The Nation's Financial Condition

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a fan
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Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by a fan »

Farfromgeneva wrote: Mon Sep 27, 2021 11:52 pm We lose control of monetary policy. We only get away with it because the entire world has sterlized their own currencies and we still smell like rosier s**t than everyone else.

Look up Russia 1998 Ruble devaluation. Printing money is the same as changing our exchange rate with the world.
Ok, so I DO understand it.

So why didn't we fall apart----rampant, instant inflation----etc. when we did QE?? Four rounds of QE, right? We simply printed money, right? Trillions, and handed it to banks, right? And nothing happened.

What am I missing?
Farfromgeneva
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Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by Farfromgeneva »

a fan wrote: Tue Sep 28, 2021 12:21 am
Farfromgeneva wrote: Mon Sep 27, 2021 11:52 pm We lose control of monetary policy. We only get away with it because the entire world has sterlized their own currencies and we still smell like rosier s**t than everyone else.

Look up Russia 1998 Ruble devaluation. Printing money is the same as changing our exchange rate with the world.
Ok, so I DO understand it.

So why didn't we fall apart----rampant, instant inflation----etc. when we did QE?? Four rounds of QE, right? We simply printed money, right? Trillions, and handed it to banks, right? And nothing happened.

What am I missing?
Second part of first sentence of mine.

Keep in mind we've done it to fight deflationary pressures. The point was to inflate and provide comfort for folks to move out the "risk curve" - first from that hole in ground we dug and threw our money down into US govt bonds and back into banks (Tarp), then into AAA corporate and GSE/agency debt, then into public (rated and cusip'ed) high grade corporate and asset secured debt (think Talf/Tagp), then into blue chip stocks like GE and Ford, then into low grade public debt and equities, then into illiquid assets like real estate and other hard tangible assets, then into esoteric and financial assets, then into VC and other various curvelinear "yo's" and here we are 12yrs later. Except we should've stopped a long while back and hence you have this intense and increasing wealth divergence between the wealthiest and everyone else. And it's because we jacked up asset values but ignored the income side of the equation. The fed has acknowledged here and there they felt they had to do a lot because of the abrogation of fiscal responsibility by congress for a while. Until Drumf and his motley crew did that too on top of everything else.

(https://continuousdelivery.com/2013/01/ ... hitecture/) - will drop piece below, it's pretty good

And anyone who expects immediate reactions on macro policy should be kicked in the balls - TM, FarFrom

On Antifragility in Systems and Organizational Architecture
Published 09 January 2013
In his new book, Antifragile, Nassim Taleb discusses the behaviour of complex systems and distinguishes three kinds: those that are fragile, those that are robust or resilient, and those that are antifragile. These types of systems differ in how they respond to volatility: “The fragile wants tranquility, the antifragile grows from disorder, and the robust doesn’t care too much.” (p20) Taleb argues that we want to create systems that are antifragile - that are designed to take advantage of volatility. I think this concept is incredibly powerful when applied to systems and organizational architecture.


Why Continuous Delivery Works
Taleb shows why the traditional approach of operations - making change hard, since change is risky - is flawed: “the problem with artificially suppressed volatility is not just that the system tends to become extremely fragile; it is that, at the same time, it exhibits no visible risks... These artificially constrained systems become prone to Black Swans. Such environments eventually experience massive blowups... catching everyone off guard and undoing years of stability or, in almost all cases, ending up far worse than they were in their initial volatile state” (p105)1.

This a great explanation of how many attempts to manage risk actually result in risk management theatre - giving the appearance of effective risk management while actually making the system (and the organization) extremely fragile to unexpected events. It also explains why continuous delivery works. The most important heuristic we describe in the book is “if it hurts, do it more often, and bring the pain forward.” The effect of following this principle is to exert a constant stress on your delivery and deployment process to reduce its fragility so that releasing becomes a boring, low-risk activity.

Antifragile Systems
Another of Taleb’s key claims is that it is impossible to predict “Black Swan” events: “you cannot say with any reliability that a certain remote event or shock is more likely than another... but you can state with a lot more confidence that an object or a structure is more fragile than another should a certain event happen.” (p8). Thus we need “to switch the blame from the inability to see an event coming... to the failure to understand (anti)fragility, namely, ‘why did we build something so fragile to these types of events?’” (p136).

Unlike risk, fragility is actually measurable. How do we measure the fragility of the systems we build? We try to break them, using techniques such as game days and systems like chaos monkey. The systematic application of stress to your systems is essential - not just to ensure your systems are antifragile, but to develop the muscles of the people who create and maintain them through constant practice. After all, it’s the combination of the system and the people who build and run it that has the quality of antifragility.

In this context, an important quality of legacy systems is their fragility. Legacy systems that aren’t touched for a long time will turn into fragile “works of art”: changing them is considered risky, the number of people who understand the system decreases with time, and their knowledge atrophies from lack of exercise.

How do we create antifragile systems? Apply stress to them continuously so we are forced to simplify, homogenise, and automate.

Antifragile Organizations
We can measure the fragility of an organization by how long it takes before it liquidates its assets. Deloitte’s Shift Index shows that the average life expectancy of a Fortune 500 company has declined from around 75 years half a century ago to less than 15 years today.

