Is a 2021 season going to happen?

[veryoldgoose]

I see all the covid-deniers have gotten real quiet now that karma has caught up to the administration. Turns out lying to the country about mask wearing and social distancing might actually come back to haunt the orange mango in chief.

[hofpride]

I will take the mango over the mummy

[FMUBart]

I see all the covid-deniers have gotten real quiet now that karma has caught up to the administration. Turns out lying to the country about mask wearing and social distancing might actually come back to haunt the orange mango in chief.

No one is denying the existence of Covid...many of us are just pointing out that the survival rate is 99.7% with no pre-existing conditions. I know several friends that had the virus(antibody test) and didn't even know it. IT'S A VIRUS, its contagious and caution is advised; but the sky is not falling...I know that doesn't fit your obvious political narrative, but for the overwhelming majority, no real cause for concern.

[FMUBart]

I will take the mango over the mummy

+1

[Laxxal22]

The mango is also a mummy

[JBFortunato]

I see all the covid-deniers have gotten real quiet now that karma has caught up to the administration. Turns out lying to the country about mask wearing and social distancing might actually come back to haunt the orange mango in chief.

Trump has a cold, everyone panic!

Go hide under a bed somewhere. Make sure you wear a mask.

[PizzaSnake]

I see all the covid-deniers have gotten real quiet now that karma has caught up to the administration. Turns out lying to the country about mask wearing and social distancing might actually come back to haunt the orange mango in chief.

No one is denying the existence of Covid...many of us are just pointing out that the survival rate is 99.7% with no pre-existing conditions. I know several friends that had the virus(antibody test) and didn't even know it. IT'S A VIRUS, its contagious and caution is advised; but the sky is not falling...I know that doesn't fit your obvious political narrative, but for the overwhelming majority, no real cause for concern.

A few questions:

1. What is rate of co-morbidities by demographic cohort?

2. For 1., whose Åsa were those pulled from? Given our “world’s best health care system I’m sure there is plenty of “pristine data”... not.
3. What is survival rate for these other cohorts?

If you are going to use statistics, don’t be so imprecise. Makes people think you are either obtuse or of ill-intent.

“Lies, damned lies, and statistics”
— Mark Twain

[Typical Lax Dad]

I see all the covid-deniers have gotten real quiet now that karma has caught up to the administration. Turns out lying to the country about mask wearing and social distancing might actually come back to haunt the orange mango in chief.

No one is denying the existence of Covid...many of us are just pointing out that the survival rate is 99.7% with no pre-existing conditions. I know several friends that had the virus(antibody test) and didn't even know it. IT'S A VIRUS, its contagious and caution is advised; but the sky is not falling...I know that doesn't fit your obvious political narrative, but for the overwhelming majority, no real cause for concern.

Out of curiosity, where are you getting that 0.3% of people die? Do you have a link or is that an estimate? Not debating it. I know out of the resolved cases, 4% have died. I was wondering how the difference was accounted for.

As of today, there have been 26,850,170 resolved coronavirus cases of which 1,031,143 have died for a 3.8% rate. In order to get to 0.3%, that would mean that there are 316,864,163 cases that are unaccounted for as 1,031,143 / 343,714,333 = 0.3% unless my math is wrong. I was wondering if you have seen data that suggest that to be the case? We would be at 20% heard immunity in this country. 990,000 deaths here (or that range) It seems plausible.

[wgdsr]

I see all the covid-deniers have gotten real quiet now that karma has caught up to the administration. Turns out lying to the country about mask wearing and social distancing might actually come back to haunt the orange mango in chief.

No one is denying the existence of Covid...many of us are just pointing out that the survival rate is 99.7% with no pre-existing conditions. I know several friends that had the virus(antibody test) and didn't even know it. IT'S A VIRUS, its contagious and caution is advised; but the sky is not falling...I know that doesn't fit your obvious political narrative, but for the overwhelming majority, no real cause for concern.

Out of curiosity, where are you getting that 0.3% of people die? Do you have a link or is that an estimate? Not debating it. I know out of the resolved cases, 4% have died. I was wondering how the difference was accounted for.

