Johns Hopkins 2021

[CharmCityLaxMan]

If this staff can't win with top ranked players, what chance to they have with unranked players?
Saturday's game is going to be a blood bath. UMD just blew OSU off the field.

As ludicrous a statement as can be - THIS STAFF????? It's possible this staff never saw one of these players in person until January!!! Not to mention these players were not picked by this staff and the prior staff was 2-4 and almost/should have lost to MSM. This staff inherited a MESS - got zero time to deal with it and while I don't know at all whether they will pull the program out of its current abyss it's way too soon to start bringing up 1971 or calling for heads. Wake me up in 23 or 24. It would be a great idea to schedule a post season game against Navy - makes too much sense - so it would never happen.

All seriousness and know this has been discussed a little here and there but there’s a bit of a risk or unknown in the Millikan hire. He has the first good season inheriting a great team but didn’t transcend their talent and then a bit of a letdown since and not established strong defenses. He could be perfect but arguably it’s a higher upside/downside hire than many others. Probably need two more years to get a feeling but he’s never had his “own” players really in his head coaching career so it’ll be interesting to see what a more “blue collar” D3 guy can do here. If he succeeds it’ll be so brilliant. If it doesn’t work out you really probably lose close to a decade of being truly competitive past QF at best.

The idea of giving a coach at this level any rope related to the concept of having his "own" players is ridiculous. Excepting about 2 or 3 players a class across the entire NCAA, rosters are about equivalent across the stronger programs. If you are any good at coaching, you should be in the top half of your conference every year. Otherwise, get a job selling insurance.

[Sagittarius A*]

Circled back to this board after a multi-year hiatus (with a 180* handle, wink wink).
Happy to see some familiar faces, disappointed to see the program's continued struggles. Guess it was time for a change, but woulda liked it to have been any one of the numerous, qualified alum. Think that was a miss.
Going forward, I think it is going to be a huge challenge to restore the program's luster & relevancy. Hope I'm wrong.

+1

[steel_hop]

If this staff can't win with top ranked players, what chance to they have with unranked players?
Saturday's game is going to be a blood bath. UMD just blew OSU off the field.

As ludicrous a statement as can be - THIS STAFF????? It's possible this staff never saw one of these players in person until January!!! Not to mention these players were not picked by this staff and the prior staff was 2-4 and almost/should have lost to MSM. This staff inherited a MESS - got zero time to deal with it and while I don't know at all whether they will pull the program out of its current abyss it's way too soon to start bringing up 1971 or calling for heads. Wake me up in 23 or 24. It would be a great idea to schedule a post season game against Navy - makes too much sense - so it would never happen.

All seriousness and know this has been discussed a little here and there but there’s a bit of a risk or unknown in the Millikan hire. He has the first good season inheriting a great team but didn’t transcend their talent and then a bit of a letdown since and not established strong defenses. He could be perfect but arguably it’s a higher upside/downside hire than many others. Probably need two more years to get a feeling but he’s never had his “own” players really in his head coaching career so it’ll be interesting to see what a more “blue collar” D3 guy can do here. If he succeeds it’ll be so brilliant. If it doesn’t work out you really probably lose close to a decade of being truly competitive past QF at best.

I agree with this post. Not that PM shouldn't have been hired as the best candidate but that he doesn't have a long track record. But, I look at that as an issue down your checklist of requirements when looking at hiring a new coach. I am assuming the 1st criteria (like almost any athletic hiring) was being based on the opposite end of what the last coach was i.e., Petro, in theory was a defensive coach, you then hire a guy that is more offensive minded. This isn't just true of Hopkins but most teams looking to replace a coach look toward the opposite of what you fired.

The idea of giving a coach at this level any rope related to the concept of having his "own" players is ridiculous. Excepting about 2 or 3 players a class across the entire NCAA, rosters are about equivalent across the stronger programs. If you are any good at coaching, you should be in the top half of your conference every year. Otherwise, get a job selling insurance.

I also agree with this post. Not that PM should be winning a national title in year three like UVA did. Both programs are in completely different spots talentwise when a coaching change was made and it was pretty clear Petro was a dead man walking that last year because his contract wasn't extended and Dom was fired but has a rolling K (from what I remember).

But, the team certainly should be in the NCAA's and not 2 and 7 by year 3. If that doesn't happen then, yeah, PM won't be the head coach at Hopkins for long. What you want to see is improvement from this year to next. Now, you can certainly point to the fact Hopkins won 2 games in the 1st half of the season and hasn't won any in the 2nd half as being a concern. I won't argue too much with that point.

