All things CoronaVirus

[Typical Lax Dad]

mdlax, he is being intentionally misleading. has been for a while. has cited ihme more than once and when new numbers come up or when cnn has done bits on it... those are days he brings it up. with inflated info each time. yesterday... cnn, then inflated, incorrect "scary" numbers. personally, i think it's damaging to low-information people and those they affect just like trump has been...BUT nothing i can do about it.

get used to it. wait... you should be.

When I first read this, I thought the "he" referenced was me, but you mean Joe Biden.

The intentionality is where we apparently differ. You seem certain that Biden has been "intentionally misleading", and I'm far less certain.

On this issue in specific, I would definitely rather our public leaders err to the side of "playing up" the reasons to be concerned and to take action rather than the Trump conscious, admitted choice to "downplay" the reasons to be concerned.

Many of our populace needs to be more concerned, not less. We need the positive actions to slow the spread.

That said, I think you and I would agree that telling the truth, being accurate, admitting error when realized, all build future credibility...and credibility matters in a crisis.

our number was 272.7k dead on nov 2.
the ihme projections, which biden has consciously and explicitly utilized inaccurately for months for effect (often quoting their mask use savings estimates but incorrectly), were:
approx 329k by jan 1 (difference of 51k)
approx 414k by feb 1 (difference of 131k)
approx 470k by mar 1 (difference of less than 200k)

he said let's look at "the facts", likely 250k dead between now and january. not march. not february. not the end of january. not 51k, not 131k, not less than 200k. as i said, he has been doing this religiously including in high profile debates for months. i've pointed it out multiple times (i think exclusively in reply when posts have been made here about the modeling or similar context). no one calls him out on it, so why stop until january?

joe's running on credibility and hopes that influences. it could be a small thing, it could be something else. but it's not anything other than intentionally misleading. falsehood. even for 78 year old joe. he's not the first. take it for whatever you will.

Old Joe is exaggerating! We might be at 215k by January.... not 250k!

[wgdsr]

wgdsr,
as you mentioned you were expecting, IHME is out with those new projected #'s. https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-s ... &tab=trend

538k by April 1 is the median estimate, (438k by Feb 1). Peak avg daily deaths predicted just under 3k as of mid January, but over 2.5k per day by mid December.

They've added a component related to vaccines. Median appears to include a vaccine rollout assumption but there's a small benefit accruing of a 'rapid vaccine rollout'. Biggest differential remains between universal masks and mandates easing.

Obviously this continues to be just a model' with assumptions that can only be validated fully as things play out.

The other key thing readers should understand is that the model shows variances, ranges, to each of the projected #'s that get increasingly wide the further out the projection. Pretty transparent.

for me, just like joe(ha!), their projections have been useful about 4 or 5 weeks out. best call they've made longer term so far has been on late year spike probably based mostly on seasonal. clock's right twice a day or that was an informed call.

it is good to see they have our case numbers cresting at about the same levels europe did, as i was hoping might happen. we'll see. bad news is germany's new projections now have them beating us by april 1. we're no longer projected #1 western world.

[wgdsr]

mdlax, he is being intentionally misleading. has been for a while. has cited ihme more than once and when new numbers come up or when cnn has done bits on it... those are days he brings it up. with inflated info each time. yesterday... cnn, then inflated, incorrect "scary" numbers. personally, i think it's damaging to low-information people and those they affect just like trump has been...BUT nothing i can do about it.

get used to it. wait... you should be.

When I first read this, I thought the "he" referenced was me, but you mean Joe Biden.

The intentionality is where we apparently differ. You seem certain that Biden has been "intentionally misleading", and I'm far less certain.

On this issue in specific, I would definitely rather our public leaders err to the side of "playing up" the reasons to be concerned and to take action rather than the Trump conscious, admitted choice to "downplay" the reasons to be concerned.

Many of our populace needs to be more concerned, not less. We need the positive actions to slow the spread.

