All things CoronaVirus

[Typical Lax Dad]

looks like it will be over 420,000 by the end of the year. that's an additional 230k in just 4 months and 3,000 per day in december.

It's just a projection, but IHME UW base case is now 410k deaths by New Years. Back over 2k daily deaths by November 1 and close to 3k daily deaths in early December.

FYI the prior peak was 2,300 at 4/16.

Even more depressing, they predict we will have to start locking down again beginning in October and in December we'll be locked down as much as we were back in April.

Petey says the virus is dying out. The virus says Petey is a moron.

We don’t have the balls to avoid it. When is kickoff this weekend?

[wgdsr]

looks like it will be over 420,000 by the end of the year. that's an additional 230k in just 4 months and 3,000 per day in december.

Remember the good old days when the projections were just 60-70k deaths?

It's just a projection, but IHME UW base case is now 410k deaths by New Years. Back over 2k daily deaths by November 1 and close to 3k daily deaths in early December. FYI the prior peak was 2,300 at 4/16.

Even more depressing, they predict we will have to start locking down again beginning in October and in December we'll be locked down as much as we were back in April.

Petey and Trump say the virus is dying out. The virus says Petey and Trump are morons.

for kicks i'll take the under. they've now gone sufficiently past what my models suggest.

[Typical Lax Dad]

looks like it will be over 420,000 by the end of the year. that's an additional 230k in just 4 months and 3,000 per day in december.

Remember the good old days when the projections were just 60-70k deaths?

It's just a projection, but IHME UW base case is now 410k deaths by New Years. Back over 2k daily deaths by November 1 and close to 3k daily deaths in early December. FYI the prior peak was 2,300 at 4/16.

Even more depressing, they predict we will have to start locking down again beginning in October and in December we'll be locked down as much as we were back in April.

Petey and Trump say the virus is dying out. The virus says Petey and Trump are morons.

for kicks i'll take the under. they've now gone sufficiently past what my models suggest.

I will take the under but I am 50/50 on a shutdown in December. Every effort will be made to keep the economy going over the Christmas season but we will see if the death toll is such that we won’t have a choice.

[wgdsr]

looks like it will be over 420,000 by the end of the year. that's an additional 230k in just 4 months and 3,000 per day in december.

Remember the good old days when the projections were just 60-70k deaths?

It's just a projection, but IHME UW base case is now 410k deaths by New Years. Back over 2k daily deaths by November 1 and close to 3k daily deaths in early December. FYI the prior peak was 2,300 at 4/16.

Even more depressing, they predict we will have to start locking down again beginning in October and in December we'll be locked down as much as we were back in April.

Petey and Trump say the virus is dying out. The virus says Petey and Trump are morons.

for kicks i'll take the under. they've now gone sufficiently past what my models suggest.

I will take the under but I am 50/50 on a shutdown in December. Every effort will be made to keep the economy going over the Christmas season but we will see if the death toll is such that we won’t have a choice.

we'll see. some of the lockdown kings in europe continue to have seeds growing that haven't been quelled at least from a case perspective. starting to show up in the death totals at a couple places.
i heard, though, that we may have a vaccine on november 1.

[Typical Lax Dad]

looks like it will be over 420,000 by the end of the year. that's an additional 230k in just 4 months and 3,000 per day in december.

Remember the good old days when the projections were just 60-70k deaths?

It's just a projection, but IHME UW base case is now 410k deaths by New Years. Back over 2k daily deaths by November 1 and close to 3k daily deaths in early December. FYI the prior peak was 2,300 at 4/16.

Even more depressing, they predict we will have to start locking down again beginning in October and in December we'll be locked down as much as we were back in April.

Petey and Trump say the virus is dying out. The virus says Petey and Trump are morons.

for kicks i'll take the under. they've now gone sufficiently past what my models suggest.

