The Nation's Financial Condition

[seacoaster]

There's a legitmate debate on if and level of disincentive of transfers, but for me Krugman gave up his authority as an economist a long time ago. One of the examples of why the Nobel Prize in Economics is fraudulent (I'm sympatico w Taleb on this and include Robert Merton and Mark Rubenstien as well).

I do understand that Krugman is no middle of road guy. But the jobs numbers issue is not the dumbed-down narrative we are hearing from the GOP. The issue is very complicated and laden with variable that most of us can't get our heads around. But I do think the column us accurate about who Republicans are.

[Farfromgeneva]

Well whenever any politician runs out with a macroecnomic datapoint I can almost 100% predict what their statement will be, so I'm ahead of you on the republican (my still) side and how specious it is. Especially anytime they took a short term view on something that always has some latency with respect to its influence on society.

[SCLaxAttack]

Gas at a 7 year high.

Gee, great job Joe Biden! That took what three months? Impressive!

I just can’t put my finger on why Americans hate Democrat policies. Something about not being able to save money; providing adequately for families; having good jobs.

Good luck in 2022!!!

I honestly want Democrats to pass every crap law they can the next year and a half. Literally go full socialist. Do it!!!

Speaker McCarthy, c’mon down!!

So Joe hacked Colonial Pipeline?

The lefty brain deadishness across America is something to behold.

Uh, when was the ransomware attack again?

Can you read a chart? (I’m concerned the answer is not exactly)


D107FB6D-232B-4CAB-8637-78FA60B60AD4.gif

Let’s not forget how Biden turned off the heat to Texas, thereby causing all those refinery breakdowns.

Evil genius.

Troll.

[seacoaster]

Imagine wanting Kevin McCarthy -- the emptiest suit in politics in our lifetimes -- to be the Speaker. Boycott Stupid.

[MDlaxfan76]

You are not intelligent based on your presentation here. If it’s an Act it’s lack of any thoughtfulness because when I watch Calvin Candy I’m aware it’s an actor playing a role, if it’s not an act...

Just don’t get it. I guess that’s why you use the clown emoji so often to let everyone know your life and profession.

The words you use in reply don’t even follow macroeconomic or english language logic. Inflation is measured by a basket of prices chucklehead. Bitcoin, an asset, is 5x, lumber is well over a double. Those tax cuts and Covid reflect the dollar and price changes I your dummy chart probably pulled from from an Alex Jones website.

Inflation isn’t one commodity.

And my answer didn’t say trump but you stated Biden was responsible for this unsolicited so it was actually you making the specious claim out of stupidity or dishonesty,take your pick. I’m talking about the actions and market events (as well as a major exogenous one) that impacted this. You inferred the person who had more involvement in this phenomena then the one you explicitly stated is responsibility. Keep on being dishonest.

Sheesh, the oil market went so belly up owners had to pay others to take their oil as it was costing more to transport or store it than anyone was willing to pay.

My wife joined the board of a family holding company last spring, family dough came from Standard Oil...then first to create self serve pumps...still significant oil and gas exploration and tanker business...it was scary times...it'll be interesting to see how that business evolves over the years, but they're certainly breathing a bit easier right now.

Nah, that belly up turn wasn't Trump, it was the pandemic. And now we're going in the opposite direction with world demand. But what a lot of hooey that a pipeline that's never been built being canceled would cause a spike in prices. Absolutely so dumb that the only explanation becomes "dishonest".

But hey, trolls troll.

[Peter Brown]

You are not intelligent based on your presentation here. If it’s an Act it’s lack of any thoughtfulness because when I watch Calvin Candy I’m aware it’s an actor playing a role, if it’s not an act...

Just don’t get it. I guess that’s why you use the clown emoji so often to let everyone know your life and profession.

The words you use in reply don’t even follow macroeconomic or english language logic. Inflation is measured by a basket of prices chucklehead. Bitcoin, an asset, is 5x, lumber is well over a double. Those tax cuts and Covid reflect the dollar and price changes I your dummy chart probably pulled from from an Alex Jones website.

Inflation isn’t one commodity.

And my answer didn’t say trump but you stated Biden was responsible for this unsolicited so it was actually you making the specious claim out of stupidity or dishonesty,take your pick. I’m talking about the actions and market events (as well as a major exogenous one) that impacted this. You inferred the person who had more involvement in this phenomena then the one you explicitly stated is responsibility. Keep on being dishonest.

Sheesh, the oil market went so belly up owners had to pay others to take their oil as it was costing more to transport or store it than anyone was willing to pay.

