All things CoronaVirus

[wgdsr]

Murphy said today on CNN that New Jersey is currently getting a little over 100,000 doses per week. Says they could use two or three times that. Currently, New Jersey has six mega vaccination sites plus over 200 smaller sites.

As I have been saying, supply is the main problem.

did anyone ask him a follow up on how that squares with nj having received 990k already and having administered 525k?

[njbill]

No, that question wasn’t asked. Maybe you should get hired by CNN so you can do the interviews.

I’ve already responded to your arguments on this at great length a couple of days ago. You don’t accept my arguments. That’s fine. I don’t accept your position that this “gap” demonstrates that administration, not supply, is the issue. By the way, that gap is only about a two to three week supply (at most) based on current administration capabilities. Seems like a reasonable cushion to me.

If New Jersey is getting 100,000+ doses a week, that comes to about 14,000+ a day. New Jersey is administering multiples of that currently so unless supply increases, that gap is going to get eaten into pretty quickly.

Now I understand the national stockpile is limited. I have no reason to think that New Jersey, or any other state, isn’t currently getting their pro rata share of available product. My issue, as I have outlined at great length, is that the previous administration failed to ensure that adequate supply was manufactured. Everyone and their grandmother saw this coming.

Murphy is the governor. He knows a lot more about these issues than you or I do. He’s a Democrat. We now have a Democrat president. So his complaints about lack of supply can no longer be viewed as political.

What state do you live in? Do you have similar complaints about the pace of administration there?

[wgdsr]

No, that question wasn’t asked. Maybe you should get hired by CNN so you can do the interviews.

I’ve already responded to your arguments on this at great length a couple of days ago. You don’t accept my arguments. That’s fine. I don’t accept your position that this “gap” demonstrates that administration, not supply, is the issue. By the way, that gap is only about a two to three week supply (at most) based on current administration capabilities. Seems like a reasonable cushion to me.
to be clear.. i am fully aware a "demand" of 150-200 million people is out there. i suspect you know that i'm aware. and that we didn't have 150-200 million doses available on day 1. you believe that was doable with every vaccine candidate we selected, and god bless you. i don't know that, so we'll just be at odds there.
If New Jersey is getting 100,000+ doses a week, that comes to about 14,000+ a day. New Jersey is administering multiples of that currently so unless supply increases, that gap is going to get eaten into pretty quickly.
they have been getting much more than that, weekly, on average. that's a fact borne by the numbers. and that's why they have an additional 450k doses in warehouses somewhere.
Now I understand the national stockpile is limited. I have no reason to think that New Jersey, or any other state, isn’t currently getting their pro rata share of available product. My issue, as I have outlined at great length, is that the previous administration failed to ensure that adequate supply was manufactured. Everyone and their grandmother saw this coming.
as far as pro rata... if it were me, i would be giving every state pro rata every week with a lead time as many weeks as possible from manufacturers. so they can plan. unfortunately, that's been ever changing. first it was nebulous on who was getting hit and #s depending on cohorts, and then the cohorts changed. then it was who is getting % of shots in arms. then they changed to an idea of not holding shots in reserve, and governors assumed they'd be getting twice as much. it's a s*it show.
i've advocated for simplicity. pro rata for states. large center delivery and cohorts vs. small. satellite around that on delivery for rural.
Murphy is the governor. He knows a lot more about these issues than you or I do. He’s a Democrat. We now have a Democrat president. So his complaints about lack of supply can no longer be viewed as political.
i don't care about this. i've been watching the jersey numbers (for you) and they don't square. in any event, murphy may have a plan and that's fine. going forward, they are likely to get 1/37th of the nationwide supply which is now 2 million per day. so at some point, you should want jersey to be administering 54k per day. a buffer is one thing. at some point, you should administer what you have coming in. that looks like it might flatten. i suspect they are wary of varying supply and having 2nd shots ready. it's probably complicated.
What state do you live in? Do you have similar complaints about the pace of administration there?

yes. pace of admin has been curiously bad.

the bigger problem i have with my state is 2 days ago we had 16% of people over 65 had gotten shots that actually were administered. florida was well over 60%. 16% is ridiculous. oh, well. massachusetts was under 10.

[MDlaxfan76]

I don't follow entirely...is there somewhere that says 60% of those over 65 have been vaccinated in Florida...that certainly isn't the case where we are in Florida. Not even those over 80...

Or did I totally misunderstand...likely!

[wgdsr]

I don't follow entirely...is there somewhere that says 60% of those over 65 have been vaccinated in Florida...that certainly isn't the case where we are in Florida. Not even those over 80...

Or did I totally misunderstand...likely!

60+% of shots admin were to over 65's so far.

stay in florida for now. maryland was under 20%.

[MDlaxfan76]

I don't follow entirely...is there somewhere that says 60% of those over 65 have been vaccinated in Florida...that certainly isn't the case where we are in Florida. Not even those over 80...

