All things CoronaVirus

[njbill]

some of it is money and want to. sone if it is limited to actual resources that may/may not be able to be mined any sooner than we have vaccines avail from other vectors.

there's no longstanding (or really any) success for mrna. we happened to have those 2 come thru and be way more successful than anyone dreamed. they got billions to do it.

back in the day(may or june), could i envision most science experts thought a vaccine would be marginally successful, if we could even find one? yes. that's with hundreds to choose from. so what would their rec be in that case? front 20 billion for 30 vaccines? i highly doubt it.

These are fair points, but allow me a little push back.

In terms of mining resources, I thought that pertained to testing kits, not the vaccine. In any event, it would take a lot of persuading to get me to be convinced that this is really a material hold up or that it can’t be resolved. If there is enough stuff in the ground for a bazillion doses to be manufactured over the next couple of years, I suspect there’s a way to get it out of the ground quicker.

Yes, the scientists have come up with at least two vaccines whose apparent efficacy is better than any of us could’ve dreamed of. They get huge atta boys, Nobel prizes, trips to Disney, and a lifetime supply of Froot Loops. They did their job. Spectacularly.

But they have nothing to do with manufacturing. The manufacturing arms of their companies are different doobies. And then of course there is Uncle Donald’s laissez-faire (to be charitable) attitude about all this.

Not sure if there were actually 30 ponies in the race, but I don’t think that number is too far off. And it’s a very valid point that we can’t be paying billions to all of the ponies. But I’m sure those who were looking at vaccine development and emerging test results had a pretty good handle on which ponies to back after a while. Like let’s not give any money to the vaccines where the mice ended toes up. And certainly by early fall, that 30 number could’ve been whittled way, way down.

[a fan]

here's one article on getting things done. i could pass dozens if you'd like:
https://www.scientificamerican.com/arti ... nd-labor1/

Ummmm......this article repeats what I've been saying: they didn't build the needed facilities to produce the finished vaccine in the summer and fall.



According to a November report by the U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO), much of what is needed to produce these vaccines is in short supply. During interviews with GOA staff, manufacturing plant personnel described challenges in obtaining reagents and certain chemicals, as well as glass vials, syringes and other hardware. They also cited a shortage of “fill and finish” facilities where vaccine doses are loaded into sterile containers and a dearth of workers with the specialized skills needed to run mRNA production processes

i was hoping you'd pull out the piece or 2 that you liked.

get some production out there!!!

Yeah....I'm just frustrated. Thanks for the share.


One thing I will say----going forward, do we think this is the last pandemic we'll have as a nation?

If the answer is no....now's our chance to use the Covid money to get the infrastructure together to prep for the next one.

...I'm not holding my breath....

[wgdsr]

if you're interested in this stuff, bloomberg has a good tracker for it:

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covi ... tribution/

nj hasn't been sitting on it for a month, it's been building about every day. every day almost they get more in than they vaccinate.

from a "demand" side... yes, there is more than appointments being made. is there more demand than daily supply (not just distribution)? probably. but when you only innoculate 1/2 the supply you actually get, it's tough to lay it on supply.

are they holding back for 2nd shots? not getting transparency several weeks out? probably yes to both. what would help is not changing ish up every other day from the feds. and having manufacturers give a 2 and 3 week production expectation.

then just give a population pro rata to each state. why are we making it so complicated? but i'm just a yahoo on fanlax.

i would bet your cousin's friend gets moved up.

Maybe I’m not navigating your site correctly, or maybe you have been following NJ ins and outs over the last month, but I don’t see where you get historic daily doses delivered and administered.

In any event, I’m not all that interested in the past. I am more interested in going forward. I remain comfortable with the projections I gave you that the doses on hand would be used up in two or three weeks. Of course, that does not take into account additional doses delivered. My point is that I don’t think it’s unreasonable for New Jersey to have a two or three week cushion.

