jhu72 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 11, 2020 1:19 pm
wgdsr wrote: ↑Fri Dec 11, 2020 1:01 pm
jhu72 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 11, 2020 12:50 pm
wgdsr wrote: ↑Fri Dec 11, 2020 12:21 pm
jhu72 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 11, 2020 12:10 pm
Australia was banking on Queensland. They now probably stand in line, competing for other vaccines meeting western expectations. Perfect target for licensing from Pfizer, Moderna.
our opt in for moderna starts with fda approval. 400 million with 100 million tranche options. moderna is a week behind pfizer.
Only number I have seen for Moderna is 100 M initial, nothing additional guaranteed. Same as Pfizer. Where you getting the 400 million?
https://www.bloombergquint.com/coronavi ... alls-short
-- so that is news to me. I did not see a delivery date for the 400M additional. I think both 100's are for guaranteed spring delivery. I think all Moderna is saying is they will find a way, which I believe. I think Pfizer can also find a way. The smart move by the government, assuming Moderna works out in trials, is to evenly split the order 300 M each (1 +2) with the 2 delivered in summer by both parties. Again assuming J&J is too late.
as i alluded to several days ago, manufacturing a key sticking point for the mrna's. moderna as they're just a biotech, and pfizer as even a vertically integrated company, they've resisted outside help and have run into material problems in acquiring. moderna may have some of those same problems with their partners, we'll see. however, i expect if some of those answers can be guessed positively, we'll take our large swath (our all of it) with moderna, and try to help them do it.
https://www.ft.com/content/3c21ae81-350 ... b67458a0ca (you may only be able to read this once)
https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspecu ... c9eda65c77
we actually have been negotiating with pfizer from the jump of interim results. they have driven the hardest bargain throughout. their secondary offer according to azar never had any delivery protections:
https://www.npr.org/sections/health-sho ... 19-vaccine
and the original contract shows what a hard bargain they drove in the summer, without any real results to go by:
https://www.npr.org/sections/health-sho ... rotections
here's the contract:
https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/pfizer-tdl.pdf
no doubt the admin will continue to throw weight around regarding the defense production act. and biden's will continue or pick up the pieces.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... r-vaccines
hopefully, negotiations remain positive with pfizer and not contentious. given how pfizer has been able to drive a hard bargain and retained rights (and we now have competing messages on their "partnership"), i suspect it also could get messy if they don't work something out where the u.s. is helping them boost production and pfizer accepts.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... r-vaccines.
we have moderna as a 400 million dose option. we have dibs. my guess is it's about how much and how fast they can boost @ u.s. production facilities. their target production of 500m to 1 billion for 2021 may go higher than top end estimates if all goes well and i would expect announcements shortly after their approval next week.
i also expect there will continue to be setbacks. in capacity, trial results and timing.