All things CoronaVirus

[MDlaxfan76]

Yes.

[Typical Lax Dad]

It didn’t have to be nearly this bad. There is no way on Earth that a virus should ever be the second leading cause of death in the United States.

Covid-19 is now the second-leading cause of death in the US, just after heart disease, according to the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME).

What happens next with the pandemic largely depends on personal responsibility and how much Americans are willing to fight this battle together.

Already, Covid-19 has killed more people in the US than Americans killed in battle during the five most recent wars combined: the Korean War, the Vietnam War, the Iraq War, the War in Afghanistan and the Persian Gulf War.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/22/health/u ... index.html

I know many support Trump because he’s an ignorant, racist, bigoted, misogynistic piece of trash like them. But is one’s ignorance, racism, bigotry, and misogyny worth the deaths of so many people?

DocBarrister

Their “model” isn’t “accurate” so you can’t trust them. I have yet to see an “accurate” LBO model but Private Equity continues to feast. Sometimes living with directionally accurate is good enough.

[wgdsr]

It didn’t have to be nearly this bad. There is no way on Earth that a virus should ever be the second leading cause of death in the United States.

Covid-19 is now the second-leading cause of death in the US, just after heart disease, according to the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME).

What happens next with the pandemic largely depends on personal responsibility and how much Americans are willing to fight this battle together.

Already, Covid-19 has killed more people in the US than Americans killed in battle during the five most recent wars combined: the Korean War, the Vietnam War, the Iraq War, the War in Afghanistan and the Persian Gulf War.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/22/health/u ... index.html

I know many support Trump because he’s an ignorant, racist, bigoted, misogynistic piece of trash like them. But is one’s ignorance, racism, bigotry, and misogyny worth the deaths of so many people?

DocBarrister

Their “model” isn’t “accurate” so you can’t trust them. I have yet to see an “accurate” LBO model but Private Equity continues to feast. Sometimes living with directionally accurate is good enough.

of course you can trust them, they get more pub than anyone else.
can deaths go down directionally?

as it is, covid-19 has killed more americans than the last 5 most recent wars combined.

[old salt]

How many of the war casualties had comorbidities or were senior citizens ?
For many, how many years lost in life expectancy due to covid ?
Think of all the SocSec & Medicare $$$ saved. Thinning the herd.

[Typical Lax Dad]

It didn’t have to be nearly this bad. There is no way on Earth that a virus should ever be the second leading cause of death in the United States.

Covid-19 is now the second-leading cause of death in the US, just after heart disease, according to the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME).

What happens next with the pandemic largely depends on personal responsibility and how much Americans are willing to fight this battle together.

Already, Covid-19 has killed more people in the US than Americans killed in battle during the five most recent wars combined: the Korean War, the Vietnam War, the Iraq War, the War in Afghanistan and the Persian Gulf War.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/22/health/u ... index.html

I know many support Trump because he’s an ignorant, racist, bigoted, misogynistic piece of trash like them. But is one’s ignorance, racism, bigotry, and misogyny worth the deaths of so many people?

DocBarrister

Their “model” isn’t “accurate” so you can’t trust them. I have yet to see an “accurate” LBO model but Private Equity continues to feast. Sometimes living with directionally accurate is good enough.

of course you can trust them, they get more pub than anyone else.
can deaths go down directionally?

as it is, covid-19 has killed more americans than the last 5 most recent wars combined.

Trust was the wrong word. “Rely” is better word and, as for directionality, there is also a reasonableness factor. I am hoping IHME is way over stated. That would be a good outcome. At the outset, I said anything under a 1% mortality rate is a win. I used Quotes because a “model” is inherently “inaccurate” if 100% is the measuring stick. I am not sure what confidence factor IHME was using but I am sure it wasn’t “the lead pipe cinch factor”. If it’s driving policy, it’s not their fault unless they are expressly working on behalf and at the direction of the United States government.

[Typical Lax Dad]

When I saw that the global numbers showed that 4% of the closed cases resulted in death, it stood to reason that we were worse:

4,528,000
Cases which had an outcome:

4,322,801

(95%) Recovered / Discharged

205,199
(5%) Deaths

[wgdsr]

It didn’t have to be nearly this bad. There is no way on Earth that a virus should ever be the second leading cause of death in the United States.

