Orange Duce

[Kismet]

Dumb fooKism never gets old. This will happen when monkeys fly out of of my ass.

Murkowski will win overwhelmingly if Trump tries to "derail" her.
The key factor is that it's 4 candidates who move to the general.

She won easily as a WRITE-IN candidate last time the GOP tried to unseat her (and this explains her current independence). I doubt she's worried much about the former DOPUS. He will never show up in Alaska in any case and you can take that to the bank. Too long a plane ride and no posh hotel to stay overnight.

[MDlaxfan76]

Dumb fooKism never gets old. This will happen when monkeys fly out of of my ass.

Murkowski will win overwhelmingly if Trump tries to "derail" her.
The key factor is that it's 4 candidates who move to the general.

She won easily as a WRITE-IN candidate last time the GOP tried to unseat her (and this explains her current independence). I doubt she's worried much about the former DOPUS. He will never show up in Alaska in any case and you can take that to the bank. Too long a plane ride and no posh hotel to stay overnight.

must be some golf courses somewhere...but watch out for the bears, much worse than alligators...

[Farfromgeneva]

2 more Trump associates are being looked at by Vance and Co.

rent-free apartment...how was that reported for tax purposes? Sure sounds like the squeeze is on to force cooperation.

>> Investigators with Manhattan District Attorney Cyrus Vance’s office have asked about Barry Weisselberg’s role in managing two New York ice skating rinks and a Central Park carousel for the Trump Organization, according to the people, who asked not to be identified discussing the confidential probe. They have also been looking at Jack Weisselberg, a director at Ladder Capital Corp., a commercial real estate lender that made several loans to the Trump Organization in the past decade. <<

That name has stuck out like a sore thumb. I questioned it a few years ago..... time will tell if it means anything.

Ladder is public. Plenty of filings folks can see. Brian Harris was a CMBS trader who pulled like $150mm out of UBS when they brought back Dillon Read in the 2000s to house certain Us operations. The Swiss found out about his contract and we’re furious with their Us counterparts and laid blame for a big slug of RMBS losses on him as excuse yo throw him out. He started Ladder with $50mm of his own dough and a little other money and was public a few years later as a mortgage reit. They’re a non bank CRE lender and investment house ( the balance sheet owns CRE backed bonds, mezzanine debt plus the IO strips from deal they contribute loans to).

Brian screwed his #2, Greta Guggenheim, who really tan the business operationally. You can find some stuff about her suing. But it kind of makes sense as a non bank lender that they’d take Trump risk when others tied to larger public banks wouldn’t. The head of the shop isn’t a originator or relationship guy or even A underwriter, he trades data tapes (or did, very successfully), so character (the 5th C in the five Cs of credit) is less valued.

Kids of reit execs are hired all over the CMBS and RE IBanking units commonly so I don’t think the kid getting hired into Ladder is a big deal. You’d have to investigate all of wall st if your going to have a problem with that. I’m fact it’s a large issue in public finance,the ibankers who solicit to underwrite bond deals for cities, counties and states to have kids of potential clients working for them.

[Farfromgeneva]

2 more Trump associates are being looked at by Vance and Co.

rent-free apartment...how was that reported for tax purposes? Sure sounds like the squeeze is on to force cooperation.

>> Investigators with Manhattan District Attorney Cyrus Vance’s office have asked about Barry Weisselberg’s role in managing two New York ice skating rinks and a Central Park carousel for the Trump Organization, according to the people, who asked not to be identified discussing the confidential probe. They have also been looking at Jack Weisselberg, a director at Ladder Capital Corp., a commercial real estate lender that made several loans to the Trump Organization in the past decade. <<

That name has stuck out like a sore thumb. I questioned it a few years ago..... time will tell if it means anything.

yes, I'd be betting on some fishy stuff there...

https://www.globalcapital.com/article/k ... s-ibs-face

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.thestr ... d-10432967

https://www.euromoney.com/article/b1322 ... -franchise

The woman who really built the business IMO

https://commercialobserver.com/2015/08/ ... g-capital/

[Farfromgeneva]

Some people think Cucumbers some like pickles...

What about you cradle? Only room for hamsters in your poop shoot.

[MDlaxfan76]

2 more Trump associates are being looked at by Vance and Co.

rent-free apartment...how was that reported for tax purposes? Sure sounds like the squeeze is on to force cooperation.