Start-ups are notoriously fragile. But the ones that survive and grow turn into something potentially more dangerous - robust organizations. The problem with robust organizations is that they resist change. They aren’t quickly killed by changes to their environment, but they don’t adapt to them either - they die slowly. We see this effect all the time - changing the culture of an established organization is incredibly hard.

Antifragile organizations are those that have a culture that enables them to learn fast from their environment and adapt to it so they can take advantage of volatility. Here are some characteristics of antifragile organizations:

Systems thinking. Everybody in the organization knows the goals of the organization and makes sure their work is directly contributing towards these goals.
Theory Y Management. Management needs to assume employees are self-motivated and will be able to learn how to solve problems themselves. Organizations need to make sure they hire antifragile people who will thrive in this environment. As Daniel Pink’s Drive points out, giving your employees autonomy, purpose, and the opportunity to learn and master new skills is what stops them from quitting, thus increasing the antifragility of your organization.
Continuous experimentation. As described in Toyota Kata, good management knows that the best solutions come from the workers. They create an environment in which practitioners are able to run experiments to learn as rapidly as possible. The feedback loops in command and control organizations are too slow for them to adapt effectively.
Disruptive product development. Antifragile organizations aren’t content with stress generated by their environment. Like humans exercising, they also try and disrupt themselves (the organizational equivalent of a game day). For example, Amazon cannibalized its own business, creating the Amazon Marketplace and the Kindle. Apple is cannibalizing its Mac business with the iPad. Fragile organizations resist disrupting their own product lines, as Toshiba did at first with flash memory. If you do a good job at this you never need to worry about the competition - you’ll always beat them to it.
Fragility and Agility
As Taleb points out, “antifragility is desirable in general, but not always, as there are cases in which antifragility will be costly, extremely so. Further, it is hard to consider robustness as always desirable---to quote Nietzsche, one can die from being immortal.” (p22) Of course working out where on the spectrum you want your systems and your organization to lie is an art, and the great artists are those that know how to build systems, organizations, and products simply, quickly and cheaply so that they are antifragile with respect to our biggest enemy: time. How do they do that? Using the same heuristics described in “antifragile organizations”, above, which closely mirror the Three Ways of Devops.

As I read Antifragile, it reminded me of something I read a number of years ago: Kent Beck and Cynthia Andres’ Extreme Programming Explained. The subtitle? Embrace Change. It strikes me that the concept of antifragile is what we were aiming for with agile the whole time: building systems (including human systems - organizations) that benefit from volatility.
Last edited by Farfromgeneva on Tue Sep 28, 2021 12:49 am, edited 2 times in total.
Now I love those cowboys, I love their gold
Love my uncle, God rest his soul
Taught me good, Lord, taught me all I know
Taught me so well, that I grabbed that gold
I left his dead ass there by the side of the road, yeah
a fan
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Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by a fan »

Farfromgeneva wrote: Tue Sep 28, 2021 12:39 am Second part of first sentence of mine.
Right----so has that changed? If the answer is no......why not sell the debt to ourselves, and retire it?
Farfromgeneva
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Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by Farfromgeneva »

a fan wrote: Tue Sep 28, 2021 12:41 am
Farfromgeneva wrote: Tue Sep 28, 2021 12:39 am Second part of first sentence of mine.
Right----so has that changed? If the answer is no......why not sell the debt to ourselves, and retire it?
There has to be a corresponding transfer on the other side of the ledger - basic accounting, credits and debits.

A - L = OE

But I completely don't understand what your saying. Keep doing something because we are currently getting away with it? I've never even in a million years in my many karmic lives would've wanted that in any capacity. That's how winners become losers. In all of history. Over and over and over again in every aspect of life. Setting yourself up for failure by presuming the actions of others. Psychologist and psychiatry as a profession would beat the ish out of you for suggesting that.
Now I love those cowboys, I love their gold
Love my uncle, God rest his soul
Taught me good, Lord, taught me all I know
Taught me so well, that I grabbed that gold
I left his dead ass there by the side of the road, yeah
Farfromgeneva
Posts: 23816
Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2019 10:53 am

Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by Farfromgeneva »

Here's how crazy stuff is getting.

-I grabbed some low rent Freddie Mac Seller Servicer (multifamily finance division of the agency) underwriting work from a special servicer last week. You're allowed under the GSE programs to borrow more once 12mo passes and you perform. EVERY SINGLE "supplemental second lien" loan I've looked at has cashed out all of the original equity in the deals to the borrowers, often in great excess of cost/basis. (and by the way it's gross how the property descriptions all discuss the pitch of the roofs - an old way to redline, flat roofs equal ghetto hood housing, see The Jungle in Training Day)

-Have term sheets to close on a $100MM placement of a syndicated warehouse facility for a insurance premium finance lender/asset mgr. Prob like Thanksgiving time give or take and final club on deal TBD. The borrower, client of mine, raised $75MM and this facility will be uneconomic but strategic to build data on loss and default history until they can go securitize these loan receivables in bond form which they expect to cut their cost od debt in half and go from 6:1 leverage to 19:1, they did it with a similar type of structure but a little different multiple times in the past three years.