I'll point out that missing fall ball not only hurt PM's ability to evaluate players but it also hurt player's ability to build up conditioning. With COVID, kids were in different parts of the country under different restrictions. This prevented some kids from lifting, running, etc. (Yes, I know some players were all together) While you can run on your own, it isn't the same when you are training with your teammates who can push you on nor do you get "game" conditioning because there is no practice. I don't find it that strange the team has been relatively competitive through the 1st half and into the second half for most games but faded as the 2nd half wears on. That is part differences in talent, but also, in my view, conditioning acquired during the fall.

But, without fall ball, PM is trying to figure out the team. You wished he could have done it sooner but it is what it is. Next year will be PM's true test to see if the program is heading in the right direction. He should have fall ball, a true spring practice and also time to properly evaluate players. If he is still monkeying around with playing time well into the 2022 season, that should be the concern. Of course, the opposite side of that coin is that players shouldn't be penned into the line-up in the 1st game and never be replaced if they aren't doing the job like under Petro.

[jhu06]

Circled back to this board after a multi-year hiatus (with a 180* handle, wink wink).
Happy to see some familiar faces, disappointed to see the program's continued struggles. Guess it was time for a change, but woulda liked it to have been any one of the numerous, qualified alum. Think that was a miss.
Going forward, I think it is going to be a huge challenge to restore the program's luster & relevancy. Hope I'm wrong.

+1

elite university
elite tradition
elite alumni in the sport/job connections
elite homefield venue
elite national television visibility
elite conference/most storied ooc rivalry games
elite brand and universal name id in recruiting
4 trophies a year (terps, uva, b1g, nc)
elite training
loads of free scholarship $
loads of open spots across the roster and opportunities to win jobs from day 1
loads of bloomberg bucks
loads of lacrosse alumni spread throughout the recruiting world
location in a recruiting hotbed
coaches that were 5-0 last year, played the game at the highest level, won 2 nc at jhu.
bananas and cartoons-and we're not talking about curious george
a school that isn't in the podunk midwest, doesn't have sub ivy academics, doesn't have a lacrosse tradition younger than iphones
alumni in the pll to take passive aggressive shots at their alma mater on twitter
rival commenters to scream d3 every 96 hours
a band
rumors of alleged fun on campus
a quint
a superfan who wants a recruits autographed 11x14 or game used warmup shirzey on his home wall
a carc and anish who will spend 4 years of a kids career covering his games talking about syracuse and duke
a WOMBAT
a d level
an ad passionately devoted to brainstorming powerpoint presentations she can give or use lots of tuition dollars to pay other people to give
elite covid portal
elite statue evaluation committee
elite social/coed opportunities a player just has to go to another school to enjoy
wiseass lacrosse commenters guaranteed to murder players and evaluate every gb player doen't pick up and then when it does win compare it to 4x all americans and multiple nc winning players.

lots to work with to make it all better

[flalax22]

I agree with this post. Not that PM shouldn't have been hired as the best candidate but that he doesn't have a long track record. But, I look at that as an issue down your checklist of requirements when looking at hiring a new coach. I am assuming the 1st criteria (like almost any athletic hiring) was being based on the opposite end of what the last coach was i.e., Petro, in theory was a defensive coach, you then hire a guy that is more offensive minded. This isn't just true of Hopkins but most teams looking to replace a coach look toward the opposite of what you fired.

Defensive to Offensive minded coaching really had nothing to do with the change. The AD and former AD didn’t like Petro personally or professionally. This was a conflict of personalities and style. I would suggest the coaching change had very little to do with on field results. They were looking for a kinder and gentler Coach.

