not disputing that on anti-vaxxers. in fact, i confirmed that idea and likely outcomes.Typical Lax Dad wrote: ↑Sat Aug 14, 2021 12:54 pmNo. Anti-vaxxers, anti-social distancers, anti-maskers all have contributed to the problem. Not the only problem but have contributed to it.wgdsr wrote: ↑Sat Aug 14, 2021 12:45 pmi thought it was seasonal? like the flu? what inning is delta in?Typical Lax Dad wrote: ↑Sat Aug 14, 2021 12:33 pmI am using other population centers in America with a high uptake rate as a comp.wgdsr wrote: ↑Sat Aug 14, 2021 12:14 pmi think it's more than just probable if more had been on board to vaxx it'd be a slower burn. but i don't understand the "if the anti-vaxx" part that folks belabor. how would that work if they're anti-vaxx? u see philippines' rates?Typical Lax Dad wrote: ↑Sat Aug 14, 2021 11:54 amHospitals may not have been overrun if the anti-vaxx and Anti-masks and anti-social distance people had gotten on board. The Delta course MAY have been less consequential, but we will never know.wgdsr wrote: ↑Sat Aug 14, 2021 11:33 am uk is vaxxed at a rate we could only dream of (and israel) and they are seeing surges. covid original and alpha may have been arrested if we approached those numbers, but not delta. delta's gotta a course to run.
vaxxing has followed the path of polling, 4 categories. get it right away, see what's up but get it relatively quickly if thumbs up, see what's up (intermediate or long term), and no way.
we got thru the first 2 stages relatively quickly and have stalled on stage 3 so far. the delta swing may be the thing that's needed.
best case was always getting everyone but the no way indies and rep's (~78% blended) and 75% of minorities that weren't in that basket... 30% of american adults, say 80% of them x .75.
that's 14% of total >12 pop no way indies and rep's, 6% minorities, for a total of 80% 12 and over vaxxed. or 69% of total pop. where uk is (not approved for < 18 yrs old yet).
back out 5% for wishful thinking and we can get to 75% 12 and over. that's only another 20 million taking their 1st (and 2nd) jab, and 2nd jabbers cleaning up what they started.
time to get the vaxx hesitant. they are out there.
my point is "if the anti-vaxxers" is a colossal straw man.
was just disussing the "straw man" of "if the anti-vaxxers got on board" part. there is no such world. it's a hypothetical not grounded in reality. ipso/facto, anti-vaxxers aren't getting a shot in the world as we know the rules today.