My wife joined the board of a family holding company last spring, family dough came from Standard Oil...then first to create self serve pumps...still significant oil and gas exploration and tanker business...it was scary times...it'll be interesting to see how that business evolves over the years, but they're certainly breathing a bit easier right now.

Nah, that belly up turn wasn't Trump, it was the pandemic. And now we're going in the opposite direction with world demand. But what a lot of hooey that a pipeline that's never been built being canceled would cause a spike in prices. Absolutely so dumb that the only explanation becomes "dishonest".

But hey, trolls troll.

Other MDLax thought:

Unemployment is rising, gas lines and shortages are increasing, inflation is skyrocketing, the Middle East is burning, and America’s enemies across the globe are aggressively threatening us and our allies, but at least there are no mean tweets. That’s the important thing.

[Peter Brown]

Imagine wanting Kevin McCarthy -- the emptiest suit in politics in our lifetimes -- to be the Speaker. Boycott Stupid.

Imagine having Tlaib, AOC, Cory Bush, and Jayapal on your squad, and then saying what seacoaster wrote.

[lagerhead]

There's a legitmate debate on if and level of disincentive of transfers, but for me Krugman gave up his authority as an economist a long time ago. One of the examples of why the Nobel Prize in Economics is fraudulent (I'm sympatico w Taleb on this and include Robert Merton and Mark Rubenstien as well).

I do understand that Krugman is no middle of road guy. But the jobs numbers issue is not the dumbed-down narrative we are hearing from the GOP. The issue is very complicated and laden with variable that most of us can't get our heads around. But I do think the column us accurate about who Republicans are.

Please tell us about the complexities and variables.

[lagerhead]

You are not intelligent based on your presentation here. If it’s an Act it’s lack of any thoughtfulness because when I watch Calvin Candy I’m aware it’s an actor playing a role, if it’s not an act...

Just don’t get it. I guess that’s why you use the clown emoji so often to let everyone know your life and profession.

The words you use in reply don’t even follow macroeconomic or english language logic. Inflation is measured by a basket of prices chucklehead. Bitcoin, an asset, is 5x, lumber is well over a double. Those tax cuts and Covid reflect the dollar and price changes I your dummy chart probably pulled from from an Alex Jones website.

Inflation isn’t one commodity.

And my answer didn’t say trump but you stated Biden was responsible for this unsolicited so it was actually you making the specious claim out of stupidity or dishonesty,take your pick. I’m talking about the actions and market events (as well as a major exogenous one) that impacted this. You inferred the person who had more involvement in this phenomena then the one you explicitly stated is responsibility. Keep on being dishonest.

Sheesh, the oil market went so belly up owners had to pay others to take their oil as it was costing more to transport or store it than anyone was willing to pay.

My wife joined the board of a family holding company last spring, family dough came from Standard Oil...then first to create self serve pumps...still significant oil and gas exploration and tanker business...it was scary times...it'll be interesting to see how that business evolves over the years, but they're certainly breathing a bit easier right now.

Nah, that belly up turn wasn't Trump, it was the pandemic. And now we're going in the opposite direction with world demand. But what a lot of hooey that a pipeline that's never been built being canceled would cause a spike in prices. Absolutely so dumb that the only explanation becomes "dishonest".

But hey, trolls troll.

Paper traded negative no oil changed hands at negative prices. Where were futures the next day? Trading commodities futures is trading paper, real conversion to cash prices has gone away. Look at the number of energy, agriculture, sugar, soy derivatives tied to futures contracts. CME publishes actual deliveries at the end of each month you would be surprised how little delivery goes through your price regulated transparent pricing mechanism.

[Peter Brown]

CPI up 4.2% in one month.

Biggest jump in 13 years. Maybe we’ll go after Jimmy Carter’s inflation record!

$4 trillion in spending for AOC’s pet projects might not have been that bright.

Wow this Biden presidency is going great! Add in Israeli war and of course requiring young girls to compete against trans women in sport, and paying lazy libs to not work, it’s simply hard to feel this good.

November 2022 can not come fast enough. Going to be a blowout of incredible proportions. At least we don’t have any mean tweets.

[Kinduv]

CPI up 4.2% in one month.

Biggest jump in 13 years. Maybe we’ll go after Jimmy Carter’s inflation record!

$4 trillion in spending for AOC’s pet projects might not have been that bright.

Wow this Biden presidency is going great! Add in Israeli war and of course requiring young girls to compete against trans women in sport, and paying lazy libs to not work, it’s simply hard to feel this good.

November 2022 can not come fast enough. Going to be a blowout of incredible proportions. At least we don’t have any mean tweets.