[51percentcorn]

IMO - the issue isn't so much that Milliman doesn't have his own players - I might imagine if he had UVA's top 6 or UNC's or Duke's etc. they could very well be scoring alot of goals and winning games. The two big issues are these - again IMO
- Petro ruined the roster with early recruiting - plain and simple - if you assume most of the seniors who have a remaining year of eligibility leave for jobs etc. - you have Degnon in the junior class and Angelus in the senior class as the only offensive middies who have really scored. And if you think Johns Hopkins mismanaged Evan Zinn - well DP has to shoulder some of that as well. It wasn't Milliman who benched him after Fernandez (ironically) I believe stole his lunch money and scored in '19 - and that was a benching. And of course Angelus is really an attackman. That leads to all the other freshman besides Peshko and McDermott that haven't played that are the new favorites of '06 - just wait young men - if you don't score at least a goal a game he'll turn on you.
- The timing - which was a good thing for the program on the one hand - led to a full scale onslaught of poachers and kids making different decisions. So regardless of how the '21 class turns out - it obviously can't be the entirety of what Milliman or anyone would have wanted to recruit. And since April 26 - or thereabouts when he was hired - was only 4 months or so before '22s could be contacted and start committing - well he was clearly behind the 8 ball more so than most other coaches. He had no ability to see his team - know what he really needed - and now was recruiting against different types of teams maybe from a more diverse geo base. No one put a gun to his head and made him take the job but he had to feel like he was working with maybe both hands tied behind his back.
- Collison/Marquis/Smith etc. etc. - assuming they make it - won't be in a Hopkins jersey for almost 2 years - I've been told patience is a virtue

[51percentcorn]

Baker got hired in August of '19 - Petro was gone by April of '20 - not necessarily disputing your account but it didn't take long that's for sure. I think the firing had more to do with the record since 2008 and especially the 10-12 in '19 and '20. I can't imagine what DP could have done to alter this record substantially so the peasants would be storming the castle anyway.

Have also not heard many people describe Milliman as kindler/gentler - while he may not quite employ Dave's extensive vocabulary - he strikes me as pretty businesslike and not that gentle.

[nrthcrosslax]

So does Marcille, who's body language and quickness seem to be an improvement, get thrown to the wolves against Maryland?

[HopFan16]

IMO - the issue isn't so much that Milliman doesn't have his own players - I might imagine if he had UVA's top 6 or UNC's or Duke's etc. they could very well be scoring alot of goals and winning games. The two big issues are these - again IMO

Perhaps it's overblown but I do think there is something to needing "his" players. PM and Junior were pretty clear about the offense they want to install. I'm pretty sure Junior said something along the lines of if he never saw an alley dodge again he'd be happy. The offense right now is sort of in no man's land between the old system the players were used to and the one that the new staff plans on installing one day. It's not fully there yet. Look at some of the offensive players Milliman/Junior have recruited:

- Charboneau: Canadian
- Wong: crease/wing finisher, plays box for First Nations
- Phillips: Canadian
- Marquis: Canadian/Native box player
- Collison: Canadian
- Billings: Canadian
- McDonald: Canadian

The American middies they've kept from Petro or recruited themselves have different skill sets but they all seem like either wing slashers or possible two-way guys: Reen, Hicks, Teachout, Iler, Smith.

Here is Marquis on why he chose Hopkins. FWIW, Syracuse was also after him hard:

"Hopkins is a place where I think I’m able to play my style of lacrosse. The new coaching staff with Pete Milliman and John Grant, Jr., that was biggest factor on where I was choosing to play my style and to have fun doing it,” Marquis explained. “I chose Hopkins early because I feel like it is a place where I can develop as a player and as a student, with the coaching of John Grant, Jr., I believe he can best help me as a player and a person. My future goals are to win a National Championship with the men in blue and to leave with a great education.”

They're not hiding what they want to do. Are the players on the roster, who have little box experience, capable of running this system—on short notice, with no fall ball? Some are—some aren't.

For the record—I think this where the field game is headed. Milliman was onto something last year with Cornell—that offense was unstoppable. I don't think it requires a player of Teat's caliber to be effective. It's gonna take a few years. Needs some time to mold players to fit what they hope to do and it certainly requires more time than a pandemic-shortened season to do that. The question is will Hopkins alum give him the time he needs or will they panic and cry and moan that he's not an alum and threaten to stop donating? We might already have our answer.

[HopFan16]

So does Marcille, who's body language and quickness seem to be an improvement, get thrown to the wolves against Maryland?

I see almost no downside to it. Best case—maybe he gives you something you've been missing. Worst case, it's more of the same.

I guess one downside if you look really hard for one is that if he gets absolutely shelled, it could destroy the kid's confidence. And if you want him to compete for the spot next year you obviously don't want that to happen. But from what I've heard about Marcille he's not the type of kid that'd let it get to him. Appears to be pretty mentally tough and have been told he's an ardent student of the game. If he gets shelled—he'd probably rewatch the film 20 times to figure out how he can improve. I say give the kid a shot. Nothing would get this team amped more than a sophomore goalie who has never played come in out of nowhere and make some big stops. If you're looking for a spark—ANY kind of spark—that'd be one idea.