Or did I totally misunderstand...likely!

60+% of shots admin were to over 65's so far.

stay in florida for now. maryland was under 20%.

More were the healthcare and essential workers in the first wave?

It's a real cluster--- where we are right now, ridiculous.
It certainly doesn't need to be, but ahh well.

[wgdsr]

I don't follow entirely...is there somewhere that says 60% of those over 65 have been vaccinated in Florida...that certainly isn't the case where we are in Florida. Not even those over 80...

Or did I totally misunderstand...likely!

60+% of shots admin were to over 65's so far.

stay in florida for now. maryland was under 20%.

More were the healthcare and essential workers in the first wave?

It's a real cluster--- where we are right now, ridiculous.
It certainly doesn't need to be, but ahh well.

no essential workers outside of healthcare were in first wave.

and states have gotten twice, 3 x, 5x and higher the number of doses in the last 2 weeks than they administered to healthcare workers in the first 2 or 3 weeks.

states are making their choices .

[njbill]

What is your obsession with NJ? You don't live here, right?

Why won't you identify the state you live in? Are you in the witness protection program? Fair is fair. Let me take some potshots at your state.

Not sure why you threw out a "demand" figure of 150-200 million. The actual number of +65s, etc. is way, way below that. No state currently is opening up vaccinations to everyone under age 65. The current demand is no more than tens of millions of people (double, of course, for shots).

All I know is that the prior administration did not do everything it could to manufacture as much supply as humanly possible starting last summer. They didn't invoke the DPA, they didn't strike enough mega-deals, they didn't crack the whip on manufacturers to go 24/7, expand/add facilities six to eight months ago. That is really beyond dispute at this point as I and others have demonstrated on this forum. If you prefer, wait to see what the Covid Commission report says. I know where I'll put my money.

Lack of supply is a nation-wide problem. Look at yesterday's WaPo article. Maybe some states aren't yet fully up to speed in administering vaccinations, but it seems many are. Look at reports out of NY.

I'm focusing on NJ because I live here and hope to get vaccinated here. Plus I have lots of friends and family here whom I'd like to see get vaccinated ASAP.

I don't know where you get your numbers on daily doses delivered (you attached a link Friday (I think) that shows total delivered but I don't see anything that breaks that down by day). But what you say seems to be contradicted by the governor. Today, in a national TV interview he said 100,000+ (didn't quantify the "plus") per week (let's say 165,000 based on six weeks (NJ first doses were on Dec. 15) and 989,000 total per your site). Murphy specifically said we could use (by that I'm sure he means administer) two to three times that.

Even if NJ got 200,000 doses per week, that is still fewer than NJ is currently putting into arms (about 250,000). BTW, are you aware that the six mega sites have only been open a little more than one week? Administration capability is dramatically higher now than it was even two weeks ago.

Also, you understand that at the pace of administration last week (about 250,000) 450,000 doses is less than a two week supply? Not sure why you keep ignoring the point that you don't want to zero out everyday, and that you need to have a bit of supply on hand. You must have never worked in retail.

Murphy's complaints today aren't new. He has been complaining about lack of supply in NJ since last month.

https://patch.com/new-jersey/lacey/gov- ... -apologize

I am by no means a Murphy apologist in terms of his handling of Covid. He's done some good things, but a lot of bad things as well. But in terms of administering vaccines, so far I think he's done a decent job with the hand he has been dealt. Believe me, if I thought he was dropping the ball, I would be the first (even before you) to criticize him because it affects me personally. But he isn't.

If by "cohorts" you mean those eligible to be vaccinated, I would agree that the states have been too aggressive in expanding groupings. And that is counter to my own interest because I am being benefited by NJ's expanding to 65s. But NJ doesn't have sufficient supply to administer to the 65s right now. That's obvious as demonstrated by the chaotic appointment situation. They should have started, say, with 80s, then 75s, then 70s before going to 65s. This is probably the biggest current problem nationwide: not enough supply to meet +65 demand. But the lack of supply is the fault of T****.

Mega sites are good, but the best delivery system is local drug stores. Local doctors' offices would be great, too, but that seems a bridge too far at this point. But drug stores have a built in delivery system of their own. Get chunks of doses to, say, CVS, then let CVS distribute to each of their stores. A complication here is that that would only work for Moderna since local stores don't have the super freezers. In NJ we are not getting enough supply to deliver to drug stores. That's a simple fact which is a major road block.

Second shot appointments are a major, major concern in NJ. Article in one of the local papers today that someone who got his first shot at one of the mega sites was simply told to go out and register for the second one on his own. Yeah, right. Try and get an appointment, even within the newly expanded window. I am going to go over to my mega site this week and try to find out the specifics of getting appointments for second shots. (I know, sounds greedy, when many haven't gotten their first appointment.) Maybe they will blow me off, but I'm gonna try.