-Have a small asset manager I'm starting to help finance the purchase of Trust Preferred securities which blew up the banking system in the crisis (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... p-by-trups) but made a Cuse backup goalie named Brett Jefferson the proud owner of a cayman island and non us taxpayer (Hildene is his shop) buying a bunch of Trups in one of the wildest and degenerate privately owned banks in Texas at a blended 70-75 cents on the dollar and then getting a lender to give him 75% leverage on his purchase to get to a 8-10% IRR with massive tail risk and LGD of 100% basically.

-2 merger DDs coming up, one a Credit Union on CU deal and one CU on Bank. Meanwhile a friend who's at a larger CU has been charged with looking at various loan portfolios to purchase, which they have no experience in, because they can't deploy capital nearly effectively enough.

-Engaged by a Cayman bank to acquire an OCC charter or partner with one.

I can go on. And I'm a nobody. Imagine what real players are getting into.
Now I love those cowboys, I love their gold
Love my uncle, God rest his soul
Taught me good, Lord, taught me all I know
Taught me so well, that I grabbed that gold
I left his dead ass there by the side of the road, yeah
a fan
Posts: 19546
Joined: Mon Aug 06, 2018 9:05 pm

Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by a fan »

Farfromgeneva wrote: Tue Sep 28, 2021 12:58 am But I completely don't understand what your saying. Keep doing something because we are currently getting away with it? I've never even in a million years in my many karmic lives would've wanted that in any capacity. That's how winners become losers. In all of history. Over and over and over again in every aspect of life. Setting yourself up for failure by presuming the actions of others. Psychologist and psychiatry as a profession would beat the ish out of you for suggesting that.
:lol: Not at all....if I had my way? We'd be taxed fairly to cover what we were spending. Balanced budget, no free rides.

I'm simply asking: how the F did we get away with FOUR rounds of QE....and nothing happened? I understand your explanation....but only sort of....there weren't ANY consequences for QE. That is WEIRD, my man. ;)
a fan
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Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by a fan »

Farfromgeneva wrote: Tue Sep 28, 2021 1:14 am Here's how crazy stuff is getting.

-I grabbed some low rent Freddie Mac Seller Servicer (multifamily finance division of the agency) underwriting work from a special servicer last week. You're allowed under the GSE programs to borrow more once 12mo passes and you perform. EVERY SINGLE "supplemental second lien" loan I've looked at has cashed out all of the original equity in the deals to the borrowers, often in great excess of cost/basis. (and by the way it's gross how the property descriptions all discuss the pitch of the roofs - an old way to redline, flat roofs equal ghetto hood housing, see The Jungle in Training Day)

-Have term sheets to close on a $100MM placement of a syndicated warehouse facility for a insurance premium finance lender/asset mgr. Prob like Thanksgiving time give or take and final club on deal TBD. The borrower, client of mine, raised $75MM and this facility will be uneconomic but strategic to build data on loss and default history until they can go securitize these loan receivables in bond form which they expect to cut their cost od debt in half and go from 6:1 leverage to 19:1, they did it with a similar type of structure but a little different multiple times in the past three years.

-Have a small asset manager I'm starting to help finance the purchase of Trust Preferred securities which blew up the banking system in the crisis (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... p-by-trups) but made a Cuse backup goalie named Brett Jefferson the proud owner of a cayman island and non us taxpayer (Hildene is his shop) buying a bunch of Trups in one of the wildest and degenerate privately owned banks in Texas at a blended 70-75 cents on the dollar and then getting a lender to give him 75% leverage on his purchase to get to a 8-10% IRR with massive tail risk and LGD of 100% basically.

-2 merger DDs coming up, one a Credit Union on CU deal and one CU on Bank. Meanwhile a friend who's at a larger CU has been charged with looking at various loan portfolios to purchase, which they have no experience in, because they can't deploy capital nearly effectively enough.

-Engaged by a Cayman bank to acquire an OCC charter or partner with one.

I can go on. And I'm a nobody. Imagine what real players are getting into.
I'm a nobody on the other end, my friend. Our loan officer, now a VP at our State bank told us "you're the only client I have that I would actually invest in". What he meant is that we made simple, fundamental business decisions, and didn't take over leveraged, wild risks because we're too weak to go a few years without fast cars and homes we can't afford.

The year my brother graduated from Northwestern Econ, he was flown out to interviews at Goldman, Amex, and a few other houses I can't remember. He turned it down to head to Stanford.

His Econ classmates and fraternity brothers went on to be muckity mucks at places like UBS. One of them had his own firm that went belly up in 08. The others are all retired.

Instead of this? My poor brother is stuck, slumming with me and our dinky company. Oh well. It's been quite a ride.....but we don't play all those crazy games that others do. Protect your margin....and be happy if you sell less doing it.
Farfromgeneva
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Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2019 10:53 am

Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by Farfromgeneva »

a fan wrote: Tue Sep 28, 2021 1:38 am
Farfromgeneva wrote: Tue Sep 28, 2021 12:58 am But I completely don't understand what your saying. Keep doing something because we are currently getting away with it? I've never even in a million years in my many karmic lives would've wanted that in any capacity. That's how winners become losers. In all of history. Over and over and over again in every aspect of life. Setting yourself up for failure by presuming the actions of others. Psychologist and psychiatry as a profession would beat the ish out of you for suggesting that.
:lol: Not at all....if I had my way? We'd be taxed fairly to cover what we were spending. Balanced budget, no free rides.

