The Nation's Financial Condition

[jhu72]

Pretty much will always be Tappan Zee for all native NYC surrounding area folk I know.

... same for any long time east coast resident that did any traveling in NE.

[Jim Malone]

Thought he was barred from running anything public during his sentencing or is this a "private" entity?

Once your blessed institutionally (cough, John Meriwether, cough) you can do no wrong which bars you from being a fiduciary and getting institutional (pension fund Etc) allocations.

Jeff Skilling, the former C.E.O. of Enron, has launched an energy investment firm staffed with ex-consultants from McKinsey. (Reuters)

[Farfromgeneva]

Thought he was barred from running anything public during his sentencing or is this a "private" entity?

Once your blessed institutionally (cough, John Meriwether, cough) you can do no wrong which bars you from being a fiduciary and getting institutional (pension fund Etc) allocations.

Jeff Skilling, the former C.E.O. of Enron, has launched an energy investment firm staffed with ex-consultants from McKinsey. (Reuters)

Could be like a family office or perhaps it was a finite ruling. But why would folks allow a guy who ran one of the largest accounting frauds in modern history to be sub-contracted fiduciary is beyond me. They literally were making up fake trading floors and completely lying in their financials and he was on top of Fastow the entire time.

[ardilla secreta]

Pretty much will always be Tappan Zee for all native NYC surrounding area folk I know.

... same for any long time east coast resident that did any traveling in NE.

Until we leave this world. Younger generations won’t know what a Tappan Zee is.

[Brooklyn]

Private payrolls increased by 692,000 in June, beating expectations: ADP
Source: Yahoo! Finance

Private payrolls rose more than expected in June as businesses sought out more workers to fill job openings present across the recovering economy.

ADP reported Wednesday morning that private payrolls increased by 692,000 in June for a sixth straight monthly rise. Consensus economists were looking for an increase of 600,000, according to Bloomberg consensus data. In May, private employment grew by a 886,000 jobs, according to ADP's downwardly revised print.

Recent economic data has pointed to a labor market still making strides toward recovering, but at a slowing pace compared to the start of the year. New jobless claims, for instance, have popped back above 400,000 per week – a level well off pandemic-era highs, but persistently elevated compared to pre-virus levels.

And purchasing managers' indices from both IHS Markit and the Institute for Supply Management have pointed to slowing improvements in employment after an initial reopening-fueled surge. Employers across industries have reported having trouble finding qualified workers to fill job openings, capping what has otherwise been a strong ramp-up in economic activity.

{snip}

Read more: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/adp-june ... 42029.html





tRUMP caused job losses, Biden causes job increases.

[youthathletics]

[MDlaxfan76]

I wasn't sure what you were laughing at, then saw Brooklyn's last line...definitely a chuckle.

I think we can say a lot of things about Trump but I don't think we can blame him for job losses, though I suppose one could argue that mismanagement of Covid exacerbated job losses and length of losses. But mostly Covid to blame for the huge shock to the system. I do think we can give Biden some credit for a piece of the rebound jobs, but only a piece.

However, if Biden does manage to get the infrastructure bills through, that will be massively instrumental in job growth for the next decade.

A whole lot of that will be blue collar work, very much neglected part of the economy this past decade, and a whole lot will be women reentering the workforce, indeed expanded % from pre Covid period. And lots and lots of ripple effect.

But my back of the envelope says that we really don't have enough workers to handle all that growth in jobs, without substantial immigration...preferably legal!

And a critical part of handling the growth will be worker training and re-training to handle higher skilled roles, both in blue collar and service sectors.

Which is why 36% of Republicans, even in this hyper partisan zero sum world that's been constructed, support both proposed spending programs.

Anyone see what scares the bejesus out of the political class GOP?

[Farfromgeneva]

Brown or khaki skin?

[youthathletics]

We have plenty of labor to go around, especially for federal and state projects.....speed kills and so does redtape on each and every one of these projects. we just need them close the orders.

[PizzaSnake]

I wasn't sure what you were laughing at, then saw Brooklyn's last line...definitely a chuckle.

