NOW WE ARE TALKING!
FEMA would operate up to 100 federally run mass vaccination sites...
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2 ... ass-sites/
Just about every football and baseball stadium are designed to handle thousands of cars and tens of thousands of people. I would drive hours and sit in the traffic flow to get my vaccine at a drive thru center run by FEMA. They could rotate staffing and offer these 24/7.
There are even onsite facilities for restrooms and food service. Incentivize people in each region with free food and fan gear from their favorite team, for every person who gets the vaccine.
GO BIG
All things CoronaVirus
Re: All things CoronaVirus
by cradleandshoot » Fri Aug 13, 2021 8:57 am
Mr moderator, deactivate my account.
You have heck this forum up to making it nothing more than a joke. I hope you are happy.
This is cradle and shoot signing out.
Mr moderator, deactivate my account.
You have heck this forum up to making it nothing more than a joke. I hope you are happy.
This is cradle and shoot signing out.
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- Joined: Mon Jul 30, 2018 12:10 pm
Re: All things CoronaVirus
Hopefully it works out. Vaccine production should catch-up.CU88 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 22, 2021 1:25 pm NOW WE ARE TALKING!
FEMA would operate up to 100 federally run mass vaccination sites...
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2 ... ass-sites/
Just about every football and baseball stadium are designed to handle thousands of cars and tens of thousands of people. I would drive hours and sit in the traffic flow to get my vaccine at a drive thru center run by FEMA. They could rotate staffing and offer these 24/7.
There are even onsite facilities for restrooms and food service. Incentivize people in each region with free food and fan gear from their favorite team, for every person who gets the vaccine.
GO BIG
“I wish you would!”
Re: All things CoronaVirus
Bidens plan calls for using the Defense Production Act to increase manufacturing capacity. And deploying ON-SITE staff to monitor MANUFACTURING of vaccines and components needed for the complete vaccine.
The devil is in the details....but......
https://www.scribd.com/document/4915855 ... from_embed
The devil is in the details....but......
https://www.scribd.com/document/4915855 ... from_embed
Re: All things CoronaVirus
CU88 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 22, 2021 1:25 pm NOW WE ARE TALKING!
FEMA would operate up to 100 federally run mass vaccination sites...
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2 ... ass-sites/
Just about every football and baseball stadium are designed to handle thousands of cars and tens of thousands of people. I would drive hours and sit in the traffic flow to get my vaccine at a drive thru center run by FEMA. They could rotate staffing and offer these 24/7.
There are even onsite facilities for restrooms and food service. Incentivize people in each region with free food and fan gear from their favorite team, for every person who gets the vaccine.
GO BIG
The problem is not the "last mile" in many states right now. The problem is supply.
Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus
kramerica.inc wrote: ↑Fri Jan 22, 2021 9:28 amIs that good or “not enough?”Carroll81 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 22, 2021 8:38 am Top 5 in vacinations per 100 people in the world
Most vaccinations given in the world by a factor of 3.
Over 1 Million doses per day.
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
I think Good and "not enough".
"Not enough", if the Goal is 100 Million in 100 days, we can do that without making any more progress.
Good in that the process has ramped up and we are learning how to do this. It should get better. We went from 0 to 1 Mil per day in about 6 weeks? That is actually pretty impressive.
The big question is what is the limit on the production at this point. I have not seen any projections of that. If anybody has valid links, please post.
Re: All things CoronaVirus
Yes, the article itself even says the most pressing issue is supply. But there are a lot of distribution issues as well, and this is targeting "gaps in their existing infrastructure".Carroll81 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 22, 2021 3:54 pmCU88 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 22, 2021 1:25 pm NOW WE ARE TALKING!
FEMA would operate up to 100 federally run mass vaccination sites...
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2 ... ass-sites/
Just about every football and baseball stadium are designed to handle thousands of cars and tens of thousands of people. I would drive hours and sit in the traffic flow to get my vaccine at a drive thru center run by FEMA. They could rotate staffing and offer these 24/7.
There are even onsite facilities for restrooms and food service. Incentivize people in each region with free food and fan gear from their favorite team, for every person who gets the vaccine.
GO BIG
The problem is not the "last mile" in many states right now. The problem is supply.