[nyjay]

Some thoughts on what's been said over the last couple of days:

1. PM wasn't the most inspired hire, but there really wasn't an obvious choice. None of the alums (Nads, Marr, Voelker, Tierney, Raymond) were perfect choices. Dano, Lars, Shay, Tillman weren't coming. So who were they supposed to hire? PM was a solid hire and hired a very good staff. While PM burned some good will with the Epstein comments and with the roster management, I still think he can succeed and it's hard for me to second guess the hire. I see know reason to cease being supportive of the staff.

2. Yes the roster is a bit of the island of misfit toys, it's hard to win with no actual M's, and PM has tinkered around too much and for too long. But there is some talent there and things should round into shape at some point. And yes, this is due to the sins of early recruiting. Next year will be very different from a competitive standpoint too. The entire ACC, UMd and Rutgers will lose their 5th+ players (of which Hop has 1), which will go a long way towards restoring competitive balance. All of those teams are very, very different this year without those players.

3. Yes, I really didn't expect 2-7. Really didn't see that coming. Thought they'd be around .500.

4. But setting aside the record and all of the systemic/institutional issues, for me, the story of the season come down to one thing: poor goaltending. Per the NCAA site, Kirson is 61st out of 61 qualifying goalies in save% at 39.7%. (Oddly, B1G goalies are in spots 58-61, with Kirst and McNaney being in the top 30). He has saved 71/179 shots of goal. Again per the NCAA, the 31st ranked goalie (Rode of UVa) has a save% of .534. If Kirson's save% was .534 (i.e. average), he would have given up 83 goals, rather than 108. Now for the year, Hop has scored a total of 95 goals and given up 115. With average goalie play, that 115 goes down to 90 or so and the team ends up with a positive goal difference on the year and likely something close to a .500 record.

5. I understand that reality isn't as simple as the above math. There have certainly been times where the D has held out Kirson to dry and I have no way of determining whether he's been facing tougher shots than the average goalie (though the poor performance of 4 of the 6 B1G goalies may point that direction). On the other had, can't sort the data easily, but Kirson hasn't faced an extraordinary number of shots. In fact he's faced fewer shots than most D1 goalies. So maybe it's fair to just assume that he's face an average collection of shots and not performed well.

6. So I guess I'd simply say that with average goalie play, we're likely having a different conversation at this point.

[flalax22]

IMO - the issue isn't so much that Milliman doesn't have his own players - I might imagine if he had UVA's top 6 or UNC's or Duke's etc. they could very well be scoring alot of goals and winning games. The two big issues are these - again IMO

Perhaps it's overblown but I do think there is something to needing "his" players. PM and Junior were pretty clear about the offense they want to install. I'm pretty sure Junior said something along the lines of if he never saw an alley dodge again he'd be happy. The offense right now is sort of in no man's land between the old system the players were used to and the one that the new staff plans on installing one day. It's not fully there yet. Look at some of the offensive players Milliman/Junior have recruited:

- Charboneau: Canadian
- Wong: crease/wing finisher, plays box for First Nations
- Phillips: Canadian
- Marquis: Canadian/Native box player
- Collison: Canadian
- Billings: Canadian
- McDonald: Canadian

It’s obvious given that list, his recent comments about the passing skill of the current Jays team and what he put together at Cornell that he is after elite level stick skills. That’s going to take some time.

[nrthcrosslax]

Epstein needs to get back to his fundamentals. He's made a living off that overhand wing snipe to the corner. Why go low to high sidearm when the team is needing some momentum? Get back to fundamentals, can a couple and get some confidence.
Grimes has a silky smooth shooting motion but would love to seem him get a couple MPH increase and start blowing it by goalies like Degnon. Or change your swing like Tiger Woods and develop a quicker release?

