All Things Russia & Ukraine

[old salt]

Say what ? When did Belgium, Italy & the Netherlands get nucs ?

It's not the bases which deter Putin, it's the US forces who man them.

They got nukes when we gave them nukes.

Yes we're in charge of the weapons, but Putin is scared of both the bases and the US forces who man them. He's scared of the unified NATO front and its ability to impose heavy sanctions and whittle away his power in-country.

Which is why they have an active campaign to undermine NATO and why it's such a big deal that Trump is spewing such pro-Russian propaganda, like Montenegro and other BS. It's one thing to suggest NATO allies spend a little more, it's another to threaten to pull out and destabilize the west insofar as its power to control Russian pursestrings and other important items.

You always complain about Germany buying energy, but ignore the tactical advantage that creates for the west. Germany can buy energy from most of the world. Russia can't sell energy to most of the world. Germany is basically a dealer giving the first hit for free, but you don't see that.

Putin is actively trying to destabilize western alliances, and has done a good job of it. He'd much prefer to deal with each country unilaterally than against a multilateral front.

Does any of that seem to fit into what's going on in this country with our President? Seems to fit like a glove. And no, not like a bloody, dried out Isotoner over a base layer.

What Trump is doing (& wants to do) vis a vis Russia, is a legit foreign policy option.
Trump has done more to deter & contain Russian adventurism since he became President than any of his predecessors since Reagan.
You & the EUroburghers are whining about his rhetoric to divert from his legit critique of NATO free riders.

Yes Putin fears sanctions, but our EUroburgher allies refuse to apply them & complain & find workarounds to the sanctions we apply.
They just lobbied us to lift sanctions on Al.

Germany can buy energy from non-Russian sources, but they are electing not to do so. They are not building the infrastructure to do so. Instead they are building the infrastructure to become even more dependent on Russian NG, & forcing their western neighbors to follow because of their central location in the pipeline network. They (along with their hostage neighbors) are the primary financiers of Putin's military buildup.

But tell us more about the nucs we've given to Belgium, Italy & the Netherlands.

[Trinity]

https://www.politico.eu/article/nancy-p ... -the-boss/

Pelosi got this.

[old salt]

https://www.politico.eu/article/nancy-p ... -the-boss/

Pelosi got this.

Logan Act ?

[Trinity]

If he wants his ass kicked again.

[3rdPersonPlural]

Germany can buy energy from non-Russian sources, but they are electing not to do so. They are not building the infrastructure to do so. Instead they are building the infrastructure to become even more dependent on Russian NG, & forcing their western neighbors to follow because of their central location in the pipeline network. They (along with their hostage neighbors) are the primary financiers of Putin's military buildup.

Remember your college econ classes where the opposite of a monopoly, the monopsony, was discussed.

This is where there is but one BUYER for a good, and that buyer therefore exercises complete control over the resource.

If the pipeline to Germany distributes more than 75% of Russias natural gas, it owns a tacit monopsony. Russia can only export gas through a pipeline (no warm water ports), and can only afford to build one. Germany got the nod. Now Germany can find ways to make the gas from that pipeline non-strategic (gas ports so they can import from US if necessary will do it) and Russia is a captive economy.

Germany is cornering a tiger, sure, but they're playing the long game. Russian gas will outlast Putin......

[old salt]

Germany can buy energy from non-Russian sources, but they are electing not to do so. They are not building the infrastructure to do so. Instead they are building the infrastructure to become even more dependent on Russian NG, & forcing their western neighbors to follow because of their central location in the pipeline network. They (along with their hostage neighbors) are the primary financiers of Putin's military buildup.

Remember your college econ classes where the opposite of a monopoly, the monopsony, was discussed.

This is where there is but one BUYER for a good, and that buyer therefore exercises complete control over the resource.

If the pipeline to Germany distributes more than 75% of Russias natural gas, it owns a tacit monopsony. Russia can only export gas through a pipeline (no warm water ports), and can only afford to build one. Germany got the nod. Now Germany can find ways to make the gas from that pipeline non-strategic (gas ports so they can import from US if necessary will do it) and Russia is a captive economy.