>> Investigators with Manhattan District Attorney Cyrus Vance’s office have asked about Barry Weisselberg’s role in managing two New York ice skating rinks and a Central Park carousel for the Trump Organization, according to the people, who asked not to be identified discussing the confidential probe. They have also been looking at Jack Weisselberg, a director at Ladder Capital Corp., a commercial real estate lender that made several loans to the Trump Organization in the past decade. <<

That name has stuck out like a sore thumb. I questioned it a few years ago..... time will tell if it means anything.

yes, I'd be betting on some fishy stuff there...

https://www.globalcapital.com/article/k ... s-ibs-face

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.thestr ... d-10432967

https://www.euromoney.com/article/b1322 ... -franchise

The woman who really built the business IMO

https://commercialobserver.com/2015/08/ ... g-capital/

https://wsiegelman.medium.com/trump-cre ... 8d97d2e2dc

[MDlaxfan76]

2 more Trump associates are being looked at by Vance and Co.

rent-free apartment...how was that reported for tax purposes? Sure sounds like the squeeze is on to force cooperation.

>> Investigators with Manhattan District Attorney Cyrus Vance’s office have asked about Barry Weisselberg’s role in managing two New York ice skating rinks and a Central Park carousel for the Trump Organization, according to the people, who asked not to be identified discussing the confidential probe. They have also been looking at Jack Weisselberg, a director at Ladder Capital Corp., a commercial real estate lender that made several loans to the Trump Organization in the past decade. <<

That name has stuck out like a sore thumb. I questioned it a few years ago..... time will tell if it means anything.

Ladder is public. Plenty of filings folks can see. Brian Harris was a CMBS trader who pulled like $150mm out of UBS when they brought back Dillon Read in the 2000s to house certain Us operations. The Swiss found out about his contract and we’re furious with their Us counterparts and laid blame for a big slug of RMBS losses on him as excuse yo throw him out. He started Ladder with $50mm of his own dough and a little other money and was public a few years later as a mortgage reit. They’re a non bank CRE lender and investment house ( the balance sheet owns CRE backed bonds, mezzanine debt plus the IO strips from deal they contribute loans to).

Brian screwed his #2, Greta Guggenheim, who really tan the business operationally. You can find some stuff about her suing. But it kind of makes sense as a non bank lender that they’d take Trump risk when others tied to larger public banks wouldn’t. The head of the shop isn’t a originator or relationship guy or even A underwriter, he trades data tapes (or did, very successfully), so character (the 5th C in the five Cs of credit) is less valued.

Kids of reit execs are hired all over the CMBS and RE IBanking units commonly so I don’t think the kid getting hired into Ladder is a big deal. You’d have to investigate all of wall st if your going to have a problem with that. I’m fact it’s a large issue in public finance,the ibankers who solicit to underwrite bond deals for cities, counties and states to have kids of potential clients working for them.

Yes, wouldn't think the hiring is an issue. The more interesting aspect would be if there were actual shenanigans
(versus just aggressive lending) and the kid (Jack) of Trump's CFO was directly or sufficiently involved in that...again, the personal squeeze on the CFO to cooperate.

[Typical Lax Dad]

2 more Trump associates are being looked at by Vance and Co.

rent-free apartment...how was that reported for tax purposes? Sure sounds like the squeeze is on to force cooperation.

>> Investigators with Manhattan District Attorney Cyrus Vance’s office have asked about Barry Weisselberg’s role in managing two New York ice skating rinks and a Central Park carousel for the Trump Organization, according to the people, who asked not to be identified discussing the confidential probe. They have also been looking at Jack Weisselberg, a director at Ladder Capital Corp., a commercial real estate lender that made several loans to the Trump Organization in the past decade. <<

That name has stuck out like a sore thumb. I questioned it a few years ago..... time will tell if it means anything.

Ladder is public. Plenty of filings folks can see. Brian Harris was a CMBS trader who pulled like $150mm out of UBS when they brought back Dillon Read in the 2000s to house certain Us operations. The Swiss found out about his contract and we’re furious with their Us counterparts and laid blame for a big slug of RMBS losses on him as excuse yo throw him out. He started Ladder with $50mm of his own dough and a little other money and was public a few years later as a mortgage reit. They’re a non bank CRE lender and investment house ( the balance sheet owns CRE backed bonds, mezzanine debt plus the IO strips from deal they contribute loans to).