There are a lot of problems to address, and this is one of them.
Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus
Been asking that question for six months. The fact that no one can tell you where the bottlenecks (glass, labels, doses, syringes, etc.) are in delivering a finished dose to each State tells you all you need to know.
And that is: no one in the Press or Trump Administration bothered to answer that key question.
We're about to find out the answer to your question in short order.
And this is why I've been so frustrated.....these are entirely foreseeable problems.
Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus
when we signed contracts with pfizer and moderna, they were to have each supply 100 million by the end of the first quarter. some of that was supposed to be before year end.Carroll81 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 22, 2021 4:02 pmkramerica.inc wrote: ↑Fri Jan 22, 2021 9:28 amIs that good or “not enough?”Carroll81 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 22, 2021 8:38 am Top 5 in vacinations per 100 people in the world
Most vaccinations given in the world by a factor of 3.
Over 1 Million doses per day.
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
I think Good and "not enough".
"Not enough", if the Goal is 100 Million in 100 days, we can do that without making any more progress.
Good in that the process has ramped up and we are learning how to do this. It should get better. We went from 0 to 1 Mil per day in about 6 weeks? That is actually pretty impressive.
The big question is what is the limit on the production at this point. I have not seen any projections of that. If anybody has valid links, please post.
but what became a prediction from those companies of supplying us with ~75 million by year end turned to ~50 million estimate and then we ended up actually getting about 12. this all happened in the 4th quarter.
then we inked extended deals with each of them. for pfizer, that amounted to another 100 million with an expectation that 70 million might get done in the 2nd quarter. moderna, it was for 100 million to be placed in the 2nd quarter, none additional in the first.
so notwithstanding the continued revised down estimates and reality of end of year 2020, these guys are supposed to deliver 200 million by the end of q1. 12 million was done in december, we'll maybe be between another 40-50 million in january. for the last ~ 2 weeks, it's been 2 million per day. if it continues at that pace, that's about 170-180 million by the end of q1. so if they deliver on contract, it won't be much more than 2 million per day. for them to put out much more than that daily, that'd take them exceeding contract which wasn't apparent or the companies couldn't commit to at the time the supplemental options were signed.
tl;dr - we may be at their max for now or close to it. tbd.
maybe someone can explain to me, because the thoughts on supply being the issue perplex me a bit. we have distributed almost 40 million doses. we have vaccinated fewer than 20 million. that means there are 20 million doses out there, at the states. that number is growing every day. in theory, we could vaccinate almost 20 million people tomorrow. how is it that the last mile isn't a problem, and the problem right now is supply?
- youthathletics
- Posts: 15896
- Joined: Mon Jul 30, 2018 7:36 pm
Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus
Would the bottle neck be just that....because every damned country is searching/feening for the same thing. It's not like an earthquake where many can help one....it is literally few trying to help all.a fan wrote: ↑Fri Jan 22, 2021 4:27 pmBeen asking that question for six months. The fact that no one can tell you where the bottlenecks (glass, labels, doses, syringes, etc.) are in delivering a finished dose to each State tells you all you need to know.
And that is: no one in the Press or Trump Administration bothered to answer that key question.
We're about to find out the answer to your question in short order.
And this is why I've been so frustrated.....these are entirely foreseeable problems.
A fraudulent intent, however carefully concealed at the outset, will generally, in the end, betray itself.
~Livy
“There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn’t true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true.” -Soren Kierkegaard
~Livy
“There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn’t true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true.” -Soren Kierkegaard
Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus
Thanks for the math. Appreciated.wgdsr wrote: ↑Fri Jan 22, 2021 4:44 pmwhen we signed contracts with pfizer and moderna, they were to have each supply 100 million by the end of the first quarter. some of that was supposed to be before year end.Carroll81 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 22, 2021 4:02 pmkramerica.inc wrote: ↑Fri Jan 22, 2021 9:28 amIs that good or “not enough?”Carroll81 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 22, 2021 8:38 am Top 5 in vacinations per 100 people in the world
Most vaccinations given in the world by a factor of 3.
Over 1 Million doses per day.
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
I think Good and "not enough".
"Not enough", if the Goal is 100 Million in 100 days, we can do that without making any more progress.
