All things CoronaVirus

[Brooklyn]

well, we'll just need to disagree on W.
I'm all for the buck stops here responsibility and humility, but I reject blaming Presidents for everything that happens.

We do agree that the economy was moving in a solid direction during Obama's tenure and that Trump inherited that momentum. And we do agree that some right wingers are quite delusional in their lack of recognition of such.

I'm actually not so sure that the economy was exactly healthy though, as like you I suspect, the concentration of wealth very much continued during Obama's tenure. Do we blame him for that? I don't. Why? Because I don't think he was actively working to make that happen, indeed he would have preferred the opposite, and he, like any other President, is constrained in how much they can actually do themselves.

I look at a combination of what happens during a President's tenure, sure, but I also look at what choices they make, their intent behind such choices, etc. I recognize that much of what happens is not actually in their control, powerful as they may be.

BTW, some (including Trump) have already tried to blame Covid on Obama...

It is a matter of record as I have previously documented that Obama tried to get Congress to close all foreign tax havens. This would have significantly reduced the wealth gap and infused capital back into our economy. But it was Republicans in Congress who refuse to give him the legislative reform he sought. Recall that right wing delusionals on LP posted news of the ever increasing national debt on a daily basis. Closing those tax shelters would have killed off the debt but those right wingers continued to cry "Blame Obama" for the debt. Naturally, today they are silent about the debt tRUMP increases every day.

[6ftstick]

well, we'll just need to disagree on W.
I'm all for the buck stops here responsibility and humility, but I reject blaming Presidents for everything that happens.

We do agree that the economy was moving in a solid direction during Obama's tenure and that Trump inherited that momentum. And we do agree that some right wingers are quite delusional in their lack of recognition of such.

I'm actually not so sure that the economy was exactly healthy though, as like you I suspect, the concentration of wealth very much continued during Obama's tenure. Do we blame him for that? I don't. Why? Because I don't think he was actively working to make that happen, indeed he would have preferred the opposite, and he, like any other President, is constrained in how much they can actually do themselves.

I look at a combination of what happens during a President's tenure, sure, but I also look at what choices they make, their intent behind such choices, etc. I recognize that much of what happens is not actually in their control, powerful as they may be.

BTW, some (including Trump) have already tried to blame Covid on Obama...

It is a matter of record as I have previously documented that Obama tried to get Congress to close all foreign tax havens. This would have significantly reduced the wealth gap and infused capital back into our economy. But it was Republicans in Congress who refuse to give him the legislative reform he sought. Recall that right wing delusionals on LP posted news of the ever increasing national debt on a daily basis. Closing those tax shelters would have killed off the debt but those right wingers continued to cry "Blame Obama" for the debt. Naturally, today they are silent about the debt tRUMP increases every day.

There is no TRY. There is only DO!

[wgdsr]

for kicks i'll take the under. they've now gone sufficiently past what my models suggest.

I hope/pray for the under too.

Cases and deaths seem to be going sideways now rather than continuing to drop. And if we just keep going sideways from here with no uptick from cold/flu season, that gets you to 300k by year end (1k per day x 120).

So still 3-5X what was being forecast back in late April, early May at the height of the Re-Open!!! hysteria.

i saw a rep from uhme last night or this morning do a 5 min interview on this. they asked him why the change and he said "they're seeing less adherence to mask use, look at the midwest states". i know they're dumbing it down some (but how does he even know that?), but every interview i see one of these folks make is the same and their projections just have seemed nonsensical. the 60-70k they stubbornly sat on until we were right up against it... we discussed this and i disliked it mostly bc it looked very much like it was affecting policy (it'd been reported repeatedly that the admin was using them). and at that point... nonsensical.

some states have been stubborn on deaths recently relative to cases and that's disconcerting, but there's too much we don't know about tests/cases to draw inferences from that other than if you look at it as black and white -- the bias right now is to the downside, not the upside. imo. and they have dropped about 20% from the peak, if not at the same rate as cases.

as far as cold/flu season, vectors for that are often schools and workplaces, which are more sparse vs a regular year. and it very well could be with the colder weather there'd be less interaction, not more, this year vs warmer months. or that'd be the guess here. i won't get started with t cells and immunity. colleges, i don't know what the population is, but at least there's guardrails there that may have not been there in the summer with "increased" testing on campuses and rules and regs.

of course, feel free to chalk it up to a rando on the internet. fine with that. we'll see!

interesting take on the earlier estimate, but I'm sure you recall that their projections were based on explicit assumptions of maintaining policy discipline and mobility rates...unfortunately not all adopted the policies and there was almost no policy discipline.

we'll disagree on this, but that's a cop out. they had death rates dropping a week out from 2,000 per day to under 500 (it takes longer than a week on average to die of the virus?) and this discussion was in late april. and it wasn't all of a sudden the first week of may that the floodgates were thrown wide open everywhere in the u.s. (even if it were, it takes a while on the lag). cases declined by a third until mid-june. between that, sweden and the interviews, i haven't been able to take them seriously.

