Man, more Boeing news. It never ends...
https://www.axios.com/2u-guild-educatio ... b3dd2.html
The Nation's Financial Condition
-
- Posts: 23820
- Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2019 10:53 am
Re: The Nation's Financial Condition
Now I love those cowboys, I love their gold
Love my uncle, God rest his soul
Taught me good, Lord, taught me all I know
Taught me so well, that I grabbed that gold
I left his dead ass there by the side of the road, yeah
Love my uncle, God rest his soul
Taught me good, Lord, taught me all I know
Taught me so well, that I grabbed that gold
I left his dead ass there by the side of the road, yeah
-
- Posts: 5299
- Joined: Tue Mar 05, 2019 8:36 pm
Re: The Nation's Financial Condition
Those Pratt & Whitney razors sure require frequent blade changes, don’t they?Farfromgeneva wrote: ↑Tue Feb 23, 2021 4:36 pm Man, more Boeing news. It never ends...
https://www.axios.com/2u-guild-educatio ... b3dd2.html
"There is nothing more difficult and more dangerous to carry through than initiating changes. One makes enemies of those who prospered under the old order, and only lukewarm support from those who would prosper under the new."
-
- Posts: 23820
- Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2019 10:53 am
Re: The Nation's Financial Condition
Damn, wrong link. Try this one.PizzaSnake wrote: ↑Tue Feb 23, 2021 5:47 pmThose Pratt & Whitney razors sure require frequent blade changes, don’t they?Farfromgeneva wrote: ↑Tue Feb 23, 2021 4:36 pm Man, more Boeing news. It never ends...
https://www.axios.com/2u-guild-educatio ... b3dd2.html
https://www.theonion.com/boeing-scrambl ... 1840980952
Now I love those cowboys, I love their gold
Love my uncle, God rest his soul
Taught me good, Lord, taught me all I know
Taught me so well, that I grabbed that gold
I left his dead ass there by the side of the road, yeah
Love my uncle, God rest his soul
Taught me good, Lord, taught me all I know
Taught me so well, that I grabbed that gold
I left his dead ass there by the side of the road, yeah
Re: The Nation's Financial Condition
Fed Likely to Maintain Near Zero Interest Rates
On Tuesday during testimony before the Senate Banking Committee, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell suggested that the Fed would keep interest rates near zero for the foreseeable future (WSJ). Powell said, “The economy is a long way from our employment and inflation goals,” adding that the near-zero rates would continue until “substantial further progress has been made,” which he said, “is likely to take some time.”
https://www.wsj.com/articles/jerome-pow ... _lead_pos2
Tech Stocks Pare Losses as Fed Looks Dovish to Investors
https://www.wsj.com/articles/global-sto ... _lead_pos1
On Tuesday during testimony before the Senate Banking Committee, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell suggested that the Fed would keep interest rates near zero for the foreseeable future (WSJ). Powell said, “The economy is a long way from our employment and inflation goals,” adding that the near-zero rates would continue until “substantial further progress has been made,” which he said, “is likely to take some time.”
https://www.wsj.com/articles/jerome-pow ... _lead_pos2
Tech Stocks Pare Losses as Fed Looks Dovish to Investors
https://www.wsj.com/articles/global-sto ... _lead_pos1
by cradleandshoot » Fri Aug 13, 2021 8:57 am
Mr moderator, deactivate my account.
You have heck this forum up to making it nothing more than a joke. I hope you are happy.
This is cradle and shoot signing out.
Mr moderator, deactivate my account.
You have heck this forum up to making it nothing more than a joke. I hope you are happy.
This is cradle and shoot signing out.
-
- Posts: 23820
- Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2019 10:53 am
Re: The Nation's Financial Condition
2-10s spread is widest it’s been since beginning of Trump term (early 2017) as if the four years never happened.
Shade under 1.30%. This reflects the spread between the 2yr US T note and 10yr Treasury bond. Not insignificant to be at a 4yr wide. What it’s signaling I’m not sure however but it’s not equilibrium.
Shade under 1.30%. This reflects the spread between the 2yr US T note and 10yr Treasury bond. Not insignificant to be at a 4yr wide. What it’s signaling I’m not sure however but it’s not equilibrium.