Covid-19 is now the second-leading cause of death in the US, just after heart disease, according to the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME).

What happens next with the pandemic largely depends on personal responsibility and how much Americans are willing to fight this battle together.

Already, Covid-19 has killed more people in the US than Americans killed in battle during the five most recent wars combined: the Korean War, the Vietnam War, the Iraq War, the War in Afghanistan and the Persian Gulf War.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/22/health/u ... index.html

I know many support Trump because he’s an ignorant, racist, bigoted, misogynistic piece of trash like them. But is one’s ignorance, racism, bigotry, and misogyny worth the deaths of so many people?

DocBarrister

Their “model” isn’t “accurate” so you can’t trust them. I have yet to see an “accurate” LBO model but Private Equity continues to feast. Sometimes living with directionally accurate is good enough.

of course you can trust them, they get more pub than anyone else.
can deaths go down directionally?

as it is, covid-19 has killed more americans than the last 5 most recent wars combined.

Trust was the wrong word. “Rely” is better word and as for directionality, there is a reasonableness factor.

their encapsulation now finally incorporates at least the words some prior coronavirus immunity, nothing about t cells or potentially faulty seroprevalence data although it's heavily relied upon... references social media... says most testing is in symptomatic individuals... i could go on --- but let's just say their analysis, conclusions, extrapolations look alarmingly simplistic and elementary, not to mention subjective and poorly sourced.

sourcing isn't easy, but... for me... they don't take a lot of the science and epidemiology that has transpired out there to date as much of a guide. on this latest "prediction", i will admit i haven't been able to figure out how they come up with this huge end-of-year spike, so shooting it down makes that more difficult. so i default to how wrong they've been to date on the modeling i've seen them do and what it looks like they are considering and drawing conclusions from. whatever it is they don't like in november and december, be good if they're wrong.

[Typical Lax Dad]

It didn’t have to be nearly this bad. There is no way on Earth that a virus should ever be the second leading cause of death in the United States.

Covid-19 is now the second-leading cause of death in the US, just after heart disease, according to the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME).

What happens next with the pandemic largely depends on personal responsibility and how much Americans are willing to fight this battle together.

Already, Covid-19 has killed more people in the US than Americans killed in battle during the five most recent wars combined: the Korean War, the Vietnam War, the Iraq War, the War in Afghanistan and the Persian Gulf War.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/22/health/u ... index.html

I know many support Trump because he’s an ignorant, racist, bigoted, misogynistic piece of trash like them. But is one’s ignorance, racism, bigotry, and misogyny worth the deaths of so many people?

DocBarrister

Their “model” isn’t “accurate” so you can’t trust them. I have yet to see an “accurate” LBO model but Private Equity continues to feast. Sometimes living with directionally accurate is good enough.

of course you can trust them, they get more pub than anyone else.
can deaths go down directionally?

as it is, covid-19 has killed more americans than the last 5 most recent wars combined.

Trust was the wrong word. “Rely” is better word and as for directionality, there is a reasonableness factor.

their encapsulation now finally incorporates at least the words some prior coronavirus immunity, nothing about t cells or potentially faulty seroprevalence data although it's heavily relied upon... references social media... says most testing is in symptomatic individuals... i could go on --- but let's just say their analysis, conclusions, extrapolations look alarmingly simplistic and elementary, not to mention subjective and poorly sourced.

sourcing isn't easy, but... for me... they don't take a lot of the science and epidemiology that has transpired out there to date as much of a guide. on this latest "prediction", i will admit i haven't been able to figure out how they come up with this huge end-of-year spike, so shooting it down makes that more difficult. so i default to how wrong they've been to date on the modeling i've seen them do and what it looks like they are considering and drawing conclusions from. whatever it is they don't like in november and december, be good if they're wrong.

You mean like this: https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M20-1565

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2016822

Does prediction = model output?