I'd agree that their model adjustment did take longer than I thought necessary...but it was super clear what the assumptions were. They had this thing going to near zero in august...but only with universal policy discipline and social compliance through the end of June. It was pretty darn obvious that we weren't following the model's assumptions...that's what I was saying at the time too.

But yup, we knew in mid-late April, much less May, that there were big policy headwinds coming from the Oval Office down to governors. Foot dragging by some, impatience by nearly all states. Far, far from the universal behavior necessary.

yeah, we won't agree. there wasn't some switch turned on that made them miss their models. imo.
they did it all by themselves.
https://citymapper.com/cmi

the u.s. is not doing business as usual. and certainly didn't see some huge spike in may. i don't know all that they put into them, but from what i've seen on wide misses, not anticipating any policy changes as cerrain results rolled in, drawing conclusions on things like "decreased mask adherence" (maybe they've actually polled and filmed a lot of the u.s., so i'll try to reserve final judgment), and from dumbed down interviews what i believe to be rudimentary inputs... i'm where i am with them. their 70k projection wasn't one that included masks, masks, masks for everyone all of a sudden.

anyway. given their now large sized adjustments, i doubt the present admin follows them as much anymore. maybe they've got a new modeler?

The Administration has Dr Atlas...

I think you're asking too much of a medical model to be able to predict the stupidity that ensued politically. They laid out a model, made clear what their assumptions were (which did not include such political stupidity) and indeed fell far short on deaths projected versus what subsequently happened.

Indeed, they seem to continuously miss to the downside, as our social/political choices keep following a worse trajectory than their base case assumptions.

That's not exactly reassuring given this new extended projection.

Let's hope that they've overswung, (out of frustration?) and are assuming much worse political/social choices, or worse impacts, than actually occur. But even as of today, their model is short of the actual #'s rolling in.

and again... these are all your opinions.
as they are mine.

[CU88]

2 weeks after the Sturgis motorcycle rally, South Dakota has the highest positivity rate (20.9%) in the country.

[CU88]

How soon until we see a ceremony in the "Rose Garden" where o d signs an executive order banning the coronavirus?

[MDlaxfan76]

for kicks i'll take the under. they've now gone sufficiently past what my models suggest.

I hope/pray for the under too.

Cases and deaths seem to be going sideways now rather than continuing to drop. And if we just keep going sideways from here with no uptick from cold/flu season, that gets you to 300k by year end (1k per day x 120).

So still 3-5X what was being forecast back in late April, early May at the height of the Re-Open!!! hysteria.

i saw a rep from uhme last night or this morning do a 5 min interview on this. they asked him why the change and he said "they're seeing less adherence to mask use, look at the midwest states". i know they're dumbing it down some (but how does he even know that?), but every interview i see one of these folks make is the same and their projections just have seemed nonsensical. the 60-70k they stubbornly sat on until we were right up against it... we discussed this and i disliked it mostly bc it looked very much like it was affecting policy (it'd been reported repeatedly that the admin was using them). and at that point... nonsensical.

some states have been stubborn on deaths recently relative to cases and that's disconcerting, but there's too much we don't know about tests/cases to draw inferences from that other than if you look at it as black and white -- the bias right now is to the downside, not the upside. imo. and they have dropped about 20% from the peak, if not at the same rate as cases.

as far as cold/flu season, vectors for that are often schools and workplaces, which are more sparse vs a regular year. and it very well could be with the colder weather there'd be less interaction, not more, this year vs warmer months. or that'd be the guess here. i won't get started with t cells and immunity. colleges, i don't know what the population is, but at least there's guardrails there that may have not been there in the summer with "increased" testing on campuses and rules and regs.

of course, feel free to chalk it up to a rando on the internet. fine with that. we'll see!

interesting take on the earlier estimate, but I'm sure you recall that their projections were based on explicit assumptions of maintaining policy discipline and mobility rates...unfortunately not all adopted the policies and there was almost no policy discipline.

we'll disagree on this, but that's a cop out. they had death rates dropping a week out from 2,000 per day to under 500 (it takes longer than a week on average to die of the virus?) and this discussion was in late april. and it wasn't all of a sudden the first week of may that the floodgates were thrown wide open everywhere in the u.s. (even if it were, it takes a while on the lag). cases declined by a third until mid-june. between that, sweden and the interviews, i haven't been able to take them seriously.