Good in that the process has ramped up and we are learning how to do this. It should get better. We went from 0 to 1 Mil per day in about 6 weeks? That is actually pretty impressive.
The big question is what is the limit on the production at this point. I have not seen any projections of that. If anybody has valid links, please post.
but what became a prediction from those companies of supplying us with ~75 million by year end turned to ~50 million estimate and then we ended up actually getting about 12. this all happened in the 4th quarter.
then we inked extended deals with each of them. for pfizer, that amounted to another 100 million with an expectation that 70 million might get done in the 2nd quarter. moderna, it was for 100 million to be placed in the 2nd quarter, none additional in the first.
so notwithstanding the continued revised down estimates and reality of end of year 2020, these guys are supposed to deliver 200 million by the end of q1. 12 million was done in december, we'll maybe be between another 40-50 million in january. for the last ~ 2 weeks, it's been 2 million per day. if it continues at that pace, that's about 170-180 million by the end of q1. so if they deliver on contract, it won't be much more than 2 million per day. for them to put out much more than that daily, that'd take them exceeding contract which wasn't apparent or the companies couldn't commit to at the time the supplemental options were signed.
tl;dr - we may be at their max for now or close to it. tbd.
maybe someone can explain to me, because the thoughts on supply being the issue perplex me a bit. we have distributed almost 40 million doses. we have vaccinated fewer than 20 million. that means there are 20 million doses out there, at the states. that number is growing every day. in theory, we could vaccinate almost 20 million people tomorrow. how is it that the last mile isn't a problem, and the problem right now is supply?
I would expand my previous to be "supply chain" rather than just "supply". My experience here in PA is that the current Points of Distribution (POD) are all requesting about 2x what they currently get each week. If your calculations hold, then the issue right now is the chain. Here are some guesses that could be influencing that:
- Changing recommendations on who to put in each Phase.
- Lack of refrigerated transport
- Health Departments rather than Emergency Managers managing the distribution
- Simple inertia of trying to spin this stuff up
- Issue could vary from locale to locale
As afan said, it is hard to believe that no one has spoken to where the bottle necks are.
Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus
It's a simple conversation to me: how did the US win WWII?youthathletics wrote: ↑Fri Jan 22, 2021 4:46 pmWould the bottle neck be just that....because every damned country is searching/feening for the same thing. It's not like an earthquake where many can help one....it is literally few trying to help all.a fan wrote: ↑Fri Jan 22, 2021 4:27 pmBeen asking that question for six months. The fact that no one can tell you where the bottlenecks (glass, labels, doses, syringes, etc.) are in delivering a finished dose to each State tells you all you need to know.
And that is: no one in the Press or Trump Administration bothered to answer that key question.
We're about to find out the answer to your question in short order.
And this is why I've been so frustrated.....these are entirely foreseeable problems.
We're not behaving like we did in WWII. We are CHOOSING to drag the pandemic out. We have a viable vaccine, and we can't, as a country, make it fast enough. This is a failure of the country that pretty much invented mass production.
Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus
a fan is talking about production. he's convinced we could be producing more.Carroll81 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 22, 2021 5:48 pmThanks for the math. Appreciated.wgdsr wrote: ↑Fri Jan 22, 2021 4:44 pmwhen we signed contracts with pfizer and moderna, they were to have each supply 100 million by the end of the first quarter. some of that was supposed to be before year end.Carroll81 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 22, 2021 4:02 pmkramerica.inc wrote: ↑Fri Jan 22, 2021 9:28 amIs that good or “not enough?”Carroll81 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 22, 2021 8:38 am Top 5 in vacinations per 100 people in the world
Most vaccinations given in the world by a factor of 3.
Over 1 Million doses per day.
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
I think Good and "not enough".
"Not enough", if the Goal is 100 Million in 100 days, we can do that without making any more progress.
Good in that the process has ramped up and we are learning how to do this. It should get better. We went from 0 to 1 Mil per day in about 6 weeks? That is actually pretty impressive.
