All things CoronaVirus

[Matnum PI]

California. https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/11/30 ... -christmas

[wgdsr]

Vitamin D Insufficiency May Account for Almost Nine of Ten COVID-19 Deaths: Time to Act. Comment on: “Vitamin D Deficiency and Outcome of COVID-19 Patients”. Nutrients 2020, 12, 2757

https://www.mdpi.com/2072-6643/12/12/3642/htm

just don't take a big one as a last resort! these docs in brazil seem down with about any kind of dosage for their cures, trials included.
https://www.businessinsider.com/vitamin ... dy-2020-11
i wonder if you went in with a headache if they'd say take 100 aspirin and call me in the morning.

[kramerica.inc]

Are you ready for some Football?
Some Wednesday afternoon non-competitive football?!



https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.espn.c ... atform=amp

[cradleandshoot]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/30/asia/wuh ... index.html

The chicoms screwed the pooch on the handling of the virus as well.

[Typical Lax Dad]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/30/asia/wuh ... index.html

The chicoms screwed the pooch on the handling of the virus as well.

I am shocked!! That’s not what we were told!!

[MDlaxfan76]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/30/asia/wuh ... index.html

The chicoms screwed the pooch on the handling of the virus as well.

I am shocked!! That’s not what we were told!!

Indeed, far from a surprise. I do find interesting that the flu spike at the end of the fall may have confounded their early recognition, but the bureaucratic snafus and likely intentional obfuscation is not a surprise. Also not a surprise that the health system was behind where they had been saying, telling themselves and the world.

It's important to note that 10's of thousands of government people involved have lost their jobs since then. Not tens, not hundreds, not thousands...tens of thousands.

[Typical Lax Dad]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/30/asia/wuh ... index.html

The chicoms screwed the pooch on the handling of the virus as well.

I am shocked!! That’s not what we were told!!

Indeed, far from a surprise. I do find interesting that the flu spike at the end of the fall may have confounded their early recognition, but the bureaucratic snafus and likely intentional obfuscation is not a surprise. Also not a surprise that the health system was behind where they had been saying, telling themselves and the world.

It's important to note that 10's of thousands of government people involved have lost their jobs since then. Not tens, not hundreds, not thousands...tens of thousands.

We were slow to react because China told us the coast was clear!

[MDlaxfan76]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/30/asia/wuh ... index.html

The chicoms screwed the pooch on the handling of the virus as well.

I am shocked!! That’s not what we were told!!

Indeed, far from a surprise. I do find interesting that the flu spike at the end of the fall may have confounded their early recognition, but the bureaucratic snafus and likely intentional obfuscation is not a surprise. Also not a surprise that the health system was behind where they had been saying, telling themselves and the world.

It's important to note that 10's of thousands of government people involved have lost their jobs since then. Not tens, not hundreds, not thousands...tens of thousands.

We were slow to react because China told us the coast was clear!

Yeah, we didn't have any ability to monitor China's social media outrage when Li Wenliang died on Feb 7 or the videos of drones telling people on the street to go inside.

[Typical Lax Dad]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/30/asia/wuh ... index.html

The chicoms screwed the pooch on the handling of the virus as well.

I am shocked!! That’s not what we were told!!

Indeed, far from a surprise. I do find interesting that the flu spike at the end of the fall may have confounded their early recognition, but the bureaucratic snafus and likely intentional obfuscation is not a surprise. Also not a surprise that the health system was behind where they had been saying, telling themselves and the world.

It's important to note that 10's of thousands of government people involved have lost their jobs since then. Not tens, not hundreds, not thousands...tens of thousands.

We were slow to react because China told us the coast was clear!

Yeah, we didn't have any ability to monitor China's social media outrage when Li Wenliang died on Feb 7 or the videos of drones telling people on the street to go inside.

[Typical Lax Dad]

Roll the tape!



I am so disappointed in China.....they let us down

[holmes435]

Coronavirus Was In U.S. Weeks Earlier Than Previously Known, Study Says

Researchers found coronavirus antibodies in 39 samples from California, Oregon, and Washington as early as Dec. 13 to Dec. 16. They also discovered antibodies in 67 samples from Connecticut, Iowa, Massachusetts, Michigan, Rhode Island, and Wisconsin in early January — before widespread outbreaks in those states.

Antibodies in those samples would mean exposure at least ~2 weeks earlier, so this thing was in the US in late November.

I had some kind of illness around February 18th-23 with some COVID symptoms (sore throat, fever, chills, deep chest cough, aches), but no one I was in close contact with caught it, or if they did they were asymptomatic. I guess I should go get an antibody test around here, would be interesting to know.

[holmes435]

Found an interesting website analyzing various COVID strains

https://nextstrain.org/ncov/global

[RedFromMI]

Coronavirus Was In U.S. Weeks Earlier Than Previously Known, Study Says

Researchers found coronavirus antibodies in 39 samples from California, Oregon, and Washington as early as Dec. 13 to Dec. 16. They also discovered antibodies in 67 samples from Connecticut, Iowa, Massachusetts, Michigan, Rhode Island, and Wisconsin in early January — before widespread outbreaks in those states.

Antibodies in those samples would mean exposure at least ~2 weeks earlier, so this thing was in the US in late November.