[Peter Brown]

When I saw that the global numbers showed that 4% of the closed cases resulted in death, it stood to reason that we were worse:

4,528,000
Cases which had an outcome:

4,322,801

(95%) Recovered / Discharged

205,199
(5%) Deaths

Let me know when a cackling Fanlax Dem yenta drops from this board; until then, no one I know has had it or obviously died from it. Hospitals are blaming Covid for any death out there now; Kyle Rittenhouse caused two Covid deaths. Hopkins will blame Covid for sucking again next Spring.

[Typical Lax Dad]

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41599-020-00553-4

Boy those U Dub scientists are stupid

In the US, the White House coronavirus task force announced in early April that they project between 100,000 and 240,000 deaths in the country based on an in-house model and the model developed by University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) (Bump, 2020). The accuracy of these models has been reported to be extensively discussed by policy-makers and scientists (Wan et al., 2020), and since projections change as new data is fed into the model, the debate about accuracy has been further sparked off (Tufekci, 2020; Jewell et al., 2020).

[wgdsr]

It didn’t have to be nearly this bad. There is no way on Earth that a virus should ever be the second leading cause of death in the United States.

Covid-19 is now the second-leading cause of death in the US, just after heart disease, according to the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME).

What happens next with the pandemic largely depends on personal responsibility and how much Americans are willing to fight this battle together.

Already, Covid-19 has killed more people in the US than Americans killed in battle during the five most recent wars combined: the Korean War, the Vietnam War, the Iraq War, the War in Afghanistan and the Persian Gulf War.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/22/health/u ... index.html

I know many support Trump because he’s an ignorant, racist, bigoted, misogynistic piece of trash like them. But is one’s ignorance, racism, bigotry, and misogyny worth the deaths of so many people?

DocBarrister

Their “model” isn’t “accurate” so you can’t trust them. I have yet to see an “accurate” LBO model but Private Equity continues to feast. Sometimes living with directionally accurate is good enough.

of course you can trust them, they get more pub than anyone else.
can deaths go down directionally?

as it is, covid-19 has killed more americans than the last 5 most recent wars combined.

Trust was the wrong word. “Rely” is better word and as for directionality, there is a reasonableness factor.

their encapsulation now finally incorporates at least the words some prior coronavirus immunity, nothing about t cells or potentially faulty seroprevalence data although it's heavily relied upon... references social media... says most testing is in symptomatic individuals... i could go on --- but let's just say their analysis, conclusions, extrapolations look alarmingly simplistic and elementary, not to mention subjective and poorly sourced.

sourcing isn't easy, but... for me... they don't take a lot of the science and epidemiology that has transpired out there to date as much of a guide. on this latest "prediction", i will admit i haven't been able to figure out how they come up with this huge end-of-year spike, so shooting it down makes that more difficult. so i default to how wrong they've been to date on the modeling i've seen them do and what it looks like they are considering and drawing conclusions from. whatever it is they don't like in november and december, be good if they're wrong.

You mean like this: https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M20-1565

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2016822

Does prediction = model output?

thanks for those. what it all means to me is... garbage in (novel virus, uncertainty cubed, limitations, bad and incomplete and faulty inputs) results in garbage out. so not just useless (in my opinion), but at least potentially damaging if marketed. as ihme clearly has been.

here's from the group that they rely on, it looks like heavily, to judge mask wearing across the country... from a daily facebook survey. which they market heavily to their numbers depression. it's a world map from their survey on % of people with covid-like symptoms.
https://covidmap.umd.edu/map/

does that look accurate overall?

[Typical Lax Dad]

It didn’t have to be nearly this bad. There is no way on Earth that a virus should ever be the second leading cause of death in the United States.

Covid-19 is now the second-leading cause of death in the US, just after heart disease, according to the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME).

What happens next with the pandemic largely depends on personal responsibility and how much Americans are willing to fight this battle together.

Already, Covid-19 has killed more people in the US than Americans killed in battle during the five most recent wars combined: the Korean War, the Vietnam War, the Iraq War, the War in Afghanistan and the Persian Gulf War.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/22/health/u ... index.html

I know many support Trump because he’s an ignorant, racist, bigoted, misogynistic piece of trash like them. But is one’s ignorance, racism, bigotry, and misogyny worth the deaths of so many people?