Brian screwed his #2, Greta Guggenheim, who really tan the business operationally. You can find some stuff about her suing. But it kind of makes sense as a non bank lender that they’d take Trump risk when others tied to larger public banks wouldn’t. The head of the shop isn’t a originator or relationship guy or even A underwriter, he trades data tapes (or did, very successfully), so character (the 5th C in the five Cs of credit) is less valued.

Kids of reit execs are hired all over the CMBS and RE IBanking units commonly so I don’t think the kid getting hired into Ladder is a big deal. You’d have to investigate all of wall st if your going to have a problem with that. I’m fact it’s a large issue in public finance,the ibankers who solicit to underwrite bond deals for cities, counties and states to have kids of potential clients working for them.

Yes. It just stuck out to me of all the lenders across the country what are the odds of a Ladder Capital. Not only is character less valued, so is credit in Trump’s case.

[Farfromgeneva]

2 more Trump associates are being looked at by Vance and Co.

rent-free apartment...how was that reported for tax purposes? Sure sounds like the squeeze is on to force cooperation.

>> Investigators with Manhattan District Attorney Cyrus Vance’s office have asked about Barry Weisselberg’s role in managing two New York ice skating rinks and a Central Park carousel for the Trump Organization, according to the people, who asked not to be identified discussing the confidential probe. They have also been looking at Jack Weisselberg, a director at Ladder Capital Corp., a commercial real estate lender that made several loans to the Trump Organization in the past decade. <<

That name has stuck out like a sore thumb. I questioned it a few years ago..... time will tell if it means anything.

yes, I'd be betting on some fishy stuff there...

https://www.globalcapital.com/article/k ... s-ibs-face

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.thestr ... d-10432967

https://www.euromoney.com/article/b1322 ... -franchise

The woman who really built the business IMO

https://commercialobserver.com/2015/08/ ... g-capital/

https://wsiegelman.medium.com/trump-cre ... 8d97d2e2dc

I know most of the folks in the chart. But pulling in bonderman, Ross and Chetrit, why not Rexler
And Moinan while at it because aside from Binderman who runs a $200Bn asset manager are considered part of the NYC tribe of real estate folks. They all cross all the time.

I would note and these Burma lists never capture it, most of that debt isn’t held on balance sheet but, like 40 wall, is securitized and sold in CMBS bonds so they have zero interest in those loans having sold the loan into a cmbs trust at a premium to par. That business could’ve been funded by anyone,it’s the balance sheet debt, bridge loans, mezz debt, etc that needs to be scrutinized not all the debt.

Meridian is a sleazy brokerage shop who works with everyone but those “funders” listed are brokers, never even table fund the deals so that’s off base.

Beech st had financial backers but wasn’t started by those shops it was started by a woman who’s name is iscaping me now but specifically to be a DUS (Fannie Mae license multifamily lender). She had a DUS Fannie/Freddie licensed financing background and I think a stint at a GSE.For a long time they stopped issuing licenses and many had been absorbed by large banks but this woman got whole of gone which was gold itself and started up
The business with their capital but it was always scale up and sell to large bank model. Never to be a stand-alone like a ladder, who does not have license to finance apartments with Fannie or Freddie insurance.

I don’t know this link seems like very superficial to me but I was balls deep in parts of those businesses in the 2000s so had a birds eye view.

[Farfromgeneva]

2 more Trump associates are being looked at by Vance and Co.

rent-free apartment...how was that reported for tax purposes? Sure sounds like the squeeze is on to force cooperation.

>> Investigators with Manhattan District Attorney Cyrus Vance’s office have asked about Barry Weisselberg’s role in managing two New York ice skating rinks and a Central Park carousel for the Trump Organization, according to the people, who asked not to be identified discussing the confidential probe. They have also been looking at Jack Weisselberg, a director at Ladder Capital Corp., a commercial real estate lender that made several loans to the Trump Organization in the past decade. <<

That name has stuck out like a sore thumb. I questioned it a few years ago..... time will tell if it means anything.

Ladder is public. Plenty of filings folks can see. Brian Harris was a CMBS trader who pulled like $150mm out of UBS when they brought back Dillon Read in the 2000s to house certain Us operations. The Swiss found out about his contract and we’re furious with their Us counterparts and laid blame for a big slug of RMBS losses on him as excuse yo throw him out. He started Ladder with $50mm of his own dough and a little other money and was public a few years later as a mortgage reit. They’re a non bank CRE lender and investment house ( the balance sheet owns CRE backed bonds, mezzanine debt plus the IO strips from deal they contribute loans to).