Germany is cornering a tiger, sure, but they're playing the long game. Russian gas will outlast Putin......

They can't import LNG from the US, or anywhere else, unless they build the terminals & connect them to their pipeline networks.
That's a project that takes years.
Every EU nation is a potential buyer & they don't all want to be part of a German monopsony.
There's already a Nordstream 1 & multiple pipelines from Russia through Ukraine & other E Euro nations.
This is a way for Russia to dodge transit fees & squeeze Ukraine.

[MDlaxfan76]

Germany can buy energy from non-Russian sources, but they are electing not to do so. They are not building the infrastructure to do so. Instead they are building the infrastructure to become even more dependent on Russian NG, & forcing their western neighbors to follow because of their central location in the pipeline network. They (along with their hostage neighbors) are the primary financiers of Putin's military buildup.

Remember your college econ classes where the opposite of a monopoly, the monopsony, was discussed.

This is where there is but one BUYER for a good, and that buyer therefore exercises complete control over the resource.

If the pipeline to Germany distributes more than 75% of Russias natural gas, it owns a tacit monopsony. Russia can only export gas through a pipeline (no warm water ports), and can only afford to build one. Germany got the nod. Now Germany can find ways to make the gas from that pipeline non-strategic (gas ports so they can import from US if necessary will do it) and Russia is a captive economy.

Germany is cornering a tiger, sure, but they're playing the long game. Russian gas will outlast Putin......

Excellent point.
Don't hear that term too often around the water cooler or even CNBC.

But don't assume your audience actually was awake in that Econ class.

[old salt]

Germany can buy energy from non-Russian sources, but they are electing not to do so. They are not building the infrastructure to do so. Instead they are building the infrastructure to become even more dependent on Russian NG, & forcing their western neighbors to follow because of their central location in the pipeline network. They (along with their hostage neighbors) are the primary financiers of Putin's military buildup.

Remember your college econ classes where the opposite of a monopoly, the monopsony, was discussed.

This is where there is but one BUYER for a good, and that buyer therefore exercises complete control over the resource.

If the pipeline to Germany distributes more than 75% of Russias natural gas, it owns a tacit monopsony. Russia can only export gas through a pipeline (no warm water ports), and can only afford to build one. Germany got the nod. Now Germany can find ways to make the gas from that pipeline non-strategic (gas ports so they can import from US if necessary will do it) and Russia is a captive economy.

Germany is cornering a tiger, sure, but they're playing the long game. Russian gas will outlast Putin......

Excellent point.
Don't hear that term too often around the water cooler or even CNBC.

But don't assume your audience actually was awake in that Econ class.

Aren't you going to accuse him of being a Russian bot ?

[a fan]

Germany can buy energy from non-Russian sources, but they are electing not to do so. They are not building the infrastructure to do so. Instead they are building the infrastructure to become even more dependent on Russian NG, & forcing their western neighbors to follow because of their central location in the pipeline network. They (along with their hostage neighbors) are the primary financiers of Putin's military buildup.

Remember your college econ classes where the opposite of a monopoly, the monopsony, was discussed.

This is where there is but one BUYER for a good, and that buyer therefore exercises complete control over the resource.

If the pipeline to Germany distributes more than 75% of Russias natural gas, it owns a tacit monopsony. Russia can only export gas through a pipeline (no warm water ports), and can only afford to build one. Germany got the nod. Now Germany can find ways to make the gas from that pipeline non-strategic (gas ports so they can import from US if necessary will do it) and Russia is a captive economy.

Germany is cornering a tiger, sure, but they're playing the long game. Russian gas will outlast Putin......

Another point is that there are two ends to that pipeline, and either side can shut it off any time they choose, and render the whole operation pointless.

[holmes435]

Germany can buy energy from non-Russian sources, but they are electing not to do so. They are not building the infrastructure to do so. Instead they are building the infrastructure to become even more dependent on Russian NG, & forcing their western neighbors to follow because of their central location in the pipeline network. They (along with their hostage neighbors) are the primary financiers of Putin's military buildup.

