molo wrote: ↑Sun Feb 17, 2019 7:35 pm
Despite cold rain tonight, conditions should be nice--50 and clear--by game time tomorrow. After beating Duke, High Point needed OT to beat Drexel, and they will have had one day less of rest than the hosts. Nolting is the no longer secret weapon who leads a balanced offense, and the goalie, who starred against Duke, is a blue chipper. My sense is that a healthy, if maybe a tad road weary, HP team is probably better than a Lehigh team who was missing two starting attackmen, but they are probably both fairly evenly equipped as threats to UVA.
After a decisive loss to Loyola, who just might run the table, and a win over the depleted Mountain Hawks, here's how I see UVA at this stage;
DEFENSE
After struggling behind a porous d against Loyola, the tender found his bearing against Lehigh. The close d, who lost both individual and team matchups against the Hounds, looked better versus the attack of the Mountain Hawks, which consisted of one starter, a middie moved to attack for that game, and one usual backup. If Nolting is not Spencer, he's close enough to create problems for whoever covers him. The team's best longstick is a pole who excels as a face-off wing and scored a goal. His backup is talented as well, and while no dm his stood out at the game's most anonymous posititon, the deep rotation has allowed a combination of underclassmen and veterans to gain enough valuable game experience that unlike last year, when the team's most versatile player was forced into lots of dm minutes before his injury, four ssdms have held their own so far.
MIDFIELD
As mentioned, the dm corps is deeper than last year. Face-offs have been rough so far although if the freshman and the veteran can begin to make opponents work harder for gbs, the wings, Conrad and Connors in particular, should grab their share of contested gbs. Aitken has, to no one's surprise, continued where he left off last year, a candidate for MOY. Conrad plays well between the lines but has had limited offensive opportunities because he has played a lot of time inside on a 1-4-1 against zones. If HP plays zone, which they did against Duke, he should see more time on the wing,whether starting there or ending up there off a mumbo. I'm not a fan of rotations versus running two midfields. Against Lehigh, six middies, the other four being Herring, Conner, Simmons, and Quinn, took the offensive runs, but I think Aitken or Conrad was out there for every possession. When Herring is in, he goes straight to X, with Aitken up top in the 1-4-4, Kraus on the lefty wing, Moore on the righty wing, and Laviano and Conrad for the most part on the crease. Herring has a good eye for cutters, especially when left alone, as he was against Lehigh, or covered by a shorty.
ATTACK
If Kraus is still hurt, he must be feeling better. He is a sharpshooter against a zone. Is he healthy enough to carry and dodge against man? You really couldn't tell against Lehigh. Moore can snipe from the wing against a zone. My sense is that he is going to have to emerge as the primary ball carrier at X against more conventional defenses. How long it will take the converted middie to feel comfortable there is to be seen. Laviano, after a terrific freshman year shooting, needs to play tomorrow more like he did last year than he has so far this year.
COACHING
Maybe because they couldn't get into a rhythm against Loyola and maybe because Lehigh played zone, the team has not displayed the propensity for pushing the ball that put the coach's best Brown team a goal away from the NC game. Maybe there is more of a commitment to adapting the style to the game rather than adhering to the same system, but this team seems more flexible in its approach than last year's.
High Point is certainly capable of winning this game. They have already beaten Duke, who may well still be one of the best three or four teams in the country. Tierney probably thinks so. I think the home field advantage, the extra day of rest, and more depth render the home team a slight favorite.