All things CoronaVirus

[a fan]

Don't shoot the messenger here....first time I have seen flu numbers thus far. This account has built a Google Doc, based on CDC numbers for the past few years by week. Interesting to see flu numbers where they are this year, and by comparable weeks.

What do you conclude from this?

I have no conclusion as of the moment. I would start by saying we either have a very-very low influenza like issue thus far (although we were told it started earlier this year), and that if mask wearing is limiting these flu like cases, then that also means it is not limiting CV-19 b/c of the high case rate. Just interesting, not nit picking.

You?

My sense, if the standard flu has lower, like really low, compared to other years, it would seem that the social distancing, hand washing and mask wearing has a positive impact.

Yep. The post mortem will take years, so lets see what the science says.

My wife and I get sick at least twice a year-----cold, flu, something.

So far? Nothing. No, that's not scientific proof.....but it stands to reason that since I have been in one single building since March, save my home and work....and that I have ONLY been within six feet of my immediate family? It's much, much harder to pick up communicable disease.

[Typical Lax Dad]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/11/europe/e ... index.html

Maybe the governments should realize the answer is to do nothing. Let the people sort it out.

[jhu72]

Just had a quick discussion with my wife, working from home. She is on a conference call discussing the first allotment of vaccine, to be delivered in the near future. Her organization covers MD,DC and VA. They finally have the federal allotment numbers and it looks like Maryland is getting the short end of the stick, proportional to population, of the 3, Maryland fairs the least well it appears. Her organization to cover all three states looks like they will get something on the order of 900 dose sets, looks like 70% going to Virginia and DC. That won't cover all of their clinical staff either in Maryland or Virginia. The State of Maryland is prioritizing long term care facilities, which makes sense. The distribution goes from the feds, to state health departments, then the state distributes to provider organizations. She is hoping to get her vaccine next week, but will probably have to beg one of the hospitals where she has admitting privileges.

[wgdsr]

Australia was banking on Queensland. They now probably stand in line, competing for other vaccines meeting western expectations. Perfect target for licensing from Pfizer, Moderna.

our opt in for moderna starts with fda approval. 400 million with 100 million tranche options. moderna is a week behind pfizer.

Only number I have seen for Moderna is 100 M initial, nothing additional guaranteed. Same as Pfizer. Where you getting the 400 million?

https://www.bloombergquint.com/coronavi ... alls-short

-- so that is news to me. I did not see a delivery date for the 400M additional. I think both 100's are for guaranteed spring delivery. I think all Moderna is saying is they will find a way, which I believe. I think Pfizer can also find a way. The smart move by the government, assuming Moderna works out in trials, is to evenly split the order 300 M each (1 +2) with the 2 delivered in summer by both parties. Again assuming J&J is too late.

as i alluded to several days ago, manufacturing a key sticking point for the mrna's. moderna as they're just a biotech, and pfizer as even a vertically integrated company, they've resisted outside help and have run into material problems in acquiring. moderna may have some of those same problems with their partners, we'll see. however, i expect if some of those answers can be guessed positively, we'll take our large swath (our all of it) with moderna, and try to help them do it.
https://www.ft.com/content/3c21ae81-350 ... b67458a0ca (you may only be able to read this once)
https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspecu ... c9eda65c77

we actually have been negotiating with pfizer from the jump of interim results. they have driven the hardest bargain throughout. their secondary offer according to azar never had any delivery protections:
https://www.npr.org/sections/health-sho ... 19-vaccine
and the original contract shows what a hard bargain they drove in the summer, without any real results to go by:
https://www.npr.org/sections/health-sho ... rotections
here's the contract:
https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/pfizer-tdl.pdf

no doubt the admin will continue to throw weight around regarding the defense production act. and biden's will continue or pick up the pieces.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... r-vaccines
hopefully, negotiations remain positive with pfizer and not contentious. given how pfizer has been able to drive a hard bargain and retained rights (and we now have competing messages on their "partnership"), i suspect it also could get messy if they don't work something out where the u.s. is helping them boost production and pfizer accepts.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... r-vaccines.

we have moderna as a 400 million dose option. we have dibs. my guess is it's about how much and how fast they can boost @ u.s. production facilities. their target production of 500m to 1 billion for 2021 may go higher than top end estimates if all goes well and i would expect announcements shortly after their approval next week.

i also expect there will continue to be setbacks. in capacity, trial results and timing.