And, as I have said, New Jersey has in the last week or so dramatically ramped up their capabilities. Will there be a concomitant dramatic ramping up in the doses we get? If I understand what you are saying, that doesn’t seem likely.

Again, right now in New Jersey (and apparently elsewhere) it is very difficult to get an appointment. Demand is high. Capacity to administer doses is much greater than the ability to do so because of lack of supply.

And this is just with the over 65s and those with underlying conditions. What is going to happen when they open things up to everybody? My view is that the mega centers will need to operate 24/7 and all of the drugstores will need to get product. Right now New Jersey isn’t getting enough doses to warrant delivering them to all state drug stores or running the mega centers 24/7.

I have not heard anything about whether New Jersey is holding back second doses. I hope they are holding back at least one.

I have been thinking about driving over to the mega Center where hopefully I will get vaccinated and peppering them with lots of questions. Probably better that I don’t do that though.

n.j. it is a daily tracker. if you scroll down to the table, you can see what's been in done in the past (meaning also what they have) and see what it updates every day.

here's a short version:
nj is getting about 40,000 doses per day the last several days, 27,000 per day over the last week. they're vaccinating about 20 k per day over the last several days, 14 k per day over the last week.

that is almost twice as much supply as what is meeting demand. your issue is with the middleman.

supply does not look like near term it will get much better. it is what it is. could be wrong, we'll see and 3 mill per day isn't out of the question maybe. what could get dramatically better is distribution. i suspect it will because they are figuring it out. the megacenters are right up my alley.

but until distribution meets supply... supply ain't the problem.

[njbill]

I get different nos. for doses administered. 1/18 30k; 1/19 34k; 1/20 32k; 1/21 24k; 1/22 35k. Possible my nos. are off by one day. Can't find the delivered info you cite. I'm sure it's operator error from my end.

If your delivery nos. are correct, then NJ is pretty closely keeping pace, that is, NJ is administering close to or more than what they have been getting. Now of course you would expect current deliveries would (and should) outpace current administrations in a time of rising demand. You have to have doses on hand to meet future demand. Stated another way, the doses being delivered today -- you would expect -- will be administered over the next couple of weeks. You don't expect the doses delivered today to be administered today. That sounds like the problem NY is having which is creating a very unhappy situation there.

If by middleman you mean the statie who drives the vaccine from the fed dropoff to the mega sites, that makes no sense to me. I'd think that would be the easiest part of the process. If you mean site administration, well, that's the nub of our debate.

Just anecdotally, I am quite sure current demand in NJ well outstrips the current pace of delivery (you say 40,000). Rechecked my capacity nos. and it appears capacity (six megacenters plus 200 smaller sites) is lower than what I previously said, but it is still greater than 40,000. The key thing, I think, is that the current pace of delivery will not allow NJ to put doses into drugstores and doctors' offices, where people normally get vaccinated. To my thinking, that needs to happen if you really are going to move the administration needle.

I will say that, while everyone is overly anxious to get an appointment RIGHT NOW and is very frustrated that that isn't happening, I do think things will improve relatively soon. And hopefully a lot.

[Kismet]

Here in CT (one of the top 4 states in terms of inoculations) the DPH says they received approximately 46,000 doses per week from the Feds so it appears like they don't have a significant backlog except for what they may be holding for second doses given what they have been told by the Feds on supply, We are currently in Phase 1B and those 75+ are eligible for appointments which now run into March for second doses. It appears that they have about a dozen sites (mostly hospital facility venues likely because of the cold storage requirements) including a few megas. The state's population of 75+ is over 1.3 million and we only get 46,00 a week right now. The Governor has estimated that 65-74 cohort will be able to start booking appointments in early to mid-February (but it will be its for dates in March). Our local town government says they are planning to stand up a local facility in town to serve its residents soon. They just did a similar thing with testing. I suspect that approval of the one dose J+J vaccine might be a game changer - in addition to being a single dose, it only requires refrigeration and is good for 6 months in storage. Will bet it will be immediately sent to pharmacies just like they do the flu vaccine. Problem is manufacturing as it is a longer, more cumbersome process than either Pfizer or Moderna. So I'd say, once you understand the scope that things are going fairly well and perhaps spending less time reading critical media pieces and politicians would be a good thing right now

