All things CoronaVirus

[wgdsr]

or maybe misinformation and framing is the issue?

as an example, what you got out of it was "Vaccines not working, programs being cancelled, are bad news...not two ways about it."

which vaccines are now "not working" or were "cancelled" in the last 24 hours that affect the united states? one trial was postponed. that affects us for depth in like june or july if everyone else's not yet approved prove to be ineffective. but they were way behind everyone else in our portfolio. postponement had nothing to do with whether their vaccine was effective, as 72 said. but again, they were last in line by months anyway.

If 72 was incorrect in his list of the NEWS, that's one thing, however, there's really no question that it's BAD when a vaccine in the portfolio of possibles fails, more so when several such do, whether because results come in disappointingly or are otherwise cancelled or postponed.

This is a race against the virus, the drive to have enough people vaccinated as swiftly as possible. Obviously.

Again, his suggestion in response to this NEWS was constructive, IMO.

I think people are overly sensitive to news that isn't "framed" in the most optimistic way, but rather presented realistically so as to suggest the need to address such reality.

ok... without looking, what's your take on azn? what has changed as far as we're concerned with them in last 24 hours?
what about sanofi? what do you take from "their vaccine is
currently not effective for patients over 50 years old"?

what about queensland? what kind of disaster is that for us?

no peeking. what would you assume or take out of it?

[MDlaxfan76]

or maybe misinformation and framing is the issue?

as an example, what you got out of it was "Vaccines not working, programs being cancelled, are bad news...not two ways about it."

which vaccines are now "not working" or were "cancelled" in the last 24 hours that affect the united states? one trial was postponed. that affects us for depth in like june or july if everyone else's not yet approved prove to be ineffective. but they were way behind everyone else in our portfolio. postponement had nothing to do with whether their vaccine was effective, as 72 said. but again, they were last in line by months anyway.

There is also the issue of what is the motivation to continue for a company who is going to be a year behind, in the western markets.

did we figure out how long protection lasts for any of these, is that what you mean -- that everyone they can market to will be vaccinated by 3rd quarter and then best one(s) will then do it annually? that's great news!
a potentially recurring 7.8 billion person market for effective vaccines sounds like holding trials for 30k people when the vaccine has already been developed makes sense. i'll bet they do based on your projection.

If I'm parsing correctly your meaning, that sounds like a good reason to continue if there's some sound promise that other vaccine approaches may achieve benefits the initial ones do not...eg time of immunity, better for different ages, etc.

Did I read your meaning correctly?

Or did I swing and miss?

[MDlaxfan76]

or maybe misinformation and framing is the issue?

as an example, what you got out of it was "Vaccines not working, programs being cancelled, are bad news...not two ways about it."

which vaccines are now "not working" or were "cancelled" in the last 24 hours that affect the united states? one trial was postponed. that affects us for depth in like june or july if everyone else's not yet approved prove to be ineffective. but they were way behind everyone else in our portfolio. postponement had nothing to do with whether their vaccine was effective, as 72 said. but again, they were last in line by months anyway.

If 72 was incorrect in his list of the NEWS, that's one thing, however, there's really no question that it's BAD when a vaccine in the portfolio of possibles fails, more so when several such do, whether because results come in disappointingly or are otherwise cancelled or postponed.

This is a race against the virus, the drive to have enough people vaccinated as swiftly as possible. Obviously.

Again, his suggestion in response to this NEWS was constructive, IMO.

I think people are overly sensitive to news that isn't "framed" in the most optimistic way, but rather presented realistically so as to suggest the need to address such reality.

ok... without looking, what's your take on azn? what has changed as far as we're concerned with them in last 24 hours?
what about sanofi? what do you take from "their vaccine is
currently not effective for patients over 50 years old"?

what about queensland? what kind of disaster is that for us?

no peeking. what would you assume or take out of it?

Not a darn thing, you guys are way more up to speed than I am.

I'm patiently waiting for those I trust to be expert to work through these issues...in the meantime I'll 'trust' you guys to share any greater expertise or timely info than I have.

I just think we can tone down the attacks at one another, share info we have, share opinions about going forward, explaining why...

[youthathletics]

Don't shoot the messenger here....first time I have seen flu numbers thus far. This account has built a Google Doc, based on CDC numbers for the past few years by week. Interesting to see flu numbers where they are this year, and by comparable weeks.

[a fan]

Don't shoot the messenger here....first time I have seen flu numbers thus far. This account has built a Google Doc, based on CDC numbers for the past few years by week. Interesting to see flu numbers where they are this year, and by comparable weeks.

What do you conclude from this?

