THE 2019 Hopkins Lacrosse Fallout Shelter (44, we want more!)

[OCanada]

Steel_Hop,

I was dating a woman with 2 daughters in RPCS. Christmas is getting close and they both want Patagonia. So I go to South Moon under in Towson. Girl on duty asks if she can help. I say yes, glad for it, and tell her what I am looking for.

Her first question is where do they go to school. I ask if it matters=. She says yes. If they go to RPCS I want this one in this color. If they go to Bryn Mawr that one. St Tim's that one etc. When you are asked where you went to school it is HS. Thanks for bringing that back

[HopFan16]

Turnovers: As noted above, Towson ended the game with +14 in possessions just on f/o wins. Add in +11 more on contested groundballs, +3 on T/O ratio and a further +5 on CTO gave Towson a huge possession advantage. You aren't going to win many games when the other team has 33 more opportunities with the ball than you.

I am not overly concerned about turnovers as a longterm issue. The Jays took good care of the ball last year. My guess is this was just a particularly sloppy early-season game against a very good (and physical) defense.

Faceoffs, however, could derail this season quickly if an answer isn't found. Though he tailed off toward the end of the year, Moreland was still a very solid FOGO who got quite hot at times. At the very least you could generally expect that he'd win the majority against lesser FOGOs and at least give the Jays a chance against the better ones. (Okay, not all of them, but some of them). I said this before, but I'm not sure exactly how this faceoff unit is going to suddenly turn things around. Either you've got a guy or you don't. Nothing we've seen from any of them to this point suggests that any of them will become "the guy" this year. I keep hearing Prouty has lots of talent but have yet to truly see it. Narewski looked the best against Woodall but that isn't saying much. And god knows if we have to keep going to the longpole option, then we're pretty much screwed because that has never, ever worked.

Luckily, we're entering the stretch of the schedule where we're not supposed to be seeing any truly elite FOGOs—at least, according to last year's stats.

[flalax22]

Turnovers: As noted above, Towson ended the game with +14 in possessions just on f/o wins. Add in +11 more on contested groundballs, +3 on T/O ratio and a further +5 on CTO gave Towson a huge possession advantage. You aren't going to win many games when the other team has 33 more opportunities with the ball than you.

I am not overly concerned about turnovers as a longterm issue. The Jays took good care of the ball last year. My guess is this was just a particularly sloppy early-season game against a very good (and physical) defense.

I don't share your optimism. This is a VERY inexperienced group. Counting O Mids and Attack how many do you have a good feel for? With 2 mid lines and an attack group Hop fans know about 3 (maybe 4) of the 9 players hitting the field. I'm very concerned about the turnovers.

[HopFan16]

Turnovers: As noted above, Towson ended the game with +14 in possessions just on f/o wins. Add in +11 more on contested groundballs, +3 on T/O ratio and a further +5 on CTO gave Towson a huge possession advantage. You aren't going to win many games when the other team has 33 more opportunities with the ball than you.

I am not overly concerned about turnovers as a longterm issue. The Jays took good care of the ball last year. My guess is this was just a particularly sloppy early-season game against a very good (and physical) defense.

I don't share your optimism. This is a VERY inexperienced group. Counting O Mids and Attack how many do you have a good feel for? With 2 mid lines and an attack group Hop fans know about 3 (maybe 4) of the 9 players hitting the field. I'm very concerned about the turnovers.

Jays were 9th in the country in turnover percentage last year, if memory serves. And as much as Tinney contributed to the offense, he was perennially among our most turnover prone players. Marr early in his career was a turnover machine but he really cut down on them last year, finishing with just 12 in 17 games. Williams turned it over quite a few times last year but in year two as a starter in the offense, you'd hope he cuts down on them somewhat, especially as he becomes a more confident passer. (I recall most of his TOs last year were on errant passes.) The offense's other major contributors: DeSimone, Concannon, and Smith, do not strike me as particularly turnover prone. In 32 career games, Concannon only has 11 turnovers. As mostly an off-ball finisher, Smith only had 5 turnovers his freshman year. (I suppose that number could go up if he's going to do more dodging this year.) Yes, Epstein is going to turn it over some as he adjusts to quarterbacking a D1 offense, and the rest of the midfield is very young, but I think there's enough proven talent on offense to expect last week's debacle to be more of an outlier, and not the start of a pattern.