That said, I think you and I would agree that telling the truth, being accurate, admitting error when realized, all build future credibility...and credibility matters in a crisis.

our number was 272.7k dead on nov 2.
the ihme projections, which biden has consciously and explicitly utilized inaccurately for months for effect (often quoting their mask use savings estimates but incorrectly), were:
approx 329k by jan 1 (difference of 51k)
approx 414k by feb 1 (difference of 131k)
approx 470k by mar 1 (difference of less than 200k)

he said let's look at "the facts", likely 250k dead between now and january. not march. not february. not the end of january. not 51k, not 131k, not less than 200k. as i said, he has been doing this religiously including in high profile debates for months. i've pointed it out multiple times (i think exclusively in reply when posts have been made here about the modeling or similar context). no one calls him out on it, so why stop until january?

joe's running on credibility and hopes that influences. it could be a small thing, it could be something else. but it's not anything other than intentionally misleading. falsehood. even for 78 year old joe. he's not the first. take it for whatever you will.

Old Joe is exaggerating! We might be at 215k by January.... not 250k!

it's 51k. not 215k. and not 250k. you're in the tank.

[wgdsr]

Just spoke to a close friend who works at a unique site in DC off the potomac river with all scientists...they are all up in arms how the messaging is been sent out. Recently, an email went out that many federal buildings have said they are not opening until JUNE 2021....needless to say, they are furious that the feds are NOT listening to the science.

they shouldn't worry, on day 101 from jan 21 after the mask-ask/mandate, we should be in the all-clear. because science.
son just inquired about summer internship at nih he got bumped from last summer. not holding them again next summer. buckle up and then strap in for a vax.

[Typical Lax Dad]

mdlax, he is being intentionally misleading. has been for a while. has cited ihme more than once and when new numbers come up or when cnn has done bits on it... those are days he brings it up. with inflated info each time. yesterday... cnn, then inflated, incorrect "scary" numbers. personally, i think it's damaging to low-information people and those they affect just like trump has been...BUT nothing i can do about it.

get used to it. wait... you should be.

When I first read this, I thought the "he" referenced was me, but you mean Joe Biden.

The intentionality is where we apparently differ. You seem certain that Biden has been "intentionally misleading", and I'm far less certain.

On this issue in specific, I would definitely rather our public leaders err to the side of "playing up" the reasons to be concerned and to take action rather than the Trump conscious, admitted choice to "downplay" the reasons to be concerned.

Many of our populace needs to be more concerned, not less. We need the positive actions to slow the spread.

That said, I think you and I would agree that telling the truth, being accurate, admitting error when realized, all build future credibility...and credibility matters in a crisis.

our number was 272.7k dead on nov 2.
the ihme projections, which biden has consciously and explicitly utilized inaccurately for months for effect (often quoting their mask use savings estimates but incorrectly), were:
approx 329k by jan 1 (difference of 51k)
approx 414k by feb 1 (difference of 131k)
approx 470k by mar 1 (difference of less than 200k)

he said let's look at "the facts", likely 250k dead between now and january. not march. not february. not the end of january. not 51k, not 131k, not less than 200k. as i said, he has been doing this religiously including in high profile debates for months. i've pointed it out multiple times (i think exclusively in reply when posts have been made here about the modeling or similar context). no one calls him out on it, so why stop until january?

joe's running on credibility and hopes that influences. it could be a small thing, it could be something else. but it's not anything other than intentionally misleading. falsehood. even for 78 year old joe. he's not the first. take it for whatever you will.

Old Joe is exaggerating! We might be at 215k by January.... not 250k!

it's 51k. not 215k. and not 250k. you're in the tank.

I misunderstood your posts. I was thinking the aggregate number not the incremental. I have not seem him talking about it. I have not paid much attention to what is forecasted. If old Joe is telling people 250k people will die between now and January, he is either crazy, lying or misreading his teleprompter. That is almost as bad as Trump saying its going to 0 in a few weeks....I didn’t internalize what you posted because I assumed it was something rational. Anybody ask Joe where he is getting 250k will die between now and January? Makes absolutely no sense, unless I misunderstood...