NY expanded the pool of eligible people based upon the CDC guidance for 65+ and is now running out of supply then blaming the Feds for the supply problem. CT did the math and have explained while they would like to expand the pool, they cannot based upon the supply they are getting. The way I look at it - we've been dealing with this for almost 12 months, so a few more months of the same waiting for the vaccine is not the end of the world - we've done 12 and certainly can do 2-3 more. Not talked about much, but also very important to get people vaccinated ASAP in large numbers is not only to stop the spread but to hopefully interrupt the mutation process as the more infections the greater the chance of a mutation that might affect the efficacy of the current vaccines. There has been some initial concern about the UK and SA variants on mortality and the latter may adversely affect the efficacy of the current mRNA vaccines.

As someone who spent a career in logistics, you shouldn't sleep on a fan's experience. Production can be affected by any number of things the least likely of which is the vaccine itself - check out this report from PBS earlier this week (and see what just goes in to making the vial which is a two layer glass construction). Also, a certain type of syringe can extract and 6th dose out of a stand 5 dose vial from the factory, a 20% bump in supply if you can supply that syringe to everybody

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/with- ... stribution

Lastly, spending less time and energy on immediate criticism and carping would help - while the WWII comparisons are somewhat analogous, it did take better than four years to beat the Japanese and there was great hardship and rationing at home during that time. You can bet our parents and grandparents sucked it up and dealt with it all and spent very little time and energy complaining about they way things were. They all understood clearly the final goal and their role in it. They accepted and fulfilled their role and you can see the results every day.

[CU88]

For the MAGA tinfoil crowd, Bill Gates implanting himself with a micro-chip to monitor where Bill Gates is at all times!!!


Bill Gates @BillGates
One of the benefits of being 65 is that I’m eligible for the COVID-19 vaccine. I got my first dose this week, and I feel great. Thank you to all of the scientists, trial participants, regulators, and frontline healthcare workers who got us to this point.

[MDlaxfan76]

Florida has been open for 65+ for some time...but lots of 84 year olds like my mom haven't been able to schedule an appt (check back every day...). Publix is now taking appointments, but both days they opened, she wasn't able to get an appt at 6AM in the morning...full right away...

[wgdsr]

here's one article on getting things done. i could pass dozens if you'd like:
https://www.scientificamerican.com/arti ... nd-labor1/

Ummmm......this article repeats what I've been saying: they didn't build the needed facilities to produce the finished vaccine in the summer and fall.



According to a November report by the U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO), much of what is needed to produce these vaccines is in short supply. During interviews with GOA staff, manufacturing plant personnel described challenges in obtaining reagents and certain chemicals, as well as glass vials, syringes and other hardware. They also cited a shortage of “fill and finish” facilities where vaccine doses are loaded into sterile containers and a dearth of workers with the specialized skills needed to run mRNA production processes

i was hoping you'd pull out the piece or 2 that you liked.

get some production out there!!!

Yeah....I'm just frustrated. Thanks for the share.


One thing I will say----going forward, do we think this is the last pandemic we'll have as a nation?

If the answer is no....now's our chance to use the Covid money to get the infrastructure together to prep for the next one.

...I'm not holding my breath....

probably not the last one we'll see. first term prez's by my estimation were not all that prepared to handle a pandemic. after getting their priorities running, getting a lay of the land, getting enough sciencey briefings and maybe seeing a smaller one come thru with mistakes made... they see how to mobilize. see: bush and obama.

biden comes in with at the forefront. if we can get past it (even as covid may not fully go away fir some time if ever), there's a decent chance building out infrastructure and building off mistakes to fill priority gaps can happen. until we get complacent.

