D1 Men Rankings

[wgdsr]

hoo has beaten 2 teams with winning records so far? what's the list? unc, army, uva and now denver today?

i'm not bothered by losing records... depending who those losses were against. I'm OK with UVA.

For me, based on the Ws and Ls and who those Ws and Ls were against, currently, this is how I see it.

I. North Carolina, Maryland
II. Duke (Though I think Duke is good, really good, I can't put them in the first tier when their resume is Denver and then the rest of their Ws are beating up on numerous not so good teams.)
III. Virginia, Syracuse, Army, Rutgers, Denver

rutgers has beaten no one with a winning record. and they might not by year end.

the only way to couch that is with past perspective. and that means v good umd, 2 and 4 hop 2020, 2 and 4 rutty 2020, psu without ament, tosu without last year's goalies and lately without terefenko, and michigan. not sure i see top 8-9 there. i like gtown instead.

[Matnum PI]

...rutgers has beaten no one with a winning record...

You're right. I'm amending my above.
I. North Carolina, Maryland
I (b). Duke
II. Virginia, Syracuse, Army
III. Rutgers, Denver, Lehigh

[Farfromgeneva]

Well.....Denver just pummeled #4 ranked Georgetown, who hadn’t beaten anyone. This shouldn’t have been much of a surprise to anyone, other than whomever wrote the IL article, as Georgetown was ridiculously over ranked. Regardless, Denver has played a very tough schedule as has another team or 2. They shouldn’t be penalized for it in the rankings over some team that is undefeated against patsies.

G'town was overrated because there's a large faction of people who love undefeated (no matter who those defeats are against) and blow-outs (no matter who those blow-ours are against).

g'town getting beat on pretty hard. hoo has beaten 2 teams with winning records so far?
what's the list? unc, army, uva and now denver today?

g'town hammered what might be a decent villanova team. marquette might not be world beaters, but hung with denver. game was cross country at denver. we'll see how the next one goes and vs loyola.

Welcome to Schrodinger's Rankings, where Georgetown is both "ridiculously" overrated, but also a great win for Denver. If Georgetown had won, the talk would be about how Denver might just not be so good this year. Thankfully, the rankings are only meaningful as time-wasters on internet forums.

Love the critique of “people loving blowouts” as if blowing out teams - no matter the quality - isn’t a pretty good indicator of being a good team!

Assuming the lead is built and the bench is empty Pre Q4. Turning a 3-5 goal margin into 8-10 in the last half of Q4 should be perceived differently IMO.

[Farfromgeneva]

But to only go by a binary result in a small sample size is where I still can’t be all in

Nor I. Binary I'm fine with. Losing in 3 OT hurts so much because... It's a loss. I think binary is the reality of sports. Sample size is different. The amount and quality of data matters. Heck, Ivy teams are 0-0 and they're still well ranked in some Rankings.

Binary works with large data sets and can still provide quality information to stratify cohorts by. But we’re talking more than even a baseball season. This is why some parts of analytics are abused and have “over optimized” pro sports such that people are getting turned off. The humanity and 2nd standard deviation outliers are what we all love about sports, not modeling to having a shot at making the playoffs every year while efficiently utilizing the budget.

[jrn19]

Well.....Denver just pummeled #4 ranked Georgetown, who hadn’t beaten anyone. This shouldn’t have been much of a surprise to anyone, other than whomever wrote the IL article, as Georgetown was ridiculously over ranked. Regardless, Denver has played a very tough schedule as has another team or 2. They shouldn’t be penalized for it in the rankings over some team that is undefeated against patsies.

G'town was overrated because there's a large faction of people who love undefeated (no matter who those defeats are against) and blow-outs (no matter who those blow-ours are against).

g'town getting beat on pretty hard. hoo has beaten 2 teams with winning records so far?
what's the list? unc, army, uva and now denver today?

g'town hammered what might be a decent villanova team. marquette might not be world beaters, but hung with denver. game was cross country at denver. we'll see how the next one goes and vs loyola.

Welcome to Schrodinger's Rankings, where Georgetown is both "ridiculously" overrated, but also a great win for Denver. If Georgetown had won, the talk would be about how Denver might just not be so good this year. Thankfully, the rankings are only meaningful as time-wasters on internet forums.

Love the critique of “people loving blowouts” as if blowing out teams - no matter the quality - isn’t a pretty good indicator of being a good team!

Assuming the lead is built and the bench is empty Pre Q4. Turning a 3-5 goal margin into 8-10 in the last half of Q4 should be perceived differently IMO.

