UNC at Duke

[molo]

Thursday night’s game will decide who is number one unless you’re like me and think the ACC is the toughest conference but still rank Maryland number one, in which case the winner will determine at least number two. Both teams beat Denver. UNC started to run away from UVA before the eventual losers closed the gap late. Duke edged SU in possibly the best game of the year so far. Both teams have taken care of business against the opponents whom they should have beaten. Duke has the best player in the country, or does UNC or Maryland? Carolina still rotates three guys at the attack spots not manned by Gray while Duke has settled on one Robertson brother along with Sowers and a strong candidate for freshman of the year. UNC boasts the best first midfield outside of Syracuse, and Duke, who can run three units, seems to have settled on two balanced ones. In crunch time, they run Montgomery, Caputo, and Williams, formerly a starting attackman.
Giles-Harris may be the best close dman in DI. If he’s not Bowen is. I give UNC the edge in the goal. If they run into problems against Duke’s freshman FOGO, they won’t be reluctant to use the backup. UNC may have the best ssdm while Duke has depth and experience there.
The short trip doesn’t yield an appreciable home field advantage. In what looks like a toss up, I lean towards the Heels by a goal or two.

[Laxman23]

I am surprised there has not been more response to this thread. As an Ivy parent I am very sad and rather upset that the IL administration nixed this season. An outdoor sport played by every conference other than the IVY league this spring! Well I guess the ACC can sit back and enjoy their games. I am jealous, envious, and grumpy nevertheless I pick UNC. (Still nice to see several IL players having outstanding seasons on several top 10 teams)

[maddog9718]

Thursday night’s game will decide who is number one unless you’re like me and think the ACC is the toughest conference but still rank Maryland number one, in which case the winner will determine at least number two. Both teams beat Denver. UNC started to run away from UVA before the eventual losers closed the gap late. Duke edged SU in possibly the best game of the year so far. Both teams have taken care of business against the opponents whom they should have beaten. Duke has the best player in the country, or does UNC or Maryland? Carolina still rotates three guys at the attack spots not manned by Gray while Duke has settled on one Robertson brother along with Sowers and a strong candidate for freshman of the year. UNC boasts the best first midfield outside of Syracuse, and Duke, who can run three units, seems to have settled on two balanced ones. In crunch time, they run Montgomery, Caputo, and Williams, formerly a starting attackman.
Giles-Harris may be the best close dman in DI. If he’s not Bowen is. I give UNC the edge in the goal. If they run into problems against Duke’s freshman FOGO, they won’t be reluctant to use the backup. UNC may have the best ssdm while Duke has depth and experience there.
The short trip doesn’t yield an appreciable home field advantage. In what looks like a toss up, I lean towards the Heels by a goal or two.

Evenhanded analysis. I'm not confident enough to pick a winner. I am glad that Duke is not coming off of a loss.

[molo]

So the Bear fan goes with the Public Ivy over the Carolina school that looks like an Ivy.

[Laxman23]

Yes Duke and UNC are great schools that play top notch lacrosse. It is just sad that I am watching former IL players making major contributions on ACC and other top schools.
The ACC looks dominant. It is just too bad that the IL teams are sitting home. For the past several years some major powers have stumbled against the IL teams and I can’t help but think that we missed the opportunity to see another “upset” or two because the IL administrations nixed this season. I wonder if the IL can maintain its competitiveness in spite of this season setback.
And yes I like UNC.

[Mr3Putt]

Two deep rosters. Will they go deep off the bench? UNC Creig is at 53% save avg. I see him being a factor. Freshman from Ward Melville. Can he make those special saves? Drake Porter got Syracuse back in the game w making those saves vs Duke last week . I’m going to say no, and that’s the difference Duke gets to Creig. Adler the Duke goalie is steady. Nothing spectacular but has experience. Duke just played Syracuse’s midfield lines which is a good warm up to playing UNC , another advantage. Some lacrosse expert said this week, “I didn’t like Dukes d middies vs Syracuse “. Ummm duh, they just played Syracuse who has 100 horses to choose from. They will learn from that, Caputo and Danowski will clean it up.

Plus you have the two “ SUPER TEAM” additions, Sowers & Gray. Sowers break dances behind the goal who I would let get the ball
but don’t let him break you down at point behind. With Gray he is an off ball nightmare. You have to stay with him.

[sanelaxparent]

I actually think the Duke goalie (Adler) is every inch as impressive as the UNC goalie. Aside from the Denver game he has been great all season, some absolutely incredible saves, including the game winning save at the last second against Syracuse. Really looking forward to some great lacrosse on Thursday night!

[10stone5]

That’s why they brought in Adler.
To make those kinds of saves.
The save Adler made earlier in the Syracuse game
was better, it was a kick, stick save which kept
Duke ahead.
A lot of people are skeptical of this guy because he
played at St. Joe’s and came out of the Florida prep
system, but he’s had some terrific games through his
career, in the spotlight.

[bananas]

Pick UNC 16=14 . Duke's defense meh and UNC offense superb. UNC defense average but Bowen can limit Sowers while Harris will duck Gray. Good goalies, maybe advantage to Adler off experience. .UNC 2 athletic fogos may wear on Naso.

[Comeonman]

I agree that Adler is the better goalie. He’s elite, already an AA. Kreig is good and will get his eventually, but I don’t see him going over 50% in this game. Adler probably won’t either. In terms of D, Bowen is indeed excellent, but no one can check Sowers. He’ll have at least 5 points. So will Gray for that matter, whether JT covers him or not. UNC has the best first midfield in the country. Yes, Carc and Anish, even better than Cuse’s. But Duke is deeper there, where they can run three lines easily. It could come down to possession. I like the two headed UNC unit, while the Duke frosh is great. Barnburner regardless.

