Johns Hopkins 2022

[HopFan16]

Todaro is definitely capable of playing LSM, as is Smith. Between Fernandez, Deans, Jaronski, Szuluk, Smith, Todaro, Bowler, Kaufman, I'm not super worried about it.

Again - with now 60 names on the roster - if Fernandez is returning - bodies to throw at any particular problem is not the issue. Experience and performance is. Fernandez is coming off his second ACL if not mistaken and has never played for Hopkins. Todaro, Bowler and Kaufman are freshmen obviously. Szuluk to my observation is a better close defensemen. Deans mysteriously disappeared from playing time midway through last season - injured? Jaronski split time between LSM and SSDM - as did Shure - maybe the most confusing coaching decision - (aside from the Grimes Claude Rains impersonation in the second half of that one game) - so there is not alot of experience. One of the things you want to see from your LSM is ground balls - such as DeLaney's 39. Jaronski 12/Szuluk 7/Deans 6 - I know they didn't play as much at the position but there's a hole there that needs to be filled.
Kaufman is my dark horse - that is one long rangy young man - if they can teach him what to do and where to go - could be a contributor.

Jaronski made some nice individual plays as a freshman LSM in what was a catastrophic team defense. Full season pace was 20+ GBs as the #2 LSM—not a bad number for a freshman in, again, a terrible defense. That outpaced what Reinson put up in a similar role his freshman year. Curious to see where they deploy him in 2022—I'm with you, I'd prefer they pick one or the other but I guess it's good to know the versatility is there should it be needed.

If I had to pick a dark horse there I'd go with Bowler—one of the new staff's first defensive recruits (flipped from Binghamton), one of the better defensemen this year in upstate/central NY and on film his aggressiveness jumps out.

Will be watching the UA game tomorrow night to see if Todaro plays wings on faceoffs. Can always use more help there especially with Delaney unlikely to return and Fernandez coming off injury.

[jhu06]

-One of your better posts 51. I'm not smart enough to know how that compares across d1 mens lax, d1 sports in general and Hopkins athletic department. That's a lot of extra tuition $ for the school, but as you've mentioned creates a ton of issues.

[wgdsr]

best parking garage or lot for homewood?

[51percentcorn]

Sorry wg.. I did not see this until late last night - well after the UA game if that was why you were asking - hopefully someone replied via PM. In the future - if you are going to see the 'hoos or someone at Homewood., I would concentrate on finding San Martin Drive - the curvy little road off University that runs right by the back of Homewood. There is a lot opposite the Space telescope Building where they hit you for maybe 10 bucks and its a couple minutes walk to the back entrance of Homewood. If you look on Google maps and you see a lot near the Hall of Fame Building called the Homewood lot - that might of been available to you last night but for home lacrosse games its where the Hop parents and likely top donors get to park and tailgate so its pass only.

Not that it matters really - but was there anything about Todaro noteworthy?

[wgdsr]

was there for the girls game, and looking to see if something was open closer to field than the bottom lot at st martin. the parking guy redirected us to much closer lot up the way bc we were early. and ya, the hof lot was vip. did get a pm for help also.

guys game - didn't see much as i was bs'ing with a dad and group for a 1/4 and then had to bounce. all i got early was schutz is a handful and the south was sloppy and being outhustled. but i guess they turned it around. game is archived on the espn app.

[HopFan16]

I watched the whole game. It's impossible to evaluate a defenseman in this setting but I will say that Todaro likes to push it in transition. Perhaps it's because I was watching him more than others but he kinda seemed to be everywhere. Something in the water with these Italian families on Long Island. At one point Quint called out his handles after he made a nice catch and pass in transition.

Schutz is indeed a handful. That's a big boy.

The player I was most impressed with was Leo Johnson headed to Yale. In a game that's mostly hero ball he racked up 4 or 5 assists on some pretty skip passes. He'll probably start for them right away.

There was some semblance of defense attempted in the first half but, as is tradition, in the second half the game opened up and zero D was played. Poor Andy Demopolous, the North team goalie in the second half (and nyjay's favorite Fallen Jay, decommit to Brown)—he got absolutely shelled.

No one else overwhelmingly stood out to me. Duke's McAdorey had a nice game—kid is tiny but very tough to stay in front of.

Thought I spotted Petro in his bright orange on the Cordish deck at one point but wasn't sure.

[Sagittarius A*]

The Huge news - 15 game schedule - 10 OOCs
Schedule loaded with good teams - UVA Loyola Georgetown UNC Syracuse are among the highlights

It looks like they are dodging Mt. St. Mary's.
What are they afraid of?

Seriously though, this is no easy schedule. All of the traditional OOC teams plus Georgetown. The Navy game will not be easy either.
Glad to see UVA and NAVY back. Those are two Uber traditional opponents.
At least the team has a FALL to prepare for this, but they have a serious gauntlet to run in the spring.

