All things CoronaVirus

[jhu72]

People are computing how many would die for the US to achieve natural herd immunity (in the loose sense)

No need for math and guesswork

FL gives us the best guesstimate

FL will achieve herd immunity with ~17k dead in a population of 20 million

That’s ~280k in the US

Florida’s Covid problem will be more or less permanently over well before the end of 2020 and they’ll be living without substantial restrictions,

NY’s Covid problem won’t be over until after mass vaccinations, if they even work, and they’ll be living with substantial restrictions.

Vote accordingly.

Tell us more. How do you arrive at this number? Your ass must really hurt.

[Typical Lax Dad]

Trump Admin Reverses Politicized Testing Guidance After Interference Exposed

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/muckraker ... ce-exposed

The Trump administration reversed itself on a key effort to politicize the response to COVID-19, reversing a scientifically unfounded recommendation that asymptomatic people in contact with those infected with the virus not get tested.

The Centers for Disease Control made the change on its website without fanfare after the New York Times reported Thursday evening that political officials at the Department of Health and Human Services had made the change against the express wishes of CDC scientists.

Virtually no other agency or organization took the Trump administration’s advice that people exposed to COVID-19 should not get tested if they’re not presenting symptoms. Evidence that the virus can transmit asymptomatically has been around for months, provoking disgust in the scientific and public health community at the agency’s guidance, which seemed to be directed towards reducing the number of tests overall.

From the outset, Trump administration officials pushed back on the idea that the guidance had been issued for political reasons or with the intent of reducing the number of tests – a goal that President Trump has repeatedly pushed for.

“Conceptually, we don’t believe the number of tests should go down. Conceptually, we believe the number of tests will go up,” said HHS Assistant Secretary for Health Brett Giroir in a press call last month.

Giroir added at the time that the guidance change had been approved by the CDC.

“Everyone signed off on it before it got to a place where the political leadership would have even seen it,” Giroir added.

Those explanations immediately unraveled, however, in part due to Giroir telling journalists that the change had undergone approval from Dr. Tony Fauci and others at a late August meeting. On the day the meeting was held, Dr. Fauci was in surgery to remove a polyp on his vocal cords.

Since then, the guidance change has contributed to a sinking but overwhelming feeling in the scientific and public health communities that Trump administration officials have contorted the CDC, the nation’s premier public health agency, into an arm of his re-election campaign.

Friday’s guidance change itself states what science has long understood: “Due to the significance of asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic transmission,” those who have been in close contact with an infected person should be tested for COVID-19.

Estimates vary on what percentage of COVID cases occur asymptomatically, though estimates range to as many as half. One study of a quarantined town in northern Italy found that more than 40 percent of COVID-19 infections in the town showed no symptoms.

But the change came after the New York Times reported widespread discontent at the CDC with the guidance. One official told the paper that the “policy does not reflect what many people at the CDC feel should be the policy.”

Officials told the paper that the guidance had been posted to the CDC’s website without approval by agency scientists.

The efforts to manipulate the country’s fight against COVID into a re-election prop extend beyond the faulty testing guidance. Michael Caputo and an aide reportedly spent much of the past five months terrorizing CDC staff out of saying anything remotely critical or contradictory of President Trump, for example.

When you get a flu shot, do you also get a V-19 test? If not, why not?

TEST EVERYONE......

You don’t need a test. You are healthy and not going to get sick or die from it. Why do you even care?

[Peter Brown]

People are computing how many would die for the US to achieve natural herd immunity (in the loose sense)

No need for math and guesswork

FL gives us the best guesstimate

FL will achieve herd immunity with ~17k dead in a population of 20 million

That’s ~280k in the US

Florida’s Covid problem will be more or less permanently over well before the end of 2020 and they’ll be living without substantial restrictions,

NY’s Covid problem won’t be over until after mass vaccinations, if they even work, and they’ll be living with substantial restrictions.

Vote accordingly.

Tell us more. How do you arrive at this number? Your ass must really hurt.

Florida’s herd immunity strategy is in many ways more robust than Sweden’s. Watching Florida crush Covid with population immunity is phenomenally powerful and interesting.

Florida opened bars at 50% capacity a week ago and Covid hospitalizations continue to decline.