I like how Cattoni showed a little bit of initiative—he's got some of Tinney's recklessness to his game, for better or worse. Maybe it's a Canadian thing. But I'll cut him some slack on the three bad turnovers since it was his first collegiate game. I'm sure he was chewed out six ways to Sunday. He was not the only guy who seemed unprepared for how fast and physical the Towson defense was. To me that was a failure of gameplanning.

Turnovers are one thing that I think you can reasonably expect to improve as the younger players gain more experience and get used to the speed of the game at this level. Our faceoff and SSDM problems are of much greater concern to me. I'm struggling to see a light at the end of the tunnel there.

[runrussellrun]

Hopkins was 8th, and winning Yale was 32nd? (two more per game ) TO's, like groun balls, matter , only if they matter.

Assisted goals and shooting percentage more meaningful. Hopkins was decent, in 2018 on the former, not so much on the latter. What was the shooting % for Hopkins in game one?

[Typical Lax Dad]

Hopkins was 8th, and winning Yale was 32nd? (two more per game ) TO's, like groun balls, matter , only if they matter.

Assisted goals and shooting percentage more meaningful. Hopkins was decent, in 2018 on the former, not so much on the latter. What was the shooting % for Hopkins in game one?

I was told assisted goal totals are down across college lacrosse thus far I have not seen data to prove or disprove it. Will be interesting to watch.

[HopFan16]

I feel like all this talk about turnovers, clearing, goaltending, shooting percentage, is missing the point. The elephant in the room is possessions. A huge possession deficit trickles down to every other facet of the game. The defense gets tired because they're constantly playing. The offense starts pressing and forcing things because they don't know when they're going to see the ball again. Watching the faceoff go to the other team again and again can demoralize both ends of the field and wear down the D mentally and physically—that's when you start seeing lapses in judgment, ball-watching, late slides, etc. Under Petro, the Jays have historically not been able to overcome such a huge disadvantage at the faceoff dot. If they can just get it to around 40% then they have a chance. But 25% is not going to cut it. 25% makes it impossible for the offense, defense, and transition units to make the necessary improvements.

The silver lining is, Alex Woodall is one of the best faceoff guys there is, so the Jays theoretically shouldn't be working with such a huge deficit in most games. (I am dreading facing Arceri, Inacio, and Maryland's tandem once the B1G schedule rolls around.) If the Jays are able to make faceoffs more competitive in upcoming games and the defense is STILL playing like doodoo and the offense is STILL throwing the ball all over the field, then we've got problems. But until then I'm not sure the other stuff is worth freaking out about.

[runrussellrun]

Hopkins was 8th, and winning Yale was 32nd? (two more per game ) TO's, like groun balls, matter , only if they matter.

Assisted goals and shooting percentage more meaningful. Hopkins was decent, in 2018 on the former, not so much on the latter. What was the shooting % for Hopkins in game one?

I was told assisted goal totals are down acroo college lacrosse thus far I have not seen data to prove or disprove it. Will be interesting to watch.

What counts is percentage of goals that are assisted, which, for some strange reason, is not kept. That HIGH scoring game you love this weekend, only 2 of the 7 goals were assisted. 28%. Not good at all.

Hopkins had 6 assists against Towson, a tad bit behind the 2018 overall assists of 7.29 per game. The more important number is 62%, which is how many goals Hopkins scored last year 2018,that were assisted . In the loss to Towson, assist to goal percentage is 75%. That's pretty darn good. Towsons assit per goal percentage was 41%....nine point lower than the overall 50% from last year. Hopkins up, Towson Down. (btw, Nitme lions are up, so far, this season )

Hopkins won just as many FO's in the 1st quarter as they did the 2nd. Didn't they have a 4-2 lead? No mention of Towson's 6 more CTO's (11 total) than Hopkins. Yes, pieces of good brew.........

[Typical Lax Dad]

Hopkins was 8th, and winning Yale was 32nd? (two more per game ) TO's, like groun balls, matter , only if they matter.

Assisted goals and shooting percentage more meaningful. Hopkins was decent, in 2018 on the former, not so much on the latter. What was the shooting % for Hopkins in game one?

I was told assisted goal totals are down acroo college lacrosse thus far I have not seen data to prove or disprove it. Will be interesting to watch.

What counts is percentage of goals that are assisted, which, for some strange reason, is not kept. That HIGH scoring game you love this weekend, only 2 of the 7 goals were assisted. 28%. Not good at all.