PBr0wn!!!!! YES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Mean tweets! Waaaaaaaah! Stupid 1ibs,

[Farfromgeneva]

You are not intelligent based on your presentation here. If it’s an Act it’s lack of any thoughtfulness because when I watch Calvin Candy I’m aware it’s an actor playing a role, if it’s not an act...

Just don’t get it. I guess that’s why you use the clown emoji so often to let everyone know your life and profession.

The words you use in reply don’t even follow macroeconomic or english language logic. Inflation is measured by a basket of prices chucklehead. Bitcoin, an asset, is 5x, lumber is well over a double. Those tax cuts and Covid reflect the dollar and price changes I your dummy chart probably pulled from from an Alex Jones website.

Inflation isn’t one commodity.

And my answer didn’t say trump but you stated Biden was responsible for this unsolicited so it was actually you making the specious claim out of stupidity or dishonesty,take your pick. I’m talking about the actions and market events (as well as a major exogenous one) that impacted this. You inferred the person who had more involvement in this phenomena then the one you explicitly stated is responsibility. Keep on being dishonest.

Sheesh, the oil market went so belly up owners had to pay others to take their oil as it was costing more to transport or store it than anyone was willing to pay.

My wife joined the board of a family holding company last spring, family dough came from Standard Oil...then first to create self serve pumps...still significant oil and gas exploration and tanker business...it was scary times...it'll be interesting to see how that business evolves over the years, but they're certainly breathing a bit easier right now.

Nah, that belly up turn wasn't Trump, it was the pandemic. And now we're going in the opposite direction with world demand. But what a lot of hooey that a pipeline that's never been built being canceled would cause a spike in prices. Absolutely so dumb that the only explanation becomes "dishonest".

But hey, trolls troll.

Paper traded negative no oil changed hands at negative prices. Where were futures the next day? Trading commodities futures is trading paper, real conversion to cash prices has gone away. Look at the number of energy, agriculture, sugar, soy derivatives tied to futures contracts. CME publishes actual deliveries at the end of each month you would be surprised how little delivery goes through your price regulated transparent pricing mechanism.

Well you really couldn’t have physical settlement as there was nowhere to store it which is why the price mechanism was negative. Literally had barges sitting in the water. And the various market makers on the street have generally been forced to divest from their storage. But this doesn’t mean the price mechanism doesn’t work in commodity futures. Having invested in or traded other esoteric synthetic instruments I’m quite familiar with markers where the dedicate pricing diverges from cash but this isn’t one of them yet (such as bespoke HY CDO basically a cash flow contract supported by the theoretical payments made to a A or BBB rated tranche using 50-100 crappy corporate names or a tri party ethanol hedge created by Goldman in attempt to hedge the unhedhedgeable risk in corn based ethanol production which is the complete lack of correlation between corn and Nat gas or oil prices-over 30yrs its .02...)

So if you are suggesting the cash price was real and futures aren’t id reject that pretty fast. Some counterparty was transacting On those contracts.

"WTI is special in a way because it's so tightly connected to physical oil," said Derrick Morgan, senior vice president of American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers

And I’m not sure your point when one clown puts up a chart as evidence of something about our president gong back two years and ignoring the reality in the markets that forced oil down and the rebound is natural. Unless it’s a point of diversion as a tactic from the original worse than specious argument.

When cash was in the 30s and 40s I know for a fact the integrated a we’re buying smaller E&P debt at less than 50 cents on the dollar. My new business was in extended conversations with a decent sized Gulf region bank to manage about $2Bn of non performing assets (loans) a majority of which were energy sector. Would’ve been a nice piece of business but unfortunately they decided to dump the worst half billion of that debt for 52-55 cents on the dollar to Oaktree. Bottom line is anyone showing a chart of gas or oil prices starting in 2019 and the dip and rise and suggesting it’s the president and not acknowledging this is dishonest or not informed enough to make these arguments.

Oh and the dollar chart overlayed in the last year...most contracts are in what currency still?

[D3 Fan]

Oh and the dollar chart overlayed in the last year...most contracts are in what currency still?

Do you see a day when a foreign currency might come along and rival/bypass the dollar? We hear peeps and sounds here and there but is there anything of substance to it? If China's Belt Road Initiative starts to encompass a large enough swath of people, geography and products, might that bloc seriously consider the need to keep the dollar from being a major player in that universe? If so, what are the ramifications under such a scenario?

[Farfromgeneva]

Oh and the dollar chart overlayed in the last year...most contracts are in what currency still?