DocBarrister

Their “model” isn’t “accurate” so you can’t trust them. I have yet to see an “accurate” LBO model but Private Equity continues to feast. Sometimes living with directionally accurate is good enough.

of course you can trust them, they get more pub than anyone else.
can deaths go down directionally?

as it is, covid-19 has killed more americans than the last 5 most recent wars combined.

Trust was the wrong word. “Rely” is better word and as for directionality, there is a reasonableness factor.

their encapsulation now finally incorporates at least the words some prior coronavirus immunity, nothing about t cells or potentially faulty seroprevalence data although it's heavily relied upon... references social media... says most testing is in symptomatic individuals... i could go on --- but let's just say their analysis, conclusions, extrapolations look alarmingly simplistic and elementary, not to mention subjective and poorly sourced.

sourcing isn't easy, but... for me... they don't take a lot of the science and epidemiology that has transpired out there to date as much of a guide. on this latest "prediction", i will admit i haven't been able to figure out how they come up with this huge end-of-year spike, so shooting it down makes that more difficult. so i default to how wrong they've been to date on the modeling i've seen them do and what it looks like they are considering and drawing conclusions from. whatever it is they don't like in november and december, be good if they're wrong.

You mean like this: https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M20-1565

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2016822

Does prediction = model output?

thanks for those. what it all means to me is... garbage in (novel virus, uncertainty cubed, limitations, bad and incomplete and faulty inputs) results in garbage out. so not just useless (in my opinion), but at least potentially damaging if marketed. as ihme clearly has been.

here's from the group that they rely on, it looks like heavily, to judge mask wearing across the country... from a daily facebook survey. which they market heavily to their numbers depression. it's a world map from their survey on % of people with covid-like symptoms.
https://covidmap.umd.edu/map/

does that look accurate overall?

Having for what seems like a lifetime running and analyzing models, I take them with a grain of salt. I hope nobody in government assumes that the information has a lead pipe cinch confidence factor. Is that group marketing or publishing it’s data?

A mask is Stupid https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2662657/

[wgdsr]

It didn’t have to be nearly this bad. There is no way on Earth that a virus should ever be the second leading cause of death in the United States.

Covid-19 is now the second-leading cause of death in the US, just after heart disease, according to the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME).

What happens next with the pandemic largely depends on personal responsibility and how much Americans are willing to fight this battle together.

Already, Covid-19 has killed more people in the US than Americans killed in battle during the five most recent wars combined: the Korean War, the Vietnam War, the Iraq War, the War in Afghanistan and the Persian Gulf War.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/22/health/u ... index.html

I know many support Trump because he’s an ignorant, racist, bigoted, misogynistic piece of trash like them. But is one’s ignorance, racism, bigotry, and misogyny worth the deaths of so many people?

DocBarrister

Their “model” isn’t “accurate” so you can’t trust them. I have yet to see an “accurate” LBO model but Private Equity continues to feast. Sometimes living with directionally accurate is good enough.

of course you can trust them, they get more pub than anyone else.
can deaths go down directionally?

as it is, covid-19 has killed more americans than the last 5 most recent wars combined.

Trust was the wrong word. “Rely” is better word and as for directionality, there is a reasonableness factor.

their encapsulation now finally incorporates at least the words some prior coronavirus immunity, nothing about t cells or potentially faulty seroprevalence data although it's heavily relied upon... references social media... says most testing is in symptomatic individuals... i could go on --- but let's just say their analysis, conclusions, extrapolations look alarmingly simplistic and elementary, not to mention subjective and poorly sourced.

sourcing isn't easy, but... for me... they don't take a lot of the science and epidemiology that has transpired out there to date as much of a guide. on this latest "prediction", i will admit i haven't been able to figure out how they come up with this huge end-of-year spike, so shooting it down makes that more difficult. so i default to how wrong they've been to date on the modeling i've seen them do and what it looks like they are considering and drawing conclusions from. whatever it is they don't like in november and december, be good if they're wrong.