I think we can say a lot of things about Trump but I don't think we can blame him for job losses, though I suppose one could argue that mismanagement of Covid exacerbated job losses and length of losses. But mostly Covid to blame for the huge shock to the system. I do think we can give Biden some credit for a piece of the rebound jobs, but only a piece.

However, if Biden does manage to get the infrastructure bills through, that will be massively instrumental in job growth for the next decade.

A whole lot of that will be blue collar work, very much neglected part of the economy this past decade, and a whole lot will be women reentering the workforce, indeed expanded % from pre Covid period. And lots and lots of ripple effect.

But my back of the envelope says that we really don't have enough workers to handle all that growth in jobs, without substantial immigration...preferably legal!

And a critical part of handling the growth will be worker training and re-training to handle higher skilled roles, both in blue collar and service sectors.

Which is why 36% of Republicans, even in this hyper partisan zero sum world that's been constructed, support both proposed spending programs.

Anyone see what scares the bejesus out of the political class GOP?

With the mass migration that will occur with increased climate shocks, humans better give up on the idea of separate countries and just go with humans. Humans have rights, first and foremost among them the right to some water and some oxygen. Just as employer health insurance stifles worker mobility, so to will nations and national "boundaries" stifle the continued survival of humanity.

Need to be more like birds -- ever see a bird observe a property line?

[Farfromgeneva]

We have plenty of labor to go around, especially for federal and state projects.....speed kills and so does redtape on each and every one of these projects. we just need them close the orders.

https://whatnowatlanta.com/atlanta-belt ... g-forward/

[PizzaSnake]

We have plenty of labor to go around, especially for federal and state projects.....speed kills and so does redtape on each and every one of these projects. we just need them close the orders.

https://whatnowatlanta.com/atlanta-belt ... g-forward/

I hope they "engineer" to the coming physical reality and don't use 20th century datasets...

Notice how the Portland streetcars couldn't run when they were needed most?

[Farfromgeneva]

We have plenty of labor to go around, especially for federal and state projects.....speed kills and so does redtape on each and every one of these projects. we just need them close the orders.

https://whatnowatlanta.com/atlanta-belt ... g-forward/

I hope they "engineer" to the coming physical reality and don't use 20th century datasets...

Notice how the Portland streetcars couldn't run when they were needed most?

This is a little different. Kasim Reed, former mayor, took a bunch ($1Bn) of ARRA “shovel ready” federal money for a streetcar on a street called Edgewood and it’s been an unmitigated disaster to date. This is along this multi decade public works redeployment that’s been wildly successful where it’s been completed called the Beltline now going into less affluent parts of the city. Because of racism straight up in Atlanta the metro system is a joke and this should help in conjunction w said beltline continued redevelopment. But your point on methodology and execution is taken.

Part of the homogenization of Atlanta who helped a buckhead project get along which the mayor termed “the rodeo drive of Atlanta” as the city kills all its uniqueness to get to the McDonald’s version of a big city

https://www.georgiapolicy.org/issue/atl ... off-rails/

[MDlaxfan76]

We have plenty of labor to go around, especially for federal and state projects.....speed kills and so does redtape on each and every one of these projects. we just need them close the orders.

Really? Plenty of labor???

Well, if we free up the female portion of our potential workforce, that'll certainly help, but then again, that's a lot of caregivers employed too...more efficient though.

But no, the scale of what's in these two bills is way beyond our current available labor pool, both skilled and semi-skilled.

That's ok, absorption of immigration at a higher rate can deal with it...and that growth in younger population is a heck of lot of economic activity for all of us not directly engaged in these various types of projects. Younger population growth, including higher birth rates, is also very good for the economy...and taxes necessary to deal with the retired population's needs.

But more women working and more immigration, with a younger population, scare the bejesus out of the GOP power structure and many of their base who find these concepts disruptive to their prior assumptions of social structure and a threat to their electoral power.

Which is why I've been saying that the GOP needs to wake up and figure out how to better compete for this changing reality, with policies that appeal to, rather than turn off, much less piss off, these groups.

