Taliban reclaims Afghanistan

[a fan]

The decision to abandon Bagram will come back to bite Biden in the ass. That is the single event that proved Biden had lost control of our exit from Afghanistan.

Yep. The decision to close Bagram & reduce troop strength from 2500 down to 650, nearly 2 mos before we had to -- before we had our people & critical equipment out, was a green flag to the Taliban & a surrender flag to the ASF. It was totally unnecessary, as we subsequently demonstrated when we evacuated & retrograded 6000 troops & their equipment in 3 days, at the end of the massive civilian airlift, from just one urban airport under siege. Just imagine what we & our allied nations could have airlifted in those final days out of Bagram, Mazir-i-Sharif, Shindand, Herat & HKIA, had we planned it that way.

I think we're going to find out one of three possibilities:

1. Biden relied on military Generals who told him that the "Afghan army" we armed, trained, and bankrolled for 20 years would be able to hold these facilities for a few months with ease, or...

2. Biden overruled them all to get us out before something changed, leaving any and all F ups during his first year if office, knowing full well that come next election, all Americans will remember is that we're out of Afghanistan. In other words, it won't matter because it's off the front page a year+ before the next election. A political calculation overruling anything else. Presidents handle war like this all the time, timing their decisions around election concerns.

3. A combination of both.

My money is on #3, leaning heavily toward #2.

[seacoaster]

The decision to abandon Bagram will come back to bite Biden in the ass. That is the single event that proved Biden had lost control of our exit from Afghanistan.

Yep. The decision to close Bagram & reduce troop strength from 2500 down to 650, nearly 2 mos before we had to -- before we had our people & critical equipment out, was a green flag to the Taliban & a surrender flag to the ASF. It was totally unnecessary, as we subsequently demonstrated when we evacuated & retrograded 6000 troops & their equipment in 3 days, at the end of the massive civilian airlift, from just one urban airport under siege. Just imagine what we & our allied nations could have airlifted in those final days out of Bagram, Mazir-i-Sharif, Shindand, Herat & HKIA, had we planned it that way.

I think we're going to find out one of three possibilities:

1. Biden relied on military Generals who told him that the "Afghan army" we armed, trained, and bankrolled for 20 years would be able to hold these facilities for a few months with ease, or...

2. Biden overruled them all to get us out before something changed, leaving any and all F ups during his first year if office, knowing full well that come next election, all Americans will remember is that we're out of Afghanistan. In other words, it won't matter because it's off the front page a year+ before the next election. A political calculation overruling anything else. Presidents handle war like this all the time, timing their decisions around election concerns.

3. A combination of both.

My money is on #3, leaning heavily toward #2.

No. 2. He had the balls to get us out of an endless war. It wasn't pretty and could have been done better, but we are out. That's what Americans will remember.

[lagerhead]

The decision to abandon Bagram will come back to bite Biden in the ass. That is the single event that proved Biden had lost control of our exit from Afghanistan.

Yep. The decision to close Bagram & reduce troop strength from 2500 down to 650, nearly 2 mos before we had to -- before we had our people & critical equipment out, was a green flag to the Taliban & a surrender flag to the ASF. It was totally unnecessary, as we subsequently demonstrated when we evacuated & retrograded 6000 troops & their equipment in 3 days, at the end of the massive civilian airlift, from just one urban airport under siege. Just imagine what we & our allied nations could have airlifted in those final days out of Bagram, Mazir-i-Sharif, Shindand, Herat & HKIA, had we planned it that way.

I think we're going to find out one of three possibilities:

1. Biden relied on military Generals who told him that the "Afghan army" we armed, trained, and bankrolled for 20 years would be able to hold these facilities for a few months with ease, or...

2. Biden overruled them all to get us out before something changed, leaving any and all F ups during his first year if office, knowing full well that come next election, all Americans will remember is that we're out of Afghanistan. In other words, it won't matter because it's off the front page a year+ before the next election. A political calculation overruling anything else. Presidents handle war like this all the time, timing their decisions around election concerns.

3. A combination of both.

My money is on #3, leaning heavily toward #2.

No. 2. He had the balls to get us out of an endless war. It wasn't pretty and could have been done better, but we are out. That's what Americans will remember.

Did he sacrifice 2022 midterms for this strategy?

[old salt]

The decision to abandon Bagram will come back to bite Biden in the ass. That is the single event that proved Biden had lost control of our exit from Afghanistan.