[wgdsr]

What is your obsession with NJ? You don't live here, right?

Why won't you identify the state you live in? Are you in the witness protection program? Fair is fair. Let me take some potshots at your state.
be my guest.


Not sure why you threw out a "demand" figure of 150-200 million. The actual number of +65s, etc. is way, way below that. No state currently is opening up vaccinations to everyone under age 65. The current demand is no more than tens of millions of people (double, of course, for shots).
not one state has kept the applications to over 65. it's higher than the daily supply, right? i am assuming you are with me on the point intended. let me know if you're not, i'll use different numbers?
All I know is that the prior administration did not do everything it could to manufacture as much supply as humanly possible starting last summer. They didn't invoke the DPA, they didn't strike enough mega-deals, they didn't crack the whip on manufacturers to go 24/7, expand/add facilities six to eight months ago. That is really beyond dispute at this point as I and others have demonstrated on this forum. If you prefer, wait to see what the Covid Commission report says. I know where I'll put my money.

Lack of supply is a nation-wide problem. Look at yesterday's WaPo article. Maybe some states aren't yet fully up to speed in administering vaccinations, but it seems many are. Look at reports out of NY.

I'm focusing on NJ because I live here and hope to get vaccinated here. Plus I have lots of friends and family here whom I'd like to see get vaccinated ASAP.

I don't know where you get your numbers on daily doses delivered (you attached a link Friday (I think) that shows total delivered but I don't see anything that breaks that down by day). But what you say seems to be contradicted by the governor. Today, in a national TV interview he said 100,000+ (didn't quantify the "plus") per week (let's say 165,000 based on six weeks (NJ first doses were on Dec. 15) and 989,000 total per your site). Murphy specifically said we could use (by that I'm sure he means administer) two to three times that.
go to the new jersey dept of health. they have at least weekly updates.
Even if NJ got 200,000 doses per week, that is still fewer than NJ is currently putting into arms (about 250,000). BTW, are you aware that the six mega sites have only been open a little more than one week? Administration capability is dramatically higher now than it was even two weeks ago.

Also, you understand that at the pace of administration last week (about 250,000) 450,000 doses is less than a two week supply? Not sure why you keep ignoring the point that you don't want to zero out everyday, and that you need to have a bit of supply on hand. You must have never worked in retail.

Murphy's complaints today aren't new. He has been complaining about lack of supply in NJ since last month.

https://patch.com/new-jersey/lacey/gov- ... -apologize

I am by no means a Murphy apologist in terms of his handling of Covid. He's done some good things, but a lot of bad things as well. But in terms of administering vaccines, so far I think he's done a decent job with the hand he has been dealt. Believe me, if I thought he was dropping the ball, I would be the first (even before you) to criticize him because it affects me personally. But he isn't.

If by "cohorts" you mean those eligible to be vaccinated, I would agree that the states have been too aggressive in expanding groupings. And that is counter to my own interest because I am being benefited by NJ's expanding to 65s. But NJ doesn't have sufficient supply to administer to the 65s right now. That's obvious as demonstrated by the chaotic appointment situation. They should have started, say, with 80s, then 75s, then 70s before going to 65s. This is probably the biggest current problem nationwide: not enough supply to meet +65 demand. But the lack of supply is the fault of T****.

Mega sites are good, but the best delivery system is local drug stores. Local doctors' offices would be great, too, but that seems a bridge too far at this point. But drug stores have a built in delivery system of their own. Get chunks of doses to, say, CVS, then let CVS distribute to each of their stores. A complication here is that that would only work for Moderna since local stores don't have the super freezers. In NJ we are not getting enough supply to deliver to drug stores. That's a simple fact which is a major road block.

Second shot appointments are a major, major concern in NJ. Article in one of the local papers today that someone who got his first shot at one of the mega sites was simply told to go out and register for the second one on his own. Yeah, right. Try and get an appointment, even within the newly expanded window. I am going to go over to my mega site this week and try to find out the specifics of getting appointments for second shots. (I know, sounds greedy, when many haven't gotten their first appointment.) Maybe they will blow me off, but I'm gonna try.

i gave you a link and you don't want to track it. so i may just be done discussing numbers with you about new jersey.

i have said a buffer is fine and of course is expected. weren't you one of the guys that said we shouldn't be saving shots for second doses? cdc just gave you a 42.day window, too.

here ya go.... there are millions of people in new jersey that want shots, and millions won't be made available tomorrow. so it's a supply problem.


good luck to new jersey!

[MDlaxfan76]

I don't follow entirely...is there somewhere that says 60% of those over 65 have been vaccinated in Florida...that certainly isn't the case where we are in Florida. Not even those over 80...

Or did I totally misunderstand...likely!

60+% of shots admin were to over 65's so far.

stay in florida for now. maryland was under 20%.

More were the healthcare and essential workers in the first wave?