You mean like this: https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M20-1565

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2016822

Does prediction = model output?

thanks for those. what it all means to me is... garbage in (novel virus, uncertainty cubed, limitations, bad and incomplete and faulty inputs) results in garbage out. so not just useless (in my opinion), but at least potentially damaging if marketed. as ihme clearly has been.

here's from the group that they rely on, it looks like heavily, to judge mask wearing across the country... from a daily facebook survey. which they market heavily to their numbers depression. it's a world map from their survey on % of people with covid-like symptoms.
https://covidmap.umd.edu/map/

does that look accurate overall?

Having for what seems like a lifetime running and analyzing models, I take them with a grain of salt. I hope nobody in government assumes that the information has a lead pipe cinch confidence factor. Is that group marketing or publishing it’s data?

A mask is Stupid https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2662657/

i'd imagine they're doing both.
does it matter who is doing the marketing?

if you bought this group's lbo model, grain of salt or not you'd fire them. in my opinion!

edit: who said wearing a mask was stupid? i thought we were discussing how models get to their thing?

[Typical Lax Dad]

It didn’t have to be nearly this bad. There is no way on Earth that a virus should ever be the second leading cause of death in the United States.

Covid-19 is now the second-leading cause of death in the US, just after heart disease, according to the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME).

What happens next with the pandemic largely depends on personal responsibility and how much Americans are willing to fight this battle together.

Already, Covid-19 has killed more people in the US than Americans killed in battle during the five most recent wars combined: the Korean War, the Vietnam War, the Iraq War, the War in Afghanistan and the Persian Gulf War.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/22/health/u ... index.html

I know many support Trump because he’s an ignorant, racist, bigoted, misogynistic piece of trash like them. But is one’s ignorance, racism, bigotry, and misogyny worth the deaths of so many people?

DocBarrister

Their “model” isn’t “accurate” so you can’t trust them. I have yet to see an “accurate” LBO model but Private Equity continues to feast. Sometimes living with directionally accurate is good enough.

of course you can trust them, they get more pub than anyone else.
can deaths go down directionally?

as it is, covid-19 has killed more americans than the last 5 most recent wars combined.

Trust was the wrong word. “Rely” is better word and as for directionality, there is a reasonableness factor.

their encapsulation now finally incorporates at least the words some prior coronavirus immunity, nothing about t cells or potentially faulty seroprevalence data although it's heavily relied upon... references social media... says most testing is in symptomatic individuals... i could go on --- but let's just say their analysis, conclusions, extrapolations look alarmingly simplistic and elementary, not to mention subjective and poorly sourced.

sourcing isn't easy, but... for me... they don't take a lot of the science and epidemiology that has transpired out there to date as much of a guide. on this latest "prediction", i will admit i haven't been able to figure out how they come up with this huge end-of-year spike, so shooting it down makes that more difficult. so i default to how wrong they've been to date on the modeling i've seen them do and what it looks like they are considering and drawing conclusions from. whatever it is they don't like in november and december, be good if they're wrong.

You mean like this: https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M20-1565

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2016822

Does prediction = model output?

thanks for those. what it all means to me is... garbage in (novel virus, uncertainty cubed, limitations, bad and incomplete and faulty inputs) results in garbage out. so not just useless (in my opinion), but at least potentially damaging if marketed. as ihme clearly has been.

here's from the group that they rely on, it looks like heavily, to judge mask wearing across the country... from a daily facebook survey. which they market heavily to their numbers depression. it's a world map from their survey on % of people with covid-like symptoms.
https://covidmap.umd.edu/map/

does that look accurate overall?

Having for what seems like a lifetime running and analyzing models, I take them with a grain of salt. I hope nobody in government assumes that the information has a lead pipe cinch confidence factor. Is that group marketing or publishing it’s data?

i'd imagine they're doing both.
does it matter who is doing the marketing?

if you bought this group's lbo model, grain of salt or not you'd fire them. in my opinion!

Who is IHME marketing their model to and how are they compensated....as for mask, a lot of the variability in their model is with/without masks. Are you in favor of no modeling at all? ( BTW, you brought up Masks before I did. It seems you were questioning the need for them in some places).

[MDlaxfan76]

It didn’t have to be nearly this bad. There is no way on Earth that a virus should ever be the second leading cause of death in the United States.