Do you see a day when a foreign currency might come along and rival/bypass the dollar? We hear peeps and sounds here and there but is there anything of substance to it? If China's Belt Road Initiative starts to encompass a large enough swath of people, geography and products, might that bloc seriously consider the need to keep the dollar from being a major player in that universe? If so, what are the ramifications under such a scenario?

Rome burned and established christianity as a dominant religion because of it (City of God - Augustine).

Saddam tried to start having Iraq’s contracts priced in Euros the last year or so before we had him in a spider hole and his people gave him what he deserved in a street parade. It didn’t catch on because the Euro is a structural joke splitting monetary and fiscal the way they have codified it (we function increasingly like this with the Fed acting often in contradiction to our fiscal “policy”).

Not to be short with that answer but yes we should have our head on a swivel like a inside linebacker dropping back into coverage. Why wouldn’t the rest of the world want to take our sovereign fiat currency status away from us? It has more power than guns despite what some of our older bellicose folks might think. And while I don’t think we are directionally incorrect I understand the rest of the world has to follow our lead because they all own dollars. It won’t be the guy your focused on (China, Japan in the 80s) it’s going to be the thing we don’t see coming, the black swan.

Here’s the thing, the cleanest dirty shirt is good enough to go along within this domain. Meaning the concept of a reserve currency is basically your “go money bag” (we should probably all have one). How can a country, unless you believe the laughable concept they push of managed capitalism, keep their “LaGuardia Spread“ (https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.vibe.c ... 35732/amp/) money, in a currency where individual property rights don’t exist fundamentally? This isn’t insignificant and seems to be ignored in these discussions often.

China is our largest creditor. There’s no mechanism for them to promote the Yuan against the dollar without them ending up Like a victim in A Saw movie.

Crypto as goat happens when we have no borders in the world anymore...

[jhu72]

Oh and the dollar chart overlayed in the last year...most contracts are in what currency still?

Do you see a day when a foreign currency might come along and rival/bypass the dollar? We hear peeps and sounds here and there but is there anything of substance to it? If China's Belt Road Initiative starts to encompass a large enough swath of people, geography and products, might that bloc seriously consider the need to keep the dollar from being a major player in that universe? If so, what are the ramifications under such a scenario?

... if we keep isolating ourselves -- you betcha the world will find a new reserve currency. Pulling out of TPA was a gift to the Chinese.

[Farfromgeneva]

It’s about what currency is the most resilient if the world was burning down? Our prior leader did a lot to destroy the confidence in the institutions which support or rights and freedoms which underpin fiat currencies. Monetizing debt is a other path to suicide.

But it’s much less about “so I like that countries politics” and most about “if I need to use something in exchange for things I need for survival whose money do I want to keep tucked away for that 100yr flood emergency?” And in that context who you got?

But we can ruin it for ourselves by destroying the abstract elements that support this status.

[jhu72]

It’s about what currency is the most resilient if the world was burning down? Our prior leader did a lot to destroy the confidence in the institutions which support or rights and freedoms which underpin fiat currencies. Monetizing debt is a other path to suicide.

But it’s much less about “so I like that countries politics” and most about “if I need to use something in exchange for things I need for survival whose money do I want to keep tucked away for that 100yr flood emergency?” And in that context who you got?

But we can ruin it for ourselves by destroying the abstract elements that support this status.

... I don't see the Chinese as an immediate threat, with their penchant for adjusting its value, but they definitely have a wet dream to become the world's reserve currency. If the Europeans could get their sh*t together, they would be more of a threat - short to mid-term they are probably the biggest threat, but they have their own problems.

[Farfromgeneva]

They would have to fully unify not just EMU but governments and that will never happen. European mismanagement is the joke of the 20th and 21st centuries.

The lack of transparency, opacity and (again) lack of codified property rights (and independent courts that have the strength to support these rights) are too much for China and so for them to have it they’d have to flip their entire political organization upside down.

*note how our former president created or exacerbated the conditions that would lead us to be more at risk of losing such status. As bad as he was overall this is the lasting legacy in most terrified of.

[lagerhead]

You are not intelligent based on your presentation here. If it’s an Act it’s lack of any thoughtfulness because when I watch Calvin Candy I’m aware it’s an actor playing a role, if it’s not an act...

Just don’t get it. I guess that’s why you use the clown emoji so often to let everyone know your life and profession.

The words you use in reply don’t even follow macroeconomic or english language logic. Inflation is measured by a basket of prices chucklehead. Bitcoin, an asset, is 5x, lumber is well over a double. Those tax cuts and Covid reflect the dollar and price changes I your dummy chart probably pulled from from an Alex Jones website.

Inflation isn’t one commodity.