[youthathletics]

Not everything on the internet is true, in fact it likely boils down to union vs non-union skilled trades. My neighbor is high up in the Pipefitter union....they just had their highest apprenticeship applicant pool in history, similarly in the electrical apprenticeship. And those already journeyman, know they can make an easy six figure living on their own, without needing to even be hired by a business owner, many have flown the coup to go on their own.

Non-union skilled trades have also screwed themselves, hiring one or two top guys then backfilling with unskilled manpower...makes the books look good but is a disaster on the backend. Like buying a new house, then seeing the horrible craftsmanship that will cost you more down the road.

As I mentioned earlier.....none of the infrastructure plans move fast or demand a ton of labor immediately...it is trickle in employment by contractors already staffed to fulfill the work with low margins to keep the books moving. Knowing the feds, will eff up the design and change orders will get the margins back in the teens and 20's. Unlike Data centers which are often bid as cost-plus.

[Typical Lax Dad]

We have plenty of labor to go around, especially for federal and state projects.....speed kills and so does redtape on each and every one of these projects. we just need them close the orders.

Really? Plenty of labor???

Well, if we free up the female portion of our potential workforce, that'll certainly help, but then again, that's a lot of caregivers employed too...more efficient though.

But no, the scale of what's in these two bills is way beyond our current available labor pool, both skilled and semi-skilled.

That's ok, absorption of immigration at a higher rate can deal with it...and that growth in younger population is a heck of lot of economic activity for all of us not directly engaged in these various types of projects. Younger population growth, including higher birth rates, is also very good for the economy...and taxes necessary to deal with the retired population's needs.

But more women working and more immigration, with a younger population, scare the bejesus out of the GOP power structure and many of their base who find these concepts disruptive to their prior assumptions of social structure and a threat to their electoral power.

Which is why I've been saying that the GOP needs to wake up and figure out how to better compete for this changing reality, with policies that appeal to, rather than turn off, much less tick off, these groups.

https://news.conexpoconagg.com/news/hel ... 96.article

[MDlaxfan76]

Not everything on the internet is true, in fact it likely boils down to union vs non-union skilled trades. My neighbor is high up in the Pipefitter union....they just had their highest apprenticeship applicant pool in history, similarly in the electrical apprenticeship. And those already journeyman, know they can make an easy six figure living on their own, without needing to even be hired by a business owner, many have flown the coup to go on their own.

Non-union skilled trades have also screwed themselves, hiring one or two top guys then backfilling with unskilled manpower...makes the books look good but is a disaster on the backend. Like buying a new house, then seeing the horrible craftsmanship that will cost you more down the road.

As I mentioned earlier.....none of the infrastructure plans move fast or demand a ton of labor immediately...it is trickle in employment by contractors already staffed to fulfill the work with low margins to keep the books moving. Knowing the feds, will eff up the design and change orders will get the margins back in the teens and 20's. Unlike Data centers which are often bid as cost-plus.

no argument that there will be f-ups, nor that it won't take time for this to get steaming; it's just that we haven't seen anything remotely close to the sort of spending that'll occur over the next 5+ years. And that includes Eisenhower's transportation investments, and I'm speaking in % of population, not just raw #'s...massive infusion, not just on the bricks and mortar repairs and new construction, but across multiple fronts.

An awful lot of jobs, way more than our current labor force can meet without some sort of significant expansion and training. But that really isn't a serious problem as there's a heck of a lot of talent out there in the world, waiting to be trained, eager to work...some in our own underrepresented population, but particularly from immigration.

But I agree that we're not looking at a labor crisis tomorrow, just a very tight labor market.

Anecdotes: having my house painted...painter use to have 40 guys working for him, now 10, all but two 50+ yrs old...need tree work, can't get on schedule for over a month, was looking at doing an expansion of mother's patio home in Florida...got laughed at last winter when I suggested a summer start...

All saying they're struggling to find enough workers to meet demand. All paying their people more...

Bottomline, this is good news...but it's nevertheless going to be a challenge.

