2020 Elections - Trump FIRED

[seacoaster]

Congrats to Joe. Here’s to a prosperous and safe next 4 years.

Take 3 short minutes:

https://twitter.com/aprilbites2/status/ ... 72801?s=21

Thanks for posting this. McCain thought this was among the best and most important public addresses of his life as a public figure, and he thought it was perhaps the best speech ever produced by his speechwriter, Mark Salter. It is literally a beautiful bit of wordsmithing, and was well-delivered by Senator McCain. His acknowledgement of the historic nature of the election of a black man is beautifully done. I actually love the quiet and firm frustration in his face when the boos for Obama start; he knew this was not the message he wanted associated with the last breaths of his campaign for the Presidency.

I think it is interesting to look at George H.W. Bush's concession to WJ Clinton; it has Bush's folksy bit of bad syntax, but the message is the same: the battle is over, we are all Americans, we must do what we can to support the President-Elect. When he mentioned Clinton he stopped in his tracks and said "what a great campaign he ran," and no one in the audience of ardent disappointed supporters booed. Those were the days.

[dislaxxic]

Already sent a couple benjamins to Stacey for her get-out-the-vote effort.

Georgia going Blue...we can only dream, right? (oh, and send $$)

..

[MDlaxfan76]

Only way to win in Georgia is to get all the trump voters to turn out in January.

You break with trump now, guaranteed loss.

Party over country.

I think the trump voters will come out in georgia no matter what. I would think this is less about trump and more about the importance of keeping the senate to the republican party. Checks and balances is a good thing. I would think all Republicans understand what the bottom line is.

The question is what % of those voters are Trump Cult versus "Republican". Even a small portion of those who voted for Trump becoming angry at the GOP "Establishment" could mean they stay home... and if the Dems show up...

Would that not be called biting off your own nose just to spite your face? The hardcore trump folks are not stupid. Of course maybe giving the keys to the steamroller over to the democrats will be a beautiful thing to them?

There have been a remarkably high number of previously non-voters who showed up for Trump, bunch in 2016 and many millions more in 2020. They didn't show up for the GOP, but they voted down ballot for GOP.

Will they show up for Trumpy GOP candidates with Trump not on the ballot?

Trump didn't convert any meaningful # of Hillary or third party voters from 2016 to vote for him in 2020, but he did attract a huge # of voters who simply never participate otherwise. Would they come out for these Georgia Trumpy GOP candidates if they stood up and said enough with this, Biden won Georgia, and it ticked off Trump? Or do they need to call for the GOP Secretary of State to resign, to blare out baseless allegations of fraud, etc? Just to keep Trump in their corner?

Biden did convert some of the prior Trump voters, yet enough of them voted down ballot with the GOP to keep it from costing the R's much. Not so much the suburban women, but a point here or there in ruby red districts. And older voters turned off by Trump. They stuck with GOP.

But Biden turned out enormous #'s of infrequent voters as well, though that was far less the story than the conversion of older voters and suburban women.

So, it's going to be an interesting turnout question. History would certainly suggest that a special election favors the steadiest of voters, typically older and whiter, thus GOP, and especially in a place like Georgia, but this may have different dynamics.

[ggait]

Without Trump on the ballot in 2018, the GA gov race was 50R/49D.

[MDlaxfan76]

Without Trump on the ballot in 2018, the GA gov race was 50R/49D.

Yup, nip and tuck...

My hope is that the Dems win these two and can get some important stuff done on election reform, get a strong stimulus package done focused on infrastructure/green led, get some judges through, no big fights on Cabinet, etc.

It's unlikely they'll swing too far as Senators like Manchin will be able to create sufficient friction, plus Joe just isn't a lefty...but if they do swing too far somehow, the voters can have their say in 2 and 4 years.

[dislaxxic]

Without Trump on the ballot in 2018, the GA gov race was 50R/49D.

Yes, although the Abrams voting initiative was (is) chugging along at full speed these last two years...and appears to have turned Georgia Blue, at least in the 2020 presidential...

..

[Farfromgeneva]

Without Trump on the ballot in 2018, the GA gov race was 50R/49D.

Kemp is a stiff. Career small time local guy who was real hungry about getting a high end political gig. Less concerned about the whole serving the people part. Close friend has him on speed dial and speaks much more highly of him than my opinion. Haven’t had the heart to tell him the nugget I shared here about a certain gentlemen’s club membership he has even though that’s the least of my concerns (as long as said club owner keep paying his preferred dividend payment to his investors anyways)

[Farfromgeneva]

Without Trump on the ballot in 2018, the GA gov race was 50R/49D.