[jhu06]

IMO - the issue isn't so much that Milliman doesn't have his own players - I might imagine if he had UVA's top 6 or UNC's or Duke's etc. they could very well be scoring alot of goals and winning games. The two big issues are these - again IMO

Perhaps it's overblown but I do think there is something to needing "his" players. PM and Junior were pretty clear about the offense they want to install. I'm pretty sure Junior said something along the lines of if he never saw an alley dodge again he'd be happy. The offense right now is sort of in no man's land between the old system the players were used to and the one that the new staff plans on installing one day. It's not fully there yet. Look at some of the offensive players Milliman/Junior have recruited:

- Charboneau: Canadian
- Wong: crease/wing finisher, plays box for First Nations
- Phillips: Canadian
- Marquis: Canadian/Native box player
- Collison: Canadian
- Billings: Canadian
- McDonald: Canadian

The American middies they've kept from Petro or recruited themselves have different skill sets but they all seem like either wing slashers or possible two-way guys: Reen, Hicks, Teachout, Iler, Smith.

Here is Marquis on why he chose Hopkins. FWIW, Syracuse was also after him hard:

"Hopkins is a place where I think I’m able to play my style of lacrosse. The new coaching staff with Pete Milliman and John Grant, Jr., that was biggest factor on where I was choosing to play my style and to have fun doing it,” Marquis explained. “I chose Hopkins early because I feel like it is a place where I can develop as a player and as a student, with the coaching of John Grant, Jr., I believe he can best help me as a player and a person. My future goals are to win a National Championship with the men in blue and to leave with a great education.”

They're not hiding what they want to do. Are the players on the roster, who have little box experience, capable of running this system—on short notice, with no fall ball? Some are—some aren't.

For the record—I think this where the field game is headed. Milliman was onto something last year with Cornell—that offense was unstoppable. I don't think it requires a player of Teat's caliber to be effective. It's gonna take a few years. Needs some time to mold players to fit what they hope to do and it certainly requires more time than a pandemic-shortened season to do that. The question is will Hopkins alum give him the time he needs or will they panic and cry and moan that he's not an alum and threaten to stop donating? We might already have our answer.

-this is what quint should've been giving us this year instead of the uncorroborated shots at PM for epstein.
-"hopkins has elite level stick skills, but struggles w/speed, size, hustle, physicality and athleticism"has been a component of every shot qk has taken at the program on broadcasts for over a decade. Now do we don't even have the stick skills?
-PM was 5-0. If there were a lacrosse Juwan Howard/Pat Fitzgerald type alum option I'm sure that would've been on the table. Having a non alum puts the focus squarely on what they do today.
-51 and several others thought 2-7 was a distinct possibility. there were a few moments earlier this spring this looked more promising.
-if the Sun ran stories like "5 options for Hopkins goalie next year" "10 midfield options""How PM gets from 68 potential players to next years roster" had a local lacrosse podcast they might sell more subscriptions.
-for the this year was always going to be rough crowd
Patrick Stevens @D1scourseThe stat of the year (for now) in D-I men's lacrosse is that 11 teams --- the five ACC schools, and the top two teams in the Big East (Denver/Georgetown), Big Ten (Maryland/Rutgers) and Patriot (Lehigh/Army) are a combined 70-0 against everyone else.

[HopFan16]

Went back and watched the Rutgers game highlights to get a sense of how much was really on the goalie. Here's what I saw:

Rutgers goal #1. Keogh is trapped on defense, gets lost, Charalambides easy dunk on the crease. Not saveable
2. Lilly bad approach on Charalambides from ~7 yards out. Not really saveable
3. Degnon caught on defense, doesn't extend out, Reinson accidentally screens Kirson on the shot from 14 yards out but still saveable
4. Zinn loses his man, shot low to low with hands free from 10 yards at an angle—not an easy save, but saveable
5. McDermott caught on defense, shot on the run from a Rutgers SSDM from 13 yards out high to high, Kirson is caught cheating low. Saveable
6. Shot from Kirst high to low from 12 yards out, Kirson gets a piece of it but trickles in. Saveable
7. GLE dunk from a severe angle after some loose ball mayhem. While it is right on the crease, Kirson is in terrible position, way off the pipe and perpendicular to the goal line, giving the Rutgers shooter w/ no angle a lot more net to shoot at. Saveable
8. Kirst high to high from 12 yards out on the man-up—could have done a better job getting on his hands but this is the kind of shot you want the other team taking on an EMO chance. Saveable
9. We get caught in a terrible change leaving Rutgers a transition opportunity—and yet, Kirst begins is wind up literally 19 yards away from the goal, releases it about 15-16 yards out. No defender near him but he's shooting from the moon. Saveable
10. McManus takes a bad approach, but the shot is on the run from 12 yards out, Kirson doesn't even move. Saveable
11. Not the worst defense from Jaronski, Martin is maybe a little slow to slide, but the shot hilariously goes straight into the ground from 6 yards out and then bounces up, which clearly surprised Kirson. I guess saveable? Kind of just unlucky. One of the weirdest lookin shots I've seen
12. Mullins from 7 yards out with three collapsing around him. Good shot but saveable
13. Charalambides from 3 yards out with his back to the goalie flips one over Kirson's left shoulder, if we're being honest no right-handed goalie is making that save
14. Charalambides gets a step on Lyne, but again this is some sever angle wizardry from the Canadian—Kirson is not in great position and again is cheating low. Hard but saveable
Kirson pulled, Marcille comes in
15. Bouncer from 14 yards out—definitely saveable but it was Marcille's first D1 save attempt so I'll give him a mulligan
16. Charalambides quick dunk on the crease, not saveable
17. Lilly loses it in transition, Rutgers guy is one on one with Marcille. Not saveable