[jhu72]

or maybe misinformation and framing is the issue?

as an example, what you got out of it was "Vaccines not working, programs being cancelled, are bad news...not two ways about it."

which vaccines are now "not working" or were "cancelled" in the last 24 hours that affect the united states? one trial was postponed. that affects us for depth in like june or july if everyone else's not yet approved prove to be ineffective. but they were way behind everyone else in our portfolio. postponement had nothing to do with whether their vaccine was effective, as 72 said. but again, they were last in line by months anyway.

There is also the issue of what is the motivation to continue for a company who is going to be a year behind, in the western markets.

did we figure out how long protection lasts for any of these, is that what you mean -- that everyone they can market to will be vaccinated by 3rd quarter and then best one(s) will then do it annually? that's great news!
a potentially recurring 7.8 billion person market for effective vaccines sounds like holding trials for 30k people when the vaccine has already been developed makes sense. i'll bet they do based on your projection.

I don't (a priori) expect everyone in the US to be vaccinated in 2020, certainly not in the world. Still lots of vaccine needed. I would however expect the US to have cut all the deals it needs for our population in first half of 2020, probably first quarter of 2020. So that takes the US market off the table, all things being equal. The bar is set at 95% effective and 2 doses, presumably very safe. Anyone only meeting that, a year from now, is bringing nothing to the US market. The real question is, how long is it effective. Do we have to go through this like Flu vaccine, or does a vaccination last multiple years? I did a calculation months ago when Moderna published some preliminary half-life data that indicated, immunity would last something like 1.5 to 2 years. So that is a working best guess at this point. I also suspect that is a very conservative estimate. They did not make a claim at that time. I have not looked at anything for Pfizer, nor heard any claim.

The reality is, all of the US pie is likely to be consumed by Pfizer and Moderna, with J&J thrown in if they can get to demonstrable equivalent product by say late February, March at the very latest. They are also likely to win the bulk of the western nations. If frequent boosters are required then that will change the game in later rounds, but I would think it still leaves Pfizer and Moderna (perhaps J&J) in the driver seat.

Recall that with the polio vaccine, Salk won the race, but in the end it was Sabin winning long term with a better delivery method a few years later.

Thinking about the quantity problem, we are short at least 400 M initial doses (assume J&J doesn't work out or is not timely). The two manufacturers may be able to solve that themselves by cutting their own production deals with licensing. The US government can solve it if the two manufacturers can't do it in a timely fashion. Such that everyone will be vaccinated by years end (next). Ideally you would like to be there by mid next year, but that is probably not in the cards.

[holmes435]

In 2020, AP photographers captured a world in distress

Some amazing, striking, and heartbreaking photos of 2020. Didn't know what thread to put it in, but COVID has affected virtually everything this year, so I figured this was as good a place as any. Please take 10-15 minutes out of your day to browse.

[jhu72]

Australia was banking on Queensland. They now probably stand in line, competing for other vaccines meeting western expectations. Perfect target for licensing from Pfizer, Moderna.

[youthathletics]

Don't shoot the messenger here....first time I have seen flu numbers thus far. This account has built a Google Doc, based on CDC numbers for the past few years by week. Interesting to see flu numbers where they are this year, and by comparable weeks.

What do you conclude from this?

I have no conclusion as of the moment. I would start by saying we either have a very-very low influenza like issue thus far (although we were told it started earlier this year), and that if mask wearing is limiting these flu like cases, then that also means it is not limiting CV-19 b/c of the high case rate. Just interesting, not nit picking.

You?

[wgdsr]

or maybe misinformation and framing is the issue?

as an example, what you got out of it was "Vaccines not working, programs being cancelled, are bad news...not two ways about it."

which vaccines are now "not working" or were "cancelled" in the last 24 hours that affect the united states? one trial was postponed. that affects us for depth in like june or july if everyone else's not yet approved prove to be ineffective. but they were way behind everyone else in our portfolio. postponement had nothing to do with whether their vaccine was effective, as 72 said. but again, they were last in line by months anyway.

If 72 was incorrect in his list of the NEWS, that's one thing, however, there's really no question that it's BAD when a vaccine in the portfolio of possibles fails, more so when several such do, whether because results come in disappointingly or are otherwise cancelled or postponed.

This is a race against the virus, the drive to have enough people vaccinated as swiftly as possible. Obviously.

Again, his suggestion in response to this NEWS was constructive, IMO.

I think people are overly sensitive to news that isn't "framed" in the most optimistic way, but rather presented realistically so as to suggest the need to address such reality.

ok... without looking, what's your take on azn? what has changed as far as we're concerned with them in last 24 hours?
what about sanofi? what do you take from "their vaccine is
currently not effective for patients over 50 years old"?

what about queensland? what kind of disaster is that for us?

no peeking. what would you assume or take out of it?

Not a darn thing, you guys are way more up to speed than I am.

I'm patiently waiting for those I trust to be expert to work through these issues...in the meantime I'll 'trust' you guys to share any greater expertise or timely info than I have.