Yep. The decision to close Bagram & reduce troop strength from 2500 down to 650, nearly 2 mos before we had to -- before we had our people & critical equipment out, was a green flag to the Taliban & a surrender flag to the ASF. It was totally unnecessary, as we subsequently demonstrated when we evacuated & retrograded 6000 troops & their equipment in 3 days, at the end of the massive civilian airlift, from just one urban airport under siege. Just imagine what we & our allied nations could have airlifted in those final days out of Bagram, Mazir-i-Sharif, Shindand, Herat & HKIA, had we planned it that way.

I think we're going to find out one of three possibilities:

1. Biden relied on military Generals who told him that the "Afghan army" we armed, trained, and bankrolled for 20 years would be able to hold these facilities for a few months with ease, or...

2. Biden overruled them all to get us out before something changed, leaving any and all F ups during his first year if office, knowing full well that come next election, all Americans will remember is that we're out of Afghanistan. In other words, it won't matter because it's off the front page a year+ before the next election. A political calculation overruling anything else. Presidents handle war like this all the time, timing their decisions around election concerns.

3. A combination of both.

My money is on #3, leaning heavily toward #2.

I think most likely was that Biden imposed a limit on the number of troops that could stay in Afghanistan or swap out to cover the retreat.
The Marine battalion that was sent in came from the Amphib ships we had in the N Arabian Sea.
The 3 Army battalions were the standing quick reaction from the 82nd Airborne in Ft Bragg NC. They were slated to go to Kuwait to cover the retreat but ended up flying directly into Kabul.
That was the force that covered the retreat. The hope was they'd never set foot in Afghanistan.
They were too little, too late.

[seacoaster]

The decision to abandon Bagram will come back to bite Biden in the ass. That is the single event that proved Biden had lost control of our exit from Afghanistan.

Yep. The decision to close Bagram & reduce troop strength from 2500 down to 650, nearly 2 mos before we had to -- before we had our people & critical equipment out, was a green flag to the Taliban & a surrender flag to the ASF. It was totally unnecessary, as we subsequently demonstrated when we evacuated & retrograded 6000 troops & their equipment in 3 days, at the end of the massive civilian airlift, from just one urban airport under siege. Just imagine what we & our allied nations could have airlifted in those final days out of Bagram, Mazir-i-Sharif, Shindand, Herat & HKIA, had we planned it that way.

I think we're going to find out one of three possibilities:

1. Biden relied on military Generals who told him that the "Afghan army" we armed, trained, and bankrolled for 20 years would be able to hold these facilities for a few months with ease, or...

2. Biden overruled them all to get us out before something changed, leaving any and all F ups during his first year if office, knowing full well that come next election, all Americans will remember is that we're out of Afghanistan. In other words, it won't matter because it's off the front page a year+ before the next election. A political calculation overruling anything else. Presidents handle war like this all the time, timing their decisions around election concerns.

3. A combination of both.

My money is on #3, leaning heavily toward #2.

No. 2. He had the balls to get us out of an endless war. It wasn't pretty and could have been done better, but we are out. That's what Americans will remember.

Did he sacrifice 2022 midterms for this strategy?

Maybe, if enough Americans think that Kevin McCarthy would make a good Speaker. Never going to underestimate how stupid Americans are again after 2016 and the individual response to Covid. We dum.

[old salt]

The decision to abandon Bagram will come back to bite Biden in the ass. That is the single event that proved Biden had lost control of our exit from Afghanistan.

Yep. The decision to close Bagram & reduce troop strength from 2500 down to 650, nearly 2 mos before we had to -- before we had our people & critical equipment out, was a green flag to the Taliban & a surrender flag to the ASF. It was totally unnecessary, as we subsequently demonstrated when we evacuated & retrograded 6000 troops & their equipment in 3 days, at the end of the massive civilian airlift, from just one urban airport under siege. Just imagine what we & our allied nations could have airlifted in those final days out of Bagram, Mazir-i-Sharif, Shindand, Herat & HKIA, had we planned it that way.

I think we're going to find out one of three possibilities:

1. Biden relied on military Generals who told him that the "Afghan army" we armed, trained, and bankrolled for 20 years would be able to hold these facilities for a few months with ease, or...

2. Biden overruled them all to get us out before something changed, leaving any and all F ups during his first year if office, knowing full well that come next election, all Americans will remember is that we're out of Afghanistan. In other words, it won't matter because it's off the front page a year+ before the next election. A political calculation overruling anything else. Presidents handle war like this all the time, timing their decisions around election concerns.

3. A combination of both.

My money is on #3, leaning heavily toward #2.

