Johns Hopkins 2021

[wgdsr]

i'm fine. but i'm also not sold!! for lacrosse... they need to provide at least 50%. because they exist. but they don't need to provide any more than that. and so they don't need to expand the tournament any more than they have for small conferences aligning. just provide a play-in. and we're already at a pretty high % of nc$$ teams vs total teams.

i believe this scenario works also. and works "better" as it says "at least" for aq's (which they have to do for lacrosse but not other sports) and doesn't have any minimum caveat for at larges. when it says "the remaining" i believe that means up to. although i would imagine the nc$$ would rather do all sports just like ours if there are enough aq's... get the best teams in there while providing avenue for aq's... basically @ 50%.

and as an example, i would say there is no chance they would have:
- 7 aq spots with 2 play ins (in a normal year)
- 9 at larges

[jhu08]

as an example, i would say there is no chance they would have:
- 7 aq spots with 2 play ins (in a normal year)
- 9 at larges

Yeah, you're right that that 7*AQ/9 at-large (*dual play-ins) split would not fly in D1 men's lacrosse. Basically in any sport with a sufficient number of qualifying conferences for AQs, the final tournament split will always be 50% AQs / 50% at-larges. This sentence from the bylaws would be the sticking point on the 7*/9 split: "the sport committee must award, if a sufficient number of applications for automatic qualification exist, at least 50 percent of the championship field to conferences that meet automatic-qualification criteria"

So in D1 men's lacrosse, with a tournament size of 16, there will always be 8 AQs awarded assuming that there are that many qualifying conferences.

The simplest way to look at it:
# qualifying AQ conferences > # available AQ spots: 50% AQs (with play-in games) / 50% at-larges
# qualifying AQ conferences = # available AQ spots: 50% AQs / 50% at-larges
# qualifying AQ conference < # available AQ sports: <50% AQs / >50% at-larges - essentially the unclaimed AQ spots are filled by (an) additional at-large(s)

[wgdsr]

and of your previous examples, hoops got a lot of pressure to expand from their perfect 64 a while back. because $$, of course.
anyway, for ease if you don't mind wiki (go to format):
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_Four
everybody's now considered in the tourney in those first 4 games. voila. 34 aq's = 1/2 the field of 68.

edit: whoops. you said 32 aq. so it doesn't matter that they now have "play ins" as they're not really play ins. they're part of a tourney of 68.

[jhu06]

Recruit rankings-offense should be able to really execute and keep us in every game.
1 epstein
4 grimes
5 connor
6 williams
7 zinn
14 mcdermott
20 smith
36 reinson
50 chauvette
59 murphy
63 angelus
71/martin-keough
75 shure
77 prouty
78 lyne
82 rodgers
91 bauer
92 mabett
93 raposo

Departed
19 rapine
43 murphy
47 gomez
56 stagnitta
57 lch
65 gainey
67 steel
80 giaclone

[HopFan16]

Not that it matters (it really doesn't), but you left out a few. Kirson, Fernandez, and Marcille were all in IL's top 100 recruits. I could have sworn Baskin was too but I guess not.

Milliman's comments on the Glenn Clark show linked above were semi-interesting. He said he's been impressed by Mabbett's transition to SSDM though unclear if that means he'll actually see the field in that capacity. Also mentioned Lyne, Narewski, DeSimone, Angelus, and Baskin as guys who have "stepped up" in practice. He stops short of naming Kirson the starter but said he's been doing well and has put himself in a good position but publicly they are still calling it a competition.

[jhu06]

I had to finish a call. I don't remember why schnellenberger departed and I don't have enough time to see how that list compares to what acc/denver/maryland are lining up, but that's a ton of high recruits on offense for a school that had one ff in a decade and that according to haters is done.

[Typical Lax Dad]

I had to finish a call. I don't remember why schnellenberger departed and I don't have enough time to see how that list compares to what acc/denver/maryland are lining up, but that's a ton of high recruits on offense for a school that had one ff in a decade and that according to haters is done.

The list is almost meaningless. Where is Jack Hawley? One of my favorite players on that team.