I'm simply asking: how the F did we get away with FOUR rounds of QE....and nothing happened? I understand your explanation....but only sort of....there weren't ANY consequences for QE. That is WEIRD, my man. ;)
Agree in general on first part. Over the long run. There are times to lever up and times to deleverage but it should net out over, say 10-25yrs.

It's long but read the bit on antifragile. I don't think this story is over and am terrified of the outcome, just don't hide under the covers because I figure everyone is going to get it, so just keep sticking and moving, so to speak. I view this whole populist idiocy, on both sides, as an extension of the financial crisis. We never paid the price for the excesss of the 2000s IMO given the "recovery" and one day Rome is going to burn. Not surprised that everyone is made, no one trust anyone with power or money. For all of us, the conclusion is a function of the time frame you apply. I won't call the game of "kick the can" until the can is so banged up and far down the road that it wont move anymore.

I'm sure the woody guthrie dustbowl, ledbelly where did you sleep last night world with the aliens on radio and world war 2 was pretty weird to live through as well. That was 10-15yrs after the crash in 1927...
Now I love those cowboys, I love their gold
Love my uncle, God rest his soul
Taught me good, Lord, taught me all I know
Taught me so well, that I grabbed that gold
I left his dead ass there by the side of the road, yeah
Farfromgeneva
Posts: 23816
Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2019 10:53 am

Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by Farfromgeneva »

a fan wrote: Tue Sep 28, 2021 1:49 am
Farfromgeneva wrote: Tue Sep 28, 2021 1:14 am Here's how crazy stuff is getting.

-I grabbed some low rent Freddie Mac Seller Servicer (multifamily finance division of the agency) underwriting work from a special servicer last week. You're allowed under the GSE programs to borrow more once 12mo passes and you perform. EVERY SINGLE "supplemental second lien" loan I've looked at has cashed out all of the original equity in the deals to the borrowers, often in great excess of cost/basis. (and by the way it's gross how the property descriptions all discuss the pitch of the roofs - an old way to redline, flat roofs equal ghetto hood housing, see The Jungle in Training Day)

-Have term sheets to close on a $100MM placement of a syndicated warehouse facility for a insurance premium finance lender/asset mgr. Prob like Thanksgiving time give or take and final club on deal TBD. The borrower, client of mine, raised $75MM and this facility will be uneconomic but strategic to build data on loss and default history until they can go securitize these loan receivables in bond form which they expect to cut their cost od debt in half and go from 6:1 leverage to 19:1, they did it with a similar type of structure but a little different multiple times in the past three years.

-Have a small asset manager I'm starting to help finance the purchase of Trust Preferred securities which blew up the banking system in the crisis (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... p-by-trups) but made a Cuse backup goalie named Brett Jefferson the proud owner of a cayman island and non us taxpayer (Hildene is his shop) buying a bunch of Trups in one of the wildest and degenerate privately owned banks in Texas at a blended 70-75 cents on the dollar and then getting a lender to give him 75% leverage on his purchase to get to a 8-10% IRR with massive tail risk and LGD of 100% basically.

-2 merger DDs coming up, one a Credit Union on CU deal and one CU on Bank. Meanwhile a friend who's at a larger CU has been charged with looking at various loan portfolios to purchase, which they have no experience in, because they can't deploy capital nearly effectively enough.

-Engaged by a Cayman bank to acquire an OCC charter or partner with one.

I can go on. And I'm a nobody. Imagine what real players are getting into.
I'm a nobody on the other end, my friend. Our loan officer, now a VP at our State bank told us "you're the only client I have that I would actually invest in". What he meant is that we made simple, fundamental business decisions, and didn't take over leveraged, wild risks because we're too weak to go a few years without fast cars and homes we can't afford.

The year my brother graduated from Northwestern Econ, he was flown out to interviews at Goldman, Amex, and a few other houses I can't remember. He turned it down to head to Stanford.

His Econ classmates and fraternity brothers went on to be muckity mucks at places like UBS. One of them had his own firm that went belly up in 08. The others are all retired.

Instead of this? My poor brother is stuck, slumming with me and our dinky company. Oh well. It's been quite a ride.....but we don't play all those crazy games that others do. Protect your margin....and be happy if you sell less doing it.
I'm just happy to be taking my son on his first camping trip this weekend w cub scouts. Postponed from two weekends ago, I'm as hyped as he is. With where I've been the last year it's not a slam dunk that I'd be in a good place, or even above ground, right now. Not taking anything for granted anymore.
Now I love those cowboys, I love their gold
Love my uncle, God rest his soul
Taught me good, Lord, taught me all I know
Taught me so well, that I grabbed that gold
I left his dead ass there by the side of the road, yeah
seacoaster
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Joined: Thu Aug 02, 2018 4:36 pm

Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by seacoaster »

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics ... ce=twitter

"The president’s spending package is often described in news reports as costing $3.5 trillion over 10 years. But the president and his aides have argued that this is misguided because Democrats are proposing to fund this spending with tax hikes on the wealthy, tougher tax enforcement and other revenue raisers. Thus, while the gross cost might be $3.5 trillion, the net cost to the Treasury would be zero.