Covid-19 is now the second-leading cause of death in the US, just after heart disease, according to the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME).

What happens next with the pandemic largely depends on personal responsibility and how much Americans are willing to fight this battle together.

Already, Covid-19 has killed more people in the US than Americans killed in battle during the five most recent wars combined: the Korean War, the Vietnam War, the Iraq War, the War in Afghanistan and the Persian Gulf War.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/22/health/u ... index.html

I know many support Trump because he’s an ignorant, racist, bigoted, misogynistic piece of trash like them. But is one’s ignorance, racism, bigotry, and misogyny worth the deaths of so many people?

DocBarrister

Their “model” isn’t “accurate” so you can’t trust them. I have yet to see an “accurate” LBO model but Private Equity continues to feast. Sometimes living with directionally accurate is good enough.

of course you can trust them, they get more pub than anyone else.
can deaths go down directionally?

as it is, covid-19 has killed more americans than the last 5 most recent wars combined.

Trust was the wrong word. “Rely” is better word and as for directionality, there is a reasonableness factor.

their encapsulation now finally incorporates at least the words some prior coronavirus immunity, nothing about t cells or potentially faulty seroprevalence data although it's heavily relied upon... references social media... says most testing is in symptomatic individuals... i could go on --- but let's just say their analysis, conclusions, extrapolations look alarmingly simplistic and elementary, not to mention subjective and poorly sourced.

sourcing isn't easy, but... for me... they don't take a lot of the science and epidemiology that has transpired out there to date as much of a guide. on this latest "prediction", i will admit i haven't been able to figure out how they come up with this huge end-of-year spike, so shooting it down makes that more difficult. so i default to how wrong they've been to date on the modeling i've seen them do and what it looks like they are considering and drawing conclusions from. whatever it is they don't like in november and december, be good if they're wrong.

You mean like this: https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M20-1565

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2016822

Does prediction = model output?

thanks for those. what it all means to me is... garbage in (novel virus, uncertainty cubed, limitations, bad and incomplete and faulty inputs) results in garbage out. so not just useless (in my opinion), but at least potentially damaging if marketed. as ihme clearly has been.

here's from the group that they rely on, it looks like heavily, to judge mask wearing across the country... from a daily facebook survey. which they market heavily to their numbers depression. it's a world map from their survey on % of people with covid-like symptoms.
https://covidmap.umd.edu/map/

does that look accurate overall?

Having for what seems like a lifetime running and analyzing models, I take them with a grain of salt. I hope nobody in government assumes that the information has a lead pipe cinch confidence factor. Is that group marketing or publishing it’s data?

i'd imagine they're doing both.
does it matter who is doing the marketing?

if you bought this group's lbo model, grain of salt or not you'd fire them. in my opinion!

Who is IHME marketing their model to and how are they compensated....as for mask, a lot of the variability in their model is with/without masks. Are you in favor of no modeling at all?

I'm puzzled, wgdsr, what exactly is your beef with their performance to date?

They had the US going to near zero by August...IF...restrictions were maintained universally through the end of June...they did not predict those restrictions one way or another, they simply predicted what the results would be if social distancing was maintained. As time has passed, they've modified to reflect actual and announced patterns of behavior and spread rates.

I don't see the beef...they predicted too low? And didn't factor in governmental and social stupidity sufficiently?

Or are you thinking they've over shot in reaction?

What's going on with their numbers, far as we in the public can tell, is a set of assumptions about the announced reopenings, school openings component to spread, the patterns of compliance levels with masks and other social distancing, the differences of being inside versus outside, etc. There's a lot that may not play out the way they have assumed in all those factors, but their model is actually pretty simple when you boil it down.

More people in close proximity without sufficient mitigation increases spread. Increased spread results in more infections that become serious, and ultimately some deadly. Not a terribly complex model, but reliability is predominantly impacted by our actual behaviors more than anything else.

And they adjust periodically as new information comes in differently than their assumptions.

Hope we do better than the model predicts, but our current behavior trajectory is not very reassuring.

But factors could change the results that are not in the model, for better or for worse.

[DocBarrister]

How many of the war casualties had comorbidities or were senior citizens ?
For many, how many years lost in life expectancy due to covid ?
Think of all the SocSec & Medicare $$$ saved. Thinning the herd.