[wgdsr]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/11/europe/e ... index.html

Maybe the governments should realize the answer is to do nothing. Let the people sort it out.

thanks. i miss those daily briefings on how we were doing versus europe, good to get an update.

maybe germany and co. should try masks like us. they're slacking.

[Typical Lax Dad]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/11/europe/e ... index.html

Maybe the governments should realize the answer is to do nothing. Let the people sort it out.

thanks. i miss those daily briefings on how we were doing versus europe, good to get an update.

maybe germany and co. should try masks like us. they're slacking.

No mask is better. Those European countries didn’t ease up enough. There is a point were you relax mitigation efforts enough and things get better. It is counterintuitive.

[wgdsr]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/11/europe/e ... index.html

Maybe the governments should realize the answer is to do nothing. Let the people sort it out.

thanks. i miss those daily briefings on how we were doing versus europe, good to get an update.

maybe germany and co. should try masks like us. they're slacking.

No mask is better.

then they should pick it up! they got cocky.

edit: not biting on your edit! at least i don't think i will.

[Typical Lax Dad]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/11/europe/e ... index.html

Maybe the governments should realize the answer is to do nothing. Let the people sort it out.

thanks. i miss those daily briefings on how we were doing versus europe, good to get an update.

maybe germany and co. should try masks like us. they're slacking.

No mask is better.

then they should pick it up! they got cocky.

Missed my edit

[wgdsr]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/11/europe/e ... index.html

Maybe the governments should realize the answer is to do nothing. Let the people sort it out.

thanks. i miss those daily briefings on how we were doing versus europe, good to get an update.

maybe germany and co. should try masks like us. they're slacking.

No mask is better.

then they should pick it up! they got cocky.

Missed my edit

already edited for your edit.

[a fan]

Show of hands: anyone left who thinks that our scientists are calling the shots with no political interference during this pandemic?

White House orders FDA chief to authorize Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine Friday or submit his resignation


...and this move should be a BIG help in convincing anti-vaxxers that the Pfizer vaccine is safe.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2 ... GvkxiiGMWs

[wgdsr]

Show of hands: anyone left who thinks that our scientists are calling the shots with no political interference during this pandemic?

White House orders FDA chief to authorize Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine Friday or submit his resignation


...and this move should be a BIG help in convincing anti-vaxxers that the Pfizer vaccine is safe.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2 ... GvkxiiGMWs

while nothing would surprise me, hahn denies that characterization from anonymous sources
https://www.nbcboston.com/news/business ... s/2255265/

take it. whaddaya got to lose?

[a fan]

Show of hands: anyone left who thinks that our scientists are calling the shots with no political interference during this pandemic?

White House orders FDA chief to authorize Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine Friday or submit his resignation


...and this move should be a BIG help in convincing anti-vaxxers that the Pfizer vaccine is safe.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2 ... GvkxiiGMWs

while nothing would surprise me, hahn denies that characterization from anonymous sources
https://www.nbcboston.com/news/business ... s/2255265/

That's fine to believe the denial.

What we cannot dismiss, is that there is OBVIOUSLY political pressure being applied to these scientists. And in the end, the politicians call the shots.

The scientists are not in charge here. I would think that this is obvious, but apparently it's not.....

[wgdsr]

Show of hands: anyone left who thinks that our scientists are calling the shots with no political interference during this pandemic?

White House orders FDA chief to authorize Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine Friday or submit his resignation


...and this move should be a BIG help in convincing anti-vaxxers that the Pfizer vaccine is safe.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2 ... GvkxiiGMWs

while nothing would surprise me, hahn denies that characterization from anonymous sources
https://www.nbcboston.com/news/business ... s/2255265/

That's fine to believe the denial.

What we cannot dismiss, is that there is OBVIOUSLY political pressure being applied to these scientists. And in the end, the politicians call the shots.

The scientists are not in charge here. I would think that this is obvious, but apparently it's not.....

hahn was pulled in a week ago. i suspect there was a get-it-out-there directive. he seems to be doing a good job holding his ground. the white house isn't happy we didn't get approval on november 2.

there's obviously political pressure, fo sho. as far as being in charge... given how pi$$ed donald is, i'm surprised you say it's obvious. but maybe you know more than me about it.

[a fan]

there's obviously political pressure, fo sho. as far as being in charge... given how pi$$ed donald is, i'm surprised you say it's obvious. but maybe you know more than me about it.