The big question is what is the limit on the production at this point. I have not seen any projections of that. If anybody has valid links, please post.
but what became a prediction from those companies of supplying us with ~75 million by year end turned to ~50 million estimate and then we ended up actually getting about 12. this all happened in the 4th quarter.
then we inked extended deals with each of them. for pfizer, that amounted to another 100 million with an expectation that 70 million might get done in the 2nd quarter. moderna, it was for 100 million to be placed in the 2nd quarter, none additional in the first.
so notwithstanding the continued revised down estimates and reality of end of year 2020, these guys are supposed to deliver 200 million by the end of q1. 12 million was done in december, we'll maybe be between another 40-50 million in january. for the last ~ 2 weeks, it's been 2 million per day. if it continues at that pace, that's about 170-180 million by the end of q1. so if they deliver on contract, it won't be much more than 2 million per day. for them to put out much more than that daily, that'd take them exceeding contract which wasn't apparent or the companies couldn't commit to at the time the supplemental options were signed.
tl;dr - we may be at their max for now or close to it. tbd.
maybe someone can explain to me, because the thoughts on supply being the issue perplex me a bit. we have distributed almost 40 million doses. we have vaccinated fewer than 20 million. that means there are 20 million doses out there, at the states. that number is growing every day. in theory, we could vaccinate almost 20 million people tomorrow. how is it that the last mile isn't a problem, and the problem right now is supply?
I would expand my previous to be "supply chain" rather than just "supply". My experience here in PA is that the current Points of Distribution (POD) are all requesting about 2x what they currently get each week. If your calculations hold, then the issue right now is the chain. Here are some guesses that could be influencing that:
- Changing recommendations on who to put in each Phase.
- Lack of refrigerated transport
- Health Departments rather than Emergency Managers managing the distribution
- Simple inertia of trying to spin this stuff up
I am sure there are others. Three of them are clear management issues that can be addresses quickly. The first is a political issue, which may or may not be settled.
- Issue could vary from locale to locale
As afan said, it is hard to believe that no one has spoken to where the bottle necks are.
but just talking about today, your state has the vaccine. what most states have put in place have been to deliver local. and small. so they have a ton of vaccine. but it's in a warehouse, and they haven't figured out yet how to get to all those small numerous locales.
so if it's not last mile, it's second to last mile. in addition to planning for the next week or 2 (have second shots avail).
i've said for a bit now it should be large pops, most vulnerable pops, and large distribution centers. then figure out with the delta how to get to smaller, rural. for people who can't drive a half hour or hour.
500 megasites, 1000 sub-megas. not 50,000 pharmacies and drs offices.
but the problem isn't supply. it's there. just not getting out to their preferred small, multiple local destinations.
- MDlaxfan76
- Posts: 27129
- Joined: Wed Aug 01, 2018 5:40 pm
Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus
The explanation I've heard is the states are only getting a 2-3 day heads up on when the next supply shipment is to come and how much....so, they're not able to schedule out for weeks the actual vaccinations...wgdsr wrote: ↑Fri Jan 22, 2021 4:44 pmwhen we signed contracts with pfizer and moderna, they were to have each supply 100 million by the end of the first quarter. some of that was supposed to be before year end.Carroll81 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 22, 2021 4:02 pmkramerica.inc wrote: ↑Fri Jan 22, 2021 9:28 amIs that good or “not enough?”Carroll81 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 22, 2021 8:38 am Top 5 in vacinations per 100 people in the world
Most vaccinations given in the world by a factor of 3.
Over 1 Million doses per day.
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
I think Good and "not enough".
"Not enough", if the Goal is 100 Million in 100 days, we can do that without making any more progress.
Good in that the process has ramped up and we are learning how to do this. It should get better. We went from 0 to 1 Mil per day in about 6 weeks? That is actually pretty impressive.
The big question is what is the limit on the production at this point. I have not seen any projections of that. If anybody has valid links, please post.
but what became a prediction from those companies of supplying us with ~75 million by year end turned to ~50 million estimate and then we ended up actually getting about 12. this all happened in the 4th quarter.
then we inked extended deals with each of them. for pfizer, that amounted to another 100 million with an expectation that 70 million might get done in the 2nd quarter. moderna, it was for 100 million to be placed in the 2nd quarter, none additional in the first.
