You have to look at three things. How much vaccine are you getting? What is your administration capability? And how many people are in the group you are considering making eligible?wgdsr wrote: ↑Fri Jan 29, 2021 5:54 pmthe biggest eff up on vaccines imo has been the initial recommendations for healthcare workers. then they told states to open it up as that was a disaster, but the die was cast. what should've been emphasized, which hasn't been since this whole thing started a year ago, was the most vulnerable.njbill wrote: ↑Fri Jan 29, 2021 2:37 pm Maybe down the road. I don’t agree with the approach that is generally being used to divide up the “healthy” population into +65s and 16-64s.
I think that has been a major reason why things are so screwed up in New Jersey right now. They should have first opened it up to, say, 80s, then 75s, then 70s, then 65s.
Similarly, when they go below the 65s, they should open it up, say, to 60s, then 55s, then 50s. Maybe after the 16 to 50s.
we could've had a delivery for almost every person above 65 at the states right now, and wouldn't need to bifurcate above 65. and every one of them done by end feb. the only group i would except maybe is school and staff to get kids back in school by march. i believe they're under 10 million people. phase them in after the 1st couple weeks and nursing homes were done, elderly started.
now, states have parallel cohorts everywhere. don't remember if i posted this before, i think i did:
https://www.flgov.com/2021/01/20/florid ... -approach/
the numbers aren't much different now. florida way in the lead. west virginia gov says everyone over 65 will have been vaccinated (maybe 1st shot?) by feb 14. most all other states giving shots to "essential workers" of all flavors.
If the number of people in the about-to-be-made-eligible group is larger by many many multiples than either of the first two categories, your program will be a disaster if appointments are made simply on a first come first served basis.
New Jersey added 65s on or around January 10 or 12. At that point, I think only one (maybe two) of their six mega centers were open and operating. But the rest opened within a matter of days.
All of us old farts have lots of time on our hands plus we are highly motivated to want to get a shot so we overwhelmed the system as soon as they opened it up to everyone over age 65.
If we were getting, say, 10 times the amount of doses and had much broader distribution and administration capabilities, then you can open up eligibility to an extremely large group.
Obviously, from a selfish perspective, I am glad New Jersey has made the 65s eligible, but I have some degree of guilt looking around at similarly situated friends and family members who simply can’t get an appointment.
Unless you are referring to the fact that reportedly a sizable number of healthcare workers aren’t taking the vaccine even though eligible, I’m not sure what you mean by eff’d up. And I really wouldn’t call that an eff up by the government, but rather knuckleheaded decisions by those who won’t take the vaccine. I suppose it is debatable as to whether that was predictable, but I think the powers that be had to err on the side of having enough vaccine and enough administration capabilities to take care of virtually all healthcare workers if they decided to get vaccinated.
I actually don’t have a problem with healthcare workers, and other essential personnel, going first. They are out there dealing with patients every day and thus get exposed to one degree or another. It is important that we keep them up and running.
I am OK with elderly teachers, say, over age 50, going next. Not sure a 25-year-old teacher should be given priority over an 80 year old person.
If NJ had opened things up to over 65s before healthcare workers, I think we would have been in an unholy mess of a situation because back in December the state’s administration capabilities were pretty limited. Again, all of us old farts would have jammed the system from day one. The first 10% who got online would get appointments, and then the rest would be scrambling, having to check multiple websites every day to try to find openings.