I'd agree that their model adjustment did take longer than I thought necessary...but it was super clear what the assumptions were. They had this thing going to near zero in august...but only with universal policy discipline and social compliance through the end of June. It was pretty darn obvious that we weren't following the model's assumptions...that's what I was saying at the time too.

But yup, we knew in mid-late April, much less May, that there were big policy headwinds coming from the Oval Office down to governors. Foot dragging by some, impatience by nearly all states. Far, far from the universal behavior necessary.

yeah, we won't agree. there wasn't some switch turned on that made them miss their models. imo.
they did it all by themselves.
https://citymapper.com/cmi

the u.s. is not doing business as usual. and certainly didn't see some huge spike in may. i don't know all that they put into them, but from what i've seen on wide misses, not anticipating any policy changes as cerrain results rolled in, drawing conclusions on things like "decreased mask adherence" (maybe they've actually polled and filmed a lot of the u.s., so i'll try to reserve final judgment), and from dumbed down interviews what i believe to be rudimentary inputs... i'm where i am with them. their 70k projection wasn't one that included masks, masks, masks for everyone all of a sudden.

anyway. given their now large sized adjustments, i doubt the present admin follows them as much anymore. maybe they've got a new modeler?

The Administration has Dr Atlas...

I think you're asking too much of a medical model to be able to predict the stupidity that ensued politically. They laid out a model, made clear what their assumptions were (which did not include such political stupidity) and indeed fell far short on deaths projected versus what subsequently happened.

Indeed, they seem to continuously miss to the downside, as our social/political choices keep following a worse trajectory than their base case assumptions.

That's not exactly reassuring given this new extended projection.

Let's hope that they've overswung, (out of frustration?) and are assuming much worse political/social choices, or worse impacts, than actually occur. But even as of today, their model is short of the actual #'s rolling in.

and again... these are all your opinions.
as they are mine.

agreed, just as respectfully.
This is a discussion forum, so that's really what we're doing, discussing...in your case and mine, indeed most of us, civilly.

Painfully, not everyone wants to be civil.

[MDlaxfan76]

well, we'll just need to disagree on W.
I'm all for the buck stops here responsibility and humility, but I reject blaming Presidents for everything that happens.

We do agree that the economy was moving in a solid direction during Obama's tenure and that Trump inherited that momentum. And we do agree that some right wingers are quite delusional in their lack of recognition of such.

I'm actually not so sure that the economy was exactly healthy though, as like you I suspect, the concentration of wealth very much continued during Obama's tenure. Do we blame him for that? I don't. Why? Because I don't think he was actively working to make that happen, indeed he would have preferred the opposite, and he, like any other President, is constrained in how much they can actually do themselves.

I look at a combination of what happens during a President's tenure, sure, but I also look at what choices they make, their intent behind such choices, etc. I recognize that much of what happens is not actually in their control, powerful as they may be.

BTW, some (including Trump) have already tried to blame Covid on Obama...

It is a matter of record as I have previously documented that Obama tried to get Congress to close all foreign tax havens. This would have significantly reduced the wealth gap and infused capital back into our economy. But it was Republicans in Congress who refuse to give him the legislative reform he sought. Recall that right wing delusionals on LP posted news of the ever increasing national debt on a daily basis. Closing those tax shelters would have killed off the debt but those right wingers continued to cry "Blame Obama" for the debt. Naturally, today they are silent about the debt tRUMP increases every day.

There is no TRY. There is only DO!

Brook, I think you're just making my point, that Presidents are not all powerful, so when we "blame" them for something really not within their control, we just blow up any room for rational agreement. I object to that, regardless of from the right or the left.

I do hold accountable each player in the process for what they tried to do, what they intended by a particular action, etc. Some do or try things with good intentions, others have only their self-interests at heart...I look to that difference when it comes to actually judging them.