so notwithstanding the continued revised down estimates and reality of end of year 2020, these guys are supposed to deliver 200 million by the end of q1. 12 million was done in december, we'll maybe be between another 40-50 million in january. for the last ~ 2 weeks, it's been 2 million per day. if it continues at that pace, that's about 170-180 million by the end of q1. so if they deliver on contract, it won't be much more than 2 million per day. for them to put out much more than that daily, that'd take them exceeding contract which wasn't apparent or the companies couldn't commit to at the time the supplemental options were signed.
tl;dr - we may be at their max for now or close to it. tbd.
maybe someone can explain to me, because the thoughts on supply being the issue perplex me a bit. we have distributed almost 40 million doses. we have vaccinated fewer than 20 million. that means there are 20 million doses out there, at the states. that number is growing every day. in theory, we could vaccinate almost 20 million people tomorrow. how is it that the last mile isn't a problem, and the problem right now is supply?
Sounds crazy, but I suspect this is exactly the explanation for the gap between 'distributed' and 'in arms'...we also hear that there are reserves at the companies, but the fed government wasn't giving them a schedule at to where and how much to ship...
If so, that CAN be improved.
Re: All things CoronaVirus
joe says we won't be able to do anything to change the course of the pandemic over the next couple months and it's going to get ugly.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/22/biden-s ... idappshare
don't think i agree, but we'll see.
fauci says 180k's for the past week in cases has something to do with the holidays. not sure why this past week would matter for holiday reporting. i've said we'll see directional after this weekend likely. the 20% percent decline is a mirage if that's what he meant.
but we're 10-15% lower on cases since xmas, 10% lower on hospitalizations since peak. uk news has not been good. hope we dodge a bullet there. next week on deaths and cases will point to near term direction.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/22/biden-s ... idappshare
don't think i agree, but we'll see.
fauci says 180k's for the past week in cases has something to do with the holidays. not sure why this past week would matter for holiday reporting. i've said we'll see directional after this weekend likely. the 20% percent decline is a mirage if that's what he meant.
but we're 10-15% lower on cases since xmas, 10% lower on hospitalizations since peak. uk news has not been good. hope we dodge a bullet there. next week on deaths and cases will point to near term direction.
Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus
It's simple logic.
Maybe this helps: there are other vaccine manufacturing facilities outside of the US, correct?
So CLEARLY, more vaccine can be produced that what the US is currently producing. Now how are these other countries making vaccine?
They have the manufacturing facilities. Simple.
So there you go. 1+1=2. We are capped at our current capacity, because we chose NOT to build the additional facilities needed to make more , quickly.
And then pretend what that would mean. We could flood the States with vaccines. Every doctors office, every pharmacy. FEMA sites (sports stadiums).
Flood the country with vaccine, intead of diddling around trying to figure out how to get what is plainly an inadequate supply out to the public. The fact that we don't have enough vaccine, means that we have to waste time and energy rationing out who gets it, and who doesn't. Think about how much easier it would be if we simply said "can you fog a mirror? Great. You get a vaccine, roll up your sleeve, pal".
Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus
we are not making widgets. we won't agree.a fan wrote: ↑Fri Jan 22, 2021 6:44 pmIt's simple logic.
Maybe this helps: there are other vaccine manufacturing facilities outside of the US, correct?
So CLEARLY, more vaccine can be produced that what the US is currently producing. Now how are these other countries making vaccine?
They have the manufacturing facilities. Simple.
So there you go. 1+1=2. We are capped at our current capacity, because we chose NOT to build the additional facilities needed to make more , quickly.
And then pretend what that would mean. We could flood the States with vaccines. Every doctors office, every pharmacy. FEMA sites (sports stadiums).
Flood the country with vaccine, intead of diddling around trying to figure out how to get what is plainly an inadequate supply out to the public. The fact that we don't have enough vaccine, means that we have to waste time and energy rationing out who gets it, and who doesn't. Think about how much easier it would be if we simply said "can you fog a mirror? Great. You get a vaccine, roll up your sleeve, pal".
- youthathletics
- Posts: 15896
- Joined: Mon Jul 30, 2018 7:36 pm
Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus
In reference to the supply....noted here in MD.MDlaxfan76 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 22, 2021 6:30 pmThe explanation I've heard is the states are only getting a 2-3 day heads up on when the next supply shipment is to come and how much....so, they're not able to schedule out for weeks the actual vaccinations...wgdsr wrote: ↑Fri Jan 22, 2021 4:44 pmwhen we signed contracts with pfizer and moderna, they were to have each supply 100 million by the end of the first quarter. some of that was supposed to be before year end.Carroll81 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 22, 2021 4:02 pmkramerica.inc wrote: ↑Fri Jan 22, 2021 9:28 amIs that good or “not enough?”Carroll81 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 22, 2021 8:38 am Top 5 in vacinations per 100 people in the world
Most vaccinations given in the world by a factor of 3.