As of today, there have been 26,850,170 resolved coronavirus cases of which 1,031,143 have died for a 3.8% rate. In order to get to 0.3%, that would mean that there are 316,864,163 cases that are unaccounted for as 1,031,143 / 343,714,333 = 0.3% unless my math is wrong. I was wondering if you have seen data that suggest that to be the case? We would be at 20% heard immunity in this country. 990,000 deaths here (or that range) It seems plausible.

https://reason.com/2020/09/29/the-lates ... -with-age/
redfield testified to congress that they were wrapping a nationwide study soon and that over 90% of the population was still susceptible.
using that, their number is 0.65%.
cfr chart by age (halfway down, far right best estimate, sources explained in notes under the chart):
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... arios.html

personally, i think the infection is much deeper. but you already knew that and no one's asking me.

[pcowlax]

I see all the covid-deniers have gotten real quiet now that karma has caught up to the administration. Turns out lying to the country about mask wearing and social distancing might actually come back to haunt the orange mango in chief.

No one is denying the existence of Covid...many of us are just pointing out that the survival rate is 99.7% with no pre-existing conditions. I know several friends that had the virus(antibody test) and didn't even know it. IT'S A VIRUS, its contagious and caution is advised; but the sky is not falling...I know that doesn't fit your obvious political narrative, but for the overwhelming majority, no real cause for concern.

Out of curiosity, where are you getting that 0.3% of people die? Do you have a link or is that an estimate? Not debating it. I know out of the resolved cases, 4% have died. I was wondering how the difference was accounted for.

As of today, there have been 26,850,170 resolved coronavirus cases of which 1,031,143 have died for a 3.8% rate. In order to get to 0.3%, that would mean that there are 316,864,163 cases that are unaccounted for as 1,031,143 / 343,714,333 = 0.3% unless my math is wrong. I was wondering if you have seen data that suggest that to be the case? We would be at 20% heard immunity in this country. 990,000 deaths here (or that range) It seems plausible.

You can’t use those data to calculate mortality, huge numbers of patients who recover are not entered in as “resolved” (astronomical selection bias) and, more importantly, it is only using patient who test + when antibody studies show somewhere between 5-20x more people have had it than have tested + on PCR testing (which is what the positive numbers you are using are drawn from). Very recent CDC data shows what has been apparent all along, very dangerous in the elderly, reason for some caution in older middle age, less risk than the common flu in those under 50. Overall fatality is indeed likely around 0.3-0.5%. This has been proposed for quite some time. A rate of 3.8% would indeed be reason to shut the country down. The real rate show why kids should be in school and why in a sane world there would be a spring 2021 lax season. Data is:

Age Case Fatality rate
0-19 0.003%
20-49 0.02%
50-69 0.5%
70+. 5.4%

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... arios.html

[Typical Lax Dad]

I see all the covid-deniers have gotten real quiet now that karma has caught up to the administration. Turns out lying to the country about mask wearing and social distancing might actually come back to haunt the orange mango in chief.

No one is denying the existence of Covid...many of us are just pointing out that the survival rate is 99.7% with no pre-existing conditions. I know several friends that had the virus(antibody test) and didn't even know it. IT'S A VIRUS, its contagious and caution is advised; but the sky is not falling...I know that doesn't fit your obvious political narrative, but for the overwhelming majority, no real cause for concern.

Out of curiosity, where are you getting that 0.3% of people die? Do you have a link or is that an estimate? Not debating it. I know out of the resolved cases, 4% have died. I was wondering how the difference was accounted for.

As of today, there have been 26,850,170 resolved coronavirus cases of which 1,031,143 have died for a 3.8% rate. In order to get to 0.3%, that would mean that there are 316,864,163 cases that are unaccounted for as 1,031,143 / 343,714,333 = 0.3% unless my math is wrong. I was wondering if you have seen data that suggest that to be the case? We would be at 20% heard immunity in this country. 990,000 deaths here (or that range) It seems plausible.

https://reason.com/2020/09/29/the-lates ... -with-age/
redfield testified to congress that they were wrapping a nationwide study soon and that over 90% of the population was still susceptible.
using that, their number is 0.65%.
cfr chart by age (halfway down, far right best estimate, sources explained in notes under the chart):
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... arios.html

personally, i think the infection is much deeper. but you already knew that and no one's asking me.