Georgetown beat Villanova, who hasn’t lose since in all conference games and was a pretty solid team last year as well, 19-1. Pretty sure they weren’t turning a 3 goal margin into 8-10 in that one

[Farfromgeneva]

Yep, they emaciated Nova in that game. Very impressive. They really need Nova to pull some kind of strong OOC win out or beat Denver though.

Of course Army crushed some good teams last year and then got whacked by a good bit legacy system unimpressed Marist. Rutgers was once #1 looking awesome mid season only to fail to get a bid. Georgetown needs some help and to not make the first 1/3 of the season their best work. Im not in the overrated camp. I did question top 5 in preseason because I wasn’t sure of the D after Smith, who I believe is out now(?) but find this knee jerk reaction they’re overrated to be superficial.

[Dip&Dunk]

I would add rankings probably mean more this year than any year before and (hopefully) hence with conferences basically playing only in conference games.

I have no problem moving DU up now and Gtown down now. They each earned the move.

Rankings also mean more than just at large bids influence and internet fodder. Recruiting, justification for keeping the sport, coaches’ salaries, coaches’ resumes, out of conference scheduling (or avoiding), and exposure all come into play with rankings.

[HooDat]

...rutgers has beaten no one with a winning record...

You're right. I'm amending my above.
I. North Carolina, Maryland
I (b). Duke
II. Virginia, Syracuse, Army
III. Rutgers, Denver, Lehigh

I like using "clusters" to rank teams. They are far more reflective of the shades of grey that are real life.

I also think you have your updated clusters about right

[Matnum PI]

I like using "clusters" to rank teams. They are far more reflective of the shades of grey that are real life...

especially at this point in the season.

[HopFan16]

Here's the top 20 media poll if you made clusters based on number of votes. I arbitrarily grouped teams within 30 votes of one another, but someone with more data savvy might find that there is a better figure to group by. Grouping by 50 votes, for instance, might be better and would significantly change the below results. This is of course prior to Denver beating GTown:

Tier 1
North Carolina
Duke
Maryland

Tier 2
Georgetown
Syracuse

Tier 3
Rutgers
Army
Notre Dame

Tier 4
Virginia

Tier 5
Lehigh
Denver

Tier 6
Loyola
UMass
Ohio State

Tier 7
Johns Hopkins

Tier 8
Navy
Penn State
Delaware
Vermont
Hofstra

Tier 9
Richmond
UMBC
Albany
Villanova
Bryant
High Point
Marist

[rolldodge]

I would add rankings probably mean more this year than any year before and (hopefully) hence with conferences basically playing only in conference games.

I have no problem moving DU up now and Gtown down now. They each earned the move.

Rankings also mean more than just at large bids influence and internet fodder. Recruiting, justification for keeping the sport, coaches’ salaries, coaches’ resumes, out of conference scheduling (or avoiding), and exposure all come into play with rankings.

All good points.

[10stone5]

I would add rankings probably mean more this year than any year before and (hopefully) hence with conferences basically playing only in conference games.

I have no problem moving DU up now and Gtown down now. They each earned the move.

Rankings also mean more than just at large bids influence and internet fodder. Recruiting, justification for keeping the sport, coaches’ salaries, coaches’ resumes, out of conference scheduling (or avoiding), and exposure all come into play with rankings.

All good points.

Rankings will come into play, for sure.
RPI is going to be a disaster, worse than in most years.

[random observer]

Yep, they emaciated Nova in that game. Very impressive. They really need Nova to pull some kind of strong OOC win out or beat Denver though.

Of course Army crushed some good teams last year and then got whacked by a good bit legacy system unimpressed Marist. Rutgers was once #1 looking awesome mid season only to fail to get a bid. Georgetown needs some help and to not make the first 1/3 of the season their best work. Im not in the overrated camp. I did question top 5 in preseason because I wasn’t sure of the D after Smith, who I believe is out now(?) but find this knee jerk reaction they’re overrated to be superficial.

The Georgetown D looked pretty decent yesterday, even without factoring they were missing probably the best defender in the country (or #2, depending on how you view Will Bowen). The offense, which has a lot of youth being worked in, was the issue yesterday. They were plagued by poor shooting, and they don't have the same type of alpha presence from X that the top teams have.

[rolldodge]

I like using "clusters" to rank teams. They are far more reflective of the shades of grey that are real life...

especially at this point in the season.

