THE 2019 Hopkins Lacrosse Fallout Shelter (44, we want more!)

[flalax22]

UNC has given up 9, 10, and 11 goals to a murderer's row of Mercer, Furman, and Havard the last three weeks so the Jays have no excuse not to put up 13+ on this team. The question is can this defense hold the Heels offense to fewer than that...signs are not positive. Albeit against weak competition, UNC has scored 50 goals in 3 games—almost 17 per game, right around what the Hopkins defense apparently likes to allow. They do not have a player close to Spencer's talent level but there's enough there—particularly at the midfield (Tanner Cook comes to mind) to give the Jays D some issues. Jays must "defend the knowns" and have a better plan for Cook than they did last year.

Was that not back to back years where Hopkins thought they could short stick Cloutier and Cook? Both did damage early and essentially that was the game.

Any knowledge on the Carolina face off unit? How Hopkins shows up at the face off x is going to be huge or in Trump language YUGE!

[molo]

I'm not sure about UNC's FOGO, but Hopkins found a good one last week. UNC lost their projected number one close dman to a knee injury, but in Rowlett they have a premier pole who has played both pole and close but is slated for duty at lsm full time this year from what I understand. Yes, the did lose Cloutier, but they start two freshman attackman, moving a former starting attackman out to midfield. The returning first midfielder are Cook, well know to Hopkins fans, Perry, a sharpshooter, and Anderson, probably the best pure athlete of the bunch. UNC has not yet notched a huge win, but they are 3-0, which means they have not lost to anyone they "should have" beaten, something Duke and Yale, for example, cannot claim to have accomplished. Are they as good as Loyola? No, but who (except maybe Penn State) is right now. Are they better than Towson? Maybe about on their level.

[johnnyonthegunpowder]

Heels might not have comparable talent, but their weak schedule has allowed them to build a confidence and and a team chemistry that Hopkins can't hold a candle to at this point in the season. If Hop gives them room to start feeling it, it could be Groundhog's day. Once again, Cook is looking like a real threat. He struggled to live up to his sophomore year potential, but he's looking solid now. Despite that, he still put up 5 points against Jays last year. I agree Anderson is the best pure athlete, but he's a very inconsistent finisher. I was surprise with some of his shot choices against Harvard. How Rowlett has not been named AA at this point is beyond me. He is a blast to watch. Like Russell for HP, Jacob Kelly is another fearless MIAA freshman who can work some magic.

Carolina or Towson???? I think Towson looks stronger, imo. Carolina though, if you let them feed on energy, they will do the steering. Grab the bull by the horns and I think you'll encourage a sloppiness from them relatively easily.

[Hawkeye]

Hopkins has opened as a 1.5 point favorite over UNC.

JHU -1.5, +105
UNC +1.5, -145

Moneyline: JHU -170, UNC +130
O/U: 23.5

[HopFan16]

Hopkins has opened as a 1.5 point favorite over UNC.

JHU -1.5, +105
UNC +1.5, -145

Moneyline: JHU -170, UNC +130
O/U: 23.5

Where are you seeing this? UNC is a 2.5 goal favorite according to Lax Vegas Lines. Seems crazy to me that unranked, 0-2 Hop would be favored on the road at #14 3-0 UNC—especially given recent history in the series. Doesn't mean they can't or won't win but the Jays have no business being favored.

Recent losses to UNC have tended to be about giving up too many goals—not about scoring too few. I think the Jays can put up a good number on the Heels this weekend. But it won't matter if the defense continues to be a sieve. Jays better come out hungry with a little bit of an edge or they could find themselves in a hole that's too big to climb out of.

[Hawkeye]

Hopkins has opened as a 1.5 point favorite over UNC.

JHU -1.5, +105
UNC +1.5, -145

Moneyline: JHU -170, UNC +130
O/U: 23.5

Where are you seeing this? UNC is a 2.5 goal favorite according to Lax Vegas Lines. Seems crazy to me that unranked, 0-2 Hop would be favored on the road at #14 3-0 UNC—especially given recent history in the series. Doesn't mean they can't or won't win but the Jays have no business being favored.

Recent losses to UNC have tended to be about giving up too many goals—not about scoring too few. I think the Jays can put up a good number on the Heels this weekend. But it won't matter if the defense continues to be a sieve. Jays better come out hungry with a little bit of an edge or they could find themselves in a hole that's too big to climb out of.