Yes, although the Abrams voting initiative was (is) chugging along at full speed these last two years...and appears to have turned Georgia Blue, at least in the 2020 presidential...

..

Abrams is a really good lady and has done some good things but the rest of the country has to stop deifying her. This shift in Ga has been happening for two decades, mirroring the net migration from the north. It was always a matter of time, just came 5-10yrs sooner than I expected as places like East Cobb are still pretty conservative. But the rest of the state, largely rural, is dying off, no one is moving there. It’s become Atlanta and everywhere else in the state.

Not to knock her but seeing these attributions to her are just way over the top and it’s everywhere it seems.

[Typical Lax Dad]

Without Trump on the ballot in 2018, the GA gov race was 50R/49D.

Yes, although the Abrams voting initiative was (is) chugging along at full speed these last two years...and appears to have turned Georgia Blue, at least in the 2020 presidential...

..

Abrams is a really good lady and has done some good things but the rest of the country has to stop deifying her. This shift in Ga has been happening for two decades, mirroring the net migration from the north. It was always a matter of time, just came 5-10yrs sooner than I expected as places like East Cobb are still pretty conservative. But the rest of the state, largely rural, is dying off, no one is moving there. It’s become Atlanta and everywhere else in the state.

Not to knock her but seeing these attributions to her are just way over the top and it’s everywhere it seems.

I was talking to a buddy from Ohio and we talked about all the people we know from Ohio that have moved to Atlanta and Dallas.

[Farfromgeneva]

Exactly. There’s other pockets of net northern migration south incl Raleigh, Nashville, Phoenix, Austin but Atlanta and Dallas have been growing like weeds for a while.

[CU88]

BREAKING: Trump said to be in negotiations over what color costume to wear in Dancing With The Stars.

Fake tan orange or KKK white?

[CU88]

Already sent a couple benjamins to Stacey for her get-out-the-vote effort.

Georgia going Blue...we can only dream, right? (oh, and send $$)

..

Ditto

https://www.winbothseats.org/

[ggait]

Already sent a couple benjamins to Stacey for her get-out-the-vote effort.

Georgia going Blue...we can only dream, right? (oh, and send $$)

..

Ditto

https://www.winbothseats.org/

Hope you get a better ROI than I got sending $$ to SC to knock off Lindsay Graham...

[jhu72]

Already sent a couple benjamins to Stacey for her get-out-the-vote effort.

Georgia going Blue...we can only dream, right? (oh, and send $$)

..

Ditto

https://www.winbothseats.org/

Both of these are going to be razor thin margins. I have analyzed the returns in the Warnock race. 20 candidates split the vote up pretty good. Collins and Loeffler combined got less votes than Perdue. All the dem vote in the special election is a few thousand more than what Ossoff got and about a hundred thousand more than Collins / Loeffler combined. Loeffler has to rely on getting all of Collins vote (unlikely - they banged each other up good) and significant votes from the 100,000+ R's that didn't vote for either. There is also about 110,000 3rd party vote. If every one of the voters that voted last time, but for the 3rd parties shows, I think this would be closer than the Ossoff race, maybe slightly favoring Warnock.

This is all going to come down to who shows up. I think it is likely the dems will win the Warnock race before winning the Ossoff race. If Trump doesn't show up, the dems likely sweep assuming the Georgia voters who voted for Biden all show up. If Trump shows up, the dems probably need to find another 100,000 voters.

[old salt]

I would think that most every single establishment republican out there would consider it a badge of honor to break with trump. The people that support him have to understand it is time to move on.

Not a chance. You can't put the cat back in the bag, and I tried to explain this to posters like OS when Trump got elected.

Establishment Republicans think that Trump was an anomaly. They think that when he's gone, "Republican can get back to normal".

Nope. Too late for that. Trump has done more damage to the US that anyone seems to understand.

To wit: 70% of Republican voters think the election was fraudulent. If you see that number, and understand that there is zero----none----evidence of widespread fraud in multiple States...and (snicker) only for the box marked "Trump", and the other races are perfectly fine? You understand the serious trouble our nation is in.

I wagered with Old Salt that that 70% number wouldn't dip below 50% after the fake investigations into fraud are finished.

Today? I'm feeling like that number might go UP, not down.

Lost. Republicans are completely and utterly lost at sea.