[wgdsr]

some of it is money and want to. sone if it is limited to actual resources that may/may not be able to be mined any sooner than we have vaccines avail from other vectors.

there's no longstanding (or really any) success for mrna. we happened to have those 2 come thru and be way more successful than anyone dreamed. they got billions to do it.

back in the day(may or june), could i envision most science experts thought a vaccine would be marginally successful, if we could even find one? yes. that's with hundreds to choose from. so what would their rec be in that case? front 20 billion for 30 vaccines? i highly doubt it.

These are fair points, but allow me a little push back.

In terms of mining resources, I thought that pertained to testing kits, not the vaccine. In any event, it would take a lot of persuading to get me to be convinced that this is really a material hold up or that it can’t be resolved. If there is enough stuff in the ground for a bazillion doses to be manufactured over the next couple of years, I suspect there’s a way to get it out of the ground quicker.

Yes, the scientists have come up with at least two vaccines whose apparent efficacy is better than any of us could’ve dreamed of. They get huge atta boys, Nobel prizes, trips to Disney, and a lifetime supply of Froot Loops. They did their job. Spectacularly.

But they have nothing to do with manufacturing. The manufacturing arms of their companies are different doobies. And then of course there is Uncle Donald’s laissez-faire (to be charitable) attitude about all this.

Not sure if there were actually 30 ponies in the race, but I don’t think that number is too far off. And it’s a very valid point that we can’t be paying billions to all of the ponies. But I’m sure those who were looking at vaccine development and emerging test results had a pretty good handle on which ponies to back after a while. Like let’s not give any money to the vaccines where the mice ended toes up. And certainly by early fall, that 30 number could’ve been whittled way, way down.

ironically, some of the reagents for test kits are also used in mrnas. caused shortages ramping up because we were using so many tests.

how it has to do with manufacturing -- circle back several quarters, there is no cure for the common cold. those are largely rhinoviruses et al but also coronaviruses. and no cure/vaccine for covid 1. so there was hope (in vitro, just like hcq), but nothing close to knowing that anything would work.

so you identify your 6. and you throw, what? 100 billion at them? fine. what happens when those 6 all fall flat and 7's awesome and now doesn't have the resources for vials, production, yada?

and say you build 2 huge facilities and can clone moderna's mrna. resources get ramped up and happen. you pass all tight regulations and approvals for vaccine production facilities in no time. are you stealing moderna's staff to oversee? half of them? a third?

i don't disagree with some of your points and of course any endeavor has hurdles. my personal rub is with early treatment options and why we didn't rct every possible option. vitamin d, c, ivermectin, hcq, zinc, monoclonals, regeneron, blood antibodies, the list goes on. we only had 10s of thousands or 100s of thousands of subjects every damn day in the u.s. alone. straight failure to not know.

did you see pfizer pulled their production line in europe for several weeks to boost production levels? i think sets them back a month or so. the canadian and eurozone fanlax sites must be buzzing.

anyway, i get it. i'm in the camp that pfizer and moderna may not be maxed out. if they truly are at 2 million per day now, it's at least possible they may be able to push more as they get the hang of their supply chains and what they can get out of their shops. or new ones they may procure.

[njbill]

You are adding in testing and treatments, which wasn’t what we were discussing. To me, irrelevant really to the current issue. At least not in my interest tree.

Well, if you back six horses and they all fall flat, then you are f’d. But that didn’t happen. And I would suggest it wasn’t likely to happen.

Yes, there have been some issues with production of a vaccine, as you would expect given that billions of doses are needed. Baked into the cake as it were.

I would think vials are fungible. Why wouldn’t the same vial work for pretty much all of the vaccines?