Now hospitalized in Florida: 2,383
(source: the covid tracking project)

[Typical Lax Dad]

People are computing how many would die for the US to achieve natural herd immunity (in the loose sense)

No need for math and guesswork

FL gives us the best guesstimate

FL will achieve herd immunity with ~17k dead in a population of 20 million

That’s ~280k in the US

Florida’s Covid problem will be more or less permanently over well before the end of 2020 and they’ll be living without substantial restrictions,

NY’s Covid problem won’t be over until after mass vaccinations, if they even work, and they’ll be living with substantial restrictions.

Vote accordingly.

Tell us more. How do you arrive at this number? Your ass must really hurt.

Florida’s herd immunity strategy is in many ways more robust than Sweden’s. Watching Florida crush Covid with population immunity is phenomenally powerful and interesting.

Florida opened bars at 50% capacity a week ago and Covid hospitalizations continue to decline.

Now hospitalized in Florida: 2,383
(source: the covid tracking project)

Yep Pete. In one weeks time, you should see a spike in hospitalizations. No spike after a week of opening up means you got past it ok. Thanks for the heads up buddy!

[njbill]

So, Dr. Pete, what is your assumption on the length of immunity which undergirds your “herd mentality” theory?

Also, is Florida building walls around Georgia, Alabama, and Mississippi to keep out all those infected crackers? Maybe put in a call to Steve Bannon to see if he has any excess wall funds available for you to use.

[Typical Lax Dad]

For those interested, Texas has moved into 3rd behind New Jersey in total deaths, passing Californian now in 4th, waiting to be passed by Florida. Florida leads in deaths today. Texas will likely move past New Jersey within the next 30 days. Florida has a good chance of passing California in the same time frame.

Also looks to me like the good news is largely over for the time being. Trendline for the US appears to be turning up, as predicted by the University of Washington model. Next stop, 400K dead by New Years. Average of 2000 dead per day over the rest of the year. MAGA!

why not 500 thousand by new years? -- because that is not what the UofW model says. For those not paying attention, their model has done pretty well in the prognostication department. We'll see how well they do the end of the year.
or a million?
think big!!!!

wow, you were out for a while... back with a bang after being somewhat discerning prior.

YOU....are the problem.72....along with all the idiots in the medical community. UofW nailed nothing. Easy to be right when you have a way back machine

FREE NON STOP FLIGHTS TO CAPE TOWN. MASKS NOT REQUIRED. DEPARTING FLORIDA, TEXAS and CALIFORNIA

Reserve your seat!! Catch some waves! Leave the gaiter at home!

[Peter Brown]

So, Dr. Pete, what is your assumption on the length of immunity which undergirds your “herd mentality” theory?

Also, is Florida building walls around Georgia, Alabama, and Mississippi to keep out all those infected crackers? Maybe put in a call to Steve Bannon to see if he has any excess wall funds available for you to use.

States like Florida are conclusively proving those in favor of general lockdowns in the US wrong. NYC schools and restaurants are still closed, while FL increases socialization with hospitalizations in rapid decline. Schools open. Bars open.

[Typical Lax Dad]

Over last 48 days:

NY just over 1,000 deaths
Florida just over 6,000 deaths

Florida is doing it right!

[njbill]

Then why is Florida doing so poorly, Pete?

And you didn't answer my question about immunity.

[Typical Lax Dad]

Then why is Florida doing so poorly, Pete?

And you didn't answer my question about immunity.

Florida is doing great! Petedito says so.

[Peter Brown]

Then why is Florida doing so poorly, Pete?

And you didn't answer my question about immunity.

“Poorly”? Lol. Hospitalizations continue to drop like a rock.

You boys focus on one thing, neglecting the rest of the story.

Good luck with that economy of yours! And your restrictions ain’t ever going away. Bankruptcy and suicidal cadavers are no way to go through life.

Meanwhile, we’re basically fully open. No mask mandates state wide.

[Typical Lax Dad]

Then why is Florida doing so poorly, Pete?

And you didn't answer my question about immunity.

“Poorly”? Lol. Hospitalizations continue to drop like a rock.

You boys focus on one thing, neglecting the rest of the story.

Good luck with that economy of yours! And your restrictions ain’t ever going away. Bankruptcy and suicidal cadavers are no way to go through life.