Now I love those cowboys, I love their gold
Love my uncle, God rest his soul
Taught me good, Lord, taught me all I know
Taught me so well, that I grabbed that gold
I left his dead ass there by the side of the road, yeah
Love my uncle, God rest his soul
Taught me good, Lord, taught me all I know
Taught me so well, that I grabbed that gold
I left his dead ass there by the side of the road, yeah
-
- Posts: 5299
- Joined: Tue Mar 05, 2019 8:36 pm
Re: The Nation's Financial Condition
“What it’s signaling I’m not sure however but it’s not equilibrium.”Farfromgeneva wrote: ↑Tue Mar 02, 2021 1:50 pm 2-10s spread is widest it’s been since beginning of Trump term (early 2017) as if the four years never happened.
Shade under 1.30%. This reflects the spread between the 2yr US T note and 10yr Treasury bond. Not insignificant to be at a 4yr wide. What it’s signaling I’m not sure however but it’s not equilibrium.
You expect stasis? Or are you being facetious? We have a polity seemingly hopelessly divided by class , income, and religiousity most likely as a result of deliberate plutocratic propaganda for the last 40 odd years followed by a pandemic that has illuminated the decline in educational and wisdom. As a capper we have a slow uneasy sense of dread creeping in as the natural world begins to be exhibit more immoderation.
I’m sort of surprised things are as calm as they are. Could be like a slip fault. Pressure keeps building, and building, and building until it lets go with a “bang”!!
"There is nothing more difficult and more dangerous to carry through than initiating changes. One makes enemies of those who prospered under the old order, and only lukewarm support from those who would prosper under the new."
-
- Posts: 23820
- Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2019 10:53 am
Re: The Nation's Financial Condition
If you haven’t, I’d encourage you to check out a couple of books by a dude named Nassim Nicholas Taleb called The Black Swan and Antifragile. Suspect you’d enjoy them. I love the guy. Based on your comments, particularly Antifragile but Black Swan should kind for be read first IMO. Really Taleb wrote an earlier book called Fooled By Randomness which is also good and intended these three to be related so if your ambitious and care add that one but I think you can get by on these two which are plenty of reading should you choose to do so.
Black Swan
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Bla ... Improbable
Antifragile
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antifragile
Black Swan
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Bla ... Improbable
Antifragile
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antifragile
Now I love those cowboys, I love their gold
Love my uncle, God rest his soul
Taught me good, Lord, taught me all I know
Taught me so well, that I grabbed that gold
I left his dead ass there by the side of the road, yeah
Love my uncle, God rest his soul
Taught me good, Lord, taught me all I know
Taught me so well, that I grabbed that gold
I left his dead ass there by the side of the road, yeah
-
- Posts: 5299
- Joined: Tue Mar 05, 2019 8:36 pm
Re: The Nation's Financial Condition
So are you saying our current state is fragile or anti-fragile?Farfromgeneva wrote: ↑Tue Mar 02, 2021 10:39 pm If you haven’t, I’d encourage you to check out a couple of books by a dude named Nassim Nicholas Taleb called The Black Swan and Antifragile. Suspect you’d enjoy them. I love the guy. Based on your comments, particularly Antifragile but Black Swan should kind for be read first IMO. Really Taleb wrote an earlier book called Fooled By Randomness which is also good and intended these three to be related so if your ambitious and care add that one but I think you can get by on these two which are plenty of reading should you choose to do so.
Black Swan
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Bla ... Improbable
Antifragile
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antifragile
"Simply, antifragility is defined as a convex response to a stressor or source of harm (for some range of variation), leading to a positive sensitivity to increase in volatility (or variability, stress, dispersion of outcomes, or uncertainty, what is grouped under the designation "disorder cluster"). Likewise fragility is defined as a concave sensitivity to stressors, leading a negative sensitivity to increase in volatility. The relation between fragility, convexity and sensitivity to disorder is mathematical, obtained by theorem, not derived from empirical data mining or some historical narrative. It is a priori".
"There is nothing more difficult and more dangerous to carry through than initiating changes. One makes enemies of those who prospered under the old order, and only lukewarm support from those who would prosper under the new."