It's a real cluster--- where we are right now, ridiculous.
It certainly doesn't need to be, but ahh well.

no essential workers outside of healthcare were in first wave.

and states have gotten twice, 3 x, 5x and higher the number of doses in the last 2 weeks than they administered to healthcare workers in the first 2 or 3 weeks.

states are making their choices .

So, who is getting vaccinated if not the older folks?

[wgdsr]

I don't follow entirely...is there somewhere that says 60% of those over 65 have been vaccinated in Florida...that certainly isn't the case where we are in Florida. Not even those over 80...

Or did I totally misunderstand...likely!

60+% of shots admin were to over 65's so far.

stay in florida for now. maryland was under 20%.

More were the healthcare and essential workers in the first wave?

It's a real cluster--- where we are right now, ridiculous.
It certainly doesn't need to be, but ahh well.

no essential workers outside of healthcare were in first wave.

and states have gotten twice, 3 x, 5x and higher the number of doses in the last 2 weeks than they administered to healthcare workers in the first 2 or 3 weeks.

states are making their choices .

So, who is getting vaccinated if not the older folks?

everyone else.

[MDlaxfan76]

I don't follow entirely...is there somewhere that says 60% of those over 65 have been vaccinated in Florida...that certainly isn't the case where we are in Florida. Not even those over 80...

Or did I totally misunderstand...likely!

60+% of shots admin were to over 65's so far.

stay in florida for now. maryland was under 20%.

More were the healthcare and essential workers in the first wave?

It's a real cluster--- where we are right now, ridiculous.
It certainly doesn't need to be, but ahh well.

no essential workers outside of healthcare were in first wave.

and states have gotten twice, 3 x, 5x and higher the number of doses in the last 2 weeks than they administered to healthcare workers in the first 2 or 3 weeks.

states are making their choices .

So, who is getting vaccinated if not the older folks?

everyone else.

That certainly sounds strange...it's wide open for all?

At 63, I'd have the same chance as my 84 year old mom?...My 27 year old would have the same chance as me?

hmmm,https://states.aarp.org/maryland/covid- ... stribution

https://www.wbaltv.com/article/covid-19 ... 5/35121197#

[wgdsr]

I don't follow entirely...is there somewhere that says 60% of those over 65 have been vaccinated in Florida...that certainly isn't the case where we are in Florida. Not even those over 80...

Or did I totally misunderstand...likely!

60+% of shots admin were to over 65's so far.

stay in florida for now. maryland was under 20%.

More were the healthcare and essential workers in the first wave?

It's a real cluster--- where we are right now, ridiculous.
It certainly doesn't need to be, but ahh well.

no essential workers outside of healthcare were in first wave.

and states have gotten twice, 3 x, 5x and higher the number of doses in the last 2 weeks than they administered to healthcare workers in the first 2 or 3 weeks.

states are making their choices .

So, who is getting vaccinated if not the older folks?

everyone else.

That certainly sounds strange...it's wide open for all?

At 63, I'd have the same chance as my 84 year old mom?...My 27 year old would have the same chance as me?

mdlax... it's an exaggeration for effect. look up whatever state you're interested in. then each state/county calls up who they call up. the fla and md numbers were provided by cnn.

we're both waiting for 80 year something call ups. i suspect you get the call before we do.

[MDlaxfan76]

I don't follow entirely...is there somewhere that says 60% of those over 65 have been vaccinated in Florida...that certainly isn't the case where we are in Florida. Not even those over 80...

Or did I totally misunderstand...likely!

60+% of shots admin were to over 65's so far.

stay in florida for now. maryland was under 20%.

More were the healthcare and essential workers in the first wave?

It's a real cluster--- where we are right now, ridiculous.
It certainly doesn't need to be, but ahh well.

no essential workers outside of healthcare were in first wave.

and states have gotten twice, 3 x, 5x and higher the number of doses in the last 2 weeks than they administered to healthcare workers in the first 2 or 3 weeks.

states are making their choices .

So, who is getting vaccinated if not the older folks?

everyone else.

That certainly sounds strange...it's wide open for all?

At 63, I'd have the same chance as my 84 year old mom?...My 27 year old would have the same chance as me?

mdlax... it's an exaggeration for effect. look up whatever state you're interested in. then each state/county calls up who they call up. the fla and md numbers were provided by cnn.

we're both waiting for 80 year something call ups. i suspect you get the call before we do.

ok, sounds like both states are struggling...it's definitely a complete mess down here.
I assume you saw the links re Md.

Here in Florida it's 65+ but try getting an appointment anywhere, much less a "call back"...can't even put your name on a list to get a call back...

[wgdsr]

I don't follow entirely...is there somewhere that says 60% of those over 65 have been vaccinated in Florida...that certainly isn't the case where we are in Florida. Not even those over 80...

Or did I totally misunderstand...likely!

60+% of shots admin were to over 65's so far.

stay in florida for now. maryland was under 20%.