Brian screwed his #2, Greta Guggenheim, who really tan the business operationally. You can find some stuff about her suing. But it kind of makes sense as a non bank lender that they’d take Trump risk when others tied to larger public banks wouldn’t. The head of the shop isn’t a originator or relationship guy or even A underwriter, he trades data tapes (or did, very successfully), so character (the 5th C in the five Cs of credit) is less valued.

Kids of reit execs are hired all over the CMBS and RE IBanking units commonly so I don’t think the kid getting hired into Ladder is a big deal. You’d have to investigate all of wall st if your going to have a problem with that. I’m fact it’s a large issue in public finance,the ibankers who solicit to underwrite bond deals for cities, counties and states to have kids of potential clients working for them.

Yes, wouldn't think the hiring is an issue. The more interesting aspect would be if there were actual shenanigans
(versus just aggressive lending) and the kid (Jack) of Trump's CFO was directly or sufficiently involved in that...again, the personal squeeze on the CFO to cooperate.

I think they’re just putting the clamps on the dad.

One thing to clarify when they say director they’re talking operating level title like MD, D, VP, AVP, Assoc, Analyst n not like board of directors. He probably did cover trump org if he was an originator.

[Farfromgeneva]

2 more Trump associates are being looked at by Vance and Co.

rent-free apartment...how was that reported for tax purposes? Sure sounds like the squeeze is on to force cooperation.

>> Investigators with Manhattan District Attorney Cyrus Vance’s office have asked about Barry Weisselberg’s role in managing two New York ice skating rinks and a Central Park carousel for the Trump Organization, according to the people, who asked not to be identified discussing the confidential probe. They have also been looking at Jack Weisselberg, a director at Ladder Capital Corp., a commercial real estate lender that made several loans to the Trump Organization in the past decade. <<

That name has stuck out like a sore thumb. I questioned it a few years ago..... time will tell if it means anything.

Ladder is public. Plenty of filings folks can see. Brian Harris was a CMBS trader who pulled like $150mm out of UBS when they brought back Dillon Read in the 2000s to house certain Us operations. The Swiss found out about his contract and we’re furious with their Us counterparts and laid blame for a big slug of RMBS losses on him as excuse yo throw him out. He started Ladder with $50mm of his own dough and a little other money and was public a few years later as a mortgage reit. They’re a non bank CRE lender and investment house ( the balance sheet owns CRE backed bonds, mezzanine debt plus the IO strips from deal they contribute loans to).

Brian screwed his #2, Greta Guggenheim, who really tan the business operationally. You can find some stuff about her suing. But it kind of makes sense as a non bank lender that they’d take Trump risk when others tied to larger public banks wouldn’t. The head of the shop isn’t a originator or relationship guy or even A underwriter, he trades data tapes (or did, very successfully), so character (the 5th C in the five Cs of credit) is less valued.

Kids of reit execs are hired all over the CMBS and RE IBanking units commonly so I don’t think the kid getting hired into Ladder is a big deal. You’d have to investigate all of wall st if your going to have a problem with that. I’m fact it’s a large issue in public finance,the ibankers who solicit to underwrite bond deals for cities, counties and states to have kids of potential clients working for them.

Yes. It just stuck out to me of all the lenders across the country what are the odds of a Ladder Capital. Not only is character less valued, so is credit in Trump’s case.

Well again that’s the difference between balance sheet/relationship lending which leans less on quantitative , to some degree, variables And “originate and distribute” lending (“capital markets lending”) which is winning the loan assignment and ensuring it can be sold profitably in a securitization. The latter only factors quantitative and tends to get underwritten to the box of what fits in bond deals. That’s where numbers can be manipulated. On fixed rate deals sponsor quality is less valued because you’re supposed to underwrite the lower of market or actual rental rates and occupancy for that market and higher of trailing three actual or current expenses to get to a baseline cash flow a bond investor can count on for ten years. They’re not worrying about a owner backfilling a large tenant or some other operational risk because the property is underwritten to market conditions.