Over 1 Million doses per day.
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
I think Good and "not enough".
"Not enough", if the Goal is 100 Million in 100 days, we can do that without making any more progress.
Good in that the process has ramped up and we are learning how to do this. It should get better. We went from 0 to 1 Mil per day in about 6 weeks? That is actually pretty impressive.
The big question is what is the limit on the production at this point. I have not seen any projections of that. If anybody has valid links, please post.
but what became a prediction from those companies of supplying us with ~75 million by year end turned to ~50 million estimate and then we ended up actually getting about 12. this all happened in the 4th quarter.
then we inked extended deals with each of them. for pfizer, that amounted to another 100 million with an expectation that 70 million might get done in the 2nd quarter. moderna, it was for 100 million to be placed in the 2nd quarter, none additional in the first.
so notwithstanding the continued revised down estimates and reality of end of year 2020, these guys are supposed to deliver 200 million by the end of q1. 12 million was done in december, we'll maybe be between another 40-50 million in january. for the last ~ 2 weeks, it's been 2 million per day. if it continues at that pace, that's about 170-180 million by the end of q1. so if they deliver on contract, it won't be much more than 2 million per day. for them to put out much more than that daily, that'd take them exceeding contract which wasn't apparent or the companies couldn't commit to at the time the supplemental options were signed.
tl;dr - we may be at their max for now or close to it. tbd.
maybe someone can explain to me, because the thoughts on supply being the issue perplex me a bit. we have distributed almost 40 million doses. we have vaccinated fewer than 20 million. that means there are 20 million doses out there, at the states. that number is growing every day. in theory, we could vaccinate almost 20 million people tomorrow. how is it that the last mile isn't a problem, and the problem right now is supply?
Sounds crazy, but I suspect this is exactly the explanation for the gap between 'distributed' and 'in arms'...we also hear that there are reserves at the companies, but the fed government wasn't giving them a schedule at to where and how much to ship...
If so, that CAN be improved.
In an email I received today, note from Elrich ....
County Prepares to Move to Phase 1B COVID-19 Vaccine Schedule, But More Vaccines Needed to Meet Demand; Those 75 and Older Can Preregister
A fraudulent intent, however carefully concealed at the outset, will generally, in the end, betray itself.
~Livy
“There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn’t true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true.” -Soren Kierkegaard
~Livy
“There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn’t true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true.” -Soren Kierkegaard
- youthathletics
- Posts: 15896
- Joined: Mon Jul 30, 2018 7:36 pm
Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus
Not arguing here, and I wished it were this simple, but we are not melting steel originally assigned for a fender and turning it into tank tracks or mortar shells.a fan wrote: ↑Fri Jan 22, 2021 5:55 pmIt's a simple conversation to me: how did the US win WWII?youthathletics wrote: ↑Fri Jan 22, 2021 4:46 pmWould the bottle neck be just that....because every damned country is searching/feening for the same thing. It's not like an earthquake where many can help one....it is literally few trying to help all.a fan wrote: ↑Fri Jan 22, 2021 4:27 pmBeen asking that question for six months. The fact that no one can tell you where the bottlenecks (glass, labels, doses, syringes, etc.) are in delivering a finished dose to each State tells you all you need to know.
And that is: no one in the Press or Trump Administration bothered to answer that key question.
We're about to find out the answer to your question in short order.
And this is why I've been so frustrated.....these are entirely foreseeable problems.
We're not behaving like we did in WWII. We are CHOOSING to drag the pandemic out. We have a viable vaccine, and we can't, as a country, make it fast enough. This is a failure of the country that pretty much invented mass production.
A fraudulent intent, however carefully concealed at the outset, will generally, in the end, betray itself.