[Drcthru]

The Huge news - 15 game schedule - 10 OOCs
Schedule loaded with good teams - UVA Loyola Georgetown UNC Syracuse are among the highlights

It looks like they are dodging Mt. St. Mary's.
What are they afraid of?

Seriously though, this is no easy schedule. All of the traditional OOC teams plus Georgetown. The Navy game will not be easy either.
Glad to see UVA and NAVY back. Those are two Uber traditional opponents.
At least the team has a FALL to prepare for this, but they have a serious gauntlet to run in the spring.

Three options with this schedule: top-five ranking, maybe back into play-offs, go down in flames. I don't choose to pick

[DocBarrister]

The Huge news - 15 game schedule - 10 OOCs
Schedule loaded with good teams - UVA Loyola Georgetown UNC Syracuse are among the highlights

It looks like they are dodging Mt. St. Mary's.
What are they afraid of?

Seriously though, this is no easy schedule. All of the traditional OOC teams plus Georgetown. The Navy game will not be easy either.
Glad to see UVA and NAVY back. Those are two Uber traditional opponents.
At least the team has a FALL to prepare for this, but they have a serious gauntlet to run in the spring.

If the Blue Jays finish the regular season at 10-5, they will be one of the best teams in the nation and get a top-8 seed in the NCAA tournament. That is a very tough regular season schedule.

DocBarrister

[HopFan16]

Going just 8-7 won't be easy. There's some reason for optimism but let's not get ahead of ourselves.

The addition of Georgetown takes what was already a very tough OOC schedule in 2019 and makes it arguably the toughest in the country. Then you swap Jacksonville in for Mount St. Mary's (maybe a slight upgrade?) and add Navy. Zero easy outs. At the very least, we'll know how good (or not) we are by the end of the year. There won't be any ambiguity.

Not sure what to expect from Princeton this year. They were good in 2020 but obviously will be a completely different team in 2022.

Navy looks like they are back on the rise. Delaware also good last year. Virginia, Loyola, UNC all top 10 teams, maybe top 5. Cuse...who knows. Not very impressive last year and now lose their top scorer but hard to think they'll be any worse defensively.

[nyjay]

Well, there are plenty of opportunities for quality wins. Competitive dynamics will shift going forward a bit. 2021 was largely a rerun of the aborted 2020 season. An awful lot of really good players won't be back for 2022 and there will likely be some normal year to year variation that we didn't have last year. Yes, the transfer market mitigates this a bit, but there will be more movement about the top 10 next year.

Can't imagine the Ivies pick up where they left off in 2020, an entire season lost and an enormous talent exodus. I have faith in Shay and Yale, but not sure about the rest. Will definitely say that if the Jays don't beat Princeton next year, it certainly doesn't bode well at all for the rest of the schedule.

[courtdog]

Credit where credit is due. I thought they would lighten the load a little bit to generate some W's but PM is taking on all comers. Respect that.

[51percentcorn]

The addition of Georgetown takes what was already a very tough OOC schedule in 2019 and makes it arguably the toughest in the country. Then you swap Jacksonville in for Mount St. Mary's (maybe a slight upgrade?) and add Navy. Zero easy outs. At the very least, we'll know how good (or not) we are by the end of the year. There won't be any ambiguity.

There are 3 changes to the interrupted 2020 schedule
- Jacksonville swapped in for MSM
- Adding Georgetown
- Bringing back UVA

Navy was on the 2020 list.

The fact that UVA is defending national champs and Georgetown was a quarterfinalist really makes a usual tough road even rougher

I'll be interested in locations - do you pick up with the Heels, Tigers x2, Orange, Hounds where you left off? That means going to Johhny U, Chapel Hill and the Dome - Navy and Delaware were supposed to be away in '20. Delaware is going to be a problem - while they lose Kitchen (finally) they return everybody else and they have a bunch of Canadians that can put the biscuit in the basket.

[HopFan16]

If they pick up where they left off from 2020 before the cancellation (and flip the locations from 2019), then you'd be looking at...

Home:
Loyola
Princeton

Away:
Towson
North Carolina
Syracuse
Delaware
Navy
Virginia

Even if you put Georgetown and Jacksonville in the home column that's still 6 away and 4 home.

Long story short I don't think it's going to be exactly the above. Some of these contracts may have reset before/after Covid. There may not be much of a rhyme or reason to the location of OOC contests in 2022. We'll see. BTW—I was comparing current schedule to the most recent complete one in 2019, when we played Virginia that year, but not Navy. So given that, Virginia is not technically an addition.

Can't imagine the Ivies pick up where they left off in 2020, an entire season lost and an enormous talent exodus. I have faith in Shay and Yale, but not sure about the rest. Will definitely say that if the Jays don't beat Princeton next year, it certainly doesn't bode well at all for the rest of the schedule.