Hopkins had 6 assists against Towson, a tad bit behind the 2018 overall assists of 7.29 per game. The more important number is 62%, which is how many goals Hopkins scored last year 2018,that were assisted . In the loss to Towson, assist to goal percentage is 75%. That's pretty darn good. Towsons assit per goal percentage was 41%....nine point lower than the overall 50% from last year. Hopkins up, Towson Down. (btw, Nitme lions are up, so far, this season )

Hopkins won just as many FO's in the 1st quarter as they did the 2nd. Didn't they have a 4-2 lead? No mention of Towson's 6 more CTO's (11 total) than Hopkins. Yes, pieces of good brew.........

Yes. I am interested in the % of assisted goals versus assist totals. If goal totals are the same and assists are down, I would conclude that assisted goals are down. If goal totals are down but assists are up or the same, the opposite would be true.

[WOMBAT, Mod Emeritus]

Steel_Hop,

I was dating a woman with 2 daughters in RPCS. Christmas is getting close and they both want Patagonia. So I go to South Moon under in Towson. Girl on duty asks if she can help. I say yes, glad for it, and tell her what I am looking for.

Her first question is where do they go to school. I ask if it matters=. She says yes. If they go to RPCS I want this one in this color. If they go to Bryn Mawr that one. St Tim's that one etc. When you are asked where you went to school it is HS. Thanks for bringing that back

Without looking at the userID, I started reading this post and got five words in: “I was dating a woman...” and I stopped and said to myself, this sounds like OC.

Yep.

[steel_hop]

What counts is percentage of goals that are assisted, which, for some strange reason, is not kept. That HIGH scoring game you love this weekend, only 2 of the 7 goals were assisted. 28%. Not good at all.

Hopkins had 6 assists against Towson, a tad bit behind the 2018 overall assists of 7.29 per game. The more important number is 62%, which is how many goals Hopkins scored last year 2018,that were assisted . In the loss to Towson, assist to goal percentage is 75%. That's pretty darn good. Towsons assit per goal percentage was 41%....nine point lower than the overall 50% from last year. Hopkins up, Towson Down. (btw, Nitme lions are up, so far, this season )

Hopkins won just as many FO's in the 1st quarter as they did the 2nd. Didn't they have a 4-2 lead? No mention of Towson's 6 more CTO's (11 total) than Hopkins. Yes, pieces of good brew.........

CTOs are a huge issue but your middle paragraph is sort of pointless. Who cares if Hopkins had a higher rate of assist goals than Towson. Towson can point to the one stat that matter - scoreboard.

[Drcthru]

Hopkins was 8th, and winning Yale was 32nd? (two more per game ) TO's, like groun balls, matter , only if they matter.

Assisted goals and shooting percentage more meaningful. Hopkins was decent, in 2018 on the former, not so much on the latter. What was the shooting % for Hopkins in game one?

I was told assisted goal totals are down acroo college lacrosse thus far I have not seen data to prove or disprove it. Will be interesting to watch.

What counts is percentage of goals that are assisted, which, for some strange reason, is not kept. That HIGH scoring game you love this weekend, only 2 of the 7 goals were assisted. 28%. Not good at all.

Hopkins had 6 assists against Towson, a tad bit behind the 2018 overall assists of 7.29 per game. The more important number is 62%, which is how many goals Hopkins scored last year 2018,that were assisted . In the loss to Towson, assist to goal percentage is 75%. That's pretty darn good. Towsons assit per goal percentage was 41%....nine point lower than the overall 50% from last year. Hopkins up, Towson Down. (btw, Nitme lions are up, so far, this season )

Hopkins won just as many FO's in the 1st quarter as they did the 2nd. Didn't they have a 4-2 lead? No mention of Towson's 6 more CTO's (11 total) than Hopkins. Yes, pieces of good brew.........

Yes. I am interested in the % of assisted goals versus assist totals. If goal totals are the same and assists are down, I would conclude that assisted goals are down. If goal totals are down but assists are up or the same, the opposite would be true.

Look at the stats. A/G= assist %. Duh.

[runrussellrun]

What counts is percentage of goals that are assisted, which, for some strange reason, is not kept. That HIGH scoring game you love this weekend, only 2 of the 7 goals were assisted. 28%. Not good at all.