I had some kind of illness around February 18th-23 with some COVID symptoms (sore throat, fever, chills, deep chest cough, aches), but no one I was in close contact with caught it, or if they did they were asymptomatic. I guess I should go get an antibody test around here, would be interesting to know.

There is good reason to be skeptical of this result (from a Twitter thread from an expert, Trevor Bedford, UW Epidemiologist):

I don't think that this study by Basavaraju et al from @CDCgov can be taken as evidence that #COVID19 was circulating in the US in December 2019.

https://t.co/yTjIwSvM4X

The authors do a careful serological investigation, but it necessarily suffers from testing a large number of samples with an assay that is not perfectly specific.

The ELISA used by the authors has a stated specificity of 99.3% and the authors tested 519 "true negative" blood samples collected from 2016 to 2019 from healthy adults and suspected hanta virus patients and observed 3 false positives (0.6%) matching this specificity.

The authors tested 1912 blood samples collected between Dec 13 and Dec 16 2019 and observed 39 positives (2.0%). A Fisher's Exact Test comparing 3/519 to 39/1912 is narrowly significant with p = 0.02

However, there is ample reason to expect that individuals recently recovered from seasonal coronavirus infection will have more cross-reactivity to SARS-CoV-2 than random healthy adults. In fact this can be seen in this paper by Freeman et al (https://t.co/wPOMTuWCUs)

Here, ELISA titers are higher in individuals who were recently infected with seasonal coronavirus compared to random healthy adults. This is particularly the case in related betacoronaviruses OC43 and HKU1.



Additionally, we know that seasonal coronaviruses circulate at higher frequencies in the winter. We can see this in @seattleflustudy
data where there is significant seasonal coronavirus circulation in Dec 2019.



It seems highly likely to me that the 39 "positives" from Dec 13 to Dec 16 reported by Basavaraju et al are due to cross-reactivity from recent seasonal coronavirus infection. It would just take a slight decrease of assay specificity to ~98% to explain this outcome.

The authors highlight the study's limitation due to "potential cross reactivity with human common coronavirus infection" in the paper's discussion, but it unfortunately didn't make it into the @WSJ
story (https://t.co/RUjWLsucc5?amp=1)

The other angle to consider is that if we're supposed to believe that 2.0% of random blood donors in Dec 2019 are COVID+ this would translate to millions of infections in the population at large, in which case we would have noticed due to people dying in large numbers.

[3rdPersonPlural]

Yeah, we need to realize that death is not the only adverse result.

Weeks in the hospital that extract a quarter of a million dollars from your savings is an adverse result.

A damaged heart or damaged lungs are both material problems that fcuk up the rest of your life. Some people might rather die.

Strokes and melted cognitive function? Again, I might rather just die.

[wgdsr]

Yeah, we need to realize that death is not the only adverse result.

Weeks in the hospital that extract a quarter of a million dollars from your savings is an adverse result.

A damaged heart or damaged lungs are both material problems that fcuk up the rest of your life. Some people might rather die.

Strokes and melted cognitive function? Again, I might rather just die.

where did that guy get all those stats?

[Typical Lax Dad]

Yeah, we need to realize that death is not the only adverse result.

Weeks in the hospital that extract a quarter of a million dollars from your savings is an adverse result.

A damaged heart or damaged lungs are both material problems that fcuk up the rest of your life. Some people might rather die.

Strokes and melted cognitive function? Again, I might rather just die.

where did that guy get all those stats?

Not Dr. Atlas....probably YA?

[youthathletics]

Yeah, we need to realize that death is not the only adverse result.

Weeks in the hospital that extract a quarter of a million dollars from your savings is an adverse result.

A damaged heart or damaged lungs are both material problems that fcuk up the rest of your life. Some people might rather die.

Strokes and melted cognitive function? Again, I might rather just die.

where did that guy get all those stats?

Not Dr. Atlas....probably YA?

Yea okay, Mr.Helllllper (ref Sam Kinison from movie Back to School) . It’s is odd how a novel virus all of a sudden creates irreversible results and we are only ~10 months in.How can we be so certain when even the science on it is changing.

[Typical Lax Dad]

Yeah, we need to realize that death is not the only adverse result.

Weeks in the hospital that extract a quarter of a million dollars from your savings is an adverse result.

A damaged heart or damaged lungs are both material problems that fcuk up the rest of your life. Some people might rather die.

Strokes and melted cognitive function? Again, I might rather just die.

where did that guy get all those stats?

Not Dr. Atlas....probably YA?

Yea okay, Mr.Helllllper (ref Sam Kinison from movie Back to School) . It’s is odd how a novel virus all of a sudden creates irreversible results and we are only ~10 months in.How can we be so certain when even the science on it is changing.

Who knows. A friend of mine can’t bike anymore. His endurance is gone. It may come back. He had it last Spring (undiagnosed). He said he needed a mop and bucket to get up all the urine. He couldn’t make it to the bathroom...too weak. His lung capacity is way down now....healthy guy.

[Typical Lax Dad]

[Bart]

Yeah, we need to realize that death is not the only adverse result.

Weeks in the hospital that extract a quarter of a million dollars from your savings is an adverse result.

A damaged heart or damaged lungs are both material problems that fcuk up the rest of your life. Some people might rather die.

Strokes and melted cognitive function? Again, I might rather just die.

where did that guy get all those stats?

Good question. Lots of mathiness in that list.