That’s the theory. But it’s worth recalling that this legislative package has evolved since Biden first claimed in the spring that his spending plans would not “add a single penny to our deficit.” One part of that package has already been pegged as a deficit-raiser, and in a bit of sleight of hand, the White House is now focused on the second part.

Let’s dig under the hood and figure out what’s going on here.

The Facts

Originally Biden’s “Build Back Better” spending plan had two components — a $2.25 trillion 10-year infrastructure plan and a $1.8 trillion American Families Plan, which consisted mostly of transfer payments that would keep going, year after year, such as free prekindergarten programs, free attendance at two-year community colleges and child-care support.

Together, the two plans would have added $1 trillion to the federal budget deficit over 10 years. But over 15 years, White House officials argued, the plans would be in balance, as the tax increases used to fund the infrastructure spending would keep bringing in revenue long after the money was appropriated.

Budget analysts were divided on whether the president’s math added up. The Penn-Wharton Budget Model, one of the most skeptical, calculated that Biden’s two proposals would spend $5.2 trillion and only raise $3.4 trillion in the first 10 years, putting him far short of his 15-year goal.

But since then, everything has changed through legislative sausage-making.

The infrastructure plan, which Biden wanted to pass on a bipartisan basis, shrunk to about $550 billion in new spending over 10 years and then was passed in the Senate with no tax increases — the price of winning GOP support.

The Congressional Budget Office estimated the plan would add $256 billion to the federal budget deficit over 10 years, but for complicated reasons that is a lowball figure. Marc Goldwein, senior vice president at the Committee for a Responsible Budget, says that buried in the CBO report is information that indicates the infrastructure bill would add $398 billion to the deficit.

It's also no longer funded by tax increases that would keep going; a big chunk of the funding comes from unused funds taken from a previous coronavirus bill.

Meanwhile, the other part of the plan is moving on a parliamentary track known as reconciliation. That means it can pass with a simple majority in the Senate because it is not subject to a filibuster. So no Republicans votes are needed. But it’s grown from $1.8 trillion to $3.5 trillion as climate-change elements from the original infrastructure bill and other Democratic wish-list items have been added.

Under the reconciliation instructions passed by the Senate, that spending will be offset with revenue raisers — such as tax increases on the wealthy and corporations — so the impact on the deficit will be as low as zero or as high as $1.75 trillion over 10 years.

A White House official told The Fact Checker that Biden is committed to making sure the final impact is zero, which is why he has been repeating this line in recent days. “It’s important to pass the bill with zero deficits,” the official said.

But it’s not so simple. Lawmakers are certain to play all sorts of budget games to achieve that mythical zero within the 10-year budget framework. One possible trick: terminating a new spending program early, before the 10 years is completed. That would “save” money — and require a future Congress to decide whether to continue a possibly popular benefit.

When passing tax cuts under reconciliation, such as President George W. Bush’s 2001 tax cuts and President Donald Trump’s 2017 tax cuts, Republicans made constant use of this tactic to lower the calculated deficit impact of the debt-financed tax cuts. The scorekeepers said the Trump tax bill inflated the deficit by $2 trillion over 10 years, but only because tax cuts for individuals — so touted by the GOP — were set to expire after 2025. That maneuver reduced the 10-year deficit forecast by about $500 billion. (Biden hopes to roll back the tax cuts for wealthier Americans to help pay for his spending plans but in theory they are due to disappear in four years anyway.)

Moody’s Analytics, in a July report, said the reconciliation bill would add about $600 billion to the deficits over 10 years but would be “more-or-less paid for” when the positive economic effects are calculated.

“On paper the plan is largely paid for and does not add meaningfully to the nation’s deficits and debt,” said the report by Mark Zandi and Bernard Yaros. “But there is a risk that spending and tax credits in the plan that are slated to ultimately expire will not — the politics of ending any government program are vexed. Heightened tax enforcement may also not raise as much additional revenue as anticipated as wealthy taxpayers will work to avoid paying more. The result would be larger federal budget deficits and debt.”

There’s a separate argument about whether increased spending should be paid for with spending cuts rather than tax increases. But under conventions of budgeting in Washington, a revenue increase can offset a spending increase.

Goldwein said he viewed Biden’s language as making a commitment that the reconciliation bill would not increase the deficit. “We will have to see whether he keeps that commitment,” he said, but he said the increased deficits from the infrastructure bill is “not a good start.”

The Pinocchio Test

This is a noteworthy pledge for the president to make. In 2017, Republicans had initially talked about a deficit-neutral tax cut but then quickly gave up.

Yet even if the reconciliation bill lands with a calculated deficit impact of zero, the president will still be in a deficit hole because of the bipartisan infrastructure bill. Originally the two bills were supposed to work in tandem, but now the White House claims only the reconciliation bill represents the president’s “Build Back Better” plan. That wasn’t the story in the spring.