Breakdown:
- 4 crease dunks that were definitely not the goalie's fault. Two of those were with Marcille in cage
- 7 shots from 12+ yards out
- 6 mid-range shots (~5-10 yards or so) that are dealer's choice between bad defense vs. bad goaltending

To be clear, "saveable" does not necessarily mean "100% must be saved." A few of these are not easy saves. But more of them certainly need to be stopped. You can't let in 7 shots from 12+ yards out.

A lot of the goals were the result of either poor transition play or offensive middies getting caught on defense. When we have the correct personnel on the field in settled 6v6 situations, the defense isn't half bad. There's something to be hopeful about moving forward I guess

[nyjay]

I don't believe our defense is that bad, but every mistake that gets made ends up in the back of the net. I wish we had a stat like "goals saved above expected" (http://moneypuck.com/goalies.htm) but we don't. That said, when your goalie is 61st out of 61 in save% and has a save% that is .025 worse than the #60 goalie, you have goalie issues. And again - he's faced 179 shots, so a .05% improvement is 9 fewer goals against, .10% is 18 fewer and .15% is 27 fewer. Our current goal difference is -20.

[steel_hop]

So does Marcille, who's body language and quickness seem to be an improvement, get thrown to the wolves against Maryland?

I see almost no downside to it. Best case—maybe he gives you something you've been missing. Worst case, it's more of the same.

I guess one downside if you look really hard for one is that if he gets absolutely shelled, it could destroy the kid's confidence. And if you want him to compete for the spot next year you obviously don't want that to happen. But from what I've heard about Marcille he's not the type of kid that'd let it get to him. Appears to be pretty mentally tough and have been told he's an ardent student of the game. If he gets shelled—he'd probably rewatch the film 20 times to figure out how he can improve. I say give the kid a shot. Nothing would get this team amped more than a sophomore goalie who has never played come in out of nowhere and make some big stops. If you're looking for a spark—ANY kind of spark—that'd be one idea.

I don't think there is downside at all. If this isn't the time, then there never will be time. I think it is pretty well established that Keirson isn't getting the job done. There shouldn't be any real loyalty to him. Much better to see if Marcille can handle the duties of being a DI goalie. If he does get shelled and that destroys his confidence, then he probably shouldn't be playing goal at this level. In this day and age of lax, that is going to happen to almost every goalie. If he can't come back from that then better to find that out now, too.

[steel_hop]

4. But setting aside the record and all of the systemic/institutional issues, for me, the story of the season come down to one thing: poor goaltending. Per the NCAA site, Kirson is 61st out of 61 qualifying goalies in save% at 39.7%. (Oddly, B1G goalies are in spots 58-61, with Kirst and McNaney being in the top 30). He has saved 71/179 shots of goal. Again per the NCAA, the 31st ranked goalie (Rode of UVa) has a save% of .534. If Kirson's save% was .534 (i.e. average), he would have given up 83 goals, rather than 108. Now for the year, Hop has scored a total of 95 goals and given up 115. With average goalie play, that 115 goes down to 90 or so and the team ends up with a positive goal difference on the year and likely something close to a .500 record.

5. I understand that reality isn't as simple as the above math. There have certainly been times where the D has held out Kirson to dry and I have no way of determining whether he's been facing tougher shots than the average goalie (though the poor performance of 4 of the 6 B1G goalies may point that direction). On the other had, can't sort the data easily, but Kirson hasn't faced an extraordinary number of shots. In fact he's faced fewer shots than most D1 goalies. So maybe it's fair to just assume that he's face an average collection of shots and not performed well.