We knew by April that the world was going to need billions of doses. While that was too early to know which vaccine candidates might work, it was not too early to make vials, syringes, needles, and other things needed in the vaccination process. Pretty sure that those things weren’t being produced 24/7 starting back then. New facilities weren’t being added, etc.

While I don’t disagree with the sentiment (which I mentioned last night) that we are actually moving ahead in this process, my main point is that there should be a lot more vaccine available right now. An awful lot more.

Here’s a lacrosse analogy. Ball is rolling loose on the ground. If my guy goes after it as hard and fast as he can, using 100% effort, but someone beats him to the ball, I’m OK with that. He tried his best. But if he only uses 80% effort and someone beats him to the ball, I’m not OK with that. If we had been using 100% effort since April and were still stuck in the mud, I could accept that. But we have been giving less than 100% effort for many, many months. That is not acceptable.

Quite a number of months ago, I wrote a post analogizing to WW II. The thrust of what I said was that if people back then had acted as people are acting today, we’d be speaking German. Caught a lot of flak. Shifting over to the production aspect, though, yes, it took four years to win the war. But through Herculean effort we were able to push back and win a major battle in six months. We haven’t won this Covid war yet, and probably won’t for a couple of years. We aren’t giving 100% effort like we did in World War II.

[Kismet]

Quite a number of months ago, I wrote a post analogizing to WW II. The thrust of what I said was that if people back then had acted as people are acting today, we’d be speaking German. Caught a lot of flak. Shifting over to the production aspect, though, yes, it took four years to win the war. But through Herculean effort we were able to push back and win a major battle in six months. We haven’t won this Covid war yet, and probably won’t for a couple of years. We aren’t giving 100% effort like we did in World War II.

Herculean effort for sure but at Midway, the U.S. Navy also got very lucky. Very....and at great cost in men (pilots/crews) and equipment. There is a great recent book Shattered Sword - The Untold Story of the Battle of Midway by Jonathan Parshall and Anthony Tully. Especially riveting to understand the sacrifice of all those TBD Devastator Torpedo Squadrons and crews who all knew they had inferior equipment yet they all pushed ahead despite that - They were massacred but their effort forced the enemy to deal with them which opened the door to the decisive dive bombing attacks that sealed the enemy's fate. The only complaint made (by Torpedo 8 commander John Waldron) was that they were on the wrong course and he disobeyed orders to change course from the rest of squadrons from USS Hornet. He found the enemy, attacked immediately and lost every plane and all but one crewman. His fellow Hornet fliers who stayed on course found nothing but empty ocean.

Your point remains valid, however. They didn't complain, they followed their orders and executed them to the best of their ability knowing the risks. Had they not done that, might have been a different outcome.

[wgdsr]

You are adding in testing and treatments, which wasn’t what we were discussing. To me, irrelevant really to the current issue. At least not in my interest tree.
you brought up testing and resource shortage. as it turns out, they actually align with mrna. so i offered that? the treatments i was agreeing with the sentiment and what i believe was more easily plausible, fruitful, knowable. that's all.

Well, if you back six horses and they all fall flat, then you are f’d. But that didn’t happen. And I would suggest it wasn’t likely to happen.
ok?
Yes, there have been some issues with production of a vaccine, as you would expect given that billions of doses are needed. Baked into the cake as it were.

I would think vials are fungible. Why wouldn’t the same vial work for pretty much all of the vaccines?
no idea. but even if yay, if you packaged 3/4 billion of them early with the wrong vaccine i doubt you could dump them out and re-use.
We knew by April that the world was going to need billions of doses. While that was too early to know which vaccine candidates might work, it was not too early to make vials, syringes, needles, and other things needed in the vaccination process. Pretty sure that those things weren’t being produced 24/7 starting back then. New facilities weren’t being added, etc.
i haven't heard vials, syringes have been the hold up recently. me and a fan have a fifth on it.
While I don’t disagree with the sentiment (which I mentioned last night) that we are actually moving ahead in this process, my main point is that there should be a lot more vaccine available right now. An awful lot more.
all the vaccine from moderna is a result of our backing. as far as more, i just don't know enough about it.
Here’s a lacrosse analogy. Ball is rolling loose on the ground. If my guy goes after it as hard and fast as he can, using 100% effort, but someone beats him to the ball, I’m OK with that. He tried his best. But if he only uses 80% effort and someone beats him to the ball, I’m not OK with that. If we had been using 100% effort since April and were still stuck in the mud, I could accept that. But we have been giving less than 100% effort for many, many months. That is not acceptable.