[MDlaxfan76]

mdlax, he is being intentionally misleading. has been for a while. has cited ihme more than once and when new numbers come up or when cnn has done bits on it... those are days he brings it up. with inflated info each time. yesterday... cnn, then inflated, incorrect "scary" numbers. personally, i think it's damaging to low-information people and those they affect just like trump has been...BUT nothing i can do about it.

get used to it. wait... you should be.

When I first read this, I thought the "he" referenced was me, but you mean Joe Biden.

The intentionality is where we apparently differ. You seem certain that Biden has been "intentionally misleading", and I'm far less certain.

On this issue in specific, I would definitely rather our public leaders err to the side of "playing up" the reasons to be concerned and to take action rather than the Trump conscious, admitted choice to "downplay" the reasons to be concerned.

Many of our populace needs to be more concerned, not less. We need the positive actions to slow the spread.

That said, I think you and I would agree that telling the truth, being accurate, admitting error when realized, all build future credibility...and credibility matters in a crisis.

our number was 272.7k dead on nov 2.
the ihme projections, which biden has consciously and explicitly utilized inaccurately for months for effect (often quoting their mask use savings estimates but incorrectly), were:
approx 329k by jan 1 (difference of 51k)
approx 414k by feb 1 (difference of 131k)
approx 470k by mar 1 (difference of less than 200k)

he said let's look at "the facts", likely 250k dead between now and january. not march. not february. not the end of january. not 51k, not 131k, not less than 200k. as i said, he has been doing this religiously including in high profile debates for months. i've pointed it out multiple times (i think exclusively in reply when posts have been made here about the modeling or similar context). no one calls him out on it, so why stop until january?

joe's running on credibility and hopes that influences. it could be a small thing, it could be something else. but it's not anything other than intentionally misleading. falsehood. even for 78 year old joe. he's not the first. take it for whatever you will.

Perhaps the reason we have different senses about Biden's intentions is because I don't see the political benefit of exaggerating these gross, obscenely large #'s to be simply larger, gross obscenely large #'s of deaths.

They're awful without the exaggeration. So, what's the upside of purposely exaggerating?

You could well be correct about this, I just don't see it as likely. Biden wouldn't get any credit for the #'s coming in lower before he's in charge, so what would the point be? He's not running for anything at this point, so no upside...and again, the projected #'s were already obscenely large prior to the election, so little benefit to going even bigger.

So my explanation is more about him flubbing such things regularly, a long known issue for Joe, but he tends to get things more right than wrong directionally. I think we'll see him hand this ball to the experts once he's in the Oval Office.

We "understood" Trump's likely motivations for his flailing around, downplaying the problem, and we later heard him admit it on tape. In that case, there's no doubt about intentionality...though in his case, there remains some question as to his sanity as well.

[wgdsr]

mdlax, he is being intentionally misleading. has been for a while. has cited ihme more than once and when new numbers come up or when cnn has done bits on it... those are days he brings it up. with inflated info each time. yesterday... cnn, then inflated, incorrect "scary" numbers. personally, i think it's damaging to low-information people and those they affect just like trump has been...BUT nothing i can do about it.

get used to it. wait... you should be.

When I first read this, I thought the "he" referenced was me, but you mean Joe Biden.

The intentionality is where we apparently differ. You seem certain that Biden has been "intentionally misleading", and I'm far less certain.

On this issue in specific, I would definitely rather our public leaders err to the side of "playing up" the reasons to be concerned and to take action rather than the Trump conscious, admitted choice to "downplay" the reasons to be concerned.

Many of our populace needs to be more concerned, not less. We need the positive actions to slow the spread.

That said, I think you and I would agree that telling the truth, being accurate, admitting error when realized, all build future credibility...and credibility matters in a crisis.

our number was 272.7k dead on nov 2.
the ihme projections, which biden has consciously and explicitly utilized inaccurately for months for effect (often quoting their mask use savings estimates but incorrectly), were:
approx 329k by jan 1 (difference of 51k)
approx 414k by feb 1 (difference of 131k)
approx 470k by mar 1 (difference of less than 200k)

he said let's look at "the facts", likely 250k dead between now and january. not march. not february. not the end of january. not 51k, not 131k, not less than 200k. as i said, he has been doing this religiously including in high profile debates for months. i've pointed it out multiple times (i think exclusively in reply when posts have been made here about the modeling or similar context). no one calls him out on it, so why stop until january?

joe's running on credibility and hopes that influences. it could be a small thing, it could be something else. but it's not anything other than intentionally misleading. falsehood. even for 78 year old joe. he's not the first. take it for whatever you will.