I will take the under but I am 50/50 on a shutdown in December. Every effort will be made to keep the economy going over the Christmas season but we will see if the death toll is such that we won’t have a choice.

we'll see. some of the lockdown kings in europe continue to have seeds growing that haven't been quelled at least from a case perspective. starting to show up in the death totals at a couple places.
i heard, though, that we may have a vaccine on november 1.

November 1! That’s great news for the stock market!!

[MDlaxfan76]

looks like it will be over 420,000 by the end of the year. that's an additional 230k in just 4 months and 3,000 per day in december.

Remember the good old days when the projections were just 60-70k deaths?

It's just a projection, but IHME UW base case is now 410k deaths by New Years. Back over 2k daily deaths by November 1 and close to 3k daily deaths in early December. FYI the prior peak was 2,300 at 4/16.

Even more depressing, they predict we will have to start locking down again beginning in October and in December we'll be locked down as much as we were back in April.

Petey and Trump say the virus is dying out. The virus says Petey and Trump are morons.

for kicks i'll take the under. they've now gone sufficiently past what my models suggest.

I will take the under but I am 50/50 on a shutdown in December. Every effort will be made to keep the economy going over the Christmas season but we will see if the death toll is such that we won’t have a choice.

we'll see. some of the lockdown kings in europe continue to have seeds growing that haven't been quelled at least from a case perspective. starting to show up in the death totals at a couple places.
i heard, though, that we may have a vaccine on november 1.

So hard to tell when folks are being straight or they're being sarcastic.

As you know a lot about this stuff, I assume you aren't suggesting that a vaccine will be distributed sufficiently, beginning Nov 1, to materially change the impact in December and January, right?

[MDlaxfan76]

After spending almost 20 years mourning the 2,700 lives lost on 9/11, we are being told that the 190,000 deaths from COVID-19 is honestly not a big deal.

Did you know that the CDC just released new data that shows that only 6% of the people killed on 9/11 were actually killed by planes? The rest were killed by shoddy building construction and 2-3 other pre-existing conditions, like susceptibility to gravity.

It will be recalled that in those days the right wing delusionals kept repeating that this was not Bush's fault. Instead it was all about "Blame Clinton, Blame Clinton!".

Brook, you've lost me on this one.
I think trying to blame a President, current or prior, for a particular terrorist act is almost unavoidably going to be misplaced.

Sure, the military during Clinton's term may have had a shot at Bin Laden, but there are no sure things in such matters. And sure, Bush had been President for 8 months and the IC didn't detect and prevent the threat in time under his Administration. But seriously, we are going to assign blame on the sitting POTUS for an act of terror? Yes, the buck stops at the top, but let's save our sharp critique for the acts of POTUS for which they really deserve such critique.

[wgdsr]

looks like it will be over 420,000 by the end of the year. that's an additional 230k in just 4 months and 3,000 per day in december.

Remember the good old days when the projections were just 60-70k deaths?

It's just a projection, but IHME UW base case is now 410k deaths by New Years. Back over 2k daily deaths by November 1 and close to 3k daily deaths in early December. FYI the prior peak was 2,300 at 4/16.

Even more depressing, they predict we will have to start locking down again beginning in October and in December we'll be locked down as much as we were back in April.

Petey and Trump say the virus is dying out. The virus says Petey and Trump are morons.

for kicks i'll take the under. they've now gone sufficiently past what my models suggest.

I will take the under but I am 50/50 on a shutdown in December. Every effort will be made to keep the economy going over the Christmas season but we will see if the death toll is such that we won’t have a choice.

we'll see. some of the lockdown kings in europe continue to have seeds growing that haven't been quelled at least from a case perspective. starting to show up in the death totals at a couple places.
i heard, though, that we may have a vaccine on november 1.

So hard to tell when folks are being straight or they're being sarcastic.