On top of that, given our long experience in writing about the federal budget, we’re pretty certain a deficit score of zero would only be accomplished with some dubious gimmicks that help disguise the true cost of Biden’s agenda.

We’ll keep an eye on the final outcome, but for Americans not steeped in budget arcana, the president’s claim is misleading. For now, Biden earns Two Pinocchios — a number that could grow higher."
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MDlaxfan76
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Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by MDlaxfan76 »

I'm fine with some deficit costs, especially in all the various hard asset investments.
There's a ton of real equity built with significant ROI for America as a whole.

It's less clear how the ROI to America will be for the other spending, but I'll keep my fingers crossed. For now. If the programs prove to not be driving increases in productivity, they'll have simply been transfer payments, something I'm far less enthusiastic about.

Note that the most popular part of the bill, in aggregate across the political spectrum, is actually the increase in taxes on very wealthy and on corporations...the concentration of wealth is very unpopular.
Farfromgeneva
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Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by Farfromgeneva »

Is just like our fiscal and monetary houses to work together RF or once in my adult lifetime.
Now I love those cowboys, I love their gold
Love my uncle, God rest his soul
Taught me good, Lord, taught me all I know
Taught me so well, that I grabbed that gold
I left his dead ass there by the side of the road, yeah
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MDlaxfan76
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Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by MDlaxfan76 »

The "coin" is getting a bit of mainstream attention: https://www.cnn.com/2021/09/28/opinions ... index.html
Farfromgeneva
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Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by Farfromgeneva »

MDlaxfan76 wrote: Wed Sep 29, 2021 8:59 am The "coin" is getting a bit of mainstream attention: https://www.cnn.com/2021/09/28/opinions ... index.html
So are SPACS from meme investors who love AMC, Hertz and other dogs.

In the meantime the food desserts are getting more expensive

Dollar Tree to Sell More Items Above $1 as Costs Rise
Discount chain expanding earlier tests to boost prices, citing higher wage and freight costs

Dollar Tree plans to sell products at $1.25 and $1.50 or other prices slightly above $1 in some of its stores.
PHOTO: ERIN SCOTT/REUTERS
By Sarah Nassauer
Updated Sept. 29, 2021 12:22 pm ET

The buck has stopped at Dollar Tree Inc.

The retailer, which sells nearly everything for a dollar in its namesake chain, plans to add more products at slightly higher prices, highlighting the pressure on companies to offset cost increases for a range of goods.

Dollar Tree said it would start selling products at $1.25 and $1.50 or other prices slightly above $1 in some of its stores, expanding current tests selling items at higher price points as supply-chain snarls, a tight labor market and inflation push costs higher.

The discounter has experimented with selling items for $3 and $5 since 2019 in a shelf section labeled Dollar Tree Plus. Those tests continue in a few hundred of its roughly 7,900 Dollar Tree stores.

The addition of more above-$1 items is a response to rising costs and positive consumer feedback on tests so far, Michael Witynski, chief executive of Dollar Tree, said in an interview. With the above-$1 price point, the company can offer new products such as more frozen meat or seasonal items, which could encourage shoppers to spend more per trip, he said.

“We recognize the need to make adjustments in the current economic environment,” Mr. Witynski said, including “the pressure all of us are seeing on wages, freight and on our suppliers and cost increases.”

All stores with Dollar Tree Plus sections will get products at the above-$1 price points, as well as some legacy stores without the special section, said a company spokesman. He said over 100 legacy stores will carry the products.

While Dollar Tree is in an unusual position because of its pricing model, it is navigating a nearly universal problem for businesses around the world.

Makers of products from diapers to cars face higher costs for materials, transportation and workers. In many cases, manufactures and retailers are raising prices, but some are hesitating to pass along these costs to shoppers. Some are betting inflation is a passing challenge or that consumers lack the appetite to absorb price increases. Many companies are working to negotiate with their suppliers further to shoulder more of the financial burden.

In recent months, supply-chain slowdowns have fueled a larger and longer-lasting surge in inflation than government officials anticipated, adding to pressure on holdouts to raise consumer prices.

For years some investors have clamored for Dollar Tree to boost profits by untethering itself from the $1 price point established when the company was founded in 1986. Many former and current executives see it as sacrosanct, a key reason shoppers gravitate to the store and the linchpin of a simplified operating model that drives profits.

In 2019, hedge fund Starboard Value LP dropped a planned proxy fight at Dollar Tree after the retailer showed openness to implementing some of the changes the hedge fund had sought, which included testing higher price points to boost profits. This year, as prices rise for many products, calls from investors to “break the buck” have intensified.


As of Tuesday evening, Dollar Tree’s stock had fallen around 20% this year, while the S&P 500 was up around 16%. Competitor Dollar General Corp.’s stock has risen around 2% so far this year.

Dollar Tree’s stock rose more than 16% in midday trading Wednesday.

The Chesapeake, Va., company sells most products at $1 through its Dollar Tree stores. At its roughly 7,900 Family Dollar stores, a chain that the company bought in 2015, products are sold at a range of prices.