After the 2016 election, there was a good chance that Trump would be an accidental one term phenomenon.
Had what would normally be The Loyal Opposition not become The Resistance, Trump's shortcomings would have undone him.
Crossfire Hurricane, the Russia hoax, the Mueller probe, then a petty, vindictive, baseless impeachment, solidified his support.
A hopeless impeachment forced GOP Senators to vote to keep him in office, then justify that support.
The tactics of Trump's opponents played a big part in growing & solidifying his support & frightening undecided or lukewarm supporters.
Conservatives saw Trump's rabid detractors as crazy as Trump. With Trump, they at least got policies & results they liked.
Trump struck a nerve with a large segment of the public who see him as the middle finger wave to the preachy, condescending, bi-coastal elites.
Deriding them as racists or nativists just drives more of them deeper into the Trump camp. Well played, TDS zealots

[Farfromgeneva]

Already sent a couple benjamins to Stacey for her get-out-the-vote effort.

Georgia going Blue...we can only dream, right? (oh, and send $$)

..

Ditto

https://www.winbothseats.org/

Hope you get a better ROI than I got sending $$ to SC to knock off Lindsay Graham...

I’m sure it felt good just to send it. I spend a good amount of time in upstate SC (Greenville and surrounding areas) and while there’s some growth I am surprised at how much the older and poorer folks dig in each year. they’re so blinded by whatever that they truly don’t see that their leaders don’t behave in any way close to their ideals. Integrity is abstract to them seemingly.

Columbia is a little different and the coastal areas are their own entity. I almost took a job with a bank in Columbia, now merged with a FL bank to be decent sized, a few years back. Spent meaningful time in the area getting to know neighborhoods, but couldn’t come to certain terms (basically I was told be CFO numerous times I was inheriting the treasurers job but he wouldn’t put it in my contract which led to distrust such that I wasn’t going to pick up my family and relocate).

Have come to the conclusion though that if not for being bound by ga and NC that SC would look a lot more like MS/AL/LA

[RedFromMI]

Can Trump still win? No. He’s already lost.

https://www.nytimes.com/article/can-tru ... l-win.html

Five days after television networks and other major news organizations called the presidential election for Joseph R. Biden Jr., President Trump continues to maintain that he “will win.”

That is false.

Mr. Biden’s winning margins in the key battleground states he has captured — 20,000 votes in Wisconsin, 54,000 votes in Pennsylvania and 148,000 votes in Michigan — are well above the thresholds of votes that have been changed in previous recounts.

Even in Georgia, where officials are preparing for a hand recount of the ballots, Mr. Biden leads by 14,000 votes, a margin that is unlikely to be reversed.

(Mr. Biden also leads by 11,000 votes in Arizona, but elections officials there are still counting absentee votes that arrived by mail.)

The New York Times and other news media outlets have not anointed Mr. Biden the winner of the presidential election, but have just done the math: The former vice president has won enough states by enough votes that Mr. Trump cannot overcome those deficits through legal challenges or recounts.

“He has no chance of overturning the result — it’s just impossible,” said Gerry McDonough, a Democratic elections lawyer who worked for Vice President Al Gore’s legal team on the 2000 Florida recount. “I’m a recount lawyer here in Massachusetts and I get requests from people all the time and they say, ‘I’m just 50 votes behind and we’re sure there were these bad actors.’ I won’t take a case like that.”

That 2000 Florida recount came after George W. Bush held an unofficial lead of just 1,784 votes over Mr. Gore the morning after Election Day; his final winning margin in the state was 537 votes.

The largest margin to be overturned in a recent recount came in Minnesota’s 2008 Senate contest, when a 215-vote margin for Senator Norm Coleman, the incumbent Republican, was reversed, becoming a 312-vote advantage for Al Franken, the Democratic candidate, after a court ruled that hundreds of absentee ballots were wrongly rejected.

In the days since the election, Mr. Trump and his top aides and some supporters have claimed that the vote in key states was marked by rampant fraud, but they have yet to document any evidence of widespread voting malfeasance. Elections officials in all 50 states told The New York Times this week that they were unaware of any fraud or other election improprieties in their states.

Each day that passes without Mr. Trump providing a court evidence of voting fraud makes his legal odds longer, Democratic and Republican lawyers said.

“The path for him winning is being able to back up his rhetoric and find sufficient fraud and irregularities in enough individual states to overturn their results,” said Ben Ginsberg, a Republican lawyer who worked for Mr. Bush in the 2000 election, and who retired this year and turned against Mr. Trump. “So far, they’ve utterly failed to do that and, based on their court filings, are not anywhere close.”

[kramerica.inc]

Something for everyone:

[cradleandshoot]

Already sent a couple benjamins to Stacey for her get-out-the-vote effort.

Georgia going Blue...we can only dream, right? (oh, and send $$)

..

I thought the objective from you FLP folks was to keep that confounded money out of the elections? Unless of course.......

[cradleandshoot]

BREAKING: Trump said to be in negotiations over what color costume to wear in Dancing With The Stars.

Fake tan orange or KKK white?

You commie libs are soooooo mean. I think he should go with the tan/orange.