[10stone5]

No, or I guess the answer is really yes.

Both goalies are going to get shredded.
Who can make the one or two timely saves ?

[Pensky Material]

No, or I guess the answer is really yes.

Both goalies are going to get shredded.
Who can make the one or two timely saves ?

Timely saves is really what it comes down to in a lot of these games based on the shots these guys are typically seeing. Adler wasn't that good the other night, Syracuse shot the ball really well but he did come up with a couple of really big saves including obviously the one at the end.

[johnnyonthegunpowder]

I'm going with Carolina for the next 3 months.

[faircornell]

Great analysis, Molo, thank you. In looking at the game, I wonder if UNC's ability to rotate FOGOs, or rest their starter will be an advantage for them. I think that it will be. Also, one can't help but wonder if Duke's leaving it all on the field last week might have banged up a few Blue Devils. Personally, I like Duke, but it seems like the consensus on this board is UNC. Should be a great game.

[wgdsr]

Pick UNC 16=14 . Duke's defense meh and UNC offense superb. UNC defense average but Bowen can limit Sowers while Harris will duck Gray. Good goalies, maybe advantage to Adler off experience. .UNC 2 athletic fogos may wear on Naso.

i expect giles-harris to be on gray.

[laxlife]

Having seen Gray and Sowers and Bowen and Giles-Harris a few times this year, I think the Sowers match up is more challenging for UNC. Bowen is excellent, Top 5 but Sowers quickness and speed has be to seen in person. The prototypical ACC pole (long and strong) is not the most effective matchup on Sowers. Likewise with Gray. Both rely on speed/quickness from X. Richmond held Gray to 1/1 with a quick footed, physical, fundamentally solid, smaller D-pole. Sowers moved around the field a lot and created different matchups to avoid that situation and was 3/2 against the Spiders. Advantage Duke IMO. Giles-Harris is a good match-up on Gray but UNC doesn't have to rely as much on Gray because of their midfield while Sowers is more effective when he has the rock. Gray can be more opportunistic given his middies. Advantage UNC.
I think Duke is slightly more balanced. However, the X could determine the outcome. I hope it lives up to its billing and I expect it will.

[pcowlax]

Unless there is something physically wrong with Ginder (or he has been uniquely undercut by the rule changes), he is a more than competent FOGO, 60% as Duke's primary guy in 2020. There should be no reason for Naso to get run down going against two guys when they can swap in Ginder as needed and not lose all that much.

[backerzone]

I agree that Adler is the better goalie. He’s elite, already an AA. Kreig is good and will get his eventually, but I don’t see him going over 50% in this game. Adler probably won’t either. In terms of D, Bowen is indeed excellent, but no one can check Sowers. He’ll have at least 5 points. So will Gray for that matter, whether JT covers him or not. UNC has the best first midfield in the country. Yes, Carc and Anish, even better than Cuse’s. But Duke is deeper there, where they can run three lines easily. It could come down to possession. I like the two headed UNC unit, while the Duke frosh is great. Barnburner regardless.

Disagree- in Adlers career at St Joes he only played 4 games against IVY- B1G, none against ACC. he was under 50%. He made the saves that counted against Syracuse but was pretty ordinary early in the game. AA means nothing against inferior competition. Krieg is going to be a 4 year ACC starter- already showing his stuff.

[10stone5]

I agree that Adler is the better goalie. He’s elite, already an AA. Kreig is good and will get his eventually, but I don’t see him going over 50% in this game. Adler probably won’t either. In terms of D, Bowen is indeed excellent, but no one can check Sowers. He’ll have at least 5 points. So will Gray for that matter, whether JT covers him or not. UNC has the best first midfield in the country. Yes, Carc and Anish, even better than Cuse’s. But Duke is deeper there, where they can run three lines easily. It could come down to possession. I like the two headed UNC unit, while the Duke frosh is great. Barnburner regardless.

Disagree- in Adlers career at St Joes he only played 4 games against IVY- B1G, none against ACC. he was under 50%. He made the saves that counted against Syracuse but was pretty ordinary early in the game. AA means nothing against inferior competition. Krieg is going to be a 4 year ACC starter- already showing his stuff.

Having a limited exposure against Ivy B1G ACC doesn’t
mean Adler didn’t do well against some real good teams,
he’s had some great games against top teams,
one of his best was against Penn last year.
St. Joe’s doesn’t exactly get a regular dose of
B1G Ivies ACC.

[wgdsr]

I agree that Adler is the better goalie. He’s elite, already an AA. Kreig is good and will get his eventually, but I don’t see him going over 50% in this game. Adler probably won’t either. In terms of D, Bowen is indeed excellent, but no one can check Sowers. He’ll have at least 5 points. So will Gray for that matter, whether JT covers him or not. UNC has the best first midfield in the country. Yes, Carc and Anish, even better than Cuse’s. But Duke is deeper there, where they can run three lines easily. It could come down to possession. I like the two headed UNC unit, while the Duke frosh is great. Barnburner regardless.

Disagree- in Adlers career at St Joes he only played 4 games against IVY- B1G, none against ACC. he was under 50%. He made the saves that counted against Syracuse but was pretty ordinary early in the game. AA means nothing against inferior competition. Krieg is going to be a 4 year ACC starter- already showing his stuff.

Having a limited exposure against Ivy B1G ACC doesn’t
mean Adler didn’t do well against some real good teams,
he’s had some great games against top teams,
one of his best was against Penn last year.
St. Joe’s doesn’t exactly get a regular dose of
B1G Ivies ACC.

and krieg's played 2 games against top teams. he's played well.
4 year starter, we'll see.