I think most likely was that Biden imposed a limit on the number of troops that could stay in Afghanistan or swap out to cover the retreat.
The Marine battalion that was sent in came from the Amphib ships we had in the N Arabian Sea.
The 3 Army battalions were the standing quick reaction from the 82nd Airborne in Ft Bragg NC. They were slated to go to Kuwait to cover the retreat but ended up flying directly into Kabul.
That was the force that covered the retreat. The hope was they'd never set foot in Afghanistan.
They were too little, too late.

Maybe it's time to fly the 82nd Airborne into Mazir-I-Sharif to help the Taliban process the passengers delayed for departure.

[lagerhead]

The decision to abandon Bagram will come back to bite Biden in the ass. That is the single event that proved Biden had lost control of our exit from Afghanistan.

Yep. The decision to close Bagram & reduce troop strength from 2500 down to 650, nearly 2 mos before we had to -- before we had our people & critical equipment out, was a green flag to the Taliban & a surrender flag to the ASF. It was totally unnecessary, as we subsequently demonstrated when we evacuated & retrograded 6000 troops & their equipment in 3 days, at the end of the massive civilian airlift, from just one urban airport under siege. Just imagine what we & our allied nations could have airlifted in those final days out of Bagram, Mazir-i-Sharif, Shindand, Herat & HKIA, had we planned it that way.

I think we're going to find out one of three possibilities:

1. Biden relied on military Generals who told him that the "Afghan army" we armed, trained, and bankrolled for 20 years would be able to hold these facilities for a few months with ease, or...

2. Biden overruled them all to get us out before something changed, leaving any and all F ups during his first year if office, knowing full well that come next election, all Americans will remember is that we're out of Afghanistan. In other words, it won't matter because it's off the front page a year+ before the next election. A political calculation overruling anything else. Presidents handle war like this all the time, timing their decisions around election concerns.

3. A combination of both.

My money is on #3, leaning heavily toward #2.

No. 2. He had the balls to get us out of an endless war. It wasn't pretty and could have been done better, but we are out. That's what Americans will remember.

Did he sacrifice 2022 midterms for this strategy?

Maybe, if enough Americans think that Kevin McCarthy would make a good Speaker. Never going to underestimate how stupid Americans are again after 2016 and the individual response to Covid. We dum.

Thanks. You could have stopped after the first sentence.

[seacoaster]

The decision to abandon Bagram will come back to bite Biden in the ass. That is the single event that proved Biden had lost control of our exit from Afghanistan.

Yep. The decision to close Bagram & reduce troop strength from 2500 down to 650, nearly 2 mos before we had to -- before we had our people & critical equipment out, was a green flag to the Taliban & a surrender flag to the ASF. It was totally unnecessary, as we subsequently demonstrated when we evacuated & retrograded 6000 troops & their equipment in 3 days, at the end of the massive civilian airlift, from just one urban airport under siege. Just imagine what we & our allied nations could have airlifted in those final days out of Bagram, Mazir-i-Sharif, Shindand, Herat & HKIA, had we planned it that way.

I think we're going to find out one of three possibilities:

1. Biden relied on military Generals who told him that the "Afghan army" we armed, trained, and bankrolled for 20 years would be able to hold these facilities for a few months with ease, or...

2. Biden overruled them all to get us out before something changed, leaving any and all F ups during his first year if office, knowing full well that come next election, all Americans will remember is that we're out of Afghanistan. In other words, it won't matter because it's off the front page a year+ before the next election. A political calculation overruling anything else. Presidents handle war like this all the time, timing their decisions around election concerns.

3. A combination of both.

My money is on #3, leaning heavily toward #2.

No. 2. He had the balls to get us out of an endless war. It wasn't pretty and could have been done better, but we are out. That's what Americans will remember.

Did he sacrifice 2022 midterms for this strategy?

Maybe, if enough Americans think that Kevin McCarthy would make a good Speaker. Never going to underestimate how stupid Americans are again after 2016 and the individual response to Covid. We dum.

Thanks. You could have stopped after the first sentence.

Yeah, you're right. Sorry.

[lagerhead]

The decision to abandon Bagram will come back to bite Biden in the ass. That is the single event that proved Biden had lost control of our exit from Afghanistan.

Yep. The decision to close Bagram & reduce troop strength from 2500 down to 650, nearly 2 mos before we had to -- before we had our people & critical equipment out, was a green flag to the Taliban & a surrender flag to the ASF. It was totally unnecessary, as we subsequently demonstrated when we evacuated & retrograded 6000 troops & their equipment in 3 days, at the end of the massive civilian airlift, from just one urban airport under siege. Just imagine what we & our allied nations could have airlifted in those final days out of Bagram, Mazir-i-Sharif, Shindand, Herat & HKIA, had we planned it that way.