Old Joe is exaggerating! We might be at 215k by January.... not 250k!

it's 51k. not 215k. and not 250k. you're in the tank.

I misunderstood your posts. I was thinking the aggregate number not the incremental. I have not seem him talking about it. I have not paid much attention to what is forecasted. If old Joe is telling people 250k people will die between now and January, he is either crazy, lying or misreading his teleprompter. That is almost as bad as Trump saying its going to 0 in a few weeks....I didn’t internalize what you posted because I assumed it was something rational. Anybody ask Joe where he is getting 250k will die between now and January? Makes absolutely no sense, unless I misunderstood...

no one will be asking him. they haven't yet, and they won't. it's good ole joe. he's been off by over 100k for months now, and no one's said a peep so why not push it? anyway, stock up on masks and prep for that vax. might even be some money in it for you.

[ABV 8.3%]

oh no, the internet doesn't work........how in the world are you gonna make gin without the internet?

How about this: let me tell you what I wasn't able to get in the spring/summer because of LIMITED global shutdowns.

My malthouse that generates millions in revenue couldn't operate because I couldn't get one single motor starter for one motor. And it was back ordered. Know why? Because of limited Global shutdowns at not just the parts plant....but also distribution. Wholesalers are behind. Trucking is behind. And the electricians who need to install the starter? They're behind, too.

Result? It took two months to get that one single part in stock, on a truck, delivered, and installed. Now multiply this times the millions of businesses around the globe. And understand it will take YEARS for everyone to catch up.

And btw? All of this would have been made much, much worse if the internet was down for two week. How do you think customers order our spirits? And how does our distributor know what's been ordered, and what's been shipped? No internet= no economy.


You've been angry about shut downs this entire time. I get it. We're all frustrated, and sick of this stupid virus. I'm sorry you're having a rough time.

Really.

what makes you think the internet is going to break during those two weeks? Is it this fragile? Serious question. not my thing.

starter motor. How big? sounds very big.

Not sure what this has to do with v19 and my still unanswered question regarding postive covid 19 humans getting the vaccine. Will they get it>

I have been what you call "angry" at the lack of problem solving going on...........making a sickness political. ..\

still are......so, yeah, when the vast majority of post are negative sucks......offering only bitching sessions......it ain't cool. Nor productive.

Won't be blaming Biden for medical screwups. either.. Not his thing, science. Not sure what is.

[MDlaxfan76]

mdlax, he is being intentionally misleading. has been for a while. has cited ihme more than once and when new numbers come up or when cnn has done bits on it... those are days he brings it up. with inflated info each time. yesterday... cnn, then inflated, incorrect "scary" numbers. personally, i think it's damaging to low-information people and those they affect just like trump has been...BUT nothing i can do about it.

get used to it. wait... you should be.

When I first read this, I thought the "he" referenced was me, but you mean Joe Biden.

The intentionality is where we apparently differ. You seem certain that Biden has been "intentionally misleading", and I'm far less certain.

On this issue in specific, I would definitely rather our public leaders err to the side of "playing up" the reasons to be concerned and to take action rather than the Trump conscious, admitted choice to "downplay" the reasons to be concerned.

Many of our populace needs to be more concerned, not less. We need the positive actions to slow the spread.

That said, I think you and I would agree that telling the truth, being accurate, admitting error when realized, all build future credibility...and credibility matters in a crisis.

our number was 272.7k dead on nov 2.
the ihme projections, which biden has consciously and explicitly utilized inaccurately for months for effect (often quoting their mask use savings estimates but incorrectly), were:
approx 329k by jan 1 (difference of 51k)
approx 414k by feb 1 (difference of 131k)
approx 470k by mar 1 (difference of less than 200k)

he said let's look at "the facts", likely 250k dead between now and january. not march. not february. not the end of january. not 51k, not 131k, not less than 200k. as i said, he has been doing this religiously including in high profile debates for months. i've pointed it out multiple times (i think exclusively in reply when posts have been made here about the modeling or similar context). no one calls him out on it, so why stop until january?

joe's running on credibility and hopes that influences. it could be a small thing, it could be something else. but it's not anything other than intentionally misleading. falsehood. even for 78 year old joe. he's not the first. take it for whatever you will.