I think the best pushback to me might be in the realm of competence. Just "trying with good intentions" ain't enough if it's fundamentally incompetent.

I think we have a current situation in which many, many decisions are made based upon selfish intentions, or worse, evil intentions to harm others, coupled with gross incompetence. It's a really ugly mix.

[ggait]

Gettysburg College put all their students in quarantine for one week. Kids not allowed to leave their dorm room except to get take away food from the dining hall, go to the bathroom, or go to a Covid test.

Now they are sending 2/3rds of the kids home for the semester. Frosh and new transfers get to stay. For now.

[MDlaxfan76]

Gettysburg College put all their students in quarantine for one week. Kids not allowed to leave their dorm room except to get take away food from the dining hall, go to the bathroom, or go to a Covid test.

Now they are sending 2/3rds of the kids home for the semester. Frosh and new transfers get to stay. For now.

yuck, sending them home to their parents and grandparents...

[youthathletics]

Gettysburg College put all their students in quarantine for one week. Kids not allowed to leave their dorm room except to get take away food from the dining hall, go to the bathroom, or go to a Covid test.

Now they are sending 2/3rds of the kids home for the semester. Frosh and new transfers get to stay. For now.

yuck, sending them home to their parents and grandparents...

They better hope their legal rules and regs. are in order...I have seen a school change their tune AFTER doing something like this.

[kramerica.inc]

Woman tests positive for Corona without being tested...or alive:





Certainly makes you question the numbers that get thrown around here.

[youthathletics]

Woman tests positive for Corona without being tested...or alive:





Certainly makes you question the numbers that get thrown around here.

UFB.

[Brooklyn]

Imagine what our right wing delusional pals would be saying if this had been Obama.

[RedFromMI]

Imagine what our right wing delusional pals would be saying if this had been Obama.

And I believe he tweeted either the day before or just that day about how hard he was at work for the campaign...

[runrussellrun]

Why are PPE's still being manufactured overseas? Didn't tRump invoke the EWP (emergency war powers...... )


To me, this problem lies squareley on the insurance and medical community....the commonsensless types that borrow around like voles on these threads, offering NO solutions.

Let's focus on this issue and leave the political gossip orgasms off the table please.

https://www.fda.gov/medical-devices/per ... 9-pandemic

Non-NIOSH-approved N95 respirators made in China
On April 3, 2020, in response to continued respirator shortages, the FDA issued a new EUA for non-NIOSH-approved N95 respirators made in China, which makes KN95 respirators eligible for authorization if certain criteria are met, including evidence demonstrating that the respirator meets certain standards.
On May 7, 2020, the FDA revised and reissued the April 3, 2020 EUA based in part on concerns raised about the performance of certain respirators authorized under the third criterion of the April 3, 2020 EUA. For example, data from NIOSH testing on some respirators that were listed in Appendix A showed that some respirators failed to meet the expected filtration performance efficiency.
On June 6, 2020, the FDA reissued the Non-NIOSH-Approved Disposable Filtering Facepiece Respirators Manufactured in China by revising the Scope of Authorization such that authorized respirators listed in Appendix A will no longer be authorized if decontaminated. The FDA also reissued multiple decontamination system EUAs, such that, among other things, they are no longer authorized to decontaminate respirators manufactured in China, where applicable.

[runrussellrun]

2 weeks after the Sturgis motorcycle rally, South Dakota has the highest positivity rate (20.9%) in the country.

SO.....how many have died?

exactly


TEST EVERYONE........and watch the morbidity rate get to a whole bunch of zero's after the decimal point.

[MDlaxfan76]

South Dakota has had a steep trajectory on cases and deaths these past couple of months, independent of Sturgis, but coming from a low base back in May.

The first death specifically tied to Sturgis was a couple of days ago...you typically see deaths crank up from an outbreak with a 5 week lag.

But no worries, South Dakota has more big events...

[Typical Lax Dad]

With more spread in September vs May, the post Labor Day bump in cases will be greater than the bump after Memorial Day. Hopefully it’s not too bad and we get it under control before a significant resurgence.

[CU77]

Looking at So Cal beaches on the local news, we're going to have further big outbreaks here ...

[ggait]

[i]
yuck, sending them home to their parents and grandparents[/i]...

No good options. If they stay, the kids will light up the college town.

Big story in the nyt today about how many counties that are home to big colleges are spiking.