More were the healthcare and essential workers in the first wave?

It's a real cluster--- where we are right now, ridiculous.
It certainly doesn't need to be, but ahh well.

no essential workers outside of healthcare were in first wave.

and states have gotten twice, 3 x, 5x and higher the number of doses in the last 2 weeks than they administered to healthcare workers in the first 2 or 3 weeks.

states are making their choices .

So, who is getting vaccinated if not the older folks?

everyone else.

That certainly sounds strange...it's wide open for all?

At 63, I'd have the same chance as my 84 year old mom?...My 27 year old would have the same chance as me?

mdlax... it's an exaggeration for effect. look up whatever state you're interested in. then each state/county calls up who they call up. the fla and md numbers were provided by cnn.

we're both waiting for 80 year something call ups. i suspect you get the call before we do.

ok, sounds like both states are struggling...it's definitely a complete mess down here.
I assume you saw the links re Md.

Here in Florida it's 65+ but try getting an appointment anywhere, much less a "call back"...can't even put your name on a list to get a call back...

it depends on your perspective. at least florida is getting it to seniors. the pace is the pace. and you're in florida in wintertime. enjoy it!

[MDlaxfan76]

I don't follow entirely...is there somewhere that says 60% of those over 65 have been vaccinated in Florida...that certainly isn't the case where we are in Florida. Not even those over 80...

Or did I totally misunderstand...likely!

60+% of shots admin were to over 65's so far.

stay in florida for now. maryland was under 20%.

More were the healthcare and essential workers in the first wave?

It's a real cluster--- where we are right now, ridiculous.
It certainly doesn't need to be, but ahh well.

no essential workers outside of healthcare were in first wave.

and states have gotten twice, 3 x, 5x and higher the number of doses in the last 2 weeks than they administered to healthcare workers in the first 2 or 3 weeks.

states are making their choices .

So, who is getting vaccinated if not the older folks?

everyone else.

That certainly sounds strange...it's wide open for all?

At 63, I'd have the same chance as my 84 year old mom?...My 27 year old would have the same chance as me?

mdlax... it's an exaggeration for effect. look up whatever state you're interested in. then each state/county calls up who they call up. the fla and md numbers were provided by cnn.

we're both waiting for 80 year something call ups. i suspect you get the call before we do.

ok, sounds like both states are struggling...it's definitely a complete mess down here.
I assume you saw the links re Md.

Here in Florida it's 65+ but try getting an appointment anywhere, much less a "call back"...can't even put your name on a list to get a call back...

it depends on your perspective. at least florida is getting it to seniors. the pace is the pace. and you're in florida in wintertime. enjoy it!

Had a much improved round today...

[njbill]

What is your obsession with NJ? You don't live here, right?

Why won't you identify the state you live in? Are you in the witness protection program? Fair is fair. Let me take some potshots at your state.
be my guest.
Did a little research and figured it out. Had forgotten. No potshots. Will leave that to you.


Not sure why you threw out a "demand" figure of 150-200 million. The actual number of +65s, etc. is way, way below that. No state currently is opening up vaccinations to everyone under age 65. The current demand is no more than tens of millions of people (double, of course, for shots).
not one state has kept the applications to over 65. I think you misread what I said, which was "no state currently is opening up vaccinations to everyone under age 65." I didn't say states are not vaccinating anyone under 65. Of course they are. Healthcare workers, etc. The reference was to current demand, which is those currently eligible (hence +65s, etc.). That group in no way totals 150-200 million, which is 60% of the U.S. population. it's higher than the daily supply, right? i am assuming you are with me on the point intended. let me know if you're not, i'll use different numbers? Your 150-200 m. figure is demonstrably wrong so no need to waste time on it.
All I know is that the prior administration did not do everything it could to manufacture as much supply as humanly possible starting last summer. They didn't invoke the DPA, they didn't strike enough mega-deals, they didn't crack the whip on manufacturers to go 24/7, expand/add facilities six to eight months ago. That is really beyond dispute at this point as I and others have demonstrated on this forum. If you prefer, wait to see what the Covid Commission report says. I know where I'll put my money.

Lack of supply is a nation-wide problem. Look at yesterday's WaPo article. Maybe some states aren't yet fully up to speed in administering vaccinations, but it seems many are. Look at reports out of NY.

I'm focusing on NJ because I live here and hope to get vaccinated here. Plus I have lots of friends and family here whom I'd like to see get vaccinated ASAP.

I don't know where you get your numbers on daily doses delivered (you attached a link Friday (I think) that shows total delivered but I don't see anything that breaks that down by day). But what you say seems to be contradicted by the governor. Today, in a national TV interview he said 100,000+ (didn't quantify the "plus") per week (let's say 165,000 based on six weeks (NJ first doses were on Dec. 15) and 989,000 total per your site). Murphy specifically said we could use (by that I'm sure he means administer) two to three times that.
go to the new jersey dept of health. they have at least weekly updates.Well familiar with that site. Look at it several times a day. On the list to get email updates from them, several of which are sent each week.
Even if NJ got 200,000 doses per week, that is still fewer than NJ is currently putting into arms (about 250,000). BTW, are you aware that the six mega sites have only been open a little more than one week? Administration capability is dramatically higher now than it was even two weeks ago.