Old Joe is exaggerating! We might be at 215k by January.... not 250k!

it's 51k. not 215k. and not 250k. you're in the tank.

I misunderstood your posts. I was thinking the aggregate number not the incremental. I have not seem him talking about it. I have not paid much attention to what is forecasted. If old Joe is telling people 250k people will die between now and January, he is either crazy, lying or misreading his teleprompter. That is almost as bad as Trump saying its going to 0 in a few weeks....I didn’t internalize what you posted because I assumed it was something rational. Anybody ask Joe where he is getting 250k will die between now and January? Makes absolutely no sense, unless I misunderstood...

no one will be asking him. they haven't yet, and they won't. it's good ole joe. he's been off by over 100k for months now, and no one's said a peep so why not push it? anyway, stock up on masks and prep for that vax. might even be some money in it for you.

That's the sort of cynical nonsense that bothers me.

Of course someone is going to ask him (or his press secretary) to clarify the #'s he's using. In fact, if I was on his staff I'd make sure someone did so and clarify, carefully. The numbers are obscene without exaggeration.

It's the off the cuff or misread of the teleprompter that bites Joe. That's indeed not going to change. Comes with the package.

Where I think you may be correct is that the question would be phrased politely, helpfully, by some in the press, with the presumption that he misspoke...not the Fox person, perhaps, but it's the sort of thing that would get clarified somehow...kind of thing a press secretary might handle for him to keep it from being a contentious or embarrassing exchange.

[Typical Lax Dad]

mdlax, he is being intentionally misleading. has been for a while. has cited ihme more than once and when new numbers come up or when cnn has done bits on it... those are days he brings it up. with inflated info each time. yesterday... cnn, then inflated, incorrect "scary" numbers. personally, i think it's damaging to low-information people and those they affect just like trump has been...BUT nothing i can do about it.

get used to it. wait... you should be.

When I first read this, I thought the "he" referenced was me, but you mean Joe Biden.

The intentionality is where we apparently differ. You seem certain that Biden has been "intentionally misleading", and I'm far less certain.

On this issue in specific, I would definitely rather our public leaders err to the side of "playing up" the reasons to be concerned and to take action rather than the Trump conscious, admitted choice to "downplay" the reasons to be concerned.

Many of our populace needs to be more concerned, not less. We need the positive actions to slow the spread.

That said, I think you and I would agree that telling the truth, being accurate, admitting error when realized, all build future credibility...and credibility matters in a crisis.

our number was 272.7k dead on nov 2.
the ihme projections, which biden has consciously and explicitly utilized inaccurately for months for effect (often quoting their mask use savings estimates but incorrectly), were:
approx 329k by jan 1 (difference of 51k)
approx 414k by feb 1 (difference of 131k)
approx 470k by mar 1 (difference of less than 200k)

he said let's look at "the facts", likely 250k dead between now and january. not march. not february. not the end of january. not 51k, not 131k, not less than 200k. as i said, he has been doing this religiously including in high profile debates for months. i've pointed it out multiple times (i think exclusively in reply when posts have been made here about the modeling or similar context). no one calls him out on it, so why stop until january?

joe's running on credibility and hopes that influences. it could be a small thing, it could be something else. but it's not anything other than intentionally misleading. falsehood. even for 78 year old joe. he's not the first. take it for whatever you will.

Old Joe is exaggerating! We might be at 215k by January.... not 250k!

it's 51k. not 215k. and not 250k. you're in the tank.