Quite a number of months ago, I wrote a post analogizing to WW II. The thrust of what I said was that if people back then had acted as people are acting today, we’d be speaking German. Caught a lot of flak. Shifting over to the production aspect, though, yes, it took four years to win the war. But through Herculean effort we were able to push back and win a major battle in six months. We haven’t won this Covid war yet, and probably won’t for a couple of years. We aren’t giving 100% effort like we did in World War II.

it's a take.

interesting in the pfizer production holdup/expansion out of belgium... they've put the new goal at 2 billion annual vs 1.3 billion. not 100% sure but the bump may all come from this move? that's an additional 2 mill per day. also tough to tell if that's all immediately. wonder if that's doable in their u.s. plant? or moderna's/lonza. the headlines await.

[Matnum PI]

Surge of Student Suicides Pushes Las Vegas Schools to Reopen https://nyti.ms/3oeJ33Q

[Typical Lax Dad]

Surge of Student Suicides Pushes Las Vegas Schools to Reopen https://nyti.ms/3oeJ33Q

Thanks for posting that. There are no easy answers and a different response may have helped us get kids back to school earlier.

[youthathletics]

Surge of Student Suicides Pushes Las Vegas Schools to Reopen https://nyti.ms/3oeJ33Q

Thanks for posting that. There are no easy answers and a different response may have helped us get kids back to school earlier.

Any suggestions? Sadly, the majority scientist and physicians have encouraged getting children in school. It seems the school boards who are not scientists and physicians are overruling them, thus not listening to science.

I certainly hope things take a turn for the better.

[Typical Lax Dad]

Surge of Student Suicides Pushes Las Vegas Schools to Reopen https://nyti.ms/3oeJ33Q

Thanks for posting that. There are no easy answers and a different response may have helped us get kids back to school earlier.

Any suggestions? Sadly, the majority scientist and physicians have encouraged getting children in school. It seems the school boards who are not scientists and physicians are overruling them, thus not listening to science.

I certainly hope things take a turn for the better.

No. Our town had a fair amount of in person learning. Hopefully more in the Spring if the numbers come down.

[holmes435]

Surge of Student Suicides Pushes Las Vegas Schools to Reopen https://nyti.ms/3oeJ33Q

Thanks for posting that. There are no easy answers and a different response may have helped us get kids back to school earlier.

Any suggestions?

Nuke social media from orbit. It's the only way to be sure.

[youthathletics]

Surge of Student Suicides Pushes Las Vegas Schools to Reopen https://nyti.ms/3oeJ33Q

Thanks for posting that. There are no easy answers and a different response may have helped us get kids back to school earlier.

Any suggestions?

Nuke social media from orbit. It's the only way to be sure.

Something we can all agree on.

[Typical Lax Dad]

Surge of Student Suicides Pushes Las Vegas Schools to Reopen https://nyti.ms/3oeJ33Q

Thanks for posting that. There are no easy answers and a different response may have helped us get kids back to school earlier.

Any suggestions?

Nuke social media from orbit. It's the only way to be sure.

+1000

[njbill]

Murphy said today on CNN that New Jersey is currently getting a little over 100,000 doses per week. Says they could use two or three times that. Currently, New Jersey has six mega vaccination sites plus over 200 smaller sites.

As I have been saying, supply is the main problem.