Penn should be solid. Again—different team from 2019—but they have talent and a good class coming in. Cornell falls into the Princeton column for me. Sans Teat it'll be a totally different team. And obviously a new head coach.

[jhu06]

how many mid week games is this?

[HopFan16]

how many mid week games is this?

You allegedly have a Hopkins degree so you should be able to do this math all on your own but for the sake of discussion: Assuming the first game is Saturday, Feb. 12, then there are 12 weekends between then and April 30. So if there are 15 games then there'd need to be 3 midweek games. 12 weekends + 3 midweeks = 15 regular season games. If they start a week earlier, on Feb. 5, then they'd only need two midweek games—just one more than normal. It'll be tough. Hopefully they're not cramming UVA between UNC and Georgetown.

[jhu06]

how many mid week games is this?

You allegedly have a Hopkins degree so you should be able to do this math all on your own but for the sake of discussion: Assuming the first game is Saturday, Feb. 12, then there are 12 weekends between then and April 30. So if there are 15 games then there'd need to be 3 midweek games. 12 weekends + 3 midweeks = 15 regular season games. If they start a week earlier, on Feb. 5, then they'd only need two midweek games—just one more than normal. It'll be tough. Hopefully they're not cramming UVA between UNC and Georgetown.

hmmmm
2022 opponents ranked from most likely to beat to least likely. I think there are 4 tiers.
Non top 20 strong favored 1 Jacksonville 2 Delaware 3 Towson 4 Princeton 5 Navy
10-20 ranked-depends on venue/matchup 6 Penn State 7 Rutgers 8 Michigan 9 Ohio State 10 Syracuse
5-10 ranked-we'll be underdogs 11 Loyola 12 North Carolina 13 Georgetown
1-5 ranked-we'll be heavy underdogs 14 Maryland 15 UVA

Season scenarios
2020 nightmare Win 50 percent of group 1, 1/3 of group 2/3, 0 of group 4. 5-10/6-9-no ncaa tournament, first round b1g loss
Purgatory we've been in most of Last 15 years 4 wins in group 1, 3 wins in group 2, 1 win in group 3/4. 8-7, 1 win in b1g tournament, first round ncaa loss. 9-9 on the year.
Improved season. 4-1 group 1. 3 wins in group 2. 3 wins in group 3/4. 10-5 regular season. Win b1g, First round home game. 13-6 season w/loss in ncaa 2nd round.

[Sagittarius A*]

how many mid week games is this?

You allegedly have a Hopkins degree so you should be able to do this math all on your own but for the sake of discussion: Assuming the first game is Saturday, Feb. 12, then there are 12 weekends between then and April 30. So if there are 15 games then there'd need to be 3 midweek games. 12 weekends + 3 midweeks = 15 regular season games. If they start a week earlier, on Feb. 5, then they'd only need two midweek games—just one more than normal. It'll be tough. Hopefully they're not cramming UVA between UNC and Georgetown.

hmmmm
2022 opponents ranked from most likely to beat to least likely. I think there are 4 tiers.
Non top 20 strong favored 1 Jacksonville 2 Delaware 3 Towson 4 Princeton 5 Navy
10-20 ranked-depends on venue/matchup 6 Penn State 7 Rutgers 8 Michigan 9 Ohio State 10 Syracuse
5-10 ranked-we'll be underdogs 11 Loyola 12 North Carolina 13 Georgetown
1-5 ranked-we'll be heavy underdogs 14 Maryland 15 UVA

Season scenarios
2020 nightmare Win 50 percent of group 1, 1/3 of group 2/3, 0 of group 4. 5-10/6-9-no ncaa tournament, first round b1g loss
Purgatory we've been in most of Last 15 years 4 wins in group 1, 3 wins in group 2, 1 win in group 3/4. 8-7, 1 win in b1g tournament, first round ncaa loss. 9-9 on the year.
Improved season. 4-1 group 1. 3 wins in group 2. 3 wins in group 3/4. 10-5 regular season. Win b1g, First round home game. 13-6 season w/loss in ncaa 2nd round.

I would say there's probably 8 games they should win here, 3 they are unlikely to win, and 4 toss-ups, potential wins.
So a 9 or 10 win season is in the realm of possibility.
I think the Ivies need more than a season to recover, so I'm counting Princeton as a likely win.
UNC, UVA, and UMD are very doubtful.
Lot's of opportunities for quality wins here but they need to finish above .500
I hope they have all the hiccups and experimentation out of their system by Spring.

[HopFan16]

how many mid week games is this?