[Farfromgeneva]

-I'm not a math nerd, but I'm sure lacrossereference.com or someone has a tournament probability analysis of our chances if we win-I'm guessing upper 50s or lose-mid to low 30s based upon expected success of terps/lions and rutgers/michigan.

Again, I think most are wrongly considering this to be a normal season in this regard.

To me, the Big Ten isn't getting more than two - no matter how good our teams are - if selection is normal this season. Even with a win, I wouldn't put us anywhere near 50-60% of making the NCAA tournament.

Focus on winning games/the Big Ten title. If we do well in those goals, the rest will take care of itself.

--

My two cents.

ACC is getting four minimum. Maybe (Probably?) all five.

After what I feel like are 4 ACC locks, that leaves, essentially, four bids to be split, likely among:
ACC #5
Big Ten runner-up/2nd best team
Big East runner-up/2nd best team
Patriot League runner-up/2nd best team
Colonial runner-up/2nd best team

Any team outside of these 5 conferences would need something exceptional for an at-large bid in my opinion.

while the above could be true, there are some possibilities for curveballs.
we've spoken about the potential issues of b1g's schedule.
going in, that means as a conference, they'd have .500 opp rec and .500 opp opp record. which is... average.

this would be a problem from their default (actual record and opp record > .500) and an expectation that they would be 1, 2 or 3 any given year.

however - some conferences have tightened up # of ooc games. with the acc not really doing that and having stronger than even usual teams (and no ivies or b1g to play), the possibility exists that the acc runs roughshod over other conferences. that might put them say, 30+ games over .500. with only 7 other conferences that have any ooc play. and fewer games at that.

so... it's at least possible that the b1g might not fall as the 5th rated conference, but even something as high as say 3rd. 30+ games is a lot. many other conferences can be spread over that .500 mark, straddling it.
it could be: acc +30, be +5, then b1g, then 6 other conferences under .500.

early, but i'd guess the big east gets at least one. beyond that, who knows? the southern i might add to your list. then there's when clear leaders of a conference don't get the auto bid. that could be the case in the b1g as well -- say there's 2 clear leaders and then an upset in the tourney auto bid.

throw in game cancellations and the b1g's sterling protocols (tough to know if that will hurt or help), as well as the committee's willingness to do whatever they please over the years, and there's a whole lot of who knows?

i can easily see them screwing the mid-majors and invoking covid cover.

Seems early but that CAA #2 isn’t likely given Hof loss to St Johns, Del handicapped but losing to MSM and UMass struggling to stay on schedule. Towson doesn’t look like an At large team. Leaves FFD and Drexel to make soemthing happen.

Agree Big East feels like two between Denver/GTown/Nova but while small, the Prov loss to Bryant hurts on the margin for the second bid. Need Marquette to be above average this year.

Would’ve agreed on SoCon having a shot for a second but while being very capable and potentially worthy, the HPU & Rich close losses to Loyola and UNC,perhaps along with the Jax loss to UNC, shrinks the noose a lot which migt eh a shame to not see Nolting in a playoff game.

Best early guess of mine on who Hop fans should focus on, if they’re going to pay attention, outside of conference are Army, Navy, Lehigh, Notre Dame, GTown, Nova, SBU/Albany

[HopFan16]

At the risk of jinxing it I think Army, Loyola, and maybe Lehigh are the only PL teams to worry about. Navy's non-con schedule isn't great especially if the Virginia game on May 1 ends up getting bumped for a make-up game.

I just can't see these America East teams getting in on the strength of RPI. Stony Brook has to play NJIT twice. That alone is going to drag down their numbers. Albany's slate isn't a whole lot better.

If High Point can run the table against its non-ACC competition, these games against UNC/UVA/Duke could come in handy for them later on, even if they lose them all. This is all assuming the committee uses RPI in the same way they've been doing so.

Notre Dame's non-con slate against Bobby Mo, Bellarmine, Marquette, and Cleveland State is not going to do them any favors. It will help them finish above .500 but it's probably gonna sap their RPI, at least relative to many of their conference rivals with tougher OOC slates.