As you know a lot about this stuff, I assume you aren't suggesting that a vaccine will be distributed sufficiently, beginning Nov 1, to materially change the impact in December and January, right?

from what i've seen, whatever might get approved whenever... if it actually can be deemed safe and effective being another matter... if it's one of the top 4 or 5, i'd expect 100 million to be available inside 3 months. this is based on media reporting/company releases. not from actually being at the production facility. i'd expect it'd go something to the order of first responders/elite/vulnerable in some order, and then open up to the masses. as it is, there seems to be more than a little trepidation from the masses and to allow others be the guinea pigs, so availability could amplify if that turns out to be the case in real time.
"everybody that wants a test, gets a test. these are the best tests in the world, by far. amazing."

[MDlaxfan76]

looks like it will be over 420,000 by the end of the year. that's an additional 230k in just 4 months and 3,000 per day in december.

Remember the good old days when the projections were just 60-70k deaths?

It's just a projection, but IHME UW base case is now 410k deaths by New Years. Back over 2k daily deaths by November 1 and close to 3k daily deaths in early December. FYI the prior peak was 2,300 at 4/16.

Even more depressing, they predict we will have to start locking down again beginning in October and in December we'll be locked down as much as we were back in April.

Petey and Trump say the virus is dying out. The virus says Petey and Trump are morons.

for kicks i'll take the under. they've now gone sufficiently past what my models suggest.

I will take the under but I am 50/50 on a shutdown in December. Every effort will be made to keep the economy going over the Christmas season but we will see if the death toll is such that we won’t have a choice.

we'll see. some of the lockdown kings in europe continue to have seeds growing that haven't been quelled at least from a case perspective. starting to show up in the death totals at a couple places.
i heard, though, that we may have a vaccine on november 1.

So hard to tell when folks are being straight or they're being sarcastic.

As you know a lot about this stuff, I assume you aren't suggesting that a vaccine will be distributed sufficiently, beginning Nov 1, to materially change the impact in December and January, right?

from what i've seen, whatever might get approved whenever... if it actually can be deemed safe and effective being another matter... if it's one of the top 4 or 5, i'd expect 100 million to be available inside 3 months. this is based on media reporting/company releases. not from actually being at the production facility. i'd expect it'd go something to the order of first responders/elite/vulnerable in some order, and then open up to the masses. as it is, there seems to be more than a little trepidation from the masses and to allow others be the guinea pigs, so availability could amplify if that turns out to be the case in real time.
"everybody that wants a test, gets a test. these are the best tests in the world, by far. amazing."

okay, we're on the same page.
Very unlikely to change the trajectory in Nov, Dec, January, but if we're super lucky to have it actually be a highly effective (and safe) vaccine, and the medical folks can convince people to put away all the distrust of the political weird happy talk as coloring it all and actually convince people to take it, then we could see some serious benefits later in the winter and then spring.

The problem is that we're being told that the virus is going to have a lot of acceleration going into November and it's become super hard to believe the happy talk from the top. And maybe even worse, the credibility of many of the top health officials has been badly undermined by the pressures to satisfy the politics of the White House in power.

sure hope that acceleration of the virus spread doesn't play out

[ggait]

for kicks i'll take the under. they've now gone sufficiently past what my models suggest.

I hope/pray for the under too.

Cases and deaths seem to be going sideways now rather than continuing to drop. And if we just keep going sideways from here with no uptick from cold/flu season, that gets you to 300k by year end (1k per day x 120).

So still 3-5X what was being forecast back in late April, early May at the height of the Re-Open!!! hysteria.

[wgdsr]

i'd examine who is saying what and why they think that before i'd personally subscribe to any acceleration theory.
caution's fine. by influential policymakers, other health "experts".
not seeing anyone that actually "knows" which way this runs and how deep when it does. virus has been slippery.
therapeutic front has seemed encouraging at least. front line people probably know quite a bit more about what's been working much better than when we kicked off. they have to do it anecdotally primarily, but better than nothing if they've seen enough of it.

[Typical Lax Dad]

for kicks i'll take the under. they've now gone sufficiently past what my models suggest.

I hope/pray for the under too.

Cases and deaths seem to be going sideways now rather than continuing to drop. And if we just keep going sideways from here with no uptick from cold/flu season, that gets you to 300k by year end (1k per day x 120).