-
- Posts: 23820
- Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2019 10:53 am
Re: The Nation's Financial Condition
Fragile and getting worse. And the more we try to de risk society the greater the fractures or violence of the distress will be the outcome. I’m not binary on this but have long believed that the unintended consequences of many well intentioned actions by our representatives (on both sides) have and will continue to do more long term harm than good so it appeals to me to put some math,biology and philosophy to it the way he does.
For background, Taleb is Lebanese and has been a fianamce practitioner as a equity derivatives trader for credit Suisse for a bit in the 80s and is shaped a lot by black Monday in 87 and the failure of “great” economists and experts like the Black Scholes folks and the guy who created portfolio insurance (which triggered 87, not don cheadles firm) both of whom won Nobel prizes for their work respectively. I believe he’s also taught and spent a lot of time studying biology, physics and philosophy and brings that old school enlightened Lebanese/Persian mentality to it. He’s also arrogant and doesn’t hold anything back and made a lot of enemies but he’s almost always correct.
For background, Taleb is Lebanese and has been a fianamce practitioner as a equity derivatives trader for credit Suisse for a bit in the 80s and is shaped a lot by black Monday in 87 and the failure of “great” economists and experts like the Black Scholes folks and the guy who created portfolio insurance (which triggered 87, not don cheadles firm) both of whom won Nobel prizes for their work respectively. I believe he’s also taught and spent a lot of time studying biology, physics and philosophy and brings that old school enlightened Lebanese/Persian mentality to it. He’s also arrogant and doesn’t hold anything back and made a lot of enemies but he’s almost always correct.
Now I love those cowboys, I love their gold
Love my uncle, God rest his soul
Taught me good, Lord, taught me all I know
Taught me so well, that I grabbed that gold
I left his dead ass there by the side of the road, yeah
Love my uncle, God rest his soul
Taught me good, Lord, taught me all I know
Taught me so well, that I grabbed that gold
I left his dead ass there by the side of the road, yeah
-
- Posts: 5299
- Joined: Tue Mar 05, 2019 8:36 pm
Re: The Nation's Financial Condition
So here we are:
“Situation in which the manager of a business is not the true owner, so he follows a strategy that cosmetically seems to be sound, but in a hidden way benefits him and makes him antifragile at the expense (fragility) of the true owners or society. When he is right, he collects large benefits; when he is wrong, others pay the price. Typically this problem leads to fragility, as it is easy to hide risks. It also affects politicians and academics. A major source of fragility.”
“Situation in which the manager of a business is not the true owner, so he follows a strategy that cosmetically seems to be sound, but in a hidden way benefits him and makes him antifragile at the expense (fragility) of the true owners or society. When he is right, he collects large benefits; when he is wrong, others pay the price. Typically this problem leads to fragility, as it is easy to hide risks. It also affects politicians and academics. A major source of fragility.”
"There is nothing more difficult and more dangerous to carry through than initiating changes. One makes enemies of those who prospered under the old order, and only lukewarm support from those who would prosper under the new."
-
- Posts: 23820
- Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2019 10:53 am
Re: The Nation's Financial Condition
Yep, there’s risk transference all over the place unfortunately. Private and public sector. He’s a huge proponent of “skin in the game”. I may be out there but I tend to view any action as having benefits and costs and try to find who bears the risk. It’s never honestly presented by anyone at all so it’s not easy to know or see always.
But sure I’m not going to defend wall st bailouts broadly and agree there’s many agency problems with public companies. He won’t either.
But sure I’m not going to defend wall st bailouts broadly and agree there’s many agency problems with public companies. He won’t either.
Now I love those cowboys, I love their gold
Love my uncle, God rest his soul
Taught me good, Lord, taught me all I know
Taught me so well, that I grabbed that gold
I left his dead ass there by the side of the road, yeah
Love my uncle, God rest his soul
Taught me good, Lord, taught me all I know
Taught me so well, that I grabbed that gold
I left his dead ass there by the side of the road, yeah
-
- Posts: 5299
- Joined: Tue Mar 05, 2019 8:36 pm
Re: The Nation's Financial Condition
Sounds like my kind of guy.
“Although Boyd Tonkin of The Independent criticized Taleb’s style as "vulgar, silly, slapdash and infuriating", of the ideas in the book he remarked "time and again I returned to two questions about his core ideas: Is he right, and does it matter? My verdict? Yes, and yes."
