All things CoronaVirus

[Peter Brown]

Florida reported #Covid deaths

Fri. August 7: 180
Fri. August 14: 229
Fri. August 21: 121
Today: 89

Virus gonna virus. And when virus is done virusing, it’s done.

Cry more, libs.

202 in FL on 9/9. 205 on 9/10. 181 on 9/11

FL 7 day average is 107 and rising. Was 38 on 6/30 when Petey first told us it was dying out.

Virus is still not listening to Petey.

#peteyisamoron

yup.

Waking on MD explainers. Tic toc tic toc.

8B47EA81-E9D2-441D-9D28-41054E0B2163.jpeg (120.33 KiB) Viewed 803 times

[MDlaxfan76]

About 2 minutes in you get a sense of who supports Trump and why this pandemic will continue to rage through America.

https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/202 ... tn-vpx.cnn

MD is our new expert on masks, so I thought I'd ask him to explain this graph please:

Masks.jpg

I'll wait.

please provide the source.

Those graphs are taken from Worldometer. May I add a few more so you can help us on the efficacy of masks when it comes to Covid?

France....voila!



France.jpg



California...surf's up!



CA.jpg



Do masks work or not MD??!?!

I don't see these graphs (with the indications re masks) on worldometer...could you provide a link please?

again, the prior one clearly had false information, so I'd be surprised to see that it came from worldometer.

Again, still waiting for your links.

Your very first graph posted included demonstrably false information.
So, what's your actual source?

[Peter Brown]

About 2 minutes in you get a sense of who supports Trump and why this pandemic will continue to rage through America.

https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/202 ... tn-vpx.cnn

MD is our new expert on masks, so I thought I'd ask him to explain this graph please:

Masks.jpg

I'll wait.

please provide the source.

Those graphs are taken from Worldometer. May I add a few more so you can help us on the efficacy of masks when it comes to Covid?

France....voila!

France.jpg

California...surf's up!

CA.jpg

Do masks work or not MD??!?!

I don't see these graphs (with the indications re masks) on worldometer...could you provide a link please?

again, the prior one clearly had false information, so I'd be surprised to see that it came from worldometer.

Again, still waiting for your links.

Your very first graph posted included demonstrably false information.
So, what's your actual source?

Are you claiming the 5 graphs are incorrect? The only 'mistake' you found isn't a mistake but an interpretation of data...Honolulu is 33% of Hawaii's population. Stop beating around the bush looking for nits...attack all five graphs presented to you that show that masks don't do anything. C'mon!!

Also, this from the CDC...explain!

Masks CDC.jpg (130.71 KiB) Viewed 779 times

I'm no expert, but wouldn't a fire particle be larger than an atomized breath droplet?

You can do it!

[MDlaxfan76]

nope, the 'mistake' was that even Honolulu, much less Hawaii, had never imposed an outdoor mask mandate. The Mayor had proposed it, but it wasn't implemented. By the end of July, he turned to a focus on bars etc as cases began to rise.

So, where are you getting your "graphs", Petey?

PS, universal outdoor mask mandates aren't necessary.
Masks ARE necessary in crowded situations and indoor situations, indeed any instance where social distancing isn't feasible.

[RedFromMI]

A comparison between NYC and Madrid from my Twitter feed this morning:

From Harvard Professor Miguel Hernan (Kolokotrones Professor of Biostatistics and Epidemiology): https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/miguel-hernan/

1/
Look at the shape of these curves.

New York and Madrid had similar epidemics until they spectacularly diverged.

In March, both cities were caught by surprise and shut down because of #COVID19.

In September, the situation is under control in NY and alarming in Madrid.

Why?

2/
Let’s start with the similarities: two big, dense cities with a large network of public transit and lots of visitors.

An explosive outbreak of #SARSCOV2 overwhelmed their contact tracing system and their hospitals. A lockdown was required to reduce the public health disaster.

3/
By June, both places had succeeded in bringing down the number of new cases. That's precisely what lockdowns do.

In July, new cases started to increase in Madrid until reaching one of the highest incidences in Europe.

New York has not seen any increase in new cases yet.

4/
We could argue that number of new #COVID19 cases isn't the best metric for the severity of the #SARSCOV2 epidemic. Perhaps most cases are asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic?

Let's then look at hospital occupation. No problem in New York. Serious trouble brewing in Madrid.