Can you show me an organizational chart that show that Trump works for Fauci?

Or an organizational chart that shows that any of our Governor's report to any scientist you can think of?

So yes, obvious.

[wgdsr]

there's obviously political pressure, fo sho. as far as being in charge... given how pi$$ed donald is, i'm surprised you say it's obvious. but maybe you know more than me about it.

Can you show me an organizational chart that show that Trump works for Fauci?

Or an organizational chart that shows that any of our Governor's report to any scientist you can think of?

So yes, obvious.

so at first i thought there was a really good chance you were being condescending to me for some reason. and i guess this means i should now be 100% sure that you were? not sure why or where that's coming from, but hey! everybody's on edge. it's a pandemic.

[MDlaxfan76]

...bad news on the vaccine front. Sanofi has announced a delay of 6 months in getting product through clinical trials. Their vaccine is currently not effective for patients over 50 YO. They are now a year away (if ever). The University of Queensland in Australia has canceled their program after a failure in clinical trials. Astrazeneca's product is significantly less effective that the competition's, so they intend to mix it with the Russian offering and see what that does. Nothing new on the J&J front. Near term it looks like Pfizer, Moderna and perhaps J&J is all there will be and perhaps some darker horse.

If I were Biden, I would go the defense production act route, force licensing and get others beside Pfizer and Moderna producing these vaccines. I am assuming Moderna will do as well as Pfizer in the coming weeks.

Two and likely a third Vaccine is A MILLION times better than NONE. Not bad news, just part of the process. Work on your framing.

Joe

Vaccines that work well and are safe are good news. 72 and everyone else thinks so and has said so. We're ALL enthusiastic about that news.

Vaccines not working, programs being cancelled, are bad news...not two ways about it.

Now, the problem is that the US bet on the portfolio broadly instead of securing supply from those that proved successful. That strategy may or may not have been rational, but the result is that supply of effective vaccines will be much more limited than if the portfolio had been successful across the board...meaning it will take much longer to get enough people in the US (and the world) vaccinated to actually crush the virus spread.

That's BAD NEWS.
Unequivocally.

So, 72 throws out a possible policy move that Biden could take that could address this issue, perhaps...that's a constructive response, not curling up in the fetal position in the face of BAD NEWS.

Perhaps you should be less concerned with and critical of how others are 'framing' and instead constructively deal with the actual issues being discussed yourself?

MD,

"So, 72 throws out a possible policy move that Biden could take that could address this issue, perhaps...that's a constructive response, not curling up in the fetal position in the face of BAD NEWS."

This part of the post is actually fine, that's a positive response. The rest of it is just pure negativity, in the vain of the majority of his posts, thinly disguised as worry or concern. That's all I'm getting at. When you say something enough you start to believe it, the constant negativity on this thread is alarming. Being constantly positive DOES NOT mean I'm burying my head in the sand. You can find the positive in anything. JHU CANNOT, unless it comes at the expense of blasting DJT. That's a fact, backed up by many posts. That's my point.

Joe

Joe, I don't think my post accused you of anything. Right?

It simply disagreed with your objection to '72's post, pointing out that of course we're ALL hugely relieved, happy, etc that there are ANY vaccines that are going to work...while then addressing the most recent NEWS that is not good, it's bad.

This is the reality, there's both good news and bad news...the question then is to how best to deal with it...which is what '72's post was actually about. First recognizing the challenge, then suggesting a constructive solution.

You seem more inflamed by an animosity at '72 and/or your perception that people are 'negative' about the virus... killing so many people, causing such economic and social costs...than you are actually responding to the content of a specific post.

I suggest you chill a bit and not get so adversarial unless someone picks a fight with you personally.

BTW, I have to remind myself to do this from time to time as I too get testy...

Fair enough in regards to the last part, just know that for me personally and others who don't share the same opinions of you regarding the virus DO NOT TAKE IT LIGHTLY. You don't have to be negative about a global pandemic to take it seriously. My point is many on this thread take that negativity to the point were they begin to lose rationality or a sense of perspective. Despite that, there are about a host of zillion other serious issues occurring in the world, THAT DO NOT STOP due to a Global Pandemic. My point is life goes on, all the hardship from this pandemic notwithstanding. I tell myself that everyday and you know what, its refreshing. Not in the sense that I downplay this virus, but I don't believe it exists as the only thing on earth that's happening right now. Life doesn't stop for anything...