My quoted line is from 5Dimes, who has live action on games. This was where it opened yesterday. The payouts and money line have moved since then, but the spread is the same.

"Lax Vegas Lines" on Twitter are not official at all; there is no action on these lines. I tweeted at them earlier in the week that I expected that they had both the Hopkins/UNC and Army/SU lines backwards (and they did).

Given what lines on games represent (public perception of teams), I believe that they have the correct team favored. NOTE: This does not mean that I think Hopkins will necessarily win, only that I think "the public perception" of this game is that Hopkins should be a slight favorite.

Background: I have worked as the "unofficial bookie" for a high school football pick'em contest for around a decade now, so while I don't claim to be an expert on this stuff... Vegas doesn't often surprise me with their opening lines any more.

[steel_hop]

Hopkins has opened as a 1.5 point favorite over UNC.

JHU -1.5, +105
UNC +1.5, -145

Moneyline: JHU -170, UNC +130
O/U: 23.5

Where are you seeing this? UNC is a 2.5 goal favorite according to Lax Vegas Lines. Seems crazy to me that unranked, 0-2 Hop would be favored on the road at #14 3-0 UNC—especially given recent history in the series. Doesn't mean they can't or won't win but the Jays have no business being favored.

Recent losses to UNC have tended to be about giving up too many goals—not about scoring too few. I think the Jays can put up a good number on the Heels this weekend. But it won't matter if the defense continues to be a sieve. Jays better come out hungry with a little bit of an edge or they could find themselves in a hole that's too big to climb out of.

My quoted line is from 5Dimes, who has live action on games. This was where it opened yesterday. The payouts and money line have moved since then, but the spread is the same.

"Lax Vegas Lines" on Twitter are not official at all; there is no action on these lines. I tweeted at them earlier in the week that I expected that they had both the Hopkins/UNC and Army/SU lines backwards (and they did).

Given what lines on games represent (public perception of teams), I believe that they have the correct team favored. NOTE: This does not mean that I think Hopkins will necessarily win, only that I think "the public perception" of this game is that Hopkins should be a slight favorite.

Background: I have worked as the "unofficial bookie" for a high school football pick'em contest for around a decade now, so while I don't claim to be an expert on this stuff... Vegas doesn't often surprise me with their opening lines any more.

Correct. I doubt enough money would come down on one side or the other to appreciable move a line in a college lax game. If it did, there would certainly be some eyebrows raised by the PTB. I also doubt there is a ton of money going down on college lax games anyways, if it reached more than 5 figures I'd be shocked. Outside of the biggest gambling addicts there are the only people would be lax fans that would throw money down on a game.

Second, Hop16 fell for the oldest Vegas book trick there is. If the line seems wrong, then Vegas is telling you something. If this was an NFL game where the lines are tight then you would be stupid to not take Hopkins. It is the old playing away from the public. However, college football games numbers are looser and I'd imagine there is minimal calculations in a college lax game wherein it is probably the loosest type of number out there. Putting money down on a college lax game would be the equivalent of putting money down on a preseason NFL game and follows the old adage of "a fool and their money..."

[HopFan16]

Hopkins has opened as a 1.5 point favorite over UNC.

JHU -1.5, +105
UNC +1.5, -145

Moneyline: JHU -170, UNC +130
O/U: 23.5

Where are you seeing this? UNC is a 2.5 goal favorite according to Lax Vegas Lines. Seems crazy to me that unranked, 0-2 Hop would be favored on the road at #14 3-0 UNC—especially given recent history in the series. Doesn't mean they can't or won't win but the Jays have no business being favored.

Recent losses to UNC have tended to be about giving up too many goals—not about scoring too few. I think the Jays can put up a good number on the Heels this weekend. But it won't matter if the defense continues to be a sieve. Jays better come out hungry with a little bit of an edge or they could find themselves in a hole that's too big to climb out of.

My quoted line is from 5Dimes, who has live action on games. This was where it opened yesterday. The payouts and money line have moved since then, but the spread is the same.

"Lax Vegas Lines" on Twitter are not official at all; there is no action on these lines. I tweeted at them earlier in the week that I expected that they had both the Hopkins/UNC and Army/SU lines backwards (and they did).

Given what lines on games represent (public perception of teams), I believe that they have the correct team favored. NOTE: This does not mean that I think Hopkins will necessarily win, only that I think "the public perception" of this game is that Hopkins should be a slight favorite.