So still 3-5X what was being forecast back in late April, early May at the height of the Re-Open!!! hysteria.

It’s like the flu.

[wgdsr]

for kicks i'll take the under. they've now gone sufficiently past what my models suggest.

I hope/pray for the under too.

Cases and deaths seem to be going sideways now rather than continuing to drop. And if we just keep going sideways from here with no uptick from cold/flu season, that gets you to 300k by year end (1k per day x 120).

So still 3-5X what was being forecast back in late April, early May at the height of the Re-Open!!! hysteria.

i saw a rep from uhme last night or this morning do a 5 min interview on this. they asked him why the change and he said "they're seeing less adherence to mask use, look at the midwest states". i know they're dumbing it down some (but how does he even know that?), but every interview i see one of these folks make is the same and their projections just have seemed nonsensical. the 60-70k they stubbornly sat on until we were right up against it... we discussed this and i disliked it mostly bc it looked very much like it was affecting policy (it'd been reported repeatedly that the admin was using them). and at that point... nonsensical.

some states have been stubborn on deaths recently relative to cases and that's disconcerting, but there's too much we don't know about tests/cases to draw inferences from that other than if you look at it as black and white -- the bias right now is to the downside, not the upside. imo. and they have dropped about 20% from the peak, if not at the same rate as cases.

as far as cold/flu season, vectors for that are often schools and workplaces, which are more sparse vs a regular year. and it very well could be with the colder weather there'd be less interaction, not more, this year vs warmer months. or that'd be the guess here. i won't get started with t cells and immunity. colleges, i don't know what the population is, but at least there's guardrails there that may have not been there in the summer with "increased" testing on campuses and rules and regs.

of course, feel free to chalk it up to a rando on the internet. fine with that. we'll see!

[MDlaxfan76]

i'd examine who is saying what and why they think that before i'd personally subscribe to any acceleration theory.
caution's fine. by influential policymakers, other health "experts".
not seeing anyone that actually "knows" which way this runs and how deep when it does. virus has been slippery.
therapeutic front has seemed encouraging at least. front line people probably know quite a bit more about what's been working much better than when we kicked off. they have to do it anecdotally primarily, but better than nothing if they've seen enough of it.

Agreed, the therapeutic improvements have been a plus.

But the Washington State model has been pretty darn good, dependent on the assumptions being met or not.

Let's hope that the acceleration does not happen as predicted, but let's understand that they're making those predictions based on known policy moves and mobility rates. Either change and the model says more or less based on those inputs. Certainly has played exactly that way over these quite a few months so far.

Perhaps there will be some intervening factor, but so far none have really broken positively other than the therapeutic improvements.

My own concern about a new, potentially accelerating factor, is how the school aspects, especially at the k-12 level, impact spread rates to more and more families, many of which are multigenerational.

Fingers crossed that the acceleration doesn't happen.

[MDlaxfan76]

for kicks i'll take the under. they've now gone sufficiently past what my models suggest.

I hope/pray for the under too.

Cases and deaths seem to be going sideways now rather than continuing to drop. And if we just keep going sideways from here with no uptick from cold/flu season, that gets you to 300k by year end (1k per day x 120).

So still 3-5X what was being forecast back in late April, early May at the height of the Re-Open!!! hysteria.

i saw a rep from uhme last night or this morning do a 5 min interview on this. they asked him why the change and he said "they're seeing less adherence to mask use, look at the midwest states". i know they're dumbing it down some (but how does he even know that?), but every interview i see one of these folks make is the same and their projections just have seemed nonsensical. the 60-70k they stubbornly sat on until we were right up against it... we discussed this and i disliked it mostly bc it looked very much like it was affecting policy (it'd been reported repeatedly that the admin was using them). and at that point... nonsensical.