Joe

Well, let's just say that you've made that opinion known many dozens of times, pretty much identically.

We get it. You take it seriously, not lightly.
And you think others are too negative in how they express their views that seem contrary to your 'life goes on' way of thinking. You think the other posters are irrational and have lost a sense of perspective...fine, we get it, that's your opinion. But you're not actually persuading anyone by attacking them for their 'negativity'.

BTW, we all know and agree that there are other issues in the world...but this is the thread on the virus, so please do expect that the discussion will be addressing the virus, good news, bad news, political responses, social responses, etc. Expect a lot of that to be 'negative' because...the virus kills.

If it bothers you to read negative things, one suggestion would be to avoid this thread.

[MDlaxfan76]

there's obviously political pressure, fo sho. as far as being in charge... given how pi$$ed donald is, i'm surprised you say it's obvious. but maybe you know more than me about it.

Can you show me an organizational chart that show that Trump works for Fauci?

Or an organizational chart that shows that any of our Governor's report to any scientist you can think of?

So yes, obvious.

so at first i thought there was a really good chance you were being condescending to me for some reason. and i guess this means i should now be 100% sure that you were? not sure why or where that's coming from, but hey! everybody's on edge. it's a pandemic.

Always good to remember this and cut each other some extra slack.

I suspect a fan read you as 'flippant' and 'argumentative' as much as you read him as 'condescending'.

I know I'm on edge a heck of a lot more than I want to be...

[wgdsr]

there's obviously political pressure, fo sho. as far as being in charge... given how pi$$ed donald is, i'm surprised you say it's obvious. but maybe you know more than me about it.

Can you show me an organizational chart that show that Trump works for Fauci?

Or an organizational chart that shows that any of our Governor's report to any scientist you can think of?

So yes, obvious.

so at first i thought there was a really good chance you were being condescending to me for some reason. and i guess this means i should now be 100% sure that you were? not sure why or where that's coming from, but hey! everybody's on edge. it's a pandemic.

Always good to remember this and cut each other some extra slack.

I suspect a fan read you as 'flippant' and 'argumentative' as much as you read him as 'condescending'.

I know I'm on edge a heck of a lot more than I want to be...

i try not to draw first blood and often don't succeed. not sure where flippant and argumentative is.

i said it wouldn't surprise me, and quoted hahn as saying it was an untrue characterization of the convo. pretty agreeable and bland, with new info.

[MDlaxfan76]

there's obviously political pressure, fo sho. as far as being in charge... given how pi$$ed donald is, i'm surprised you say it's obvious. but maybe you know more than me about it.

Can you show me an organizational chart that show that Trump works for Fauci?

Or an organizational chart that shows that any of our Governor's report to any scientist you can think of?

So yes, obvious.

so at first i thought there was a really good chance you were being condescending to me for some reason. and i guess this means i should now be 100% sure that you were? not sure why or where that's coming from, but hey! everybody's on edge. it's a pandemic.

Always good to remember this and cut each other some extra slack.

I suspect a fan read you as 'flippant' and 'argumentative' as much as you read him as 'condescending'.

I know I'm on edge a heck of a lot more than I want to be...

i try not to draw first blood and often don't succeed. not sure where flippant and argumentative is.

i said it wouldn't surprise me, and quoted hahn as saying it was an untrue characterization of the convo. pretty agreeable and bland, with new info.

As I said, (agreeing with your point), we should all cut others a little extra slack, not read into anyone's comments more than maybe they're just a little testy, a little stressed.

I can see 'flippant' and 'argumentative' frequently in your posts, including that exchange with a fan, however I'm rarely sure whether that's your intention or you just like to debate...discuss...like I do!

I tend to agree that it is "obvious" that there's been a ton of political pressure out of the White House onto the scientists, much of it quite unhelpful, and I'm not really sure there's much reason to debate that reality...however, you seem to want to debate it...but again, that could be a mistaken read...

[jhu72]

Show of hands: anyone left who thinks that our scientists are calling the shots with no political interference during this pandemic?

White House orders FDA chief to authorize Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine Friday or submit his resignation


...and this move should be a BIG help in convincing anti-vaxxers that the Pfizer vaccine is safe.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2 ... GvkxiiGMWs

... someone with a tiny tiny dick, pi**ing in all the corners. Trying to prove his relevance.