And my answer didn’t say trump but you stated Biden was responsible for this unsolicited so it was actually you making the specious claim out of stupidity or dishonesty,take your pick. I’m talking about the actions and market events (as well as a major exogenous one) that impacted this. You inferred the person who had more involvement in this phenomena then the one you explicitly stated is responsibility. Keep on being dishonest.

Sheesh, the oil market went so belly up owners had to pay others to take their oil as it was costing more to transport or store it than anyone was willing to pay.

My wife joined the board of a family holding company last spring, family dough came from Standard Oil...then first to create self serve pumps...still significant oil and gas exploration and tanker business...it was scary times...it'll be interesting to see how that business evolves over the years, but they're certainly breathing a bit easier right now.

Nah, that belly up turn wasn't Trump, it was the pandemic. And now we're going in the opposite direction with world demand. But what a lot of hooey that a pipeline that's never been built being canceled would cause a spike in prices. Absolutely so dumb that the only explanation becomes "dishonest".

But hey, trolls troll.

Paper traded negative no oil changed hands at negative prices. Where were futures the next day? Trading commodities futures is trading paper, real conversion to cash prices has gone away. Look at the number of energy, agriculture, sugar, soy derivatives tied to futures contracts. CME publishes actual deliveries at the end of each month you would be surprised how little delivery goes through your price regulated transparent pricing mechanism.

Well you really couldn’t have physical settlement as there was nowhere to store it which is why the price mechanism was negative. Literally had barges sitting in the water. And the various market makers on the street have generally been forced to divest from their storage. But this doesn’t mean the price mechanism doesn’t work in commodity futures. Having invested in or traded other esoteric synthetic instruments I’m quite familiar with markers where the dedicate pricing diverges from cash but this isn’t one of them yet (such as bespoke HY CDO basically a cash flow contract supported by the theoretical payments made to a A or BBB rated tranche using 50-100 crappy corporate names or a tri party ethanol hedge created by Goldman in attempt to hedge the unhedhedgeable risk in corn based ethanol production which is the complete lack of correlation between corn and Nat gas or oil prices-over 30yrs its .02...)

So if you are suggesting the cash price was real and futures aren’t id reject that pretty fast. Some counterparty was transacting On those contracts.

"WTI is special in a way because it's so tightly connected to physical oil," said Derrick Morgan, senior vice president of American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers

And I’m not sure your point when one clown puts up a chart as evidence of something about our president gong back two years and ignoring the reality in the markets that forced oil down and the rebound is natural. Unless it’s a point of diversion as a tactic from the original worse than specious argument.

When cash was in the 30s and 40s I know for a fact the integrated a we’re buying smaller E&P debt at less than 50 cents on the dollar. My new business was in extended conversations with a decent sized Gulf region bank to manage about $2Bn of non performing assets (loans) a majority of which were energy sector. Would’ve been a nice piece of business but unfortunately they decided to dump the worst half billion of that debt for 52-55 cents on the dollar to Oaktree. Bottom line is anyone showing a chart of gas or oil prices starting in 2019 and the dip and rise and suggesting it’s the president and not acknowledging this is dishonest or not informed enough to make these arguments.

Oh and the dollar chart overlayed in the last year...most contracts are in what currency still?

FFG the contracts were penultimate, expiring the next day, commercials were not trading. The Chicago mafia aka the algos were trading. Crack spreaders made good money that day buying crude at negative prices and selling refined products in the same contract delivery month. There was no convergence to cash, futures contracts are structured to tightly. Very few commercial deliveries are done through the exchange maybe 20 MM BBLS a month, be happy to pint you in the direction of the exchange data but both cme and ice make it hard to get historical delivery data. The disconnect between futures and cash is real. Every ETF and commodity fund sellS front month and rolls to deferred contracts to avoid margin. The retail ETF products sold to the general public give the perception of exposure to commodities, but with carry charges you sell a cheaper contract to buy a more expensive one. Look at the USO ETF. The exchange lists multiple derivatives priced off Cushing BBLS, ULSD and HO delivered into NY harbor. And ICE and CME are allowed to use each other’s settlements to list contracts, all the trades are arbitraging the two exchanges. Guess how many round turns an algo shop will trade to make one tic. A: 10 if they lose on two, scratch 5, and positive p&l on 3 they have made one tic. Exchanges let the trade for free and sometimes rebate them based on volume. You know why, the other side is paying full fee. Oh by the way those algos don’t carry open interest unless the have locked in an arbitrage profit. When they do the pay member rate margins, can offset with contra contracts as well. Trading futures is trading paper, very little to do with underlying asset.

[jhu72]

Colonial pipeline restarted.