Remember your college econ classes where the opposite of a monopoly, the monopsony, was discussed.

This is where there is but one BUYER for a good, and that buyer therefore exercises complete control over the resource.

If the pipeline to Germany distributes more than 75% of Russias natural gas, it owns a tacit monopsony. Russia can only export gas through a pipeline (no warm water ports), and can only afford to build one. Germany got the nod. Now Germany can find ways to make the gas from that pipeline non-strategic (gas ports so they can import from US if necessary will do it) and Russia is a captive economy.

Germany is cornering a tiger, sure, but they're playing the long game. Russian gas will outlast Putin......

Another point is that there are two ends to that pipeline, and either side can shut it off any time they choose, and render the whole operation pointless.

Yes, that's the main question, and ultimately it comes down to this scenario at the time of shutoff: Does Russia need money more than Germany needs Russian LNG? Right now Germany has the upper hand.

[jhu72]

Germany can buy energy from non-Russian sources, but they are electing not to do so. They are not building the infrastructure to do so. Instead they are building the infrastructure to become even more dependent on Russian NG, & forcing their western neighbors to follow because of their central location in the pipeline network. They (along with their hostage neighbors) are the primary financiers of Putin's military buildup.

Remember your college econ classes where the opposite of a monopoly, the monopsony, was discussed.

This is where there is but one BUYER for a good, and that buyer therefore exercises complete control over the resource.

If the pipeline to Germany distributes more than 75% of Russias natural gas, it owns a tacit monopsony. Russia can only export gas through a pipeline (no warm water ports), and can only afford to build one. Germany got the nod. Now Germany can find ways to make the gas from that pipeline non-strategic (gas ports so they can import from US if necessary will do it) and Russia is a captive economy.

Germany is cornering a tiger, sure, but they're playing the long game. Russian gas will outlast Putin......

++++ Someone gets it!

[SCLaxAttack]

Hahahaha! For the life of me I have no idea how some of you don’t see the inherent danger in an important ally having a strong dependence on an historical enemy for its power source.

Think western U.S. water wars, except there’s little to no historical cooperation between the NG parties, and the state with its hand on the spigot has never really played nice with its neighbors.

To use another analogy, think how much control a heroin supplier with a near 100% market share could have on the people of an addicted community should they decide to shut down distribution; especially if those users couldn’t quickly line up another source of the drug.

Yeah, yeah - Russia needs the money. That’s only the current situation.

You guys are (correctly) worried about Russia’s ability to influence elections but, along with Europe, are willing to let Russia become a predominant supplier to Europe’s energy needs. It boggles my mind.

[a fan]

To use another analogy, think how much control a heroin supplier with a near 100% market share could have on the people of an addicted community should they decide to shut down distribution; especially if those users couldn’t quickly line up another source of the drug.

Right. This is the line of thinking that has led to our fake Trade War with China.

You're analogy isn't finished here.....all you want to do is look a the heroin users.

Tell me: how is the heroin dealer supposed to do things like eat and pay rent if he stops selling?

Move in with mom and dad?

[SCLaxAttack]

That’s short term thinking on your part, aFan, especially once the euros start pouring in when the NG starts flowing. What Putin and his cronies don’t spend can be banked.

Russia has a history of being patient. Remember when Stalin sacrificed millions of his citizens waiting for winter to fall on the Nazis?

[a fan]

Well, you and old salt have me sold. We should pressure our allies to not put the pipe in.

Remind me again: who's responsible for making that happen? And why hasn't this already been accomplished?

[old salt]

Well, you and old salt have me sold. We should pressure our allies to not put the pipe in.

Remind me again: who's responsible for making that happen? And why hasn't this already been accomplished?

...not for lack of pressure from Trump.