Normally I would dismiss a post like this as sarcasm, parody, simplistic trolling, or even a joke.

However, I have never seen you able to grasp the nuances and subtleties necessary for parody. Your thinking is too concrete to offer sarcasm. You don’t really have the sense of humor to be a knowing troll or to tell a joke.

So, I can only surmise that you seriously mean what you say here.

Needless to say, it’s a callous, disgusting, and absolutely repugnant post.

DocBarrister

[Typical Lax Dad]

The IHME projections were used by the Trump administration in developing national guidelines to mitigate the outbreak. Now, they are reportedly influencing White House thinking on how and when to “re-open” the country, as President Trump announced a blueprint for on Thursday.

The chief reason the IHME projections worry some experts, Etzioni said, is that “the fact that they overshot will be used to suggest that the government response prevented an even greater catastrophe, when in fact the predictions were shaky in the first place.” IHME initially projected 38,000 to 162,000 U.S. deaths. The White House combined those estimates with others to warn of 100,000 to 240,000 potential deaths.

[Typical Lax Dad]

How many of the war casualties had comorbidities or were senior citizens ?
For many, how many years lost in life expectancy due to covid ?
Think of all the SocSec & Medicare $$$ saved. Thinning the herd.

Normally I would dismiss a post like this as sarcasm, parody, simplistic trolling, or even a joke.

However, I have never seen you able to grasp the nuances and subtleties necessary for parody. Your thinking is too concrete to offer sarcasm. You don’t really have the sense of humor to be a knowing troll or to tell a joke.

So, I can only surmise that you seriously mean what you say here.

Needless to say, it’s a callous, disgusting, and absolutely repugnant post.

DocBarrister

Those who die of COVID-19 are older and have on average fewer years of remaining life expectancy than the average person (11.7 y instead of 45.8 y).

[jhu72]

What's the fatality rate at these days?
What about serious case rate?
Is it waning?
Local MD colleges are not shutting anything down with sysmptoms- or requiring a test right now. They just make the student/faculty stay home for 2 weeks and return after your quarantine.

... in the US there are currently 5 deaths per 95 recoveries, approx. 5% of resolved cases.

In nys just yesterday there were 754 new cases. That means using your data approx, there should be 37 deaths out of this and 716 resolved recoveries. NYS has not had a death total, that I can remember from Andy's tweets, above 10 for quite some time. Do you think they might be underestimating/reporting the number of resolved cases? Yes I know there is a lag but the number of new cases has been fairly consistent for quite some time. Right around 1% of testing.

The quoted numbers are since the beginning of the pandemic (all time). It is lower now depending on the period you choose to look at. Don't wait too long. When I look at the Hopkins data I see both new cases and deaths increasing again. We are not out of this yet. You know the UofW prediction. Whether you believe their quoted numbers or not, the direction of the prediction is absolutely clear.

[Typical Lax Dad]

What's the fatality rate at these days?
What about serious case rate?
Is it waning?
Local MD colleges are not shutting anything down with sysmptoms- or requiring a test right now. They just make the student/faculty stay home for 2 weeks and return after your quarantine.

... in the US there are currently 5 deaths per 95 recoveries, approx. 5% of resolved cases.

In nys just yesterday there were 754 new cases. That means using your data approx, there should be 37 deaths out of this and 716 resolved recoveries. NYS has not had a death total, that I can remember from Andy's tweets, above 10 for quite some time. Do you think they might be underestimating/reporting the number of resolved cases? Yes I know there is a lag but the number of new cases has been fairly consistent for quite some time. Right around 1% of testing.

The quoted numbers are since the beginning of the pandemic (all time). It is lower now depending on the period you choose to look at. Don't wait too long. When I look at the Hopkins data I see both new cases and deaths increasing again. We are not out of this yet. You know the UofW prediction. Whether you believe their quoted numbers or not, the direction of the prediction is absolutely clear.

This coronavirus model keeps being wrong. Why are we still listening to it? A model that the White House has relied on has come under fire for its flawed projections.

You know what those guys could not model? Americans actin’ a fool!