Hopkins had 6 assists against Towson, a tad bit behind the 2018 overall assists of 7.29 per game. The more important number is 62%, which is how many goals Hopkins scored last year 2018,that were assisted . In the loss to Towson, assist to goal percentage is 75%. That's pretty darn good. Towsons assit per goal percentage was 41%....nine point lower than the overall 50% from last year. Hopkins up, Towson Down. (btw, Nitme lions are up, so far, this season )

Hopkins won just as many FO's in the 1st quarter as they did the 2nd. Didn't they have a 4-2 lead? No mention of Towson's 6 more CTO's (11 total) than Hopkins. Yes, pieces of good brew.........

CTOs are a huge issue but your middle paragraph is sort of pointless. Who cares if Hopkins had a higher rate of assist goals than Towson. Towson can point to the one stat that matter - scoreboard.

Hey, just answering TLD's question, don't blame my pointlessness, but understand the point. Pretty much sums up the life, mostly

[Typical Lax Dad]

Hopkins was 8th, and winning Yale was 32nd? (two more per game ) TO's, like groun balls, matter , only if they matter.

Assisted goals and shooting percentage more meaningful. Hopkins was decent, in 2018 on the former, not so much on the latter. What was the shooting % for Hopkins in game one?

I was told assisted goal totals are down acroo college lacrosse thus far I have not seen data to prove or disprove it. Will be interesting to watch.

What counts is percentage of goals that are assisted, which, for some strange reason, is not kept. That HIGH scoring game you love this weekend, only 2 of the 7 goals were assisted. 28%. Not good at all.

Hopkins had 6 assists against Towson, a tad bit behind the 2018 overall assists of 7.29 per game. The more important number is 62%, which is how many goals Hopkins scored last year 2018,that were assisted . In the loss to Towson, assist to goal percentage is 75%. That's pretty darn good. Towsons assit per goal percentage was 41%....nine point lower than the overall 50% from last year. Hopkins up, Towson Down. (btw, Nitme lions are up, so far, this season )

Hopkins won just as many FO's in the 1st quarter as they did the 2nd. Didn't they have a 4-2 lead? No mention of Towson's 6 more CTO's (11 total) than Hopkins. Yes, pieces of good brew.........

Yes. I am interested in the % of assisted goals versus assist totals. If goal totals are the same and assists are down, I would conclude that assisted goals are down. If goal totals are down but assists are up or the same, the opposite would be true.

Look at the stats. A/G= assist %. Duh.

Thanks. You can score a goal without and assist but its hard to get an assist with no goal.

[tu_fan]

There's not a reason for anyone to over react. Anyone who thinks Towson ends this season ahead of Hop is a clown. Hop has more weapons on offense than they know what to do with. Epstein is going to take over this thing, let Williams be a wing dodger or have those to work 2 man behind the net and let the rest of the guys fill off ball type roles. System will work out. Nothing worth freaking out about.
Hop to the final 4 lock it in

I'll take action on that if you truly feel that way. Towson has been a superior team over the last 4 years, finishing ahead of JHU in 2016 and 2017 (measured by who made a deeper run in the playoffs). Did you watch the game? JHU was dominated in every phase (shots, ground balls, forced turnovers, face-offs).

[baltlaxdad1966]

There's not a reason for anyone to over react. Anyone who thinks Towson ends this season ahead of Hop is a clown. Hop has more weapons on offense than they know what to do with. Epstein is going to take over this thing, let Williams be a wing dodger or have those to work 2 man behind the net and let the rest of the guys fill off ball type roles. System will work out. Nothing worth freaking out about.
Hop to the final 4 lock it in

I'll take action on that if you truly feel that way. Towson has been a superior team over the last 4 years, finishing ahead of JHU in 2016 and 2017 (measured by who made a deeper run in the playoffs). Did you watch the game? JHU was dominated in every phase (shots, ground balls, forced turnovers, face-offs).

Great points. I watched the entire game but I appreciate the metrics you provided. Towson is the real deal, and they've definitely got a chance to be a threat in the NCAA tournament. However, I think it's really a simple minded thing to just assume because the first game of the season went to Towson that the Jays don't end up in front of them. Will be a fun one to track without a doubt but you and I are clearly at odds on this. Cheers to a great season!