Meanwhile, we’re basically fully open. No mask mandates state wide.

Florida is humming!

https://www.bankrate.com/mortgages/hous ... hip-index/

[jhu72]

Yup, Florida is doing just great compared to everyone else. They still are among the daily leaders in death in the US, day after day. If we extrapolate Florida's Friday death toll across the entire US, we would have lost 2450 people yesterday. Actual deaths in the US yesterday were 323 compared to Florida's 147. Florida represented 45% of the deaths in the US yesterday.

If we extrapolate to the world's population (7.68 billion), 56,500 people would have died yesterday across the globe while the actual number was only 3701. Florida is one of the world's COVID hot spots and that is not a good thing.

[RedFromMI]

As usual, PB is spouting mostly nonsense about Florida and COVID-19.

Let's look at some numbers (from www.covidexitstrategy.com today):

Case trend (2 wk): -31% This number is good, but based on some huge numbers to start with.
Rolling 2wk case numbers: 9.7k down to 6.7k
Test positive rate: 17% of what it should be at 17% positive tests - too many positive tests (should be less than 3%)
80% ICU occupancy (too high)
311 new cases per million per day (worst in the country!)

Above makes the state rated uncontrolled spread.


FL gets a good score on how the disease is spreading:

But rolling death average highest in country as well, and stable at about 170 per day.

Worst class grades for able to handle spread (resources are strained):

80% ICU occupancy (also above)
61% bed occupancy (normal)
Only Nevada and Mississippi have more hospitalized per million.

Worse case grades for testing enough as well...

Overall, a pretty mixed bag - cases going down too slowly, and testing is way behind so it becomes impossible to catch a new outbreak before it spirals back up.

[Peter Brown]

As usual, PB is spouting mostly nonsense about Florida and COVID-19.

Let's look at some numbers (from www.covidexitstrategy.com today):

Case trend (2 wk): -31% This number is good, but based on some huge numbers to start with.
Rolling 2wk case numbers: 9.7k down to 6.7k
Test positive rate: 17% of what it should be at 17% positive tests - too many positive tests (should be less than 3%)
80% ICU occupancy (too high)
311 new cases per million per day (worst in the country!)

Above makes the state rated uncontrolled spread.


FL gets a good score on how the disease is spreading:

But rolling death average highest in country as well, and stable at about 170 per day.

Worst class grades for able to handle spread (resources are strained):

80% ICU occupancy (also above)
61% bed occupancy (normal)
Only Nevada and Mississippi have more hospitalized per million.

Worse case grades for testing enough as well...

Overall, a pretty mixed bag - cases going down too slowly, and testing is way behind so it becomes impossible to catch a new outbreak before it spirals back up.

You fellas seem to missing an incredibly important input.

Florida is and has been open all along. With your hysterical fears about Covid, everyone in Florida ought to be dead by now. And while we are building herd immunity, the numbnuts in your state will keep you from ever reopening in any meaningful way.

Good luck!

[Typical Lax Dad]

As usual, PB is spouting mostly nonsense about Florida and COVID-19.

Let's look at some numbers (from www.covidexitstrategy.com today):

Case trend (2 wk): -31% This number is good, but based on some huge numbers to start with.
Rolling 2wk case numbers: 9.7k down to 6.7k
Test positive rate: 17% of what it should be at 17% positive tests - too many positive tests (should be less than 3%)
80% ICU occupancy (too high)
311 new cases per million per day (worst in the country!)

Above makes the state rated uncontrolled spread.


FL gets a good score on how the disease is spreading:

But rolling death average highest in country as well, and stable at about 170 per day.

Worst class grades for able to handle spread (resources are strained):

80% ICU occupancy (also above)
61% bed occupancy (normal)
Only Nevada and Mississippi have more hospitalized per million.

Worse case grades for testing enough as well...

Overall, a pretty mixed bag - cases going down too slowly, and testing is way behind so it becomes impossible to catch a new outbreak before it spirals back up.

You fellas seem to missing an incredibly important input.

Florida is and has been open all along. With your hysterical fears about Covid, everyone in Florida ought to be dead by now. And while we are building herd immunity, the numbnuts in your state will keep you from ever reopening in any meaningful way.

Good luck!