You allegedly have a Hopkins degree so you should be able to do this math all on your own but for the sake of discussion: Assuming the first game is Saturday, Feb. 12, then there are 12 weekends between then and April 30. So if there are 15 games then there'd need to be 3 midweek games. 12 weekends + 3 midweeks = 15 regular season games. If they start a week earlier, on Feb. 5, then they'd only need two midweek games—just one more than normal. It'll be tough. Hopefully they're not cramming UVA between UNC and Georgetown.

hmmmm
2022 opponents ranked from most likely to beat to least likely. I think there are 4 tiers.
Non top 20 strong favored 1 Jacksonville 2 Delaware 3 Towson 4 Princeton 5 Navy
10-20 ranked-depends on venue/matchup 6 Penn State 7 Rutgers 8 Michigan 9 Ohio State 10 Syracuse
5-10 ranked-we'll be underdogs 11 Loyola 12 North Carolina 13 Georgetown
1-5 ranked-we'll be heavy underdogs 14 Maryland 15 UVA

Season scenarios
2020 nightmare Win 50 percent of group 1, 1/3 of group 2/3, 0 of group 4. 5-10/6-9-no ncaa tournament, first round b1g loss
Purgatory we've been in most of Last 15 years 4 wins in group 1, 3 wins in group 2, 1 win in group 3/4. 8-7, 1 win in b1g tournament, first round ncaa loss. 9-9 on the year.
Improved season. 4-1 group 1. 3 wins in group 2. 3 wins in group 3/4. 10-5 regular season. Win b1g, First round home game. 13-6 season w/loss in ncaa 2nd round.

I would say there's probably 8 games they should win here, 3 they are unlikely to win, and 4 toss-ups, potential wins.
So a 9 or 10 win season is in the realm of possibility.
I think the Ivies need more than a season to recover, so I'm counting Princeton as a likely win.
UNC, UVA, and UMD are very doubtful.
Lot's of opportunities for quality wins here but they need to finish above .500
I hope they have all the hiccups and experimentation out of their system by Spring.

I’m not seeing 8 games they “should” win. They’ll be favored against Jacksonville, Towson, Michigan, maybe Penn State. That’s four. We have NO idea what Princeton team we’re getting. Navy and Delaware are probably toss-ups at this point. I’d put Ohio State and Rutgers in that category as well. Slight underdogs to Cuse. Big underdogs to UMD, UVA, GTown, Loyola, UNC until further notice. Even if you generously put 5 teams in the “should” win column, you’re still looking at 5-5 with roughly 5 tossups. Go 3-2 there you’re still only 8-7. It’s an extremely tough slate. I’m an optimist and think the Jays could surprise people next year but remember this was a 4-9 team that now loses arguably its most potent dodging threat. Doesn’t mean they will go 4-9 (or 4-11) again—they will almost certainly do better, IMO—but that doesn’t mean there are 8 should-wins. The bookies are probably setting the over/under at 7.5 wins. I think taking the over on that is perfectly valid but that’s very different from banking 8 in the win column in August.

[Sagittarius A*]

I’m not seeing 8 games they “should” win. They’ll be favored against Jacksonville, Towson, Michigan, maybe Penn State. That’s four. We have NO idea what Princeton team we’re getting. Navy and Delaware are probably toss-ups at this point. I’d put Ohio State and Rutgers in that category as well. Slight underdogs to Cuse. Big underdogs to UMD, UVA, GTown, Loyola, UNC until further notice. Even if you generously put 5 teams in the “should” win column, you’re still looking at 5-5 with roughly 5 tossups. Go 3-2 there you’re still only 8-7. It’s an extremely tough slate. I’m an optimist and think the Jays could surprise people next year but remember this was a 4-9 team that now loses arguably its most potent dodging threat. Doesn’t mean they will go 4-9 (or 4-11) again—they will almost certainly do better, IMO—but that doesn’t mean there are 8 should-wins. The bookies are probably setting the over/under at 7.5 wins. I think taking the over on that is perfectly valid but that’s very different from banking 8 in the win column in August.

I'm basing my projections on the way they finished last season, plus they didn't lose a whole lot to graduation relative to other teams. They had Maryland on the ropes twice and they beat Rutgers who ended up taking UNC into OT in the playoffs. Rutgers was a VERY very good team last year. UNC was lucky to win that game tbh. Hop also drubbed Penn State who lost their top scorer to graduation.
So, based on that, they should probably beat Jacksonville, Towson, Michigan, Penn State, Ohio State, Princeton, Navy, and Delaware. No guarantees but these are teams they should beat.
UNC, MD, UVA again unlikely.
I don't honestly think Cuse, GTown, Loyola, and Rutgers will be "all that" next year. Rutgers loses a lot to graduation.
These teams are beatable, potentially, but could also beat the Jays. I'm sure they will all be favored on paper, but virtually no one gave Hop much of a chance against Rutgers in the BIG tournament last year and look how that turned out. I think Hop can win at least one of these games in 2022, maybe even two of them. We'll see. So that's my 9-10 win projection but if there's a lot of drama or turmoil that projection would go out the window of course.