Also, you understand that at the pace of administration last week (about 250,000) 450,000 doses is less than a two week supply? Not sure why you keep ignoring the point that you don't want to zero out everyday, and that you need to have a bit of supply on hand. You must have never worked in retail.

Murphy's complaints today aren't new. He has been complaining about lack of supply in NJ since last month.

https://patch.com/new-jersey/lacey/gov- ... -apologize

I am by no means a Murphy apologist in terms of his handling of Covid. He's done some good things, but a lot of bad things as well. But in terms of administering vaccines, so far I think he's done a decent job with the hand he has been dealt. Believe me, if I thought he was dropping the ball, I would be the first (even before you) to criticize him because it affects me personally. But he isn't.

If by "cohorts" you mean those eligible to be vaccinated, I would agree that the states have been too aggressive in expanding groupings. And that is counter to my own interest because I am being benefited by NJ's expanding to 65s. But NJ doesn't have sufficient supply to administer to the 65s right now. That's obvious as demonstrated by the chaotic appointment situation. They should have started, say, with 80s, then 75s, then 70s before going to 65s. This is probably the biggest current problem nationwide: not enough supply to meet +65 demand. But the lack of supply is the fault of T****.

Mega sites are good, but the best delivery system is local drug stores. Local doctors' offices would be great, too, but that seems a bridge too far at this point. But drug stores have a built in delivery system of their own. Get chunks of doses to, say, CVS, then let CVS distribute to each of their stores. A complication here is that that would only work for Moderna since local stores don't have the super freezers. In NJ we are not getting enough supply to deliver to drug stores. That's a simple fact which is a major road block.

Second shot appointments are a major, major concern in NJ. Article in one of the local papers today that someone who got his first shot at one of the mega sites was simply told to go out and register for the second one on his own. Yeah, right. Try and get an appointment, even within the newly expanded window. I am going to go over to my mega site this week and try to find out the specifics of getting appointments for second shots. (I know, sounds greedy, when many haven't gotten their first appointment.) Maybe they will blow me off, but I'm gonna try.

i gave you a link and you don't want to track it. Ah, bait and switch. Now you say I have to track it. Sure you can get daily deliveries if you go on the site every day and compare the total from one day to the next day. Big whoop. Thanks for finally conceding the site doesn't provide the number of daily doses delivered. Anyway, I have the info I need on NJ doses. My trust in your numbers took a decided nose dive when I discovered that your daily doses administered numbers were wrong, which I pointed out to you a couple of days ago. so i may just be done discussing numbers with you about new jersey. Sounds like a good idea. At first I thought you had valuable info. After looking at what you've had to say, and debating it with you a bit, I see that isn't really true. No value added. You just like to argue. Nothing inherently wrong with that. I do, too. We all do on this forum. It's a required box you have to check when you sign up.

i have said a buffer is fine and of course is expected. Yet you go on and on criticizing NJ for holding onto and not using their buffer. weren't you one of the guys that said we shouldn't be saving shots for second doses? Nope. cdc just gave you a 42.day window, too. You heard if from me first. You're welcome.

here ya go.... there are millions of people in new jersey that want shots, and millions won't be made available tomorrow. so it's a supply problem.


good luck to new jersey!

[Kismet]

What is your obsession with NJ? You don't live here, right?

Why won't you identify the state you live in? Are you in the witness protection program? Fair is fair. Let me take some potshots at your state.
be my guest.


Not sure why you threw out a "demand" figure of 150-200 million. The actual number of +65s, etc. is way, way below that. No state currently is opening up vaccinations to everyone under age 65. The current demand is no more than tens of millions of people (double, of course, for shots).
not one state has kept the applications to over 65. it's higher than the daily supply, right? i am assuming you are with me on the point intended. let me know if you're not, i'll use different numbers?
All I know is that the prior administration did not do everything it could to manufacture as much supply as humanly possible starting last summer. They didn't invoke the DPA, they didn't strike enough mega-deals, they didn't crack the whip on manufacturers to go 24/7, expand/add facilities six to eight months ago. That is really beyond dispute at this point as I and others have demonstrated on this forum. If you prefer, wait to see what the Covid Commission report says. I know where I'll put my money.

Lack of supply is a nation-wide problem. Look at yesterday's WaPo article. Maybe some states aren't yet fully up to speed in administering vaccinations, but it seems many are. Look at reports out of NY.

I'm focusing on NJ because I live here and hope to get vaccinated here. Plus I have lots of friends and family here whom I'd like to see get vaccinated ASAP.

