i think any one person could argue both sides and who would win? what's the end game? and every country is different, so as you're only running the scenario once, how do you make a baseline?Typical Lax Dad wrote: ↑Thu Dec 17, 2020 9:20 pmIf you can’t compare apples to apples, not sure of the value. My layman’s logic says any number calculated should be adjusted upwards because people haven’t been as mobile this year. If we were operating under these guidelines with no virus, I would think deaths would go down. Less out and about and less contact between humans would lead me to believe we would have less deaths. But someone could argue the opposite.wgdsr wrote: ↑Thu Dec 17, 2020 9:02 pmi'm not sure anyone will tackle that with a consensus behind them. surely, some will try and give cross-country comparisons.Typical Lax Dad wrote: ↑Thu Dec 17, 2020 8:35 pmDo you know if excess deaths or expected deaths are adjusted to account for lack of mobility and shut downs given COVID?wgdsr wrote: ↑Thu Dec 17, 2020 7:39 pmi doubt it, maybe vitamin d? we're our own animal and too late now, anyway. get the vaxx. whaddaya got to lose?Typical Lax Dad wrote: ↑Thu Dec 17, 2020 7:30 pmCan we learn anything at all from them?wgdsr wrote: ↑Thu Dec 17, 2020 7:16 pmwe don't have their vitamin d levels or health and probably not their social distancing discipline. not to mention we don't really share the homogeneity of their anglo-saxon lineage. i'm sure the epidemiologists will sort it all out.Typical Lax Dad wrote: ↑Thu Dec 17, 2020 7:05 pmWe should do what Sweden did.wgdsr wrote: ↑Thu Dec 17, 2020 6:57 pm we'll see when all the excess deaths come up what the final tally is for 2020. for the countries that keep them, anyway.
sweden looks like they'll finish my best guess at around 95,275 total deaths. better if they can control this recent surge, worse of course if it gets worse. but we're only talking about 4 weeks of the year.
sweden had a significant drop both last year and in the months leading up to covid, so their run rate 2015-2018 of 91,500 dropped to 90,960 for 2015-19 as the 2019 number was 2700+ (3%) lower than 15-18. if they finish around 95,275, that'll be 4.1% above the 2015-2018 time frame, and 4.7% above 2015-2019. however, the combined years of 2019 and 2020 will be at an average of 92,020, or within shouting distance of those cumulative time frames after the down year in 2019.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/525 ... of-deaths/
https://www.statista.com/statistics/111 ... -per-week/
https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistic ... ious_years
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistic ... ics&stable
https://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nu ... k3&lang=en
that would all-in-all be a pretty good result compared to a lot of countries, obviously. and the other scandanavian countries didn't see a similar dip (evidently a light flu season and year for sweden) in 2019. any of them may see a bump themselves, but i don't think much more than 1 or 2 %. norway was running about 2.2% up after week 40 on excess mortality (ec.europa.eu link above).
https://www.news-medical.net/news/20201 ... demic.aspx
accepted will likely be from each nation's health authority and the euromomos and eurostats of the world the excess deaths and expected deaths vs "normal" years and trends.
and what kings say.
fewer car crashes and pneumonia, more heart attacks, cancer and other diseases that advance for lack of updated healthcare, maybe crime. good luck. im sure peeps will do it though, and give weighted multivariate analysis with a dart's toss. model it.