I agree with your last paragraph. I'd also add that it will matter whether we're able to interdict terrorist threats successfully and whether Afghanistan can achieve even a modicum of a civil society that moves forward relative to the Taliban's prior reign of terror.old salt wrote: ↑Tue Aug 31, 2021 10:22 pmI maintain that we've been succeeding with an ever smaller presence every year since 2015.MDlaxfan76 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 31, 2021 1:48 pmHow large was the ASF?old salt wrote: ↑Tue Aug 31, 2021 12:27 pmYou can't occupy a country of that size with 2,500 troops.dislaxxic wrote: ↑Tue Aug 31, 2021 10:39 amThe American public has been lied to about this "war", this occupation, for 20 years, their opinions about it totally misinformed. The training of an Afghan force had been underway for 10 years at least. THAT'S the major failure here, the failure of the trainers and facilitators that threw money at the issue for years without a CLUE about the dynamics, the culture, of the country. The "government" installed there was hopelessly corrupt and fully intertwined with the American military-industrial complex that has been feeding at the trough of slush provided by the American Taxpayer for decades.old salt wrote: ↑Tue Aug 31, 2021 10:15 amhttps://www.politico.com/news/2021/08/1 ... ban-505165
Support for the American military withdrawal from Afghanistan dropped 20 percentage points from April to August as the Taliban takeover of the country accelerated,
38 percent said the U.S. should still withdraw if the Taliban regains control of most of Afghanistan. Forty-five percent of voters said the U.S. should probably or definitely not withdraw, a larger share than those who generally opposed the decision to withdraw.
...& that was before the fall of Kabul, the evac debacle & the KIA's @ HKIA.
Wasn't the whole point that they "occupy" their own country?
We didn't succeed with a massive surge (didn't help that we told the enemy that we wouldn't be staying even as we surged), we didn't succeed when it was 20k, 10k, and it certainly wasn't going to succeed with just 2,500.
We're simply not in the 'occupying' business.
I go back to the argument that we could and should have accepted the Taliban's offer for an unconditional surrender some 18-19 years ago. We'd made our point. But instead we became occupiers. And worse, allied with a corrupt government.
Or, at a minimum after Bin Laden was put down.
Dialing back to 2002-3, we hadn't decimated AQ yet & we didn't have a bead on OBL yet.
It's an interesting academic exercise, but it really doesn't matter anymore. We're out, for better or for worse.
What matters now is how many Americans, their Afghan family members & Afghan allies we can help get out.
In the meantime, yes, getting more folks out safely is really, really important. So, too, is their welcomed integration into American society. There's some really ugly stuff out there right now...hopefully the military, diplomatic, and intelligence folks, including retired, who worked with them, will step up big time to make clear that they deserve that welcome.