In short I think it's going to be really difficult to predict what RPIs are with such out-of-balance OOC schedules within conferences. Some conferences playing none, others only a few, others playing a ton. It's gonna be a mess. All I am really worried about this year is the Big Ten. If the Jays do a decent job in the conference and that's not enough for an NCAA bid this time around then so be it. The math alone is enough to drive someone mad and we've got enough to worry about as it is.

[nyjay]

Preseason coaches poll has the Jays 5th, ahead of only Michigan. Based on last year and recent trajectory, it's not like they deserve a tremendous amount of respect, but still, 5th. Maybe I'm a pollyanna, but I see the team being better than that. UMd is clearly the class of the league, and PSU second. But I don't see a whole lot of daylight between RU, OSU and the Jays. I continue to think the lax media as a whole is substantially overrating OSU, but maybe that's just me. I can't see the Jays being much worse than 4-6, but what do I know.

Epstein, DeSimone and Cole made the "watchlist".

[jhu08]

All I am really worried about this year is the Big Ten. If the Jays do a decent job in the conference and that's not enough for an NCAA bid this time around then so be it. The math alone is enough to drive someone mad and we've got enough to worry about as it is.

I agree, and I'm a math-inclined person. For the sake of this post, let's assume that we get all 11 games that we are "guaranteed" in.

If we win say 7 of those, I think we are at least in the discussion for an at-large bid. If we win 8 or 9, we're probably in.

If we do our job, it takes care of itself. We need to try to win games (and preferably the AQ), and if we do our best and come up short, oh well.

Don't sweat the math. We need to focus on getting better and - hopefully - winning some games.

[nyjay]

Agreed. This year is the first step towards reestablishing the program. I expect inconsistency and perhaps some games where we score 15 and still lose. I suspect they'll lose a game they shouldn't but I also expect to beat (or at least come close to beating) UMd and PSU once this year. Happy to be in the B1G though - it would be a bloodbath in the ACC. Going forward after this year, I expect the Jays to get better and the ACC schools to come back to the pack as all of there 5th year AA's roll off the rosters and the talent level reverts somewhat to normal. Longer term, I think the team ends up consistently in the 8-15 range, with the occasional year in the top 5.

I'm excited to see a team that moves the ball, plays fast, has fun and doesn't grip to the stick too hard for fear of getting reamed out by the coach.

[Matnum PI]

to each their own but... why so much disrespect for JHU?

[nyjay]

no big deal. let everyone enjoy kicking the jays while we're down. we'll be back up soon enough.

[Matnum PI]

my point is that i don't think the jays are down. somehow SU won the National C'ship last season and JHU became a fledgling program... which simply aren't true. this season needs to start...!

[HopFan16]

I mean, coming off of last season, they were always going to be either 4th or 5th in the conference. It's take your pick with Rutgers. Most seem to be preferring Rutgers but that's fine. I don't really see why—Rutgers wasn't good last year either, and has historically been worse than the Jays—but it is what it is. We've got AT LEAST two games to settle it. Recently we've gotten used to having high expectations and not meeting them... So maybe this is a bit of over-correcting. In any case, it'll be interesting to see how the Jays respond to more of an underdog role. Maybe with expectations lower than normal they'll perform better. Or maybe the prognosticators will have it right. I'm just really freaking excited to see them play.

[nyjay]

my point is that i don't think the jays are down. somehow SU won the National C'ship last season and JHU became a fledgling program... which simply aren't true. this season needs to start...!

Let them all believe whatever they want. Gonna be funny when SU finishes 4th in their conference. A new day dawns at Homewood on Saturday.

[FannOLax]

Milliman will turn the program around from that lousy shortened 2020 campaign. I wouldn't bet against this team, especially come the conference tourney.

[Matnum PI]

Talent and coaches to shape and steer the talent. JHU has both. And, still, so much hate. I don't get it...

[jhu08]

Talent and coaches to shape and steer the talent. JHU has both. And, still, so much hate. I don't get it...

Most people have a short memory. You’re only as good as your last few games.