Dollar General has reported 31 consecutive years of growth and is opening new U.S. stores every day. In this video, WSJ takes an inside look at how the discount retailer keeps expanding while maintaining prices significantly lower than many grocery and drug stores. Photo: Matt Disbro for The Wall Street Journal
In August, the company reduced its profit outlook for the full year, saying that rising supply-chain and freight costs would eat into earnings. The company now estimates earnings per share of $5.40 to $5.60, down from a range of $5.80 to $6.05 the company forecast in May.

Early in the year, the company assumed that ocean carriers supplying the company with products would fulfill around 85% of their contractual commitments, Mr. Witynski said on an August call with analysts. Now the company expects about 60% of commitments to be fulfilled and at higher rates, he said.

“Our products have lower price points than other retail importers and, as a result, our freight costs are a higher percentage of our gross merchandise margin,” Mr. Witynski said. The company also faces labor shortages in warehouses and stores, he said.

In response, Dollar Tree has reserved dedicated space on chartered vessels for the first time and is adding manufacturing sources that don’t rely on trans-Pacific shipping, said Mr. Witynski. It also is ordering some products earlier, has increased pay in some locations and is offering sign-on bonuses and hosting hiring events, he said.

In August, the company reported weak sales at its Dollar Tree chain, with comparable sales—those from stores or digital channels operating for at least 12 months—down 0.2% in the quarter ended July 31. Sales at its Family Dollar stores fell 2.1% after a strong pandemic-related sales surge during the same period last year.

The company’s merchants, who historically aim to buy products for around 43 cents, will also be able to work with suppliers to source slightly higher-priced items, said Mr. Witynski.

“These price points will bring a meaningful assortment that over time will have a positive impact on our performance,” he said.

Write to Sarah Nassauer at [email protected]
Now I love those cowboys, I love their gold
Love my uncle, God rest his soul
Taught me good, Lord, taught me all I know
Taught me so well, that I grabbed that gold
I left his dead ass there by the side of the road, yeah
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NattyBohChamps04
Posts: 2796
Joined: Tue May 04, 2021 11:40 pm

Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by NattyBohChamps04 »

Farfromgeneva wrote: Wed Sep 29, 2021 3:42 pm So are SPACS from meme investors who love AMC, Hertz and other dogs.

In the meantime the food desserts are getting more expensive

Dollar Tree to Sell More Items Above $1 as Costs Rise
Discount chain expanding earlier tests to boost prices, citing higher wage and freight costs

Dollar Tree plans to sell products at $1.25 and $1.50 or other prices slightly above $1 in some of its stores.
PHOTO: ERIN SCOTT/REUTERS
By Sarah Nassauer
Updated Sept. 29, 2021 12:22 pm ET

The buck has stopped at Dollar Tree Inc.
Investors are j@cked to the t!ts with the announcement. lol. Big duh moment.

The dollar menu at fast food places lasted a little over a decade in their substantial forms, with franchises hating them. Dollar Tree has been selling majority $1 items since 1986.

Regarding food deserts (way less fun than food desserts), Family Dollar makes up half their revenue from a quick search, and is going to eventually be that oasis in every food desert (along with rival Dollar General) - traditional grocery stores have been giving the deserts the middle finger for a couple of decades now, with no signs of filling in the void. They don't sell stuff for a dollar, so why should the parent company?

Family Dollar for the everyday food, Dollar Tree for the cancer causing spatulas and pans once a year. It's a win-win for the investor.
a fan
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Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by a fan »

NattyBohChamps04 wrote: Wed Sep 29, 2021 10:05 pm Investors are j@cked to the t!ts with the announcement. lol.
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NattyBohChamps04
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Joined: Tue May 04, 2021 11:40 pm

Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by NattyBohChamps04 »

a fan wrote: Wed Sep 29, 2021 10:26 pm
NattyBohChamps04 wrote: Wed Sep 29, 2021 10:05 pm Investors are j@cked to the t!ts with the announcement. lol.
It's interesting how cocaine usage and overdoses spikes around 2006 a little bit prior to the crash.

There was another spike in use in 2017 and a decline in 2018 and 2019, but COVID threw a wrench into any causality. We're just flat out boned now. Reports from fellow colleagues the past few days of their Chinese factories rationing power to hit 2030 emissions goals, delaying production time and driving up prices. Local intel says it's actually Chinese nationalism pounding factories too reliant on US exports to get back to in-country manufacturing.

Capitalism for the sake of capitalism with 80's Reaganistic gusto has cut our b@lls off. Bourbon is gonna hit a cliff soon domestically, then Japan and following countries will drain the remaining main veins. You seem diversified, Rum will follow another boom and bust after, then we'll see what happens. Gonna be a rough 2-3 decades man... for all of us. General alcohol sales are normally recession proof.
Farfromgeneva
Posts: 23816
Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2019 10:53 am

Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by Farfromgeneva »

NattyBohChamps04 wrote: Wed Sep 29, 2021 10:05 pm
Farfromgeneva wrote: Wed Sep 29, 2021 3:42 pm So are SPACS from meme investors who love AMC, Hertz and other dogs.