You see this and think Capital markets lending is bs but I can’t tell you how many community it bank execs would tell me that borrower is “money good” or “weve banked the family for years” ignoring facts on the ground only to take big losses, CEOs lose jobs and sometimes the banks fail. So balance is needed, not over-reliance on softer factors or hard quantitative ones

[Typical Lax Dad]

2 more Trump associates are being looked at by Vance and Co.

rent-free apartment...how was that reported for tax purposes? Sure sounds like the squeeze is on to force cooperation.

>> Investigators with Manhattan District Attorney Cyrus Vance’s office have asked about Barry Weisselberg’s role in managing two New York ice skating rinks and a Central Park carousel for the Trump Organization, according to the people, who asked not to be identified discussing the confidential probe. They have also been looking at Jack Weisselberg, a director at Ladder Capital Corp., a commercial real estate lender that made several loans to the Trump Organization in the past decade. <<

That name has stuck out like a sore thumb. I questioned it a few years ago..... time will tell if it means anything.

Ladder is public. Plenty of filings folks can see. Brian Harris was a CMBS trader who pulled like $150mm out of UBS when they brought back Dillon Read in the 2000s to house certain Us operations. The Swiss found out about his contract and we’re furious with their Us counterparts and laid blame for a big slug of RMBS losses on him as excuse yo throw him out. He started Ladder with $50mm of his own dough and a little other money and was public a few years later as a mortgage reit. They’re a non bank CRE lender and investment house ( the balance sheet owns CRE backed bonds, mezzanine debt plus the IO strips from deal they contribute loans to).

Brian screwed his #2, Greta Guggenheim, who really tan the business operationally. You can find some stuff about her suing. But it kind of makes sense as a non bank lender that they’d take Trump risk when others tied to larger public banks wouldn’t. The head of the shop isn’t a originator or relationship guy or even A underwriter, he trades data tapes (or did, very successfully), so character (the 5th C in the five Cs of credit) is less valued.

Kids of reit execs are hired all over the CMBS and RE IBanking units commonly so I don’t think the kid getting hired into Ladder is a big deal. You’d have to investigate all of wall st if your going to have a problem with that. I’m fact it’s a large issue in public finance,the ibankers who solicit to underwrite bond deals for cities, counties and states to have kids of potential clients working for them.

Yes. It just stuck out to me of all the lenders across the country what are the odds of a Ladder Capital. Not only is character less valued, so is credit in Trump’s case.

Well again that’s the difference between balance sheet/relationship lending which leans less on quantitative , to some degree, variables And “originate and distribute” lending (“capital markets lending”) which is winning the loan assignment and ensuring it can be sold profitably in a securitization. The latter only factors quantitative and tends to get underwritten to the box of what fits in bond deals. That’s where numbers can be manipulated. On fixed rate deals sponsor quality is less valued because you’re supposed to underwrite the lower of market or actual rental rates and occupancy for that market and higher of trailing three actual or current expenses to get to a baseline cash flow a bond investor can count on for ten years. They’re not worrying about a owner backfilling a large tenant or some other operational risk because the property is underwritten to market conditions.

You see this and think Capital markets lending is bs but I can’t tell you how many community it bank execs would tell me that borrower is “money good” or “weve banked the family for years” ignoring facts on the ground only to take big losses, CEOs lose jobs and sometimes the banks fail. So balance is needed, not over-reliance on softer factors or hard quantitative ones

Yes. Three frauds I saw were “money good” loans.

[Farfromgeneva]

Worked on a small bank sale for a P&C insurance owner
Around three years back who had exposure to this regional gas distributor in southeast/central PA

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.pennli ... utType=amp

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wgal.c ... n/20977028

Then a real estate owner in WNY for a Buffalo area bank:

https://buffalonews.com/news/local/u-s- ... de87a.html

[MDlaxfan76]

2 more Trump associates are being looked at by Vance and Co.

rent-free apartment...how was that reported for tax purposes? Sure sounds like the squeeze is on to force cooperation.

>> Investigators with Manhattan District Attorney Cyrus Vance’s office have asked about Barry Weisselberg’s role in managing two New York ice skating rinks and a Central Park carousel for the Trump Organization, according to the people, who asked not to be identified discussing the confidential probe. They have also been looking at Jack Weisselberg, a director at Ladder Capital Corp., a commercial real estate lender that made several loans to the Trump Organization in the past decade. <<

That name has stuck out like a sore thumb. I questioned it a few years ago..... time will tell if it means anything.