Based on your gut?

[wgdsr]

I see all the covid-deniers have gotten real quiet now that karma has caught up to the administration. Turns out lying to the country about mask wearing and social distancing might actually come back to haunt the orange mango in chief.

No one is denying the existence of Covid...many of us are just pointing out that the survival rate is 99.7% with no pre-existing conditions. I know several friends that had the virus(antibody test) and didn't even know it. IT'S A VIRUS, its contagious and caution is advised; but the sky is not falling...I know that doesn't fit your obvious political narrative, but for the overwhelming majority, no real cause for concern.

Out of curiosity, where are you getting that 0.3% of people die? Do you have a link or is that an estimate? Not debating it. I know out of the resolved cases, 4% have died. I was wondering how the difference was accounted for.

As of today, there have been 26,850,170 resolved coronavirus cases of which 1,031,143 have died for a 3.8% rate. In order to get to 0.3%, that would mean that there are 316,864,163 cases that are unaccounted for as 1,031,143 / 343,714,333 = 0.3% unless my math is wrong. I was wondering if you have seen data that suggest that to be the case? We would be at 20% heard immunity in this country. 990,000 deaths here (or that range) It seems plausible.

https://reason.com/2020/09/29/the-lates ... -with-age/
redfield testified to congress that they were wrapping a nationwide study soon and that over 90% of the population was still susceptible.
using that, their number is 0.65%.
cfr chart by age (halfway down, far right best estimate, sources explained in notes under the chart):
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... arios.html

personally, i think the infection is much deeper. but you already knew that and no one's asking me.

Based on your gut?

based on our tests.
and antibodies, cdc's prior seroprevalence tests, range of outcomes, case curves, studies, yada.

we'll see!

[Typical Lax Dad]

I see all the covid-deniers have gotten real quiet now that karma has caught up to the administration. Turns out lying to the country about mask wearing and social distancing might actually come back to haunt the orange mango in chief.

No one is denying the existence of Covid...many of us are just pointing out that the survival rate is 99.7% with no pre-existing conditions. I know several friends that had the virus(antibody test) and didn't even know it. IT'S A VIRUS, its contagious and caution is advised; but the sky is not falling...I know that doesn't fit your obvious political narrative, but for the overwhelming majority, no real cause for concern.

Out of curiosity, where are you getting that 0.3% of people die? Do you have a link or is that an estimate? Not debating it. I know out of the resolved cases, 4% have died. I was wondering how the difference was accounted for.

As of today, there have been 26,850,170 resolved coronavirus cases of which 1,031,143 have died for a 3.8% rate. In order to get to 0.3%, that would mean that there are 316,864,163 cases that are unaccounted for as 1,031,143 / 343,714,333 = 0.3% unless my math is wrong. I was wondering if you have seen data that suggest that to be the case? We would be at 20% heard immunity in this country. 990,000 deaths here (or that range) It seems plausible.

https://reason.com/2020/09/29/the-lates ... -with-age/
redfield testified to congress that they were wrapping a nationwide study soon and that over 90% of the population was still susceptible.
using that, their number is 0.65%.
cfr chart by age (halfway down, far right best estimate, sources explained in notes under the chart):
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... arios.html

personally, i think the infection is much deeper. but you already knew that and no one's asking me.

Based on your gut?

based on our tests.
and antibodies, cdc's prior seroprevalence tests, range of outcomes, case curves, studies, yada.

we'll see!

Ok. That would be a good thing. Thanks.

[MDlaxfan76]

Well, let's be clear that if herd immunity is reached (without a vaccine) at 50% (not the 60-70% experts suggest is necessary), if Redfield is correct then we have another 800k deaths in the US to go. Yeah, yeah, most of those deaths will be of people my age+ and our parents' age. But quite few younger as well.

So, wear a darn mask, buy some time for a vaccine to help get us all to the other side of this.

[wgdsr]

ugh.

[Typical Lax Dad]

ugh.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... rveys.html

Does this indicate the N.Y. has seen the widest dispersement of the virus?

[JoeMauer89]

I see all the covid-deniers have gotten real quiet now that karma has caught up to the administration. Turns out lying to the country about mask wearing and social distancing might actually come back to haunt the orange mango in chief.