I just think we can tone down the attacks at one another, share info we have, share opinions about going forward, explaining why...

how about this... sanofi, who hadn't even initiated phase 3 trials yet, completely botched their manufacturing. now, we're in a pandemic, yada yada, and maybe this alone should disqualify them from being a partner long term bc we're #1and only work with winners and every other country can go pound sand. not my take, but if someone felt that way, fine. their "vaccine" was not ineffective with 50 year olds, their diluted vaccine was.
https://www.statnews.com/2020/12/11/san ... 9-vaccine/
anyway, that's the real news there.

queensland? i have no idea what that's about or why we care. maybe 72 knows. silver lining, some peeps maybe in australia that thought they had aids are relieved today:
https://www.dw.com/en/australia-ends-lo ... a-55900847

he might have missed it bc it was 2 days ago, but there actually was new news on jnj not announced here:
https://www.statnews.com/2020/12/09/joh ... se-in-u-s/

unfortunately bc there are so many cases, their trials will wrap sooner and with 40000 participants instead of 60k. bad news/good news?

azn? nothing's changed. 38,000+ of 50,000 participants still to come. with the results from moderna and pfizer, it's not likely they'll be able to apply successfully south of 30,000 participants to the fda. my guess is that my boys at ihme have the modeling wrong on jan 7 approval. it's likely no earlier than february if all goes well, same as jnj. they have to use that 38k for many other factions (older, minority).

[wgdsr]

Australia was banking on Queensland. They now probably stand in line, competing for other vaccines meeting western expectations. Perfect target for licensing from Pfizer, Moderna.

our opt in for moderna starts with fda approval. 400 million with 100 million tranche options. moderna is a week behind pfizer.

[Typical Lax Dad]

In the meantime..... https://www.wsj.com/articles/gov-andrew ... yURL_share

[a fan]

I'm sure that we'll start seeing fake stories about the vaccine not working/side effects on social media from our buddy, Putin.....

[jhu72]

Australia was banking on Queensland. They now probably stand in line, competing for other vaccines meeting western expectations. Perfect target for licensing from Pfizer, Moderna.

our opt in for moderna starts with fda approval. 400 million with 100 million tranche options. moderna is a week behind pfizer.

Only number I have seen for Moderna is 100 M initial, nothing additional guaranteed. Same as Pfizer. Where you getting the 400 million?

[wgdsr]

Australia was banking on Queensland. They now probably stand in line, competing for other vaccines meeting western expectations. Perfect target for licensing from Pfizer, Moderna.

our opt in for moderna starts with fda approval. 400 million with 100 million tranche options. moderna is a week behind pfizer.

Only number I have seen for Moderna is 100 M initial, nothing additional guaranteed. Same as Pfizer. Where you getting the 400 million?

https://www.bloombergquint.com/coronavi ... alls-short

[foreverlax]

Don't shoot the messenger here....first time I have seen flu numbers thus far. This account has built a Google Doc, based on CDC numbers for the past few years by week. Interesting to see flu numbers where they are this year, and by comparable weeks.

What do you conclude from this?

I have no conclusion as of the moment. I would start by saying we either have a very-very low influenza like issue thus far (although we were told it started earlier this year), and that if mask wearing is limiting these flu like cases, then that also means it is not limiting CV-19 b/c of the high case rate. Just interesting, not nit picking.

You?

My sense, if the standard flu has lower, like really low, compared to other years, it would seem that the social distancing, hand washing and mask wearing has a positive impact.

[JoeMauer89]

...bad news on the vaccine front. Sanofi has announced a delay of 6 months in getting product through clinical trials. Their vaccine is currently not effective for patients over 50 YO. They are now a year away (if ever). The University of Queensland in Australia has canceled their program after a failure in clinical trials. Astrazeneca's product is significantly less effective that the competition's, so they intend to mix it with the Russian offering and see what that does. Nothing new on the J&J front. Near term it looks like Pfizer, Moderna and perhaps J&J is all there will be and perhaps some darker horse.

If I were Biden, I would go the defense production act route, force licensing and get others beside Pfizer and Moderna producing these vaccines. I am assuming Moderna will do as well as Pfizer in the coming weeks.

Two and likely a third Vaccine is A MILLION times better than NONE. Not bad news, just part of the process. Work on your framing.

Joe

Vaccines that work well and are safe are good news. 72 and everyone else thinks so and has said so. We're ALL enthusiastic about that news.

Vaccines not working, programs being cancelled, are bad news...not two ways about it.

Now, the problem is that the US bet on the portfolio broadly instead of securing supply from those that proved successful. That strategy may or may not have been rational, but the result is that supply of effective vaccines will be much more limited than if the portfolio had been successful across the board...meaning it will take much longer to get enough people in the US (and the world) vaccinated to actually crush the virus spread.