I think we're going to find out one of three possibilities:

1. Biden relied on military Generals who told him that the "Afghan army" we armed, trained, and bankrolled for 20 years would be able to hold these facilities for a few months with ease, or...

2. Biden overruled them all to get us out before something changed, leaving any and all F ups during his first year if office, knowing full well that come next election, all Americans will remember is that we're out of Afghanistan. In other words, it won't matter because it's off the front page a year+ before the next election. A political calculation overruling anything else. Presidents handle war like this all the time, timing their decisions around election concerns.

3. A combination of both.

My money is on #3, leaning heavily toward #2.

No. 2. He had the balls to get us out of an endless war. It wasn't pretty and could have been done better, but we are out. That's what Americans will remember.

Did he sacrifice 2022 midterms for this strategy?

Maybe, if enough Americans think that Kevin McCarthy would make a good Speaker. Never going to underestimate how stupid Americans are again after 2016 and the individual response to Covid. We dum.

Thanks. You could have stopped after the first sentence.

Yeah, you're right. Sorry.

I will do more due diligence on McCarthy, don’t know a lot about him.

[a fan]

The decision to abandon Bagram will come back to bite Biden in the ass. That is the single event that proved Biden had lost control of our exit from Afghanistan.

Yep. The decision to close Bagram & reduce troop strength from 2500 down to 650, nearly 2 mos before we had to -- before we had our people & critical equipment out, was a green flag to the Taliban & a surrender flag to the ASF. It was totally unnecessary, as we subsequently demonstrated when we evacuated & retrograded 6000 troops & their equipment in 3 days, at the end of the massive civilian airlift, from just one urban airport under siege. Just imagine what we & our allied nations could have airlifted in those final days out of Bagram, Mazir-i-Sharif, Shindand, Herat & HKIA, had we planned it that way.

I think we're going to find out one of three possibilities:

1. Biden relied on military Generals who told him that the "Afghan army" we armed, trained, and bankrolled for 20 years would be able to hold these facilities for a few months with ease, or...

2. Biden overruled them all to get us out before something changed, leaving any and all F ups during his first year if office, knowing full well that come next election, all Americans will remember is that we're out of Afghanistan. In other words, it won't matter because it's off the front page a year+ before the next election. A political calculation overruling anything else. Presidents handle war like this all the time, timing their decisions around election concerns.

3. A combination of both.

My money is on #3, leaning heavily toward #2.

No. 2. He had the balls to get us out of an endless war. It wasn't pretty and could have been done better, but we are out. That's what Americans will remember.

Did he sacrifice 2022 midterms for this strategy?

No. And that's the point-----if he had dragged this out for months? And anything----literally anything bad----happened? (odds of that happening, oh, about 99%)

Then it's election fodder. That's why he got us out before fall.

Seacoaster is right: he'll be remember for getting us out. Rip the band aid off, and deal with the sting for a few months. Recall that Trump wanted us out, too...America first.

[a fan]

That was the force that covered the retreat. The hope was they'd never set foot in Afghanistan.
They were too little, too late.

Yep. You know how badly I wanted out of Afghanistan (and Iraq...still there). So for that part, I'm thrilled.

But it's pretty obvious this whole operation was just a complete mess. IMHO, we're gonna find out about the political motivation behind the speed....and Generals using "wishful thinking" in terms of the state of the paper tiger that was the Afghani military.

I'd like to think there was a better way to get out in the same space of time. There are no guarantees in this sort of thing, obviously. So who knows?

[old salt]

That was the force that covered the retreat. The hope was they'd never set foot in Afghanistan.
They were too little, too late.

Yep. You know how badly I wanted out of Afghanistan (and Iraq...still there). So for that part, I'm thrilled.

But it's pretty obvious this whole operation was just a complete mess. IMHO, we're gonna find out about the political motivation behind the speed....and Generals using "wishful thinking" in terms of the state of the paper tiger that was the Afghani military.

I'd like to think there was a better way to get out in the same space of time. There are no guarantees in this sort of thing, obviously. So who knows?

Unfortunately, the way we left increases the chances we'll have to go back. Just like we had to go back into Iraq (+ Syria).

[a fan]

Unfortunately, the way we left increases the chances we'll have to go back. Just like we had to go back into Iraq (+ Syria).

Lets hope you're wrong. Because Biden won't go back while he's POTUS.