I misunderstood your posts. I was thinking the aggregate number not the incremental. I have not seem him talking about it. I have not paid much attention to what is forecasted. If old Joe is telling people 250k people will die between now and January, he is either crazy, lying or misreading his teleprompter. That is almost as bad as Trump saying its going to 0 in a few weeks....I didn’t internalize what you posted because I assumed it was something rational. Anybody ask Joe where he is getting 250k will die between now and January? Makes absolutely no sense, unless I misunderstood...

no one will be asking him. they haven't yet, and they won't. it's good ole joe. he's been off by over 100k for months now, and no one's said a peep so why not push it? anyway, stock up on masks and prep for that vax. might even be some money in it for you.

I am pretty good with masks and don’t go out much. More worried about a kid bringing it home though. One of my son’s teammates just lost his father to it.... my son’s girlfriend’s father may have it....fingers crossed. Mother in law is here. Has been fine but will be a shame if Covid-19 gets her. Relatively healthy and independent....

[old salt]

wgdsr,
as you mentioned you were expecting, IHME is out with those new projected #'s. https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-s ... &tab=trend

538k by April 1 is the median estimate, (438k by Feb 1). Peak avg daily deaths predicted just under 3k as of mid January, but over 2.5k per day by mid December.

They've added a component related to vaccines. Median appears to include a vaccine rollout assumption but there's a small benefit accruing of a 'rapid vaccine rollout'. Biggest differential remains between universal masks and mandates easing.

Obviously this continues to be just a model' with assumptions that can only be validated fully as things play out.

The other key thing readers should understand is that the model shows variances, ranges, to each of the projected #'s that get increasingly wide the further out the projection. Pretty transparent.

for me, just like joe(ha!), their projections have been useful about 4 or 5 weeks out. best call they've made longer term so far has been on late year spike probably based mostly on seasonal. clock's right twice a day or that was an informed call.

it is good to see they have our case numbers cresting at about the same levels europe did, as i was hoping might happen. we'll see. bad news is germany's new projections now have them beating us by april 1. we're no longer projected #1 western world.

That can't be. Germany does everything right.

[wgdsr]

mdlax, he is being intentionally misleading. has been for a while. has cited ihme more than once and when new numbers come up or when cnn has done bits on it... those are days he brings it up. with inflated info each time. yesterday... cnn, then inflated, incorrect "scary" numbers. personally, i think it's damaging to low-information people and those they affect just like trump has been...BUT nothing i can do about it.

get used to it. wait... you should be.

When I first read this, I thought the "he" referenced was me, but you mean Joe Biden.

The intentionality is where we apparently differ. You seem certain that Biden has been "intentionally misleading", and I'm far less certain.

On this issue in specific, I would definitely rather our public leaders err to the side of "playing up" the reasons to be concerned and to take action rather than the Trump conscious, admitted choice to "downplay" the reasons to be concerned.

Many of our populace needs to be more concerned, not less. We need the positive actions to slow the spread.

That said, I think you and I would agree that telling the truth, being accurate, admitting error when realized, all build future credibility...and credibility matters in a crisis.

our number was 272.7k dead on nov 2.
the ihme projections, which biden has consciously and explicitly utilized inaccurately for months for effect (often quoting their mask use savings estimates but incorrectly), were:
approx 329k by jan 1 (difference of 51k)
approx 414k by feb 1 (difference of 131k)
approx 470k by mar 1 (difference of less than 200k)

he said let's look at "the facts", likely 250k dead between now and january. not march. not february. not the end of january. not 51k, not 131k, not less than 200k. as i said, he has been doing this religiously including in high profile debates for months. i've pointed it out multiple times (i think exclusively in reply when posts have been made here about the modeling or similar context). no one calls him out on it, so why stop until january?

joe's running on credibility and hopes that influences. it could be a small thing, it could be something else. but it's not anything other than intentionally misleading. falsehood. even for 78 year old joe. he's not the first. take it for whatever you will.

Old Joe is exaggerating! We might be at 215k by January.... not 250k!

it's 51k. not 215k. and not 250k. you're in the tank.