some states have been stubborn on deaths recently relative to cases and that's disconcerting, but there's too much we don't know about tests/cases to draw inferences from that other than if you look at it as black and white -- the bias right now is to the downside, not the upside. imo. and they have dropped about 20% from the peak, if not at the same rate as cases.

as far as cold/flu season, vectors for that are often schools and workplaces, which are more sparse vs a regular year. and it very well could be with the colder weather there'd be less interaction, not more, this year vs warmer months. or that'd be the guess here. i won't get started with t cells and immunity. colleges, i don't know what the population is, but at least there's guardrails there that may have not been there in the summer with "increased" testing on campuses and rules and regs.

of course, feel free to chalk it up to a rando on the internet. fine with that. we'll see!

interesting take on the earlier estimate, but I'm sure you recall that their projections were based on explicit assumptions of maintaining policy discipline and mobility rates...unfortunately not all adopted the policies and there was almost no policy discipline.

[wgdsr]

for kicks i'll take the under. they've now gone sufficiently past what my models suggest.

I hope/pray for the under too.

Cases and deaths seem to be going sideways now rather than continuing to drop. And if we just keep going sideways from here with no uptick from cold/flu season, that gets you to 300k by year end (1k per day x 120).

So still 3-5X what was being forecast back in late April, early May at the height of the Re-Open!!! hysteria.

i saw a rep from uhme last night or this morning do a 5 min interview on this. they asked him why the change and he said "they're seeing less adherence to mask use, look at the midwest states". i know they're dumbing it down some (but how does he even know that?), but every interview i see one of these folks make is the same and their projections just have seemed nonsensical. the 60-70k they stubbornly sat on until we were right up against it... we discussed this and i disliked it mostly bc it looked very much like it was affecting policy (it'd been reported repeatedly that the admin was using them). and at that point... nonsensical.

some states have been stubborn on deaths recently relative to cases and that's disconcerting, but there's too much we don't know about tests/cases to draw inferences from that other than if you look at it as black and white -- the bias right now is to the downside, not the upside. imo. and they have dropped about 20% from the peak, if not at the same rate as cases.

as far as cold/flu season, vectors for that are often schools and workplaces, which are more sparse vs a regular year. and it very well could be with the colder weather there'd be less interaction, not more, this year vs warmer months. or that'd be the guess here. i won't get started with t cells and immunity. colleges, i don't know what the population is, but at least there's guardrails there that may have not been there in the summer with "increased" testing on campuses and rules and regs.

of course, feel free to chalk it up to a rando on the internet. fine with that. we'll see!

interesting take on the earlier estimate, but I'm sure you recall that their projections were based on explicit assumptions of maintaining policy discipline and mobility rates...unfortunately not all adopted the policies and there was almost no policy discipline.

we'll disagree on this, but that's a cop out. they had death rates dropping a week out from 2,000 per day to under 500 (it takes longer than a week on average to die of the virus?) and this discussion was in late april. and it wasn't all of a sudden the first week of may that the floodgates were thrown wide open everywhere in the u.s. (even if it were, it takes a while on the lag). cases declined by a third until mid-june. between that, sweden and the interviews, i haven't been able to take them seriously.

[Carroll81]

i'd examine who is saying what and why they think that before i'd personally subscribe to any acceleration theory.
caution's fine. by influential policymakers, other health "experts".
not seeing anyone that actually "knows" which way this runs and how deep when it does. virus has been slippery.
therapeutic front has seemed encouraging at least. front line people probably know quite a bit more about what's been working much better than when we kicked off. they have to do it anecdotally primarily, but better than nothing if they've seen enough of it.

Agreed, the therapeutic improvements have been a plus.

But the Washington State model has been pretty darn good, dependent on the assumptions being met or not.

Let's hope that the acceleration does not happen as predicted, but let's understand that they're making those predictions based on known policy moves and mobility rates. Either change and the model says more or less based on those inputs. Certainly has played exactly that way over these quite a few months so far.

Perhaps there will be some intervening factor, but so far none have really broken positively other than the therapeutic improvements.