No one is denying the existence of Covid...many of us are just pointing out that the survival rate is 99.7% with no pre-existing conditions. I know several friends that had the virus(antibody test) and didn't even know it. IT'S A VIRUS, its contagious and caution is advised; but the sky is not falling...I know that doesn't fit your obvious political narrative, but for the overwhelming majority, no real cause for concern.

Agreed 100%,

You couldn't have said it more clearer. But don't worry you will still be met by intense pushback and questioning of your sanity

JoeMauer89!

[socalref]

At this point I think we just need to go back to Logan's Run and bring back the carousel. That way, everyone will be dead before the COVID can get you. It's the only way to be sure.

[JoeMauer89]

Well, let's be clear that if herd immunity is reached (without a vaccine) at 50% (not the 60-70% experts suggest is necessary), if Redfield is correct then we have another 800k deaths in the US to go. Yeah, yeah, most of those deaths will be of people my age+ and our parents' age. But quite few younger as well.

So, wear a darn mask, buy some time for a vaccine to help get us all to the other side of this.

But who is saying Redfield is correct? He hasn't been the most accurate throughout this whole Pandemic. The organization that he is a leader of has shown a massive failure to communicate with the public and has been quite wrong more than once to date. Every time the organization makes a public statement, the have to clarify it a few days later because they either jump the gun, don't adapt to the real-time conditions on the ground or got stuck thinking like its still March-April. Masks are part of the many mitigation strategies we have, but no one should be shamed and scolded if they don't wear one. There have been plenty that have still contracted the virus while being ardent mask wearers. The phrase, just wear a mask and help us get through this is quite loaded because doing that and doing that alone provides false confidence into thinking that aspect alone will cause this pandemic to end. It's a communicable virus, wash your hands, wear a mask when you are in LARGE groups indoors and use your own discretion in very large groups outside. So many people wear the Masks wrong it is actually provided YOU and others NO protection. And we have taken measures to buy time for various treatments and vaccines. Stop acting like this is something that's easy, we have SHUT down large portions of the United States for 5-6-7 months and what's happening on the ground that many can see with their OWN eyes does not jive with what Fauci/WHO/CDC/etc have been saying. Again, it's not easy for most to stay quarantined in their homes most of their free time, just "waiting for a vaccine" This is an absolutely a serious virus, but you have NO CLUE how it is going to play out in the months to come.



JoeMauer89!

[Typical Lax Dad]

Well, let's be clear that if herd immunity is reached (without a vaccine) at 50% (not the 60-70% experts suggest is necessary), if Redfield is correct then we have another 800k deaths in the US to go. Yeah, yeah, most of those deaths will be of people my age+ and our parents' age. But quite few younger as well.

So, wear a darn mask, buy some time for a vaccine to help get us all to the other side of this.

But who is saying Redfield is correct? He hasn't been the most accurate throughout this whole Pandemic. The organization that he is a leader of has shown a massive failure to communicate with the public and has been quite wrong more than once to date. Every time the organization makes a public statement, the have to clarify it a few days later because they either jump the gun, don't adapt to the real-time conditions on the ground or got stuck thinking like its still March-April. Masks are part of the many mitigation strategies we have, but no one should be shamed and scolded if they don't wear one. There have been plenty that have still contracted the virus while being ardent mask wearers. The phrase, just wear a mask and help us get through this is quite loaded because doing that and doing that alone provides false confidence into thinking that aspect alone will cause this pandemic to end. It's a communicable virus, wash your hands, wear a mask when you are in LARGE groups indoors and use your own discretion in very large groups outside. So many people wear the Masks wrong it is actually provided YOU and others NO protection. And we have taken measures to buy time for various treatments and vaccines. Stop acting like this is something that's easy, we have SHUT down large portions of the United States for 5-6-7 months and what's happening on the ground that many can see with their OWN eyes does not jive with what Fauci/WHO/CDC/etc have been saying. Again, it's not easy for most to stay quarantined in their homes most of their free time, just "waiting for a vaccine" This is an absolutely a serious virus, but you have NO CLUE how it is going to play out in the months to come.



JoeMauer89!

Staying away from people is far more effective than a mask but we can't do that so we wear a mask.