I misunderstood your posts. I was thinking the aggregate number not the incremental. I have not seem him talking about it. I have not paid much attention to what is forecasted. If old Joe is telling people 250k people will die between now and January, he is either crazy, lying or misreading his teleprompter. That is almost as bad as Trump saying its going to 0 in a few weeks....I didn’t internalize what you posted because I assumed it was something rational. Anybody ask Joe where he is getting 250k will die between now and January? Makes absolutely no sense, unless I misunderstood...

no one will be asking him. they haven't yet, and they won't. it's good ole joe. he's been off by over 100k for months now, and no one's said a peep so why not push it? anyway, stock up on masks and prep for that vax. might even be some money in it for you.

That's the sort of cynical nonsense that bothers me.

Of course someone is going to ask him (or his press secretary) to clarify the #'s he's using. In fact, if I was on his staff I'd make sure someone did so and clarify, carefully. The numbers are obscene without exaggeration.

It's the off the cuff or misread of the teleprompter that bites Joe. That's indeed not going to change. Comes with the package.

Where I think you may be correct is that the question would be phrased politely, helpfully, by some in the press, with the presumption that he misspoke...not the Fox person, perhaps, but it's the sort of thing that would get clarified somehow...kind of thing a press secretary might handle for him to keep it from being a contentious or embarrassing exchange.

i wouldn't get too worked up about it.

as i've tried to explain to you, he has been doing this for maybe 4 months. most of it was in the heat of an election. as ihme has been so widely marketed and even utilized prominently by the present administration (which i've criticized, only to be instructed on how to look at models on fanlax), i've followed my uw boys relatively closely.
so when joe's side started to utilize for advantage, i've been aware. i don't know if i've seen 5% or 15% of joe's public appearances, but it hasn't been much more than that. or trump's. and i've caught now 5 or 6 occasions where he's used what was originally accurate info to then be inaccurate and then very inaccurate. who knows how many times he's done it.

after one debate, it was one of the fact checks (on cnn). he's aware of it. his campaign and press secretary are aware of it.
he had continued to use the "200k by the end of the year", which he started with accurately, as it became increasingly wrong by 100k, and then 150k or more (ihme's projections from 415k down to 320, our deaths increasing).

this time.... he jumped to 250k out of nowhere (it doesn't fit even until march 1, certainly not now with a 50k bump), still used end of the year basically, and if you saw the presser you saw his exact language. give him a pass if you wish, i've said that already. the press has, and i think... will. when it changes or he posts up again on it and i see it, i'll give him credit for coming off of it or not.

he ran on credibility, as you say. i am watching to see whether we'll get what america paid for re: covid. yesterday, he said that hhs decided to distribute vaccines starting dec 15 based on what his new health advisory committee told them to do. a month plus before he's in office. he said we're doing a 100 day mask ask when he's sworn in. i guess 100 days is the number. i would be interested to know how they came up with the number, how we're doing things. i was cynical of politicians in the early 90s. needless to say, i still am.

[wgdsr]

I misunderstood your posts. I was thinking the aggregate number not the incremental. I have not seem him talking about it. I have not paid much attention to what is forecasted. If old Joe is telling people 250k people will die between now and January, he is either crazy, lying or misreading his teleprompter. That is almost as bad as Trump saying its going to 0 in a few weeks....I didn’t internalize what you posted because I assumed it was something rational. Anybody ask Joe where he is getting 250k will die between now and January? Makes absolutely no sense, unless I misunderstood...

no one will be asking him. they haven't yet, and they won't. it's good ole joe. he's been off by over 100k for months now, and no one's said a peep so why not push it? anyway, stock up on masks and prep for that vax. might even be some money in it for you.

That's the sort of cynical nonsense that bothers me.

Of course someone is going to ask him (or his press secretary) to clarify the #'s he's using. In fact, if I was on his staff I'd make sure someone did so and clarify, carefully. The numbers are obscene without exaggeration.

It's the off the cuff or misread of the teleprompter that bites Joe. That's indeed not going to change. Comes with the package.

Where I think you may be correct is that the question would be phrased politely, helpfully, by some in the press, with the presumption that he misspoke...not the Fox person, perhaps, but it's the sort of thing that would get clarified somehow...kind of thing a press secretary might handle for him to keep it from being a contentious or embarrassing exchange.

fyi, he just said it again.
while taking questions.
and no one called him on it.