6. So I guess I'd simply say that with average goalie play, we're likely having a different conversation at this point.

I don't disagree with your overall point.

The only problem with evaluating B1G goalies against everyone else is the insular nature of the fact the B1G is only playing its own B1G teams (which is still absurd but it is what it is now.). There is no chance to gage the results against other teams. There is no ability to build up saves against lesser opponents (nothing against that). So while I agree that Hopkins has gotten some poor goaltending and the defense, at times, has hung him out to dry it is hard to determine if this is a Hopkins issue or B1G goalie issue. Granted, from what I've watched, and that isn't a ton, I don't think he has played particularly well. I also don't think the defense has played awesome either. While the numbers don't reflect it, they've played better than last year but they still have a long way to go before the resemble any type of shutdown defense.

[nyjay]

4. But setting aside the record and all of the systemic/institutional issues, for me, the story of the season come down to one thing: poor goaltending. Per the NCAA site, Kirson is 61st out of 61 qualifying goalies in save% at 39.7%. (Oddly, B1G goalies are in spots 58-61, with Kirst and McNaney being in the top 30). He has saved 71/179 shots of goal. Again per the NCAA, the 31st ranked goalie (Rode of UVa) has a save% of .534. If Kirson's save% was .534 (i.e. average), he would have given up 83 goals, rather than 108. Now for the year, Hop has scored a total of 95 goals and given up 115. With average goalie play, that 115 goes down to 90 or so and the team ends up with a positive goal difference on the year and likely something close to a .500 record.

5. I understand that reality isn't as simple as the above math. There have certainly been times where the D has held out Kirson to dry and I have no way of determining whether he's been facing tougher shots than the average goalie (though the poor performance of 4 of the 6 B1G goalies may point that direction). On the other had, can't sort the data easily, but Kirson hasn't faced an extraordinary number of shots. In fact he's faced fewer shots than most D1 goalies. So maybe it's fair to just assume that he's face an average collection of shots and not performed well.

6. So I guess I'd simply say that with average goalie play, we're likely having a different conversation at this point.

I don't disagree with your overall point.

The only problem with evaluating B1G goalies against everyone else is the insular nature of the fact the B1G is only playing its own B1G teams (which is still absurd but it is what it is now.). There is no chance to gage the results against other teams. There is no ability to build up saves against lesser opponents (nothing against that). So while I agree that Hopkins has gotten some poor goaltending and the defense, at times, has hung him out to dry it is hard to determine if this is a Hopkins issue or B1G goalie issue. Granted, from what I've watched, and that isn't a ton, I don't think he has played particularly well. I also don't think the defense has played awesome either. While the numbers don't reflect it, they've played better than last year but they still have a long way to go before the resemble any type of shutdown defense.

Agree re the B1G - facing MD (a historically great shooting team) and Rutgers certainly doesn't help save% and it contributes to the fact that the four worst goalies in D1 save% are all in the B1G. And the two who aren't at the bottom don't have to face their own teams. So, yeah, I'm well aware of the limits of my "analysis", such as it is. But still, the numbers are really, really bad.

Kirson hasn't passed the eye test to me either. Didn't see this last Rutgers games, but the games I've seen he seems to alternate between guessing (a lot of dropping on high shots in particular) and being late in his movement to a shot. This, I think, is indicative of him being in his own head a bit, overthinking and not playing naturally.

[steel_hop]

Agree re the B1G - facing MD (a historically great shooting team) and Rutgers certainly doesn't help save% and it contributes to the fact that the four worst goalies in D1 save% are all in the B1G. And the two who aren't at the bottom don't have to face their own teams. So, yeah, I'm well aware of the limits of my "analysis", such as it is. But still, the numbers are really, really bad.

Kirson hasn't passed the eye test to me either. Didn't see this last Rutgers games, but the games I've seen he seems to alternate between guessing (a lot of dropping on high shots in particular) and being late in his movement to a shot. This, I think, is indicative of him being in his own head a bit, overthinking and not playing naturally.

Yeah, and that is what I am talking about. If a guy can't shake off a bad game and starts to spiral there isn't much you can do. He needs to work his way out of it. If he can't better to know that now than down the road next season when it might really matter.

Further, I am really only posting this because there is no way this should almost fall off the page.