5/
So what happened?

#NewYork and #Madrid had significantly different responses in terms of contact tracing, number of tests, and speed of reopening.

Let’s review each of these elements.

This comparison is a case study on epidemic management in hub cities around the world.

6/
CONTACT TRACING
New York state aimed at 30 contact tracers per 100,000 people before reopening. Minimum.

That translates into 6000 contract tracers in New York and 2000 in Madrid.

Madrid had about 200 contact tracers in July (maybe 700 now). An order of magnitude difference.

7/
TESTING
In April, >70% of PCRs were positive in both New York and Madrid.

New York aimed at achieving <5% positivity before reopening. It is now 1-2%.
https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-goals.page

Positivity in Madrid is ~20% and increasing since July. That is, not nearly enough tests are done.

8/
SPEED OF REOPENING

Let's focus on indoor dining, a vital economic activity in both #NewYork and #Madrid, and arguably one of the main sources of transmission of the #coronavirus.

9/
Indoor dining in New York is CLOSED.

It'll open on September 30 at 25% capacity (50% on November 1) with

- NO bar service.
- Strict protocols
- Phone number to report violations
- Deployment of hundreds of enforcement personnel to ensure compliance
https://forward.ny.gov/nyc-indoor-dining

10/
Indoor dining in Madrid was OPEN at 60% capacity in June.

Bar service opened too.

Protocols weren't aggressively enforced.

Since June it has been easy to find crowded bars and tables. The contrast with NY was striking as anyone spending time in both places can tell you.

11/
Contact tracing, testing, and speed of reopening differed dramatically between #NewYork and #Madrid.

New York opened the economy without overwhelming the hospitals and confirmed its credentials as a serious place to do business.

By simply doing what experts say since March.

12/
A colleague asked whether New York may have reached "herd immunity" whereas Madrid has not. That'd explain the low number of cases in NY.

Unlikely. Based on the available seroprevalence studies, both places had a similar % of population who developed antibodies to #SARSCOV2.

13/
Of course, bad luck can never be ruled out in epidemics.
A spark at the right time may ignite a wildfire in one place but not another.

But bad luck seems a poor explanation for the NY-Madrid differences after comparing their testing, contact tracing, and reopening policies.

[MDlaxfan76]

on the cloth masks, the primary benefit of these masks is to prevent one's own spread of droplets to others, and vice versa for them to catch their own droplets thereby protecting you.

Cloth masks are not very effective at protecting us from infectious a-holes who refuse to wear a mask and get close to us. Get it?

They also won't do much to protect you from smoke inhalation.

If your intent is to protect yourself from smoke or Covid, in a high risk situation, wear a higher grade mask and have eye shields.

[RedFromMI]

on the cloth masks, the primary benefit of these masks is to prevent one's own spread of droplets to others, and vice versa for them to catch their own droplets thereby protecting you.

Cloth masks are not very effective at protecting us from infectious a-holes who refuse to wear a mask and get close to us. Get it?

They also won't do much to protect you from smoke inhalation.

If your intent is to protect yourself from smoke or Covid, wear a higher grade mask and have eye shields.

That is why I have KN95s for teaching. Protection both ways with classes meeting in person.

[Brooklyn]

Canada reports zero COVID-19 deaths for first time since March


TORONTO (Reuters) - Canada reported zero COVID-19 deaths in the past 24 hours for the first time since March 15, according to public health agency data released late on Friday.

Canada’s death toll from the pandemic stood at 9,163 as of Sept. 11, the same as the number of the deaths reported on Sept. 10, government data showed. The number of positive cases rose by 702 to 135,626 on Sept. 11 from the previous day, the data showed.

With most provinces easing lockdown restrictions and as schools reopen for in-person classes, Canada’s infections have seen a mild pick-up in recent days. Authorities have been on high alert to avoid fresh outbreaks, and provinces including British Columbia have imposed new curbs to tackle the spread of the virus.

Still, Canada’s situation looks relatively healthy compared to its southern neighbor. Across the border in the United States, more than 190,000 people have died from the pandemic and more than 6.38 million people have been infected.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKBN26301J





Our deluded pal Petey still believes tRUMP has done a better job of protecting the public from this menace than anyone else.

[ardilla secreta]

And an assist goes to the closed border with the meth lab downstairs.

Build the wall.

