51percentcorn wrote: ↑Sun May 02, 2021 4:09 pm
Well - slow Sunday and I looked through the first two Hopkins/Rutgers match-ups and there's some pretty obvious issues to over come for the Blue Jays:
The numbers don't tell the whole story but they tell a good deal:
- Shots - Rutgers averaging 45 shots (90 total) Hopkins averaging 32 (64 total) so 13 more a game - interestingly the teams are virtually even in shots on goal 49 S. Knights 47 Jays - so Rutgers takes more shots doesn't put many more on goal but this puts pressure on the defense and brings us to the second point:
- Saves - 27 Kirst 17 Kirson - so 5 more per game for the Knights - momentum killers and more possessions - clearly Hopkins will start Marcille so if he can change that dynamic at all Hopkins will benefit
- Turnovers/Caused Turnovers - Hopkins has committed 35 turnovers - Rutgers 22 Rutgers has been credited with 14 caused turnovers Hopkins 10 so unforced turnovers Hopkins 21 - Rutgers 12 - Rutgers has just done a much better job of taking care of the ball and creating more havoc when Hopkins has the ball.
- Clears - Hopkins did have 4 failed clears in the second game in NJ - Rutgers 1 each game
- Ground Balls - as Homer Simpson would say "Here We Go" - while the nominal ground ball number is only 7 in favor of Rutgers 56 to 49 if you dive a bit deeper there is more trouble lurking beneath the surface. Narewski and Dunn have accounted for 21 of Hopkins 49 ground balls. The Rutgers face-off men have accounted for 7 - so non face-off personnel ground ball swells to 49-28. Another ground ball stat that can't be on PM's hit list is ground balls by the 10 identified starters in the score sheet - that Rutgers advantage is 28-12 including 17-5 in the second match-up
- Face-offs - While Hopkins has nominally dominated this statistic - 37-21 and it certainly helped fuel the comeback Rutgers has shown an uncanny ability to win face-offs late when they really need them. In the first game of course there were two face-off wins and goals and in the second after Williams tied the game at 11 - Rutgers won 2 of the next 3 which helped Charambalides' 3 goal run and Hopkins only won 1 in the 4th quarter (on a violation) - Hopkins not only needs to win more - they need to win the critical late ones
- EMO is pretty even - both teams 3-6 so you certainly don't want to be at bad end of the penalty stats
- Rutgers attack - AC/KM/CK have scored 23 (9, 7 and 7) of the 32 Rutgers goals vs. Hopkins - 72% (Hopkins attack is at 55% for comparison). Rutgers has done a pretty good job on DeSimone as he has only taken 5 shots in the 2 games. I just think you have to do something here 3/3/5 and 6/4/2 - 11 or 12 goals by these three and I don't think you win. Easy to identify the problem not so easy to design a solution.
Have to take care of the ball - have to figure out a way to compete better for 50/50 ground balls - have to win late face-offs - and better goalie play and figuring out a way to slow down the 3 amigos wouldn't hurt