Ladder is public. Plenty of filings folks can see. Brian Harris was a CMBS trader who pulled like $150mm out of UBS when they brought back Dillon Read in the 2000s to house certain Us operations. The Swiss found out about his contract and we’re furious with their Us counterparts and laid blame for a big slug of RMBS losses on him as excuse yo throw him out. He started Ladder with $50mm of his own dough and a little other money and was public a few years later as a mortgage reit. They’re a non bank CRE lender and investment house ( the balance sheet owns CRE backed bonds, mezzanine debt plus the IO strips from deal they contribute loans to).

Brian screwed his #2, Greta Guggenheim, who really tan the business operationally. You can find some stuff about her suing. But it kind of makes sense as a non bank lender that they’d take Trump risk when others tied to larger public banks wouldn’t. The head of the shop isn’t a originator or relationship guy or even A underwriter, he trades data tapes (or did, very successfully), so character (the 5th C in the five Cs of credit) is less valued.

Kids of reit execs are hired all over the CMBS and RE IBanking units commonly so I don’t think the kid getting hired into Ladder is a big deal. You’d have to investigate all of wall st if your going to have a problem with that. I’m fact it’s a large issue in public finance,the ibankers who solicit to underwrite bond deals for cities, counties and states to have kids of potential clients working for them.

Yes. It just stuck out to me of all the lenders across the country what are the odds of a Ladder Capital. Not only is character less valued, so is credit in Trump’s case.

Well again that’s the difference between balance sheet/relationship lending which leans less on quantitative , to some degree, variables And “originate and distribute” lending (“capital markets lending”) which is winning the loan assignment and ensuring it can be sold profitably in a securitization. The latter only factors quantitative and tends to get underwritten to the box of what fits in bond deals. That’s where numbers can be manipulated. On fixed rate deals sponsor quality is less valued because you’re supposed to underwrite the lower of market or actual rental rates and occupancy for that market and higher of trailing three actual or current expenses to get to a baseline cash flow a bond investor can count on for ten years. They’re not worrying about a owner backfilling a large tenant or some other operational risk because the property is underwritten to market conditions.

You see this and think Capital markets lending is bs but I can’t tell you how many community it bank execs would tell me that borrower is “money good” or “weve banked the family for years” ignoring facts on the ground only to take big losses, CEOs lose jobs and sometimes the banks fail. So balance is needed, not over-reliance on softer factors or hard quantitative ones

I think that's the point, character and credit are not valued when pooled together and only market risk matters. It enables bad character and bad credit to get a pass based on current cash flows in the context of all cash flows for that market.

Basically, there are 3 legs to the stool in most lending, this type focuses really on only one. And it can. Because it passes on the risk and that risk gets pooled. The originators make out great...as do the funds, until they don't...and when they don't, they close up and do it again.

Obviously, "character" loans do indeed go bad when insufficient attention is paid to the other legs of the stool, the actual credit and the market risks being "trumped" by positive "character" assumptions. The other mistake often made is to assume tenure of a relationship without issues (eg 'we've banked the family for years') is the same as the actual character of the decision makers during periods of adversity. When push came to shove, did they, will they, make good? Or will they run from the responsibility?

Historically, I think it's fair to say that we most often get in trouble when the incentives are to originate volume, with no accountability for quality.

[Farfromgeneva]

Spot on. But the arbiters are supposed to be are the high risk bond investors who get paid to take the marginal risk of loss. In CMBs they even get to preview the pool, have kick out calls with the shelf/originators and negotiate, for a price, to remove loans they don’t like (up to a degree). They consist of funds that have pension money and other savings of individual retail investors and they don’t do their job. It becomes a declining spread/yield negative feedback loop in these businesses until it blows up. In CMBS in 1998 fall after a few crises and in 2008, so stil expecting another one any.time now. Nearly ruined Nomura and Mizuho in the late 90s and blew up Lehman and nearly Wachovia as well in late 2000s. So if the lenders are making loans with risk to the investor then it’s these bonds investors who are supposed to be more circumspect and better fiduciaries than they’ve been of pension money IMO. If they pushed back more the lenders would tighten up their standards quickly. But when they modeled 8% expected IRR on their books and have to own liquid Corp and treasury bonds paying .5%-3% dragging that down, are shrinking equity holdings and alternatives like RE and Timber and other commodities aren’t working they say “sure I’ll take that first loss piece of $50-$60mm on a $800mm-$1Bn bond deal with a base 0% loss 9%-10% IRR even if I don’t like how underwriting quality has diminished over the preceding 5yrs”. Then the lender keeps making loans to clear the market and sell them off until it doesn’t work.