I could care less about his style. Give me good ideas clearly expressed. I have little patience for bloviating fools.
“Although Boyd Tonkin of The Independent criticized Taleb’s style as "vulgar, silly, slapdash and infuriating", of the ideas in the book he remarked "time and again I returned to two questions about his core ideas: Is he right, and does it matter? My verdict? Yes, and yes."
I could care less about his style. Give me good ideas clearly expressed. I have little patience for bloviating fools.
"There is nothing more difficult and more dangerous to carry through than initiating changes. One makes enemies of those who prospered under the old order, and only lukewarm support from those who would prosper under the new."
-
- Posts: 23820
- Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2019 10:53 am
Re: The Nation's Financial Condition
But I would add that if you really read it you’ll see he’s not going to be any easier on other cohorts who pull all sorts of crap either. It’s not just focused on private business. Antifragile starts out with a mix of biology and philosophy and ultimately translates it to other “organisms” like business, colleges, government/politicians and even non profits.PizzaSnake wrote: ↑Tue Mar 02, 2021 11:20 pm So here we are:
“Situation in which the manager of a business is not the true owner, so he follows a strategy that cosmetically seems to be sound, but in a hidden way benefits him and makes him antifragile at the expense (fragility) of the true owners or society. When he is right, he collects large benefits; when he is wrong, others pay the price. Typically this problem leads to fragility, as it is easy to hide risks. It also affects politicians and academics. A major source of fragility.”
Now I love those cowboys, I love their gold
Love my uncle, God rest his soul
Taught me good, Lord, taught me all I know
Taught me so well, that I grabbed that gold
I left his dead ass there by the side of the road, yeah
Love my uncle, God rest his soul
Taught me good, Lord, taught me all I know
Taught me so well, that I grabbed that gold
I left his dead ass there by the side of the road, yeah
-
- Posts: 23820
- Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2019 10:53 am
Re: The Nation's Financial Condition
I don’t know who Boyd Tonkin is. This guy crushes anyone he thinks is wrong. Told a few noble prize winners in economics they should give back their medals (believe he was referring to Robert Merton and the portfolio insurance guy) and pissed off that community. refers to their work as “elegant mathematical models” that miss the size and severity of fat tail (2nd standard deviation events) and utilize variables which they have no ability to forecast or even identify correctly like volatility in option pricing.PizzaSnake wrote: ↑Tue Mar 02, 2021 11:29 pm Sounds like my kind of guy.
“Although Boyd Tonkin of The Independent criticized Taleb’s style as "vulgar, silly, slapdash and infuriating", of the ideas in the book he remarked "time and again I returned to two questions about his core ideas: Is he right, and does it matter? My verdict? Yes, and yes."
I could care less about his style. Give me good ideas clearly expressed. I have little patience for bloviating fools.
What’s interesting is I was thinking of him a number of years back when ACA was being pushed. Ezekiel Emmanuel was on CNBC totally irrational when (probably Keenan) questioned certain aspects with fair questions and Emmanuel kept yelling “where’s your model, where’s your model!” as if that meant anything to this discussion or that models have some scientific value hat they really don’t.
Economics got fubarred,IMO, by buying into the Friedman piece that argues that it’s a positive science (rather than a softer one).
Now I love those cowboys, I love their gold
Love my uncle, God rest his soul
Taught me good, Lord, taught me all I know
Taught me so well, that I grabbed that gold
I left his dead ass there by the side of the road, yeah
Love my uncle, God rest his soul
Taught me good, Lord, taught me all I know
Taught me so well, that I grabbed that gold
I left his dead ass there by the side of the road, yeah
Re: The Nation's Financial Condition
They already went bang. The Jury rendered the verdict: the top 20%ers win in America. And the bottom 80% will continue to fall behind.PizzaSnake wrote: ↑Tue Mar 02, 2021 10:34 pm You expect stasis? Or are you being facetious? We have a polity seemingly hopelessly divided by class , income, and religiousity most likely as a result of deliberate plutocratic propaganda for the last 40 odd years followed by a pandemic that has illuminated the decline in educational and wisdom. As a capper we have a slow uneasy sense of dread creeping in as the natural world begins to be exhibit more immoderation.