I don't know where you get your numbers on daily doses delivered (you attached a link Friday (I think) that shows total delivered but I don't see anything that breaks that down by day). But what you say seems to be contradicted by the governor. Today, in a national TV interview he said 100,000+ (didn't quantify the "plus") per week (let's say 165,000 based on six weeks (NJ first doses were on Dec. 15) and 989,000 total per your site). Murphy specifically said we could use (by that I'm sure he means administer) two to three times that.
go to the new jersey dept of health. they have at least weekly updates.
Even if NJ got 200,000 doses per week, that is still fewer than NJ is currently putting into arms (about 250,000). BTW, are you aware that the six mega sites have only been open a little more than one week? Administration capability is dramatically higher now than it was even two weeks ago.

Also, you understand that at the pace of administration last week (about 250,000) 450,000 doses is less than a two week supply? Not sure why you keep ignoring the point that you don't want to zero out everyday, and that you need to have a bit of supply on hand. You must have never worked in retail.

Murphy's complaints today aren't new. He has been complaining about lack of supply in NJ since last month.
f by "cohorts" you mean those eligible to be vaccinated, I would agree that the states have been too aggressive in expanding groupings. And that is counter to my own interest because I am being benefited by NJ's expanding to 65s. But NJ doesn't have sufficient supply to administer to the 65s right now. That's obvious as demonstrated by the chaotic appointment situation. They should have started, say, with 80s, then 75s, then 70s before going to 65s. This is probably the biggest current problem nationwide: not enough supply to meet +65 demand. But the lack of supply is the fault of T****.

My state (Connecticut) has limited eligibility to 75+ right now so your statement is wrong right there. It is one of the Top 4 states in percent inoculations. We only get 14,000 doses allocated per day. It's the only way to not run out of second doses. 65+ is scheduled to begin making appointments by mid-February (likely for March dates). In neighboring NY, they went right to 65+ and now they are screaming that they are running out of vaccine. Our governor has done a good job of explaining this to folks and its appears prudent. Way I look at it, we've been doing this drill for 12 months so if we have to wait another two to get a vaccine that's no biggie.

To our state's credit, our town just announced appointments for 75+ starting today. They are open for 5 hours once a week. How many doses do you think they can do at that rate? Maybe 100? But they do it, to make it more convenient for older people in this town to get a vaccine (but good luck getting an appointment).

The other factor everyone has to deal with is appointment shopping. People are not stupid. They initially book an appointment, then spend all of their time shopping for a better location and date which is why people end up sitting at their computers re-booking and often crash the appointment sites. Also why appointments can be so fleeting and impossible to get.

Your drug store suggestion is a good one (for Moderna not Pfizer because of cold storage at retail) but until the state has enough supply they are not going to do that. Think the J+J one dose is a prime candidate for pharmacy distribution as it is almost identical to flu shot process but won't see that until March.

Then there is stuff like this which will also have an effect

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/01/2 ... ses-461537

"Pfizer ships fewer Covid vaccine vials to U.S. after Trump FDA label change

The change means fewer vials of vaccine as some states complain they've run out of shots."
Pfizer is counting extra coronavirus vaccine it uses to top off each of its vials toward its commitment to deliver 200 million shots for the U.S. pandemic response — even though there aren't enough syringes capable of squeezing out the extra fluid.

The Trump administration Food and Drug Administration on Jan. 6 approved a Pfizer request to update its vaccine label to clarify that six doses, instead of five, can be drawn from each vial. The new label came several weeks after the agency said pharmacists could administer any surplus they could successfully extract from the vials."

[Typical Lax Dad]

Exclusive: U.S. goal to squeeze more COVID shots from Pfizer vials hampered by syringe production

https://www.usnews.com/news/top-news/ar ... ontext=amp

[wgdsr]

What is your obsession with NJ? You don't live here, right?

Why won't you identify the state you live in? Are you in the witness protection program? Fair is fair. Let me take some potshots at your state.
be my guest.


Not sure why you threw out a "demand" figure of 150-200 million. The actual number of +65s, etc. is way, way below that. No state currently is opening up vaccinations to everyone under age 65. The current demand is no more than tens of millions of people (double, of course, for shots).
not one state has kept the applications to over 65. it's higher than the daily supply, right? i am assuming you are with me on the point intended. let me know if you're not, i'll use different numbers?
All I know is that the prior administration did not do everything it could to manufacture as much supply as humanly possible starting last summer. They didn't invoke the DPA, they didn't strike enough mega-deals, they didn't crack the whip on manufacturers to go 24/7, expand/add facilities six to eight months ago. That is really beyond dispute at this point as I and others have demonstrated on this forum. If you prefer, wait to see what the Covid Commission report says. I know where I'll put my money.

Lack of supply is a nation-wide problem. Look at yesterday's WaPo article. Maybe some states aren't yet fully up to speed in administering vaccinations, but it seems many are. Look at reports out of NY.