My own concern about a new, potentially accelerating factor, is how the school aspects, especially at the k-12 level, impact spread rates to more and more families, many of which are multigenerational.

Fingers crossed that the acceleration doesn't happen.

For PA the Washington model has not been very good.

On 3/30 they predicted 1574 deaths by 8/4
On 4/29 they predicted 2400 deaths by 8/4
On 5/15 they predicted 12420 deaths by 8/4
Total Deaths on Today (9/4) -> 7742

Hoping that the numbers stay closer to actual rather than what they project for the future.

[MDlaxfan76]

for kicks i'll take the under. they've now gone sufficiently past what my models suggest.

I hope/pray for the under too.

Cases and deaths seem to be going sideways now rather than continuing to drop. And if we just keep going sideways from here with no uptick from cold/flu season, that gets you to 300k by year end (1k per day x 120).

So still 3-5X what was being forecast back in late April, early May at the height of the Re-Open!!! hysteria.

i saw a rep from uhme last night or this morning do a 5 min interview on this. they asked him why the change and he said "they're seeing less adherence to mask use, look at the midwest states". i know they're dumbing it down some (but how does he even know that?), but every interview i see one of these folks make is the same and their projections just have seemed nonsensical. the 60-70k they stubbornly sat on until we were right up against it... we discussed this and i disliked it mostly bc it looked very much like it was affecting policy (it'd been reported repeatedly that the admin was using them). and at that point... nonsensical.

some states have been stubborn on deaths recently relative to cases and that's disconcerting, but there's too much we don't know about tests/cases to draw inferences from that other than if you look at it as black and white -- the bias right now is to the downside, not the upside. imo. and they have dropped about 20% from the peak, if not at the same rate as cases.

as far as cold/flu season, vectors for that are often schools and workplaces, which are more sparse vs a regular year. and it very well could be with the colder weather there'd be less interaction, not more, this year vs warmer months. or that'd be the guess here. i won't get started with t cells and immunity. colleges, i don't know what the population is, but at least there's guardrails there that may have not been there in the summer with "increased" testing on campuses and rules and regs.

of course, feel free to chalk it up to a rando on the internet. fine with that. we'll see!

interesting take on the earlier estimate, but I'm sure you recall that their projections were based on explicit assumptions of maintaining policy discipline and mobility rates...unfortunately not all adopted the policies and there was almost no policy discipline.

we'll disagree on this, but that's a cop out. they had death rates dropping a week out from 2,000 per day to under 500 (it takes longer than a week on average to die of the virus?) and this discussion was in late april. and it wasn't all of a sudden the first week of may that the floodgates were thrown wide open everywhere in the u.s. (even if it were, it takes a while on the lag). cases declined by a third until mid-june. between that, sweden and the interviews, i haven't been able to take them seriously.

I'd agree that their model adjustment did take longer than I thought necessary...but it was super clear what the assumptions were. They had this thing going to near zero in august...but only with universal policy discipline and social compliance through the end of June. It was pretty darn obvious that we weren't following the model's assumptions...that's what I was saying at the time too.

But yup, we knew in mid-late April, much less May, that there were big policy headwinds coming from the Oval Office down to governors. Foot dragging by some, impatience by nearly all states. Far, far from the universal behavior necessary.

[njbill]

Well, the heat didn’t get the virus. Maybe the cold will. Ask Dr. Trump. I’m sure he knows.

[kramerica.inc]

"I believe the children are the future:"

https://www.aol.com/article/lifestyle/2 ... /24611459/

However, this week, Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, warned that turning students away worsens the pandemic.

“It’s the worst thing you can do,” he told Today on Wednesday. “Keep them at the university in a place that’s sequestered enough from the other students, but don’t have them go home because they could be spreading it in their home state.”

White House coronavirus task force coordinator Dr. Deborah Birx issued similar advice. “Please isolate at your college,” she said in an Aug. 29 press conference. “Do not return home if you’re positive and spread the virus to your family, your aunts, your uncles, your grandparents."