I was in Manhattan last Friday. A lot of people out and about. Outside dining was packed. Some schools opened up this past week....as usual, Petedito knows not of what he speaks...

This is what you have to look forward to!

https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/19/europe/e ... index.html

[Peter Brown]

As usual, PB is spouting mostly nonsense about Florida and COVID-19.

Let's look at some numbers (from www.covidexitstrategy.com today):

Case trend (2 wk): -31% This number is good, but based on some huge numbers to start with.
Rolling 2wk case numbers: 9.7k down to 6.7k
Test positive rate: 17% of what it should be at 17% positive tests - too many positive tests (should be less than 3%)
80% ICU occupancy (too high)
311 new cases per million per day (worst in the country!)

Above makes the state rated uncontrolled spread.


FL gets a good score on how the disease is spreading:

But rolling death average highest in country as well, and stable at about 170 per day.

Worst class grades for able to handle spread (resources are strained):

80% ICU occupancy (also above)
61% bed occupancy (normal)
Only Nevada and Mississippi have more hospitalized per million.

Worse case grades for testing enough as well...

Overall, a pretty mixed bag - cases going down too slowly, and testing is way behind so it becomes impossible to catch a new outbreak before it spirals back up.

You fellas seem to missing an incredibly important input.

Florida is and has been open all along. With your hysterical fears about Covid, everyone in Florida ought to be dead by now. And while we are building herd immunity, the numbnuts in your state will keep you from ever reopening in any meaningful way.

Good luck!

I was in Manhattan last Friday. A lot of people out and about. Outside dining was packed. Some schools opened up this past week....as usual, Petedito knows not of what he speaks...

This is what you have to look forward to!

https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/19/europe/e ... index.html

TLD:

DC910379-DF5C-4674-9DB4-E33F07D63A36.jpeg (41.78 KiB) Viewed 1033 times

[Typical Lax Dad]

As usual, PB is spouting mostly nonsense about Florida and COVID-19.

Let's look at some numbers (from www.covidexitstrategy.com today):

Case trend (2 wk): -31% This number is good, but based on some huge numbers to start with.
Rolling 2wk case numbers: 9.7k down to 6.7k
Test positive rate: 17% of what it should be at 17% positive tests - too many positive tests (should be less than 3%)
80% ICU occupancy (too high)
311 new cases per million per day (worst in the country!)

Above makes the state rated uncontrolled spread.


FL gets a good score on how the disease is spreading:

But rolling death average highest in country as well, and stable at about 170 per day.

Worst class grades for able to handle spread (resources are strained):

80% ICU occupancy (also above)
61% bed occupancy (normal)
Only Nevada and Mississippi have more hospitalized per million.

Worse case grades for testing enough as well...

Overall, a pretty mixed bag - cases going down too slowly, and testing is way behind so it becomes impossible to catch a new outbreak before it spirals back up.

You fellas seem to missing an incredibly important input.

Florida is and has been open all along. With your hysterical fears about Covid, everyone in Florida ought to be dead by now. And while we are building herd immunity, the numbnuts in your state will keep you from ever reopening in any meaningful way.

Good luck!

I was in Manhattan last Friday. A lot of people out and about. Outside dining was packed. Some schools opened up this past week....as usual, Petedito knows not of what he speaks...

This is what you have to look forward to!

https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/19/europe/e ... index.html

TLD:


DC910379-DF5C-4674-9DB4-E33F07D63A36.jpeg

Nope! There was something to see 4 months ago! Good luck down there! This was one month ago. It’s picked up since then. Hopefully it’s sustained. I was there last Friday. People out and about...



My son and his friends were at Bohemian recently also.

[RedFromMI]

Maybe someone should explain to PB that to get to herd immunity in Florida would mean upping the infection rates big time...

They are NOWHERE close to herd immunity (60% to 80% necessary). They are not close to passing New York, which might be at 25% or so now...

[Bart]

Maybe someone should explain to PB that to get to herd immunity in Florida would mean upping the infection rates big time...

They are NOWHERE close to herd immunity (60% to 80% necessary). They are not close to passing New York, which might be at 25% or so now...

You are assuming there is no cross reactivity in Memory T cells from previous corona virus infections. A assumption that is currently being challenged with data that suggests otherwise.