[Bandito]

There's not a reason for anyone to over react. Anyone who thinks Towson ends this season ahead of Hop is a clown. Hop has more weapons on offense than they know what to do with. Epstein is going to take over this thing, let Williams be a wing dodger or have those to work 2 man behind the net and let the rest of the guys fill off ball type roles. System will work out. Nothing worth freaking out about.
Hop to the final 4 lock it in

I'll take action on that if you truly feel that way. Towson has been a superior team over the last 4 years, finishing ahead of JHU in 2016 and 2017 (measured by who made a deeper run in the playoffs). Did you watch the game? JHU was dominated in every phase (shots, ground balls, forced turnovers, face-offs).

Great points. I watched the entire game but I appreciate the metrics you provided. Towson is the real deal, and they've definitely got a chance to be a threat in the NCAA tournament. However, I think it's really a simple minded thing to just assume because the first game of the season went to Towson that the Jays don't end up in front of them. Will be a fun one to track without a doubt but you and I are clearly at odds on this. Cheers to a great season!

Hop isn't a top 20 team let alone a tourney team. You are a clown and use emotion rather than facts to prove your invalid point!

[Oak St]

I bought the digital edition of the Faceoff Yearbook for $8—I recommend that option for those who don't want to pay the $20 or whatever it is for the magazine version. Not a whole lot in there that we didn't already know but here are a few Hopkins-related nuggets that are worth passing along:

- They ranked our attack unit #1 in the country. Marr, Williams, and some combination of Epstein and Smith is quite formidable
- Our "Defensive unit," which I think encompasses only close defense (there's another section for "specialists" which includes FOGO, goalie, LSM and SSDM), is ranked #3 in the country behind Duke and Yale. Probably a tad generous, but I think it reflects the experience we have returning down low: One senior (a first team AA), two juniors, a combined 5 years starting experience. 6 if you count Reinson as man-down guy
- Glaringly NOT ranked are midfield and specialists
- Ranked #2 in the conference behind Maryland
- Projected conference player of the year, Jared Bernhardt, was notably shut down by Pat Foley twice last year
- May have mentioned this on LP but apparently Forry lost a lot of weight and is noticeably quicker
- The staff was "happy" with improvements by Keogh and Baskin this fall who are likely to see time at midfield
- Hubler put on weight and looks stronger
- Sounds kind of like Pion is in line as #3 SSDM after transitioning to the position from LSM last year but that still seems unclear to me
- Rapine lost 15 pounds and is "more focused" this year according to Petro
- A handful of guys (Shure, Capobianco-Hogan, Kenneally, Gomez, etc.) are said to be in the mix for PT but I don't see how unless there's an injury
- They're excited about all the goalies but it seems like Darby's job to lose

This is encouraging, particularly to a diehard Bluejay. There is so much talent across the board and, as always, the uncertainty of some exceeding expectations and others underperforming. I hope for the best but, am prepared for disappointment. Best of luck to the Blue and Black!

Drcthru summed it up perfectly for the Nopkins 2019 season. “Hope for the best but prepare for disappointment”

No heart on Saturday, team quit game 1 and they were getting BULLIED all over the field.

[Hawkeye]

team quit game 1

So did the team quit on the game or on the season?

[foreverlax]

There's not a reason for anyone to over react. Anyone who thinks Towson ends this season ahead of Hop is a clown. Hop has more weapons on offense than they know what to do with. Epstein is going to take over this thing, let Williams be a wing dodger or have those to work 2 man behind the net and let the rest of the guys fill off ball type roles. System will work out. Nothing worth freaking out about.
Hop to the final 4 lock it in

I'll take action on that if you truly feel that way. Towson has been a superior team over the last 4 years, finishing ahead of JHU in 2016 and 2017 (measured by who made a deeper run in the playoffs). Did you watch the game? JHU was dominated in every phase (shots, ground balls, forced turnovers, face-offs).

Great points. I watched the entire game but I appreciate the metrics you provided. Towson is the real deal, and they've definitely got a chance to be a threat in the NCAA tournament. However, I think it's really a simple minded thing to just assume because the first game of the season went to Towson that the Jays don't end up in front of them. Will be a fun one to track without a doubt but you and I are clearly at odds on this. Cheers to a great season!

TU vs Hop has only recently become a "rivalry"...it has been Towson's Super Bowl for years. One thing is almost certain, Hopkins will play way better then they did in this game and the Towson will play much worse.

How do you measure who is ahead at the end of the season? Most wins? Who goes the furthest in the tournament? Head to head? Results against common opponents?