~Livy
“There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn’t true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true.” -Soren Kierkegaard
~Livy
“There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn’t true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true.” -Soren Kierkegaard
Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus
yes. they need to figure out the 2nd to last mile.youthathletics wrote: ↑Fri Jan 22, 2021 7:36 pmIn reference to the supply....noted here in MD.MDlaxfan76 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 22, 2021 6:30 pmThe explanation I've heard is the states are only getting a 2-3 day heads up on when the next supply shipment is to come and how much....so, they're not able to schedule out for weeks the actual vaccinations...wgdsr wrote: ↑Fri Jan 22, 2021 4:44 pmwhen we signed contracts with pfizer and moderna, they were to have each supply 100 million by the end of the first quarter. some of that was supposed to be before year end.Carroll81 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 22, 2021 4:02 pmkramerica.inc wrote: ↑Fri Jan 22, 2021 9:28 amIs that good or “not enough?”Carroll81 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 22, 2021 8:38 am Top 5 in vacinations per 100 people in the world
Most vaccinations given in the world by a factor of 3.
Over 1 Million doses per day.
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
I think Good and "not enough".
"Not enough", if the Goal is 100 Million in 100 days, we can do that without making any more progress.
Good in that the process has ramped up and we are learning how to do this. It should get better. We went from 0 to 1 Mil per day in about 6 weeks? That is actually pretty impressive.
The big question is what is the limit on the production at this point. I have not seen any projections of that. If anybody has valid links, please post.
but what became a prediction from those companies of supplying us with ~75 million by year end turned to ~50 million estimate and then we ended up actually getting about 12. this all happened in the 4th quarter.
then we inked extended deals with each of them. for pfizer, that amounted to another 100 million with an expectation that 70 million might get done in the 2nd quarter. moderna, it was for 100 million to be placed in the 2nd quarter, none additional in the first.
so notwithstanding the continued revised down estimates and reality of end of year 2020, these guys are supposed to deliver 200 million by the end of q1. 12 million was done in december, we'll maybe be between another 40-50 million in january. for the last ~ 2 weeks, it's been 2 million per day. if it continues at that pace, that's about 170-180 million by the end of q1. so if they deliver on contract, it won't be much more than 2 million per day. for them to put out much more than that daily, that'd take them exceeding contract which wasn't apparent or the companies couldn't commit to at the time the supplemental options were signed.
tl;dr - we may be at their max for now or close to it. tbd.
maybe someone can explain to me, because the thoughts on supply being the issue perplex me a bit. we have distributed almost 40 million doses. we have vaccinated fewer than 20 million. that means there are 20 million doses out there, at the states. that number is growing every day. in theory, we could vaccinate almost 20 million people tomorrow. how is it that the last mile isn't a problem, and the problem right now is supply?
Sounds crazy, but I suspect this is exactly the explanation for the gap between 'distributed' and 'in arms'...we also hear that there are reserves at the companies, but the fed government wasn't giving them a schedule at to where and how much to ship...
If so, that CAN be improved.
In an email I received today, note from Elrich ....
County Prepares to Move to Phase 1B COVID-19 Vaccine Schedule, But More Vaccines Needed to Meet Demand; Those 75 and Older Can Preregister
maryland health has been delivered 722,625 doses and the state has vaccinated 314,861. they're also likely most every day getting more vaccine in, like 2+x as many daily, than they're getting into arms.
Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus
You don't know that. Full stop.
Know how I know this? Easy. Tell me: what is the bottleneck in producing a finished vaccine dose in America for Pfizer? It's always something in mass production.
The glass? Needles? Labels? On site refrigeration? Filling heads? The liquid dose itself?
You. Don't. Know.
It can EASILY be something stupid like glass vials keeping production down.
Widgets.
And the bottleneck for Pfizer can easily be entirely different from Moderna's.
Edit to add: I have a new Whiskey coming out this year. Do you know what's delayed it by 3 months? The stupid little tamper proof cap on the bottle, called a capsule...manufacturer is unexpectedly backlogged. It happens. And it's rarely the same component that gets in the way of a new release. Sometimes it's the glass. Sometimes it's the label. Sometimes its the box.
Once we had a two month delay because they couldn't get the proper color ink needed for our boxes. Their supplier had unexpectedly stocked out.
Last edited by a fan on Fri Jan 22, 2021 8:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.