Trying to follow your math...looks correct...call it 56 million who didn't vote for Trump...what percentage of these would we guess didn't vote at all? Checked out from civic life?wgdsr wrote: ↑Mon Jul 12, 2021 9:29 am for the numbers folks out there:
55.5% of the entire pop has gotten one shot. that's 183 million.
eligible are -- approx 280 million.
that leaves -- 97 million eligible, who have not.
trump received 74 million votes. "republicans" supposedly have gotten about 50% shots. let's assume for a moment all of those voting there didn't include a huge swath of independents (vaccinated in higher numbers), and are deciding to keep their 12-17 year olds from getting vaxxed at a similar rate. so 37 million + 4.15.
that leaves... 97 - 37 - 4.15 = 55.85 million people who aren't all in on maga who haven't gotten around to being vaxxed yet. 56 million.
we gotta get those mouth breathers in line. maybe door-to-door is the trick.
My political analysis of the Trump phenomenon was that he lost lots of votes that might have gone to a more moderate R, both R and Ind regular voters, but pulled in a huge number of people who rarely vote, rarely participate. There was quite a lot of bragging about exactly such folks, people who hadn't voted in decades being stirred to come vote for him.
I'm not so sure Biden brought in a lot of those such, rather his surge was more about regular, civically engaged voters simply choosing his lever over Trump.
That said, though record turnout, a third of eligible voters still didn't vote. I'm not so sure public health outreach door to door to going to sway many of those in the more deep red rural and exurban areas to get vaccinated, though some, but it's quite possible that those efforts will be most effective for those who are just overwhelmed in their lives with other issues and simply need help getting it done.
Maybe that's a trucker who felt he couldn't take a day off...maybe it's a bodega owner who just hasn't found the time...maybe it's a mom with two kids and a drug habit... maybe its a homeless man...all sorts of possibilities.