[Typical Lax Dad]

on the cloth masks, the primary benefit of these masks is to prevent one's own spread of droplets to others, and vice versa for them to catch their own droplets thereby protecting you.

Cloth masks are not very effective at protecting us from infectious a-holes who refuse to wear a mask and get close to us. Get it?

They also won't do much to protect you from smoke inhalation.

If your intent is to protect yourself from smoke or Covid, wear a higher grade mask and have eye shields.

That is why I have KN95s for teaching. Protection both ways with classes meeting in person.

My wife has a N95 for teaching. The in person sessions are concerning for a good segment of of the teaching population at her school.

[Typical Lax Dad]

A comparison between NYC and Madrid from my Twitter feed this morning:

From Harvard Professor Miguel Hernan (Kolokotrones Professor of Biostatistics and Epidemiology): https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/miguel-hernan/

1/
Look at the shape of these curves.

New York and Madrid had similar epidemics until they spectacularly diverged.

In March, both cities were caught by surprise and shut down because of #COVID19.

In September, the situation is under control in NY and alarming in Madrid.

Why?

2/
Let’s start with the similarities: two big, dense cities with a large network of public transit and lots of visitors.

An explosive outbreak of #SARSCOV2 overwhelmed their contact tracing system and their hospitals. A lockdown was required to reduce the public health disaster.

3/
By June, both places had succeeded in bringing down the number of new cases. That's precisely what lockdowns do.

In July, new cases started to increase in Madrid until reaching one of the highest incidences in Europe.

New York has not seen any increase in new cases yet.

4/
We could argue that number of new #COVID19 cases isn't the best metric for the severity of the #SARSCOV2 epidemic. Perhaps most cases are asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic?

Let's then look at hospital occupation. No problem in New York. Serious trouble brewing in Madrid.

5/
So what happened?

#NewYork and #Madrid had significantly different responses in terms of contact tracing, number of tests, and speed of reopening.

Let’s review each of these elements.

This comparison is a case study on epidemic management in hub cities around the world.

6/
CONTACT TRACING
New York state aimed at 30 contact tracers per 100,000 people before reopening. Minimum.

That translates into 6000 contract tracers in New York and 2000 in Madrid.

Madrid had about 200 contact tracers in July (maybe 700 now). An order of magnitude difference.

7/
TESTING
In April, >70% of PCRs were positive in both New York and Madrid.

New York aimed at achieving <5% positivity before reopening. It is now 1-2%.
https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-goals.page

Positivity in Madrid is ~20% and increasing since July. That is, not nearly enough tests are done.

8/
SPEED OF REOPENING

Let's focus on indoor dining, a vital economic activity in both #NewYork and #Madrid, and arguably one of the main sources of transmission of the #coronavirus.

9/
Indoor dining in New York is CLOSED.

It'll open on September 30 at 25% capacity (50% on November 1) with

- NO bar service.
- Strict protocols
- Phone number to report violations
- Deployment of hundreds of enforcement personnel to ensure compliance
https://forward.ny.gov/nyc-indoor-dining

10/
Indoor dining in Madrid was OPEN at 60% capacity in June.

Bar service opened too.

Protocols weren't aggressively enforced.

Since June it has been easy to find crowded bars and tables. The contrast with NY was striking as anyone spending time in both places can tell you.

11/
Contact tracing, testing, and speed of reopening differed dramatically between #NewYork and #Madrid.

New York opened the economy without overwhelming the hospitals and confirmed its credentials as a serious place to do business.

By simply doing what experts say since March.

12/
A colleague asked whether New York may have reached "herd immunity" whereas Madrid has not. That'd explain the low number of cases in NY.

Unlikely. Based on the available seroprevalence studies, both places had a similar % of population who developed antibodies to #SARSCOV2.

13/
Of course, bad luck can never be ruled out in epidemics.
A spark at the right time may ignite a wildfire in one place but not another.

But bad luck seems a poor explanation for the NY-Madrid differences after comparing their testing, contact tracing, and reopening policies.

So Petedito is wrong about masks leading to more cases?

[Typical Lax Dad]

nope, the 'mistake' was that even Honolulu, much less Hawaii, had never imposed an outdoor mask mandate. The Mayor had proposed it, but it wasn't implemented. By the end of July, he turned to a focus on bars etc as cases began to rise.

So, where are you getting your "graphs", Petey?