[Farfromgeneva]

2 more Trump associates are being looked at by Vance and Co.

rent-free apartment...how was that reported for tax purposes? Sure sounds like the squeeze is on to force cooperation.

>> Investigators with Manhattan District Attorney Cyrus Vance’s office have asked about Barry Weisselberg’s role in managing two New York ice skating rinks and a Central Park carousel for the Trump Organization, according to the people, who asked not to be identified discussing the confidential probe. They have also been looking at Jack Weisselberg, a director at Ladder Capital Corp., a commercial real estate lender that made several loans to the Trump Organization in the past decade. <<

That name has stuck out like a sore thumb. I questioned it a few years ago..... time will tell if it means anything.

Ladder is public. Plenty of filings folks can see. Brian Harris was a CMBS trader who pulled like $150mm out of UBS when they brought back Dillon Read in the 2000s to house certain Us operations. The Swiss found out about his contract and we’re furious with their Us counterparts and laid blame for a big slug of RMBS losses on him as excuse yo throw him out. He started Ladder with $50mm of his own dough and a little other money and was public a few years later as a mortgage reit. They’re a non bank CRE lender and investment house ( the balance sheet owns CRE backed bonds, mezzanine debt plus the IO strips from deal they contribute loans to).

Brian screwed his #2, Greta Guggenheim, who really tan the business operationally. You can find some stuff about her suing. But it kind of makes sense as a non bank lender that they’d take Trump risk when others tied to larger public banks wouldn’t. The head of the shop isn’t a originator or relationship guy or even A underwriter, he trades data tapes (or did, very successfully), so character (the 5th C in the five Cs of credit) is less valued.

Kids of reit execs are hired all over the CMBS and RE IBanking units commonly so I don’t think the kid getting hired into Ladder is a big deal. You’d have to investigate all of wall st if your going to have a problem with that. I’m fact it’s a large issue in public finance,the ibankers who solicit to underwrite bond deals for cities, counties and states to have kids of potential clients working for them.

Yes. It just stuck out to me of all the lenders across the country what are the odds of a Ladder Capital. Not only is character less valued, so is credit in Trump’s case.

Well again that’s the difference between balance sheet/relationship lending which leans less on quantitative , to some degree, variables And “originate and distribute” lending (“capital markets lending”) which is winning the loan assignment and ensuring it can be sold profitably in a securitization. The latter only factors quantitative and tends to get underwritten to the box of what fits in bond deals. That’s where numbers can be manipulated. On fixed rate deals sponsor quality is less valued because you’re supposed to underwrite the lower of market or actual rental rates and occupancy for that market and higher of trailing three actual or current expenses to get to a baseline cash flow a bond investor can count on for ten years. They’re not worrying about a owner backfilling a large tenant or some other operational risk because the property is underwritten to market conditions.

You see this and think Capital markets lending is bs but I can’t tell you how many community it bank execs would tell me that borrower is “money good” or “weve banked the family for years” ignoring facts on the ground only to take big losses, CEOs lose jobs and sometimes the banks fail. So balance is needed, not over-reliance on softer factors or hard quantitative ones

I think that's the point, character and credit are not valued when pooled together and only market risk matters. It enables bad character and bad credit to get a pass based on current cash flows in the context of all cash flows for that market.

Basically, there are 3 legs to the stool in most lending, this type focuses really on only one. And it can. Because it passes on the risk and that risk gets pooled. The originators make out great...as do the funds, until they don't...and when they don't, they close up and do it again.

Obviously, "character" loans do indeed go bad when insufficient attention is paid to the other legs of the stool, the actual credit and the market risks being "trumped" by positive "character" assumptions. The other mistake often made is to assume tenure of a relationship without issues (eg 'we've banked the family for years') is the same as the actual character of the decision makers during periods of adversity. When push came to shove, did they, will they, make good? Or will they run from the responsibility?

Historically, I think it's fair to say that we most often get in trouble when the incentives are to originate volume, with no accountability for quality.