[Farfromgeneva]

Not everything on the internet is true, in fact it likely boils down to union vs non-union skilled trades. My neighbor is high up in the Pipefitter union....they just had their highest apprenticeship applicant pool in history, similarly in the electrical apprenticeship. And those already journeyman, know they can make an easy six figure living on their own, without needing to even be hired by a business owner, many have flown the coup to go on their own.

Non-union skilled trades have also screwed themselves, hiring one or two top guys then backfilling with unskilled manpower...makes the books look good but is a disaster on the backend. Like buying a new house, then seeing the horrible craftsmanship that will cost you more down the road.

As I mentioned earlier.....none of the infrastructure plans move fast or demand a ton of labor immediately...it is trickle in employment by contractors already staffed to fulfill the work with low margins to keep the books moving. Knowing the feds, will eff up the design and change orders will get the margins back in the teens and 20's. Unlike Data centers which are often bid as cost-plus.

My FILs company (he’s a 7-10% owner, 16 guys own 88% or the company) uses only IBEW labor and keeps roughly 1,000 folks employed year round on various projects. I know the pay scale and they most certainly don’t all make six figures. Takes min journeyman level to get there, possibly a rung lower with a ton of hours put in but that’s rare. This company does a ton of data centers, any municipal project including Mercedes Benz Dome, Phillips Arena, SunTrust Park, Marietta Courthouse, Hartsfield international expansion etc. they don’t mess around w tight margin project like multifamily but have an international division that has done things like build a micro grid for the navy in Hawaii and manage power plants for the military in Afghanistan. It’s very much a mix of cost plus and GMP type. Amazingly they have garbage technology and workflow and a moron who’s retiring as CFO and yet make high teens EBITDA margin on $400-$700mm. However, the margin comes from the ancillary services post construction like maintenance for hospitals etc and the big projects are more like 9-14%, call it 12-13%.

[Farfromgeneva]

Garbage website but here’s an example

https://www.inglett-stubbs.com/

[youthathletics]

Not everything on the internet is true, in fact it likely boils down to union vs non-union skilled trades. My neighbor is high up in the Pipefitter union....they just had their highest apprenticeship applicant pool in history, similarly in the electrical apprenticeship. And those already journeyman, know they can make an easy six figure living on their own, without needing to even be hired by a business owner, many have flown the coup to go on their own.

Non-union skilled trades have also screwed themselves, hiring one or two top guys then backfilling with unskilled manpower...makes the books look good but is a disaster on the backend. Like buying a new house, then seeing the horrible craftsmanship that will cost you more down the road.

As I mentioned earlier.....none of the infrastructure plans move fast or demand a ton of labor immediately...it is trickle in employment by contractors already staffed to fulfill the work with low margins to keep the books moving. Knowing the feds, will eff up the design and change orders will get the margins back in the teens and 20's. Unlike Data centers which are often bid as cost-plus.

My FILs company (he’s a 7-10% owner, 16 guys own 88% or the company) uses only IBEW labor and keeps roughly 1,000 folks employed year round on various projects. I know the pay scale and they most certainly don’t all make six figures. Takes min journeyman level to get there, possibly a rung lower with a ton of hours put in but that’s rare. This company does a ton of data centers, any municipal project including Mercedes Benz Dome, Phillips Arena, SunTrust Park, Marietta Courthouse, Hartsfield international expansion etc. they don’t mess around w tight margin project like multifamily but have an international division that has done things like build a micro grid for the navy in Hawaii and manage power plants for the military in Afghanistan. It’s very much a mix of cost plus and GMP type. Amazingly they have garbage technology and workflow and a moron who’s retiring as CFO and yet make high teens EBITDA margin on $400-$700mm. However, the margin comes from the ancillary services post construction like maintenance for hospitals etc and the big projects are more like 9-14%, call it 12-13%.

I suppose Atlanta is close to DMV in wage scale. I believe the base wage for a journeyman in DMV is ~$45/hr...$90k/yr with no OT or bonuses. Now with union electricians there is a loophole where you can hire an "A" Mechanic and have a few "R" mechanics work under you....for significantly lower wages. It is often how they are awarded projects with two different wage scales. Non-Union companies also love Davis-Bacon projects, they finally get to earn prevailing wage, with certified payroll.