[Typical Lax Dad]

I misunderstood your posts. I was thinking the aggregate number not the incremental. I have not seem him talking about it. I have not paid much attention to what is forecasted. If old Joe is telling people 250k people will die between now and January, he is either crazy, lying or misreading his teleprompter. That is almost as bad as Trump saying its going to 0 in a few weeks....I didn’t internalize what you posted because I assumed it was something rational. Anybody ask Joe where he is getting 250k will die between now and January? Makes absolutely no sense, unless I misunderstood...

no one will be asking him. they haven't yet, and they won't. it's good ole joe. he's been off by over 100k for months now, and no one's said a peep so why not push it? anyway, stock up on masks and prep for that vax. might even be some money in it for you.

That's the sort of cynical nonsense that bothers me.

Of course someone is going to ask him (or his press secretary) to clarify the #'s he's using. In fact, if I was on his staff I'd make sure someone did so and clarify, carefully. The numbers are obscene without exaggeration.

It's the off the cuff or misread of the teleprompter that bites Joe. That's indeed not going to change. Comes with the package.

Where I think you may be correct is that the question would be phrased politely, helpfully, by some in the press, with the presumption that he misspoke...not the Fox person, perhaps, but it's the sort of thing that would get clarified somehow...kind of thing a press secretary might handle for him to keep it from being a contentious or embarrassing exchange.

fyi, he just said it again.
while taking questions.
and no one called him on it.

https://amp.recordonline.com/amp/3824345001

It makes no sense. Someone needs to correct Joe! 8,600 people a day won’t be dying. Has someone push back and he reiterated it or are people letting Grandpa Joe talk....maybe Grandpa Joe needs Echo Silver! Maybe its on the un huh setting?

[CU88]

At the March 31 briefing, the IMPOTUS o d White House listed as “goals” 100,000 to 240,000 deaths. We are now at 276,000.

Trump Virus still going strong...

MAGA

[wgdsr]

At the March 31 briefing, the IMPOTUS o d White House listed as “goals” 100,000 to 240,000 deaths. We are now at 276,000.

Trump Virus still going strong...

MAGA

ihme just asked trump to be on advisory panel, or so i heard.

[ggait]

i guess 100 days is the number. i would be interested to know how they came up with the number, how we're doing things. i was cynical of politicians in the early 90s. needless to say, i still am.

Every incoming US president talks about his top priorities in terms of the first hundred days. Maybe FDR was the one who started it.

So asking citizens to suck it up for the first hundred days is something (rhetorically) that is quite common/familiar/expected around transition/inauguration time.

TBH, the 100 days of masks (April 20) will very likely need to be extended further. But the most impactful thing is for people to hunker down in Dec/Jan/Feb/March.

So pretty good stuff coming from Joe. Maybe he's not so stupid and demented after all?

[Typical Lax Dad]

At the March 31 briefing, the IMPOTUS o d White House listed as “goals” 100,000 to 240,000 deaths. We are now at 276,000.

Trump Virus still going strong...

MAGA

ihme just asked trump to be on advisory panel, or so i heard.

I wonder what IMHE has paid to be the point of reference?

[wgdsr]

At the March 31 briefing, the IMPOTUS o d White House listed as “goals” 100,000 to 240,000 deaths. We are now at 276,000.

Trump Virus still going strong...

MAGA

ihme just asked trump to be on advisory panel, or so i heard.

I wonder what IMHE has paid to be the point of reference?

they should've been fired after allowing trump to save 2 million lives.
then again, bill has a lot of money.

[Typical Lax Dad]

At the March 31 briefing, the IMPOTUS o d White House listed as “goals” 100,000 to 240,000 deaths. We are now at 276,000.

Trump Virus still going strong...

MAGA

ihme just asked trump to be on advisory panel, or so i heard.

I wonder what IMHE has paid to be the point of reference?

they should've been fired after allowing trump to save 2 million lives.
then again, bill has a lot of money.

You mean someone is paying them for the data??!!