I'm focusing on NJ because I live here and hope to get vaccinated here. Plus I have lots of friends and family here whom I'd like to see get vaccinated ASAP.

I don't know where you get your numbers on daily doses delivered (you attached a link Friday (I think) that shows total delivered but I don't see anything that breaks that down by day). But what you say seems to be contradicted by the governor. Today, in a national TV interview he said 100,000+ (didn't quantify the "plus") per week (let's say 165,000 based on six weeks (NJ first doses were on Dec. 15) and 989,000 total per your site). Murphy specifically said we could use (by that I'm sure he means administer) two to three times that.
go to the new jersey dept of health. they have at least weekly updates.
Even if NJ got 200,000 doses per week, that is still fewer than NJ is currently putting into arms (about 250,000). BTW, are you aware that the six mega sites have only been open a little more than one week? Administration capability is dramatically higher now than it was even two weeks ago.

Also, you understand that at the pace of administration last week (about 250,000) 450,000 doses is less than a two week supply? Not sure why you keep ignoring the point that you don't want to zero out everyday, and that you need to have a bit of supply on hand. You must have never worked in retail.

Murphy's complaints today aren't new. He has been complaining about lack of supply in NJ since last month.
f by "cohorts" you mean those eligible to be vaccinated, I would agree that the states have been too aggressive in expanding groupings. And that is counter to my own interest because I am being benefited by NJ's expanding to 65s. But NJ doesn't have sufficient supply to administer to the 65s right now. That's obvious as demonstrated by the chaotic appointment situation. They should have started, say, with 80s, then 75s, then 70s before going to 65s. This is probably the biggest current problem nationwide: not enough supply to meet +65 demand. But the lack of supply is the fault of T****.

My state (Connecticut) has limited eligibility to 75+ right now so your statement is wrong right there. It is one of the Top 4 states in percent inoculations. We only get 14,000 doses allocated per day. It's the only way to not run out of second doses. 65+ is scheduled to begin making appointments by mid-February (likely for March dates). In neighboring NY, they went right to 65+ and now they are screaming that they are running out of vaccine. Our governor has done a good job of explaining this to folks and its appears prudent. Way I look at it, we've been doing this drill for 12 months so if we have to wait another two to get a vaccine that's no biggie.

To our state's credit, our town just announced appointments for 75+ starting today. They are open for 5 hours once a week. How many doses do you think they can do at that rate? Maybe 100? But they do it, to make it more convenient for older people in this town to get a vaccine (but good luck getting an appointment).

The other factor everyone has to deal with is appointment shopping. People are not stupid. They initially book an appointment, then spend all of their time shopping for a better location and date which is why people end up sitting at their computers re-booking and often crash the appointment sites. Also why appointments can be so fleeting and impossible to get.

Your drug store suggestion is a good one (for Moderna not Pfizer because of cold storage at retail) but until the state has enough supply they are not going to do that. Think the J+J one dose is a prime candidate for pharmacy distribution as it is almost identical to flu shot process but won't see that until March.

Then there is stuff like this which will also have an effect

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/01/2 ... ses-461537

"Pfizer ships fewer Covid vaccine vials to U.S. after Trump FDA label change

The change means fewer vials of vaccine as some states complain they've run out of shots."
Pfizer is counting extra coronavirus vaccine it uses to top off each of its vials toward its commitment to deliver 200 million shots for the U.S. pandemic response — even though there aren't enough syringes capable of squeezing out the extra fluid.

The Trump administration Food and Drug Administration on Jan. 6 approved a Pfizer request to update its vaccine label to clarify that six doses, instead of five, can be drawn from each vial. The new label came several weeks after the agency said pharmacists could administer any surplus they could successfully extract from the vials."

connecticut has done a good job, comparatively speaking, of getting shots in arms. one of my main points if i've made it poorly elsewhere is that this is a time of flux and governors would do well to explain their philosophies to their folks, go with the situation on the ground, and not lay blame. we could all use that right now. it sounds like yours has.

out of their 1st 260k vaccinations, only 47k were for over 75s. that may be changing now.
https://ctmirror.org/2021/01/22/its-a-n ... uGS6ihhvXI
however, it looks like they'll continue to be doing others in parallel:
https://ctmirror.org/2021/01/14/state-i ... ments/amp/
ct by population looks like they're a little ahead of the country in receiving vaccine by pop pro rata, so might be a reason for a temporary cutback. going forward if it's more consistent pro rata and we get 2m per day or more, they should be getting about 22k per day on average.

i don't have a problem with holding back for 2nd doses if that's what they're doing. keeping a consistent flow vs. using all daily and then having to stop for weeks if the supply doesn't continue to ramp (doesn't look like it will soon). the frustration of folks waiting and seeing no new appts might play a role in the call of the former. and a distrust in a supply break.