You can actually be sort of "scientific" about the clustering. For example, the media poll has 21 voters. Given 20 points for #1 and 1 point for #20, if the voters all voted the same, #1 would have 420 points and #20 would have 21 points. and then the rest would be evenly distributed between. But since they don't all vote the same, you can see where there is consensus and where there is not in the clustering:

#1 420
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- 403 North Carolina
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#2 399
- 398 Duke
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- 392 Maryland
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#3 378
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#4 357
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- 341 Georgetown
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#5 336
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- 330 Syracuse
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#6 315
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- 300 Rutgers
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- 296 Army
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#7 294
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- 278 Notre Dame
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#8 273
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- 268 Virginia
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#9 252
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#10 231
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- 228 Lehigh, Denver
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#11 210
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#12 189
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#13 168
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- 159 Loyola
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#14 147
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- 139 Umass
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- 132 Ohio State
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#15 126
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- 110 Johns Hopkins
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#16 105
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#17 84
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- 74 Navy
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- 69 Penn State
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#18 63 Deleware
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- 53 Vermont
- 52 Hofstra
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#19 42


What you end up with the is the following "top 20"

1.8 UNC
2.2 Duke
2.4 Maryland
4.8 Georgetown
5.3 Syracuse
6.7 Rutgers
6.9 Army
7.7 Notre Dame
8.3 Virginia
10.2 Denver
10.2 Lehigh
13.5 Loyola
14.4 Umass
14.8 Ohio State
15.7 Johns Hopkins
17.5 Navy
17.7 Penn State
18.0 Deleware
18.5 Vermont
18.6 Hofstra

[Matnum PI]

You can actually be sort of "scientific" about the clustering. For example, the media poll has 21 voters. Given 20 points for #1 and 1 point for #20, if the voters all voted the same, #1 would have 420 points and #20 would have 21 points. and then the rest would be evenly distributed between. But since they don't all vote the same, you can see where there is consensus and where there is not in the clustering:

#1 420...

I like that. Interesting...

[HooDat]

What you end up with the is the following "top 20"

1.8 UNC
2.2 Duke
2.4 Maryland
4.8 Georgetown
5.3 Syracuse
6.7 Rutgers
6.9 Army
7.7 Notre Dame
8.3 Virginia
10.2 Denver
10.2 Lehigh
13.5 Loyola
14.4 Umass
14.8 Ohio State
15.7 Johns Hopkins
17.5 Navy
17.7 Penn State
18.0 Deleware
18.5 Vermont
18.6 Hofstra

So if I "eyeball" the clusters from your analysis I come up with:

Cluster 1: UNC / Duke / UMD
Cluster 2: GT / Cuse
Cluster 3: Rutgers / Army / ND / UVA
Cluster 4: Denver / Lehigh
Cluster 5: Loyola / Umass / OSU / Hop
Cluster 6: Navy / PSU / DE / VT / Hofstra

[runrussellrun]

Here's the top 20 media poll if you made clusters based on number of votes. I arbitrarily grouped teams within 30 votes of one another, but someone with more data savvy might find that there is a better figure to group by. Grouping by 50 votes, for instance, might be better and would significantly change the below results. This is of course prior to Denver beating GTown:

Tier 1
North Carolina
Duke
Maryland

Tier 2
Georgetown
Syracuse

Tier 3
Rutgers
Army
Notre Dame

Tier 4
Virginia

Tier 5
Lehigh
Denver

Tier 6
Loyola
UMass
Ohio State

Tier 7
Johns Hopkins

Tier 8
Navy
Penn State
Delaware
Vermont
Hofstra

Tier 9
Richmond
UMBC
Albany
Villanova
Bryant
High Point
Marist

Boston U. in what tier ? 1 goal game with Army up until the last minute. Just rolled Maryland OC lead purple people eaters on the hill. Ask Reppert how good the team you ignored is. lazy, you can do better.

[jrn19]

Here's the top 20 media poll if you made clusters based on number of votes. I arbitrarily grouped teams within 30 votes of one another, but someone with more data savvy might find that there is a better figure to group by. Grouping by 50 votes, for instance, might be better and would significantly change the below results. This is of course prior to Denver beating GTown:

Tier 1
North Carolina
Duke
Maryland

Tier 2
Georgetown
Syracuse

Tier 3
Rutgers
Army
Notre Dame

Tier 4
Virginia

Tier 5
Lehigh
Denver

Tier 6
Loyola
UMass
Ohio State

Tier 7
Johns Hopkins

Tier 8
Navy
Penn State
Delaware
Vermont
Hofstra

Tier 9
Richmond
UMBC
Albany
Villanova
Bryant
High Point
Marist

Boston U. in what tier ? 1 goal game with Army up until the last minute. Just rolled Maryland OC lead purple people eaters on the hill. Ask Reppert how good the team you ignored is. lazy, you can do better.

No tier, because they didn’t get any votes in the media poll. He literally said it was based off the votes in the media poll.

[runrussellrun]

"YOU" can be plural, no?

[Denver14]

"YOU" can be plural, no?

that would be ya'll I think.