PS, universal outdoor mask mandates aren't necessary.
Masks ARE necessary in crowded situations and indoor situations, indeed any instance where social distancing isn't feasible.

Masks outside are an overkill unless it’s a mass gathering with people in close proximity.

[RedFromMI]

How often is PB wrong?

Much more often than not!

[ggait]

Red -- that NY/Madrid comparison is really interesting. Thanks for posting.

There's some small but concerning data coming out of France and Spain right now. They could get smacked again later in the Fall.

And what about NY!!!!

The USA's early basket case is now the stud when it comes to Covid. A lot of lessons to be learned there.

[ggait]

For Covid, cloth/regular masks are good for controlling the EXHALE. You don't get my germs.

Not so good for the INHALE. To keep from BREATHING IN smoke or Covid particles, you need an N95.

Of course, narcissist Petey doesn't give a shirt about infecting other folks. Do unto others so long as they don't do unto you.

#peteyisamoron

[Typical Lax Dad]

For Covid, cloth/regular masks are good for controlling the EXHALE. You don't get my germs.

Not so good for the INHALE. To keep from BREATHING IN smoke or Covid particles, you need an N95.

Of course, narcissist Petey doesn't give a shirt about infecting other folks. Do unto others so long as they don't do unto you.

#peteyisamoron

I can’t believe Dr. Fauci didn’t know that.... Petedito should replace him.

[wgdsr]

nope, the 'mistake' was that even Honolulu, much less Hawaii, had never imposed an outdoor mask mandate. The Mayor had proposed it, but it wasn't implemented. By the end of July, he turned to a focus on bars etc as cases began to rise.

So, where are you getting your "graphs", Petey?

PS, universal outdoor mask mandates aren't necessary.
Masks ARE necessary in crowded situations and indoor situations, indeed any instance where social distancing isn't feasible.

Masks outside are an overkill unless it’s a mass gathering with people in close proximity.

well, yeah. but the reality of daily life, the whole everything about what's gone down puts this all in the washing machine.

what happens when 5 people descend in your space and you don't have your mask on quick enough? the amount of regulatory rules and exceptions you'd need to put in place are enormous, even to follow the science. many/most don't make sense given what's allowed and what's not.

what should be in our best interests should be people doing what's in our best interests, and being informed. people and legislators included. sadly, that is just... not... the... case.

[wgdsr]

Red -- that NY/Madrid comparison is really interesting. Thanks for posting.

There's some small but concerning data coming out of France and Spain right now. They could get smacked again later in the Fall.

And what about NY!!!!

The USA's early basket case is now the stud when it comes to Covid. A lot of lessons to be learned there.

ny has made a choice on covid. health vs economy. red's author points out a number of correct factual differences. the contact tracing looks superb.

that indiv also throws one out there... ny opened up its economy... that is clearly debatable. imo, they clearly haven't.
they made that choice. and are still making it. any individual can call that as a win or accumulating loss, given everything and their thoughts on it.

as far as france and spain... could be much younger people, could be more sensitive tests... but the next 2-3 weeks will tell if they're in a new real situation, not later this fall. their mobility is 80-90%. with cases rising. maybe not a phenomenal formula.

[a fan]

I'm no expert, but wouldn't a fire particle be larger than an atomized breath droplet?

Great. So demand a new law to ban the use of these pointless masks during any and all surgeries, dental work, and doctor visits.

This is how stupid our nation has becomes.

Of course masks help, Pete. Stop pretending that you're this stupid.

So for example, in Denver? Masks are mandatory in public.

For one, that doesn't mean people are following the mandate. Any visit to a local park will tell you that story. And of course, when folks visit someone's home for a BBQ or a beer.

And then there's restaurants......people take them off when eating, obviously.

We know masks work. If we didn't, doctors, surgeons, and dentists wouldn't bother blowing millions of dollars on them. They reduce the spread of viruses and diseases. Are they perfect? Do the eliminate the threat? No and nope. No one is claiming they do. Same thing with seatbelts...they don't eliminate risk of driving....they simply make it more likely that you'll survive an accident. This is right up there with: yes, water is wet.


So.....just stop. The ENTIRE reason this is yet another on the every growing list of fake American issues is Trump.

[wgdsr]

mask debate is picking up steam after it looked like it was on life support.

we may need to get a mask on the fires and embers out west to settle this.

edit: pb, you do need to source graphs to continue in good faith.