In the meantime the food desserts are getting more expensive

Dollar Tree to Sell More Items Above $1 as Costs Rise
Discount chain expanding earlier tests to boost prices, citing higher wage and freight costs

Dollar Tree plans to sell products at $1.25 and $1.50 or other prices slightly above $1 in some of its stores.
PHOTO: ERIN SCOTT/REUTERS
By Sarah Nassauer
Updated Sept. 29, 2021 12:22 pm ET

The buck has stopped at Dollar Tree Inc.
Investors are j@cked to the t!ts with the announcement. lol. Big duh moment.

The dollar menu at fast food places lasted a little over a decade in their substantial forms, with franchises hating them. Dollar Tree has been selling majority $1 items since 1986.

Regarding food deserts (way less fun than food desserts), Family Dollar makes up half their revenue from a quick search, and is going to eventually be that oasis in every food desert (along with rival Dollar General) - traditional grocery stores have been giving the deserts the middle finger for a couple of decades now, with no signs of filling in the void. They don't sell stuff for a dollar, so why should the parent company?

Family Dollar for the everyday food, Dollar Tree for the cancer causing spatulas and pans once a year. It's a win-win for the investor.
Stick around, I do this from my phone and you’ll hve plenty of opportunities to pick at my spelling or grammar. But we did have a pudding station at our wedding (rice, banana, bread and two others) and more wife’s parents even had to cut her back on that part of it but I got what I cared about so that’s their problem.

I just recall this cabin we had in the northern ga mountains, Ellijay, and I’d be lazy and rather than drive the 11-15mi to the BiLo, or even ten miles to the most disgusting Food Lion that even a dirty bodega in the south bronx would be horrified by, and hit the dollar general for some dogiorno pizzas and other garbage since I was there to do nothing and not interested in spending 2-3hrs on a weekend day in a grocery store. But I also noted how for folks on or near this Rte 52 that we were off of who had precious few shekels that the drive was onerous and so they loved off that crap. Seen it in many rural spots in my business travels as well. It’s foul. I know it’s equally true in some low low income parts of Atlanta, generally south of Interstate 20.
Now I love those cowboys, I love their gold
Love my uncle, God rest his soul
Taught me good, Lord, taught me all I know
Taught me so well, that I grabbed that gold
I left his dead ass there by the side of the road, yeah
Farfromgeneva
Posts: 23816
Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2019 10:53 am

Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by Farfromgeneva »

a fan wrote: Wed Sep 29, 2021 10:26 pm
NattyBohChamps04 wrote: Wed Sep 29, 2021 10:05 pm Investors are j@cked to the t!ts with the announcement. lol.
This movie is good only because Margot Robbie is in a bathtub. Read the book. Totally different and better. Michael Lewis is an easy read type of writer as well. Same w Moneyball & Blind Side. Even go back to the book that got Lewis out of working as a bond salesman at Salomon Brothers and into a $10/word writing. It’s considered a seminal 80s street book along w Monkey Business (general street work), Predators Ball (about a important firm in the 80s that created and owned the junk bond market named Drexel Burham Lambert) & Barbarians at the Gate (about the massive and record setting at the time buyout of RJR Nabisco in around 1989, maybe 87).
Now I love those cowboys, I love their gold
Love my uncle, God rest his soul
Taught me good, Lord, taught me all I know
Taught me so well, that I grabbed that gold
I left his dead ass there by the side of the road, yeah
Farfromgeneva
Posts: 23816
Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2019 10:53 am

Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by Farfromgeneva »

a fan wrote: Wed Sep 29, 2021 10:26 pm
NattyBohChamps04 wrote: Wed Sep 29, 2021 10:05 pm Investors are j@cked to the t!ts with the announcement. lol.
I should add I hate John Paulson. Calling Trips, I hate the man. I and a buddy who worked in the CMBS business pitched John and his firm for a week, under supposed NDA, to educate on the structure and mechanics of that market (bonds backed by commercial rather than residential mortgages). How the loans are structured, hedged, pooler and sold, traded in the secondary market and how special servicers worked out or liquidated defaulted loans plus other aspects. The entire premise is HWS farm out the money or we’d get the cut for managing that to buy these things for dirt cheap amounts as they were dragged down like many CLOs and other structured products by no one in the market (financial crisis was fundamentally one of a liquidity problem which I’ve harped on here before now as a similar concern) and that these deals would perform fine on the other side. We were right but that motherf**er said “NDA? who are these little guys, I’m a star and have money and they are both out of work nobodies, come after me” (at the time-we ultimately came out fine on the other side setting aside my recent unrelated past) and went off and executed on his own and made several hundred million in profit. Paulsen has lost and lost big on many investments such as gold in the boat decade and still living off his reputation because of this book and his mortgage trade, a good one but besides this story and other crisis driven ones he’s sucked since. Guy cost me and my friend a lot of money (our pitch was 50bps/0.5% of their profits above the first 8% return and he made like 50-70% on tens of millions invested…). I’d love to take him to the cleaners on the other side of the table from him if I ever get the chance. Please god let me have the chance.
Now I love those cowboys, I love their gold
Love my uncle, God rest his soul
Taught me good, Lord, taught me all I know
Taught me so well, that I grabbed that gold
I left his dead ass there by the side of the road, yeah
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