Great example would be a western N.C. bank formerly in Hickory, NC which was once the furniture capital of the country, between Charlotte and Asheville geographically. Warren Buffett owner the stock and touted it for a long time. Then furniture slowly heads to China, even one of the families had been diversifying into backing business lenders like Capitala and others named Broyhill (Hunt is the one I’ve met). So a group headed by a guy named Brian Simpson was buying the bank out of the crisis. Simpson was the #2 at legacy Wachovia and got blown out in the early 2000s over the failure of an acquisition called either money tree or money store. Nice golden parachute. Backed by Carlyle and light year capital I was in doing the due diligence in 2009 and the area went from 1-2% below state unemployment to 15% never to really recover. There were so many 2nd and 3rd generation family owned businesses around the furniture industry that never de-levered and some even had term equipment loans on high tech wood cutting made in 07-08 mothballed and never used or would be as that industry is gonzo. Bank management, who was all going away anyway, kept insisting they’d all pay off and it’s like “how, their business cutting wood can never be more than 70-80% of what it was in place, not pro forma, when you lent on all that capex strictly off existing business cash flows?”.

[Brooklyn]

Trump prophet Jeremiah Johnson who predicted 2020 victory ends ministry


https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics ... d=msedgntp



Jeremiah Johnson, an evangelical Christian who predicted that former President Trump would win reelection in 2020, is ending his ministry.

Johnson said he did not make the decision lightly, writing in a Facebook post that he ended Jeremiah Johnson Ministries "after much prayer and the clear direction of the Lord," according to The Washington Post. The post has since been deleted.

The move comes after Johnson faced backlash from fellow evangelicals after he apologized for prophesying that Trump would win the 2020 election, according to the newspaper.

The move also comes in the middle of a YouTube series titled "I Was Wrong," during which he stated that the country must come together and not dwell on the 2020 election.

"I believe that it is a tremendous mistake to take the next four years to argue and debate and cause division and grow more prideful talking about how we think the election was taken from Donald Trump. I actually believe we need to take the next four years and humble ourselves," Johnson said in a video in the series.

"We need to recognize that God is up to something far greater in the prophetic, charismatic movement that I believe is beyond what many even recognize. We need to stop, we need to take a breather and we need to come back to a place where we can begin to dialogue about these issues rather than be so triggered," he added.

Following the announcement, Johnson has deleted all social media accounts associated with his ministry and has started a new website called The Altar Global.

"Our mission according to Revelation 22:17 is to help prepare the Bride of Christ for the return of our glorious Bridegroom King Jesus. We have been instructed to prepare an Altar for the Wedding day," the website says.

The organization is going to host a yearlong program for students so they can learn "the lifestyle of an end-time messenger and the return of the Lord."

Johnson in 2015 was one of the first evangelicals to take Trump's candidacy seriously and build a following online, according to an article from The New York Times, the Post reported.

Throughout his presidency and the 2020 election, Trump maintained a high level of support among evangelical Christians. In October, less than a month before the Nov. 3 election, Trump held the support of 78 percent of white Evangelicals, according to a poll from the Pew Research Center.



False prophet:

[youthathletics]

Update:

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/18/nyre ... d=tw-share

"...


Mr. Trump won an acquittal in his second impeachment trial last week, but remains the focus of at least two state criminal investigations. Besides the inquiry in Manhattan, prosecutors in Georgia are scrutinizing Mr. Trump’s effort to persuade local officials to undo the election results there. His departure from office has left him without the shield from indictment that the presidency provided.

...

Washington Post adds lengthy correction to report on Trump call with Georgia elections investigator

[njbill]

That’s not the call that gives T**** the most criminal exposure in Georgia. Seems that it’s just a matter of time before the other shoe drops on that one.

If you want to get a rise out of T**** down in Mar-a-Lago, just holler “Allen has flipped” when he is within earshot.

[Farfromgeneva]

That’s not the call that gives T**** the most criminal exposure in Georgia. Seems that it’s just a matter of time before the other shoe drops on that one.

If you want to get a rise out of T**** down in Mar-a-Lago, just holler “Allen has flipped” when he is within earshot.

Yep, I wouldn’t count on the N.Y. Times to have any idea what’s going on in Georgia. Funny how YA generally would immediately question the NYT but is now using it as evidence of something as he is actually correct that they have lost the plot more than a decade ago and the family get together in Succession actually is pretty on the Jose relative to the Sulzberger family.