7 of the last 8 went to democrats.

Governor Sununu says ‘live free or die’.

[Peter Brown]

Yea...because there is no penalty to withdraw cash from investments, for immediate need now.

Huh, so why was everyone foaming at the mouth over the stock market and housing numbers when Trump was in office?

With proper planning, the penalty is a lot less than earning money other ways...

There's a reason Americans are noticing higher grocery bills. Pretty much every major protein is up sharply, along with other key items.

Steaks 24% (y/y)
Bacon 20%
Pork chops 16%
Eggs 12%
Fish 11%
Chicken 9%
Milk 6%
Coffee 6%
Food at home 5.4%
Flour 5%

[a fan]

Yea...because there is no penalty to withdraw cash from investments, for immediate need now.

Huh, so why was everyone foaming at the mouth over the stock market and housing numbers when Trump was in office?

With proper planning, the penalty is a lot less than earning money other ways...

There's a reason Americans are noticing higher grocery bills. Pretty much every major protein is up sharply, along with other key items.

Steaks 24% (y/y)
Bacon 20%
Pork chops 16%
Eggs 12%
Fish 11%
Chicken 9%
Milk 6%
Coffee 6%
Food at home 5.4%
Flour 5%

Boy, i bet that's making things rough for Trump's forgotten voters, eh, Pete?

The above numbers are fake news, Pete. There's NO WAY things are that expensive after 4 years of brilliant tweets that stuck it to the libs . Tweets fix everything.

[youthathletics]

Yea...because there is no penalty to withdraw cash from investments, for immediate need now.

Huh, so why was everyone foaming at the mouth over the stock market and housing numbers when Trump was in office?

With proper planning, the penalty is a lot less than earning money other ways...

Because everyone was working, there was no inflation, and fuel was not twice the price. Discretionary income was more plentiful with people willing to spend it.