[lagerhead]

The decision to abandon Bagram will come back to bite Biden in the ass. That is the single event that proved Biden had lost control of our exit from Afghanistan.

Yep. The decision to close Bagram & reduce troop strength from 2500 down to 650, nearly 2 mos before we had to -- before we had our people & critical equipment out, was a green flag to the Taliban & a surrender flag to the ASF. It was totally unnecessary, as we subsequently demonstrated when we evacuated & retrograded 6000 troops & their equipment in 3 days, at the end of the massive civilian airlift, from just one urban airport under siege. Just imagine what we & our allied nations could have airlifted in those final days out of Bagram, Mazir-i-Sharif, Shindand, Herat & HKIA, had we planned it that way.

I think we're going to find out one of three possibilities:

1. Biden relied on military Generals who told him that the "Afghan army" we armed, trained, and bankrolled for 20 years would be able to hold these facilities for a few months with ease, or...

2. Biden overruled them all to get us out before something changed, leaving any and all F ups during his first year if office, knowing full well that come next election, all Americans will remember is that we're out of Afghanistan. In other words, it won't matter because it's off the front page a year+ before the next election. A political calculation overruling anything else. Presidents handle war like this all the time, timing their decisions around election concerns.

3. A combination of both.

My money is on #3, leaning heavily toward #2.

No. 2. He had the balls to get us out of an endless war. It wasn't pretty and could have been done better, but we are out. That's what Americans will remember.

Did he sacrifice 2022 midterms for this strategy?

No. And that's the point-----if he had dragged this out for months? And anything----literally anything bad----happened? (odds of that happening, oh, about 99%)

Then it's election fodder. That's why he got us out before fall.

Seacoaster is right: he'll be remember for getting us out. Rip the band aid off, and deal with the sting for a few months. Recall that Trump wanted us out, too...America first.

Afan I think your right for 3 year horizon but I’m thinking midterm ads will still be targeting the withdrawal. We may have ripped the band aid off but we will have to see whether we get an infection or scab.

[old salt]

This is the problem with predicating warfighting strategy based on election cycles, especially 2 year cycles.
The time to withdraw would be in the dead of winter when the Taliban is holed up in Pakistan, but Biden wasn't willing to hold on 4-6 mos longer & back up the ASF with air power, logistics, intell & special forces. We've been getting it done with 2500 troops, our drones & the Afghan Air Force. That would also allow time to process the SIVs & compile a list of legit potential refugees & start moving the SIVs out. That wouldn't undermine Ghani -- the SIVs have been trying to get out for years. Bring Ghani into the Doha process & string along the peace negotiations, pushing back the departure date another 6 mos, as had already been done once,
That would have given the Ghani govt & the ASF a fighting chance. The maint contractors for the Afghan Air Force could have stayed on, giving the ASF a chance to hold on. Our NATO & other allies did not want to pull out yet & they had over twice as many troops there as we did.
Biden would still have gotten us out well before the midterms & he'd have avoided the withdrawal debacle which has tanked his poll numbers.
The fate of those left behind & what the Taliban does will determine when US voters tune out. Don't assume this will be resolved & forgotten by the election.

[a fan]

Afan I think your right for 3 year horizon but I’m thinking midterm ads will still be targeting the withdrawal.

Why?---this is all on Biden. It has literally nothing to do with a Congressmen running for reelection.

[a fan]

This is the problem with predicating warfighting strategy based on election cycles, especially 2 year cycles.

And yet they all do it. It's why, imho, Trump didn't ACTUALLY leave Afghanistan. Then it would be on him, and we can't have that in an election year, right?

So he kicks the can, just like Obama did.

[a fan]

Our NATO & other allies did not want to pull out yet & they had over twice as many troops there as we did.

So why didn't they simply stay? What's stopping them?

[old salt]

This is the problem with predicating warfighting strategy based on election cycles, especially 2 year cycles.

And yet they all do it. It's why, imho, Trump didn't ACTUALLY leave Afghanistan. Then it would be on him, and we can't have that in an election year, right?

So he kicks the can, just like Obama did.

That's why I don't believe Trump would have departed if he won the election,
....but If he held to the May 1st departure date, it would have gotten us out before the Taliban had taken back all the provinces they did by Aug 31.

[old salt]

Our NATO & other allies did not want to pull out yet & they had over twice as many troops there as we did.

So why didn't they simply stay? What's stopping them?

You know they don't have the capability to do it without us. NATO is primarily a defensive alliance. They don't have the ability to project power for a sustained period. Give them credit -- this was their best effort since the Cold War.