Background: I have worked as the "unofficial bookie" for a high school football pick'em contest for around a decade now, so while I don't claim to be an expert on this stuff... Vegas doesn't often surprise me with their opening lines any more.

Correct. I doubt enough money would come down on one side or the other to appreciable move a line in a college lax game. If it did, there would certainly be some eyebrows raised by the PTB. I also doubt there is a ton of money going down on college lax games anyways, if it reached more than 5 figures I'd be shocked. Outside of the biggest gambling addicts there are the only people would be lax fans that would throw money down on a game.

Second, Hop16 fell for the oldest Vegas book trick there is. If the line seems wrong, then Vegas is telling you something. If this was an NFL game where the lines are tight then you would be stupid to not take Hopkins. It is the old playing away from the public. However, college football games numbers are looser and I'd imagine there is minimal calculations in a college lax game wherein it is probably the loosest type of number out there. Putting money down on a college lax game would be the equivalent of putting money down on a preseason NFL game and follows the old adage of "a fool and their money..."

I didn't fall for any trick. I thought he had gotten the Lax Vegas Line wrong—I didn't realize there were actual public lines on this game you could bet on.

But if I were to wager my actual money, I'd still take the Heels +1.5 at home. Like you said, this is college lacrosse, not the NFL. I don't believe that "Vegas" can come up with a legit line for any game in this sport until it proves there is a long history of data to support it.

[Drcthru]

https://www.masseyratings.com/clax/ncaa ... t=20190219

JHU -1.5

[51percentcorn]

+2.5 - 1.5 it doesn't matter - if the starting ten for Hopkins can't get to 10 ground balls and Petro continues to send the same SSDMs out there the result will be 0-3. This may not be the sexiest high octane Carolina team but they always have athletes and those are two weaknesses sitting there waiting to be exploited by athletes.

[Hawkeye]

+2.5 - 1.5 it doesn't matter

It doesn't matter to some. To others, it does.

[Oak St]

Petro- please....pretty please with a cherry on top. Put those munchin middies on J.Kelly and N.Solomen. They’re freshman for cryin out loud !!!

[WOMBAT, Mod Emeritus]

BTW, one JHU team is 2-0. Big test vs Penn on Saturday.

[OCanada]

Remember setting odds is all about money flows.

Home field was traditionally considered to be worth 2-3 goals

[WOMBAT, Mod Emeritus]

Remember setting odds is all about money flows.

Home field was traditionally considered to be worth 2-3 goals

Yep, get half the action on each side, get the vig.

Are there more UNC bettors than Hopkins?

[laxbro11]

Petro- please....pretty please with a cherry on top. Put those munchin middies on J.Kelly and N.Solomen. They’re freshman for cryin out loud !!!

I dont know if you want to do that... Have seen them play and they are comparable to Epstein, but with a supporting cast,

[HopFan16]

Petro- please....pretty please with a cherry on top. Put those munchin middies on J.Kelly and N.Solomen. They’re freshman for cryin out loud !!!

I dont know if you want to do that... Have seen them play and they are comparable to Epstein, but with a supporting cast,

He was being sarcastic.

Would still rather put shorties on them than Cook. You have to short someone.

[Dunker]

Few of us probably bet lax because of its lack of availability. Lines may look soft, but they really are not. Hypo: Syracuse -1.5 goals versus Army. Most would take Cuse. However to get -1.5G you have to bet $175 to win $100. Conversely, if you take Army +1.5G. you would probably be able to bet $100 to win $130.
In NJ, none of the newly opened sports books offer lax betting yet as far as I can see.. I think William Hill at least will do so come the Tournament. They offer 4-6 college hockey games every Friday and Saturday as well as futures on who will win the Frozen Four.
Free betting hockey advice for addicts on this site to win The Frozen Four: St. Cloud is favorite at +450. They are by far the most talented team, but they have never won a NCAA hockey championship. Make a sizeable bet on St. Cloud. They will be the favorite in every game they play in the tournament. You can start hedging by taking the underdog in each game, a maximum of four games.

[Turnandrake]

Time to play the young guys.

[Hawkeye]

Spread has flipped on 5Dimes. JHU is now +1.5

JHU +1.5, -145
UNCCH -1.5, +105
Money line: JHU +100, UNCCH -140
O/U: 23.5