That's BAD NEWS.
Unequivocally.

So, 72 throws out a possible policy move that Biden could take that could address this issue, perhaps...that's a constructive response, not curling up in the fetal position in the face of BAD NEWS.

Perhaps you should be less concerned with and critical of how others are 'framing' and instead constructively deal with the actual issues being discussed yourself?

MD,

"So, 72 throws out a possible policy move that Biden could take that could address this issue, perhaps...that's a constructive response, not curling up in the fetal position in the face of BAD NEWS."

This part of the post is actually fine, that's a positive response. The rest of it is just pure negativity, in the vain of the majority of his posts, thinly disguised as worry or concern. That's all I'm getting at. When you say something enough you start to believe it, the constant negativity on this thread is alarming. Being constantly positive DOES NOT mean I'm burying my head in the sand. You can find the positive in anything. JHU CANNOT, unless it comes at the expense of blasting DJT. That's a fact, backed up by many posts. That's my point.

Joe

Joe, I don't think my post accused you of anything. Right?

It simply disagreed with your objection to '72's post, pointing out that of course we're ALL hugely relieved, happy, etc that there are ANY vaccines that are going to work...while then addressing the most recent NEWS that is not good, it's bad.

This is the reality, there's both good news and bad news...the question then is to how best to deal with it...which is what '72's post was actually about. First recognizing the challenge, then suggesting a constructive solution.

You seem more inflamed by an animosity at '72 and/or your perception that people are 'negative' about the virus... killing so many people, causing such economic and social costs...than you are actually responding to the content of a specific post.

I suggest you chill a bit and not get so adversarial unless someone picks a fight with you personally.

BTW, I have to remind myself to do this from time to time as I too get testy...

Fair enough in regards to the last part, just know that for me personally and others who don't share the same opinions of you regarding the virus DO NOT TAKE IT LIGHTLY. You don't have to be negative about a global pandemic to take it seriously. My point is many on this thread take that negativity to the point were they begin to lose rationality or a sense of perspective. Despite that, there are about a host of zillion other serious issues occurring in the world, THAT DO NOT STOP due to a Global Pandemic. My point is life goes on, all the hardship from this pandemic notwithstanding. I tell myself that everyday and you know what, its refreshing. Not in the sense that I downplay this virus, but I don't believe it exists as the only thing on earth that's happening right now. Life doesn't stop for anything...

Joe

[youthathletics]

Don't shoot the messenger here....first time I have seen flu numbers thus far. This account has built a Google Doc, based on CDC numbers for the past few years by week. Interesting to see flu numbers where they are this year, and by comparable weeks.

What do you conclude from this?

I have no conclusion as of the moment. I would start by saying we either have a very-very low influenza like issue thus far (although we were told it started earlier this year), and that if mask wearing is limiting these flu like cases, then that also means it is not limiting CV-19 b/c of the high case rate. Just interesting, not nit picking.

You?

My sense, if the standard flu has lower, like really low, compared to other years, it would seem that the social distancing, hand washing and mask wearing has a positive impact.

I thought about that as well, but as I talked myself through that logic, I said.....then why is CV-19 rising? IF SD, handwashing, and mask usage is working.

[Typical Lax Dad]

Don't shoot the messenger here....first time I have seen flu numbers thus far. This account has built a Google Doc, based on CDC numbers for the past few years by week. Interesting to see flu numbers where they are this year, and by comparable weeks.

What do you conclude from this?

I have no conclusion as of the moment. I would start by saying we either have a very-very low influenza like issue thus far (although we were told it started earlier this year), and that if mask wearing is limiting these flu like cases, then that also means it is not limiting CV-19 b/c of the high case rate. Just interesting, not nit picking.

You?

My sense, if the standard flu has lower, like really low, compared to other years, it would seem that the social distancing, hand washing and mask wearing has a positive impact.

You mean you don’t get the flu spontaneously? Otherwise, doctors are diagnosing people with the flu as COVID patients to pad the numbers...

[jhu72]

Australia was banking on Queensland. They now probably stand in line, competing for other vaccines meeting western expectations. Perfect target for licensing from Pfizer, Moderna.

our opt in for moderna starts with fda approval. 400 million with 100 million tranche options. moderna is a week behind pfizer.

Only number I have seen for Moderna is 100 M initial, nothing additional guaranteed. Same as Pfizer. Where you getting the 400 million?

https://www.bloombergquint.com/coronavi ... alls-short

-- so that is news to me. I did not see a delivery date for the 400M additional. I think both 100's are for guaranteed spring delivery. I think all Moderna is saying is they will find a way, which I believe. I think Pfizer can also find a way. The smart move by the government, assuming Moderna works out in trials, is to evenly split the order 300 M each (1 +2) with the 2 delivered in summer by both parties. Again assuming J&J is too late.