I’m sort of surprised things are as calm as they are. Could be like a slip fault. Pressure keeps building, and building, and building until it lets go with a “bang”!!
"The deliberate plutocratic propaganda has American conservative voters wearing tinfoil hat, and bickering about Mr. Potato head instead of demanding that their school districts teach kids how to code, and how to weld or build homes.
There is no bang. There's the quiet desperation after Reagan and then the Clinton Dems sold out the working class, all while FoxNation told voters Mr. Potato head was more important than infrastructure......including, as you point out very well: education.
-
- Posts: 5299
- Joined: Tue Mar 05, 2019 8:36 pm
Re: The Nation's Financial Condition
“Hanging on in quiet desperation is the English way”
Now it is the American way?
Just a thought. Did we really achieve independence from Great Britain? We copied their methods and made the same mistakes...
Now it is the American way?
Just a thought. Did we really achieve independence from Great Britain? We copied their methods and made the same mistakes...
"There is nothing more difficult and more dangerous to carry through than initiating changes. One makes enemies of those who prospered under the old order, and only lukewarm support from those who would prosper under the new."
-
- Posts: 5299
- Joined: Tue Mar 05, 2019 8:36 pm
Re: The Nation's Financial Condition
“The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.”. — Yeats
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.”. — Yeats
"There is nothing more difficult and more dangerous to carry through than initiating changes. One makes enemies of those who prospered under the old order, and only lukewarm support from those who would prosper under the new."
Re: The Nation's Financial Condition
If we need that extra push over the cliff, ya know what we do...eleven, exactly.
-
- Posts: 23820
- Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2019 10:53 am
Re: The Nation's Financial Condition
Everybody hates the British.PizzaSnake wrote: ↑Tue Mar 02, 2021 11:53 pm “Hanging on in quiet desperation is the English way”
Now it is the American way?
Just a thought. Did we really achieve independence from Great Britain? We copied their methods and made the same mistakes...
We didn’t run Harry Waters, Roger’s kid, out of Hobart my FR year. He was quiet and wasn’t equipped for the degeneracy in upstate NY.
Now I love those cowboys, I love their gold
Love my uncle, God rest his soul
Taught me good, Lord, taught me all I know
Taught me so well, that I grabbed that gold
I left his dead ass there by the side of the road, yeah
Love my uncle, God rest his soul
Taught me good, Lord, taught me all I know
Taught me so well, that I grabbed that gold
I left his dead ass there by the side of the road, yeah
-
- Posts: 23820
- Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2019 10:53 am
Re: The Nation's Financial Condition
Education is fake news.a fan wrote: ↑Tue Mar 02, 2021 11:47 pmThey already went bang. The Jury rendered the verdict: the top 20%ers win in America. And the bottom 80% will continue to fall behind.PizzaSnake wrote: ↑Tue Mar 02, 2021 10:34 pm You expect stasis? Or are you being facetious? We have a polity seemingly hopelessly divided by class , income, and religiousity most likely as a result of deliberate plutocratic propaganda for the last 40 odd years followed by a pandemic that has illuminated the decline in educational and wisdom. As a capper we have a slow uneasy sense of dread creeping in as the natural world begins to be exhibit more immoderation.
I’m sort of surprised things are as calm as they are. Could be like a slip fault. Pressure keeps building, and building, and building until it lets go with a “bang”!!
"The deliberate plutocratic propaganda has American conservative voters wearing tinfoil hat, and bickering about Mr. Potato head instead of demanding that their school districts teach kids how to code, and how to weld or build homes.
There is no bang. There's the quiet desperation after Reagan and then the Clinton Dems sold out the working class, all while FoxNation told voters Mr. Potato head was more important than infrastructure......including, as you point out very well: education.
We don’t need no education. Teachers, leave us kids alone!
Now I love those cowboys, I love their gold
Love my uncle, God rest his soul
Taught me good, Lord, taught me all I know
Taught me so well, that I grabbed that gold
I left his dead ass there by the side of the road, yeah
Love my uncle, God rest his soul
Taught me good, Lord, taught me all I know
Taught me so well, that I grabbed that gold
I left his dead ass there by the side of the road, yeah