I recommend this lengthy but entertaining report on Trump - Merkel & US - German relations :
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2018 ... and-europe

Here's a more recent & specific threat :
https://www.euractiv.com/section/global ... sh-stream/

Trump's making it an issue in US - German trade talks :
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... -president

Trump is expected to stop short of sanctions on Nordstream 2, rather than blowing up the alliance.
This article makes the point about how US domestic political Russophobia constricts US diplomatic options :
https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/ ... 727f1f7a24

Trump's playing hardball with the Germans,
...something they are not accustomed to from their other weaker allies,
...or from Trump's predecessor, who'd rather be liked than feared.
Trump's tough love will make NATO stronger in the long run, ...unless the EUroburghers can wait him out.

[a fan]

Trump's playing hardball with the Germans,
...something they are not accustomed to from their other weaker allies,
...or from Trump's predecessor, who'd rather be liked than feared.

And how's it working? It's not.....remember, YOU are the one who thinks Putin is winning with every move. It's Trumps responsibility to stop him. He's failing, according to you. Sorry.

Here's a fine example of how well Trump's tough guy act, that always makes Republican voters tingly all over, is working....

Headline:Allies decline request to stay in Syria after U.S. troops withdraw


Oh yeah, NATO is stronger than ever, alright. You've convinced me.

You're doing everything in your power to dance around the obvious fact that Trump is a lousy diplomat, and the world's leaders can't stand him, and it is costing us overseas. Meanwhile, you can't resist hitting Obama, because of course the D guy was bad, and the R guy is super awesome.

French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian said last week that he was mystified by Trump’s policy. On Tuesday, British Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt said that “there is no prospect of British forces replacing the Americans” in Syria.


Oh yeah, that whole "feared' thing is working like a charm. Breathtaking to watch such statesmanship.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/na ... bf795bcd0c

[old salt]

Trump's playing hardball with the Germans,
...something they are not accustomed to from their other weaker allies,
...or from Trump's predecessor, who'd rather be liked than feared.

And how's it working? It's not.....remember, YOU are the one who thinks Putin is winning with every move. It's Trumps responsibility to stop him. He's failing, according to you. Sorry.

Here's a fine example of how well Trump's tough guy act, that always makes Republican voters tingly all over, is working....

Headline:Allies decline request to stay in Syria after U.S. troops withdraw


Oh yeah, NATO is stronger than ever, alright. You've convinced me.

You're doing everything in your power to dance around the obvious fact that Trump is a lousy diplomat, and the world's leaders can't stand him, and it is costing us overseas. Meanwhile, you can't resist hitting Obama, because of course the D guy was bad, and the R guy is super awesome.

French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian said last week that he was mystified by Trump’s policy. On Tuesday, British Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt said that “there is no prospect of British forces replacing the Americans” in Syria.


Oh yeah, that whole "feared' thing is working like a charm. Breathtaking to watch such statesmanship.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/na ... bf795bcd0c

Big Surprise -- Just proves Trump's point. The EUros can't be counted on. They're unable & unwilling to operate independent of US support.
How many French & Brit troops were there & what were they doing ? They've sent a small cadre of Special Forces to work with their US counterparts & call in air strikes from their own air forces. The Turks have the biggest non-US army in NATO but they don't even have the ISR capability to patrol a 20 mile buffer zone on their own border.

The fighting in Syria is over. The US/French/Brit Special Forces are pulling out. Now it's nation building & peace keeping. Driving around keeping the Turks from killing the Kurds & trying to avoid IEDs & suicide bombers. Non kinetic stuff that the Germans should be able to do, but aren't even able to do any more -- they've allowed their forces to atrophy to just a hollow homeguard force. Trump is forcing the rest of NATO to confront their limitations from 3 decades of under-investing & free riding.

I didn't say NATO's stronger than ever. I said Trump's tough love will make them stronger in the long run.
I've pointed out that the US is doing more within NATO, in Europe, than we have at any time since the Cold War.
Our increase has not been matched uniformly across the alliance.

Nobody wants to hang around Syria, have troops blown up as peace keepers, & take responsibility for rebuilding the country.
...Trump included. We're not picking up this tab.

[Trinity]

https://spectator.us/russia-kompromat-john-bolton/

What a crew.

[old salt]

https://spectator.us/russia-kompromat-john-bolton/

What a crew.

Such information today seems merely incongruous though, if true, might go some way to explaining Bolton’s mustache.

....